Mirvac Group (MGR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$7.79B
• Dividend Yield: 4.39%
• Average Volume (3M): 14.71M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 116.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.94
• Revenue Growth: -18.48%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: AU
• Employees: 1,684
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Office
• EPS (TTM): 0.06
• Shares Outstanding: 3,945,860,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 19,818,826
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 14,711,485
• PEG Ratio: -1.18
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.96
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.55
• P/FCF Ratio: 15.84
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: AU$2.42
• Price Target Upside: 22.21% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 54 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$2.00 ▲(1.01% Upside)

Mirvac Group's overall stock score reflects significant financial and technical challenges. The most impactful factors are the declining revenue and profitability, coupled with bearish technical indicators. The high P/E ratio suggests overvaluation, though the dividend yield offers some compensation. Investors should be cautious given the current financial and market conditions.

Positive Factors

Sustainability Initiatives

Mirvac's focus on sustainability can lead to cost savings and increased demand for energy-efficient properties, enhancing long-term competitiveness and appeal.

Stable Balance Sheet

A stable balance sheet with manageable leverage ensures financial flexibility, supporting long-term strategic investments and resilience against economic fluctuations.

Operational Efficiency

Operational efficiency, as indicated by positive EBIT and EBITDA margins, allows Mirvac to maintain profitability and competitive positioning despite revenue challenges.

Negative Factors

Revenue Decline

A significant revenue decline impacts profitability and may hinder the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities, affecting long-term prospects.

Profitability Challenges

Low profit margins indicate profitability challenges, which can limit reinvestment capacity and affect shareholder returns over the long term.

Cash Flow Issues

Declining free cash flow growth suggests potential cash generation issues, impacting the company's ability to fund operations and growth initiatives sustainably.

Mirvac Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Mirvac is an Australian property group with a clearly defined purpose to reimagine urban life. By creating beautiful homes, inspiring workplace precincts and thriving shopping centres, we aim to make a positive contribution to our cities and communities. Mirvac was founded in 1972, which means we've been shaping Australia's urban landscape for almost fifty years. Of course, we've evolved a lot over that time growing from a small joint venture to become a thriving ASX-listed property group that leads the way in innovation, sustainability and placemaking. Renowned for the quality of our products, we've created some of Australia's most iconic places and precincts, from thriving masterplanned communities, to landmark offices including our own headquarters at EY Centre, 200 George Street, Sydney. At the heart of every project there exists a deep commitment to our customers and communities.

How the Company Makes Money

Mirvac generates revenue through several key streams. Primarily, the company makes money by developing and selling residential properties, offering a range of apartments and homes to the market. In addition to residential sales, Mirvac earns income from its commercial property portfolio, which includes office spaces and retail centers that are leased to tenants, providing a stable rental income. The company also engages in property management, earning fees from managing assets for third parties. Significant partnerships with government bodies and private entities enhance its development pipeline and project financing. Moreover, Mirvac is increasingly focusing on sustainability initiatives, which can lead to cost savings and increased demand for energy-efficient properties, thereby positively impacting its earnings.

Mirvac Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mirvac Group's financial performance is mixed. The income statement shows a significant revenue decline and low net profit margin, though operational efficiency is maintained. The balance sheet is stable with moderate leverage, but profitability challenges persist. Cash flow issues are evident with a decline in free cash flow growth, though cash generation is close to net income.

Income Statement

Mirvac Group's income statement shows mixed results. The company experienced a significant revenue decline of 18.23% in the most recent year, impacting profitability. Gross profit margin decreased to 23.73%, and net profit margin was low at 2.78%. However, the company maintained positive EBIT and EBITDA margins, indicating operational efficiency despite revenue challenges.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.50, suggesting manageable leverage. The equity ratio is healthy, indicating a strong asset base supported by equity. However, the return on equity has been negative in recent years, highlighting profitability challenges.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a decline in free cash flow growth by 32.35%, indicating potential cash generation issues. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.30, suggesting limited cash conversion efficiency. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is nearly 1, showing that the company is generating cash close to its net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.44B	2.44B	2.95B	1.80B	2.25B	1.92B
Gross Profit	580.00M	580.00M	833.00M	799.00M	854.00M	909.00M
EBITDA	425.00M	278.00M	716.00M	41.00M	648.00M	1.11B
Net Income	68.00M	68.00M	-805.00M	-165.00M	906.00M	901.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	15.08B	15.08B	15.56B	17.15B	17.38B	16.15B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	236.00M	236.00M	335.00M	122.00M	558.00M	117.00M
Total Debt	4.54B	4.54B	4.48B	4.54B	4.29B	3.99B
Total Liabilities	6.02B	6.02B	6.21B	6.59B	6.18B	5.49B
Stockholders Equity	9.05B	9.05B	9.35B	10.56B	11.13B	10.59B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	548.00M	548.00M	540.00M	-62.00M	888.00M	630.00M
Operating Cash Flow	550.00M	550.00M	542.00M	-57.00M	896.00M	635.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-155.00M	-155.00M	126.00M	-315.00M	-436.00M	-492.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-494.00M	-494.00M	-455.00M	-64.00M	-19.00M	-350.00M

Mirvac Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1.98
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:MGR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.98 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.01, below the 50-day MA of 2.04, and below the 200-day MA of 2.18, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.91 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 35.29 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:MGR.

