Tabcorp Holdings Limited (AU:TAH)
ASX:TAH
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Tabcorp Holdings Limited
(Sydney:TAH)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
AU$0.74
▼(-26.10% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals (strong free cash flow growth and better leverage) and a materially positive earnings call (higher EBITDA, margin expansion, and stronger balance sheet). Offsetting this are weak technicals (price below key moving averages and low RSI) and a valuation that looks demanding (P/E 26.11) relative to still-thin profitability.
Positive Factors
Strong free cash flow & conversion
Very strong free cash flow growth (101.75%) and healthy cash conversion ratios indicate durable cash generation. This supports ongoing capex for EBT rollouts, funds debt paydown, underpins dividend capacity and gives management financial optionality to execute strategy over 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Thin net margins & low ROE
Very low net margins and modest ROE constrain the firm's capacity to self-fund growth and buffer shocks. With limited profit per dollar revenue, operational or yield setbacks can quickly erode earnings and slow ROE improvement despite revenue and EBITDA gains.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong free cash flow & conversion
Very strong free cash flow growth (101.75%) and healthy cash conversion ratios indicate durable cash generation. This supports ongoing capex for EBT rollouts, funds debt paydown, underpins dividend capacity and gives management financial optionality to execute strategy over 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Tabcorp Holdings Limited (TAH) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$1.55B
Dividend Yield2.01%
Average Volume (3M)7.82M
Price to Earnings (P/E)26.1
Beta (1Y)1.11
Revenue Growth5.46%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryAU
Employees5,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryGambling, Resorts & Casinos
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)<0.01
Shares Outstanding2,292,644,300
10 Day Avg. Volume6,708,262
30 Day Avg. Volume7,815,337
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.43
Price to Book (P/B)1.30
Price to Sales (P/S)0.62
P/FCF Ratio5.66
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$1.07Price Target Upside7.33% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)0.03
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$2.64B
Tabcorp Holdings Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Tabcorp Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides gambling and entertainment services in Australia. It operates through Wagering and Media, and Gaming Services segments. The Wagering and Media segment offers through a network of T...
How the Company Makes Money
Tabcorp primarily makes money from wagering and media-related activities. Its main revenue stream is wagering: it earns a margin on bets placed by customers (the difference between amounts wagered and payouts to winning customers), generated throu...
Tabcorp Holdings Limited Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 24, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 26, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed materially positive financial progress and strategic execution: revenue and earnings grew, margins expanded, leverage fell to a conservative 1.5x and product/retail initiatives advanced (EBTs, TAB Live clearance, national tote work). Headwinds include below-average wagering yields that reduced revenue (~15 bps / ~$10m), ongoing technology inflation, timing-related cash items and regulatory execution risk for national rollouts. On balance, achievements and improvements in earnings, cost discipline, balance sheet flexibility and product momentum outweigh the challenges.Positive Updates
Revenue and Earnings Growth
Group revenue grew 1% to $1.34 billion; variable contribution increased 4.3%; EBITDA rose 14.3% to $217.4 million; EBIT increased 18.9% to $110.2 million; NPAT before significant items grew 61.5%.
