Scentre Group (AU:SCG)
ASX:SCG
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Scentre Group
(Sydney:SCG)
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Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
AU$4.00
▲(16.62% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/02/26
The score is driven primarily by improving financial performance and a constructive earnings outlook (guided FFO/distribution growth backed by near-full occupancy and solid NOI momentum). Valuation is also supportive with a modest P/E and solid yield. The main constraint is weaker technical momentum, with negative MACD and price below key moving averages.
Positive Factors
High Occupancy & Retail Sales
Near‑full occupancy and record partner sales underpin durable rental cash flows and leasing resilience. Persistently high occupancy reduces vacancy risk, supports renewal spreads and specialty rent growth, and provides a stable base for FFO and distribution growth over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Project Income & Cost Overruns
Low project income and construction cost overruns compress development margins and defer expected returns from redevelopments. Persistent execution cost pressure can reduce overall returns on capital and slow the conversion of landbank optionality into cash flows and FFO contribution.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High Occupancy & Retail Sales
Near‑full occupancy and record partner sales underpin durable rental cash flows and leasing resilience. Persistently high occupancy reduces vacancy risk, supports renewal spreads and specialty rent growth, and provides a stable base for FFO and distribution growth over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Scentre Group (SCG) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$17.79B
Dividend Yield4.13%
Average Volume (3M)10.13M
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.3
Beta (1Y)0.82
Revenue Growth5.44%
EPS Growth231.88%
CountryAU
Employees2,860
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.12
Shares Outstanding5,222,977,000
10 Day Avg. Volume13,135,322
30 Day Avg. Volume10,127,293
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.18
Price to Book (P/B)1.16
Price to Sales (P/S)8.14
P/FCF Ratio21.14
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$4.09Price Target Upside19.16% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)0.23
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$2.13B
Scentre Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Scentre Group (ASX Code: SCG) is the owner and operator of Westfield in Australia and New Zealand with interests in 42 Westfield Living Centres, encompassing approximately 12,000 outlets....
How the Company Makes Money
SCG primarily makes money from the operation of its shopping centre portfolio. The main revenue stream is rental income paid by retailers and other occupants for leasing space within Westfield centres; this includes base rent under lease contracts...
Scentre Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 23, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 24, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a predominantly positive operational and financial picture: recurring earnings (FFO) grew 4.9% with record visitation, membership growth, near‑100% occupancy, strong business partner sales and substantial liquidity. The group also executed proactive capital management actions that improved margins and funding profiles. Offsetting items include weak project income driven by construction cost overruns, one‑off ECC dynamics, temporary lost rent from redevelopments, and some execution/market timing risks around bond make‑wholes and development delivery. On balance, the strong operational performance, high occupancy, healthy pipeline and improved funding metrics outweigh the noted challenges.Positive Updates
Funds From Operations (FFO) Growth
FFO increased 4.9% to $1.18 billion for FY2025; FFO per security was $0.2282 (ahead of guidance). Management targets at least 4% FFO growth for 2026 to >$0.2373 per security.
Negative Updates
Project Income Weakness and Cost Overruns
Project income for 2025 was only ~$2 million, negatively impacted by higher‑than‑expected construction costs on the commercial/residential project at 121 Castlereagh Street and a prior $15 million write‑down on the Market Street development.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Funds From Operations (FFO) Growth
FFO increased 4.9% to $1.18 billion for FY2025; FFO per security was $0.2282 (ahead of guidance). Management targets at least 4% FFO growth for 2026 to >$0.2373 per security.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided FY2026 FFO to grow by at least 4% to more than $0.2373 per security (up from $0.2282 in FY2025; FFO was $1.18bn in 2025) and distributions to rise 4% to $0.1843 per security, supported by an expected circa 4% like‑for‑like NOI lift; capital plans include ~ $170m of operating/leasing capex and $250–300m of redevelopment spend, liquidity stood at $5.2bn (31‑Dec‑25), weighted average cost of debt is targeted to fall to ~5.4% (from 5.6% in 2025 with an average base rate ~3.1% and margin ~2.5%), hedge coverage remains high (99% at Jan‑26, avg base 2.98%; 82% at Dec‑26, avg 3.01%), the ~$17.7m ECC in 2025 is not expected to repeat, and management flagged ongoing capital management (including use of the $2.2bn JV proceeds and intention to redeem ~USD750m of 2030 senior bonds) while pointing to strong operating metrics that underwrite guidance (99.8% occupancy, $30bn partner sales in 2025, Jan‑26 partner sales +5.4%, and early‑2026 visitation +3.1%).Scentre Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
67
Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.69B | 2.64B | 2.51B | 2.46B | 2.28B |
| Gross Profit | 1.91B | 1.84B | 1.76B | 1.64B | 1.59B |
| EBITDA | 2.66B | 1.93B | 1.62B | 1.75B | 1.52B |
| Net Income | 1.78B | 1.05B | 174.90M | 300.60M | 887.90M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 35.40B | 36.35B | 35.67B | 37.01B | 36.64B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 529.40M | 380.60M | 296.40M | 679.00M | 978.70M |
| Total Debt | 15.15B | 16.77B | 15.71B | 15.87B | 15.47B |
| Total Liabilities | 16.32B | 18.17B | 17.65B | 18.29B | 17.46B |
| Stockholders Equity | 18.89B | 18.19B | 17.84B | 18.53B | 19.00B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.03B | 659.40M | 624.10M | 1.09B | 844.40M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.05B | 1.07B | 1.07B | 1.12B | 868.20M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 926.90M | -460.00M | -438.90M | -481.30M | -342.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.83B | -526.20M | -1.01B | -941.30M | 55.30M |
Scentre Group Technical Analysis
Negative
3.43
Price Trends
3.80
Negative
3.92
Negative
3.85
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.10
Positive
31.73
Neutral
10.76
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:SCG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.43 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.61, below the 50-day MA of 3.80, and below the 200-day MA of 3.85, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.10 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 31.73 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.76 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:SCG.
