Tabcorp Holdings Limited (AU:TAH)
ASX:TAH
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Tabcorp Holdings Limited
(Sydney:TAH)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
AU$0.96
▼(-4.20% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals (strong free cash flow growth and better leverage) and a materially positive earnings call (higher EBITDA, margin expansion, and stronger balance sheet). Offsetting this are weak technicals (price below key moving averages and low RSI) and a valuation that looks demanding (P/E 26.11) relative to still-thin profitability.
Positive Factors
Free cash flow generation
A 101.75% free cash flow growth, with operating cash flow to net income of 0.56 and free cash flow to net income of 0.71, signals durable cash conversion. Strong FCF supports capex, dividends, debt paydown and strategic investment over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Low net profitability
A 1.40% net margin indicates limited bottom‑line resilience despite EBITDA improvements. Low net profitability constrains retained earnings, limits buffer for adverse wagering yields or regulatory costs, and reduces capacity to raise returns to equity holders.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Free cash flow generation
A 101.75% free cash flow growth, with operating cash flow to net income of 0.56 and free cash flow to net income of 0.71, signals durable cash conversion. Strong FCF supports capex, dividends, debt paydown and strategic investment over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Tabcorp Holdings Limited (TAH) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$1.88B
Dividend Yield2.01%
Average Volume (3M)7.82M
Price to Earnings (P/E)57.4
Beta (1Y)1.25
Revenue Growth5.46%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryAU
Employees5,100
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryMedia & Entertainment
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.01
Shares Outstanding2,292,644,300
10 Day Avg. Volume6,708,262
30 Day Avg. Volume7,815,337
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.44
Price to Book (P/B)1.30
Price to Sales (P/S)0.62
P/FCF Ratio5.66
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$1.04Price Target Upside4.00% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)0.03
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$2.64B
Tabcorp Holdings Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Tabcorp Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides gambling, and entertainment and integrity services in Australia. It operates through Wagering and Media, and Integrity Services segments. The Wagering and Media segment offers tota...
How the Company Makes Money
Tabcorp primarily makes money from wagering and media-related activities. Its main revenue stream is wagering: it earns a margin on bets placed by customers (the difference between amounts wagered and payouts to winning customers), generated throu...
Tabcorp Holdings Limited Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 24, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 26, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed materially positive financial progress and strategic execution: revenue and earnings grew, margins expanded, leverage fell to a conservative 1.5x and product/retail initiatives advanced (EBTs, TAB Live clearance, national tote work). Headwinds include below-average wagering yields that reduced revenue (~15 bps / ~$10m), ongoing technology inflation, timing-related cash items and regulatory execution risk for national rollouts. On balance, achievements and improvements in earnings, cost discipline, balance sheet flexibility and product momentum outweigh the challenges.Positive Updates
Revenue and Earnings Growth
Group revenue grew 1% to $1.34 billion; variable contribution increased 4.3%; EBITDA rose 14.3% to $217.4 million; EBIT increased 18.9% to $110.2 million; NPAT before significant items grew 61.5%.
