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Northern Star Resources Ltd (AU:NST)
ASX:NST
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Northern Star Resources Ltd (NST) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:NST

Northern Star Resources Ltd

(Sydney:NST)

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Outperform 75 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
AU$22.50
▼(-9.16% Downside)
Northern Star Resources Ltd exhibits strong financial performance and technical momentum, which are the most significant factors driving the score. The valuation is reasonable, providing a balanced risk-reward profile. While the earnings call revealed some operational challenges, the company's strategic initiatives and robust financial health mitigate these concerns.

Northern Star Resources Ltd (NST) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Northern Star Resources Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNorthern Star Resources Ltd (NST) is a global-scale Australian gold producer and exploration company. It operates primarily in the mining sector, focusing on the acquisition, exploration, development, mining, and sale of gold deposits. The company has several operational sites across Australia and Alaska, with a strong emphasis on efficient production and sustainable practices.
How the Company Makes MoneyNorthern Star Resources Ltd generates revenue primarily through the extraction and sale of gold. The company owns and operates several high-grade, low-cost gold mines, enabling it to produce and sell gold at competitive prices. Its revenue model is heavily dependent on gold production volumes and market gold prices. Additionally, Northern Star engages in strategic exploration to identify and develop new gold resources, thereby increasing its production capacity and potential future earnings. The company also benefits from cost management strategies and economies of scale, contributing to its profitability. Significant partnerships with other mining companies and stakeholders further enhance its operational capabilities and financial performance.

Northern Star Resources Ltd Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 20, 2025
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 17, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted strong financial performance, record gold sales, and strategic acquisitions. However, challenges at KCGM and increased capital expenditures were notable concerns. Despite these challenges, the financial health and strategic progress of the company remain strong.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Gold Sold and Cash Flow
Northern Star sold 1.634 million ounces of gold for FY '25 at an all-in sustaining cost of AUD 2,163 per ounce, achieving record annual underlying free cash flow.
Strong Financial Position
The company's balance sheet remains robust with cash and bullion of $1.9 billion and a net cash position of $1 billion as of June 30, 2025.
Successful Acquisition and Project Advancements
Northern Star completed the acquisition of De Grey and is advancing the Hemi development project. The KCGM mill expansion project is progressing well and is on track.
Pogo's Record Performance
Pogo delivered a record quarterly performance, including 85,000 ounces of gold sold at USD 1,154 an ounce, contributing AUD 463 million in net mine cash flow for FY '25.
Negative Updates
Challenges at KCGM
The KCGM operation faced productivity and cost headwinds, failing to meet ambitious production targets. KCGM's mining efficiency was below expectations, and access to high-grade ore was delayed.
Increased Capital Expenditure
FY '26 sustaining capital has increased to AUD 750 million due to inflationary pressures, with a year-on-year increase of approximately $100 per ounce.
Delays in Meeting FY '26 Production Targets
Northern Star confirmed it will not reach its 2 million-ounce per annum group target in FY '26, primarily due to challenges at KCGM.
Company Guidance
During the June 2025 quarter, Northern Star sold 444,000 ounces of gold at an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of AUD 2,197 per ounce, meeting their revised guidance for the fiscal year 2025. The full fiscal year saw 1.634 million ounces sold at an AISC of AUD 2,163 per ounce, achieving record annual underlying free cash flow. However, challenges, particularly at KCGM, have led to a confirmation that the ambitious 2 million-ounce production target for fiscal year 2026 will not be met. Despite this, KCGM remains a cornerstone asset with a mine life exceeding 20 years, and its mill expansion project is well on track. Fiscal year 2026 guidance forecasts gold sales between 1.7 million to 1.85 million ounces, with AISC ranging from AUD 2,300 to AUD 2,700 per ounce. The company's balance sheet remains robust, with a net cash position of $1 billion as of June 30, 2025, and a formal decision to wind down its hedge book, aligning with confidence in their future outlook.

