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Scentre Group
(Sydney:SCG)
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Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
AU$4.50
▲(15.68% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/04/26
Overall score is driven primarily by improving financial performance (stronger 2024–2025 profitability, steady operating cash flow, positive free cash flow, and modestly improved leverage) and constructive earnings outlook (guided FFO/distribution growth supported by very high occupancy and like-for-like NOI gains). Valuation is supportive (11.53 P/E and ~4.42% yield), while technicals indicate a steady uptrend without strong momentum extremes. Key risks holding the score back are historical earnings volatility and execution/cost risks in developments plus temporary redevelopment rent disruption.
Positive Factors
High occupancy and leasing momentum
Near‑100% occupancy and positive lease re‑letting metrics indicate a resilient rental base and limited vacancy risk. Sustained occupancy and rising specialty rents support stable, recurring cash flows and bargaining power with tenants, underpinning long‑term FFO and distribution sustainability.
Negative Factors
Development execution and project income volatility
Cost overruns and low project income highlight execution risk in development activity. Persistent construction inflation or delivery delays can compress returns, tie up capital and reduce expected value from redevelopments, creating multi‑period earnings and cashflow volatility for a development‑heavy REIT.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High occupancy and leasing momentum
Near‑100% occupancy and positive lease re‑letting metrics indicate a resilient rental base and limited vacancy risk. Sustained occupancy and rising specialty rents support stable, recurring cash flows and bargaining power with tenants, underpinning long‑term FFO and distribution sustainability.
Read all positive factors
Scentre Group (SCG) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$20.61B
Dividend Yield4.65%
Average Volume (3M)10.13M
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.1
Beta (1Y)0.75
Revenue Growth1.82%
EPS Growth68.91%
CountryAU
Employees2,799
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.34
Shares Outstanding5,222,977,000
10 Day Avg. Volume13,135,322
30 Day Avg. Volume10,127,293
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.18
Price to Book (P/B)1.16
Price to Sales (P/S)8.14
P/FCF Ratio21.64
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$4.14Price Target Upside6.34% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)0.24
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$2.11B
Scentre Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Scentre Group, listed on the ASX as SCG, is the owner and manager of all Westfield properties situated across Australia and New Zealand. Its extensive holdings encompass 42 Westfield Living Centres, which collectively contain approximately 12,000 ...
How the Company Makes Money
Scentre Group primarily makes money by monetising its shopping centre portfolio through a combination of rental and property-related income streams. The core revenue model is long-term leasing of retail space to tenants (e.g., retailers and food a...
Scentre Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 23, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 25, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a predominantly positive operational and financial picture: recurring earnings (FFO) grew 4.9% with record visitation, membership growth, near‑100% occupancy, strong business partner sales and substantial liquidity. The group also executed proactive capital management actions that improved margins and funding profiles. Offsetting items include weak project income driven by construction cost overruns, one‑off ECC dynamics, temporary lost rent from redevelopments, and some execution/market timing risks around bond make‑wholes and development delivery. On balance, the strong operational performance, high occupancy, healthy pipeline and improved funding metrics outweigh the noted challenges.Positive Updates
Funds From Operations (FFO) Growth
FFO increased 4.9% to $1.18 billion for FY2025; FFO per security was $0.2282 (ahead of guidance). Management targets at least 4% FFO growth for 2026 to >$0.2373 per security.