Negative Updates
Below-Average Wagering Yields and Revenue Pressure
Domestic wagering revenue pre-VRI fell by 2.5% despite modest turnover growth; below-average yields (customer-friendly racing/sport outcomes during AFL/NRL finals and Spring Carnival) lowered yield by ~15 basis points, estimated to reduce net revenue by ~A$10 million versus long-term averages.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and Earnings Growth
Group revenue grew 1% to $1.34 billion; variable contribution increased 4.3%; EBITDA rose 14.3% to $217.4 million; EBIT increased 18.9% to $110.2 million; NPAT before significant items grew 61.5%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance from the call was that Tabcorp expects H2 wagering turnover conditions to be similar to H1 (modest growth broadly in line with ~0.3% H1 turnover growth), with full-year CapEx guidance unchanged at A$120–140m (H1 CapEx was A$51m, down 11% PCP), and an uplift in H2 CapEx driven by rollout of modernized EBTs (first week of July) and venue terminal spend tied to the new retail model; TAB Live will commence in NSW following ACMA clearance with rollouts in other states subject to approvals, and the national tote remains targeted by the end of FY26. Financial guidance/positions highlighted: H1 EBITDA A$217.4m (+14.3%) with margin of 16.2% (+190bps), group revenue A$1.34bn (+1%), variable contribution +4.3%, OpEx down 1.1% (or −3.7% adjusted for the Victorian wagering reform), NPAT before significant items +61.5%, interim dividend A$0.015/share (56% payout, +50% PCP), H1 cash conversion 86% with expected full‑year cash conversion 90–100%, leverage 1.5x net debt/EBITDA (well below <2.5x target), AMTN issued A$300m at 5.99% (5.5‑year tenor) taking average maturity to 5.4 years, H1 cash interest A$54.6m (includes A$24.9m Victorian license payment so H2 cash interest expected closer to ~A$30m), and management noted a ~15bp (~A$10m) adverse net yield impact in the period and that the Victorian wagering reform contributed ~A$12.2m to EBITDA.Tabcorp Holdings Limited Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
65
Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
75
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.16B | 2.61B | 2.34B | 2.10B | 2.01B | 2.15B |
| Gross Profit | 418.60M | 2.61B | 2.34B | 342.60M | 236.50M | 297.80M |
| EBITDA | 378.60M | 368.80M | -1.35B | 362.80M | 276.00M | 344.10M |
| Net Income | 33.00M | 36.60M | -1.36B | 66.50M | 6.78B | 269.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.14B | 3.14B | 3.39B | 4.05B | 4.05B | 11.87B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 218.30M | 236.50M | 313.70M | 290.70M | 199.40M | 553.30M |
| Total Debt | 949.00M | 862.60M | 1.14B | 572.40M | 317.00M | 2.78B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.87B | 1.89B | 2.14B | 1.39B | 1.34B | 5.17B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.27B | 1.25B | 1.25B | 2.66B | 2.71B | 6.70B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 207.30M | 288.70M | 84.80M | -77.60M | 534.50M | 537.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 329.80M | 406.50M | 245.20M | 119.30M | 737.00M | 719.50M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -121.70M | -117.00M | -739.70M | -130.00M | -455.70M | -37.60M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -250.10M | -366.70M | 517.50M | 102.00M | -506.30M | -607.20M |
Tabcorp Holdings Limited Technical Analysis
Negative
1.00
Price Trends
0.87
Negative
0.91
Negative
0.94
Negative
Market Momentum
<0.01
Negative
49.56
Neutral
39.65
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:TAH, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.81, above the 50-day MA of 0.87, and above the 200-day MA of 0.94, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.56 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 39.65 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:TAH.
Tabcorp Holdings Limited Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | AU$34.17B | 24.56 | 23.15% | 1.60% | -1.22% | 10.79% | |
69 Neutral | AU$1.88B | 57.43 | 2.62% | 2.01% | 5.46% | ― | |
62 Neutral | AU$12.44B | 34.25 | 109.80% | 3.16% | -2.78% | -2.45% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
45 Neutral | AU$178.00M | -4.22 | -22.97% | ― | 51.36% | 76.07% | |
43 Neutral | AU$340.63M | -14.43 | 653.24% | ― | 5.56% | 8.45% | |
41 Neutral | AU$636.98M | -1.07 | -57.00% | ― | -26.19% | 89.24% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
AU:TAH
Tabcorp Holdings Limited
0.83
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Tabcorp Holdings Limited Corporate Events
Mitsubishi UFJ Exits as Substantial Shareholder in Tabcorp
Jun 19, 2026
Tabcorp Holdings Limited has disclosed that Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. has ceased to be a substantial shareholder in the company as of 16 June 2026. The change occurs against a backdrop of strict regulatory and constitutional limits on i...
Mitsubishi UFJ exits substantial holder status in Tabcorp
Jun 19, 2026
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. has lodged a regulatory notice indicating it has ceased to be a substantial holder in Tabcorp Holdings Limited as at mid-June 2026. The filing details a series of trades in Tabcorp fully paid ordinary shares ex...
