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Scentre Group (AU:SCG)
ASX:SCG

Scentre Group (SCG) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:SCG

Scentre Group

(Sydney:SCG)

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Outperform 70 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
AU$4.50
▲(17.80% Upside)
Action:UpgradedDate:10/23/25
Scentre Group's overall stock score of 70 reflects strong financial performance with solid revenue growth and improved profitability. The technical analysis indicates a bullish trend, supported by positive momentum indicators. The valuation is reasonable with an attractive dividend yield, making it appealing for income investors. The absence of earnings call and corporate events data did not impact the score.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Consistent revenue growth indicates the company's ability to enhance its market position and attract tenants, supporting long-term financial stability.
Profitability
Significant improvement in net profit margin reflects enhanced operational efficiency and effective cost management, strengthening financial health.
Balance Sheet Stability
A balanced capital structure with a strong equity ratio ensures financial resilience and the ability to manage debt effectively over time.
Negative Factors
Leverage
Moderate leverage could limit financial flexibility and increase risk, especially in economic downturns, impacting long-term growth potential.
Cash Flow Growth
Limited cash flow growth may hinder the company's ability to fund new projects or expansions, potentially affecting future revenue streams.
EBIT Absence
Lack of EBIT data can obscure true operational performance, making it difficult to assess profitability and efficiency accurately.

Scentre Group (SCG) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Scentre Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionScentre Group (ASX Code: SCG) is the owner and operator of Westfield in Australia and New Zealand with interests in 42 Westfield Living Centres, encompassing approximately 12,000 outlets.
How the Company Makes MoneyScentre Group generates revenue primarily through leasing retail space to a variety of tenants, including major national and international brands. The company's revenue model is largely driven by rental income from these leases, which may include fixed rents and percentage rents based on tenants' sales performance. Additionally, Scentre Group earns income through property management fees, development fees, and ancillary services offered to tenants. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships with retailers and brands, enhancing foot traffic and customer engagement in its centers. Other factors contributing to its earnings include its focus on property redevelopment and expansion, aimed at increasing the value and attractiveness of its retail assets.

