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Aurora Innovation (AUR)
NASDAQ:AUR
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Aurora Innovation
(NASDAQ:AUR)
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Rating:46Neutral
Price Target:
$4.50
▼(-3.64% Downside)
The score is held down primarily by very weak financial performance—minimal revenue versus large losses and sustained cash burn—alongside bearish technicals. The main offset is constructive earnings-call progress on driverless trucking milestones and a strong liquidity runway, but profitability and cash flow remain the key constraints.
Positive Factors
Technology & operational milestones
Sustained, validated driverless mileage and flawless safety/on-time metrics materially reduce technical and operational execution risk. These durable milestones demonstrate the stack can operate repeatedly on public roads, supporting long-term commercialization and customer confidence in scaling autonomous freight services.
OEM and commercial partnerships
Deep OEM integrations and commercial customer agreements create structural barriers to entry and accelerate adoption. Close ties to truckmakers, fleet operators and logistics software providers help embed Aurora into partner roadmaps and supply chains, increasing the likelihood of durable, recurring commercial deployments.
Liquidity runway and low leverage
A multi-year cash runway plus low debt provides the firm time to complete technology validation and scale commercialization without immediate refinancing pressure. This financial flexibility is a durable enabler for executing multi-year R&D, fleet builds, and partner rollouts required in autonomous trucking.
Negative Factors
Minimal revenue vs large losses
Very low current revenue against substantial recurring losses shows the business model is not yet monetized at scale. Over months, persistent revenue shortfall relative to burn increases the risk that the firm will need further capital or strategic pivots before achieving sustainable unit economics and long-term profitability.
High cash burn and weak cash generation
Consistent negative operating and free cash flow indicates the company consumes substantial capital to progress R&D and commercial pilots. Unless revenue scales materially, this structural cash burn will necessitate ongoing funding, diluting shareholders or restricting strategic options over the medium term.
Delayed all-weather validation
Weather validation is a structural gating item for nationwide deployment and year-round commercial service. The delay compresses the timeline for route expansion and hinders signing larger fleets that require proven all-weather performance, slowing revenue scale and prolonging the path to sustainable operations.
Aurora Innovation (AUR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$9.04B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)14.94M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.25
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS Growth5.46%
CountryUS
Employees1,800
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustryInformation Technology Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.11
Shares Outstanding1,596,585,400
10 Day Avg. Volume18,972,081
30 Day Avg. Volume14,941,917
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.58
Price to Book (P/B)5.44
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio-15.80
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.00
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.53K
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-16.02
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-11.16
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$10.36Price Target Upside121.84% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.46
Revenue Forecast (FY)$30.33M
Aurora Innovation Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAurora Innovation, Inc. operates as a self-driving technology company in the United States. It focuses on developing Aurora Driver, a platform that brings a suite of self-driving hardware, software, and data services together to adapt and interoperate passenger vehicles, light commercial vehicles, and trucks. The company was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
How the Company Makes MoneyAurora Innovation makes money through partnerships and collaborations with automotive manufacturers and logistics companies to integrate its autonomous driving technology into their vehicles. The company licenses its Aurora Driver platform to these partners, who use it to enhance the capabilities of their fleets. Revenue is also generated through pilot programs, where Aurora collaborates with clients to test and refine its technology in real-world scenarios. Additionally, significant partnerships with companies in the transportation sector contribute to its earnings by providing access to extensive data and operational insights that further enhance the development and deployment of its autonomous systems.
Aurora Innovation Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 30, 2025
(Q2-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 18, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted significant achievements in the advancement of driverless commercial trucking operations and strategic partnerships, alongside strong financial management. However, the financial losses and the requirement for observers in trucks indicate challenges in reaching full operational and commercial maturity.Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Launch of Driverless Commercial Trucking Operations
Aurora launched the first driverless commercial trucking operations on public roads in the U.S., achieving over 20,000 safe driverless miles from April to June.
Expansion of Operations
Aurora validated and began night operations, doubling truck utilization potential. Operations expanded with routes between Dallas and Houston, Fort Worth, and Phoenix.
Strong Financial Position
Aurora ended the quarter with $1.3 billion in cash and short-term investments, expecting this liquidity to fund operations into Q2 2027.
Partnerships and Legislative Support
Aurora formed partnerships with companies like Werner and Hirschbach and saw legislative support with the introduction of the AMERICA DRIVES Act.
Development of Next-Generation Hardware
Progress in the development of second and third-generation hardware kits with Fabrinet and Continental, aiming for significant cost reductions and scaling capabilities.
Negative Updates
Operating Loss
Aurora reported an operating loss of $230 million for the quarter, including $55 million in stock-based compensation.
