BayFirst Financial Corp (BAFN)
NASDAQ:BAFN
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BayFirst Financial Corp (BAFN) AI Stock Analysis

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BAFN

BayFirst Financial Corp

(NASDAQ:BAFN)

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Neutral 54 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$8.50
▲(4.94% Upside)
BayFirst Financial Corp faces significant challenges, particularly with its recent financial performance and strategic restructuring. The bearish technical indicators and negative valuation metrics further weigh on the stock. However, the company's strategic shift and potential for improved deposit growth offer some hope for future stability.

BayFirst Financial Corp (BAFN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

BayFirst Financial Corp Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBayFirst Financial Corp. operates as the bank holding company for First Home Bank that provides commercial and consumer banking services for businesses and individuals. The company offers checking and savings accounts, and certificates of deposit. It also provides home loans, including residential mortgages, home equity loans, and home equity lines of credit; and business lending services comprising minority lending programs, PPP loan forgiveness services, SBA loans, and commercial lending services. In addition, the company offers treasury management, merchant, online, and investment services; and credit cards. As of January 26, 2022, it operated seven full-service office locations in St. Petersburg, Seminole, Pinellas Park, Clearwater, Sarasota, Tampa, and Belleair Bluffs, Florida; and 23 mortgage loan production offices. The company was formerly known as First Home Bancorp, Inc. and changed its name to BayFirst Financial Corp. in May 2021. BayFirst Financial Corp. was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Saint Petersburg, Florida.
How the Company Makes MoneyBayFirst Financial Corp generates revenue through multiple key streams. The primary source of income is interest income from loans, which includes personal loans, commercial loans, and mortgages. The company earns interest on the loans it issues to borrowers, which is a critical aspect of its banking operations. Additionally, BayFirst generates non-interest income through fees associated with banking services, such as account maintenance fees, transaction fees, and service charges. The mortgage division contributes further revenue through origination and servicing fees, as well as secondary market sales of mortgages. Strategic partnerships with other financial institutions and service providers enhance its product offerings and can lead to additional revenue opportunities. Overall, the combination of interest and non-interest income streams forms the backbone of BayFirst's revenue model.

BayFirst Financial Corp Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 30, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jan 22, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Negative
The earnings call presented a challenging quarter for BayFirst Financial Corp. with significant net losses and restructuring charges as the company transitions away from its SBA 7(a) lending business. While there were positive signs such as an increase in deposit balances and a reduction in net charge-offs, the lowlights, including decreased net interest margin and higher nonperforming assets, were more prominent.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strategic Transition to Community Banking
BayFirst Financial Corp. is exiting the SBA 7(a) lending business, which previously contributed to operating losses, and selling a large portion of this portfolio to Banesco USA. The transition aims to refocus on being a premier community bank in the Tampa Bay area.
Increase in Deposit Balances
Total deposit balances increased by $7.7 million or 0.7% during the third quarter of 2025 and by $59.3 million or 5.3% over the past year to $1.17 billion, with more than 84% of deposits insured by the FDIC.
Net Charge-offs Reduction
Net charge-offs, primarily from unguaranteed SBA 7(a) balances, were $3.3 million, which was a reduction of $3.5 million compared to the second quarter.
Negative Updates
Significant Net Loss
The company reported a net loss of $18.9 million in the third quarter, compared to a net loss of $1.2 million in the second quarter.
Restructuring Charges
A restructuring charge of $7.3 million was recorded, including $2.9 million to write off assets and prepaid expenses related to the SBA 7(a) lending business, and $3.9 million in personnel-specific costs.
Decreased Net Interest Margin
The net interest margin decreased by 45 basis points to 3.61% in the third quarter, impacted by onetime adjustments.
Noninterest Income Decline
Noninterest income was a negative $1 million for the third quarter, a significant decrease from $10.8 million in the second quarter, primarily due to the decrease of gains on the sale of SBA 7(a) loans.
Higher Nonperforming Assets
Nonperforming assets were 1.97% of total assets as of September 30, 2025, up from 1.79% at June 30, 2025.
Company Guidance
During the BayFirst Financial Corp. Q3 2025 Conference Call, CEO Tom Zernick outlined the company's strategic shift to exit the SBA 7(a) lending business and focus on their core community banking model. The company reported a net loss of $18.9 million for the third quarter, a significant increase from the $1.2 million loss in the previous quarter, largely due to a $7.3 million restructuring charge and adjustments related to the sale of a substantial portion of their SBA 7(a) portfolio to Banesco USA. This sale, priced at a 3% discount, is expected to close later in the quarter, though it has been delayed by a federal government shutdown. The company also saw a decrease in loans held for investment by $127.1 million and a slight increase in total deposits by $7.7 million during the quarter. Despite a dip in net interest margin to 3.61%, Zernick expressed confidence in achieving a 4% target by reducing deposit costs and appropriately pricing loans. The company aims for a positive return on assets of 40 to 70 basis points in 2026, supported by a focus on resolving nonperforming loans and improving credit quality.