Northern Star Resources Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Northern Star Resources Ltd shows strong financial health with robust revenue and profit growth, efficient operational management, and prudent financial leverage. The balance sheet is stable with low debt levels, and cash flow generation is strong, supporting future growth and investment opportunities.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Northern Star Resources Ltd has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a 15.74% increase in the latest year, indicating robust demand for its products. The company maintains healthy profitability metrics, with a gross profit margin of 56.6% and a net profit margin of 20.88%, reflecting efficient cost management and strong pricing power. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also solid at 32.26% and 53.54%, respectively, showcasing operational efficiency. Overall, the income statement reflects a strong financial performance with positive growth trends.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The balance sheet of Northern Star Resources Ltd is stable, with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.11, indicating prudent financial leverage. The return on equity is modest at 8.98%, suggesting effective use of shareholder funds, though there is room for improvement. The equity ratio stands at 73.0%, highlighting a strong equity base relative to total assets, which provides financial stability. Overall, the balance sheet reflects a solid financial position with low leverage and a strong equity base.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
The cash flow statement shows a positive trajectory, with a 27.5% growth in free cash flow, indicating improved cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.81 suggests strong cash flow generation relative to reported earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 22.24% indicates a healthy conversion of earnings into cash. Overall, the cash flow statement reflects strong cash generation and effective cash management.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue6.41B6.41B4.92B4.13B3.81B2.76B
Gross Profit2.25B3.63B1.16B577.90M529.90M564.40M
EBITDA3.37B3.43B2.17B1.97B1.78B2.27B
Net Income1.34B1.34B638.50M585.20M429.80M1.03B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets20.43B20.43B13.08B12.71B11.48B11.55B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.69B1.69B1.12B1.13B571.10M771.90M
Total Debt1.71B1.71B1.34B1.32B511.50M888.10M
Total Liabilities5.52B5.52B4.29B4.22B3.24B3.57B
Stockholders Equity14.92B14.92B8.79B8.48B8.25B7.98B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow798.60M657.00M565.90M292.30M570.50M383.70M
Operating Cash Flow2.95B2.95B2.07B1.35B1.63B1.08B
Investing Cash Flow-1.53B-1.53B-1.50B-1.04B-913.20M-257.10M
Financing Cash Flow-965.60M-965.60M-577.60M245.70M-927.40M-718.60M

Northern Star Resources Ltd Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price24.77
Price Trends
50DMA
19.60
Positive
100DMA
19.13
Positive
200DMA
18.39
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
1.41
Negative
RSI
78.32
Negative
STOCH
89.37
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:NST, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 24.77 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.25, above the 50-day MA of 19.60, and above the 200-day MA of 18.39, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.41 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 78.32 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.37 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:NST.

Northern Star Resources Ltd Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
C$6.72B11.8421.17%1.51%23.35%15.96%
78
Outperform
$4.54B17.7916.68%0.83%30.46%
77
Outperform
$22.68B23.6119.86%1.78%35.31%115.08%
76
Outperform
AU$7.10B31.7819.70%109.79%158.18%
75
Outperform
$35.42B21.6711.04%2.22%30.35%102.55%
69
Neutral
AU$3.78B18.2716.83%24.12%46.42%99.69%
61
Neutral
$10.43B7.12-0.05%2.87%2.86%-36.73%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:NST
Northern Star Resources Ltd
24.79
9.21
59.07%
AU:PRU
Perseus Mining
4.97
2.48
99.68%
AU:EVN
Evolution Mining
11.25
6.81
153.15%
AU:GOR
Gold Road Resources Ltd
3.48
1.76
101.86%
AU:RRL
Regis Resources Limited
6.16
4.19
212.69%
AU:GMD
Genesis Minerals Limited
6.14
4.13
205.47%

Northern Star Resources Ltd Corporate Events

Northern Star Resources Confirms Stability in Gold Production Targets
Aug 3, 2025

Northern Star Resources Ltd has released an update on its Ore Reserves and Mineral Resources, confirming that there have been no material changes to the assumptions underpinning its production targets up to FY29, aside from normal mining depletion. The company maintains its current operational and cost structures, with production profiles based on JORC-compliant Ore Reserves, ensuring stability in its gold production outlook.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NST) stock is a Buy with a A$17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Star Resources Ltd stock, see the AU:NST Stock Forecast page.

Northern Star Resources Reports Record Cash Flow and Strategic Growth Plans
Jul 23, 2025

Northern Star Resources Ltd reported a record annual underlying free cash flow of A$536 million and net mine cash flow of A$1,189 million for FY25. The company achieved significant milestones, including gold sales of 1.63 million ounces and the advancement of the KCGM Mill Expansion Project. With a strong balance sheet and no new hedge commitments, Northern Star is well-positioned for future growth. The company’s FY26 outlook includes production guidance of 1,700-1,850koz gold sold and continued investments in growth and exploration, signaling confidence in its operational strategy and potential shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NST) stock is a Buy with a A$17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Star Resources Ltd stock, see the AU:NST Stock Forecast page.

