Vicinity Centres (AU:VCX)
ASX:VCX
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Vicinity Centres
(Sydney:VCX)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
AU$3.00
▲(25.00% Upside)
Action:UpgradedDate:02/18/26
Overall score reflects solid earnings-call momentum (upgraded guidance, strong occupancy/leasing and liquidity) and supportive valuation (modest P/E and attractive yield), partially offset by mixed financial performance driven by declining revenue and weakening free cash flow trends.
Positive Factors
High occupancy and leasing momentum
Near-perfect occupancy and record leasing spreads indicate durable rental cashflow resilience and strong landlord negotiating power. High tenant retention and multi-year average tenures reduce vacancy risk and support steady income, underpinning distributable earnings over the next 2–6 months and beyond.
Negative Factors
Negative free cash flow growth trend
A declining free cash flow trend constrains capacity to self‑fund development, distributions, and contingencies without leaning on disposals or debt. Over multiple quarters this can pressure financial flexibility, raise refinancing needs, and limit optionality for opportunistic investments.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High occupancy and leasing momentum
Near-perfect occupancy and record leasing spreads indicate durable rental cashflow resilience and strong landlord negotiating power. High tenant retention and multi-year average tenures reduce vacancy risk and support steady income, underpinning distributable earnings over the next 2–6 months and beyond.
Read all positive factors
Vicinity Centres (VCX) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$11.14B
Dividend Yield4.72%
Average Volume (3M)7.67M
Price to Earnings (P/E)3.6
Beta (1Y)0.58
Revenue Growth0.29%
EPS Growth83.44%
CountryAU
Employees1,257
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.17
Shares Outstanding4,640,336,400
10 Day Avg. Volume6,620,781
30 Day Avg. Volume7,666,209
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.13
Price to Book (P/B)1.01
Price to Sales (P/S)8.51
P/FCF Ratio17.46
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$2.54Price Target Upside5.99% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)0.15
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$974.79M
Vicinity Centres Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Vicinity Centres (Vicinity or the Group) is one of Australia's leading retail property groups. With a fully integrated asset management platform, and $24 billion in retail assets under management across 63 shopping centres, it is the second larges...
How the Company Makes Money
Vicinity Centres generates revenue primarily through rental income derived from its retail properties, which includes long-term leases with major retailers and specialty stores. This rental income is enhanced by periodic rent reviews and incentive...
Vicinity Centres Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 18, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 25, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a predominately positive operational and financial picture: record statutory profit, valuation gains, very high occupancy, record leasing spreads, strong retail sales and productivity, successful divestments at premiums, and an upgraded FY'26 NPI/guidance trajectory. Challenges identified — taxes/levies, elevated construction costs, increased security provisions, modest near-term sales seasonality and some one-off items — are meaningful but presented as manageable and largely accounted for in guidance. The balance sheet is strong, liquidity is ample and management has clear strategies to derisk developments and recycle capital, supporting confidence in execution and future returns.Positive Updates
Record Statutory Profit and Valuation Uplift
Net profit after tax of $805.6m for the 6 months (statutory net profit ~$806m), up by more than 60%. Net portfolio valuation growth of $407m (2.6% uplift) in H1 contributed to NTA per security increasing to $2.52, up 4.8% in the half.
