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Brookdale Senior Living (BKD)
NYSE:BKD

Brookdale (BKD) AI Stock Analysis

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BK

Brookdale

(NYSE:BKD)

57Neutral
Brookdale Senior Living's stock score reflects challenges due to high leverage and net losses, balanced by positive earnings call insights and strategic corporate events. Technical indicators show upward momentum, though valuation concerns persist.
Positive Factors
Demographics-driven demand
Secular tailwinds driven by aging demographics lead to increased demand for senior housing, which is expected to result in occupancy growth and financial improvements for Brookdale Senior Living Inc.
Financial performance
The preliminary results for the first quarter of 2025 show that adjusted EBITDA is expected to exceed management's guidance, with positive adjusted free cash flow anticipated for the quarter.
Negative Factors
Peer comparison
Brookdale is seen as worse positioned compared to peers to benefit from favorable industry trends.
Q4 earnings outlook
The outlook for Q4 is worse with revenues below and adjusted EBITDA 2% below estimates or 7% below excluding the net benefit from lease accounting change related to the pending deal.

Brookdale (BKD) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Brookdale Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBrookdale Senior Living Inc. (BKD) is a leading operator of senior living communities in the United States. The company provides a broad range of services to its residents, including independent living, assisted living, memory care, and rehabilitation. Brookdale is committed to enriching the lives of seniors by offering a variety of care options tailored to meet individual needs, fostering a supportive and engaging environment for its residents.
How the Company Makes MoneyBrookdale Senior Living generates revenue primarily through resident fees for its senior living services. These fees vary based on the level of care and type of accommodation provided, such as independent living, assisted living, or memory care. The company also earns income from ancillary services, including therapy, home health, and hospice services, which are either billed directly to residents or to third-party payers like Medicare and Medicaid. Additionally, Brookdale may engage in partnerships with healthcare providers to enhance service offerings and optimize care delivery. The company focuses on maximizing occupancy rates in its communities as a key driver of revenue growth and profitability.

Brookdale Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Brookdale Senior Living's financial performance indicates challenges with profitability and high leverage. The income statement reflects moderate revenue growth but persistent net losses. The balance sheet shows high debt-to-equity ratios, posing financial risks. Cash flow has improved, but free cash flow remains low, highlighting the need for better financial management.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
The company shows a mixed performance in its income statement. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue of $3.13 billion indicates a moderate growth rate compared to the previous year. However, the company suffers from consistent net losses, with a net profit margin of -6.46% in the TTM. Despite slight improvements in EBIT and EBITDA margins, overall profitability remains a concern.
Balance Sheet
40
Negative
The balance sheet reveals significant financial leverage, with a high debt-to-equity ratio of 6.78 in the TTM. The company's equity ratio has decreased, indicating a reliance on debt financing. Negative stockholders' equity is a potential risk, though some improvement is seen in asset management efficiency.
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
Cash flow analysis shows improvement in operating cash flow, but free cash flow remains low. The free cash flow to net income ratio is positive at 0.08, showing some efficiency in cash generation despite net losses. The increase in free cash flow from the previous year suggests improving cash management.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
3.13B3.01B2.74B2.75B3.42B
Gross Profit
799.31M737.63M513.94M488.58M681.40M
EBIT
46.53M18.41M-85.10M-185.74M9.22M
EBITDA
413.45M370.44M268.79M159.32M374.88M
Net Income Common Stockholders
-201.94M-189.01M-238.34M-99.36M82.02M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
328.80M307.73M447.53M529.42M553.33M
Total Assets
6.34B5.57B5.94B6.41B6.90B
Total Debt
1.63B4.73B4.89B5.23B5.21B
Net Debt
1.32B4.45B4.49B4.88B4.83B
Total Liabilities
6.12B5.17B5.35B5.71B6.10B
Stockholders Equity
212.47M403.66M582.61M697.40M800.43M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
166.18M-70.28M-193.64M-271.29M19.78M
Operating Cash Flow
166.18M162.92M3.28M-94.63M205.65M
Investing Cash Flow
-278.07M-113.36M-67.43M181.46M-425.11M
Financing Cash Flow
142.06M-174.44M100.38M-113.66M382.91M

Brookdale Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price6.24
Price Trends
50DMA
5.81
Positive
100DMA
5.44
Positive
200DMA
6.05
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.08
Negative
RSI
55.42
Neutral
STOCH
56.43
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BKD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.24 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.98, above the 50-day MA of 5.81, and above the 200-day MA of 6.05, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.42 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.43 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BKD.

