Mission Produce (AVO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $737.01M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 264.91K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 18.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.42
• Revenue Growth: 31.14%
• EPS Growth: 576.83%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,100
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 60
• Industry: Food Distribution
• EPS (TTM): 0.10
• Shares Outstanding: 71,071,754
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 175,253
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 264,908
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.39
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.74
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $18.00
• Price Target Upside: 73.41% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1

Mission Produce's overall score reflects strong financial health, with significant revenue growth and improved profitability. Strategic expansions and acquisitions further enhance its growth potential. However, technical indicators suggest a cautious market sentiment, and valuation metrics indicate moderate expectations for growth. While earnings call insights are positive, challenges such as margin compression and cash flow issues necessitate careful monitoring.

Positive Factors

Earnings Performance

Mission Produce achieved record Q4 revenue and dramatically outperformed with EBITDA figures far surpassing expectations.

Financial Outlook

The balance sheet has improved significantly, with net debt reduced to lower levels, enhancing the company's financial outlook.

Revenue Growth

Q1’25 posted a solid 15% revenue beat on continued elevated avocado pricing.

Negative Factors

Margin Challenges

Earnings delivered a more modest beat given subdued margin improvement via increased use of co-packers for sourcing amid high demand and uneven supply.

Pricing Concerns

It is reasonable to conservatively model some level of pricing declines in the avocado market after an exceptionally strong period.

Mission Produce Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Mission Produce, Inc. (AVO) is a leading global supplier of fresh avocados and a pioneer in the avocado industry. The company operates in the agricultural sector and specializes in the production, distribution, and marketing of avocados. With operations spanning across various countries, Mission Produce caters to a diverse customer base, including retail, wholesale, and foodservice sectors, providing high-quality avocados year-round.

How the Company Makes Money

Mission Produce generates revenue primarily through the sale of fresh avocados. The company sources avocados from its owned and operated farms as well as through strategic partnerships with growers in key avocado-producing regions around the world. This diverse sourcing strategy allows Mission Produce to ensure a consistent supply of avocados throughout the year. The company's revenue streams are bolstered by its distribution network, which delivers avocados to a wide range of customers, including large retail chains, foodservice providers, and wholesalers. Additionally, Mission Produce invests in ripening and distribution centers that enhance the value of its products by ensuring optimal fruit quality and readiness for consumption. Key factors contributing to the company's earnings include its strong global presence, efficient supply chain management, and the increasing global demand for avocados.

Mission Produce Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mission Produce demonstrates solid financial health with significant revenue growth and improved profitability. The balance sheet reflects reduced leverage and a strong equity base, while cash flow generation has improved, enhancing liquidity. However, careful management of cash reserves and strategic investment decisions will be crucial to maintaining this positive trajectory.

Income Statement

Mission Produce has shown significant revenue growth from $953.9 million in 2023 to $1.31 billion in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), resulting in a robust revenue growth rate. The gross profit margin has remained relatively stable, showing consistent profitability, while the net profit margin has improved markedly, indicating better operational efficiency. However, the EBIT and EBITDA margins have shown minor fluctuations, which could reflect operational cost variations. Overall, the income statement reflects a positive growth trajectory with improved profitability metrics.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a healthy equity position with stockholders' equity increasing to $582.9 million in TTM. The debt-to-equity ratio has improved, indicating lower leverage and a stronger financial position. The equity ratio has been stable, showing a good proportion of assets financed by equity. However, the decrease in cash reserves could potentially limit liquidity flexibility. Overall, the balance sheet portrays financial stability with reduced leverage risks.

Cash Flow

Mission Produce's free cash flow has turned positive in TTM, marking a significant improvement from previous periods. The operating cash flow to net income ratio indicates effective cash generation from operations relative to net income. However, the volatility in cash flow from investing and financing activities suggests potential challenges in investment and financing strategies. Overall, the cash flow statements indicate improved cash generation capabilities, although investment activities warrant attention.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
1.23B	953.90M	1.05B	891.70M	862.30M
	Gross Profit
152.50M	83.30M	89.80M	124.50M	124.60M
	EBIT
65.70M	6.90M	21.80M	60.90M	68.40M
	EBITDA
110.70M	43.50M	4.40M	94.40M	86.50M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
36.70M	-2.80M	-34.90M	44.90M	28.80M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
58.00M	42.90M	52.80M	84.50M	124.00M
	Total Assets
971.50M	914.80M	879.50M	873.50M	777.30M
	Total Debt
217.30M	252.70M	214.10M	213.30M	178.60M
	Net Debt
159.30M	209.80M	161.30M	128.80M	54.60M
	Total Liabilities
394.40M	386.50M	356.60M	339.30M	303.80M
	Stockholders Equity
547.30M	503.60M	502.10M	534.20M	473.50M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
61.20M	-20.60M	-26.00M	-26.40M	11.60M
	Operating Cash Flow
93.40M	29.20M	35.20M	47.00M	78.90M
	Investing Cash Flow
-33.50M	-54.10M	-51.40M	-70.30M	-67.70M
	Financing Cash Flow
-43.80M	14.30M	-21.80M	-11.50M	50.10M

Mission Produce Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 10.38
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AVO, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 10.38 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.34, below the 50-day MA of 10.45, and below the 200-day MA of 11.79, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.88 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 32.40 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AVO.

Mission Produce Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AVO	71 Outperform	$737.01M	18.14	7.69%	―	31.14%	576.83%
ANDE	64 Neutral	$1.19B	11.13	8.25%	2.44%	-17.58%	-11.24%
SPTN	63 Neutral	$646.46M	2,221.84	0.04%	4.57%	-2.66%	8.18%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$6.66B	11.77	3.06%	3.96%	2.60%	-21.54%
HFFG	57 Neutral	$210.42M	―	-18.45%	―	4.63%	-2188.56%
CVGW	55 Neutral	$474.09M	51.40	6.85%	2.63%	-21.19%	―
UNFI	53 Neutral	$1.62B	―	-4.94%	―	4.73%	29.70%

Mission Produce Corporate Events

Mission Produce Highlights Strategic Moves at Roth Conference

On March 13, 2025, Mission Produce announced the posting of an updated investor presentation on its website, which will be used at the 37th Annual Roth Conference from March 16-18, 2025. This presentation highlights the company’s strategic initiatives and market positioning, including its recent acquisition of the remaining 50% interest in the Peruvian joint venture, Grupo Arato, which is expected to enhance its operations and strengthen its market presence.

Mission Produce Sees Revenue Surge in Q1 2025

Mission Produce reported a 29% increase in total revenue for the fiscal first quarter of 2025, reaching $334.2 million, primarily driven by higher avocado prices and volumes in the Marketing & Distribution segment. Despite challenges in the Mexican supply chain, the company achieved net income growth and increased blueberry segment revenue, although adjusted EBITDA decreased due to lower per-unit margins. The company remains focused on leveraging its strengths in California and Peruvian markets to navigate industry supply challenges and continue creating shareholder value.