Avalo Therapeutics (AVTX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $297.31M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 289.39K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.26
• Revenue Growth: -76.59%
• EPS Growth: 94.03%
• Country: US
• Employees: 23
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -2.19
• Shares Outstanding: 18,512,756
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 316,517
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 289,392
• PEG Ratio: 0.02
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.45
• Price to Sales (P/S): 136.95
• P/FCF Ratio: -1.23
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.49
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 756.63
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.38K
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -1.87
• 1Y Price Target: $34.67
• Price Target Upside: 131.60% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 47 Neutral
• Price Target: $14.50 ▼(-3.14% Downside)

The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (minimal revenue, large losses, and sustained cash burn). Technicals are mixed with modestly negative momentum, while positive corporate-event momentum (Phase 2 enrollment completion and upcoming Q2 2026 data) provides some offset but not enough to overcome the current fundamentals; valuation support is limited due to unprofitability and no dividend data.

Positive Factors

Phase 2 LOTUS Trial Completion

The completion of enrollment for the Phase 2 LOTUS trial positions Avalo to potentially offer a new treatment for hidradenitis suppurativa, a market projected to exceed $10 billion by 2035. This milestone demonstrates progress in their pipeline, which is crucial for long-term growth and market presence.

Leadership Strengthening

The strategic appointments of Taylor Boyd and Ashley Ivanowicz enhance Avalo's leadership team, bringing expertise in business development and HR. This strengthens the company's strategic direction and organizational growth, supporting its mission to deliver innovative therapies.

Debt Elimination

Eliminating total debt improves financial stability and flexibility, allowing Avalo to allocate resources towards R&D and strategic initiatives, crucial for sustaining long-term growth and competitiveness in the biotechnology sector.

Negative Factors

Declining Revenue

A significant decline in revenue indicates challenges in product commercialization and market penetration, which can hinder Avalo's ability to fund R&D and achieve sustainable growth, impacting its long-term viability.

Negative Cash Flow

Consistent negative free cash flow suggests operational inefficiencies and reliance on external financing, which may not be sustainable. This limits Avalo's ability to invest in growth opportunities and weather financial challenges.

Persistent Losses

Ongoing losses reflect operational challenges and inefficiencies, impacting Avalo's ability to achieve profitability. This limits reinvestment in R&D and strategic initiatives, crucial for long-term success in the competitive biotech industry.

Avalo Therapeutics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Avalo Therapeutics, Inc., a clinical-stage precision medicine company, discovers, develops, and commercializes targeted therapeutics for patients with unmet clinical need in immunology, immuno-oncology, and rare genetic diseases. It develops AVTX-002, a fully human anti-LIGHT monoclonal antibody, which is under Phase II clinical trial for the treatment of non-eosinophilic asthma, as well as inflammatory bowel disease, including moderate to severe Crohn's disease, and ulcerative colitis; and Phase III clinical trial for the treatment of COVID-19 acute respiratory distress syndrome. The company also engages in developing AVTX-007, a fully human Anti-IL-18 monoclonal antibody that is under Phase I clinical trial for the treatment of still's disease, including adult-onset still's disease and systemic juvenile idiopathic arthritis. Its products for rare genetic diseases in Phase III clinical trials include AVTX-801, a D-galactose substrate replacement therapy for the treatment of phosphoglucomutase 1 deficiency (PGM1), also known as PGM1-CDG; and AVTX-803, a L-fucose substrate replacement therapy for the treatment of LADII, also known as SLC35C1-CDG. The company was formerly known as Cerecor Inc. and changed its name to Avalo Therapeutics, Inc. in August 2021. Avalo Therapeutics, Inc. was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Rockville, Maryland.

How the Company Makes Money

Avalo Therapeutics generates revenue primarily through the development and commercialization of its therapeutic products. The company may earn money through several key revenue streams, including product sales once its therapies receive regulatory approval, milestone payments from partnerships with larger pharmaceutical companies, and potential royalties on sales of partnered products. Additionally, Avalo may engage in collaborations and licensing agreements that provide upfront payments and research funding, contributing to its overall earnings. The company’s focus on rare diseases positions it to benefit from orphan drug designations, which can provide market exclusivity and financial incentives.

Avalo Therapeutics Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall fundamentals are weak: revenue has collapsed to a very small level, losses remain large (TTM net loss ~$99.9M), and cash burn is substantial (TTM free cash flow about -$52.3M). The main offset is a relatively clean balance sheet with little-to-no debt and meaningful equity, which helps near-term solvency but does not fix ongoing burn.

