Mirvac Group (MGR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$8.09B
• Dividend Yield: 4.39%
• Average Volume (3M): 14.71M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 21.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.95
• Revenue Growth: -18.48%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: AU
• Employees: 1,684
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Office
• EPS (TTM): 0.06
• Shares Outstanding: 3,945,860,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 19,818,826
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 14,711,485
• PEG Ratio: -1.18
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.96
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.55
• P/FCF Ratio: 15.84
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: AU$2.38
• Price Target Upside: 19.08% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.13
• Revenue Forecast (FY): AU$903.73M

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$2.00 ▲(0.00% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/23/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/23/26

The score is driven by mixed underlying financial performance (revenue and cash flow pressure despite a stable balance sheet), partially offset by a constructive earnings call with reaffirmed guidance, improving operational momentum, and solid funding metrics. Technical signals are neutral-to-soft and valuation is reasonable with supportive yield, keeping the overall score in the mid-range.

Positive Factors

Balance sheet & liquidity

Lower headline gearing, strong interest cover and A$1bn of available liquidity with no near‑term maturities materially improve financial flexibility. This reduces refinancing risk, supports capital recycling and funds pipeline execution, strengthening the group's ability to deliver projects over the next 2–6 months.

Residential sales & pipeline

A 38% uplift in residential sales, higher margins (22.5%) and ~90% of full‑year sales secured indicate durable demand and improved development economics. Restocked lots and increased MPC projects provide multi‑period settlement visibility, supporting recurring development earnings and capital recycling over the medium term.

Funds & capital partnerships

Strong institutional demand (A$17bn third‑party capital, FUM growth >A$1bn) and recent equity raises deepen fee income and provide capital‑light growth options. Robust third‑party funds reduce reliance on balance sheet capital and support scalable BTR and funds management earnings over several years.

Negative Factors

Weak cash generation

Material revenue decline, low net margin and a 32% drop in free cash flow alongside poor cash conversion (OCF to net income 0.30) signal weaker cash generation. Over a 2–6 month horizon this constrains reinvestment capacity, heightens funding sensitivity and pressures distribution and development funding.

Compressed development returns

Current implied development returns below 10% reflect elevated construction and cost pressures. Persistently depressed development margins reduce capital recycling efficiency and long‑term ROE, meaning new projects may generate weak returns until costs normalize or pricing improves.

Reliance on valuation gains

A material A$120m contribution from property revaluations boosted statutory profit but is non‑cash and cyclical. Continued reliance on valuation uplifts can mask operating performance, increasing profit and distribution volatility across cycles and complicating assessment of recurring cash earnings.

Mirvac Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Mirvac is an Australian property group with a clearly defined purpose to reimagine urban life. By creating beautiful homes, inspiring workplace precincts and thriving shopping centres, we aim to make a positive contribution to our cities and communities. Mirvac was founded in 1972, which means we've been shaping Australia's urban landscape for almost fifty years. Of course, we've evolved a lot over that time growing from a small joint venture to become a thriving ASX-listed property group that leads the way in innovation, sustainability and placemaking. Renowned for the quality of our products, we've created some of Australia's most iconic places and precincts, from thriving masterplanned communities, to landmark offices including our own headquarters at EY Centre, 200 George Street, Sydney. At the heart of every project there exists a deep commitment to our customers and communities.

How the Company Makes Money

Mirvac generates revenue through several key streams. Primarily, the company makes money by developing and selling residential properties, offering a range of apartments and homes to the market. In addition to residential sales, Mirvac earns income from its commercial property portfolio, which includes office spaces and retail centers that are leased to tenants, providing a stable rental income. The company also engages in property management, earning fees from managing assets for third parties. Significant partnerships with government bodies and private entities enhance its development pipeline and project financing. Moreover, Mirvac is increasingly focusing on sustainability initiatives, which can lead to cost savings and increased demand for energy-efficient properties, thereby positively impacting its earnings.

Mirvac Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are mixed: revenue fell 18.23% and net margin is low (2.78%), while EBIT/EBITDA margins remain positive. Balance sheet leverage is manageable (debt-to-equity 0.50) but ROE has been negative recently. Cash generation weakened with free cash flow down 32.35% and low cash conversion (operating cash flow to net income 0.30).

Income Statement

Mirvac Group's income statement shows mixed results. The company experienced a significant revenue decline of 18.23% in the most recent year, impacting profitability. Gross profit margin decreased to 23.73%, and net profit margin was low at 2.78%. However, the company maintained positive EBIT and EBITDA margins, indicating operational efficiency despite revenue challenges.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.50, suggesting manageable leverage. The equity ratio is healthy, indicating a strong asset base supported by equity. However, the return on equity has been negative in recent years, highlighting profitability challenges.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a decline in free cash flow growth by 32.35%, indicating potential cash generation issues. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.30, suggesting limited cash conversion efficiency. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is nearly 1, showing that the company is generating cash close to its net income.