Scentre Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 23, 2026
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 24, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a predominantly positive operational and financial picture: recurring earnings (FFO) grew 4.9% with record visitation, membership growth, near‑100% occupancy, strong business partner sales and substantial liquidity. The group also executed proactive capital management actions that improved margins and funding profiles. Offsetting items include weak project income driven by construction cost overruns, one‑off ECC dynamics, temporary lost rent from redevelopments, and some execution/market timing risks around bond make‑wholes and development delivery. On balance, the strong operational performance, high occupancy, healthy pipeline and improved funding metrics outweigh the noted challenges.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Funds From Operations (FFO) Growth
FFO increased 4.9% to $1.18 billion for FY2025; FFO per security was $0.2282 (ahead of guidance). Management targets at least 4% FFO growth for 2026 to >$0.2373 per security.
Record Visitation and Membership Growth
Customer visits reached 540 million in 2025 (up 14 million vs 2024; highest since 2019). Early 2026 visitation through late Feb was 79 million (+3.1% vs same period 2025). Westfield membership grew 11% to 5 million members.
Business Partner Sales and Specialty Leasing Strength
Business partner sales were a record $30 billion in 2025 (+$1 billion or 3.6% YoY; H2 growth 4.5%). Occupancy rose to 99.8% (highest since 2013). Completed 3,090 leasing deals, specialty rents up 4.5%, new lease spreads +3.2% for the year (H2 +3.5%).
Net Operating Income and Like‑for‑Like Growth
Net operating income (NOI) was $2.1 billion, up 3.7% YoY; like‑for‑like NOI growth was 4.8% demonstrating underlying operational momentum.
Capital Management and Funding Improvements
Refinanced ~$2.4 billion of senior/subordinated notes; redeemed non‑call 2026 subordinated notes ($1.0B) and issued $650M subordinated non‑call 2031 (margin 2%) plus $1.0B 10‑year senior notes (margin 1.38%) and EUR500M 8‑year senior notes (margin 1.295%). Weighted average interest rate for the year was 5.6% (average base 3.1%, average margin 2.5% versus 2.8% in 2024). Available liquidity was $5.2 billion at 31 Dec 2025.
Hedging and Interest Rate Risk Management
Executed $3.2 billion of interest rate swaps, increasing hedge coverage to 99% as at Jan 2026 with an average base rate of 2.98% (82% hedged at Dec 2026 at avg 3.01%), supporting rate certainty and enabling a forecasted weighted average cost of debt reduction to ~5.4% in FY2026 (from 5.6%).
Portfolio Enhancements and Redevelopments
Completed multiple redevelopments: Westfield Southland ($72M; visitation +6.5%), Westfield Burwood ($48M; visitation +9.3%), Level 1 at Westfield Bondi ($28M; visitation +8.5%). Completed Westfield Sydney expansion (luxury retailers). Announced $240M redevelopment at Westfield Bondi (Level 6) to expand lifestyle, entertainment and dining offering.
Strategic Landholdings and Development Pipeline
Portfolio sits on >670 hectares near transport hubs; launched planning proposals at 6 Westfield destinations with potential to deliver >16,000 dwellings. Strategy focused on broadening economic activity (residential, student accommodation, health, education) and redeploying underutilized land.
Record Statutory Result and Property Valuations
Statutory profit of $1.78 billion including an unrealised property revaluation uplift of $456 million. Portfolio valuations increased ~2.5% over the 12‑month period; weighted average cap rate 5.43% at Dec 2025.
Negative Updates
Project Income Weakness and Cost Overruns
Project income for 2025 was only ~$2 million, negatively impacted by higher‑than‑expected construction costs on the commercial/residential project at 121 Castlereagh Street and a prior $15 million write‑down on the Market Street development.
One‑off ECC and Collection Volatility
A release of expected credit charge (ECC) benefited 2025 (management noted ~AUD 17.7 million in 2025) and the group does not expect a similar release in 2026, indicating one‑off improvement in debtor collections that may not repeat.
Redevelopment Disruption and Lost Rent
Redevelopment and rightsizing activity (e.g., David Jones downsizings and other repurposings) creates temporary lost rent and disruption — management flagged incremental lost rent in 2026 of roughly $10–$15 million and some dilution from joint ventures (Westfield Sydney/Chermside).
Higher Tax and Select Cost Pressures
Tax expense increased from $39 million to $44 million, driven by higher management and ancillary income and New Zealand tax impacts (lower interest rates). Overheads and net interest expense rose modestly (overheads +2.5%; net interest expense +0.6%).
Project & Development Execution Risk
Management disclosed execution and cost risk on developments (e.g., Castle/Market Street items); these contributed to low project income and required careful management of construction cost inflation.
Potential Premium to Redeem Existing Bonds
Group signalled intention to make‑whole redeem USD 750M 2030 senior bonds (credit margin 4.2%), but noted market conditions could make buybacks relatively expensive today (possible make‑whole premium and cross‑currency unwind costs).
Hedging Profile Changes Through 2026
Hedge coverage reduces from 99% (Jan 2026) to 82% at Dec 2026, leaving a portion of debt exposed to floating rates and market movements through the year despite high overall coverage.
Company Guidance
Management guided FY2026 FFO to grow by at least 4% to more than $0.2373 per security (up from $0.2282 in FY2025; FFO was $1.18bn in 2025) and distributions to rise 4% to $0.1843 per security, supported by an expected circa 4% like‑for‑like NOI lift; capital plans include ~ $170m of operating/leasing capex and $250–300m of redevelopment spend, liquidity stood at $5.2bn (31‑Dec‑25), weighted average cost of debt is targeted to fall to ~5.4% (from 5.6% in 2025 with an average base rate ~3.1% and margin ~2.5%), hedge coverage remains high (99% at Jan‑26, avg base 2.98%; 82% at Dec‑26, avg 3.01%), the ~$17.7m ECC in 2025 is not expected to repeat, and management flagged ongoing capital management (including use of the $2.2bn JV proceeds and intention to redeem ~USD750m of 2030 senior bonds) while pointing to strong operating metrics that underwrite guidance (99.8% occupancy, $30bn partner sales in 2025, Jan‑26 partner sales +5.4%, and early‑2026 visitation +3.1%).

