Tabcorp Holdings Limited (AU:TAH)
ASX:TAH
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Tabcorp Holdings Limited
(Sydney:TAH)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
AU$1.00
▲(7.53% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/26/26
The score is driven mainly by improving fundamentals and strong cash flow alongside a positive earnings update (profit/margin improvement and lower leverage). This is tempered by expensive valuation (high P/E vs modest yield) and mixed technical signals with momentum looking stretched despite the uptrend.
Positive Factors
Strong free cash flow growth
A >100% free cash flow growth rate and FCF/net income ~0.71 indicate durable cash generation. Strong cash conversion supports repeatable capital allocation: funding capex for retail/digital rollouts, lowering leverage, sustaining dividends and absorbing cyclical revenue swings without urgent financing.
Negative Factors
Low net profit margin and modest ROE
A net margin near 1.4% and ROE under 3% signal limited retained profitability after industry payments and costs. Even with margin gains, low underlying returns constrain reinvestment capacity and shareholder returns, making capital allocation outcomes and efficiency improvements critical to long‑term value.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong free cash flow growth
A >100% free cash flow growth rate and FCF/net income ~0.71 indicate durable cash generation. Strong cash conversion supports repeatable capital allocation: funding capex for retail/digital rollouts, lowering leverage, sustaining dividends and absorbing cyclical revenue swings without urgent financing.
Read all positive factors
Tabcorp Holdings Limited (TAH) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$2.13B
Dividend Yield2.01%
Average Volume (3M)7.82M
Price to Earnings (P/E)26.1
Beta (1Y)1.21
Revenue Growth8.62%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryAU
Employees5,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryGambling, Resorts & Casinos
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.03
Shares Outstanding2,292,644,300
10 Day Avg. Volume6,708,262
30 Day Avg. Volume7,815,337
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.43
Price to Book (P/B)1.30
Price to Sales (P/S)0.62
P/FCF Ratio5.66
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$1.10Price Target Upside18.64% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)0.03
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$2.64B
Tabcorp Holdings Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Tabcorp Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides gambling and entertainment services in Australia. It operates through Wagering and Media, and Gaming Services segments. The Wagering and Media segment offers through a network of T...
How the Company Makes Money
Tabcorp generates revenue through multiple key streams: its Wagering and Media segment earns money from betting services on sports and races, both online and through retail outlets. The Lotteries and Keno segment contributes significantly through ...
Tabcorp Holdings Limited Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 24, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 25, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed materially positive financial progress and strategic execution: revenue and earnings grew, margins expanded, leverage fell to a conservative 1.5x and product/retail initiatives advanced (EBTs, TAB Live clearance, national tote work). Headwinds include below-average wagering yields that reduced revenue (~15 bps / ~$10m), ongoing technology inflation, timing-related cash items and regulatory execution risk for national rollouts. On balance, achievements and improvements in earnings, cost discipline, balance sheet flexibility and product momentum outweigh the challenges.Positive Updates
Revenue and Earnings Growth
Group revenue grew 1% to $1.34 billion; variable contribution increased 4.3%; EBITDA rose 14.3% to $217.4 million; EBIT increased 18.9% to $110.2 million; NPAT before significant items grew 61.5%.
Negative Updates
Below-Average Wagering Yields and Revenue Pressure
Domestic wagering revenue pre-VRI fell by 2.5% despite modest turnover growth; below-average yields (customer-friendly racing/sport outcomes during AFL/NRL finals and Spring Carnival) lowered yield by ~15 basis points, estimated to reduce net revenue by ~A$10 million versus long-term averages.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and Earnings Growth
