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Aurora Innovation (AUR)
NASDAQ:AUR
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Aurora Innovation
(NASDAQ:AUR)
Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:―
Positive Factors
Industry Position
AUR has locked up industry pole position in a $1T TAM with their first mover advantage.
Market Leadership
AUR is not just a leader in autonomous trucking but likely the only autonomous driving pure-play investors can buy in public markets.
Partnerships
Aurora teamed up with Continental to develop a reliable, serviceable, cost-efficient Aurora Driver hardware kit for mass production.
Negative Factors
Capital Requirements
AUR upsized future capital raise requirements to $650-850 million by the time free cash flow turns positive.
Leadership Changes
The departure of Sterling Anderson, a skilled and respected co-founder, will be missed.
Stock Sentiment
Uber is effectively monetizing part of their AUR stake, possibly dampening near-term sentiment, not to mention any technical selling possible as part of the offering.
Aurora Innovation (AUR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$10.52B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)25.55M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.47
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS Growth24.41%
CountryUS
Employees1,800
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength82
IndustryInformation Technology Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.12
Shares Outstanding1,418,704,300
10 Day Avg. Volume18,676,651
30 Day Avg. Volume25,545,657
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.78
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio-2.64
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.04
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-456.51
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-3.54
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$11.00Price Target Upside93.32% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
Aurora Innovation Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAurora Innovation, Inc. operates as a self-driving technology company in the United States. It focuses on developing Aurora Driver, a platform that brings a suite of self-driving hardware, software, and data services together to adapt and interoperate passenger vehicles, light commercial vehicles, and trucks. The company was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
How the Company Makes MoneyAurora Innovation makes money through partnerships and collaborations with automotive manufacturers and logistics companies to integrate its autonomous driving technology into their vehicles. The company licenses its Aurora Driver platform to these partners, who use it to enhance the capabilities of their fleets. Revenue is also generated through pilot programs, where Aurora collaborates with clients to test and refine its technology in real-world scenarios. Additionally, significant partnerships with companies in the transportation sector contribute to its earnings by providing access to extensive data and operational insights that further enhance the development and deployment of its autonomous systems.
Aurora Innovation Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: -26.58%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted significant achievements in launching commercial driverless truck operations and strong financial positioning, but also recognized challenges such as the need for additional capital and the departure of a key executive.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Commercial Launch of Driverless Trucks
Aurora has launched driverless trucks operating commercially on the Dallas to Houston route. This marks a significant milestone in autonomous freight technology.
Safety and Regulatory Advancements
Aurora closed the safety case for their Dallas to Houston launch lane, achieving a 100% ARM, and published a driverless safety report. They have support from Texas Governor Greg Abbott and are engaging with federal and state regulators.
Strong On-Road Performance
The Aurora driver achieved a 95% success rate in loads running the production release software with a 100% API, exceeding the commercial launch target of 90%.
Planned Expansion of Operations
Aurora plans to expand operations to Fort Worth, El Paso, and Phoenix by the second half of 2025, and to validate night driving and adverse weather conditions.
Financial Strength and Extended Cash Runway
Aurora ended the first quarter with $1.2 billion in cash and short-term investments, extending their expected cash runway into the fourth quarter of 2026.
Negative Updates
Need for Additional Capital
Aurora expects to raise between $650 million and $850 million prior to achieving positive free cash flow, which is anticipated in 2028.
Delayed Launch Timeline
The commercial launch was delayed by a few months, affecting the financial timeline and increasing the required capital raise.
Departure of Co-Founder and CPO
Sterling Anderson, Co-Founder and Chief Product Officer, will be leaving Aurora at the end of May to pursue another opportunity.
