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MongoDB Inc (MDB)
NASDAQ:MDB

MongoDB (MDB) AI Stock Analysis

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MongoDB

(NASDAQ:MDB)

Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$201.00
▲( 8.15% Upside)
MongoDB's overall stock score reflects strong financial performance and positive recent corporate developments. However, technical indicators show mixed signals, and valuation metrics are weak due to persistent net losses. The earnings call highlights growth but also notes challenges in profitability.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
FQ4 subscription revenue of $531.0 million beat analyst's $503.3 million estimate and grew 19.3% YOY.
Leadership
Appointment of new CFO removes some overhang on the shares.
Strategic Positioning
MDB's latest acquisition of Voyager.ai could further strengthen its strategic positioning in the DBMS market and growing AI presence.
Negative Factors
Investor Sentiment
MDB is removed from the Citi Focus List due to change in investor sentiment post F’4Q25 result and potential growth reacceleration that could take a few quarters longer.
Operating Margin
The weaker operating margin guidance is due to a smaller base of multi-year licenses revenue and increased investments in sales and R&D.
Revenue Guidance
MDB's FY26 revenue guidance disappointed as the company faces a headwind from non-Atlas multi-year renewals.

MongoDB (MDB) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

MongoDB Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMongoDB, Inc. is a leading provider of modern database solutions, primarily through its flagship product, MongoDB, a NoSQL database designed for handling large volumes of data across distributed systems. Headquartered in New York City, MongoDB operates within the technology and software sectors, catering to a diverse range of industries, including finance, healthcare, and technology. The company's core offerings include the MongoDB Atlas cloud database platform, which simplifies the deployment and management of MongoDB databases across major cloud providers, and various support and consulting services to help organizations optimize their database performance.
How the Company Makes MoneyMongoDB generates revenue through a subscription-based model, primarily driven by its cloud-based database platform, MongoDB Atlas. Customers pay for access to the platform, which provides scalable and secure database management solutions. Additionally, MongoDB offers enterprise-grade licenses for on-premises deployments and professional services, including consulting and training, which contribute to its revenue streams. The company has established partnerships with major cloud providers like Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud, enhancing its distribution channels and enabling customers to integrate MongoDB into their existing cloud infrastructure. MongoDB's revenue is also supported by its extensive developer community, which drives adoption and expands its market reach.

MongoDB Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Total Customers
Total Customers
Tracks the total number of customers using MongoDB's services, indicating market penetration and adoption rate, which are crucial for long-term growth and competitive positioning.
Chart InsightsMongoDB's customer base has shown consistent growth, reaching over 54,500 by the end of 2024, driven by the success of Atlas, which now represents 71% of total revenue. The latest earnings call highlights a strategic focus on expanding AI capabilities through the Voyage AI acquisition, which could further enhance customer engagement. However, challenges with non-Atlas revenue and a projected decline in operating margins due to increased R&D and marketing investments may impact profitability, underscoring the importance of Atlas's continued growth to offset these pressures.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

MongoDB Financial Statement Overview

Summary
MongoDB shows strong revenue growth and improved cash flow generation, which are positive indicators of operational efficiency. Despite these strengths, persistent net losses and negative ROE highlight challenges in profitability. The improved balance sheet with reduced leverage and a strong equity base supports its financial stability.
Income Statement
75
Positive
MongoDB demonstrates robust revenue growth with a TTM revenue increase of approximately 19.2% from 2024 to 2025. However, the company continues to report net losses, evident in a negative net profit margin and EBIT margin. The gross profit margin remains strong at 73.2% in the TTM period, indicating efficient cost management relative to revenue.
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a strong equity position with an equity ratio of 81.1%, highlighting financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio has significantly improved due to reduced debt levels, enhancing the company's leverage profile. Return on equity remains negative due to net losses, signaling underperformance in generating shareholder returns.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
MongoDB displays a positive trend in free cash flow, with a remarkable growth rate of 27.0% in the TTM period, signaling improved cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is positive, suggesting that cash flow generation is better than reported earnings, which is favorable for financial health.
Breakdown
Mar 2025Mar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022Mar 2021
Income StatementTotal Revenue
2.01B1.68B1.28B873.78M590.38M
Gross Profit
1.47B1.26B934.74M614.29M413.30M
EBIT
-216.06M-233.73M-346.65M-289.36M-209.30M
EBITDA
-96.69M-122.34M-294.27M-267.12M-186.03M
Net Income Common Stockholders
-129.07M-176.60M-345.40M-306.87M-266.94M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
2.34B2.02B1.84B1.83B957.74M
Total Assets
3.43B2.87B2.59B2.45B1.41B
Total Debt
36.50M1.23B1.18B1.18B979.17M
Net Debt
-453.63M424.72M729.00M709.41M549.47M
Total Liabilities
648.07M1.80B1.85B1.78B1.41B
Stockholders Equity
2.78B1.07B739.51M666.70M-5.03M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
120.64M115.40M-20.21M-1.09M-54.45M
Operating Cash Flow
150.19M121.48M-12.97M6.98M-42.67M
Investing Cash Flow
-657.44M188.02M-33.31M-852.14M-262.66M
Financing Cash Flow
202.06M38.24M30.20M890.89M27.58M

MongoDB Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price185.85
Price Trends
50DMA
176.51
Positive
100DMA
216.42
Negative
200DMA
246.80
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
3.45
Negative
RSI
53.83
Neutral
STOCH
29.97
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MDB, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 185.85 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 182.15, above the 50-day MA of 176.51, and below the 200-day MA of 246.80, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 3.45 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.83 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.97 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MDB.

