Avalo Therapeutics (AVTX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $341.28M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 350.54K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.11
• Revenue Growth: -76.59%
• EPS Growth: 94.03%
• Country: US
• Employees: 23
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -2.19
• Shares Outstanding: 18,133,968
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 301,746
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 350,542
• PEG Ratio: 0.02
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.45
• Price to Sales (P/S): 136.95
• P/FCF Ratio: -1.23
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.20
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 358.30
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 655.18
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -0.89
• 1Y Price Target: $37.40
• Price Target Upside: 94.29% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): -6.76
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 55 Neutral
• Price Target: $20.00 ▲(3.90% Upside)

The overall stock score is primarily impacted by significant financial challenges, including declining revenues and persistent losses. However, positive technical indicators and promising corporate events provide some optimism. The valuation remains a concern due to negative earnings, but strategic developments in clinical trials and leadership could enhance future prospects.

Positive Factors

Phase 2 LOTUS Trial Completion

The completion of enrollment for the Phase 2 LOTUS trial positions Avalo to potentially offer a new treatment for hidradenitis suppurativa, a market projected to exceed $10 billion by 2035. This milestone demonstrates progress in their pipeline, which is crucial for long-term growth and market presence.

Leadership Strengthening

The strategic appointments of Taylor Boyd and Ashley Ivanowicz enhance Avalo's leadership team, bringing expertise in business development and HR. This strengthens the company's strategic direction and organizational growth, supporting its mission to deliver innovative therapies.

Debt Elimination

Eliminating total debt improves financial stability and flexibility, allowing Avalo to allocate resources towards R&D and strategic initiatives, crucial for sustaining long-term growth and competitiveness in the biotechnology sector.

Negative Factors

Declining Revenue

A significant decline in revenue indicates challenges in product commercialization and market penetration, which can hinder Avalo's ability to fund R&D and achieve sustainable growth, impacting its long-term viability.

Negative Cash Flow

Consistent negative free cash flow suggests operational inefficiencies and reliance on external financing, which may not be sustainable. This limits Avalo's ability to invest in growth opportunities and weather financial challenges.

Persistent Losses

Ongoing losses reflect operational challenges and inefficiencies, impacting Avalo's ability to achieve profitability. This limits reinvestment in R&D and strategic initiatives, crucial for long-term success in the competitive biotech industry.

Avalo Therapeutics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Avalo Therapeutics, Inc., a clinical-stage precision medicine company, discovers, develops, and commercializes targeted therapeutics for patients with unmet clinical need in immunology, immuno-oncology, and rare genetic diseases. It develops AVTX-002, a fully human anti-LIGHT monoclonal antibody, which is under Phase II clinical trial for the treatment of non-eosinophilic asthma, as well as inflammatory bowel disease, including moderate to severe Crohn's disease, and ulcerative colitis; and Phase III clinical trial for the treatment of COVID-19 acute respiratory distress syndrome. The company also engages in developing AVTX-007, a fully human Anti-IL-18 monoclonal antibody that is under Phase I clinical trial for the treatment of still's disease, including adult-onset still's disease and systemic juvenile idiopathic arthritis. Its products for rare genetic diseases in Phase III clinical trials include AVTX-801, a D-galactose substrate replacement therapy for the treatment of phosphoglucomutase 1 deficiency (PGM1), also known as PGM1-CDG; and AVTX-803, a L-fucose substrate replacement therapy for the treatment of LADII, also known as SLC35C1-CDG. The company was formerly known as Cerecor Inc. and changed its name to Avalo Therapeutics, Inc. in August 2021. Avalo Therapeutics, Inc. was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Rockville, Maryland.

How the Company Makes Money

Avalo Therapeutics generates revenue primarily through the development and commercialization of its therapeutic products. The company may earn money through several key revenue streams, including product sales once its therapies receive regulatory approval, milestone payments from partnerships with larger pharmaceutical companies, and potential royalties on sales of partnered products. Additionally, Avalo may engage in collaborations and licensing agreements that provide upfront payments and research funding, contributing to its overall earnings. The company’s focus on rare diseases positions it to benefit from orphan drug designations, which can provide market exclusivity and financial incentives.

Avalo Therapeutics Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Avalo Therapeutics faces significant financial challenges, characterized by declining revenues, persistent losses, and negative cash flow. While debt elimination and equity improvements offer some positives, the company's inability to generate positive cash flow and profits suggests substantial financial instability.

Income Statement

Avalo Therapeutics has experienced a significant decline in revenue over the years, with the most recent annual revenue dropping to $441,000 from $1,924,000 the previous year. The company also shows negative gross profit and net income over multiple years, indicating ongoing operational challenges. Additionally, the net profit margin is consistently negative, reflecting broader profitability issues.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet shows a high equity ratio, primarily due to the elimination of total debt in the most recent year. However, the return on equity remains negative due to ongoing net losses. The stockholders' equity has improved significantly from negative to positive over the past year, which is a positive sign, but the lack of revenue growth remains concerning.