Group revenue grew 1% to $1.34 billion; variable contribution increased 4.3%; EBITDA rose 14.3% to $217.4 million; EBIT increased 18.9% to $110.2 million; NPAT before significant items grew 61.5%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance from the call was that Tabcorp expects H2 wagering turnover conditions to be similar to H1 (modest growth broadly in line with ~0.3% H1 turnover growth), with full-year CapEx guidance unchanged at A$120–140m (H1 CapEx was A$51m, down 11% PCP), and an uplift in H2 CapEx driven by rollout of modernized EBTs (first week of July) and venue terminal spend tied to the new retail model; TAB Live will commence in NSW following ACMA clearance with rollouts in other states subject to approvals, and the national tote remains targeted by the end of FY26. Financial guidance/positions highlighted: H1 EBITDA A$217.4m (+14.3%) with margin of 16.2% (+190bps), group revenue A$1.34bn (+1%), variable contribution +4.3%, OpEx down 1.1% (or −3.7% adjusted for the Victorian wagering reform), NPAT before significant items +61.5%, interim dividend A$0.015/share (56% payout, +50% PCP), H1 cash conversion 86% with expected full‑year cash conversion 90–100%, leverage 1.5x net debt/EBITDA (well below <2.5x target), AMTN issued A$300m at 5.99% (5.5‑year tenor) taking average maturity to 5.4 years, H1 cash interest A$54.6m (includes A$24.9m Victorian license payment so H2 cash interest expected closer to ~A$30m), and management noted a ~15bp (~A$10m) adverse net yield impact in the period and that the Victorian wagering reform contributed ~A$12.2m to EBITDA.Tabcorp Holdings Limited Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
65
Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
75
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.16B | 2.61B | 2.34B | 2.10B | 2.01B | 2.15B |
| Gross Profit | 418.60M | 2.61B | 2.34B | 342.60M | 236.50M | 297.80M |
| EBITDA | 378.60M | 368.80M | -1.35B | 362.80M | 276.00M | 344.10M |
| Net Income | 33.00M | 36.60M | -1.36B | 66.50M | 6.78B | 269.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.14B | 3.14B | 3.39B | 4.05B | 4.05B | 11.87B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 218.30M | 236.50M | 313.70M | 290.70M | 199.40M | 553.30M |
| Total Debt | 949.00M | 862.60M | 1.14B | 572.40M | 317.00M | 2.78B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.87B | 1.89B | 2.14B | 1.39B | 1.34B | 5.17B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.27B | 1.25B | 1.25B | 2.66B | 2.71B | 6.70B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 207.30M | 288.70M | 84.80M | -77.60M | 534.50M | 537.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 329.80M | 406.50M | 245.20M | 119.30M | 737.00M | 719.50M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -121.70M | -117.00M | -739.70M | -130.00M | -455.70M | -37.60M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -250.10M | -366.70M | 517.50M | 102.00M | -506.30M | -607.20M |
Tabcorp Holdings Limited Technical Analysis
Negative
0.93
Price Trends
0.94
Negative
0.94
Negative
0.91
Positive
Market Momentum
>-0.01
Positive
43.60
Neutral
21.05
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:TAH, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.93 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.97, below the 50-day MA of 0.94, and above the 200-day MA of 0.91, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.60 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.05 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:TAH.
Tabcorp Holdings Limited Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | AU$492.70M | 11.68 | 30.58% | 4.84% | -8.81% | -6.84% | |
64 Neutral | AU$2.13B | 26.11 | 2.62% | 2.01% | 8.62% | ― | |
62 Neutral | AU$12.02B | 16.56 | 109.80% | 3.16% | -6.28% | -11.67% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
49 Neutral | AU$197.80M | -1.63 | -22.97% | ― | 126.29% | 95.17% | |
43 Neutral | AU$763.05M | -1.45 | -57.00% | ― | -31.07% | 74.57% | |
43 Neutral | AU$302.40M | -3.53 | 653.24% | ― | 6.47% | 60.03% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
AU:TAH
Tabcorp Holdings Limited
0.93
0.41
79.88%
AU:SGR
Star Entertainment Group Limited
0.12
<0.01
4.55%
AU:PBH
PointsBet Holdings
0.87
-0.15
-15.12%
AU:JIN
Jumbo Interactive Limited
7.78
-1.66
-17.56%
AU:BBT
BlueBet Holdings Ltd.
0.19
-0.07
-26.92%
AU:TLC
Lottery Corporation Limited
5.40
0.79
17.09%
Tabcorp Holdings Limited Corporate Events
Tabcorp posts 1H26 results presentation and investor webcast
Feb 24, 2026
Tabcorp Holdings Limited has released a presentation detailing its half-year results for the six months ended 31 December 2025, with the materials made available via a webcast on its investor website. The document is intended to be read alongside ...
Tabcorp lifts earnings and dividend as cost cuts and strategy gains traction
Feb 24, 2026
Tabcorp Holdings Limited reported half-year 2026 group revenue of $1.34 billion, up 1% on the prior corresponding period, with EBITDA rising 14.3% to $217.4 million as cost reductions and operating leverage lifted the EBITDA margin to 16.2%. The w...
Tabcorp Declares Interim Dividend for Half-Year to December 2025
Feb 24, 2026
Tabcorp Holdings Limited has declared an interim dividend of A$0.015 per ordinary fully paid share, relating to the six-month period ended 31 December 2025. The payment will be made on 24 March 2026, with the stock trading ex-dividend on 2 March a...
Tabcorp Flags Macquarie’s Exit as Substantial Shareholder Under Strict Ownership Caps
Feb 10, 2026
Tabcorp Holdings Limited has disclosed that Macquarie Group Limited and its controlled entities have ceased to be a substantial shareholder in the company as of 5 February 2026. The change in Macquarie’s position comes against a backdrop of ...
