Mirvac Group (MGR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$7.04B
• Dividend Yield: 4.39%
• Average Volume (3M): 14.71M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 6.3
• Beta (1Y): 1.05
• Revenue Growth: -18.48%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: AU
• Employees: 1,684
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Office
• EPS (TTM): 0.06
• Shares Outstanding: 3,945,860,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 19,818,826
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 14,711,485
• PEG Ratio: -1.18
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.96
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.55
• P/FCF Ratio: 15.84
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: AU$2.33
• Price Target Upside: 16.58% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.13
• Revenue Forecast (FY): AU$902.34M

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$2.00 ▲(0.00% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/23/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/23/26

The score is driven by mixed underlying financial performance (revenue and cash flow pressure despite a stable balance sheet), partially offset by a constructive earnings call with reaffirmed guidance, improving operational momentum, and solid funding metrics. Technical signals are neutral-to-soft and valuation is reasonable with supportive yield, keeping the overall score in the mid-range.

Positive Factors

Balance sheet strength and liquidity

A conservative gearing level, solid interest cover and A$1.0bn undrawn liquidity materially reduce refinancing and short‑term funding risk. Over 2–6 months this supports disciplined capital recycling, funding of committed developments and resilience to higher rates without forcing distressed asset sales.

Restocked residential pipeline with higher margins

A materially restocked, largely secured residential pipeline with improving margins and rising settlements creates durable forward revenue visibility. Over the medium term this supports predictable cash inflows, higher development margin capture and reduces earnings volatility tied to one-off project timing.

Scale of third‑party capital and recurring fund platforms

Large and growing institutional capital (A$17bn) and fund raises improve fee income durability and reduce balance‑sheet intensity via capital partnerships. Scale in BTR and funds provides recurring management fees and predictable NOI, strengthening long‑term earnings diversification away from volatile development profits.

Negative Factors

Compressed development returns

Current development returns below 10% on invested capital indicate material margin pressure from higher construction and legacy cost impacts. Persistently depressed development yields would reduce capital recycling efficiency and elongate payback periods, constraining long‑term profit generation until returns recover.

Weakened cash generation and low cash conversion

A >30% drop in free cash flow and poor cash conversion (OCF/net income ~0.30) signal limited internal funding capacity. Structurally this increases reliance on asset sales or external capital for development and capex, reducing financial flexibility and making results more sensitive to capital market conditions over the next several quarters.

Office leasing and disposal execution risk

Incomplete pre‑leasing on large office projects and a program of disposals create execution risk: slower leasing or sales can delay NOI recovery and capital recycling. Over a multi‑quarter horizon, this could depress recurring income and require further active management or pricing concessions to complete repositioning.

Mirvac Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Mirvac is an Australian property group with a clearly defined purpose to reimagine urban life. By creating beautiful homes, inspiring workplace precincts and thriving shopping centres, we aim to make a positive contribution to our cities and communities. Mirvac was founded in 1972, which means we've been shaping Australia's urban landscape for almost fifty years. Of course, we've evolved a lot over that time growing from a small joint venture to become a thriving ASX-listed property group that leads the way in innovation, sustainability and placemaking. Renowned for the quality of our products, we've created some of Australia's most iconic places and precincts, from thriving masterplanned communities, to landmark offices including our own headquarters at EY Centre, 200 George Street, Sydney. At the heart of every project there exists a deep commitment to our customers and communities.

How the Company Makes Money

Mirvac primarily makes money through a combination of (1) property development earnings and (2) recurring income from investment properties, supported by management and related property services. 1) Residential property development (development revenue and margins) - Mirvac develops residential communities and apartments and generates revenue when it sells completed lots, houses, and apartments to customers. - Earnings are driven by the margin between total development costs (land acquisition, planning, construction, financing, and selling costs) and sales proceeds, as well as the pace of settlements/handovers. 2) Commercial and multifamily development (development profits and capital recycling) - Mirvac develops office, industrial, retail, and build-to-rent assets. It can generate development profit by: - Building assets for sale to third-party investors (recognising profit on sale), and/or - Developing assets that are retained in its investment portfolio (where value creation may be realised over time via revaluations and/or future sales). - A key factor is “capital recycling” (selling mature assets to reinvest in new developments), where proceeds and any gains on sale contribute to earnings and fund new projects. 3) Investment property income (recurring rental revenue) - Mirvac owns and operates a portfolio of completed properties (e.g., offices, industrial, retail centres, and build-to-rent) that generate recurring revenue from: - Contracted rents from tenants - Related property income (e.g., recoveries of certain outgoings, depending on lease structures) - Profitability depends on occupancy, lease terms, rent reviews/escalations, tenant demand, and operating costs. 4) Property management and services (fees) - Mirvac earns fees for property management, leasing, and asset management activities it performs on properties it manages (including its own assets and, where applicable, third-party interests). - These fee streams are generally more recurring in nature than development income, though the mix can vary by period. 5) Other factors influencing earnings - Property valuations and disposals: Changes in the fair value of investment properties and gains/losses on asset sales can materially affect reported earnings in periods where they occur. - Funding structure: Interest costs and access to capital markets affect net earnings, given the capital-intensive nature of property development and ownership. Significant partnerships or major counterparties: null