Mirvac Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CQE	74 Outperform	$1.06B	12.60	4.86%	5.18%	―	―
SCG	70 Outperform	AU$20.89B	14.70	7.71%	4.13%	5.44%	231.88%
CHC	66 Neutral	$10.93B	48.81	24.58%	1.97%	15.06%	47.66%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
GPT	60 Neutral	AU$9.94B	26.77	3.56%	4.41%	12.66%	―
MGR	54 Neutral	AU$7.79B	115.99	0.71%	4.39%	-18.48%	―
GMG	54 Neutral	AU$62.90B	36.71	7.99%	1.02%	16.87%	―

Mirvac Group Corporate Events

Mirvac Reports Lapse of 249,987 Long-Term Incentive Performance Rights

Mirvac Group has notified the market of the cessation of 249,987 MGRAK LTP performance rights, which lapsed on 31 December 2025 after the conditions attached to those rights were not met or became incapable of being satisfied. The lapsing of these long-term incentive performance rights reflects a reduction in potential equity issuance under Mirvac’s incentive arrangements, modestly affecting its issued capital structure and signalling that certain performance hurdles linked to these rights were not achieved.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MGR) stock is a Sell with a A$2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mirvac Group stock, see the AU:MGR Stock Forecast page.

Mirvac Announces Lapse of 38,716 Long-Term Performance Rights

Mirvac Group has notified the market of the cessation of 38,716 LTP performance rights (ASX code MGRAK) following the lapse of conditional rights that could not be satisfied as of 30 November 2025. The lapse reduces the pool of potential equity-based remuneration tied to these long-term performance incentives, marginally affecting Mirvac’s issued capital structure and reflecting performance or condition outcomes linked to this tranche of rights.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MGR) stock is a Buy with a A$2.55 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mirvac Group stock, see the AU:MGR Stock Forecast page.

Mirvac Group Finalizes Securities Buy-Back Program

Mirvac Group has announced the finalization of its securities buy-back program, as indicated in their latest notification to the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX). This move is part of Mirvac’s strategic financial management, potentially impacting its capital structure and shareholder value, reflecting the company’s commitment to optimizing its financial operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MGR) stock is a Buy with a A$2.60 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mirvac Group stock, see the AU:MGR Stock Forecast page.

Mirvac Group Announces 4.7 Cent Distribution from Property Trust

Mirvac Group has announced a distribution of 4.7 cents per stapled security from Mirvac Property Trust, with no dividend being paid from Mirvac Limited. The distribution relates to a six-month period ending on December 31, 2025, with the payment scheduled for February 26, 2026. This announcement reflects Mirvac’s ongoing financial strategies and impacts stakeholders by providing a return on investment through the property trust.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MGR) stock is a Buy with a A$2.60 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mirvac Group stock, see the AU:MGR Stock Forecast page.

Mirvac Group Announces Director’s Interest Change

Mirvac Group announced a change in the director’s interest, specifically for Campbell John Hanan, who has been allotted 962,237 Performance Rights under the FY26 Long Term Incentive Plan. This change, approved at the company’s Annual General Meeting, reflects the company’s commitment to aligning executive incentives with long-term shareholder value, potentially impacting its strategic direction and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MGR) stock is a Hold with a A$2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mirvac Group stock, see the AU:MGR Stock Forecast page.

Mirvac Group Director’s Interest Update: Strategic Alignment with Company Performance

Mirvac Group announced a change in the director’s interest, specifically regarding Rosemary Beryl Hartnett, who has converted her rights to acquire stapled securities into 41,111 stapled securities, resulting in a total holding of 56,111 stapled securities. This change reflects the vesting of rights under the Mirvac Group Non-Executive Director Fee Sacrifice Rights Plan, indicating a strategic move to align director interests with company performance, potentially impacting stakeholder confidence and market perception.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MGR) stock is a Hold with a A$2.31 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mirvac Group stock, see the AU:MGR Stock Forecast page.

Mirvac Group Issues New Equity Securities

Mirvac Group has announced the issuance of 79,533 fully paid ordinary units stapled securities, effective November 26, 2025. This move reflects the company’s ongoing efforts to manage its equity and optimize its capital structure, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MGR) stock is a Hold with a A$2.31 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mirvac Group stock, see the AU:MGR Stock Forecast page.

Mirvac Group Reports Strategic Progress and Growth Outlook at 2025 AGM

At the 2025 Annual General Meeting, Mirvac Group highlighted its successful execution of strategic initiatives under CEO Campbell Hanan’s leadership, setting the stage for future growth. The company reported progress in capital partnering, expansion in the living sector, and refinement of its investment portfolio, indicating a positive outlook for FY26 and beyond.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MGR) stock is a Hold with a A$2.31 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mirvac Group stock, see the AU:MGR Stock Forecast page.