tiprankstipranks
Trending News
More News >
Northern Star Resources Ltd (AU:NST)
ASX:NST
Advertisement

Northern Star Resources Ltd (NST) AI Stock Analysis

Compare
194 Followers

Top Page

AU:NST

Northern Star Resources Ltd

(Sydney:NST)

Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
AU$18.00
▲(11.39%Upside)
Northern Star Resources Ltd benefits from strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment, reflecting robust operational capabilities and strategic growth initiatives. However, technical analysis indicates bearish market momentum, and a relatively high P/E ratio suggests limited valuation upside. Despite some challenges, the company's financial stability and growth potential support a solid overall stock score.

Northern Star Resources Ltd (NST) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Northern Star Resources Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNorthern Star Resources Ltd (NST) is a global-scale Australian gold producer and exploration company. It operates primarily in the mining sector, focusing on the acquisition, exploration, development, mining, and sale of gold deposits. The company has several operational sites across Australia and Alaska, with a strong emphasis on efficient production and sustainable practices.
How the Company Makes MoneyNorthern Star Resources Ltd generates revenue primarily through the extraction and sale of gold. The company owns and operates several high-grade, low-cost gold mines, enabling it to produce and sell gold at competitive prices. Its revenue model is heavily dependent on gold production volumes and market gold prices. Additionally, Northern Star engages in strategic exploration to identify and develop new gold resources, thereby increasing its production capacity and potential future earnings. The company also benefits from cost management strategies and economies of scale, contributing to its profitability. Significant partnerships with other mining companies and stakeholders further enhance its operational capabilities and financial performance.

Northern Star Resources Ltd Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 12, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: -10.42%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 21, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a strong operational and financial performance with strategic growth initiatives underway. However, some challenges such as weather impacts and equipment downtime affected certain operations, and free cash flow was not as high as anticipated. Overall, the sentiment is positive due to the company's robust financial position and successful project completions.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Increased Gold Sales and Cost Management
Northern Star sold 410,000 ounces of gold at an all-in sustaining cost of A$2,128 per ounce, with a focus on operational performance, cost control, and capital discipline.
Strong Financial Position
The company is in a net cash position with A$1.2 billion in cash and bullion, demonstrating strong cash earnings of A$1.13 billion to A$1.17 billion in the first half of FY '25.
Successful Projects and Developments
Completion of the East Wall remediation at KCGM, commissioning of the renewables energy project at Jundee, and the start of new portals for higher-margin underground ounces.
Pogo Mill and Mine Performance
The Pogo operation delivered 71,000 ounces for the quarter with the mill operating at a run rate annualized of 1.5 million tonnes per annum.
Negative Updates
Weather Impact on KCGM
Weather conditions affected operations at KCGM, impacting ore availability and causing a need for rescheduling.
Free Cash Flow Below Expectations
Free cash flow was weaker than expected at A$72 million, attributed to first-half heavy capital expenditure and growth projects.
Lower Equipment and Heading Availability at Jundee
Operational challenges at Jundee due to equipment downtime and focus on larger development reduced production areas in the short-term.
Company Guidance
During the Northern Star December 2024 Quarterly Results call, CEO Stuart Tonkin highlighted several key metrics demonstrating the company's robust performance and strategic initiatives. Northern Star sold 410,000 ounces of gold at an all-in sustaining cost of A$2,128 per ounce, with a net cash position of A$265 million at the end of the quarter. The company generated A$692 million in operating cash flow, a significant 18% increase from the previous quarter, and maintained a strong cash and bullion balance of A$1.2 billion. The Kalgoorlie Production Centre alone sold 208,000 ounces and generated A$358 million in mine operating cash flow. Capital expenditures were substantial, with A$308 million spent on growth projects, including A$139 million on the KCGM mill expansion. The Pogo operation in Alaska also performed well, delivering 71,000 ounces for the quarter. Looking ahead, Northern Star expects a stronger second half, with the Pogo plant targeting a throughput of 4 million tonnes per annum. The company remains committed to delivering shareholder value through strategic growth, operational excellence, and maintaining a strong financial position.