Income Statement

Revenue has been highly volatile and is now very small, falling to $0.2M in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) from $18.1M in 2022, with sharp contraction continuing in recent periods. Profitability is materially weak: the company is generating large operating losses and a sizable net loss (TTM net loss of ~$99.9M), indicating an expense base far above the current revenue run-rate. While gross profit is positive in some periods, overall margins are deeply negative due to high operating costs, leaving the income statement heavily dependent on external funding rather than business scale.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows low financial leverage with effectively no debt in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) and a strong equity base (stockholders’ equity of ~$91.5M on ~$125.1M of assets), which reduces near-term solvency pressure. However, returns to shareholders are very weak given persistent losses (negative return on equity in the most recent periods). The capital structure looks capable of supporting operations in the near term, but ongoing losses could erode equity over time if not offset by new capital or improved operating performance.

Cash Flow

Cash generation remains a key weakness: operating cash flow and free cash flow are consistently negative, including TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) free cash flow of roughly -$52.3M, reflecting ongoing cash burn. While the cash burn improved versus the prior year (TTM free cash flow growth is positive), the business is still far from self-funding. Cash outflows broadly track reported losses, suggesting limited non-cash add-backs and reinforcing that the current cost structure requires continued financing support.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	192.00K	441.00K	1.92M	18.05M	5.40M	6.70M
Gross Profit	105.00K	807.00K	640.00K	14.62M	3.91M	6.40M
EBITDA	-77.51M	-68.34M	-23.29M	-37.27M	-80.48M	-45.45M
Net Income	-99.88M	-35.13M	-31.54M	-41.66M	-84.38M	-63.50M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	125.10M	150.73M	20.99M	33.37M	80.21M	43.76M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	111.62M	134.55M	7.42M	13.17M	54.59M	18.92M
Total Debt	0.00	568.00K	537.00K	19.95M	33.32M	426.00K
Total Liabilities	33.55M	17.70M	13.69M	44.28M	57.13M	19.19M
Stockholders Equity	91.55M	133.03M	7.30M	-10.91M	23.08M	24.56M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-52.26M	-49.06M	-30.84M	-26.85M	-71.00M	-40.60M
Operating Cash Flow	-52.26M	-49.06M	-30.68M	-26.75M	-70.89M	-40.54M
Investing Cash Flow	-84.12M	356.00K	-133.00K	-95.00K	-113.00K	11.13M
Financing Cash Flow	81.61M	175.85M	25.04M	-14.70M	106.76M	44.78M

Avalo Therapeutics Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 14.97
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AVTX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 14.97 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.30, below the 50-day MA of 17.45, and above the 200-day MA of 10.81, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.60 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.60 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 38.05 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AVTX.

Avalo Therapeutics Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FBRX	57 Neutral	$445.08M	-6.72	-110.72%	―	―	77.08%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
CRBP	49 Neutral	$166.75M	-1.58	-55.65%	―	―	-17.43%
MIST	49 Neutral	$171.19M	-2.25	-260.65%	―	―	3.70%
AVTX	47 Neutral	$297.31M	-1.71	-174.79%	―	-76.59%	94.03%
GUTS	47 Neutral	$290.53M	-0.81	-518.40%	―	-96.91%	63.11%
ELTX	43 Neutral	$147.79M	-2.41	―	―	―	17.36%

Avalo Therapeutics Corporate Events

Avalo Therapeutics Highlights AVTX-009 Progress in HS

Avalo Therapeutics has released an updated investor presentation in January 2026 detailing progress on AVTX-009, its lead anti-IL-1β monoclonal antibody candidate, which it is positioning as a potential best-in-class and best-in-disease therapy for hidradenitis suppurativa. The company reported that enrollment has been completed in its Phase 2 LOTUS trial in HS, with topline data expected in the second quarter of 2026, and emphasized clinical data suggesting AVTX-009’s high affinity, long half-life and favorable safety profile could enable strong efficacy and less frequent dosing relative to prior IL-1–targeting approaches; combined with a robust leadership team and funding runway into 2028, the update underscores Avalo’s bid to secure a leading role in the rapidly expanding HS treatment market and to extend AVTX-009 into additional immune-mediated inflammatory diseases.

The most recent analyst rating on (AVTX) stock is a Buy with a $40.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Avalo Therapeutics stock, see the AVTX Stock Forecast page.

Avalo Completes Enrollment for Phase 2 LOTUS Trial

On December 2, 2025, Avalo Therapeutics announced the completion of enrollment for their Phase 2 LOTUS trial of AVTX-009 in treating hidradenitis suppurativa, with topline data expected in Q2 2026. The company highlights AVTX-009’s potential for best-in-class efficacy due to its high affinity and longer half-life compared to existing treatments, positioning it as a promising candidate in a market projected to exceed $10 billion by 2035.

The most recent analyst rating on (AVTX) stock is a Hold with a $17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Avalo Therapeutics stock, see the AVTX Stock Forecast page.