Mirvac Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials are mixed: revenue fell 18.23% and net margin is low (2.78%), while EBIT/EBITDA margins remain positive. Balance sheet leverage is manageable (debt-to-equity 0.50) but ROE has been negative recently. Cash generation weakened with free cash flow down 32.35% and low cash conversion (operating cash flow to net income 0.30).

Income Statement

Mirvac Group's income statement shows mixed results. The company experienced a significant revenue decline of 18.23% in the most recent year, impacting profitability. Gross profit margin decreased to 23.73%, and net profit margin was low at 2.78%. However, the company maintained positive EBIT and EBITDA margins, indicating operational efficiency despite revenue challenges.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a stable financial position with a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.50, suggesting manageable leverage. The equity ratio is healthy, indicating a strong asset base supported by equity. However, the return on equity has been negative in recent years, highlighting profitability challenges.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a decline in free cash flow growth by 32.35%, indicating potential cash generation issues. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low at 0.30, suggesting limited cash conversion efficiency. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is nearly 1, showing that the company is generating cash close to its net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Jun 2025	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.63B	2.44B	2.95B	1.80B	2.25B	1.92B
Gross Profit	583.00M	580.00M	833.00M	799.00M	854.00M	909.00M
EBITDA	685.00M	278.00M	716.00M	41.00M	648.00M	1.11B
Net Income	386.00M	68.00M	-805.00M	-165.00M	906.00M	901.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	14.49B	15.08B	15.56B	17.15B	17.38B	16.15B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	126.00M	236.00M	335.00M	122.00M	558.00M	117.00M
Total Debt	4.02B	4.54B	4.48B	4.54B	4.29B	3.99B
Total Liabilities	5.31B	6.02B	6.21B	6.59B	6.18B	5.49B
Stockholders Equity	9.19B	9.05B	9.35B	10.56B	11.13B	10.59B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	648.00M	548.00M	540.00M	-62.00M	888.00M	630.00M
Operating Cash Flow	649.00M	550.00M	542.00M	-57.00M	896.00M	635.00M
Investing Cash Flow	245.00M	-155.00M	126.00M	-315.00M	-436.00M	-492.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-844.00M	-494.00M	-455.00M	-64.00M	-19.00M	-350.00M

Mirvac Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 2.00
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:MGR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.91, above the 50-day MA of 1.96, and below the 200-day MA of 2.14, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.05 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 31.90 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.44 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:MGR.

Mirvac Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SCG	74 Outperform	AU$17.79B	12.29	9.54%	4.13%	5.44%	231.88%
CQE	74 Outperform	AU$953.75M	6.08	4.86%	5.18%	―	―
CHC	70 Outperform	AU$8.79B	10.60	19.38%	1.97%	15.06%	47.66%
GPT	69 Neutral	AU$8.66B	10.58	7.84%	4.41%	12.66%	―
MGR	66 Neutral	AU$7.04B	6.34	4.23%	4.39%	-18.48%	―
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
GMG	65 Neutral	AU$51.16B	19.16	7.19%	1.02%	16.87%	―

Mirvac Group Corporate Events

Mirvac advances board renewal as long-serving director steps down

Mirvac Group has announced that Non-Executive Director Christine Bartlett will resign from the Board effective 30 April 2026, after serving since December 2014 and leading the Human Resources Committee for the past five years. The Board and its chair, Rob Sindel, praised Bartlett’s significant contribution during a period of considerable change and growth, highlighting her experience, insight and governance leadership.

