Mirvac Group (AU:MGR)
ASX:MGR
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Mirvac Group
(Sydney:MGR)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
AU$2.00
▲(0.00% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/23/26
The score is driven by mixed underlying financial performance (revenue and cash flow pressure despite a stable balance sheet), partially offset by a constructive earnings call with reaffirmed guidance, improving operational momentum, and solid funding metrics. Technical signals are neutral-to-soft and valuation is reasonable with supportive yield, keeping the overall score in the mid-range.
Positive Factors
Funds growth & capital partners
A$17bn of third‑party capital and >A$1bn FUM growth provide durable fee‑based revenue and capital access. Large institutional partners reduce Mirvac's funding burden, enable capital recycling, and deepen long‑term fee income and scale advantages that support recurring earnings and growth visibility.
Negative Factors
Compressed development returns
Sub‑10% current returns on deployed development capital are below through‑cycle targets, weakening ROIC and slowing capital recycling. Persistently compressed development margins reduce long‑term earnings power from core activities and require sustained margin improvement or structural cost reductions to meet investor return expectations.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Funds growth & capital partners
A$17bn of third‑party capital and >A$1bn FUM growth provide durable fee‑based revenue and capital access. Large institutional partners reduce Mirvac's funding burden, enable capital recycling, and deepen long‑term fee income and scale advantages that support recurring earnings and growth visibility.
Read all positive factors
Mirvac Group (MGR) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$6.82B
Dividend Yield4.39%
Average Volume (3M)14.71M
Price to Earnings (P/E)6.3
Beta (1Y)0.95
Revenue Growth-18.48%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryAU
Employees1,684
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Office
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.06
Shares Outstanding3,945,860,000
10 Day Avg. Volume19,818,826
30 Day Avg. Volume14,711,485
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.18
Price to Book (P/B)0.96
Price to Sales (P/S)3.55
P/FCF Ratio15.84
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$2.19Price Target Upside9.29% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)0.13
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$901.49M
Mirvac Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Mirvac is an Australian property group with a clearly defined purpose to reimagine urban life. By creating beautiful homes, inspiring workplace precincts and thriving shopping centres, we aim to make a positive contribution to our cities and commu...
How the Company Makes Money
Mirvac primarily makes money through a combination of (1) property development earnings and (2) recurring income from investment properties, supported by management and related property services.
1) Residential property development (development r...
Mirvac Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 17, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented broad operational momentum and multiple tangible wins—strong residential sales and margin recovery, clear living and industrial outperformance, portfolio repositioning to higher‑quality office, meaningful fund raises and capital partnerships, improved liquidity and a lower gearing profile. Key near‑term weaknesses include higher net financing costs, compressed development returns (legacy cost pressures) and reliance on valuation gains in statutory profit, plus remaining office leasing and disposal execution. On balance the positives—improving margins, restocked pipeline, recurring income growth and strong capital‑partner demand—materially outweigh the lowlights.Positive Updates
Group financial growth
Group EBIT grew 10% year-on-year; operating profit after tax of $248m (A$0.063 per stapled security), up 5% on the prior half; EPS up 5%; statutory profit of $319m including A$120m of positive investment revaluations; NTA increased by A$0.04 to A$2.30; headline gearing moderated to 25.8%.
Negative Updates
Rising net financing costs and lower capitalized interest
Net financing costs were A$129m, up A$19m on the prior half, primarily due to lower capitalized interest despite a reduction in gross interest expense; this increased financing charge constrains near‑term margins.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Group financial growth
Group EBIT grew 10% year-on-year; operating profit after tax of $248m (A$0.063 per stapled security), up 5% on the prior half; EPS up 5%; statutory profit of $319m including A$120m of positive investment revaluations; NTA increased by A$0.04 to A$2.30; headline gearing moderated to 25.8%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Mirvac reaffirmed FY26 earnings guidance of $0.128–$0.130 per stapled security and a distribution of $0.095, while flagging continued earnings growth after a strong H1 (operating profit after tax $248m or $0.063 per security, +5% half‑on‑half; statutory profit $319m including $120m of revaluations; group EBIT +10%; EPS +5%; NTA +$0.04 to $2.30). Key balance‑sheet and funding metrics include headline gearing moderating to 25.8%, interest cover >3.5x, average cost of debt 5.3%, $1.0bn available liquidity, $1.3bn refinanced this half at ~115bps (a further $3.0bn at ~180bps), and a 60–80% distribution policy; capital‑raising track record includes ~$9bn raised over 5 years (c.