BayFirst Financial Corp (BAFN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $31.11M
• Dividend Yield: 4.1%
• Average Volume (3M): 11.15K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.51
• Revenue Growth: 1.63%
• EPS Growth: -508.72%
• Country: US
• Employees: 305
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Banks - Regional
• EPS (TTM): -4.66
• Shares Outstanding: 4,110,003
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 16,746
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 11,146
• PEG Ratio: 0.03
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.50
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.44
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.14
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 4.14
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.42
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.96
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 7.08
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 61 Neutral
• Price Target: $8.50 ▲(6.92% Upside)

The score is held back primarily by mixed fundamentals (higher leverage, weaker operating margin trends, and deteriorating free cash flow growth) and a challenging earnings backdrop with losses tied to restructuring. Technicals are neutral-to-weak with the stock below key longer-term moving averages. Offsetting factors include solid revenue growth, a ~4% dividend yield, and the strategic SBA 7(a) exit/loan sale that may improve risk profile, though liquidity-preservation actions add caution.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth Trajectory

A 50.9% TTM revenue gain signals durable top-line expansion across lending and mortgage activities, supporting scale and diversification of interest and fee income. Sustained revenue growth improves capacity to absorb restructuring costs and funds reinvestment in core community-banking initiatives over the next 2-6 months.

Operating Cash Flow Strength

Consistently strong operating cash flow and nearly 1x FCF-to-net income indicate efficient cash conversion from earnings. This durable cash generation supports liquidity, funds core lending and deposit growth, and provides flexibility to execute the strategic pivot away from SBA exposure without immediate capital raises.

Balance-sheet De-risking via SBA Sale

The $94.6M SBA 7(a) loan sale materially reduces concentration and unguaranteed SBA exposure, raising capital ratios. Improved regulatory capital and lower portfolio risk strengthen the franchise's ability to pursue community banking growth and reduce earnings volatility over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Higher Leverage

Rising leverage (D/E 0.57) with falling ROE signals higher financial risk and reduced shareholder returns. Elevated debt levels constrain capital flexibility, increase interest burden, and limit capacity for organic growth or acquisitions, making balance-sheet repair and deleveraging a multi-quarter priority.

Large Net Loss and Restructuring

A sizable net loss driven by a $7.3M restructuring charge reflects a costly business transition away from SBA lending. Such losses erode capital and require several quarters to reverse, delaying return to normalized profitability and pressuring credit metrics and management bandwidth during the strategic reset.

Negative Free Cash Flow Growth

Negative free cash flow growth, even with solid operating cash flow, indicates higher investing or financing outflows and weaker cash available for debt reduction or shareholder returns. Persisting FCF declines can necessitate external financing or covenant concessions, limiting strategic options over ensuing quarters.

BayFirst Financial Corp Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

BayFirst Financial Corp (BAFN) is a financial services holding company based in the United States, primarily engaged in providing a range of banking and financial services through its subsidiary, BayFirst National Bank. The company operates in various sectors, including commercial banking, mortgage banking, and wealth management. Its core products and services include personal and business loans, deposit accounts, mortgage origination and servicing, and investment advisory services, catering to both individual and commercial clients.

How the Company Makes Money

BayFirst Financial Corp generates revenue through multiple key streams. The primary source of income is interest income from loans, which includes personal loans, commercial loans, and mortgages. The company earns interest on the loans it issues to borrowers, which is a critical aspect of its banking operations. Additionally, BayFirst generates non-interest income through fees associated with banking services, such as account maintenance fees, transaction fees, and service charges. The mortgage division contributes further revenue through origination and servicing fees, as well as secondary market sales of mortgages. Strategic partnerships with other financial institutions and service providers enhance its product offerings and can lead to additional revenue opportunities. Overall, the combination of interest and non-interest income streams forms the backbone of BayFirst's revenue model.

BayFirst Financial Corp Financial Statement Overview

Summary

BayFirst Financial Corp demonstrates solid revenue growth and profitability improvements in the TTM period. However, increased leverage and declining cash flow growth present potential risks. The company needs to manage its debt levels and improve operational efficiency to sustain its financial health.