Northern Star Resources Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Northern Star Resources Ltd exhibits strong financial health with impressive revenue and profit growth. The company shows efficient operations and solid cash flow generation, maintaining a low leverage position for stability. Despite an increase in liabilities, the balance sheet remains robust, positioning the company well for future growth in the gold industry.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Northern Star Resources Ltd has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a significant increase from $4.13 billion in 2023 to $4.92 billion in 2024, indicating healthy expansion in operations. The gross profit margin improved to 24.28%, showcasing efficient cost management. The net profit margin at 12.97% reflects solid profitability. Both EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust, at 20.93% and 44.17% respectively, further highlighting good operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
The balance sheet shows a strong equity base with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.15, indicating low leverage and financial stability. Return on equity is healthy at 7.26%, reflecting effective utilization of shareholders' equity. The equity ratio is 67.23%, suggesting a strong capital structure. However, the increase in total liabilities could be a potential risk if not managed carefully.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Cash flow analysis reveals a significant increase in operating cash flow, up to $2.07 billion, indicating strong cash generation capabilities. Free cash flow has increased to $565.9 million, reflecting prudent capital expenditure management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 3.24, suggesting efficient conversion of income into cash flow, which supports liquidity and financial flexibility.
BreakdownJun 2024Jun 2023Jun 2022Jun 2021Jun 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue4.92B4.13B3.81B2.76B1.97B
Gross Profit1.16B577.90M529.90M564.40M512.32M
EBITDA2.17B1.97B1.78B2.27B724.99M
Net Income638.50M585.20M429.80M1.03B258.33M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets13.08B12.71B11.48B11.55B3.97B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.12B1.13B571.10M771.90M677.26M
Total Debt1.34B1.32B511.50M888.10M811.06M
Total Liabilities4.29B4.22B3.24B3.57B1.83B
Stockholders Equity8.79B8.48B8.25B7.98B2.14B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow565.90M292.30M570.50M383.70M347.76M
Operating Cash Flow2.07B1.35B1.63B1.08B710.44M
Investing Cash Flow-1.50B-1.04B-913.20M-257.10M-1.67B
Financing Cash Flow-577.60M245.70M-927.40M-718.60M1.38B

Northern Star Resources Ltd Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price16.16
Price Trends
50DMA
18.58
Negative
100DMA
18.91
Negative
200DMA
17.86
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.75
Negative
RSI
41.44
Neutral
STOCH
18.64
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:NST, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 16.16 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.25, below the 50-day MA of 18.58, and below the 200-day MA of 17.86, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.75 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 41.44 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.64 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:NST.

Northern Star Resources Ltd Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
75
Outperform
$14.12B20.2916.97%1.70%60.56%302.20%
73
Outperform
C$4.41B8.2822.80%1.92%12.24%14.88%
71
Outperform
$21.84B18.5211.01%3.27%25.11%28.88%
70
Outperform
AU$4.09B31.8713.01%125.45%
69
Neutral
$3.40B23.7513.42%0.64%11.93%22.74%
65
Neutral
$3.04B-0.38%29.83%93.23%
61
Neutral
$9.46B8.051.46%3.14%2.52%-54.55%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:NST
Northern Star Resources Ltd
16.16
2.41
17.56%
AU:RRL
Regis Resources Limited
4.13
2.55
160.57%
AU:EVN
Evolution Mining
7.23
3.44
90.71%
AU:PRU
Perseus Mining
3.35
0.98
41.17%
AU:GOR
Gold Road Resources Ltd
3.19
1.54
92.75%
AU:GMD
Genesis Minerals Limited
3.76
1.74
86.14%

Northern Star Resources Ltd Corporate Events

Northern Star Resources Confirms Stability in Gold Production Targets
Aug 3, 2025

Northern Star Resources Ltd has released an update on its Ore Reserves and Mineral Resources, confirming that there have been no material changes to the assumptions underpinning its production targets up to FY29, aside from normal mining depletion. The company maintains its current operational and cost structures, with production profiles based on JORC-compliant Ore Reserves, ensuring stability in its gold production outlook.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NST) stock is a Buy with a A$17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Star Resources Ltd stock, see the AU:NST Stock Forecast page.

Northern Star Resources Reports Record Cash Flow and Strategic Growth Plans
Jul 23, 2025

Northern Star Resources Ltd reported a record annual underlying free cash flow of A$536 million and net mine cash flow of A$1,189 million for FY25. The company achieved significant milestones, including gold sales of 1.63 million ounces and the advancement of the KCGM Mill Expansion Project. With a strong balance sheet and no new hedge commitments, Northern Star is well-positioned for future growth. The company’s FY26 outlook includes production guidance of 1,700-1,850koz gold sold and continued investments in growth and exploration, signaling confidence in its operational strategy and potential shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NST) stock is a Buy with a A$17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Star Resources Ltd stock, see the AU:NST Stock Forecast page.

Mount Gibson Iron Limited Acquires 50% Stake in Central Tanami Gold Project
Jul 15, 2025

Mount Gibson Iron Limited, a company listed on the ASX under the ticker MGX, has announced an agreement to acquire a 50% stake in the Central Tanami Gold Project. This strategic acquisition is expected to enhance MGX’s portfolio and strengthen its position in the mining industry, potentially offering new opportunities for growth and development.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NST) stock is a Buy with a A$17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Star Resources Ltd stock, see the AU:NST Stock Forecast page.