$6bn from capital partners, ~$3bn asset sales). Forward drivers and pipeline metrics cited as supporting guidance include ~$100m of future NOI to be realised over 3–4 years, committed developments expected to add ~$2.3bn to FUM (embedded FUM growth ~ $2.3bn), third‑party capital of $17bn (FUM +$1bn in 6 months), MWOF $430m equity raise, BTR platform ~2,200 apartments (LIV like‑for‑like +6%, valuation uplift ~4%), land‑lease platform >7,500 lots (sales +50%, settlements +21%, comparable EBIT +50%), residential sales +38% with margins up to 22.5% and settlements ~22% (H1 settlements 835; full‑year settlement target 2,000–2,300; ~90% secured), and a referenced development earnings expectation of ~ $270m for the year.Mirvac Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
65
Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.63B | 2.44B | 2.95B | 1.80B | 2.25B | 1.92B |
| Gross Profit | 583.00M | 580.00M | 833.00M | 799.00M | 854.00M | 909.00M |
| EBITDA | 685.00M | 278.00M | 716.00M | 41.00M | 648.00M | 1.11B |
| Net Income | 386.00M | 68.00M | -805.00M | -165.00M | 906.00M | 901.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 14.49B | 15.08B | 15.56B | 17.15B | 17.38B | 16.15B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 126.00M | 236.00M | 335.00M | 122.00M | 558.00M | 117.00M |
| Total Debt | 4.02B | 4.54B | 4.48B | 4.54B | 4.29B | 3.99B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.31B | 6.02B | 6.21B | 6.59B | 6.18B | 5.49B |
| Stockholders Equity | 9.19B | 9.05B | 9.35B | 10.56B | 11.13B | 10.59B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 648.00M | 548.00M | 540.00M | -62.00M | 888.00M | 630.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 649.00M | 550.00M | 542.00M | -57.00M | 896.00M | 635.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 245.00M | -155.00M | 126.00M | -315.00M | -436.00M | -492.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -844.00M | -494.00M | -455.00M | -64.00M | -19.00M | -350.00M |
Mirvac Group Technical Analysis
Negative
2.00
Price Trends
1.89
Negative
1.97
Negative
2.11
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.05
Negative
37.18
Neutral
34.17
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:MGR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.78, above the 50-day MA of 1.89, and below the 200-day MA of 2.11, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 37.18 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 34.17 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:MGR.
Mirvac Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | AU$9.54B | 10.60 | 19.38% | 1.97% | 15.06% | 47.66% | |
69 Neutral | AU$8.91B | 10.58 | 7.84% | 4.41% | 12.66% | ― | |
66 Neutral | AU$6.82B | 6.34 | 4.23% | 4.39% | -18.48% | ― | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
64 Neutral | AU$10.00B | 11.82 | 8.50% | 4.29% | 4.75% | 170.39% | |
56 Neutral | AU$6.40B | 5.34 | 4.78% | 5.32% | 4.52% | ― | |
44 Neutral | AU$2.18B | -2.78 | -2.65% | 4.55% | -17.23% | ― |
* Real Estate Sector Average
AU:MGR
Mirvac Group
1.73
-0.33
-15.94%
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Mirvac Group Corporate Events
Mirvac advances board renewal as long-serving director steps down
Mar 23, 2026
Mirvac Group has announced that Non-Executive Director Christine Bartlett will resign from the Board effective 30 April 2026, after serving since December 2014 and leading the Human Resources Committee for the past five years. The Board and its ch...
Mirvac director Campbell Hanan lifts indirect stake through on‑market purchase
Mar 10, 2026
Mirvac Group has disclosed a change in director Campbell John Hanan’s interests in the company’s stapled securities, as required under ASX listing rules. The filing shows that Hanan holds his interests both directly and indirectly thro...
Mirvac Reports Lapse of 354,995 Long-Term Incentive Performance Rights
Mar 6, 2026
Mirvac Group has notified the market of a change to its issued capital, following the lapse of 354,995 MGRAK long-term incentive performance rights. The rights ceased on 31 January 2026 because the performance or vesting conditions were not met, o...
Mirvac Director Hartnett Increases Holding in Stapled Securities
Mar 6, 2026
Mirvac Group has reported a change in the interests of non-executive director Rosemary Beryl Hartnett, reflecting an on-market purchase of additional stapled securities. Hartnett acquired 7,500 Mirvac stapled securities at $1.9995 each, increasing...
Mirvac Director Damien Frawley Increases Stake Via On-Market Purchase
Feb 26, 2026
Mirvac Group has disclosed a change in director Damien John Frawley’s holding, following an on-market purchase of additional stapled securities. Frawley acquired 2,000 ordinary stapled securities at $1.97 each on 23 February 2026, increasing...
Mirvac Reports Lapse of 249,987 Long-Term Incentive Performance Rights
Feb 2, 2026
Mirvac Group has notified the market of the cessation of 249,987 MGRAK LTP performance rights, which lapsed on 31 December 2025 after the conditions attached to those rights were not met or became incapable of being satisfied. The lapsing of these...
Mirvac Announces Lapse of 38,716 Long-Term Performance Rights
Jan 21, 2026
Mirvac Group has notified the market of the cessation of 38,716 LTP performance rights (ASX code MGRAK) following the lapse of conditional rights that could not be satisfied as of 30 November 2025. The lapse reduces the pool of potential equity-ba...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.