Breakdown	Jun 2025	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.44B	2.95B	1.80B	2.25B	1.92B
Gross Profit	580.00M	833.00M	799.00M	854.00M	909.00M
EBITDA	278.00M	716.00M	41.00M	648.00M	1.11B
Net Income	68.00M	-805.00M	-165.00M	906.00M	901.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	15.08B	15.56B	17.15B	17.38B	16.15B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	236.00M	335.00M	122.00M	558.00M	117.00M
Total Debt	4.54B	4.48B	4.54B	4.29B	3.99B
Total Liabilities	6.02B	6.21B	6.59B	6.18B	5.49B
Stockholders Equity	9.05B	9.35B	10.56B	11.13B	10.59B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	548.00M	540.00M	-62.00M	888.00M	630.00M
Operating Cash Flow	550.00M	542.00M	-57.00M	896.00M	635.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-155.00M	126.00M	-315.00M	-436.00M	-492.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-494.00M	-455.00M	-64.00M	-19.00M	-350.00M

Mirvac Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 2.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:MGR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.98, below the 50-day MA of 2.00, and below the 200-day MA of 2.16, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.34 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:MGR.

Mirvac Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CQE	74 Outperform	AU$1.07B	12.30	4.86%	5.18%	―	―
CHC	70 Outperform	AU$10.44B	27.44	24.58%	1.97%	15.06%	47.66%
SCG	70 Outperform	AU$19.93B	11.18	7.71%	4.13%	5.44%	231.88%
GPT	69 Neutral	$9.69B	9.88	3.56%	4.41%	12.66%	―
MGR	66 Neutral	AU$8.09B	20.96	0.71%	4.39%	-18.48%	―
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
GMG	65 Neutral	$59.18B	34.49	7.99%	1.02%	16.87%	―

Mirvac Group Corporate Events

Mirvac Reports Lapse of 249,987 Long-Term Incentive Performance Rights

Mirvac Group has notified the market of the cessation of 249,987 MGRAK LTP performance rights, which lapsed on 31 December 2025 after the conditions attached to those rights were not met or became incapable of being satisfied. The lapsing of these long-term incentive performance rights reflects a reduction in potential equity issuance under Mirvac’s incentive arrangements, modestly affecting its issued capital structure and signalling that certain performance hurdles linked to these rights were not achieved.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MGR) stock is a Sell with a A$2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mirvac Group stock, see the AU:MGR Stock Forecast page.

Mirvac Announces Lapse of 38,716 Long-Term Performance Rights

Mirvac Group has notified the market of the cessation of 38,716 LTP performance rights (ASX code MGRAK) following the lapse of conditional rights that could not be satisfied as of 30 November 2025. The lapse reduces the pool of potential equity-based remuneration tied to these long-term performance incentives, marginally affecting Mirvac’s issued capital structure and reflecting performance or condition outcomes linked to this tranche of rights.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MGR) stock is a Buy with a A$2.55 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mirvac Group stock, see the AU:MGR Stock Forecast page.

Mirvac Group Finalizes Securities Buy-Back Program

Mirvac Group has announced the finalization of its securities buy-back program, as indicated in their latest notification to the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX). This move is part of Mirvac’s strategic financial management, potentially impacting its capital structure and shareholder value, reflecting the company’s commitment to optimizing its financial operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MGR) stock is a Buy with a A$2.60 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mirvac Group stock, see the AU:MGR Stock Forecast page.

Mirvac Group Announces 4.7 Cent Distribution from Property Trust

Mirvac Group has announced a distribution of 4.7 cents per stapled security from Mirvac Property Trust, with no dividend being paid from Mirvac Limited. The distribution relates to a six-month period ending on December 31, 2025, with the payment scheduled for February 26, 2026. This announcement reflects Mirvac’s ongoing financial strategies and impacts stakeholders by providing a return on investment through the property trust.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MGR) stock is a Buy with a A$2.60 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mirvac Group stock, see the AU:MGR Stock Forecast page.

Mirvac Group Announces Director’s Interest Change

Mirvac Group announced a change in the director’s interest, specifically for Campbell John Hanan, who has been allotted 962,237 Performance Rights under the FY26 Long Term Incentive Plan. This change, approved at the company’s Annual General Meeting, reflects the company’s commitment to aligning executive incentives with long-term shareholder value, potentially impacting its strategic direction and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MGR) stock is a Hold with a A$2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mirvac Group stock, see the AU:MGR Stock Forecast page.

Mirvac Group Director’s Interest Update: Strategic Alignment with Company Performance

Mirvac Group announced a change in the director’s interest, specifically regarding Rosemary Beryl Hartnett, who has converted her rights to acquire stapled securities into 41,111 stapled securities, resulting in a total holding of 56,111 stapled securities. This change reflects the vesting of rights under the Mirvac Group Non-Executive Director Fee Sacrifice Rights Plan, indicating a strategic move to align director interests with company performance, potentially impacting stakeholder confidence and market perception.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MGR) stock is a Hold with a A$2.31 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mirvac Group stock, see the AU:MGR Stock Forecast page.

Mirvac Group Issues New Equity Securities

Mirvac Group has announced the issuance of 79,533 fully paid ordinary units stapled securities, effective November 26, 2025. This move reflects the company’s ongoing efforts to manage its equity and optimize its capital structure, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MGR) stock is a Hold with a A$2.31 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mirvac Group stock, see the AU:MGR Stock Forecast page.