Macquarie Exits Substantial Shareholder Position in Tabcorp
Jun 17, 2026
Tabcorp Holdings Limited has disclosed that Macquarie Group Limited and its controlled entities ceased to be a substantial shareholder in the company as of 12 June 2026. The change in substantial holding comes against a backdrop of strict sharehol...
Macquarie Exits Substantial Shareholder Position in Tabcorp
Jun 17, 2026
Macquarie Group Limited and its controlled entities have lodged a notice that they have ceased to be a substantial shareholder in Tabcorp Holdings Limited. The change reflects adjustments in Macquarie’s relevant interest and associations in ...
Tabcorp Extends A$980m Loan Facility, Lengthens Debt Maturity Profile
Jun 16, 2026
Tabcorp has extended its existing A$980 million syndicated term loan facility on improved pricing terms, lengthening the maturity of its $550 million Tranche B from July 2027 to June 2029. The company also pushed out the maturity of its $430 milli...
Tabcorp Flags Exit of Mitsubishi UFJ as Substantial Shareholder Amid Tight Ownership Caps
May 29, 2026
Tabcorp Holdings has disclosed that Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group has ceased to be a substantial shareholder in the company as of 26 May 2026, in line with ASX listing rule disclosure requirements. The change in substantial shareholding occurs ag...
Mitsubishi UFJ Exits Substantial Holder Status in Tabcorp
May 29, 2026
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. has lodged a Form 605 notice indicating it has ceased to be a substantial shareholder in Tabcorp Holdings Limited. The change follows a series of trades on 22 May 2026 involving purchases of fully paid ordinary...
AUSTRAC Launches Enforcement Probe into Tabcorp’s AML/CTF Compliance
May 7, 2026
Tabcorp Holdings has disclosed that AUSTRAC, Australia’s financial intelligence and regulatory agency, has launched an enforcement investigation into the company’s anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing compliance. The r...
Vanguard Lifts Stake in Tabcorp to Just Over 6%
May 6, 2026
Tabcorp has disclosed that global investment manager Vanguard Group has increased its relevant interest in the company to 138,212,274 ordinary shares, representing 6.029% of Tabcorp’s voting power. While this stake remains below the 10% voti...
Aware Super Ceases to Be Substantial Shareholder in Tabcorp
Apr 22, 2026
Tabcorp Holdings has disclosed that institutional investor Aware Super Pty Ltd, acting as trustee for Aware Super, has ceased to be a substantial shareholder in the company as of 17 April 2026. The change in ownership comes against a backdrop of s...
Aware Super Ceases to Be Substantial Shareholder in Tabcorp
Apr 22, 2026
Aware Super Pty Ltd, as trustee of Aware Super, has lodged a notice stating it ceased to be a substantial shareholder in Tabcorp Holdings Limited as of 17 April 2026. The filing, made under Australia’s Corporations Act, indicates that Aware ...
Yarra Capital Exits Substantial Shareholder Position in Tabcorp
Apr 21, 2026
Yarra Capital Management and related entities have notified Tabcorp Holdings that they have ceased to be substantial shareholders in the company as of 17 April 2026. Over the period from 15 January to 17 April, the group disclosed total purchases ...
Australian Retirement Trust Exits Substantial Shareholding in Tabcorp
Apr 15, 2026
Tabcorp has disclosed that Australian Retirement Trust Pty Ltd, as trustee for Australian Retirement Trust, has ceased to be a substantial shareholder in the company as of 13 April 2026. The change in ownership occurs against a backdrop of strict ...
Australian Retirement Trust Ceases to Be Substantial Holder in Tabcorp
Apr 15, 2026
Australian Retirement Trust Pty Ltd, as trustee for the Australian Retirement Trust, has notified Tabcorp Holdings Limited that it has ceased to be a substantial shareholder in the company as of 13 April 2026. The change, lodged under Australia...
Tabcorp Reports Cessation of 4.6 Million Options on Issue
Apr 2, 2026
Tabcorp Holdings Limited has notified the ASX of the cessation of a total of 4,588,000 options on issue, comprising 1,860,000 options expiring in August 2029 with an exercise price of $1.0619 and 2,728,000 options expiring in August 2028 with an e...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.