BayFirst Financial Corp (BAFN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $27.17M
• Dividend Yield: 4.1%
• Average Volume (3M): 11.15K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.44
• Revenue Growth: 1.63%
• EPS Growth: -508.72%
• Country: US
• Employees: 305
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): -0.69
• Shares Outstanding: 4,110,003
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 16,746
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 11,146
• PEG Ratio: <0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.37
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.31
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.14
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.60
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.78
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -2.45
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 48 Neutral
• Price Target: $6.50 ▼(-14.13% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/04/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/04/26

The score is held back primarily by the TTM swing to losses and ongoing credit/charge-off pressure tied to the legacy unguaranteed SBA 7(a) portfolio, reinforced by weak technical trends (below key moving averages and negative MACD). Offsetting factors include strong current cash generation, moderate (though rising) leverage, and management’s plan to derisk and improve funding costs, plus a relatively high dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Strong cash generation

Sustained positive operating and free cash flow at the TTM level provides structural flexibility to absorb credit losses, fund operations, and support reinvestment or dividend payments. Even with volatility, consistently positive cash generation underpins medium-term solvency and strategic execution.

Healthy liquidity and insured deposit base

High liquidity (>18%) and a largely insured deposit mix reduce funding risk and give management durable capacity to reprice or replace expensive funding. That structural liquidity supports margin recovery and loan growth without immediate reliance on volatile wholesale markets.

Strategic derisking: exit of SBA 7(a) business

Exiting the higher-risk, unguaranteed SBA 7(a) business materially reduces ongoing credit volatility and concentration risk. This strategic pivot toward community banking and loan book runoff creates a more predictable, lower-risk earnings base and supports a clearer path to stable asset quality.

Negative Factors

Remaining legacy SBA credit exposure

A sizable residual unguaranteed SBA balance implies continued credit loss risk and earnings volatility until runoff completes. Expected further charge-offs will pressure profitability and capital metrics over the coming quarters, complicating a reliable return-to-normal credit profile.

Sharp profitability deterioration

A meaningful TTM decline in revenue and a swing to a net loss indicate operating leverage and earnings resilience are impaired. Persistent negative returns make it harder to rebuild capital organically and increase reliance on cost cuts or asset sales to restore sustainable profitability.

Loan portfolio contraction

A shrinking loan book reduces future net interest income potential and makes margin recovery dependent on redeploying liquidity into new, lower-risk loans. Lower earning assets can limit revenue upside and prolong the recovery timeline for core bank profitability.

BayFirst Financial Corp Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

BayFirst Financial Corp. operates as the bank holding company for First Home Bank that provides commercial and consumer banking services for businesses and individuals. The company offers checking and savings accounts, and certificates of deposit. It also provides home loans, including residential mortgages, home equity loans, and home equity lines of credit; and business lending services comprising minority lending programs, PPP loan forgiveness services, SBA loans, and commercial lending services. In addition, the company offers treasury management, merchant, online, and investment services; and credit cards. As of January 26, 2022, it operated seven full-service office locations in St. Petersburg, Seminole, Pinellas Park, Clearwater, Sarasota, Tampa, and Belleair Bluffs, Florida; and 23 mortgage loan production offices. The company was formerly known as First Home Bancorp, Inc. and changed its name to BayFirst Financial Corp. in May 2021. BayFirst Financial Corp. was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Saint Petersburg, Florida.

How the Company Makes Money

BayFirst Financial Corp generates revenue through multiple key streams. The primary source of income is interest income from loans, which includes personal loans, commercial loans, and mortgages. The company earns interest on the loans it issues to borrowers, which is a critical aspect of its banking operations. Additionally, BayFirst generates non-interest income through fees associated with banking services, such as account maintenance fees, transaction fees, and service charges. The mortgage division contributes further revenue through origination and servicing fees, as well as secondary market sales of mortgages. Strategic partnerships with other financial institutions and service providers enhance its product offerings and can lead to additional revenue opportunities. Overall, the combination of interest and non-interest income streams forms the backbone of BayFirst's revenue model.

BayFirst Financial Corp Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are mixed but skew negative due to a sharp TTM profitability deterioration (revenue down ~11.8% and swing to a net loss). The balance sheet is serviceable with moderate leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.39) but rising versus 2024 and returns have turned negative. Cash flow remains a support (TTM operating and free cash flow both strongly positive) though down year-over-year and historically volatile.