Observer Requirement in Trucks
Aurora's driverless trucks still require a front seat observer due to prototype parts, affecting full autonomy perception.
Limited Revenue Generation
Revenue of only $1 million was recognized across driverless and supervised commercial loads, indicating early-stage commercialization.
Company Guidance
During Aurora's second quarter 2025 Business Review Call, significant guidance was provided outlining various metrics and accomplishments. Aurora announced the launch of their first driverless commercial trucking operations in the U.S., achieving over 20,000 safe driverless miles from April to June, and maintaining nearly 100% on-time performance with a perfect safety record. They expanded their operations to include nighttime driving, doubling truck utilization potential. Aurora now operates three driverless trucks between Dallas and Houston, and plans to validate operations between Fort Worth and El Paso, extending to Phoenix by year-end. Financially, they reported $1 million in revenue, with an operating loss of $230 million, and ended the quarter with $1.3 billion in liquidity. Looking forward, Aurora plans to scale operations with second and third-generation hardware kits, aiming for significant cost reductions and operational expansion across the Sunbelt. The company expects to validate driverless operations in more challenging weather conditions by the end of the year.Aurora Innovation Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Aurora Innovation is facing significant financial challenges with no revenue generation in recent years. The company is struggling with profitability and cash flow issues, despite a strong balance sheet in terms of equity. The absence of operational income and reliance on financing activities for cash flow sustainability are major concerns.Income Statement
Aurora Innovation's income statement reveals significant challenges with no revenue reported in 2023 and 2024, following a sharp decline from previous years. The company has been consistently operating at a loss with negative EBIT and EBITDA figures, and a net loss of $748 million in 2024. This indicates severe profitability issues and an inability to generate revenue, which are critical concerns for financial health.8
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet shows a strong equity position with stockholders' equity of $1.875 billion in 2024, indicating financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio remains low, suggesting limited leverage, which is positive. However, the equity ratio is declining due to decreasing total assets, and the company has been unable to generate significant revenue to support asset growth.62
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash flow analysis indicates negative free cash flow of $645 million in 2024, worsening from previous years. Operating cash flow remains negative, reflecting ongoing operational difficulties. The company has been reliant on financing activities to support cash flow, highlighting potential sustainability concerns if this trend continues without revenue improvements.18
Very Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.00M | 0.00 | 0.00 | 68.00M | 82.00M | 0.00 |
| Gross Profit | -565.00M | -676.00M | -716.00M | -609.00M | -615.00M | -179.00M |
| EBITDA | -811.00M | -765.00M | -814.00M | -716.00M | -715.00M | -215.00M |
| Net Income | -803.00M | -748.00M | -796.00M | -1.72B | -755.00M | -214.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.51B | 2.14B | 2.23B | 2.00B | 3.69B | 618.88M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.25B | 1.22B | 1.20B | 1.10B | 1.61B | 387.35M |
| Total Debt | 107.00M | 121.00M | 122.00M | 136.00M | 147.00M | 103.83M |
| Total Liabilities | 219.00M | 263.00M | 250.00M | 217.00M | 348.00M | 132.18M |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.29B | 1.88B | 1.99B | 1.78B | 3.34B | 486.70M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -608.00M | -645.00M | -613.00M | -523.00M | -611.34M | -198.57M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -577.00M | -611.00M | -598.00M | -508.00M | -563.29M | -191.88M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -445.00M | -172.00M | 8.00M | -852.00M | 249.88M | 343.29M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 845.00M | 492.00M | 831.00M | 11.00M | 1.54B | 1.45M |
Aurora Innovation Technical Analysis
Positive
4.67
Price Trends
4.23
Positive
4.86
Negative
5.50
Negative
Market Momentum
0.11
Negative
60.38
Neutral
77.56
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AUR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4.67 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.29, above the 50-day MA of 4.23, and below the 200-day MA of 5.50, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.11 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.38 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 77.56 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AUR.
Aurora Innovation Risk Analysis
Aurora Innovation disclosed 67 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Aurora Innovation reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Aurora Innovation Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
62 Neutral | $8.54B | -25.39 | -2.80% | ― | 7.61% | 88.66% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
50 Neutral | $1.16B | -3.63 | -192.35% | ― | 89.90% | 5.13% | |
48 Neutral | $227.31M | -3.15 | -71.46% | ― | 46.09% | 46.01% | |
46 Neutral | $9.04B | -10.37 | -37.27% | ― | ― | 5.46% |
* Technology Sector Average
AUR
Aurora Innovation
4.67
-2.59
-35.67%
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MBLY
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10.50
-6.17
-37.01%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.