Cash Flow

Avalo Therapeutics demonstrates negative free cash flow consistently, indicating cash flow challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is also negative, highlighting inefficiencies in translating operational activities into cash flow. Although financing activities have supported operations in previous years, the sustainability of this approach is uncertain given ongoing losses.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	192.00K	441.00K	1.92M	18.05M	5.40M	6.70M
Gross Profit	105.00K	807.00K	640.00K	14.62M	3.91M	6.40M
EBITDA	-77.51M	-68.34M	-23.29M	-37.27M	-80.48M	-45.45M
Net Income	-99.88M	-35.13M	-31.54M	-41.66M	-84.38M	-63.50M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	125.10M	150.73M	20.99M	33.37M	80.21M	43.76M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	111.62M	134.55M	7.42M	13.17M	54.59M	18.92M
Total Debt	0.00	568.00K	537.00K	19.95M	33.32M	426.00K
Total Liabilities	33.55M	17.70M	13.69M	44.28M	57.13M	19.19M
Stockholders Equity	91.55M	133.03M	7.30M	-10.91M	23.08M	24.56M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-52.26M	-49.06M	-30.84M	-26.85M	-71.00M	-40.60M
Operating Cash Flow	-52.26M	-49.06M	-30.68M	-26.75M	-70.89M	-40.54M
Investing Cash Flow	-84.12M	356.00K	-133.00K	-95.00K	-113.00K	11.13M
Financing Cash Flow	81.61M	175.85M	25.04M	-14.70M	106.76M	44.78M

Avalo Therapeutics Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 19.25
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AVTX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 19.25 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.27, above the 50-day MA of 16.92, and above the 200-day MA of 9.51, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.68 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 57.28 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.30 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AVTX.

Avalo Therapeutics Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GUTS	56 Neutral	$296.02M	-0.93	-518.40%	―	-96.91%	63.11%
AVTX	55 Neutral	$341.28M	-2.21	-174.79%	―	-76.59%	94.03%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
CRBP	43 Neutral	$152.01M	-1.48	-55.65%	―	―	-17.43%
MIST	39 Underperform	$187.37M	-2.49	-260.65%	―	―	3.70%
FBRX	36 Underperform	$291.50M	-5.57	-110.72%	―	―	77.08%
ELTX	30 Underperform	$142.54M	-2.32	―	―	―	17.36%

Avalo Therapeutics Corporate Events

Avalo Completes Enrollment for Phase 2 LOTUS Trial

On December 2, 2025, Avalo Therapeutics announced the completion of enrollment for their Phase 2 LOTUS trial of AVTX-009 in treating hidradenitis suppurativa, with topline data expected in Q2 2026. The company highlights AVTX-009’s potential for best-in-class efficacy due to its high affinity and longer half-life compared to existing treatments, positioning it as a promising candidate in a market projected to exceed $10 billion by 2035.

Avalo Completes Enrollment for Phase 2 LOTUS Trial

On October 29, 2025, Avalo Therapeutics announced the completion of patient enrollment for its Phase 2 LOTUS trial of AVTX-009, aimed at treating hidradenitis suppurativa. The trial exceeded its target with approximately 250 patients enrolled, reflecting strong engagement from both investigators and patients. This milestone brings Avalo closer to potentially offering a new treatment option for this chronic condition, with topline data expected in mid-2026.

Avalo Therapeutics Highlights AVTX-009 Potential in New Presentation

On October 10, 2025, Avalo Therapeutics released an updated investor presentation highlighting the potential of their lead compound, AVTX-009, in treating hidradenitis suppurativa (HS). The presentation emphasizes AVTX-009’s superior efficacy and longer dosing intervals compared to existing treatments, positioning it as a promising candidate in a market expected to grow significantly. The ongoing Phase 2 LOTUS trial is expected to yield topline data by mid-2026, which could impact Avalo’s market position and stakeholder interests positively.

Avalo Therapeutics Strengthens Leadership with Key Appointments

On October 1, 2025, Avalo Therapeutics announced the appointment of Taylor Boyd as Chief Business Officer and Ashley Ivanowicz as Senior Vice President of Human Resources. These appointments are part of Avalo’s strategic efforts to strengthen its leadership team as it advances its lead asset, AVTX-009, through clinical trials. Taylor Boyd brings extensive experience in biotech business development and corporate finance, while Ashley Ivanowicz offers nearly 20 years of HR expertise in the biotech and pharmaceutical sectors. The appointments are expected to enhance Avalo’s strategic direction and organizational growth, supporting the company’s mission to deliver meaningful therapies for patients.

Avalo Therapeutics Appoints Kevin Lind to Board

On September 16, 2025, Avalo Therapeutics announced the appointment of Kevin Lind to its Board of Directors, effective October 1, 2025. Lind, a seasoned biotechnology executive with over 20 years of experience, will join the Audit Committee and has a history of successful leadership in capital markets and strategic company development. His appointment follows the resignation of June Almenoff, M.D., Ph.D., who stepped down to pursue new opportunities, effective the same date. Almenoff’s resignation was not related to any company issues, and her contributions over the past four years were acknowledged by Avalo.