As part of its ongoing board renewal program, Mirvac will transition the chairmanship of its Human Resources Committee to current director Rosemary Hartnett from 1 May 2026, ensuring continuity in oversight of people and culture. The move underscores Mirvac’s focus on maintaining an appropriate mix of skills and perspectives at board level, which is particularly important as the diversified property group navigates its substantial development pipeline and evolving market conditions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MGR) stock is a Hold with a A$2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mirvac Group stock, see the AU:MGR Stock Forecast page.

Mirvac director Campbell Hanan lifts indirect stake through on‑market purchase

Mirvac Group has disclosed a change in director Campbell John Hanan’s interests in the company’s stapled securities, as required under ASX listing rules. The filing shows that Hanan holds his interests both directly and indirectly through related entities.

According to the notice, an associated entity of Hanan acquired 50,000 Mirvac stapled securities on market at $1.825 per security on 9 March 2026. Following this transaction, Hanan’s indirect holdings increased while his direct stapled security position remained nil, and his performance rights balance was unchanged, providing investors with updated transparency on executive alignment with shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MGR) stock is a Hold with a A$2.17 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mirvac Group stock, see the AU:MGR Stock Forecast page.

Mirvac Reports Lapse of 354,995 Long-Term Incentive Performance Rights

Mirvac Group has notified the market of a change to its issued capital, following the lapse of 354,995 MGRAK long-term incentive performance rights. The rights ceased on 31 January 2026 because the performance or vesting conditions were not met, or could no longer be satisfied, resulting in no new securities being issued under this tranche.

The cessation of these performance rights effectively reduces the pool of potential equity that could have been created under Mirvac’s long-term incentive arrangements. This outcome may modestly limit prospective dilution for existing security holders and reflects performance outcomes relative to the hurdles attached to this specific incentive grant.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MGR) stock is a Hold with a A$2.17 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mirvac Group stock, see the AU:MGR Stock Forecast page.

Mirvac Director Hartnett Increases Holding in Stapled Securities

Mirvac Group has reported a change in the interests of non-executive director Rosemary Beryl Hartnett, reflecting an on-market purchase of additional stapled securities. Hartnett acquired 7,500 Mirvac stapled securities at $1.9995 each, increasing her direct holding from 56,111 to 63,611 securities, with no associated rights to acquire further stapled securities.

The transaction was conducted as an on-market trade and did not occur during a closed period, meaning no prior trading clearance was required under the company’s governance framework. The purchase signals increased personal exposure by a board member to Mirvac’s equity, a move that may be interpreted by investors as a sign of confidence in the group’s outlook and alignment with shareholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MGR) stock is a Hold with a A$2.17 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mirvac Group stock, see the AU:MGR Stock Forecast page.

Mirvac Director Damien Frawley Increases Stake Via On-Market Purchase

Mirvac Group has disclosed a change in director Damien John Frawley’s holding, following an on-market purchase of additional stapled securities. Frawley acquired 2,000 ordinary stapled securities at $1.97 each on 23 February 2026, increasing his direct interest from 88,415 to 90,415 stapled securities.

The transaction, executed through Stonehouse Pastoral Company Pty Ltd under the Frawley Family account, represents a modest increase in the director’s equity exposure to Mirvac. The company confirmed the trade did not occur during a closed period requiring prior written clearance, indicating the purchase was conducted under normal trading conditions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MGR) stock is a Hold with a A$2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mirvac Group stock, see the AU:MGR Stock Forecast page.

Mirvac Reports Lapse of 249,987 Long-Term Incentive Performance Rights

Mirvac Group has notified the market of the cessation of 249,987 MGRAK LTP performance rights, which lapsed on 31 December 2025 after the conditions attached to those rights were not met or became incapable of being satisfied. The lapsing of these long-term incentive performance rights reflects a reduction in potential equity issuance under Mirvac’s incentive arrangements, modestly affecting its issued capital structure and signalling that certain performance hurdles linked to these rights were not achieved.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MGR) stock is a Sell with a A$2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mirvac Group stock, see the AU:MGR Stock Forecast page.

Mirvac Announces Lapse of 38,716 Long-Term Performance Rights

Mirvac Group has notified the market of the cessation of 38,716 LTP performance rights (ASX code MGRAK) following the lapse of conditional rights that could not be satisfied as of 30 November 2025. The lapse reduces the pool of potential equity-based remuneration tied to these long-term performance incentives, marginally affecting Mirvac’s issued capital structure and reflecting performance or condition outcomes linked to this tranche of rights.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:MGR) stock is a Buy with a A$2.55 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Mirvac Group stock, see the AU:MGR Stock Forecast page.