Negative Updates
Below-Average Wagering Yields and Revenue Pressure
Domestic wagering revenue pre-VRI fell by 2.5% despite modest turnover growth; below-average yields (customer-friendly racing/sport outcomes during AFL/NRL finals and Spring Carnival) lowered yield by ~15 basis points, estimated to reduce net revenue by ~A$10 million versus long-term averages.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and Earnings Growth
Group revenue grew 1% to $1.34 billion; variable contribution increased 4.3%; EBITDA rose 14.3% to $217.4 million; EBIT increased 18.9% to $110.2 million; NPAT before significant items grew 61.5%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance from the call was that Tabcorp expects H2 wagering turnover conditions to be similar to H1 (modest growth broadly in line with ~0.3% H1 turnover growth), with full-year CapEx guidance unchanged at A$120–140m (H1 CapEx was A$51m, down 11% PCP), and an uplift in H2 CapEx driven by rollout of modernized EBTs (first week of July) and venue terminal spend tied to the new retail model; TAB Live will commence in NSW following ACMA clearance with rollouts in other states subject to approvals, and the national tote remains targeted by the end of FY26. Financial guidance/positions highlighted: H1 EBITDA A$217.4m (+14.3%) with margin of 16.2% (+190bps), group revenue A$1.34bn (+1%), variable contribution +4.3%, OpEx down 1.1% (or −3.7% adjusted for the Victorian wagering reform), NPAT before significant items +61.5%, interim dividend A$0.015/share (56% payout, +50% PCP), H1 cash conversion 86% with expected full‑year cash conversion 90–100%, leverage 1.5x net debt/EBITDA (well below <2.5x target), AMTN issued A$300m at 5.99% (5.5‑year tenor) taking average maturity to 5.4 years, H1 cash interest A$54.6m (includes A$24.9m Victorian license payment so H2 cash interest expected closer to ~A$30m), and management noted a ~15bp (~A$10m) adverse net yield impact in the period and that the Victorian wagering reform contributed ~A$12.2m to EBITDA.Tabcorp Holdings Limited Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
65
Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
75
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.16B | 2.61B | 2.34B | 2.10B | 2.01B | 2.15B |
| Gross Profit | 418.60M | 2.61B | 2.34B | 342.60M | 236.50M | 297.80M |
| EBITDA | 378.60M | 368.80M | -1.35B | 362.80M | 276.00M | 344.10M |
| Net Income | 33.00M | 36.60M | -1.36B | 66.50M | 6.78B | 269.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.14B | 3.14B | 3.39B | 4.05B | 4.05B | 11.87B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 218.30M | 236.50M | 313.70M | 290.70M | 199.40M | 553.30M |
| Total Debt | 949.00M | 862.60M | 1.14B | 572.40M | 317.00M | 2.78B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.87B | 1.89B | 2.14B | 1.39B | 1.34B | 5.17B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.27B | 1.25B | 1.25B | 2.66B | 2.71B | 6.70B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 207.30M | 288.70M | 84.80M | -77.60M | 534.50M | 537.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 329.80M | 406.50M | 245.20M | 119.30M | 737.00M | 719.50M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -121.70M | -117.00M | -739.70M | -130.00M | -455.70M | -37.60M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -250.10M | -366.70M | 517.50M | 102.00M | -506.30M | -607.20M |
Tabcorp Holdings Limited Technical Analysis
Negative
1.00
Price Trends
0.96
Negative
0.95
Negative
0.94
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.09
Positive
23.64
Positive
3.30
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:TAH, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.95, above the 50-day MA of 0.96, and above the 200-day MA of 0.94, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.09 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 23.64 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 3.30 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:TAH.
Tabcorp Holdings Limited Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | AU$30.90B | 8.63 | 23.84% | 1.60% | -1.22% | 10.79% | |
69 Neutral | AU$1.55B | 26.11 | 2.62% | 2.01% | 5.46% | ― | |
62 Neutral | AU$11.69B | 16.56 | 109.80% | 3.16% | -2.78% | -2.45% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
45 Neutral | AU$176.97M | -1.63 | -22.97% | ― | 51.36% | 76.07% | |
43 Neutral | AU$361.49M | -3.53 | 653.24% | ― | 5.56% | 8.45% | |
40 Underperform | AU$696.70M | -1.45 | -57.00% | ― | -26.19% | 89.24% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
AU:TAH
Tabcorp Holdings Limited
0.69
<0.01
0.29%
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BlueBet Holdings Ltd.
0.17
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AU:TLC
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5.33
0.15
2.80%
Tabcorp Holdings Limited Corporate Events
AUSTRAC Launches Enforcement Probe into Tabcorp’s AML/CTF Compliance
May 7, 2026
Tabcorp Holdings has disclosed that AUSTRAC, Australia’s financial intelligence and regulatory agency, has launched an enforcement investigation into the company’s anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing compliance. The r...
Vanguard Lifts Stake in Tabcorp to Just Over 6%
May 6, 2026
Tabcorp has disclosed that global investment manager Vanguard Group has increased its relevant interest in the company to 138,212,274 ordinary shares, representing 6.029% of Tabcorp’s voting power. While this stake remains below the 10% voti...
Aware Super Ceases to Be Substantial Shareholder in Tabcorp
Apr 22, 2026
Tabcorp Holdings has disclosed that institutional investor Aware Super Pty Ltd, acting as trustee for Aware Super, has ceased to be a substantial shareholder in the company as of 17 April 2026. The change in ownership comes against a backdrop of s...
