Avalo Therapeutics (AVTX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $122.19M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 255.69K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.11
• Revenue Growth: -45.35%
• EPS Growth: 96.80%
• Country: US
• Employees: 23
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 51
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -1.92
• Shares Outstanding: 13,152,356
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 130,920
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 255,687
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: -0.46
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: -128.26
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -60.56
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 0.92
• 1Y Price Target: $32.30
• Price Target Upside: 258.09% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

• Rating: 56 Neutral
• Price Target: $9.00 ▼(-0.22% Downside)

The overall stock score is primarily influenced by significant financial challenges, including declining revenues and persistent losses. However, positive technical indicators and promising corporate developments, such as the potential of AVTX-009 and strategic board appointments, provide some optimism for future growth.

Positive Factors

Financial Stability

Avalo's cash position of $113.3M is expected to fund operations into 2028, providing a runway through key value inflection points.

Market Opportunity

The HS market is rapidly expanding, with biologics projected to garner over $4 billion by 2035, which broadens the market opportunity for Avalo.

Strategic Advantage

AVTX-009’s potential for a once-per-month administration profile could provide a competitive advantage over other treatments in the same class.

Negative Factors

Clinical Development Risks

Risks include delays to AVTX-009 clinical development and negative clinical data with AVTX-009, with particular attention to competitor HiSCR75 benchmarks.

Financial Performance

Avalo recorded a 2Q25 net loss of $1.92 per share, which was higher than the estimated net loss of $1.23 per share.

Avalo Therapeutics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Avalo Therapeutics, Inc., a clinical-stage precision medicine company, discovers, develops, and commercializes targeted therapeutics for patients with unmet clinical need in immunology, immuno-oncology, and rare genetic diseases. It develops AVTX-002, a fully human anti-LIGHT monoclonal antibody, which is under Phase II clinical trial for the treatment of non-eosinophilic asthma, as well as inflammatory bowel disease, including moderate to severe Crohn's disease, and ulcerative colitis; and Phase III clinical trial for the treatment of COVID-19 acute respiratory distress syndrome. The company also engages in developing AVTX-007, a fully human Anti-IL-18 monoclonal antibody that is under Phase I clinical trial for the treatment of still's disease, including adult-onset still's disease and systemic juvenile idiopathic arthritis. Its products for rare genetic diseases in Phase III clinical trials include AVTX-801, a D-galactose substrate replacement therapy for the treatment of phosphoglucomutase 1 deficiency (PGM1), also known as PGM1-CDG; and AVTX-803, a L-fucose substrate replacement therapy for the treatment of LADII, also known as SLC35C1-CDG. The company was formerly known as Cerecor Inc. and changed its name to Avalo Therapeutics, Inc. in August 2021. Avalo Therapeutics, Inc. was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Rockville, Maryland.

How the Company Makes Money

Avalo Therapeutics generates revenue primarily through the development and commercialization of its therapeutic products. The company may earn income from product sales once its candidates receive regulatory approval and are launched in the market. Additionally, Avalo could engage in strategic partnerships or collaborations with larger pharmaceutical companies, which may provide upfront payments, milestone payments, and royalties on sales of partnered products. Government grants and research funding can also contribute to its revenue, especially during the early stages of product development. Overall, the company’s financial health is heavily dependent on the successful advancement of its drug candidates through clinical trials and subsequent market introduction.

Avalo Therapeutics Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Avalo Therapeutics faces significant financial challenges, characterized by declining revenues, persistent losses, and negative cash flow. While debt elimination and equity improvements offer some positives, the company's inability to generate positive cash flow and profits suggests substantial financial instability.

Income Statement

Avalo Therapeutics has experienced a significant decline in revenue over the years, with the most recent annual revenue dropping to $441,000 from $1,924,000 the previous year. The company also shows negative gross profit and net income over multiple years, indicating ongoing operational challenges. Additionally, the net profit margin is consistently negative, reflecting broader profitability issues.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet shows a high equity ratio, primarily due to the elimination of total debt in the most recent year. However, the return on equity remains negative due to ongoing net losses. The stockholders' equity has improved significantly from negative to positive over the past year, which is a positive sign, but the lack of revenue growth remains concerning.