BayFirst Financial Corp Financial Statement Overview

Summary
BayFirst Financial Corp demonstrates solid revenue growth and profitability improvements in the TTM period. However, increased leverage and declining cash flow growth present potential risks. The company needs to manage its debt levels and improve operational efficiency to sustain its financial health.
Income Statement
72
Positive
BayFirst Financial Corp has shown a strong revenue growth trajectory, particularly in the TTM period with a 50.9% increase. The gross profit margin remains robust at 49.18%, although it has decreased from previous years. Net profit margin has improved to 7.62% in the TTM, indicating better profitability. However, the EBIT and EBITDA margins have declined compared to the previous year, suggesting potential operational challenges.
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
The company's debt-to-equity ratio has increased to 0.57 in the TTM, indicating higher leverage compared to previous years. Return on equity has decreased to 8.66%, reflecting reduced profitability on shareholder investments. The equity ratio remains stable, suggesting a balanced asset structure, but the increased debt level poses a risk.
Cash Flow
68
Positive
Operating cash flow remains strong, although it has decreased in the TTM. Free cash flow growth has turned negative, indicating potential cash management issues. The free cash flow to net income ratio is nearly 1, showing efficient cash conversion, but the decline in free cash flow growth is a concern.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue90.77M125.24M110.85M66.41M63.35M134.09M
Gross Profit43.61M65.73M68.32M58.54M59.55M106.92M
EBITDA18.20M25.71M14.79M12.01M16.05M20.84M
Net Income8.20M12.60M5.70M-349.00K24.62M12.70M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.35B1.29B1.12B938.89M917.10M1.54B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments0.0088.94M102.61M113.28M143.00M57.76M
Total Debt71.11M22.40M20.96M37.37M12.71M13.63M
Total Liabilities1.26B1.18B1.02B847.01M820.80M1.47B
Stockholders Equity89.73M110.92M100.71M91.88M96.29M71.07M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow97.48M388.84M447.21M432.19M482.27M-110.87M
Operating Cash Flow97.46M390.53M454.80M440.25M495.39M-107.82M
Investing Cash Flow-324.87M-515.93M-641.28M-510.61M207.62M-933.38M
Financing Cash Flow96.81M144.80M178.82M26.67M-648.66M985.98M

BayFirst Financial Corp Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price8.10
Price Trends
50DMA
9.10
Negative
100DMA
10.58
Negative
200DMA
13.35
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.35
Positive
RSI
35.03
Neutral
STOCH
33.72
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For BAFN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 8.1 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.88, below the 50-day MA of 9.10, and below the 200-day MA of 13.35, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.35 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.03 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.72 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for BAFN.

BayFirst Financial Corp Risk Analysis

BayFirst Financial Corp disclosed 59 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. BayFirst Financial Corp reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

BayFirst Financial Corp Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
$48.61M10.758.21%3.45%0.32%37.93%
72
Outperform
$47.30M3.1315.03%14.91%0.81%
68
Neutral
$51.21M10.124.54%3.96%6.89%
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
55
Neutral
$46.02M18.574.74%1.02%12.12%
54
Neutral
$35.76M-2.78-11.14%3.95%1.63%-508.72%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
BAFN
BayFirst Financial Corp
8.10
-5.18
-39.01%
ASRV
Ameriserv Financial
3.06
0.31
11.27%
HFBL
Home Federal Bancorp Of Louisiana
15.36
3.56
30.17%
OPHC
Optimumbank Holdings
4.15
-0.92
-18.15%
TCBS
Texas Community
15.75
1.10
7.51%
PBBK
PB Bankshares
20.27
6.17
43.76%

BayFirst Financial Corp Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
BayFirst Financial Reports Q3 2025 Loss Amid Restructuring
Negative
Nov 6, 2025

On October 31, 2025, BayFirst Financial Corp. held a conference call to discuss its financial results for the third quarter of 2025. The company reported an $18.9 million net loss, largely due to restructuring charges and the sale of its SBA 7(a) loan portfolio to Banesco USA. This strategic shift aims to derisk the balance sheet and focus on sustainable growth through community banking. Despite the losses, BayFirst is optimistic about returning to profitability in 2026 and enhancing shareholder value by strengthening its community banking operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (BAFN) stock is a Hold with a $9.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BayFirst Financial Corp stock, see the BAFN Stock Forecast page.

BayFirst Financial Corp Navigates Strategic Shift Amid Losses
Nov 4, 2025

BayFirst Financial Corp’s recent earnings call painted a picture of a challenging quarter marked by significant net losses and restructuring charges. The company is navigating a strategic shift away from its SBA 7(a) lending business, which has historically contributed to operating losses. Despite some positive developments, such as an increase in deposit balances and a reduction in net charge-offs, the overall sentiment was overshadowed by more prominent lowlights, including a decreased net interest margin and higher nonperforming assets.

Financial Disclosures
BayFirst Financial to Release Q3 Results October 30
Neutral
Sep 30, 2025

BayFirst Financial Corp. announced it will release its third-quarter results on October 30, 2025, with a conference call scheduled for October 31, 2025, to discuss the outcomes. This announcement is significant for stakeholders as it provides insights into the company’s financial performance and strategic direction, potentially impacting its market position and investor confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (BAFN) stock is a Hold with a $9.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BayFirst Financial Corp stock, see the BAFN Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
BayFirst Financial Exits SBA 7(a) Lending Business
Neutral
Sep 29, 2025

On September 29, 2025, BayFirst Financial Corp. announced its decision to exit the SBA 7(a) lending business by selling $103 million in SBA 7(a) loan balances to Banesco USA. This strategic move is part of BayFirst’s efforts to derisk its balance sheet and focus on long-term growth, with the majority of its SBA lending staff transitioning to Banesco USA. The transaction is expected to close in the fourth quarter of the year, marking a significant shift in BayFirst’s operations while Banesco USA aims to expand its small business lending capabilities nationally.

The most recent analyst rating on (BAFN) stock is a Hold with a $9.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on BayFirst Financial Corp stock, see the BAFN Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 07, 2025