Aurora Innovation (AUR)
NASDAQ:AUR
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Aurora Innovation
(NASDAQ:AUR)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$6.00
▲(13.85% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:05/01/26
The score is held back primarily by very weak financial performance—minimal revenue, very large losses, and substantial cash burn—despite low leverage. Offsetting factors include improving technical momentum and a more optimistic earnings-call outlook with aggressive 2026 growth targets and strong liquidity, though execution and funding risks remain material.
Positive Factors
Healthy balance sheet & low leverage
Very low financial leverage and substantial equity provide structural financial flexibility, enabling continued R&D, pilot deployments, and industrialization without immediate solvency pressure. This runway supports multi-year scaling efforts and reduces the risk of forced asset sales during development.
Negative Factors
Tiny commercial revenue base
Extremely small absolute revenue leaves the company exposed to execution delays; fixed cost absorption remains minimal and forecasts hinge on steep ramp assumptions. This weak revenue base increases dependency on achieving sustained commercial adoption to reach scalable margins.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Healthy balance sheet & low leverage
Very low financial leverage and substantial equity provide structural financial flexibility, enabling continued R&D, pilot deployments, and industrialization without immediate solvency pressure. This runway supports multi-year scaling efforts and reduces the risk of forced asset sales during development.
Read all positive factors
Aurora Innovation (AUR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$11.53B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)18.27M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.30
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS Growth3.79%
CountryUS
Employees1,800
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustryInformation Technology Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.11
Shares Outstanding1,652,829,300
10 Day Avg. Volume18,662,507
30 Day Avg. Volume18,272,464
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.99
Price to Book (P/B)3.30
Price to Sales (P/S)2353.92
P/FCF Ratio-11.54
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.85
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.26K
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-698.48
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-11.60
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$10.59Price Target Upside100.90% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.47
Revenue Forecast (FY)$15.11M
Aurora Innovation Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Aurora Innovation, Inc. operates as a self-driving technology company in the United States. It focuses on developing Aurora Driver, a platform that brings a suite of self-driving hardware, software, and data services together to adapt and interope...
How the Company Makes Money
null...
Aurora Innovation Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 11, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized major technological and commercial milestones — first driverless operations on public roads, 250k driverless miles (nearly 3x prior), expanded operating domain and mapping automation, new customer agreements, and clear OEM progress — alongside ambitious 2026 growth targets (2026 revenue guidance up ~400% at midpoint, >200 trucks exiting 2026, ~$80M run-rate). However, these operational positives sit against a small current revenue base ($3M recognized in 2025), sizable operating losses (Q4 operating loss $238M), and significant cash burn (FY2025 operating cash use $581M) with reliance on continued OEM timelines and financing tools (ATM). Overall the strength of the operational execution, customer wins, partnerships, and a solid liquidity position led management to present an optimistic scaling plan that materially outweighs the financial and execution risks described.Positive Updates
Commercial Launch and First-Mover Advantage
Launched the first driverless commercial trucking operations on U.S. public roads, establishing a clear first-mover position and converting proof-of-concept into revenue-generating commercial operations.
Negative Updates
Very Small Absolute Revenue Base
Recognized revenue of only $3.0M in fiscal 2025 (total year adjusted revenue $4.0M including pilot revenue), leaving a small commercial revenue base despite operational milestones.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Commercial Launch and First-Mover Advantage
Launched the first driverless commercial trucking operations on U.S. public roads, establishing a clear first-mover position and converting proof-of-concept into revenue-generating commercial operations.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided 2026 revenue of $14–16 million (≈400% YoY growth at the midpoint), noting 2026 will be back‑end loaded with Q4 contributing over half of full‑year revenue, and expects to exit 2026 with more than 200 driverless trucks in operation (≈$80 million revenue run‑rate for its Transportation‑as‑a‑Service business); management expects the second‑generation commercial kit (fleet launch in Q2, scaling to ~20 trucks/week in Q3) to drive a 50%+ reduction in hardware costs and target breakeven gross margin on a run‑rate basis exiting 2026. They expect average quarterly cash use of ~$190–220 million in 2026, believe current liquidity of nearly $1.5 billion is sufficient to reach positive free cash flow in 2028, and will use the ATM for RSU tax liabilities through 2027; FY2025 metrics included $3 million recognized revenue ($4 million adjusted including pilots), Q4 revenue of $1 million (a 25% sequential increase), Q4 operating loss of $238 million including $48 million of stock‑based comp (ex‑SBC ≈$190 million), R&D $155 million, SG&A $30 million, cost of revenue $6 million, operating cash use of $146 million in Q4 and $581 million for FY2025, and capex of $8 million in Q4 / $31 million for FY2025.Aurora Innovation Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
12
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
63
Positive
Cash Flow
20
Very Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 3.00M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 68.00M | 82.00M |
| Gross Profit | -14.00M | -676.00M | -716.00M | -609.00M | -615.00M |
| EBITDA | -871.00M | -765.00M | -814.00M | -716.00M | -715.00M |
| Net Income | -816.00M | -748.00M | -796.00M | -1.72B | -755.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.34B | 2.14B | 2.23B | 2.00B | 3.69B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.28B | 1.22B | 1.20B | 1.10B | 1.61B |
| Total Debt | 157.00M | 121.00M | 122.00M | 136.00M | 147.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 203.00M | 263.00M | 250.00M | 217.00M | 348.00M |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.14B | 1.88B | 1.99B | 1.78B | 3.34B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -612.00M | -645.00M | -613.00M | -523.00M | -611.34M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -581.00M | -611.00M | -598.00M | -508.00M | -563.29M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -245.00M | -172.00M | 8.00M | -852.00M | 249.88M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 834.00M | 492.00M | 831.00M | 11.00M | 1.54B |
Aurora Innovation Technical Analysis
Positive
5.27
Price Trends
4.42
Positive
4.36
Positive
4.94
Positive
Market Momentum
0.18
Negative
68.13
Neutral
87.97
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AUR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.27 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.36, above the 50-day MA of 4.42, and above the 200-day MA of 4.94, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.18 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.13 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 87.97 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AUR.
Aurora Innovation Risk Analysis
Aurora Innovation disclosed 67 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Aurora Innovation reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Aurora Innovation Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
60 Neutral | $7.32B | -0.36 | -37.31% | ― | 8.69% | -37.14% | |
55 Neutral | $11.53B | -8.65 | -39.77% | ― | ― | 3.79% | |
48 Neutral | $1.01B | -5.21 | 9999.00% | ― | 99.44% | 5.62% | |
48 Neutral | $143.75M | -2.52 | -73.64% | ― | 127.00% | 40.53% |
* Technology Sector Average
AUR
Aurora Innovation
5.88
-1.00
-14.53%
AEVA
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15.99
8.82
123.01%
INVZ
Innoviz Technologies
0.67
-0.03
-4.96%
MBLY
Mobileye Global, Inc. Class A
8.69
-5.71
-39.65%
Aurora Innovation Corporate Events
Executive/Board Changes
Aurora Innovation Adds Meta Executive David Wehner to Board
Positive
Feb 27, 2026
On February 26, 2026, Aurora Innovation director Claire D’Oyly-Hughes Johnson notified the company of her decision to resign from its board, with the departure becoming effective February 27, 2026, and the company emphasizing that her exit w...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.