Cash Flow

Avalo Therapeutics demonstrates negative free cash flow consistently, indicating cash flow challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is also negative, highlighting inefficiencies in translating operational activities into cash flow. Although financing activities have supported operations in previous years, the sustainability of this approach is uncertain given ongoing losses.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	441.00K	441.00K	1.92M	18.05M	5.40M	6.70M
Gross Profit	934.00K	807.00K	640.00K	14.62M	3.91M	6.40M
EBITDA	-61.22M	-68.34M	-23.29M	-37.29M	-80.50M	-45.45M
Net Income	-46.22M	-35.13M	-31.54M	-41.66M	-84.35M	-64.38M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	126.58M	150.73M	20.99M	33.37M	80.21M	43.76M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	113.28M	134.55M	7.42M	13.17M	54.59M	18.92M
Total Debt	2.68M	568.00K	537.00K	19.42M	32.83M	426.35K
Total Liabilities	22.01M	17.70M	13.69M	44.28M	57.13M	19.19M
Stockholders Equity	104.57M	133.03M	7.30M	-10.91M	23.08M	24.56M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-47.42M	-49.06M	-30.84M	-26.85M	-71.00M	-40.60M
Operating Cash Flow	-47.42M	-49.06M	-30.68M	-26.75M	-70.89M	-40.54M
Investing Cash Flow	-70.86M	356.00K	-133.00K	-95.00K	-113.00K	11.13M
Financing Cash Flow	67.24M	175.85M	25.04M	-14.70M	106.76M	44.78M

Avalo Therapeutics Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 9.02
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AVTX, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 9.02 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.09, above the 50-day MA of 7.08, and above the 200-day MA of 7.04, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.63 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 57.68 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 45.94 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AVTX.

Avalo Therapeutics Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AVTX	56 Neutral	$122.19M	―	-90.25%	―	-45.35%	96.80%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.33	-41.57%	2.23%	23.26%	-2.03%
DOMH	―	$98.34M	―	-29.28%	―	―	―
RENB	―	$54.96M	―	-67.13%	―	―	―
KRON	51 Neutral		―		―	21.15%	46.44%
PYXS	47 Neutral	$79.38M	―	-74.80%	―	-82.53%	-26.57%
ANRO	42 Neutral	$99.64M	―	-42.78%	―	―	―

Avalo Therapeutics Corporate Events

Avalo Therapeutics Highlights Potential of AVTX-009 in HS

On June 20, 2025, Avalo Therapeutics released an updated investor presentation highlighting the potential of its lead compound, AVTX-009, which shows promise in treating hidradenitis suppurativa (HS) with a higher affinity and longer half-life compared to existing treatments. The Phase 2 LOTUS trial for AVTX-009 is currently enrolling, with topline data expected by mid-2026, and the HS market is projected to grow significantly, offering substantial opportunities for Avalo and its stakeholders.

Avalo Therapeutics Appoints Dr. Rita Jain to Board

On June 17, 2025, Avalo Therapeutics appointed Dr. Rita Jain to its Board of Directors, bringing her extensive experience in biopharmaceutical development and regulatory affairs. This strategic addition aims to bolster Avalo’s efforts in advancing its lead asset, AVTX-009, currently in a Phase 2 trial for hidradenitis suppurativa, and aligns with the company’s broader development strategy. The Board also approved a revised compensation plan for non-employee directors to attract and retain qualified members, effective the same day.

Avalo Therapeutics Holds 2025 Annual Meeting

Avalo Therapeutics held its 2025 Annual Meeting on June 17, 2025, where stockholders voted on several key proposals. The meeting saw a high participation rate with approximately 90% of shares present or represented by proxy. During the meeting, eight nominees were elected to the Board, a ‘Say-on-Pay’ resolution was approved, and Ernst & Young LLP was ratified as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025.

Avalo Therapeutics Signs New Sales Agreement

On June 5, 2025, Avalo Therapeutics entered into a new Sales Agreement with TD Securities to offer and sell up to $75 million in common stock shares. This agreement follows the termination of a previous agreement with Oppenheimer & Co., which was concluded on June 4, 2025, allowing Avalo to explore new market opportunities without incurring termination penalties.

Avalo Therapeutics Highlights AVTX-009 Potential in HS Market

On June 4, 2025, Avalo Therapeutics released an updated investor presentation highlighting the potential of their lead compound, AVTX-009, in treating hidradenitis suppurativa (HS). The presentation emphasized AVTX-009’s superior affinity and longer half-life compared to existing treatments, suggesting it could offer more effective and convenient dosing. The HS market is projected to grow significantly, and Avalo’s ongoing Phase 2 LOTUS trial aims to capture a share of this expanding market. The company’s management team brings over 200 years of experience in biotech and pharma, supporting Avalo’s strategic positioning in the industry.