Negative Updates
Project Income Weakness and Cost Overruns
Project income for 2025 was only ~$2 million, negatively impacted by higher‑than‑expected construction costs on the commercial/residential project at 121 Castlereagh Street and a prior $15 million write‑down on the Market Street development.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Funds From Operations (FFO) Growth
FFO increased 4.9% to $1.18 billion for FY2025; FFO per security was $0.2282 (ahead of guidance). Management targets at least 4% FFO growth for 2026 to >$0.2373 per security.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided FY2026 FFO to grow by at least 4% to more than $0.2373 per security (up from $0.2282 in FY2025; FFO was $1.18bn in 2025) and distributions to rise 4% to $0.1843 per security, supported by an expected circa 4% like‑for‑like NOI lift; capital plans include ~ $170m of operating/leasing capex and $250–300m of redevelopment spend, liquidity stood at $5.2bn (31‑Dec‑25), weighted average cost of debt is targeted to fall to ~5.4% (from 5.6% in 2025 with an average base rate ~3.1% and margin ~2.5%), hedge coverage remains high (99% at Jan‑26, avg base 2.98%; 82% at Dec‑26, avg 3.01%), the ~$17.7m ECC in 2025 is not expected to repeat, and management flagged ongoing capital management (including use of the $2.2bn JV proceeds and intention to redeem ~USD750m of 2030 senior bonds) while pointing to strong operating metrics that underwrite guidance (99.8% occupancy, $30bn partner sales in 2025, Jan‑26 partner sales +5.4%, and early‑2026 visitation +3.1%).Scentre Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
67
Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.69B | 2.64B | 2.51B | 2.46B | 2.28B |
| Gross Profit | 1.91B | 1.84B | 1.76B | 1.64B | 1.59B |
| EBITDA | 2.66B | 1.93B | 1.62B | 1.75B | 1.52B |
| Net Income | 1.78B | 1.05B | 174.90M | 300.60M | 887.90M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 35.40B | 36.35B | 35.67B | 37.01B | 36.64B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 529.40M | 380.60M | 296.40M | 679.00M | 978.70M |
| Total Debt | 15.15B | 16.77B | 15.71B | 15.87B | 15.47B |
| Total Liabilities | 16.32B | 18.17B | 17.65B | 18.29B | 17.46B |
| Stockholders Equity | 18.89B | 18.19B | 17.84B | 18.53B | 19.00B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.01B | 1.02B | 624.10M | 1.09B | 844.40M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.03B | 1.04B | 1.07B | 1.12B | 868.20M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 951.50M | -427.80M | -438.90M | -481.30M | -342.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.83B | -526.20M | -1.01B | -941.30M | 55.30M |
Scentre Group Technical Analysis
Positive
3.89
Price Trends
3.87
Positive
3.73
Positive
3.84
Positive
Market Momentum
0.03
Positive
54.00
Neutral
71.77
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:SCG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3.89 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.94, above the 50-day MA of 3.87, and above the 200-day MA of 3.84, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.00 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.77 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:SCG.
Scentre Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | AU$20.61B | 11.12 | 9.54% | 4.45% | 1.82% | 68.91% | |
74 Outperform | AU$10.04B | 12.12 | 7.84% | 4.90% | 3.78% | ― | |
73 Outperform | AU$12.53B | 9.17 | 11.52% | 4.66% | 0.27% | 60.68% | |
73 Outperform | AU$2.46B | 6.18 | 13.47% | 6.57% | 31.33% | 82.16% | |
66 Neutral | AU$7.06B | 18.08 | 4.23% | 5.59% | -8.84% | ― | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
64 Neutral | AU$10.54B | 11.78 | 8.50% | 6.12% | 9.71% | 93.78% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
AU:SCG
Scentre Group
3.88
0.20
5.55%
AU:VCX
Vicinity Centres
2.67
0.27
11.20%
AU:GPT
GPT Group
5.19
0.21
4.30%
AU:MGR
Mirvac Group
1.77
-0.39
-17.98%
AU:SGP
Stockland
4.27
-1.11
-20.66%
AU:CQR
Charter Hall Retail REIT
4.17
0.41
10.82%
Scentre Group Corporate Events
Scentre Group Announces Lapse of 116,584 Performance Rights
Jul 14, 2026
Scentre Group has notified the market of the cessation of a tranche of performance rights, confirming that 116,584 securities have lapsed after conditions attached to those rights were not met or became incapable of being satisfied.The lapse of th...
Scentre Group Director Restructures Holding With No Change in Interest
Jun 30, 2026
Scentre Group has disclosed a change in director Michael Wilkins’s indirect holding structure, noting that his 125,000 ordinary securities were transferred from a superannuation account custodian to a family trust custodian. The group stated...
Scentre Group Grants Additional Performance Rights to CEO Elliott Rusanow
Jun 2, 2026
Scentre Group has disclosed a change in director’s interests following the issue of new performance rights to its chief executive, Elliott Rusanow, under the company’s Performance Rights Plan. The grant of 1,008,690 additional performa...
Scentre Group Issues 6.75 Million Unquoted Performance Rights Under Incentive Plan
Jun 2, 2026
Scentre Group has notified the market of the issue of 6,751,198 unquoted performance rights under its employee incentive scheme, effective 1 June 2026. The new equity awards, which will not be quoted on the ASX, underline the group’s ongoing...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.