Income Statement

Profitability has deteriorated sharply in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), with revenue down ~11.8% and the company swinging to a net loss (-$10.7M) with negative operating profit. This contrasts with the prior annual period (2024), which showed solid profitability (about 10% net margin) and positive operating earnings. Overall, the earnings profile looks volatile: prior years were profitable, but the most recent TTM trend is clearly negative and is the primary driver of the low score.

Balance Sheet

Leverage remains moderate, with debt below equity in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) (debt-to-equity ~0.39), though it has increased versus 2024 (~0.20). Equity is meaningful relative to the asset base, but returns have turned negative in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) (negative return on equity), indicating the balance sheet is currently not being translated into shareholder profitability. Overall, the balance sheet looks serviceable, but the rising leverage and negative returns are notable risks.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a relative strength: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow ($282.2M) and free cash flow ($282.0M) are both strongly positive. That said, both are down year-over-year (free cash flow growth about -13.3%), and cash flow has shown historical volatility (notably negative operating and free cash flow in 2020). Overall, current cash flow is supportive, but the declining trajectory and past swings temper the score.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	104.19M	125.24M	110.85M	66.41M	63.35M
Gross Profit	39.59M	65.73M	68.32M	58.54M	59.55M
EBITDA	-30.83M	25.71M	14.79M	12.01M	16.05M
Net Income	-22.94M	12.60M	5.70M	-349.00K	24.62M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.30B	1.29B	1.12B	938.89M	917.10M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	34.49M	88.94M	102.61M	113.28M	143.00M
Total Debt	34.08M	22.40M	20.96M	37.37M	12.71M
Total Liabilities	1.21B	1.18B	1.02B	847.01M	820.80M
Stockholders Equity	87.57M	110.92M	100.71M	91.88M	96.29M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0.00	388.84M	447.21M	432.19M	482.27M
Operating Cash Flow	0.00	390.53M	454.80M	440.25M	495.39M
Investing Cash Flow	0.00	-515.93M	-641.28M	-510.61M	207.62M
Financing Cash Flow	0.00	144.80M	178.82M	26.67M	-648.66M

BayFirst Financial Corp Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 7.57
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BAFN, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 7.57 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.89, above the 50-day MA of 7.14, and below the 200-day MA of 10.23, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.07 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.56 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for BAFN.

BayFirst Financial Corp Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
HFBL	78 Outperform	$57.42M	11.01	8.21%	3.21%	0.32%	37.93%
OPHC	75 Outperform	$60.55M	5.24	15.03%	―	14.91%	0.81%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
ASRV	66 Neutral	$61.46M	10.96	4.54%	3.87%	6.89%	―
TCBS	55 Neutral	$49.04M	19.79	4.74%	1.10%	12.12%	―
BAFN	48 Neutral	$27.17M	-1.20	-11.14%	4.10%	1.63%	-508.72%

BayFirst Financial Corp Corporate Events

BayFirst Financial Details Strategic Shift in Q4 Results

On January 29, 2026, BayFirst Financial Corp. held a conference call to discuss its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, highlighting the completion of several major strategic actions, including its exit from the SBA 7(a) lending business, sale of substantial 7(a) loan balances, headcount and expense reductions, and a sharpened focus on community banking. For the quarter ended December 31, 2025, the company reported a net loss of $2.5 million, narrower than the prior quarter’s $18.9 million loss, as restructuring charges and loan-loss provisions tied to the legacy SBA 7(a) portfolio declined, even though net charge-offs on unguaranteed SBA loans remained elevated. Loans held for investment and held for sale shrank meaningfully, deposits rose modestly to $1.18 billion with 85% insured by the FDIC, and liquidity exceeded 18%, giving management room to reprice higher-cost deposits and support margin improvement. Net interest margin held relatively stable at 3.58%, noninterest expenses fell sharply quarter-over-quarter after restructuring, and BayFirst’s capital position remained solid, with shareholders’ equity at $87.6 million and a higher allowance for credit losses as the bank continues to work through its shrinking, higher-risk SBA 7(a) loan book while pivoting toward a lower-risk, locally focused operating model.