Brookdale Risk Analysis

Brookdale disclosed 37 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Brookdale reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Brookdale Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
72
Outperform
$7.17B24.4117.90%0.20%15.52%40.29%
71
Outperform
$3.09B34.847.85%5.34%
69
Neutral
$876.74M35.7110.40%27.59%61.97%
NHNHC
68
Neutral
$1.43B14.1710.79%2.60%15.25%51.77%
BKBKD
57
Neutral
$1.25B-65.55%3.95%-5.53%
51
Neutral
$5.31B3.33-39.82%2.92%17.95%1.84%
47
Neutral
$421.64M-17.38%19.19%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
BKD
Brookdale
6.24
-0.72
-10.34%
AMED
Amedisys
94.27
2.48
2.70%
SNDA
Sonida Senior Living, Inc.
22.29
-10.59
-32.21%
NHC
National Healthcare
94.41
5.19
5.82%
ENSG
The Ensign Group
124.87
7.84
6.70%
PNTG
Pennant Group
25.56
4.78
23.00%

Brookdale Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Feb 18, 2025 | % Change Since: 17.74% | Next Earnings Date: May 6, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted significant financial and operational improvements, including strong revenue growth, improved occupancy rates, and strategic portfolio management. Despite challenges with occupancy and natural disaster expenses, the company's proactive measures and strategic initiatives indicate positive momentum. The sentiment is slightly more positive due to the outweighing highlights, but some challenges remain.
Highlights
Strong Financial Performance
RevPAR increased by 6.1% year-over-year, adjusted EBITDA grew over 15%, and adjusted free cash flow improved nearly 40%, turning positive in the back half of 2024.
Occupancy and Engagement Improvements
Weighted average occupancy grew by 140 basis points, and the company saw the strongest fourth quarter move-in volume since 2016.
Associate Retention and Workplace Recognition
Trailing twelve-month turnover improved by more than thirteen percentage points compared to 2023, and Brookdale was named a top 200 most loved workplace by Newsweek in 2024.
Positive Outcomes from Health Plus Program
Residents in Health Plus communities had 80% fewer emergency room visits and 66% fewer hospitalizations compared to seniors with comparable conditions living at home.
Strategic Portfolio Management
Successful lease amendments and acquisitions increased the proportion of owned real estate to over 75% of consolidated units, improving cash flow and liquidity.
Debt Management Success
Addressed more than $1 billion of future maturities, eliminating all 2025 debt maturities and significantly reducing 2026 maturities.
Lowlights
Occupancy Challenges
Occupancy fell below expectations beginning in the second quarter of 2024, impacted by a disruption in lead flow from two largest third-party paid referral partners.
Natural Disaster Expenses
Incurred approximately $3.5 million in natural disaster expenses in the fourth quarter primarily related to hurricanes, compared to no expenses in the prior year fourth quarter.
Continued Fluctuations in Lead Flow
Despite improvements, disruptions in lead flow from third-party referral partners affected move-ins, although efforts are being made to mitigate this.
Company Guidance
During the Brookdale Senior Living fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings call, several key metrics and guidance details were discussed. The company reported a 6.1% increase in RevPAR and a significant 15% growth in adjusted EBITDA for 2024, with adjusted free cash flow improving nearly 40%, turning positive in the latter half of the year. Weighted average occupancy grew by 140 basis points, although occupancy fell below expectations in the second quarter due to disruptions in lead flow from third-party referral partners. For 2025, Brookdale expects RevPAR growth of 4.75% to 5.75% and adjusted EBITDA between $430 million and $445 million. The company has also managed its capital structure effectively, reducing 2026 maturities to $44 million and eliminating 2025 debt maturities. Significant strategic transactions included lease amendments and acquisitions, increasing the proportion of owned real estate to over 75% of consolidated units by year-end. Brookdale plans to continue expanding its Health Plus program, which showed positive health outcomes, and focus on operational excellence and profitable occupancy growth.

