Northern Star Resources Ltd (AU:NST)
ASX:NST
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Northern Star Resources Ltd
(Sydney:NST)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
AU$20.00
â–¼(-9.50% Downside)
Action:DowngradedDate:03/14/26
The score is driven by strong financial performance (growth, margins, low leverage, and improving cash flow), partially offset by weak technicals (price below all key moving averages and negative MACD). Valuation is supportive with a moderate P/E and dividend yield, but not strong enough to outweigh the current bearish price trend.
Positive Factors
Strong revenue and margins
Sustained double-digit revenue growth and high operating margins indicate durable product pricing power and efficient mine operations. These margins provide internal funding for reinvestment, support profitability through cycles, and underpin sustainable free cash flow generation over months to years.
Negative Factors
Modest return on equity
ROE under 10% signals limited capital efficiency relative to the equity-heavy balance sheet. Even with strong margins, low ROE can constrain long-term shareholder returns and suggests management may need to improve asset productivity or consider targeted leverage to raise capital returns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong revenue and margins
Sustained double-digit revenue growth and high operating margins indicate durable product pricing power and efficient mine operations. These margins provide internal funding for reinvestment, support profitability through cycles, and underpin sustainable free cash flow generation over months to years.
Read all positive factors
Northern Star Resources Ltd (NST) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$31.61B
Dividend Yield2.04%
Average Volume (3M)5.84M
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.4
Beta (1Y)1.47
Revenue Growth30.35%
EPS Growth102.55%
CountryAU
Employees3,383
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryGold
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.53
Shares Outstanding1,431,123,500
10 Day Avg. Volume8,384,543
30 Day Avg. Volume5,844,041
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.16
Price to Book (P/B)1.49
Price to Sales (P/S)3.47
P/FCF Ratio33.89
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$27.87Price Target Upside26.11% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)1.22
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$7.70B
Northern Star Resources Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Northern Star Resources Limited engages in the exploration, development, mining, and processing of gold deposits in Australia. It also sells refined gold. The company holds interests in the Pogo, Kalgoorlie, KCGM, Jundee, Thunderbox, and Carosue D...
How the Company Makes Money
Northern Star primarily makes money by producing gold from its mining operations and selling that gold into the market at prevailing gold prices. Its core revenue stream is gold sales generated from (1) extracting ore from underground and open-pit...
Northern Star Resources Ltd Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 11, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 25, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mixed picture. Material operational setbacks in Q2 (crusher failure at KCGM, Jundee and Thunderbox disruptions, grade shortfalls) caused a downgrade to FY'26 production and drove higher near-term costs and incremental FY'26 capex to keep major projects on schedule. Offsetting these issues are a strong balance sheet (cash & bullion $1.18B, net cash $293M), robust H1 cash earnings and operating cash flow, record mining performance at KCGM, improvement in processing recovery (86%, +5ppt vs expectation) and clear project progress (KCGM mill expansion on track for early FY'27). Management emphasized the one-off nature of many issues and confidence in a stronger second half. Overall, positives (financial strength, project pipeline, recovery improvements and inventory of high-grade ore ready for processing) are balanced by significant operational execution risks and near-term upgrades to capex and schedules.Positive Updates
Balanced FY'26 Revised Guidance
Northern Star revised FY'26 gold sold guidance to 1.6 million–1.7 million ounces and all-in sustaining cost guidance narrowed to $2,600–$2,800/oz, with further detail provided by production center. Guidance incorporates known one-off events and the company expects a stronger second half.