Negative Updates
Tax and Levy Headwinds
Burdensome new taxes and levies (including Victorian congestion levies and transfer of fire services levy to property taxes, plus airport land lease-related taxes) negatively impacted like-for-like comparable NPI; management expects these drags to annualize in H2 with a normalization expected in FY'27.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Statutory Profit and Valuation Uplift
Net profit after tax of $805.6m for the 6 months (statutory net profit ~$806m), up by more than 60%. Net portfolio valuation growth of $407m (2.6% uplift) in H1 contributed to NTA per security increasing to $2.52, up 4.8% in the half.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Vicinity upgraded FY‑26 guidance with comparable NPI growth now expected at 3.5%, FFO per security guided around the top end of $0.150–$0.152 and AFFO per security around the top end of $0.128–$0.130, and a full‑year distribution payout ratio targeted at 95–100% of adjusted FFO; the group reiterated a FY‑26 weighted average cost of debt of 5%, an expected hedge ratio on drawn debt of ~89% for FY‑26 (85% for FY‑27), and maintained investment‑grade ratings (S&P A stable, Moody’s A2 stable); balance‑sheet metrics include gearing at 26.3% (pro‑forma 25.8% after the Uptown acquisition and $327m of sales), $1.0bn undrawn facilities and modest FY‑27 maturities (~$300m), while development guidance highlights Chatswood investment of $625m (stabilized yield >6% and unlevered IRR ~10%), Uptown capex of $300–$350m (commencing CY‑2027) with target stabilized yield on cost >6% and unlevered IRR >10%, and loss‑of‑rent guidance for FY‑27 of ~$15m.Vicinity Centres Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
65
Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.34B | 1.32B | 1.31B | 1.23B | 1.18B | 1.11B |
| Gross Profit | 481.20M | 945.00M | 916.50M | 880.80M | 851.50M | 758.20M |
| EBITDA | 1.36B | 1.21B | 736.00M | 446.80M | 785.70M | 506.40M |
| Net Income | 1.32B | 1.00B | 547.10M | 271.50M | 1.22B | -256.80M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 16.93B | 16.34B | 15.73B | 15.58B | 15.55B | 14.34B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 55.70M | 80.70M | 49.60M | 192.90M | 55.60M | 36.20M |
| Total Debt | 5.26B | 4.85B | 4.62B | 4.46B | 4.14B | 3.63B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.19B | 5.21B | 5.09B | 4.95B | 4.67B | 4.33B |
| Stockholders Equity | 11.75B | 11.13B | 10.64B | 10.64B | 10.89B | 10.01B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 188.50M | 644.60M | 353.10M | 367.50M | 334.90M | 598.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 661.30M | 651.00M | 690.10M | 702.20M | 589.50M | 599.90M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -21.60M | -176.80M | -435.70M | -203.20M | -512.30M | -126.50M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -693.40M | -443.10M | -397.70M | -361.70M | -68.80M | -655.30M |
Vicinity Centres Technical Analysis
Neutral
2.40
Price Trends
2.42
Negative
2.44
Negative
2.44
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.02
Negative
52.89
Neutral
76.08
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:VCX, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 2.4 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.36, below the 50-day MA of 2.42, and below the 200-day MA of 2.44, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.89 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.08 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AU:VCX.
Vicinity Centres Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | AU$10.47B | 11.82 | 8.50% | 4.29% | 4.75% | 170.39% | |
74 Outperform | AU$17.89B | 12.29 | 9.54% | 4.13% | 5.44% | 231.88% | |
71 Outperform | AU$11.14B | 3.64 | 11.52% | 4.72% | 0.29% | 83.44% | |
69 Neutral | AU$8.83B | 10.58 | 7.84% | 4.41% | 12.66% | ― | |
66 Neutral | AU$7.14B | 6.34 | 4.23% | 4.39% | -18.48% | ― | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
56 Neutral | AU$6.50B | 5.34 | 4.78% | 5.32% | 4.52% | ― |
* Real Estate Sector Average
AU:VCX
Vicinity Centres
2.40
0.29
13.96%
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6.04
-0.81
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Vicinity Centres Corporate Events
Vicinity Centres Reports Lapse of Performance and Restricted Rights
Jan 4, 2026
Vicinity Centres has notified the ASX that a total of 78,265 equity-based incentives, comprising 40,761 performance rights (VCXAK) and 37,504 restricted rights (VCXAA), have lapsed as of 31 December 2025 because the conditions attached to these ri...
Vicinity Centres Releases 2025 Modern Slavery Statement
Dec 17, 2025
Vicinity Centres has released its 2025 Modern Slavery Statement, highlighting its commitment to addressing modern slavery risks within its operations and supply chains. This announcement underscores the company’s dedication to ethical practi...
Vicinity Centres Issues Unquoted Equity Securities for Employee Incentive
Dec 11, 2025
Vicinity Centres has announced the issuance of unquoted equity securities, specifically 2,544,526 performance rights and 555,824 restricted rights, as part of an employee incentive scheme. This move is likely aimed at aligning employee interests w...
Vicinity Centres Updates Director’s Equity Incentive Plan
Dec 11, 2025
Vicinity Centres announced a change in the interest of its director, Peter Huddle, with the allocation of 913,591 Performance Rights under the FY2026 Equity Incentive Plan. This adjustment, approved by securityholders at the 2025 Annual General Me...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.