Scentre Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | AU$10.34B | 11.82 | 8.50% | 4.29% | 4.75% | 170.39% | |
74 Outperform | AU$17.79B | 12.29 | 9.54% | 4.13% | 5.44% | 231.88% | |
71 Outperform | AU$11.00B | 3.64 | 11.52% | 4.72% | 0.29% | 83.44% | |
69 Neutral | AU$8.70B | 10.58 | 7.84% | 4.41% | 12.66% | ― | |
66 Neutral | AU$7.04B | 6.34 | 4.23% | 4.39% | -18.48% | ― | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
AU:SCG
Scentre Group
3.43
0.12
3.53%
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2.37
0.24
11.06%
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4.54
0.25
5.93%
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Mirvac Group
1.79
-0.28
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AU:SGP
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4.26
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Scentre Group Corporate Events
Scentre Group Releases Notice for 2026 Annual General Meeting
Mar 20, 2026
Scentre Group has released the formal notice, explanatory notes and proxy form for its 2026 Annual General Meeting, scheduled to be held on 22 April 2026 in Sydney at 10:00am AEST. The company has also made its 2025 Annual Report and all AGM-relat...
Scentre Group CEO Restructures Holding of Securities via Family Trust
Mar 19, 2026
Scentre Group has disclosed a change in the way its Chief Executive Officer, Elliott Rusanow, holds a portion of his securities, following a formal notice to the ASX. The filing outlines that 994,583 Scentre Group ordinary securities previously he...
Scentre Group Files 2025 Financial Reports for Core Trust Structures
Mar 19, 2026
Scentre Group has lodged the 2025 annual financial reports for Scentre Group Trust 1, Trust 2 and Trust 3, following the release of its 2025 full-year results and Annual Report in February 2026. The trusts’ financial statements are reported ...
Scentre Director Increases Stake via Distribution Reinvestment Plan
Mar 2, 2026
Scentre Group has disclosed a change in director Catherine Michelle Brenner’s indirect interest in the company’s ordinary stapled securities. The change arises from the issuance of 2,453 securities to Brenner Super Pty Limited under th...
Scentre Director Julie Ann Coates Builds New Stake in Stapled Securities
Feb 27, 2026
Scentre Group has disclosed a change in director Julie Ann Coates’s interests, with an associated entity, Good Coates Pty Limited, acquiring 56,050 ordinary stapled securities on market over two days in late February 2026. The purchase, made...
Scentre Group Seeks ASX Quotation for 6.6 Million New Stapled Securities
Feb 27, 2026
Scentre Group has applied for quotation on the ASX of 6,559,679 fully paid ordinary stapled securities, to be issued on 27 February 2026. The new securities are being issued under a dividend or distribution plan, modestly expanding the group’...
Scentre Group details tax components of December 2025 distribution for non-resident investors
Feb 24, 2026
Scentre Group has released taxation notices detailing the components of the distribution for the six months to 31 December 2025 from Scentre Group Trust 1 and Scentre Group Trust 2, aimed at non-resident investors under Australia’s Tax Admin...
Scentre Group Showcases 2025 Westfield Portfolio and Community-Focused Strategy
Feb 23, 2026
Scentre Group has released its 2025 Property Compendium, detailing its portfolio of 42 Westfield destinations across Australia and New Zealand and highlighting individual centre profiles such as Westfield Miranda, Parramatta and Sydney. The docume...
Scentre Group lifts FFO 4.9% as Westfield redevelopments and joint ventures drive growth
Feb 23, 2026
Scentre Group reported a 4.9% rise in Funds From Operations to $1.188 billion for 2025, with distributions up 3.4% to $923 million and statutory profit at $1.779 billion. The company delivered its fifth consecutive year of earnings and distributio...
Scentre Group Lifts 2025 Profit and Confirms Higher Distributions
Feb 23, 2026
Scentre Group reported higher full-year metrics for 2025, with revenue rising to $2,685.0 million, net operating income increasing to $2,104.1 million, and funds from operations attributable to members growing to $1,187.5 million. Profit after tax...
Scentre Group Confirms Final Distribution Details for December 2025 Half-Year
Feb 23, 2026
Scentre Group has updated investors on the actual distribution for the six-month period ended 31 December 2025, confirming details for its fully paid ordinary stapled securities. The announcement also specifies the AUD/NZD exchange rate, the equiv...
Scentre Group Sets February Payout Ahead of Full‑Year 2025 Results
Feb 8, 2026
Scentre Group has declared a six‑month distribution of AUD 0.08905 per fully paid stapled security for the period ended 31 December 2025, with an ex‑date of 12 February, a record date of 13 February and payment scheduled for 27 Februar...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.