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Avalo Therapeutics (AVTX)
NASDAQ:AVTX

Avalo Therapeutics (AVTX) AI Stock Analysis

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Avalo Therapeutics

(NASDAQ:AVTX)

37Underperform
Avalo Therapeutics' overall stock score is low due to significant financial challenges, including declining revenues and persistent losses. The technical analysis indicates a strong downtrend, though oversold conditions may offer a potential for a short-term rebound. The negative valuation underscores the company's financial instability. While the appointment of a new Chairman is a positive strategic move, it is insufficient to offset the broader financial difficulties.
Positive Factors
Financial Stability
Avalo Therapeutics ended the fiscal year with $134.5 million in cash and equivalents, which is expected to be sufficient to fund operations into 2027, indicating strong financial stability.
Market Opportunity
The market for hidradenitis suppurativa treatments is expanding, with biologics projected to generate significant revenue, which presents opportunities for Avalo Therapeutics.
Product Potential
AVTX-009 is expected to emerge as the best-in-class IL-1 inhibitor for hidradenitis suppurativa due to its differentiating features such as higher potency, better subcutaneous bioavailability, and longer half-life compared to competitors.
Negative Factors
Financial Performance
The company reported a net loss of $35.3M as it reported a loss of $26.5M in change in fair value of warrant liability.

Avalo Therapeutics (AVTX) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Avalo Therapeutics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAvalo Therapeutics (AVTX) is a biopharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing targeted therapies for immune-related diseases. The company operates in the biotechnology and pharmaceutical sectors, leveraging its expertise in immunology to address unmet medical needs. Avalo's core products and services include a pipeline of drug candidates designed to modulate immune responses in various autoimmune and inflammatory conditions.
How the Company Makes MoneyAvalo Therapeutics makes money primarily through the development and commercialization of its drug candidates. The company generates revenue through partnerships and collaborations with larger pharmaceutical companies, which may include milestone payments, royalties, and licensing fees. Additionally, Avalo may receive funding from grants or government programs aimed at advancing medical research. The company's financial performance is significantly influenced by the progress and success of its clinical trials, regulatory approvals, and the eventual commercialization of its therapies.

Avalo Therapeutics Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Avalo Therapeutics faces significant financial challenges, with declining revenues, persistent losses, and negative cash flow. While the elimination of debt and improvements in equity are positives, the company's inability to generate positive cash flow and profits suggests substantial financial instability.
Income Statement
25
Negative
Avalo Therapeutics has experienced a significant decline in revenue over the years, with the most recent annual revenue dropping to $441,000 from $1,924,000 the previous year. The company also shows negative gross profit and net income over multiple years, indicating ongoing operational challenges. Additionally, the net profit margin is consistently negative, reflecting broader profitability issues.
Balance Sheet
40
Negative
The company's balance sheet shows a high equity ratio, primarily due to the elimination of total debt in the most recent year. However, the return on equity remains negative due to ongoing net losses. The stockholders' equity has improved significantly from negative to positive over the past year, which is a positive sign, but the lack of revenue growth remains concerning.
Cash Flow
30
Negative
Avalo Therapeutics demonstrates negative free cash flow consistently, indicating cash flow challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is also negative, highlighting inefficiencies in translating operational activities into cash flow. Although financing activities have supported operations in previous years, the sustainability of this approach is uncertain given ongoing losses.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
441.00K1.92M18.05M5.40M6.70M
Gross Profit
-26.83M640.00K14.62M3.91M6.40M
EBIT
-68.51M-23.44M-37.44M-82.13M-26.95M
EBITDA
-68.51M-27.95M-37.29M-80.50M-45.45M
Net Income Common Stockholders
-35.13M-31.54M-41.66M-84.35M-64.38M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
134.55M7.42M13.17M54.59M18.92M
Total Assets
150.73M20.99M33.37M80.21M43.76M
Total Debt
568.00K537.00K19.42M32.83M426.35K
Net Debt
-133.98M-6.88M6.24M-21.75M-18.49M
Total Liabilities
17.70M13.69M44.28M57.13M19.19M
Stockholders Equity
133.03M7.30M-10.91M23.08M24.56M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-49.06M-30.84M-26.85M-71.00M-40.60M
Operating Cash Flow
-49.06M-30.68M-26.75M-70.89M-40.54M
Investing Cash Flow
356.00K-133.00K-95.00K-113.00K11.13M
Financing Cash Flow
175.85M25.04M-14.70M106.76M44.78M

Avalo Therapeutics Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price5.00
Price Trends
50DMA
6.67
Negative
100DMA
7.45
Negative
200DMA
9.02
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.63
Negative
RSI
40.15
Neutral
STOCH
49.25
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AVTX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 5 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.27, below the 50-day MA of 6.67, and below the 200-day MA of 9.02, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.63 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 40.15 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 49.25 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AVTX.

Avalo Therapeutics Risk Analysis

Avalo Therapeutics disclosed 64 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Avalo Therapeutics reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Avalo Therapeutics Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
51
Neutral
$5.35B3.41-40.83%2.89%18.11%2.60%
45
Neutral
$53.96M-69.80%56.62%26.48%
42
Neutral
$64.05M-62.75%30.51%
37
Underperform
$57.42M-50.06%-77.09%63.49%
34
Underperform
$65.24M-153.99%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AVTX
Avalo Therapeutics
4.98
-11.02
-68.88%
KRON
Kronos Bio
0.90
-0.13
-12.62%
PYXS
Pyxis Oncology
1.04
-3.36
-76.36%
ANRO
Alto Neuroscience, Inc.
2.44
-13.66
-84.84%

Avalo Therapeutics Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Avalo Therapeutics Appoints Michael Heffernan as Chairman
Positive
Mar 26, 2025

On March 25, 2025, Avalo Therapeutics appointed Michael Heffernan as Chairman of the Board, succeeding Dr. Garry Neil, who will remain as CEO and a Board member. This strategic move aims to leverage Heffernan’s extensive experience in biopharmaceuticals to advance Avalo’s pipeline, particularly the Phase 2 LOTUS trial for hidradenitis suppurativa, and aligns with the company’s growth and strategic direction.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.