Mission Produce, Inc. (AVO)
NASDAQ:AVO
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Mission Produce
(NASDAQ:AVO)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
$17.00
▲(14.79% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/10/26
The score is driven primarily by improved financial quality—especially a significantly de-risked balance sheet and positive free cash flow—supported by a strong technical uptrend. It is held back by weak valuation interpretability (negative P/E and no dividend yield provided) and earnings-call guidance pointing to near-term pricing-driven margin pressure and softer Q2 profitability, despite longer-term synergy upside from the Calavo deal.
Positive Factors
Balance Sheet Strength
Very low leverage materially reduces interest burden and financial risk, granting durable flexibility to fund operations, capex and M&A (e.g., Calavo). A stronger balance sheet supports resilience through avocado price cycles and preserves strategic optionality over 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Industry Pricing Headwind
A sustained ~30% drop in industry avocado pricing materially depresses revenues and per-unit margins, eroding EBITDA and cash flow until supply/demand rebalances. This structural pricing pressure can delay deleveraging, integration payback and capital return timelines.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance Sheet Strength
Very low leverage materially reduces interest burden and financial risk, granting durable flexibility to fund operations, capex and M&A (e.g., Calavo). A stronger balance sheet supports resilience through avocado price cycles and preserves strategic optionality over 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Mission Produce (AVO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.05B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)841.40K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.57
Revenue Growth12.68%
EPS Growth3.09%
CountryUS
Employees3,100
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryFood Distribution
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.10
Shares Outstanding70,846,370
10 Day Avg. Volume730,783
30 Day Avg. Volume841,401
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio11.30
Price to Book (P/B)1.40
Price to Sales (P/S)0.59
P/FCF Ratio22.03
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.15
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.90
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.49
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.55
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$17.50Price Target Upside18.16% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.67
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.16B
Mission Produce Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Mission Produce, Inc. engages in sourcing, producing, packaging, and distributing avocados in the United States and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Marketing and Distribution, and International Farming. It also provides...
How the Company Makes Money
Mission Produce generates revenue primarily by selling avocados and related produce services through an integrated supply chain. Key revenue streams include: (1) Sales and distribution of avocados: the company purchases and/or grows avocados, then...
Mission Produce Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Shows how different business segments contribute to total revenue, helping identify which areas drive growth and which might need strategic adjustments.
Shows how different business segments contribute to total revenue, helping identify which areas drive growth and which might need strategic adjustments.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyMission Produce Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 12, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jun 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call balanced clear near-term challenges—most notably a 17% revenue decline driven by ~30% lower pricing, decreased cash balances, and short-term softness in blueberry profitability and Q2 margin expectations—with multiple operational and strategic positives, including 14% avocado volume growth, expanded gross margin (+190 bps), a 5% increase in adjusted EBITDA, strong segment-level execution (Marketing & Distribution adj. EBITDA +33%, International Farming adj. EBITDA +28%), reduced interest expense, and a strategically accretive and synergistic pending acquisition (Calavo) with at least $25 million of expected annualized cost synergies. Management frames many negatives as temporary and addressable through execution, integration, and maturation of assets, while emphasizing a clear plan to delever and return capital as cash generation improves.Positive Updates
Strong Avocado Volume Growth
Avocado volumes increased 14% year-over-year, driving the company's volume-centric operating strategy and supporting improved per-unit margins despite lower pricing.
