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Mission Produce
(NASDAQ:AVO)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$14.50
▲(16.75% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/10/26
AVO scores in the mid-range primarily due to improved financial stability (very low leverage) but mixed operating momentum (TTM revenue decline, margin compression, and softer free-cash-flow trend). Technicals are moderately positive with the stock above key moving averages and a positive MACD, while valuation is a key constraint given the high P/E and no dividend yield. The earnings call adds a balanced tilt: strong second-half EBITDA guidance and synergy targets are constructive, but recent results and near-term pricing pressure keep risk meaningfully elevated.
Positive Factors
Balance Sheet Strength
Mission’s very low leverage materially reduces financial risk and increases strategic optionality. A clean balance sheet supports M&A, the $100M buyback plan, and capital spending while cushioning commodity-driven earnings volatility, improving resilience across cycles.
Negative Factors
Revenue & Margin Trend
Revenue decline and compressed net margins (TTM net margin ~1.8%) reflect sensitivity to avocado price swings and size-mix issues. Persistent top-line weakness and thin profitability reduce return on invested capital and limit the buffer for execution missteps over coming quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance Sheet Strength
Mission’s very low leverage materially reduces financial risk and increases strategic optionality. A clean balance sheet supports M&A, the $100M buyback plan, and capital spending while cushioning commodity-driven earnings volatility, improving resilience across cycles.
Read all positive factors
Mission Produce Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Shows how different business segments contribute to total revenue, helping identify which areas drive growth and which might need strategic adjustments.
Shows how different business segments contribute to total revenue, helping identify which areas drive growth and which might need strategic adjustments.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyMission Produce (AVO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.11B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.37M
Price to Earnings (P/E)39.4
Beta (1Y)0.59
Revenue Growth-10.53%
EPS Growth-37.53%
CountryUS
Employees3,800
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryFood Distribution
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.32
Shares Outstanding88,319,810
10 Day Avg. Volume867,441
30 Day Avg. Volume1,374,167
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio11.30
Price to Book (P/B)1.40
Price to Sales (P/S)0.59
P/FCF Ratio22.03
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$17.50Price Target Upside40.90% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.65
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.40B
Mission Produce Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Mission Produce, Inc. is a prominent global entity that oversees the entire avocado value chain, from cultivation and processing to packaging and ultimate distribution across the United States and internationally. The company operates through two ...
How the Company Makes Money
Mission Produce generates revenue primarily by selling fresh avocados to customers (typically retailers, foodservice operators, and wholesalers). Its core revenue stream is the marketing and distribution of avocados it sources from third-party gro...
Mission Produce Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jun 08, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Sep 14, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mixed picture: near-term financial results were weak (revenue down 24%, adjusted EBITDA and net income materially lower) driven by a temporary oversupply and size-curve mismatch that compressed margins. Offsetting those near-term negatives were meaningful commercial positives (15% volume growth, strong category expansion with 1.6 million new households), an early close of the Calavo acquisition with a clear $25M synergy target, stronger second-half guidance (Q3 EBITDA $28–32M; H2 EBITDA $84–88M), and operational levers (multi-region sourcing, Peruvian production ramp and prepared foods opportunity) expected to drive margin recovery and longer-term growth.Positive Updates
Volume Growth and Category Expansion
Avocado volume sold increased 15% year-over-year in Q2; U.S. avocado consumption rose by "strong double digits" versus last year and more than 1.6 million new households entered the category during the quarter, supporting longer-term demand tailwinds.