Mount Gibson Iron Limited Acquires 50% Stake in Central Tanami Gold Project
Jul 15, 2025

Mount Gibson Iron Limited, a company listed on the ASX under the ticker MGX, has announced an agreement to acquire a 50% stake in the Central Tanami Gold Project. This strategic acquisition is expected to enhance MGX’s portfolio and strengthen its position in the mining industry, potentially offering new opportunities for growth and development.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NST) stock is a Buy with a A$17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Star Resources Ltd stock, see the AU:NST Stock Forecast page.

Mount Gibson Acquires Stake in Central Tanami Gold Project
Jul 15, 2025

Mount Gibson Iron Limited has entered into an agreement with Northern Star Resources Ltd to acquire a 50% interest in the Central Tanami Gold Project Joint Venture (CTPJV) and adjacent exploration tenements for $50 million. This acquisition provides Mount Gibson with a significant land position in a major gold-producing region, enhancing its development prospects. The CTPJV assets include substantial mineral resources and existing infrastructure, offering strong potential for resource expansion and accelerated project development. The acquisition is expected to position Mount Gibson for a potential development decision within the next 12-18 months, pending regulatory approvals and other conditions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NST) stock is a Buy with a A$17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Star Resources Ltd stock, see the AU:NST Stock Forecast page.

Northern Star Resources Achieves FY25 Guidance and Outlines Growth Plans for FY26
Jul 6, 2025

Northern Star Resources Ltd reported a strong performance in the June quarter, meeting its revised FY25 production guidance with 1,634koz of gold sold. The company is advancing major growth projects, including the KCGM Mill Expansion, to enhance its production capacity and maintain its position in the lower half of the global cost curve. For FY26, Northern Star forecasts gold sales of 1,700-1,850koz, with significant capital expenditure planned to support growth and operational readiness across its production centers. The company anticipates inflationary pressures and increased costs but remains focused on achieving long-term growth and value creation for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NST) stock is a Buy with a A$17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Star Resources Ltd stock, see the AU:NST Stock Forecast page.

Northern Star Resources Announces Cessation of Performance Rights
Jul 1, 2025

Northern Star Resources Ltd has announced the cessation of 182,484 performance rights due to the lapse of conditional rights, as the conditions were not met or became incapable of being satisfied. This cessation could impact the company’s capital structure and may influence investor perceptions regarding the company’s performance and future growth prospects.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NST) stock is a Buy with a A$17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Star Resources Ltd stock, see the AU:NST Stock Forecast page.

Northern Star Resources to Announce June 2025 Quarterly Results
Jul 1, 2025

Northern Star Resources Ltd is set to release its quarterly results for the period ended 30 June 2025 on 24 July 2025. The announcement will be accompanied by a conference call hosted by key executives to discuss the results, which is significant for stakeholders interested in the company’s operational and financial performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NST) stock is a Buy with a A$17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Star Resources Ltd stock, see the AU:NST Stock Forecast page.

Northern Star Completes Acquisition of De Grey Mining with ATO Class Ruling
Jun 18, 2025

Northern Star Resources Ltd has successfully acquired 100% of the ordinary shares in De Grey Mining Ltd through a Scheme of Arrangement, with the Australian Taxation Office issuing a Class Ruling on the tax implications for shareholders involved. This ruling provides clarity on the income tax and capital gains tax considerations for De Grey shareholders who exchanged their shares for Northern Star shares, potentially impacting their financial and tax planning strategies.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NST) stock is a Buy with a A$18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Star Resources Ltd stock, see the AU:NST Stock Forecast page.

Northern Star Resources Announces Director’s Change in Securities Interests
May 26, 2025

Northern Star Resources Ltd has announced a change in the interests of its director, Stuart Peter Tonkin, involving the exercise of 100,000 performance rights into shares and the on-market sale of 200,000 shares. This transaction, aimed at meeting future tax obligations, reflects the company’s ongoing adjustments in its executive holdings, potentially impacting its stock market dynamics and shareholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NST) stock is a Buy with a A$18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Star Resources Ltd stock, see the AU:NST Stock Forecast page.

