Lottery Corporation Limited (AU:TLC)
ASX:TLC
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Lottery Corporation Limited
(Sydney:TLC)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
AU$5.50
▲(1.10% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/18/26
The score is driven primarily by mixed financial performance—strong cash generation offsets balance-sheet leverage and weaker revenue/profit trends. Technicals are neutral-to-soft with the share trading below key moving averages, while valuation looks rich on P/E despite a moderate yield. Earnings commentary was steady with reiterated guidance, but jackpot volatility and regulatory/licence risks remain meaningful near-term headwinds.
Positive Factors
Strong free cash flow
Consistent, strong free cash flow and high cash conversion provide durable funding for dividends, capex and strategic initiatives. This reduces reliance on external financing, supports shareholder returns and gives flexibility to weather jackpot volatility or fund digital investment without eroding liquidity.
Negative Factors
High leverage and low equity ratio
Significant leverage raises refinancing and interest-rate exposure risks and limits strategic optionality. With constrained equity buffers, adverse jackpot cycles or regulatory costs could force tougher capital allocation choices, potentially pressuring dividends, M&A capacity or investment pacing over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong free cash flow
Consistent, strong free cash flow and high cash conversion provide durable funding for dividends, capex and strategic initiatives. This reduces reliance on external financing, supports shareholder returns and gives flexibility to weather jackpot volatility or fund digital investment without eroding liquidity.
Read all positive factors
Lottery Corporation Limited (TLC) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$12.11B
Dividend Yield3.16%
Average Volume (3M)3.68M
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.6
Beta (1Y)0.50
Revenue Growth-6.28%
EPS Growth-11.67%
CountryAU
Employees3,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryGambling, Resorts & Casinos
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.08
Shares Outstanding2,225,771,700
10 Day Avg. Volume3,852,037
30 Day Avg. Volume3,678,235
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.05
Price to Book (P/B)36.85
Price to Sales (P/S)3.18
P/FCF Ratio25.23
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$5.78Price Target Upside6.25% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)0.17
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$3.87B
Lottery Corporation Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
The Lottery Corporation Limited engages in lottery and keno businesses in Australia. It operates under The Lott and Keno brand names. The company operates through a network of approximately 7,200 retail points, as well as digitally. The Lottery Co...
How the Company Makes Money
TLC primarily generates revenue through the sale of lottery tickets and game entries. The company operates a diverse portfolio of lottery games, which includes both physical and digital formats, allowing it to cater to a broad audience. A signific...
Lottery Corporation Limited Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 17, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 25, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call portrayed a broadly resilient business that delivered solid financial outcomes despite the weakest jackpot environment since listing. Key positives include stable revenue ($1.8bn), EBITDA resilience ($367m, down 0.7%), maintained dividend ($0.08 fully franked), strong digital traction (41.2% digital lottery turnover), Keno and Instant Scratch‑Its outperformance, and a healthy balance sheet with $560m liquidity. Offsetting these are significant short-term headwinds driven by jackpot variability (circa $400m turnover impact and ~$26m EBITDA drag), a fall in active customers to 8.6m, Powerball softness, and ongoing regulatory/license risks. Overall, management emphasized strategic opportunities in digital, product refreshes (Saturday Lotto, Set for Life) and disciplined capital allocation to drive growth and smooth volatility over time.Positive Updates
Resilient Revenue Base
Group revenue of $1.8 billion in H1 FY26, demonstrating diversification across games and channels that cushioned jackpot variability.
Negative Updates
Unusually Weak Jackpot Environment
H1 FY26 experienced the leanest jackpot run since listing; Division 1 offers for jackpot games were down 14% on the prior corresponding period, materially reducing participation.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Resilient Revenue Base
Group revenue of $1.8 billion in H1 FY26, demonstrating diversification across games and channels that cushioned jackpot variability.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated FY26 financial guidance and priorities: H1 revenue A$1.8bn, H1 EBITDA A$367m (‑0.7%), H1 OpEx A$146m (+2.9%) and FY26 OpEx guidance A$310–320m; H1 CapEx A$34m with FY26 CapEx guidance A$90–100m (ramping in H2). Net debt/EBITDA is ~3x (bottom of 3–4x target), available liquidity A$560m, average debt tenor 4.5 years and ~85% of debt fixed/hedged; interest expense rose 2%. Management confirmed an interim fully franked dividend of A$0.08 per share (103% of H1 NPAT), noted Division 1 offers were down 14% PCP with jackpot headwinds reducing turnover by ~A$400m and EBITDA by ~A$26m, and highlighted digital share at 41.2% alongside Keno retail +7%, online Keno +3.5%, Instant Scratch‑Its +8.5% and Lucky Lotteries +60%, while reiterating the aim to keep OpEx growth below normalized revenue growth and to detail strategy at an Investor Day mid‑year.Lottery Corporation Limited Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
70
Positive
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Cash Flow
80
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.76B | 3.73B | 3.98B | 3.50B | 3.28B | 2.95B |
| Gross Profit | 2.81B | 3.73B | 3.07B | 2.74B | 2.65B | 2.36B |
| EBITDA | 744.20M | 763.70M | 788.90M | 608.70M | 586.80M | 498.30M |
| Net Income | 363.10M | 365.50M | 414.00M | 264.80M | 346.60M | 399.30M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.46B | 4.41B | 4.36B | 4.37B | 4.22B | 2.71B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 580.80M | 550.50M | 504.00M | 841.30M | 640.50M | 427.20M |
| Total Debt | 2.58B | 2.50B | 2.48B | 2.55B | 2.49B | 3.20M |
| Total Liabilities | 4.12B | 4.08B | 4.00B | 4.11B | 3.97B | 2.44B |
| Stockholders Equity | 339.60M | 321.80M | 363.10M | 264.80M | 242.80M | 272.30M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 528.50M | 470.10M | 424.30M | 376.90M | 600.00M | 287.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 617.10M | 541.70M | 492.80M | 456.50M | 624.40M | 308.90M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -111.50M | -96.00M | -87.60M | -121.20M | -63.50M | 19.20M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -417.70M | -414.70M | -393.80M | -217.00M | -456.60M | -330.70M |
Lottery Corporation Limited Technical Analysis
Positive
5.44
Price Trends
5.25
Positive
5.23
Positive
5.34
Positive
Market Momentum
0.03
Positive
59.05
Neutral
75.62
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:TLC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.44 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.40, above the 50-day MA of 5.25, and above the 200-day MA of 5.34, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 59.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.62 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:TLC.