Scentre Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Scentre Group's financial performance showcases solid revenue growth and improved profitability, particularly in net income. The balance sheet is stable with moderate leverage, while cash flow generation remains steady. However, the absence of EBIT in the latest period and limited cash flow growth are areas to monitor. Overall, the company is financially sound but should focus on enhancing operational efficiency and cash flow growth.
Income Statement
70
Positive
Scentre Group has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a 5% increase from the previous year. The gross profit margin remains robust at approximately 69.8%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the absence of EBIT for the latest period is concerning, impacting profitability metrics. Despite this, net income has substantially increased, improving the net profit margin to 39.8% compared to the prior year's 7%.
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
The company's debt-to-equity ratio is around 0.92, which is reasonable but suggests moderate leverage. Return on Equity (ROE) is strong at 5.77%, reflecting effective profit generation from equity. The equity ratio stands at 50%, indicating a balanced capital structure. Overall, the balance sheet shows stability but with room for debt reduction.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Free cash flow growth is marginal at 5.66%, suggesting limited improvement. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is unavailable, which poses a challenge in assessing cash efficiency. However, the company maintains healthy free cash flow relative to net income, indicating good cash generation capabilities. Overall, cash flows are stable but lack significant growth momentum.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue2.67B2.64B2.51B2.46B2.28B2.16B
Gross Profit1.88B1.84B1.76B1.64B1.59B1.58B
EBITDA874.80M1.93B1.62B1.75B1.52B1.72B
Net Income1.43B1.05B174.90M300.60M887.90M-3.73B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets36.28B36.35B35.67B37.01B36.64B38.06B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments318.40M380.60M296.40M679.00M978.70M2.60B
Total Debt16.36B16.77B15.71B15.87B15.47B16.42B
Total Liabilities17.69B18.17B17.65B18.29B17.46B19.07B
Stockholders Equity18.41B18.19B17.84B18.53B19.00B18.83B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow849.90M659.40M624.10M1.09B844.40M645.50M
Operating Cash Flow1.02B1.07B1.07B1.12B868.20M666.90M
Investing Cash Flow-402.20M-460.00M-438.90M-481.30M-342.00M-356.60M
Financing Cash Flow-572.70M-526.20M-1.01B-941.30M55.30M-201.90M

Scentre Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price3.82
Price Trends
50DMA
3.97
Negative
100DMA
3.99
Negative
200DMA
3.84
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.05
Negative
RSI
44.87
Neutral
STOCH
78.07
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:SCG, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 3.82 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.83, below the 50-day MA of 3.97, and below the 200-day MA of 3.84, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 44.87 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 78.07 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AU:SCG.

Scentre Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
75
Outperform
AU$12.41B14.027.99%4.29%4.75%170.39%
71
Outperform
$11.27B8.509.03%4.72%0.29%83.44%
70
Outperform
$19.93B11.187.71%4.13%5.44%231.88%
69
Neutral
AU$9.69B9.883.56%4.41%12.66%
66
Neutral
AU$8.09B20.960.71%4.39%-18.48%
65
Neutral
$2.17B12.193.79%4.94%3.15%1.96%
* Real Estate Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:SCG
Scentre Group
3.82
0.59
18.38%
AU:VCX
Vicinity Centres
2.45
0.35
16.89%
AU:GPT
GPT Group
5.06
0.63
14.25%
AU:MGR
Mirvac Group
2.05
0.04
1.99%
AU:SGP
Stockland
5.11
0.20
4.01%

Scentre Group Corporate Events

Scentre Group Sells 19.9% Stake in Westfield Sydney to Australian Retirement Trust
Dec 23, 2025

Scentre Group has brought Australian Retirement Trust in as a new joint venture partner at Westfield Sydney, with the superannuation fund acquiring a 19.9% stake for $864 million, in line with the centre’s June 2025 book value at a 4.69% capitalisation rate. Scentre will retain an 80.1% interest and continue to manage property, leasing and development, reinforcing its control over one of Australia’s flagship CBD retail assets, which attracts more than 33 million customers annually and generated $1.1 billion in sales in 2024. The deal is part of Scentre’s broader capital recycling strategy, following the recent $1.3 billion joint venture at Westfield Chermside, and lifts announced third-party capital inflows in 2025 to about $2.2 billion. After investing $3.3 billion in the Westfield Sydney precinct over time, and selling its three office towers in 2019, Scentre has now realised roughly $2.4 billion from the asset, leaving a net investment of $0.9 billion against a remaining 80.1% stake valued at $3.5 billion, effectively quadrupling its capital since acquisition and underscoring its ability to unlock value for securityholders while maintaining operational control.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:SCG) stock is a Buy with a A$4.60 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Scentre Group stock, see the AU:SCG Stock Forecast page.