Northern Star Resources Announces Cessation of Securities
May 23, 2025

Northern Star Resources Ltd announced the cessation of 1,898,467 ordinary fully paid securities due to an on-market buy-back, effective May 21, 2025. This move is part of the company’s capital management strategy, potentially impacting its share value and signaling confidence in its financial stability to stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NST) stock is a Buy with a A$15.90 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Star Resources Ltd stock, see the AU:NST Stock Forecast page.

Northern Star Resources Completes Significant Share Buy-Back
May 15, 2025

Northern Star Resources Ltd has announced the final notification of its on-market buy-back program, where it has repurchased a total of 27,172,098 ordinary fully paid securities at a total consideration of AUD 299,999,988. This buy-back is part of the company’s strategy to enhance shareholder value and optimize its capital structure, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder interests positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NST) stock is a Buy with a A$18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Star Resources Ltd stock, see the AU:NST Stock Forecast page.

Northern Star Resources Ltd Updates on Buy-Back Program
May 15, 2025

Northern Star Resources Ltd has announced an update regarding its ongoing on-market buy-back program. As of the latest update, the company has repurchased a total of 26,473,627 ordinary fully paid securities, with an additional 698,471 securities bought back on the previous day. This buy-back initiative reflects the company’s strategy to manage its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NST) stock is a Buy with a A$18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Star Resources Ltd stock, see the AU:NST Stock Forecast page.

Northern Star Resources Boosts Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves
May 14, 2025

Northern Star Resources Ltd has reported a substantial increase in its Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves for the year ending March 31, 2025. The company’s Mineral Resources have risen to 70.7 million ounces, and Ore Reserves have increased to 22.3 million ounces, driven by successful exploration efforts, particularly at the Kalgoorlie and Jundee sites. The update highlights the company’s ability to enhance its gold inventory and extend mine life, positioning it strongly within the industry. However, the Hemi Project, acquired from De Grey Mining Ltd, is not yet included in these figures, indicating potential future growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NST) stock is a Buy with a A$18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Star Resources Ltd stock, see the AU:NST Stock Forecast page.

Northern Star Resources Ltd Updates on Buy-Back Program
May 13, 2025

Northern Star Resources Ltd has announced an update regarding its ongoing buy-back program, revealing that a total of 25,273,631 ordinary fully paid securities have been bought back prior to the previous day, with an additional 326,573 securities acquired on the previous day. This buy-back initiative is part of the company’s strategy to manage its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value, reflecting its proactive approach in maintaining a strong market position.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NST) stock is a Buy with a A$18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Star Resources Ltd stock, see the AU:NST Stock Forecast page.

Northern Star Resources Updates On-Market Buy-Back Program
May 13, 2025

Northern Star Resources Ltd has announced an update regarding its on-market buy-back program for ordinary fully paid securities. The update includes changes to the total number of securities available for buy-back, reflecting the company’s ongoing efforts to manage its capital structure and enhance shareholder value. This move is part of Northern Star’s broader strategy to optimize its financial operations and strengthen its position within the competitive gold mining industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NST) stock is a Buy with a A$18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Star Resources Ltd stock, see the AU:NST Stock Forecast page.

Director’s Change in Shareholding at Northern Star Resources
May 8, 2025

Northern Star Resources Ltd has announced a change in the interests of its director, John Daniel Fitzgerald, who has disposed of a total of 23,198 ordinary fully paid shares through on-market trades. This change in director’s interest may indicate strategic financial adjustments or personal financial planning by the director, potentially impacting stakeholder perceptions and the company’s stock market performance.

Northern Star Resources Announces Change in Substantial Holder Interests
May 8, 2025

Northern Star Resources Ltd has announced a change in the interests of a substantial holder, as detailed in their latest notice. This change involves various entities, such as State Street Global Advisors and others, which now hold significant voting power in the company. The announcement highlights the shifting landscape of shareholder influence, potentially impacting the company’s governance and strategic decisions.

Northern Star Completes Acquisition of De Grey Mining
May 5, 2025

Northern Star Resources Ltd has successfully completed the acquisition of De Grey Mining Ltd through a Court-approved Scheme of Arrangement. This strategic move aligns with Northern Star’s goal to enhance its asset portfolio by integrating the Hemi gold project, expected to be a low-cost, long-life, large-scale gold mine. The acquisition is anticipated to bolster Northern Star’s market position and generate cash earnings, while fostering relationships with stakeholders in the Hemi project area.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Sep 04, 2025