Negative Updates
Revenue Decline Driven by Pricing
Total fiscal Q1 revenue fell 17% year-over-year to $278.6 million, driven primarily by a 30% decrease in pricing due to abundant Mexican supply and higher industry yields.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Avocado Volume Growth
Avocado volumes increased 14% year-over-year, driving the company's volume-centric operating strategy and supporting improved per-unit margins despite lower pricing.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided that avocado industry volumes for fiscal 2026 are expected to rise ~10–15% year-over-year while pricing is expected to be ~30–35% lower versus the ~$2.00/lb average in 2025; for Q1 they reported revenue of $278.6M (down 17% YoY), avocado volumes +14%, gross profit $31.6M, gross margin 11.3% (+190 bps), adjusted EBITDA $18.5M (+5% YoY), and adjusted net income $7.3M ($0.10 per diluted share); segment detail: Marketing & Distribution net sales $234.8M (‑21%) with segment adjusted EBITDA $12.9M (+33%), International Farming sales $10.6M (+15%) with adjusted EBITDA $2.3M (+28%), and Blueberries sales $40.8M (+12%) with segment adjusted EBITDA $3.3M (vs $6.2M prior); balance sheet/cash metrics: cash $44.8M (vs $64.8M), operating cash used $3.0M (vs $1.2M), Q1 capex $11.9M with full‑year capex expected ~ $40M; near‑term outlook calls for Q2 per‑unit margin compression, a ~1‑month delayed California harvest and lower Q2 profitability in Marketing & Distribution, ~10–15% of the Peruvian blueberry harvest to be sold in Q2 with volume and yield headwinds, consolidated adjusted EBITDA expected below last year, and the pending Calavo acquisition targeted to close in fiscal Q3 with at least $25M of annualized cost synergies achievable within 18 months and a path to delever to normalized levels ~2 years after close.Mission Produce Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
61
Positive
Balance Sheet
88
Very Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Oct 2025 | Oct 2024 | Oct 2023 | Oct 2022 | Oct 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.34B | 1.39B | 1.23B | 953.90M | 1.05B | 891.70M |
| Gross Profit | 160.80M | 160.70M | 152.50M | 83.30M | 89.80M | 124.50M |
| EBITDA | 104.30M | 105.90M | 110.70M | 43.50M | 4.40M | 94.40M |
| Net Income | 33.10M | 37.70M | 36.70M | -2.80M | -34.60M | 44.90M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 997.70M | 983.00M | 971.50M | 914.80M | 879.50M | 873.50M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 44.80M | 64.80M | 58.00M | 42.90M | 52.80M | 84.50M |
| Total Debt | 199.80M | 200.90M | 217.30M | 252.70M | 214.10M | 213.30M |
| Total Liabilities | 377.60M | 363.10M | 394.40M | 386.50M | 356.60M | 339.30M |
| Stockholders Equity | 586.90M | 587.30M | 547.30M | 503.60M | 502.10M | 534.20M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 38.30M | 37.20M | 61.20M | -20.60M | -26.00M | -26.40M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 86.80M | 88.60M | 93.40M | 29.20M | 35.20M | 47.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -48.80M | -51.90M | -33.50M | -54.10M | -51.40M | -70.30M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -32.90M | -29.50M | -43.80M | 14.30M | -21.80M | -11.50M |
Mission Produce Technical Analysis
Positive
14.81
Price Trends
13.77
Positive
13.01
Positive
12.60
Positive
Market Momentum
0.40
Negative
62.31
Neutral
71.74
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AVO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 14.81 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.50, above the 50-day MA of 13.77, and above the 200-day MA of 12.60, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.40 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.31 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.74 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AVO.
Mission Produce Risk Analysis
Mission Produce disclosed 42 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Mission Produce reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Mission Produce Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $399.80M | 15.27 | 17.27% | 3.55% | 9.33% | 72.31% | |
69 Neutral | $1.05B | -339.58 | 5.77% | ― | 12.68% | 3.09% | |
69 Neutral | $493.86M | 155.30 | 7.82% | 3.70% | -5.33% | ― | |
68 Neutral | $2.54B | 6.70 | 7.44% | 1.44% | 2.19% | -39.07% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
61 Neutral | $2.81B | 28.34 | -4.97% | ― | 1.45% | -5.49% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
AVO
Mission Produce
14.81
4.60
45.05%
CVGW
Calavo Growers
27.63
3.43
14.15%
WILC
Willi Food Inte
28.70
14.58
103.19%
ANDE
The Andersons
74.52
36.95
98.33%
UNFI
United Natural Foods
46.26
21.62
87.74%
Mission Produce Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Mission Produce Shareholders Reaffirm Board and Executive Pay
Positive
Apr 9, 2026
On April 9, 2026, Mission Produce, Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders virtually, with approximately 78.56% of eligible shares represented, constituting a quorum for corporate decisions. Shareholders voted to elect directors Stephen ...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Mission Produce Expands Credit Facilities for Strategic Financing
Positive
Apr 1, 2026
On April 1, 2026, Mission Produce, Inc. and certain subsidiaries entered into an amended and restated senior secured credit agreement providing up to $550 million in credit facilities with a syndicate of lenders led by Bank of America. The package...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Mission Produce Updates Investors Ahead of ROTH Conference
Neutral
Mar 23, 2026
On March 20, 2026, Mission Produce posted an updated investor presentation on its website, prepared for use at the 38th Annual ROTH Conference on March 23–24, 2026, where company officers are scheduled to participate. The materials outline t...
Business Operations and Strategy
Mission Produce Adopts One-Year Stockholder Rights Plan
Neutral
Jan 22, 2026
On January 22, 2026, Mission Produce announced that its board had adopted a one-year limited duration stockholder rights plan, effective January 21, 2026 and expiring January 21, 2027, in response to the accumulation of its common stock by strateg...
Executive/Board ChangesDelistings and Listing ChangesM&A Transactions
Mission Produce to Acquire Calavo Growers in Merger Deal
Positive
Jan 15, 2026
On January 14, 2026, Mission Produce entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Calavo Growers in a stock-and-cash transaction structured as a two-step merger, under which each Calavo share will be converted into Mission stock at a fixed excha...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.