Aware Super Ceases to Be Substantial Shareholder in Tabcorp
Apr 22, 2026
Aware Super Pty Ltd, as trustee of Aware Super, has lodged a notice stating it ceased to be a substantial shareholder in Tabcorp Holdings Limited as of 17 April 2026. The filing, made under Australia’s Corporations Act, indicates that Aware ...
Yarra Capital Exits Substantial Shareholder Position in Tabcorp
Apr 21, 2026
Yarra Capital Management and related entities have notified Tabcorp Holdings that they have ceased to be substantial shareholders in the company as of 17 April 2026. Over the period from 15 January to 17 April, the group disclosed total purchases ...
Australian Retirement Trust Exits Substantial Shareholding in Tabcorp
Apr 15, 2026
Tabcorp has disclosed that Australian Retirement Trust Pty Ltd, as trustee for Australian Retirement Trust, has ceased to be a substantial shareholder in the company as of 13 April 2026. The change in ownership occurs against a backdrop of strict ...
Australian Retirement Trust Ceases to Be Substantial Holder in Tabcorp
Apr 15, 2026
Australian Retirement Trust Pty Ltd, as trustee for the Australian Retirement Trust, has notified Tabcorp Holdings Limited that it has ceased to be a substantial shareholder in the company as of 13 April 2026. The change, lodged under Australia...
Tabcorp Reports Cessation of 4.6 Million Options on Issue
Apr 2, 2026
Tabcorp Holdings Limited has notified the ASX of the cessation of a total of 4,588,000 options on issue, comprising 1,860,000 options expiring in August 2029 with an exercise price of $1.0619 and 2,728,000 options expiring in August 2028 with an e...
Tabcorp Seeks ASX Quotation for New Dividend Plan Shares
Mar 20, 2026
Tabcorp Holdings Limited has applied to the ASX for quotation of 3,424,894 new ordinary fully paid shares, to be issued on 24 March 2026. These securities are being issued under a dividend or distribution plan, modestly increasing the company̵...
Macquarie Exits as Substantial Shareholder in Tabcorp Amid Ownership Limits
Mar 18, 2026
Tabcorp Holdings Limited has disclosed that Macquarie Group Limited and its controlled entities have ceased to be a substantial shareholder in the company as of 13 March 2026. The notice, released under ASX Listing Rule 3.19, highlights that Tabco...
Macquarie Exits Substantial Shareholder Position in Tabcorp
Mar 18, 2026
Macquarie Group Limited has lodged a notice that it has ceased to be a substantial shareholder in Tabcorp Holdings, indicating its aggregate voting power has fallen below the relevant disclosure threshold. The change, formalised in mid‑March...
Tabcorp Sets Dividend Reinvestment Plan Price for December 2025 Distribution
Mar 12, 2026
Tabcorp Holdings has updated its notification regarding a dividend on its ordinary fully paid shares for the six-month period ended 31 December 2025. The company confirmed key dates including the ex-dividend date of 2 March 2026 and record date of...
Macquarie Group Exits Substantial Shareholder Position in Tabcorp
Mar 10, 2026
Tabcorp Holdings Limited has disclosed that Macquarie Group Limited and its controlled entities have ceased to be a substantial shareholder in the company as of 5 March 2026. The change in Macquarie’s holding comes against a backdrop of stri...
Macquarie exits substantial holder status in Tabcorp
Mar 10, 2026
Macquarie Group Limited and a range of its controlled entities have lodged a notice that they have ceased to be a substantial holder in Tabcorp Holdings. The filing, made under Australia’s Corporations Act, reflects changes in Macquarie̵...
Tabcorp posts 1H26 results presentation and investor webcast
Feb 24, 2026
Tabcorp Holdings Limited has released a presentation detailing its half-year results for the six months ended 31 December 2025, with the materials made available via a webcast on its investor website. The document is intended to be read alongside ...
Tabcorp lifts earnings and dividend as cost cuts and strategy gains traction
Feb 24, 2026
Tabcorp Holdings Limited reported half-year 2026 group revenue of $1.34 billion, up 1% on the prior corresponding period, with EBITDA rising 14.3% to $217.4 million as cost reductions and operating leverage lifted the EBITDA margin to 16.2%. The w...
Tabcorp Declares Interim Dividend for Half-Year to December 2025
Feb 24, 2026
Tabcorp Holdings Limited has declared an interim dividend of A$0.015 per ordinary fully paid share, relating to the six-month period ended 31 December 2025. The payment will be made on 24 March 2026, with the stock trading ex-dividend on 2 March a...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.