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Couchbase (BASE)
NASDAQ:BASE

Couchbase (BASE) AI Stock Analysis

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Couchbase

(NASDAQ:BASE)

Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
$27.00
▲(10.57%Upside)
Couchbase's stock score is primarily driven by strong technical performance and positive corporate events, such as its acquisition. However, financial performance challenges, including profitability and cash flow issues, along with a negative valuation outlook, weigh down the overall score.
Positive Factors
Acquisition
Couchbase announced that it has signed a definitive agreement to be acquired by Haveli Investments for $1.5 billion in an all-cash deal, representing a 29% premium to the last full trading day prior to the acquisition announcement.
Shareholder Value
The acquisition is expected to provide a positive outcome for shareholders, as BASE shares have struggled to generate meaningful returns since its IPO.
Negative Factors
Competition
Risks for Couchbase include competition from cloud-native platforms and independent database vendors, limited developer awareness/adoption, and lack of profitability.
Market Conditions
Investors have largely been on the sidelines due to mixed business trends around the pace of ARR growth and Capella adoption, recent CFO departure, and difficult market conditions for small-caps.

Couchbase (BASE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Couchbase Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCouchbase (BASE) is a leading provider of modern database solutions designed to support a variety of applications and workloads. The company operates within the technology sector, focusing on delivering a NoSQL cloud database platform that offers high performance, scalability, and flexibility for enterprise applications. Couchbase's core services are centered around its Couchbase Server and Couchbase Cloud offerings, which are utilized by businesses across various industries to enhance their data management capabilities.
How the Company Makes MoneyCouchbase makes money primarily through the sale of software subscriptions and support services. The company's revenue model is based on a subscription-based licensing model for its Couchbase Server product. This includes licensing fees for using its database solutions, which can be deployed on-premises or in the cloud. Couchbase also offers its Couchbase Cloud service, a fully managed database-as-a-service (DBaaS) offering, which generates recurring revenue through monthly or annual subscriptions. Additionally, Couchbase provides professional services, training, and consulting, which contribute to its revenue. Key partnerships with cloud providers and technology integrators enhance its market reach and customer acquisition strategy, further contributing to its earnings.

Couchbase Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jun 03, 2025
(Q1-2026)
|
% Change Since: 31.57%|
Next Earnings Date:Sep 03, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted a strong start to fiscal 2026 with significant growth in ARR and Capella adoption, driven by strategic account engagement and innovation in AI and edge capabilities. However, challenges such as a decline in customer count, professional service revenue, and negative operating cash flow were noted.
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Start to Fiscal 2026
Couchbase, Inc. exceeded the high end of its guidance ranges, with first quarter ARR of $252.1 million, up 21% year over year, and net new ARR of $14.2 million, up more than 300% year over year.
Capella Adoption and Growth
Capella ARR increased over 80% year over year, with a 14% sequential increase from last quarter, driven by migrations, application growth, and strong credit consumption.
Strategic Account Growth
The company capitalized on deepening engagement with strategic accounts, including wins in industries such as energy, defense, healthcare, and sports.
Innovations in AI and Edge Capabilities
Couchbase launched Couchbase Edge Server and enhanced AI capabilities, including high-performance vector database for AI applications.
Negative Updates
Decline in Customer Count
The customer base decreased by 10 net new customers, driven by churn in customers with starter packs, despite healthy gross retention.
Professional Service Revenue Decline
Professional service revenue was $1.7 million, down 27% year over year and 22% sequentially.
Negative Operating Cash Flow
Operating cash flow for the first quarter was negative $6.8 million, with free cash flow at negative $8.6 million.
Company Guidance
During Couchbase, Inc.'s first quarter 2026 earnings call, the company reported impressive results that exceeded expectations across several key metrics. Total Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) reached $252.1 million, representing a 21% increase year-over-year and a 6% rise sequentially, driven by strong momentum in large strategic accounts and Capella adoption. Net new ARR was $14.2 million, showcasing a growth of over 300% compared to the previous year. The company achieved a total revenue of $56.5 million, a 10% increase year-over-year, and recorded a non-GAAP operating loss of $4.2 million. Capella ARR, a key growth driver, surged by 84% year-over-year to $44 million, making up 17.4% of the total ARR. Additionally, the company maintained a dollar-based net retention rate greater than 114% and ended the quarter with 937 customers. Looking ahead, Couchbase, Inc. raised its full-year revenue and ARR outlook, with expectations of continued growth driven by strategic opportunities, Capella adoption, and product innovations.