MongoDB Risk Analysis

MongoDB disclosed 67 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. MongoDB reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

MongoDB Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
79
Outperform
$16.20B26.7919.89%5.61%26.65%
71
Outperform
$11.27B26.009.82%3.51%-27.28%
69
Neutral
$833.52M-18.61%4.11%-935.85%
MDMDB
66
Neutral
$15.41B-6.70%19.22%28.46%
65
Neutral
$988.94M-57.86%16.35%14.27%
61
Neutral
$11.29B10.07-7.05%2.96%7.47%-10.75%
57
Neutral
$7.45B-34.18%24.11%21.87%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
MDB
MongoDB
185.85
-163.89
-46.86%
AKAM
Akamai
75.84
-18.30
-19.44%
FFIV
F5 Networks
282.10
112.20
66.04%
YEXT
Yext
6.59
1.43
27.71%
CFLT
Confluent
21.84
-8.31
-27.56%
BASE
Couchbase
18.32
-8.22
-30.97%

MongoDB Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Mar 05, 2025
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: -29.64%|
Next Earnings Date:Jun 04, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
MongoDB had a strong quarter with significant revenue growth and an increase in customer base, particularly in Atlas. However, challenges with non-Atlas revenue and a projected decline in operating margin due to strategic investments present concerns. The sentiment reflects a balanced outlook with both positive achievements and notable challenges.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Revenue and Growth
MongoDB generated revenue of $548.4 million in Q4, a 20% year-over-year increase, and crossed the $2 billion revenue mark for the full year, growing 19% year-over-year.
Atlas Revenue Growth
Atlas revenue grew 24% year-over-year, representing 71% of total revenue, and is expected to approach a $2 billion run rate in fiscal 2026.
Customer Growth
The customer base grew by approximately 1,900 sequentially, bringing the total count to over 54,500, with 320 customers having over $1 million in ARR, a 24% year-over-year increase.
Voyage AI Acquisition
MongoDB acquired Voyage AI for $220 million to enhance AI capabilities, particularly in embedding and reranking models, which are highly rated in the AI community.
Negative Updates
Non-Atlas Revenue Challenges
Non-Atlas revenue is expected to decline in the high-single digits for fiscal 2026 due to a $50 million headwind from multiyear license revenue.
Operating Margin Decline
Operating margin is projected to decrease from 15% in fiscal 2025 to 10% in fiscal 2026 due to the decline in high-margin multiyear license revenue and increased investments in R&D and marketing.
Company Guidance
In the Q4 Fiscal Year 2025 earnings call, MongoDB provided financial guidance, revealing a projected revenue range of $524 million to $529 million for Q1 and $2.24 billion to $2.28 billion for the full fiscal year 2026. The company anticipates a non-GAAP operating margin of around 10% for the year, a decline from the previous year's 15%, due to a $50 million headwind from multiyear license revenue and increased investments in R&D and marketing. Atlas, representing 71% of total revenue, grew 24% year-over-year, and MongoDB projects stable Atlas consumption growth for fiscal 2026. The company ended Q4 with over 54,500 customers, including 320 customers with over $1 million in ARR. MongoDB also announced a $200 million stock buyback to offset the dilutive impact of its $220 million Voyage AI acquisition, which is expected to modestly affect operating margins.

MongoDB Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
MongoDB Appoints Michael J. Berry as New CFO
Positive
Apr 28, 2025

On April 28, 2025, MongoDB announced the appointment of Michael J. Berry as Chief Financial Officer, effective May 27, 2025. Berry, who brings over 30 years of experience in the technology and software industry, previously served as CFO at NetApp, McAfee, and other notable companies. His appointment is expected to bolster MongoDB’s strategic and financial objectives, particularly as the company navigates growth opportunities in the software market, including the adoption of GenAI by customers. Berry’s extensive experience in scaling businesses is seen as a valuable asset for MongoDB’s future growth.

Executive/Board Changes
MongoDB Announces CFO Resignation and Transition Plan
Neutral
Apr 21, 2025

On April 21, 2025, MongoDB, Inc. announced the resignation of its Interim Chief Financial Officer, Srdjan (‘Serge’) Tanjga, effective May 8, 2025. The company is in advanced discussions with a qualified candidate and expects to appoint a new CFO within 7-10 days, indicating a smooth transition in its financial leadership.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
MongoDB Acquires Voyage AI to Enhance AI Capabilities
Positive
Feb 24, 2025

On February 24, 2025, MongoDB announced its acquisition of Voyage AI Innovations, a leader in embedding and reranking models for AI applications. This acquisition aims to enhance MongoDB’s capabilities in building trustworthy AI-powered applications by integrating Voyage AI’s technology, which addresses the challenge of AI model hallucinations. By improving information retrieval, MongoDB seeks to empower organizations to confidently apply AI to high-stakes use cases, thereby redefining database requirements for the AI era.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.