Lottery Corporation Limited Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | AU$496.50M | 11.68 | 30.58% | 4.84% | -8.81% | -6.84% | |
64 Neutral | AU$2.19B | 26.11 | 2.62% | 2.01% | 8.62% | ― | |
62 Neutral | AU$12.11B | 16.56 | 109.80% | 3.16% | -6.28% | -11.67% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
49 Neutral | AU$213.63M | -1.63 | -22.97% | ― | 126.29% | 95.17% | |
45 Neutral | AU$190.45M | -14.86 | -13.44% | ― | -10.59% | 32.75% | |
43 Neutral | AU$295.45M | -3.53 | 653.24% | ― | 6.47% | 60.03% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
AU:TLC
Lottery Corporation Limited
5.44
0.82
17.72%
AU:PBH
PointsBet Holdings
0.85
-0.23
-21.30%
AU:TAH
Tabcorp Holdings Limited
0.96
0.34
55.54%
AU:BET
Betmakers Technology Group
0.17
0.07
70.00%
AU:JIN
Jumbo Interactive Limited
7.84
-2.47
-23.98%
AU:BBT
BlueBet Holdings Ltd.
0.21
-0.15
-41.43%
Lottery Corporation Limited Corporate Events
Lottery Corporation corrects performance rights records after administrative oversight
Feb 10, 2026
The Lottery Corporation Limited has adjusted its recorded performance rights following a reconciliation that identified discrepancies in movements under its long-term incentive plans. The review confirmed that 921,565 performance rights were conve...
The Lottery Corporation Announces Lapse of 486,343 Performance Rights
Feb 3, 2026
The Lottery Corporation Limited has notified the market that 486,343 performance rights (ASX code TLCAA) have lapsed after the conditions attached to these rights were not met or became incapable of being satisfied, effective 30 January 2026. The ...
Lottery Corporation Sets February Date for Half-Year Results and Interim Dividend Timetable
Jan 13, 2026
The Lottery Corporation Limited has set 18 February 2026, prior to market open, as the date to release its half-year financial results for the six months ended 31 December 2025, followed by a results briefing webcast at 10:30am Melbourne time on t...
Wayne Pickup Appointed as CEO of The Lottery Corporation
Dec 8, 2025
The Lottery Corporation Limited has announced the appointment of Wayne Pickup as the new Managing Director and Chief Executive. This appointment is expected to influence the company’s strategic direction and potentially impact its market ope...
Lottery Corporation Appoints Wayne Pickup as CEO
Dec 8, 2025
The Lottery Corporation has announced the appointment of Mr. Wayne Pickup as a Director, who will also assume the role of Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer. This leadership change is expected to influence the company’s strategic ...
Sue van der Merwe Resigns from The Lottery Corporation Board
Nov 27, 2025
The Lottery Corporation Limited announced the resignation of Sue van der Merwe from her position as a director, effective 27 November 2025. This change in the board’s composition may impact the company’s strategic direction and stakeho...
The Lottery Corporation Announces New CEO Appointment
Nov 26, 2025
The Lottery Corporation Limited has announced the appointment of Wayne Pickup as the new Chief Executive Officer and observer to the Board, with plans for him to become Managing Director following administrative formalities. This leadership change...
Lottery Corporation Addresses Late Lodgement of Appendix 3G
Nov 20, 2025
The Lottery Corporation Limited announced a late lodgement of Appendix 3G related to performance rights granted under its employee incentive plan for FY26. The delay was attributed to an administrative oversight, which the company has addressed, a...
The Lottery Corporation Issues New Performance Rights
Nov 20, 2025
The Lottery Corporation Limited announced the issuance of 1,362,457 unquoted performance rights as part of an employee incentive scheme. This move is aimed at aligning employee interests with company performance, potentially impacting the company&...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.