Luminar Technologies (LAZR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $85.27M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 10.28M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.21
• Revenue Growth: -5.22%
• EPS Growth: 84.74%
• Country: US
• Employees: 580
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Auto - Parts
• EPS (TTM): -1.49
• Shares Outstanding: 63,891,880
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 17,084,668
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 10,284,817
• PEG Ratio: 0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): -0.77
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.24
• P/FCF Ratio: -0.60
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 5.94
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 6.98
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -23.11
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -9.48
• 1Y Price Target: $2.50
• Price Target Upside: 117.39% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Sell
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): -4.61
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $70.10M

• Rating: 39 Underperform
• Price Target: $1.00 ▼(-13.04% Downside)

Luminar Technologies' overall stock score reflects significant financial and operational challenges. The company's negative financial performance, bearish technical indicators, and poor valuation metrics are major concerns. Although the earnings call highlighted some strategic initiatives and technical achievements, the substantial revenue declines and revised guidance underscore the risks. The stock remains a high-risk investment with potential volatility.

Positive Factors

Technical Milestone

Achieving this technical milestone enhances Luminar's competitive edge in LiDAR technology, crucial for autonomous vehicle applications, and strengthens its market position.

Cost Reduction Initiatives

The strategic exit from non-core areas and focus on cost reduction will improve Luminar's financial health, enhancing long-term profitability and operational efficiency.

Diversification into Commercial Markets

Diversifying into commercial markets with attractive unit economics can stabilize revenue streams and reduce dependency on the automotive sector.

Negative Factors

Revenue Decline

The decline in revenue indicates challenges in maintaining sales momentum, which could impact future growth and market confidence.

Unfavorable Sensor Economics

Selling sensors below production cost undermines profitability, posing a risk to financial stability if not addressed through volume increases or cost reductions.

Revised 2025 Guidance

The downward revision in revenue guidance reflects ongoing operational challenges and market uncertainties, potentially affecting investor confidence and strategic planning.

Luminar Technologies Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Luminar Technologies, Inc., an automotive technology company, provides sensor technologies and software for passenger cars and commercial trucks in North America, the Asia Pacific, Europe, and the Middle East. It operates in two segments, Autonomy Solutions and Components. The Autonomy Solutions segment designs, manufactures, and sells laser imaging, detection, and ranging sensors, as well as related perception and autonomy software solutions primarily for original equipment manufacturers in the automobile, commercial vehicle, robo-taxi, and adjacent industries. The Component segment develops ultra-sensitive pixel-based sensors. This segment also designs, tests, and provides consulting services for non-standard integrated circuits for use in automobile and aeronautics sector, as well as government spending in military and defense activities. The company was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in Orlando, Florida.

How the Company Makes Money

Luminar Technologies generates revenue primarily through the sale of its LiDAR products and related software solutions to automotive manufacturers and technology companies involved in the development of autonomous vehicles. The company's key revenue streams include direct sales of its LiDAR sensors, software licensing agreements, and long-term contracts with major automotive OEMs (Original Equipment Manufacturers). Significant partnerships with leading car manufacturers, such as Volvo and Daimler, contribute to its earnings by securing multi-year supply agreements and joint development initiatives. Additionally, Luminar is actively pursuing opportunities in adjacent markets, such as robotics and security, which may further diversify its revenue sources.

Luminar Technologies Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Luminar Technologies is facing significant financial challenges, with negative gross and net profit margins, declining revenues, and high operational inefficiencies. The balance sheet is unstable with negative equity and high leverage, while cash flow issues persist with negative cash generation and growth.

