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Vicinity Centres
(Sydney:VCX)
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
AU$3.00
▲(13.21% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/04/26
The score is driven mainly by mixed financial performance (revenue and free-cash-flow growth concerns) balanced by an upbeat earnings call with upgraded guidance and strong operating metrics. Technicals are constructive with price above key moving averages, and valuation is supportive with a low P/E and solid dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Balance sheet strength & liquidity
Lower-end gearing, sizable undrawn facilities and investment-grade ratings provide durable financial flexibility. This capital strength supports development funding, debt refinancing and distributions through cyclical retail conditions, reducing execution risk over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Negative free cash flow growth
A declining free cash flow trajectory constrains the company’s ability to self-fund developments, distributions and capital expenditure. Over 2–6 months this increases reliance on asset sales or debt, raising refinancing and execution risk if market conditions tighten.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Balance sheet strength & liquidity
Lower-end gearing, sizable undrawn facilities and investment-grade ratings provide durable financial flexibility. This capital strength supports development funding, debt refinancing and distributions through cyclical retail conditions, reducing execution risk over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Vicinity Centres (VCX) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$12.58B
Dividend Yield4.55%
Average Volume (3M)7.67M
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.3
Beta (1Y)0.54
Revenue Growth0.27%
EPS Growth60.68%
CountryAU
Employees1,246
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.29
Shares Outstanding4,640,336,400
10 Day Avg. Volume6,620,781
30 Day Avg. Volume7,666,209
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.13
Price to Book (P/B)1.01
Price to Sales (P/S)8.51
P/FCF Ratio17.46
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$2.53Price Target Upside-4.65% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)0.16
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$1.06B
Vicinity Centres Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Vicinity Centres, known as Vicinity or the Group, is a premier retail property organization in Australia. Utilizing a comprehensive and integrated asset management system, it oversees an impressive portfolio of 63 shopping centres with an estimate...
How the Company Makes Money
Vicinity Centres primarily makes money by generating rental and related property income from retailers and other occupants across its shopping-centre portfolio. Key revenue streams typically include: (1) base rent and lease payments from tenants u...
Vicinity Centres Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 18, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 20, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a predominately positive operational and financial picture: record statutory profit, valuation gains, very high occupancy, record leasing spreads, strong retail sales and productivity, successful divestments at premiums, and an upgraded FY'26 NPI/guidance trajectory. Challenges identified — taxes/levies, elevated construction costs, increased security provisions, modest near-term sales seasonality and some one-off items — are meaningful but presented as manageable and largely accounted for in guidance. The balance sheet is strong, liquidity is ample and management has clear strategies to derisk developments and recycle capital, supporting confidence in execution and future returns.Positive Updates
Record Statutory Profit and Valuation Uplift
Net profit after tax of $805.6m for the 6 months (statutory net profit ~$806m), up by more than 60%. Net portfolio valuation growth of $407m (2.6% uplift) in H1 contributed to NTA per security increasing to $2.52, up 4.8% in the half.
Negative Updates
Tax and Levy Headwinds
Burdensome new taxes and levies (including Victorian congestion levies and transfer of fire services levy to property taxes, plus airport land lease-related taxes) negatively impacted like-for-like comparable NPI; management expects these drags to annualize in H2 with a normalization expected in FY'27.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Statutory Profit and Valuation Uplift
Net profit after tax of $805.6m for the 6 months (statutory net profit ~$806m), up by more than 60%. Net portfolio valuation growth of $407m (2.6% uplift) in H1 contributed to NTA per security increasing to $2.52, up 4.8% in the half.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Vicinity upgraded FY‑26 guidance with comparable NPI growth now expected at 3.5%, FFO per security guided around the top end of $0.150–$0.152 and AFFO per security around the top end of $0.128–$0.130, and a full‑year distribution payout ratio targeted at 95–100% of adjusted FFO; the group reiterated a FY‑26 weighted average cost of debt of 5%, an expected hedge ratio on drawn debt of ~89% for FY‑26 (85% for FY‑27), and maintained investment‑grade ratings (S&P A stable, Moody’s A2 stable); balance‑sheet metrics include gearing at 26.3% (pro‑forma 25.8% after the Uptown acquisition and $327m of sales), $1.0bn undrawn facilities and modest FY‑27 maturities (~$300m), while development guidance highlights Chatswood investment of $625m (stabilized yield >6% and unlevered IRR ~10%), Uptown capex of $300–$350m (commencing CY‑2027) with target stabilized yield on cost >6% and unlevered IRR >10%, and loss‑of‑rent guidance for FY‑27 of ~$15m.Vicinity Centres Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
65
Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.34B | 1.32B | 1.31B | 1.23B | 1.18B | 1.11B |
| Gross Profit | 946.80M | 945.00M | 916.50M | 880.80M | 851.50M | 758.20M |
| EBITDA | 1.36B | 1.21B | 736.00M | 446.80M | 785.70M | 506.40M |
| Net Income | 1.32B | 1.00B | 547.10M | 271.50M | 1.22B | -256.80M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 16.93B | 16.34B | 15.73B | 15.58B | 15.55B | 14.34B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 55.70M | 80.70M | 49.60M | 192.90M | 55.60M | 36.20M |
| Total Debt | 5.26B | 4.85B | 4.62B | 4.46B | 4.14B | 3.63B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.19B | 5.21B | 5.09B | 4.95B | 4.67B | 4.33B |
| Stockholders Equity | 11.75B | 11.13B | 10.64B | 10.64B | 10.89B | 10.01B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 188.50M | 644.60M | 353.10M | 367.50M | 334.90M | 598.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 661.30M | 651.00M | 690.10M | 702.20M | 589.50M | 599.90M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -21.60M | -176.80M | -435.70M | -203.20M | -512.30M | -126.50M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -693.40M | -443.10M | -397.70M | -361.70M | -68.80M | -655.30M |
Vicinity Centres Technical Analysis
Positive
2.65
Price Trends
2.60
Positive
2.54
Positive
2.50
Positive
Market Momentum
0.03
Negative
58.99
Neutral
85.71
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:VCX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.65 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.66, above the 50-day MA of 2.60, and above the 200-day MA of 2.50, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.99 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.71 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:VCX.
Vicinity Centres Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | AU$20.76B | 11.59 | 9.54% | 4.45% | 1.82% | 68.91% | |
74 Outperform | AU$10.06B | 12.28 | 7.84% | 4.90% | 3.78% | ― | |
73 Outperform | AU$12.58B | 9.29 | 11.52% | 4.66% | 0.27% | 60.68% | |
73 Outperform | AU$2.46B | 6.12 | 12.47% | 6.57% | 31.33% | 82.16% | |
66 Neutral | AU$7.14B | 18.39 | 4.23% | 5.59% | -8.84% | ― | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
64 Neutral | AU$10.44B | 11.96 | 8.50% | 6.12% | 9.71% | 93.78% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
AU:VCX
Vicinity Centres
2.71
0.32
13.29%
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Vicinity Centres Corporate Events
Vicinity Centres Reports Lapse of Performance and Restricted Rights
Jul 1, 2026
Vicinity Centres has notified the market that a total of 34,355 performance rights and 28,669 restricted rights have lapsed, after the conditions attached to these securities were not met or became incapable of being satisfied as of 30 June 2026. ...
Vicinity Centres posts robust Q3, lifts portfolio quality and secures long-term funding
May 4, 2026
Vicinity Centres reported a strong third quarter for fiscal 2026, underpinned by resilient retailer confidence, near-full portfolio occupancy of 99.6%, positive leasing spreads, and solid retail sales growth, particularly among mini majors. Specia...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.