Negative Updates
Softer Q2 Production and High AISC
Gold sold in the December quarter totaled 348,000 ounces at an all-in sustaining cost of AUD 2,937/oz — a softer operating quarter which prompted a downward revision to FY'26 production guidance.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Balanced FY'26 Revised Guidance
Northern Star revised FY'26 gold sold guidance to 1.6 million–1.7 million ounces and all-in sustaining cost guidance narrowed to $2,600–$2,800/oz, with further detail provided by production center. Guidance incorporates known one-off events and the company expects a stronger second half.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Northern Star revised FY‑26 guidance to 1.6–1.7 million ounces of gold sold at an AISC of $2,600–$2,800/oz (after reporting Dec‑quarter gold sold of 348,000 oz at AUD 2,937/oz), kept operational growth CapEx guidance at $1.14–$1.20 billion and detailed FY‑26 project spend including KCGM mill expansion $640–$660 million, KCGM tailings $240–$260 million (FY‑27 $100–$120 million), and Hemi $165–$175 million; operational highlights fueling the outlook included KCGM mining a record 207,000 oz in the quarter, finishing the quarter with 1.3 Mt @ 1.9 g/t and ~81,000 oz of high‑grade ore on the ROM pad, open‑pit material movement of ~22 million (Q2) and 45 million (H1) towards an 80–90 Mtpa annual range, >700,000 t crushed in 20 days (vs Dec month 600,000 t), processing availability YTD 92% and quarter recovery 86%, while the balance sheet shows cash and bullion $1.18 billion, net cash $293 million, H1 cash earnings ~$1.06–$1.11 billion, operating cash flow $738 million, 158,000 oz of hedge deliveries in the quarter and total commitments of 1.1 million oz at an average price just over $3,300/oz, with second‑half group cash tax guidance of $230–$270 million.Northern Star Resources Ltd Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
80
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 6.96B | 6.41B | 4.92B | 4.13B | 3.81B | 2.76B |
| Gross Profit | 2.59B | 3.63B | 1.16B | 577.90M | 529.90M | 564.40M |
| EBITDA | 3.90B | 3.43B | 2.17B | 1.97B | 1.78B | 2.27B |
| Net Income | 1.55B | 1.34B | 638.50M | 585.20M | 429.80M | 1.03B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 20.70B | 20.43B | 13.08B | 12.71B | 11.48B | 11.55B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 865.00M | 1.69B | 1.12B | 1.13B | 571.10M | 771.90M |
| Total Debt | 2.07B | 1.71B | 1.34B | 1.32B | 511.50M | 888.10M |
| Total Liabilities | 5.46B | 5.52B | 4.29B | 4.22B | 3.24B | 3.57B |
| Stockholders Equity | 15.24B | 14.92B | 8.79B | 8.48B | 8.25B | 7.98B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 446.10M | 657.00M | 565.90M | 292.30M | 570.50M | 383.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.73B | 2.95B | 2.07B | 1.35B | 1.63B | 1.08B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.87B | -1.53B | -1.50B | -1.04B | -913.20M | -257.10M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.02B | -965.60M | -577.60M | 245.70M | -927.40M | -718.60M |
Northern Star Resources Ltd Technical Analysis
Neutral
22.10
Price Trends
25.74
Negative
25.88
Negative
22.88
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.97
Negative
48.13
Neutral
85.05
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:NST, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 22.1 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.77, below the 50-day MA of 25.74, and below the 200-day MA of 22.88, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.97 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.13 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.05 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AU:NST.
Northern Star Resources Ltd Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | AU$27.72B | 8.35 | 25.07% | 1.53% | 35.31% | 115.08% | |
75 Outperform | AU$5.40B | 4.43 | 27.80% | 0.65% | 30.46% | ― | |
67 Neutral | AU$7.32B | 11.53 | 12.40% | 1.32% | 23.35% | 15.96% | |
67 Neutral | AU$5.94B | 7.97 | 12.35% | 0.46% | 89.86% | -81.65% | |
66 Neutral | AU$31.61B | 13.37 | 10.26% | 2.04% | 30.35% | 102.55% | |
66 Neutral | AU$7.42B | -160.00 | 9.94% | 1.92% | 36.34% | 110.55% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
AU:NST
Northern Star Resources Ltd
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Northern Star Resources Ltd Corporate Events
Northern Star CEO lifts indirect shareholding after incentive rights vest
Mar 30, 2026
Northern Star Resources has disclosed changes in Managing Director Stuart Tonkin’s security holdings following the exercise of long-term and short-term incentive performance rights. Tonkin converted 380,837 performance rights into ordinary f...
Northern Star Issues 380,837 New Shares on Option Conversion
Mar 30, 2026
Northern Star Resources has issued 380,837 new ordinary fully paid shares following the exercise or conversion of previously unquoted options or other convertible securities. The share issuance, effective 26 March 2026, marginally increases the co...
Northern Star to List 388,238 New Shares Under Distribution Plan
Mar 26, 2026
Northern Star Resources has applied to the ASX for quotation of 388,238 new fully paid ordinary shares, to be issued on 26 March 2026. The securities are being issued under a dividend or distribution plan, modestly increasing the company’s l...
