Mission Produce (AVO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $790.32M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 217.23K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 18.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.52
• Revenue Growth: 31.14%
• EPS Growth: 576.83%
• Country: US
• Employees: 3,100
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Food Distribution
• EPS (TTM): 0.12
• Shares Outstanding: 71,071,754
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 290,338
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 217,234
• PEG Ratio: 0.02
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.36
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 16.41
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $18.00
• Price Target Upside: 70.13% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 1

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: $11.50 ▲(8.70%Upside)

Mission Produce's overall stock score reflects robust financial performance and strategic growth initiatives, tempered by technical challenges and valuation concerns. Strong revenue growth and effective diversification strategies are key strengths, while technical indicators and valuation metrics suggest caution.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

Mission Produce capped off a record year with a record fourth quarter, and enters FY25 with continued macro tailwinds, a materially improved balance sheet and favorable field conditions ahead of harvest.

Operational Strategy

Mission's global supply chain and owned production in Peru make it uniquely well-positioned to navigate this era.

Revenue Growth

Q1'25 posted a solid 15% revenue beat on continued elevated avocado pricing.

Negative Factors

Margin Improvement

Earnings delivered a more modest beat given subdued margin improvement via increased use of co-packers for sourcing amid high demand and uneven supply.

Operational Challenge

Margin improvement was limited given a difficult YoY comp and higher than average use of co-packers for supply.

Mission Produce Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Mission Produce, Inc. engages in sourcing, producing, packaging, and distributing avocados in the United States and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Marketing and Distribution, and International Farming. It also provides value-added services, including ripening, bagging, custom packing, and logistical management. The company serves retail, wholesale, and foodservice customers. The company was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Oxnard, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Mission Produce generates revenue primarily through the sale of fresh avocados. The company's vertically integrated business model allows it to control the entire supply chain, from farming and harvesting to packing and distribution. This integration helps optimize costs and ensure quality, enhancing profitability. Key revenue streams include direct sales to retail chains, wholesalers, and foodservice providers. Additionally, Mission Produce benefits from strategic partnerships with growers and distributors, enhancing its market reach and supply capabilities. The company's global operations and focus on efficiency and innovation in agriculture and logistics further contribute to its financial performance.

Mission Produce Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mission Produce demonstrates solid financial health with significant revenue growth and improved profitability. The balance sheet reflects reduced leverage and a strong equity base, while cash flow generation has improved, enhancing liquidity. However, careful management of cash reserves and strategic investment decisions will be crucial to maintaining this positive trajectory.

Income Statement

Mission Produce has shown significant revenue growth from $953.9 million in 2023 to $1.31 billion in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), resulting in a robust revenue growth rate. The gross profit margin has remained relatively stable, showing consistent profitability, while the net profit margin has improved markedly, indicating better operational efficiency. However, the EBIT and EBITDA margins have shown minor fluctuations, which could reflect operational cost variations. Overall, the income statement reflects a positive growth trajectory with improved profitability metrics.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a healthy equity position with stockholders' equity increasing to $582.9 million in TTM. The debt-to-equity ratio has improved, indicating lower leverage and a stronger financial position. The equity ratio has been stable, showing a good proportion of assets financed by equity. However, the decrease in cash reserves could potentially limit liquidity flexibility. Overall, the balance sheet portrays financial stability with reduced leverage risks.

Cash Flow

Mission Produce's free cash flow has turned positive in TTM, marking a significant improvement from previous periods. The operating cash flow to net income ratio indicates effective cash generation from operations relative to net income. However, the volatility in cash flow from investing and financing activities suggests potential challenges in investment and financing strategies. Overall, the cash flow statements indicate improved cash generation capabilities, although investment activities warrant attention.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
1.31B	1.23B	953.90M	1.05B	891.70M	862.30M
	Gross Profit
155.10M	152.50M	83.30M	89.80M	124.50M	124.60M
	EBIT
67.60M	65.70M	6.90M	21.80M	60.90M	68.40M
	EBITDA
107.70M	110.70M	43.50M	4.40M	94.40M	86.50M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
40.60M	36.70M	-2.80M	-34.90M	44.90M	28.80M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
26.31M	58.00M	42.90M	52.80M	84.50M	124.00M
	Total Assets
0.00	971.50M	914.80M	879.50M	873.50M	777.30M
	Total Debt
0.00	217.30M	252.70M	214.10M	213.30M	178.60M
	Net Debt
26.31M	159.30M	209.80M	161.30M	128.80M	54.60M
	Total Liabilities
0.00	394.40M	386.50M	356.60M	339.30M	303.80M
	Stockholders Equity
313.45M	547.30M	503.60M	502.10M	534.20M	473.50M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
45.60M	61.20M	-20.60M	-26.00M	-26.40M	11.60M
	Operating Cash Flow
82.70M	93.40M	29.20M	35.20M	47.00M	78.90M
	Investing Cash Flow
-38.50M	-33.50M	-54.10M	-51.40M	-70.30M	-67.70M
	Financing Cash Flow
-42.30M	-43.80M	14.30M	-21.80M	-11.50M	50.10M

Mission Produce Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 10.58
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AVO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 10.58 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.65, above the 50-day MA of 10.41, and below the 200-day MA of 11.80, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.10 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.29 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 48.89 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AVO.

Mission Produce Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ANDE	70 Neutral	$1.21B	11.15	8.25%	2.18%	-17.58%	-11.24%
AVO	68 Neutral	$790.32M	18.51	7.69%	―	31.14%	576.83%
CVGW	64 Neutral	$476.06M	50.49	6.85%	2.62%	-21.19%	―
SPTN	63 Neutral	$636.72M	2,245.98	-1.38%	4.74%	-2.66%	8.18%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$6.94B	11.29	2.95%	3.87%	2.70%	-24.49%
UNFI	56 Neutral	$1.74B	―	-4.94%	―	4.73%	29.70%
HFFG	51 Neutral	$202.52M	―	-18.85%	―	4.71%	-1754.14%

Mission Produce Corporate Events

Mission Produce Highlights Strategic Moves at Roth Conference

On March 13, 2025, Mission Produce announced the posting of an updated investor presentation on its website, which will be used at the 37th Annual Roth Conference from March 16-18, 2025. This presentation highlights the company’s strategic initiatives and market positioning, including its recent acquisition of the remaining 50% interest in the Peruvian joint venture, Grupo Arato, which is expected to enhance its operations and strengthen its market presence.

Mission Produce Sees Revenue Surge in Q1 2025

Mission Produce reported a 29% increase in total revenue for the fiscal first quarter of 2025, reaching $334.2 million, primarily driven by higher avocado prices and volumes in the Marketing & Distribution segment. Despite challenges in the Mexican supply chain, the company achieved net income growth and increased blueberry segment revenue, although adjusted EBITDA decreased due to lower per-unit margins. The company remains focused on leveraging its strengths in California and Peruvian markets to navigate industry supply challenges and continue creating shareholder value.