Company Guidance
During Aurora's First Quarter 2025 Business Review Call, the company provided comprehensive guidance on their future trajectory and financial outlook. Aurora announced that their driverless trucks, powered by the Aurora driver, have transitioned from vision to reality, now operating commercially. The company has achieved a 100% Autonomous Readiness Metric (ARM) for their Dallas to Houston launch lane, signifying full validation of their technology. Aurora is committed to expanding their commercial lanes and anticipates operating tens of trucks by the end of 2025. Financially, they reported operating expenses of $211 million, with an exclusion of stock-based compensation bringing it to $177 million. The company expects to raise $650 million to $850 million before achieving positive free cash flow, anticipated in 2028. Aurora's cash and short-term investments stand at nearly $1.2 billion, expected to fund operations into the fourth quarter of 2026. They have also set a goal to expand their operating domain to increase truck utilization further by validating night driving and adverse weather conditions in the latter half of 2025.Aurora Innovation Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Aurora Innovation is facing significant financial challenges with no revenue generation in recent years. The company is struggling with profitability and cash flow issues, despite a strong balance sheet in terms of equity. The absence of operational income and reliance on financing activities for cash flow sustainability are major concerns.Income Statement
Aurora Innovation's income statement reveals significant challenges with no revenue reported in 2023 and 2024, following a sharp decline from previous years. The company has been consistently operating at a loss with negative EBIT and EBITDA figures, and a net loss of $748 million in 2024. This indicates severe profitability issues and an inability to generate revenue, which are critical concerns for financial health.20
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet shows a strong equity position with stockholders' equity of $1.875 billion in 2024, indicating financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio remains low, suggesting limited leverage, which is positive. However, the equity ratio is declining due to decreasing total assets, and the company has been unable to generate significant revenue to support asset growth.55
Neutral
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis indicates negative free cash flow of $645 million in 2024, worsening from previous years. Operating cash flow remains negative, reflecting ongoing operational difficulties. The company has been reliant on financing activities to support cash flow, highlighting potential sustainability concerns if this trend continues without revenue improvements.35
Negative
| Breakdown | |||||
| TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | ||||
| 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 68.00M | 82.54M | 0.00 | Gross Profit |
| -24.00M | 0.00 | -716.00M | 18.00M | -614.46M | -17.23M | EBIT |
| -804.00M | -786.00M | -835.00M | 262.00M | -730.66M | -218.12M | EBITDA |
| -788.00M | -699.00M | -748.00M | -716.00M | -718.95M | -197.22M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -791.00M | -748.00M | -796.00M | -2.71B | -755.45M | -214.45M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | ||||
| 1.16B | 1.22B | 1.20B | 1.10B | 1.61B | 387.35M | Total Assets |
| 2.07B | 2.14B | 2.23B | 2.00B | 3.69B | 618.88M | Total Debt |
| 115.00M | 121.00M | 122.00M | 136.00M | 146.82M | 103.83M | Net Debt |
| -55.00M | -90.00M | -379.00M | -126.00M | -1.46B | -283.51M | Total Liabilities |
| 286.00M | 263.00M | 250.00M | 217.00M | 348.38M | 895.46M | Stockholders Equity |
| 1.78B | 1.88B | 1.99B | 1.78B | 3.34B | -276.58M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | ||||
| -637.00M | -645.00M | -613.00M | -523.00M | -611.34M | -198.57M | Operating Cash Flow |
| -603.00M | -611.00M | -598.00M | -508.00M | -563.29M | -191.88M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -254.00M | -172.00M | 8.00M | -852.00M | 249.88M | 343.29M | Financing Cash Flow |
| 572.00M | 492.00M | 831.00M | 11.00M | 1.54B | 1.45M |
Aurora Innovation Technical Analysis
Negative
5.69
Price Trends
6.46
Negative
6.84
Negative
6.41
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.26
Positive
39.36
Neutral
37.45
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AUR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 5.69 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.05, below the 50-day MA of 6.46, and below the 200-day MA of 6.41, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.26 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.36 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 37.45 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AUR.
Aurora Innovation Risk Analysis
Aurora Innovation disclosed 67 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Aurora Innovation reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Aurora Innovation Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $14.64B | 61.37 | 25.20% | 0.58% | 10.71% | -27.64% | |
80 Outperform | $11.50B | 54.98 | 89.60% | ― | 9.18% | 14.35% | |
78 Outperform | $15.64B | 305.41 | 5.39% | ― | 32.25% | 156.94% | |
73 Outperform | $11.43B | 26.48 | 9.82% | ― | 3.51% | -27.28% | |
62 Neutral | $11.92B | 10.48 | -7.50% | 2.95% | 7.40% | -8.18% | |
55 Neutral | $10.52B | ― | -43.43% | ― | ― | 24.41% | |
46 Neutral | $12.54B | ― | -11.15% | ― | 23.16% | -9.81% |
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
AUR
Aurora Innovation
5.69
3.17
125.79%
AKAM
Akamai
78.51
-10.58
-11.88%
MANH
Manhattan Associates
192.88
-35.96
-15.71%
BSY
Bentley Systems
49.18
-0.73
-1.46%
MNDY
Monday.com
298.96
72.38
31.94%
SAIL
SailPoint, Inc.
23.30
-1.25
-5.09%
Aurora Innovation Corporate Events
Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Aurora Innovation Launches Self-Driving Trucking Service in Texas
Positive
May 1, 2025
On May 1, 2025, Aurora Innovation launched its commercial self-driving trucking service in Texas, marking a significant milestone as the first company to deploy a self-driving Class 8 trucking service in the U.S. The service, which operates driverless hauls between Dallas and Houston, aims to address challenges in the trillion-dollar trucking industry, such as driver shortages and high operational costs, by offering a reliable and safe autonomous solution. Aurora plans to expand this service to El Paso, Texas, and Phoenix, Arizona, by the end of 2025, further strengthening its position in the market and potentially transforming logistics and supply chain operations.
Spark’s Take on AUR Stock
According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, AUR is a Neutral.
Aurora Innovation’s overall stock score of 50 reflects significant financial challenges, with no recent revenue generation and ongoing cash flow issues being major concerns. However, the earnings call presents a more optimistic future with strategic partnerships, regulatory support, and a planned commercial launch in 2025. The technical indicators are mixed, and valuation remains difficult due to the company’s current financial standing. The most pressing issues are financial performance and the need to generate revenue, while the upcoming milestones and potential in autonomous trucking provide a positive outlook.
To see Spark’s full report on AUR stock, click here.
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.