Couchbase Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Couchbase shows strong revenue growth with a healthy gross profit margin. However, it struggles with profitability and cash flow challenges, and has a negative Return on Equity. The company maintains a low debt-to-equity ratio, indicating prudent financial management.
Income Statement
65
Positive
Couchbase has shown strong revenue growth, with a TTM growth rate of 17.00% compared to the previous annual period. However, profitability remains a challenge with negative net and EBIT margins, reflecting ongoing losses. Gross Profit Margin is healthy at 87.84% TTM, indicating strong revenue retention after cost of goods sold.
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
The company maintains a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.03 TTM, suggesting prudent leverage. However, the Return on Equity is negative due to overall net losses, affecting shareholder value. The equity ratio is stable at 51.09%, indicating balanced asset financing.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Free Cash Flow is declining, with a negative growth rate of 48.81% in the TTM period compared to the previous year. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income ratio is negative, indicating cash flow issues. However, cash flow from financing activities remains positive, providing liquidity.
BreakdownTTMMar 2025Mar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue214.66M209.47M180.04M154.82M123.54M103.28M
Gross Profit188.53M184.51M157.96M134.56M108.76M91.67M
EBITDA-65.84M-70.51M-76.36M-64.18M-53.73M-29.96M
Net Income-71.34M-74.65M-80.18M-68.49M-58.23M-39.98M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets246.96M260.60M247.75M253.04M276.74M117.19M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments141.82M147.17M153.63M168.30M205.95M56.84M
Total Debt3.74M4.32M5.29M7.66M0.0024.95M
Total Liabilities120.81M132.98M117.33M102.78M93.53M103.71M
Stockholders Equity126.15M127.62M130.42M150.26M183.22M13.48M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-28.05M-18.85M-31.60M-46.83M-42.39M-42.00M
Operating Cash Flow-24.17M-15.83M-26.89M-41.19M-41.57M-39.18M
Investing Cash Flow-7.17M-4.85M15.43M-23.37M-92.03M-22.41M
Financing Cash Flow7.49M9.94M12.93M9.71M192.41M80.50M

Couchbase Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price24.42
Price Trends
50DMA
19.51
Positive
100DMA
17.71
Positive
200DMA
17.23
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
1.66
Negative
RSI
75.97
Negative
STOCH
54.53
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BASE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 24.42 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.87, above the 50-day MA of 19.51, and above the 200-day MA of 17.23, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.66 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 75.97 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 54.53 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for BASE.

Couchbase Risk Analysis

Couchbase disclosed 60 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Couchbase reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Couchbase Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
MDMDB
78
Outperform
$17.27B-4.00%19.24%59.66%
ZSZS
72
Outperform
$49.01B-2.68%25.46%49.20%
65
Neutral
$11.62B26.819.82%3.51%-27.28%
65
Neutral
$11.62B26.819.82%3.51%-27.28%
64
Neutral
$4.39B8.73-8.85%-14.03%-167.03%
63
Neutral
$34.07B6.13-11.73%1.80%5.33%-18.31%
56
Neutral
$1.34B-55.90%12.76%16.97%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
BASE
Couchbase
24.43
6.25
34.38%
AKAM
Akamai
79.06
-13.88
-14.93%
AKAM
Akamai
79.06
-13.88
-14.93%
MDB
MongoDB
210.01
-50.09
-19.26%
ZS
Zscaler
315.45
113.82
56.45%
STNE
Stoneco
16.18
3.15
24.17%

Couchbase Corporate Events

M&A Transactions
Couchbase to be Acquired by Haveli Investments
Positive
Jun 20, 2025

On June 20, 2025, Couchbase announced its agreement to be acquired by Haveli Investments for approximately $1.5 billion, with stockholders receiving $24.50 per share in cash. This acquisition, which has been approved by Couchbase’s Board of Directors, marks a significant milestone for the company as it transitions to a privately-held entity. The merger is expected to close in the second half of 2025, subject to customary closing conditions and regulatory approvals. The transaction highlights Couchbase’s strong market position and potential for future growth, as Haveli Investments aims to leverage its operational expertise to expand Couchbase’s market leadership in high-performance database solutions.

The most recent analyst rating on (BASE) stock is a Hold with a $24.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Couchbase stock, see the BASE Stock Forecast page.

Product-Related AnnouncementsShareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Couchbase Reports Strong Q1 Fiscal 2026 Results
Positive
Jun 3, 2025

On May 29, 2025, Couchbase held its Annual Meeting where stockholders elected Class I directors and ratified PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm. They also approved executive compensation and set the frequency of future advisory votes. Couchbase announced its financial results for the first quarter of fiscal 2026, reporting a 10% increase in total revenue and a 21% increase in annual recurring revenue year-over-year. The company launched Couchbase Edge Server and continued to innovate its AI capabilities, receiving industry recognition and relocating to a new global headquarters in San Jose.

The most recent analyst rating on (BASE) stock is a Buy with a $31.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Couchbase stock, see the BASE Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 27, 2025