Northern Star Flags FY26 Production Pressure but Prioritises FY27 Upside
Mar 12, 2026
Northern Star Resources has warned that meeting the lower end of its FY26 production guidance will be difficult after weaker milling performance at KCGM and reduced mining productivity at several sites, including Jundee, limited January–Febr...
Northern Star Joins S&P/ASX 20 as Index Rebalance Lifts Resources Stocks
Mar 6, 2026
Northern Star Resources is a leading Australian gold miner with a diversified portfolio of producing and development-stage assets, supplying gold to global markets and featuring prominently in the local resources investment universe. The company&#...
Northern Star updates resource context after De Grey acquisition
Feb 23, 2026
Northern Star Resources clarified that its previously reported group ore reserves and mineral resources as at 31 March 2025 did not include the Hemi Project acquired through the takeover of De Grey Mining in May 2025. The company noted that subseq...
MGX Completes $50m Acquisition of 50% Stake in High-Grade Central Tanami Gold Project
Feb 5, 2026
MGX Resources Limited has completed the acquisition of a 50% interest in the Central Tanami Gold Project Joint Venture in the Northern Territory from Northern Star Resources for $50 million, including assuming bank guarantees of about $5.8 million...
Northern Star Sets Date for FY26 Half-Year Results and Investor Call
Feb 3, 2026
Northern Star Resources will release its FY26 half-year financial results for the period ended 31 December 2025 before market open on the ASX on 12 February 2026. The company’s managing director, chief financial officer and chief operating o...
Northern Star Cuts FY26 Output Guidance After One-Off Disruptions but Sticks to Expansion Plans
Jan 21, 2026
Northern Star reported December-quarter gold sales of 348,061 ounces at an elevated all-in sustaining cost of A$2,937 per ounce, with group free cash flow negative and net mine cash at A$129 million. Performance was hit by one-off operational disr...
Northern Star Lifts FY26 Cost Guidance After Production Downgrade
Jan 19, 2026
Northern Star Resources has revised its FY26 all-in sustaining cost (AISC) guidance upward to A$2,600–A$2,800 per ounce from A$2,300–A$2,700 per ounce, following a previously announced downgrade to FY26 production guidance to 1,600R...
Northern Star Strengthens Governance with Joint Company Secretary Appointment
Jan 19, 2026
Northern Star Resources has appointed Joanne McDonald as Joint Company Secretary, effective 19 January 2026, in a move that strengthens its corporate governance and administrative capabilities. Existing Company Secretary and Chief Legal Officer Hi...
Northern Star Details Timing and Impact of Operational Setbacks in Response to ASX Query
Jan 8, 2026
Northern Star Resources has responded to an ASX query following its 2 January 2026 operational update, confirming that a downgrade to its production forecast and several operational issues are considered potentially material to its share price. Th...
Northern Star Performance Rights Lapse After Vesting Conditions Not Met
Jan 7, 2026
Northern Star Resources has notified the market that 138,237 performance rights, trading under the ASX code NSTAA, have lapsed after the conditions attached to those rights were not met or became incapable of being satisfied as of 31 December 2025...
Northern Star Issues 157,863 New Shares on Option Conversion
Jan 7, 2026
Northern Star Resources Ltd has issued 157,863 new fully paid ordinary shares following the exercise or conversion of previously unquoted options or other convertible securities. The issuance, effective 31 December 2025 and disclosed via an Append...
Northern Star Issues New Performance Rights Under Employee Incentive Scheme
Jan 7, 2026
Northern Star Resources has notified the market of the issue of 95,284 unquoted performance rights under its employee incentive scheme, with an issue date of 31 December 2025. The move reinforces the company’s use of equity-based incentives ...
Northern Star Sets Date for December Quarter Results and Investor Call
Jan 6, 2026
Northern Star Resources Ltd will release its quarterly results for the period ended 31 December 2025 before the ASX opens on 22 January 2026. The company’s managing director, chief financial officer and chief operating officer will host a co...
Northern Star trims FY26 gold output guidance after soft December quarter
Jan 1, 2026
Northern Star Resources has cut its FY26 production guidance to 1.6–1.7 million ounces of gold from 1.7–1.85 million ounces after a soft December quarter, when group sales fell to about 348,000 ounces, bringing first-half sales to roug...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.