Negative Updates
Revenue Decline
Fiscal Q2 revenue was $290.9 million, down 24% year-over-year driven largely by a steep decline in avocado selling prices.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Volume Growth and Category Expansion
Avocado volume sold increased 15% year-over-year in Q2; U.S. avocado consumption rose by "strong double digits" versus last year and more than 1.6 million new households entered the category during the quarter, supporting longer-term demand tailwinds.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Mission’s guidance calls for consolidated fiscal Q3 adjusted EBITDA of $28–$32 million (including a partial-quarter Calavo contribution) and consolidated second-half adjusted EBITDA of $84–$88 million; management does not expect material synergy realization in Q3 but targets at least $25 million of annualized cost synergies within 18 months with benefits beginning in Q4 and ramping into fiscal 2027. For Q3 the industry is expected to see avocado volumes up ~5–10% year-over-year while pricing is forecast to be roughly 15% below the $1.75/lb average in Q3 FY25; Mission’s Peruvian exportable production is expected at 120–130 million pounds (vs. 105 million last year) with sales weighted to Q4. The company reiterated fiscal-year CapEx near $45 million (including modest Calavo spend), reported cash of $33 million as of 4/30/2026 and $21 million net cash used in operating activities in the first six months, and noted recent Q2 figures of $290.9 million revenue (down 24%), $7.1 million adjusted EBITDA, $0.8 million adjusted net income ($0.01 per diluted share), and 15% avocado volume growth in Q2.Mission Produce Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
80
Positive
Cash Flow
61
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Oct 2025 | Oct 2024 | Oct 2023 | Oct 2022 | Oct 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.25B | 1.39B | 1.23B | 953.90M | 1.05B | 891.70M |
| Gross Profit | 152.90M | 160.70M | 152.50M | 83.30M | 89.80M | 124.50M |
| EBITDA | 83.20M | 105.90M | 110.70M | 43.50M | 4.40M | 94.40M |
| Net Income | 22.80M | 37.70M | 36.70M | -2.80M | -34.60M | 44.90M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.01B | 983.00M | 971.50M | 914.80M | 879.50M | 873.50M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 33.00M | 64.80M | 58.00M | 42.90M | 52.80M | 84.50M |
| Total Debt | 217.70M | 200.90M | 217.30M | 252.70M | 214.10M | 213.30M |
| Total Liabilities | 396.60M | 363.10M | 394.40M | 386.50M | 356.60M | 339.30M |
| Stockholders Equity | 578.60M | 587.30M | 547.30M | 503.60M | 502.10M | 534.20M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 34.30M | 37.20M | 61.20M | -20.60M | -26.00M | -26.40M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 80.60M | 88.60M | 93.40M | 29.20M | 35.20M | 47.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -46.80M | -51.90M | -33.50M | -54.10M | -51.40M | -70.30M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -38.10M | -29.50M | -43.80M | 14.30M | -21.80M | -11.50M |
Mission Produce Risk Analysis
Mission Produce disclosed 42 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Mission Produce reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Mission Produce Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
84 Outperform | $373.33M | 13.05 | 16.97% | 3.09% | 18.26% | 40.02% | |
66 Neutral | $1.11B | 39.39 | 3.93% | ― | -10.53% | -37.53% | |
65 Neutral | $2.41B | 18.72 | 14.04% | 1.02% | -1.98% | 18.34% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
50 Neutral | $3.08B | -81.21 | -2.43% | ― | -3.22% | 44.69% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
AVO
Mission Produce
12.15
-0.30
-2.41%
WILC
Willi Food Inte
30.20
9.57
46.40%
ANDE
The Andersons
69.75
32.64
87.95%
UNFI
United Natural Foods
48.05
21.47
80.78%
Mission Produce Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Mission Produce Advances $100 Million Share Buyback Program
Positive
Jul 10, 2026
Mission Produce, Inc. previously announced on June 8, 2026, that its board of directors had authorized a $100 million stock repurchase program as part of its capital allocation strategy. During the fiscal third quarter to date, the company has rep...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesStock BuybackFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Mission Produce Posts Q2 Loss, Launches Buyback Program
Negative
Jun 8, 2026
Mission Produce reported fiscal second-quarter 2026 results on June 8, 2026, for the period ended April 30, highlighting a 24% drop in revenue to $290.9 million as a 36% decline in avocado prices outweighed 15% volume growth, driven by robust Mexi...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesDelistings and Listing ChangesM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Mission Produce Completes Strategic Acquisition of Calavo Growers
Positive
May 29, 2026
On May 28, 2026, Mission Produce completed its acquisition of Calavo Growers, uniting two of North America’s most established avocado companies into an expanded fresh produce platform. The deal positions Mission to offer broader category cov...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Mission Produce Advances Calavo Acquisition with Mexican Approval
Positive
May 22, 2026
On May 22, 2026, Mission Produce and Calavo Growers announced they had received antitrust clearance from Mexico’s Federal Economic Competition Commission for Mission Produce’s pending acquisition of Calavo. This approval satisfies a ke...
M&A TransactionsShareholder Meetings
Mission Produce Shareholders Approve Stock Issuance for Merger
Positive
Apr 29, 2026
At a special meeting of stockholders held on April 28, 2026, Mission Produce shareholders approved the issuance of new common shares required to complete its planned mergers with Calavo Growers under a previously announced merger agreement. Roughl...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.