The most recent analyst rating on (BAFN) stock is a Hold with a $6.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BayFirst Financial Corp stock, see the BAFN Stock Forecast page.

BayFirst Posts Smaller Q4 Loss Amid Ongoing Restructuring

On January 29, 2026, BayFirst Financial Corp. reported a net loss of $2.5 million, or $0.69 per share, for the fourth quarter of 2025, sharply reduced from a $18.9 million loss in the prior quarter and reversing net income of $9.8 million a year earlier, as the company advanced a restructuring plan that improved capital ratios and refocused its business. During the quarter, BayFirst closed the sale of $96.6 million in loans to Banesco USA as part of its September 2025 decision to exit the SBA 7(a) lending business, reduced loans held for investment, achieved organic deposit growth of $12.5 million with 85% of deposits insured, maintained a stable net interest margin of 3.58%, and cut headcount from 299 at the end of 2024 to 144 by December 31, 2025, contributing to a steep decline in noninterest expense and showing progress in derisking its balance sheet and strengthening credit quality, despite a full-year 2025 net loss of $22.9 million driven by lower noninterest income and higher credit loss provisions.

The most recent analyst rating on (BAFN) stock is a Hold with a $7.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BayFirst Financial Corp stock, see the BAFN Stock Forecast page.

BayFirst Financial amends debt terms to preserve liquidity

On December 29, 2025, BayFirst Financial Corp. amended the terms of its $6.0 million 4.5% subordinated notes due June 30, 2031, effective December 26, 2025, so that instead of making cash interest payments, the company will capitalize interest by adding it to the principal balance through June 30, 2026, and, if amounts remain unpaid at that date, may either pay holders an additional 3% of outstanding principal or increase the principal by 3%. As of December 31, 2025, the notes carried a principal of $6.0 million at 4.5% interest and the company also obtained agreement from First National Bankers Bank on December 30, 2025, to defer a quarterly interest payment on a $1.6 million term loan at 6.75% from December 10, 2025, to March 10, 2026, signaling a strategy to preserve liquidity and manage near-term cash outflows by restructuring and deferring interest obligations to creditors.

The most recent analyst rating on (BAFN) stock is a Hold with a $8.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BayFirst Financial Corp stock, see the BAFN Stock Forecast page.

BayFirst Financial Schedules Q4 2025 Results Release

On December 31, 2025, BayFirst Financial Corp. announced plans to release its fourth-quarter 2025 financial results after the market close on January 29, 2026, followed by a management-hosted conference call and simultaneous webcast on January 30, 2026, to discuss the results. The scheduled disclosure and investor call underscore the company’s efforts to maintain transparency with shareholders and the broader market, providing stakeholders with a formal opportunity to assess BayFirst’s year-end performance and outlook in the context of its regional banking operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (BAFN) stock is a Hold with a $8.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BayFirst Financial Corp stock, see the BAFN Stock Forecast page.

BayFirst Financial Exits SBA 7(a) Lending Business

On December 15, 2025, BayFirst Financial Corp. announced the completion of a $94.6 million loan sale to Banesco USA, marking its exit from the SBA 7(a) lending business. This strategic move is part of BayFirst’s efforts to derisk its balance sheet and enhance long-term growth and shareholder value. The sale improves the Bank’s total capital ratio to 10.1% and tier 1 leverage ratio to 6.8%. BayFirst continues to focus on its community bank mission, aiming to expand its presence in the Tampa Bay region through stable banking products and services.

The most recent analyst rating on (BAFN) stock is a Hold with a $8.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BayFirst Financial Corp stock, see the BAFN Stock Forecast page.

BayFirst Financial Reports Q3 2025 Loss Amid Restructuring

On October 31, 2025, BayFirst Financial Corp. held a conference call to discuss its financial results for the third quarter of 2025. The company reported an $18.9 million net loss, largely due to restructuring charges and the sale of its SBA 7(a) loan portfolio to Banesco USA. This strategic shift aims to derisk the balance sheet and focus on sustainable growth through community banking. Despite the losses, BayFirst is optimistic about returning to profitability in 2026 and enhancing shareholder value by strengthening its community banking operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (BAFN) stock is a Hold with a $9.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BayFirst Financial Corp stock, see the BAFN Stock Forecast page.