Macquarie Group Ceases to Be a Substantial Holder in Tabcorp
Feb 10, 2026
Macquarie Group Limited and its controlled entities have filed a notice stating they have ceased to be substantial holders in Tabcorp Holdings Limited. The filing, lodged under Australian corporations law, confirms that Macquarie and associated en...
Macquarie Group Emerges as Substantial Shareholder in Tabcorp
Feb 9, 2026
Tabcorp Holdings Limited has disclosed that Macquarie Group Limited and its controlled entities have become a substantial shareholder in the company. Macquarie now holds a relevant interest in 116,112,236 Tabcorp ordinary shares, representing 5.07...
Yarra Group Takes 5.02% Substantial Stake in Tabcorp
Jan 16, 2026
Tabcorp Holdings Limited has disclosed that a group of related Yarra entities, including Yarra Capital Management Limited and Yarra Funds Management Limited, has become a substantial shareholder in the company, acquiring a relevant interest in 114...
Yarra Capital Group Discloses 5% Stake in Tabcorp
Jan 16, 2026
Yarra Capital Management and related entities have emerged as substantial shareholders in Tabcorp Holdings Limited, disclosing a 5.02% voting power in the company. The group, through various controlled entities and managed investment schemes, hold...
Macquarie Group Drops Below Substantial Holder Threshold in Tabcorp
Jan 15, 2026
Tabcorp Holdings has disclosed that Macquarie Group Limited has ceased to be a substantial shareholder in the company as of 12 January 2026, following Macquarie’s notification to the market. The change in Macquarie’s holding occurs wit...
Macquarie Group Exits Substantial Shareholding in Tabcorp
Jan 15, 2026
Macquarie Group Limited and its controlled entities have lodged a notice that they have ceased to be a substantial holder in Tabcorp Holdings Limited, signalling that their relevant interest in Tabcorp’s voting securities has fallen below th...
Macquarie Group Emerges as Substantial Shareholder in Tabcorp
Jan 14, 2026
Tabcorp Holdings Limited has disclosed that Macquarie Group Limited has become a substantial shareholder in the company, acquiring a relevant interest in 114,746,289 ordinary shares, equivalent to 5.01% of Tabcorp’s voting power. The new sta...
Tabcorp Notes Macquarie’s Exit as Substantial Shareholder Amid Strict Ownership Caps
Dec 29, 2025
Tabcorp has disclosed that Macquarie Group Limited ceased to be a substantial shareholder in the company as of 22 December 2025, following Macquarie’s notification to the market. The announcement underscores Tabcorp’s stringent shareho...
Macquarie Group Ceases to Be Substantial Holder in Tabcorp
Dec 29, 2025
Macquarie Group Limited and its controlled entities have lodged a notice that they have ceased to be a substantial holder in Tabcorp Holdings Limited, in accordance with Australian Corporations Act disclosure requirements. The change in Macquarie&...
Macquarie Takes 5% Stake in Tabcorp Amid Strict Ownership Limits
Dec 22, 2025
Tabcorp has disclosed that Macquarie Group Limited has become a substantial shareholder, acquiring a 5.01% stake in the company, equivalent to 114,646,686 fully paid ordinary shares. The company highlighted that its constitution, together with app...
Australian Retirement Trust Takes 5% Stake in Tabcorp Under Strict Ownership Caps
Dec 22, 2025
Tabcorp Holdings has disclosed that Australian Retirement Trust has become a substantial shareholder in the company, acquiring a 5.031% stake amounting to 115,164,720 ordinary shares as of 18 December 2025. The company reiterated that its share re...
Tabcorp Confirms Macquarie Exits Substantial Shareholder Status Amid Strict Ownership Limits
Dec 19, 2025
Tabcorp has disclosed that Macquarie Group Limited has ceased to be a substantial shareholder in the company as of 15 December 2025, following Macquarie’s announcement to the market. The company reminded investors that its constitution and r...
Macquarie Group Ceases Substantial Holding in Tabcorp Holdings
Dec 18, 2025
Macquarie Group Limited (and its associated entities) has ceased being a substantial holder in Tabcorp Holdings Limited, an organization operating in the gambling and entertainment industry. This change reflects adjustments in Macquarie’s vo...
Macquarie Group Acquires Substantial Stake in Tabcorp
Dec 17, 2025
Tabcorp Holdings Limited announced that Macquarie Group Limited has become a substantial shareholder, acquiring a 5.06% interest in the company. This development is significant due to the strict regulatory restrictions on shareholding and voting p...
Aware Super Acquires Substantial Stake in Tabcorp Holdings
Dec 3, 2025
Tabcorp Holdings Limited has announced that Aware Super Pty Ltd has become a substantial shareholder, acquiring a 5.16% stake in the company. This development highlights the regulatory framework governing shareholding in Tabcorp, which includes re...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.