Income Statement

BayFirst Financial Corp has shown a strong revenue growth trajectory, particularly in the TTM period with a 50.9% increase. The gross profit margin remains robust at 49.18%, although it has decreased from previous years. Net profit margin has improved to 7.62% in the TTM, indicating better profitability. However, the EBIT and EBITDA margins have declined compared to the previous year, suggesting potential operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has increased to 0.57 in the TTM, indicating higher leverage compared to previous years. Return on equity has decreased to 8.66%, reflecting reduced profitability on shareholder investments. The equity ratio remains stable, suggesting a balanced asset structure, but the increased debt level poses a risk.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow remains strong, although it has decreased in the TTM. Free cash flow growth has turned negative, indicating potential cash management issues. The free cash flow to net income ratio is nearly 1, showing efficient cash conversion, but the decline in free cash flow growth is a concern.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	90.77M	125.24M	110.85M	66.41M	63.35M	134.09M
Gross Profit	43.61M	65.73M	68.32M	58.54M	59.55M	106.92M
EBITDA	18.20M	25.71M	14.79M	12.01M	16.05M	20.84M
Net Income	8.20M	12.60M	5.70M	-349.00K	24.62M	12.70M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.35B	1.29B	1.12B	938.89M	917.10M	1.54B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	0.00	88.94M	102.61M	113.28M	143.00M	57.76M
Total Debt	71.11M	22.40M	20.96M	37.37M	12.71M	13.63M
Total Liabilities	1.26B	1.18B	1.02B	847.01M	820.80M	1.47B
Stockholders Equity	89.73M	110.92M	100.71M	91.88M	96.29M	71.07M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	97.48M	388.84M	447.21M	432.19M	482.27M	-110.87M
Operating Cash Flow	97.46M	390.53M	454.80M	440.25M	495.39M	-107.82M
Investing Cash Flow	-324.87M	-515.93M	-641.28M	-510.61M	207.62M	-933.38M
Financing Cash Flow	96.81M	144.80M	178.82M	26.67M	-648.66M	985.98M

BayFirst Financial Corp Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 7.95
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BAFN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 7.95 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.86, below the 50-day MA of 8.13, and below the 200-day MA of 11.62, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.12 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 36.38 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.37 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BAFN.

BayFirst Financial Corp Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
OPHC	73 Outperform	$49.94M	3.77	15.03%	―	14.91%	0.81%
HFBL	71 Outperform	$55.25M	11.96	8.21%	3.21%	0.32%	37.93%
ASRV	68 Neutral	$53.37M	10.68	4.54%	3.87%	6.89%	―
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
BAFN	61 Neutral	$31.11M	-2.43	-11.14%	4.10%	1.63%	-508.72%
TCBS	55 Neutral	$49.11M	20.18	4.74%	1.10%	12.12%	―

BayFirst Financial Corp Corporate Events

BayFirst Financial amends debt terms to preserve liquidity

On December 29, 2025, BayFirst Financial Corp. amended the terms of its $6.0 million 4.5% subordinated notes due June 30, 2031, effective December 26, 2025, so that instead of making cash interest payments, the company will capitalize interest by adding it to the principal balance through June 30, 2026, and, if amounts remain unpaid at that date, may either pay holders an additional 3% of outstanding principal or increase the principal by 3%. As of December 31, 2025, the notes carried a principal of $6.0 million at 4.5% interest and the company also obtained agreement from First National Bankers Bank on December 30, 2025, to defer a quarterly interest payment on a $1.6 million term loan at 6.75% from December 10, 2025, to March 10, 2026, signaling a strategy to preserve liquidity and manage near-term cash outflows by restructuring and deferring interest obligations to creditors.

The most recent analyst rating on (BAFN) stock is a Hold with a $8.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BayFirst Financial Corp stock, see the BAFN Stock Forecast page.

BayFirst Financial Schedules Q4 2025 Results Release

On December 31, 2025, BayFirst Financial Corp. announced plans to release its fourth-quarter 2025 financial results after the market close on January 29, 2026, followed by a management-hosted conference call and simultaneous webcast on January 30, 2026, to discuss the results. The scheduled disclosure and investor call underscore the company’s efforts to maintain transparency with shareholders and the broader market, providing stakeholders with a formal opportunity to assess BayFirst’s year-end performance and outlook in the context of its regional banking operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (BAFN) stock is a Hold with a $8.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BayFirst Financial Corp stock, see the BAFN Stock Forecast page.

BayFirst Financial Exits SBA 7(a) Lending Business

On December 15, 2025, BayFirst Financial Corp. announced the completion of a $94.6 million loan sale to Banesco USA, marking its exit from the SBA 7(a) lending business. This strategic move is part of BayFirst’s efforts to derisk its balance sheet and enhance long-term growth and shareholder value. The sale improves the Bank’s total capital ratio to 10.1% and tier 1 leverage ratio to 6.8%. BayFirst continues to focus on its community bank mission, aiming to expand its presence in the Tampa Bay region through stable banking products and services.

The most recent analyst rating on (BAFN) stock is a Hold with a $8.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BayFirst Financial Corp stock, see the BAFN Stock Forecast page.

BayFirst Financial Reports Q3 2025 Loss Amid Restructuring

On October 31, 2025, BayFirst Financial Corp. held a conference call to discuss its financial results for the third quarter of 2025. The company reported an $18.9 million net loss, largely due to restructuring charges and the sale of its SBA 7(a) loan portfolio to Banesco USA. This strategic shift aims to derisk the balance sheet and focus on sustainable growth through community banking. Despite the losses, BayFirst is optimistic about returning to profitability in 2026 and enhancing shareholder value by strengthening its community banking operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (BAFN) stock is a Hold with a $9.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BayFirst Financial Corp stock, see the BAFN Stock Forecast page.