Brookdale Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Brookdale Senior Living Appoints New Independent Director
Positive
Apr 24, 2025

On April 23, 2025, Brookdale Senior Living‘s board temporarily increased its number of directors to nine, appointing Joshua Hausman as an independent director effective April 24, 2025. Hausman, with over 20 years of experience in healthcare investment, is expected to bring valuable insights to Brookdale’s strategic goals, including enhancing occupancy and revenue growth. The board’s refreshment, including Hausman’s appointment, reflects Brookdale’s commitment to integrating new expertise and perspectives, aiming to accelerate growth and shareholder value.

Spark’s Take on BKD Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, BKD is a Neutral.

Brookdale Senior Living’s overall score reflects ongoing financial challenges with high leverage and net losses. However, technical indicators and corporate events show positive trends and potential for improvement. The earnings call provided optimistic guidance and effective strategic management, contributing to a moderately positive outlook. Valuation remains a concern, warranting cautious optimism.

To see Spark’s full report on BKD stock, click here.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Brookdale Senior Living Announces Leadership Transition
Positive
Apr 14, 2025

On April 14, 2025, Brookdale Senior Living announced a significant leadership transition, with Lucinda M. Baier stepping down as President and CEO, effective April 13, 2025. Denise W. Warren was appointed as Interim CEO while the Board initiates a search for a new CEO. The company also established an Interim Office of the CEO to ensure business continuity. Additionally, Mark Fioravanti was appointed as a new independent director, while Frank M. Bumstead will not stand for reelection. Brookdale’s preliminary first quarter 2025 results exceeded expectations, indicating strong operational performance and potential for future growth.

Spark’s Take on BKD Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, BKD is a Neutral.

Brookdale Senior Living’s overall score reflects financial challenges marked by high leverage and ongoing net losses. Despite this, the company shows positive momentum in occupancy rates and strategic management, as highlighted in the earnings call. Technical analysis provides mixed signals, and valuation metrics emphasize caution. Improvements in cash management and strategic initiatives are promising but must address profitability concerns for better long-term prospects.

To see Spark’s full report on BKD stock, click here.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Brookdale Senior Living Reports Record Occupancy Rates
Positive
Apr 8, 2025

In March 2025, Brookdale Senior Living reported a significant increase in its occupancy rates, with a weighted average occupancy of 79.5%, marking a 160 basis point rise year-over-year. The month-end occupancy reached 80.9%, the highest in five years, indicating strong performance and counter-seasonal strength. The first quarter of 2025 saw a 140 basis point year-over-year increase in weighted average occupancy, with move-in volumes exceeding historical averages by 12% and move-out volumes improving by 3%, reflecting positive trends in the company’s operations.

Spark’s Take on BKD Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, BKD is a Neutral.

Brookdale Senior Living shows positive operational trends, with improved cash flow and strategic initiatives such as debt reduction and asset acquisition. However, ongoing challenges with profitability and high leverage weigh heavily on its financial performance. The technical analysis indicates bullish momentum, but the negative valuation metrics suggest caution. Overall, while there are signs of improvement, significant financial risks remain.

To see Spark’s full report on BKD stock, click here.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Brookdale Senior Living Reports Strong 2024 Financial Results
Positive
Feb 18, 2025

Brookdale Senior Living announced its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2024, reporting a notable increase in revenue per available unit and occupancy rates compared to the previous year. The company has made significant strides in financial performance through strategic priorities, including lease amendments with Ventas, Inc., refinancing debt, and acquiring leased communities, enhancing cash flow and positioning for growth in 2025.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.