Scentre Group CEO Increases Direct Holding After Vesting of Performance Rights
Dec 19, 2025

Scentre Group has disclosed a change in the interests of its director, Elliott Rusanow, following the vesting of performance rights under the company’s Performance Rights Plan on 15 December 2025. Rusanow received 994,583 Scentre Group ordinary securities for nil consideration as 957,608 performance rights vested, increasing his directly held ordinary securities to 994,583 and leaving him with 3,164,812 remaining performance rights, while his indirect holding via Tellammy Pty Ltd remains at 2,016,843 ordinary securities. The transaction, a standard vesting event under the company’s long-term incentive framework, underscores the alignment of executive remuneration with shareholder interests, without involving any on-market trading or cash consideration.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:SCG) stock is a Buy with a A$4.55 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Scentre Group stock, see the AU:SCG Stock Forecast page.

Scentre Group Issues 5.8 Million New Stapled Securities on Option Conversion
Dec 19, 2025

Scentre Group has notified the market of the issue of 5,813,470 fully paid stapled securities, following the exercise or conversion of previously unquoted options or other unquoted convertible securities. The new stapled securities, issued on 15 December 2025, increase the company’s equity base and marginally dilute existing holders, reflecting the ongoing operation of its incentive or financing structures and underscoring continued engagement by participants in its equity-linked schemes.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:SCG) stock is a Buy with a A$4.55 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Scentre Group stock, see the AU:SCG Stock Forecast page.

Scentre Group Forms Joint Venture for Westfield Chermside Stake
Dec 11, 2025

Scentre Group has announced a new joint venture with a Dexus managed fund, selling a 25% interest in Westfield Chermside, Brisbane for $683 million. This transaction aligns with Scentre Group’s long-term capital management strategy, introducing approximately $1.3 billion of new capital to support its strategic objectives and sustainable growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:SCG) stock is a Buy with a A$4.60 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Scentre Group stock, see the AU:SCG Stock Forecast page.

Scentre Group Explores Joint Venture Opportunities for Westfield Sydney
Dec 11, 2025

Scentre Group has acknowledged a media report regarding potential transactions involving an interest in Westfield Sydney. As part of its capital management strategy, the company is in discussions with third parties about joint venture opportunities, which may or may not lead to new transactions. Any developments will be disclosed in line with continuous disclosure obligations.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:SCG) stock is a Buy with a A$4.60 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Scentre Group stock, see the AU:SCG Stock Forecast page.

Scentre Group Issues Performance Rights to Boost Employee Incentives
Dec 9, 2025

Scentre Group has announced the issuance of 107,548 performance rights as part of an employee incentive scheme. These securities are unquoted and are not intended to be listed on the ASX, reflecting the company’s strategy to incentivize and retain talent, which could strengthen its operational capabilities and market position.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:SCG) stock is a Buy with a A$4.60 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Scentre Group stock, see the AU:SCG Stock Forecast page.

Scentre Group Sees Growth in Visitation and Sales Amid Strategic Investments
Nov 11, 2025

Scentre Group reported a 3.1% increase in customer visitation to its Westfield destinations, with total business partner sales rising to $29.5 billion, reflecting strong demand and high occupancy rates. The company continues to invest in redevelopments and new experiences, enhancing its market position and driving growth, as evidenced by recent openings and capital management strategies.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:SCG) stock is a Buy with a A$4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Scentre Group stock, see the AU:SCG Stock Forecast page.

Scentre Group Explores Strategic Opportunities at Westfield Chermside
Oct 22, 2025

Scentre Group has acknowledged a media report about a potential sale of a further interest in Westfield Chermside to a Dexus fund, as part of its ongoing capital management strategy. The company is exploring strategic opportunities, including forming joint ventures, and will keep the market informed of any new transactions, highlighting its commitment to transparency and strategic growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:SCG) stock is a Hold with a A$4.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Scentre Group stock, see the AU:SCG Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 23, 2025