Income Statement

Luminar Technologies has faced significant challenges in its income statement. The company has consistently reported negative gross profit margins, indicating that the cost of goods sold exceeds revenue. The net profit margin is also deeply negative, reflecting substantial losses. Revenue growth has been inconsistent, with a notable decline in the TTM period. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are significantly negative, highlighting operational inefficiencies and high costs relative to revenue.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a precarious financial position for Luminar Technologies. The company has negative stockholders' equity, indicating liabilities exceed assets, which is a significant risk factor. The debt-to-equity ratio is negative, reflecting this imbalance. Return on equity is volatile and negative, suggesting poor returns on shareholders' investments. The equity ratio is also negative, further emphasizing financial instability.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement shows persistent negative operating and free cash flows, indicating cash outflows exceed inflows from operations. The free cash flow growth rate is negative, suggesting deteriorating cash generation capabilities. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is positive, indicating that cash losses are somewhat aligned with accounting losses. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, reflecting challenges in converting accounting profits to cash.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	72.50M	75.39M	69.78M	40.70M	31.94M	13.95M
Gross Profit	-21.92M	-25.69M	-72.69M	-60.28M	-14.15M	-11.00M
EBITDA	-53.39M	-242.80M	-551.71M	-443.47M	-239.85M	-364.90M
Net Income	-120.41M	-273.14M	-571.27M	-445.94M	-237.99M	-362.30M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	265.49M	365.21M	512.37M	687.33M	883.54M	510.35M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	107.63M	182.67M	289.82M	488.87M	792.12M	485.65M
Total Debt	451.66M	534.65M	660.66M	635.13M	619.46M	1.18M
Total Liabilities	513.46M	586.00M	737.12M	713.73M	685.55M	361.61M
Stockholders Equity	-247.97M	-220.79M	-224.75M	-26.41M	197.99M	148.74M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-219.38M	-281.72M	-269.22M	-226.30M	-154.85M	-77.84M
Operating Cash Flow	-215.65M	-276.63M	-247.30M	-208.23M	-148.42M	-75.64M
Investing Cash Flow	48.37M	42.46M	236.63M	27.99M	-194.19M	-271.79M
Financing Cash Flow	164.09M	178.26M	80.20M	-79.35M	463.59M	529.85M

Luminar Technologies Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1.15
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For LAZR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.15 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.81, below the 50-day MA of 1.93, and below the 200-day MA of 3.57, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.20 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.69 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.92 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for LAZR.

Luminar Technologies Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
ECX	56 Neutral	$823.02M	―	―	―	6.59%	55.85%
HSAI	48 Neutral	$4.50B	206.44	2.45%	―	36.76%	―
AEVA	48 Neutral	$776.20M	―	-192.35%	―	89.90%	5.13%
INVZ	41 Neutral	$339.31M	―	-72.45%	―	17.32%	37.70%
LIDR	40 Underperform	$89.07M	-0.77	-222.90%	―	-23.62%	71.09%
LAZR	39 Underperform	$85.27M	―	―	―	-5.22%	84.74%

Luminar Technologies Corporate Events

Luminar Technologies Faces Liquidity Challenges Amid Forbearance

On October 30, 2025, Luminar Technologies entered into forbearance agreements with holders of its senior secured notes after missing interest payments, as part of efforts to address liquidity challenges. The company is also reducing its workforce by 25% and is exploring strategic alternatives, including potential sales or restructuring, to improve its financial position. Additionally, Luminar is engaged in a dispute with Volvo over LiDAR product commitments, which has led to a breach notice from a key supplier. The company is facing significant financial uncertainties, including a potential SEC investigation and the need to raise additional capital to continue operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (LAZR) stock is a Hold with a $2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Luminar Technologies stock, see the LAZR Stock Forecast page.

Luminar Technologies: Mixed Sentiments in Earnings Call

In the recent earnings call, Luminar Technologies Inc. presented a mixed sentiment, highlighting significant technical achievements and strategic shifts towards commercial markets. The company showcased improvements in cost structures and a stronger balance sheet. However, these positives were overshadowed by challenges such as revenue declines, manufacturing transitions, and lower-than-expected sensor demand from key customers.

Luminar Technologies Reports Q2 2025 Financials

Luminar Technologies Inc. is a global technology company specializing in LiDAR hardware and software solutions for the automotive, commercial, and defense sectors, known for its proprietary technologies designed to enhance safety and autonomy. In its latest earnings report for the second quarter of 2025, Luminar announced a strategic shift towards focusing on core automotive and commercial markets while exiting non-core data and insurance businesses to improve operational efficiency and cost management.