Mount Gibson Acquires Stake in Central Tanami Gold Project
Jul 15, 2025

Mount Gibson Iron Limited has entered into an agreement with Northern Star Resources Ltd to acquire a 50% interest in the Central Tanami Gold Project Joint Venture (CTPJV) and adjacent exploration tenements for $50 million. This acquisition provides Mount Gibson with a significant land position in a major gold-producing region, enhancing its development prospects. The CTPJV assets include substantial mineral resources and existing infrastructure, offering strong potential for resource expansion and accelerated project development. The acquisition is expected to position Mount Gibson for a potential development decision within the next 12-18 months, pending regulatory approvals and other conditions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NST) stock is a Buy with a A$17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Star Resources Ltd stock, see the AU:NST Stock Forecast page.

Northern Star Resources Achieves FY25 Guidance and Outlines Growth Plans for FY26
Jul 6, 2025

Northern Star Resources Ltd reported a strong performance in the June quarter, meeting its revised FY25 production guidance with 1,634koz of gold sold. The company is advancing major growth projects, including the KCGM Mill Expansion, to enhance its production capacity and maintain its position in the lower half of the global cost curve. For FY26, Northern Star forecasts gold sales of 1,700-1,850koz, with significant capital expenditure planned to support growth and operational readiness across its production centers. The company anticipates inflationary pressures and increased costs but remains focused on achieving long-term growth and value creation for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NST) stock is a Buy with a A$17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Star Resources Ltd stock, see the AU:NST Stock Forecast page.

Northern Star Resources Announces Cessation of Performance Rights
Jul 1, 2025

Northern Star Resources Ltd has announced the cessation of 182,484 performance rights due to the lapse of conditional rights, as the conditions were not met or became incapable of being satisfied. This cessation could impact the company’s capital structure and may influence investor perceptions regarding the company’s performance and future growth prospects.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NST) stock is a Buy with a A$17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Star Resources Ltd stock, see the AU:NST Stock Forecast page.

Northern Star Resources to Announce June 2025 Quarterly Results
Jul 1, 2025

Northern Star Resources Ltd is set to release its quarterly results for the period ended 30 June 2025 on 24 July 2025. The announcement will be accompanied by a conference call hosted by key executives to discuss the results, which is significant for stakeholders interested in the company’s operational and financial performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NST) stock is a Buy with a A$17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Star Resources Ltd stock, see the AU:NST Stock Forecast page.

Northern Star Completes Acquisition of De Grey Mining with ATO Class Ruling
Jun 18, 2025

Northern Star Resources Ltd has successfully acquired 100% of the ordinary shares in De Grey Mining Ltd through a Scheme of Arrangement, with the Australian Taxation Office issuing a Class Ruling on the tax implications for shareholders involved. This ruling provides clarity on the income tax and capital gains tax considerations for De Grey shareholders who exchanged their shares for Northern Star shares, potentially impacting their financial and tax planning strategies.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NST) stock is a Buy with a A$18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Star Resources Ltd stock, see the AU:NST Stock Forecast page.

Northern Star Resources Announces Director’s Change in Securities Interests
May 26, 2025

Northern Star Resources Ltd has announced a change in the interests of its director, Stuart Peter Tonkin, involving the exercise of 100,000 performance rights into shares and the on-market sale of 200,000 shares. This transaction, aimed at meeting future tax obligations, reflects the company’s ongoing adjustments in its executive holdings, potentially impacting its stock market dynamics and shareholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NST) stock is a Buy with a A$18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Star Resources Ltd stock, see the AU:NST Stock Forecast page.

Northern Star Resources Announces Cessation of Securities
May 23, 2025

Northern Star Resources Ltd announced the cessation of 1,898,467 ordinary fully paid securities due to an on-market buy-back, effective May 21, 2025. This move is part of the company’s capital management strategy, potentially impacting its share value and signaling confidence in its financial stability to stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NST) stock is a Buy with a A$15.90 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Star Resources Ltd stock, see the AU:NST Stock Forecast page.

Northern Star Resources Completes Significant Share Buy-Back
May 15, 2025

Northern Star Resources Ltd has announced the final notification of its on-market buy-back program, where it has repurchased a total of 27,172,098 ordinary fully paid securities at a total consideration of AUD 299,999,988. This buy-back is part of the company’s strategy to enhance shareholder value and optimize its capital structure, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder interests positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NST) stock is a Buy with a A$18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Star Resources Ltd stock, see the AU:NST Stock Forecast page.

Northern Star Resources Ltd Updates on Buy-Back Program
May 15, 2025

Northern Star Resources Ltd has announced an update regarding its ongoing on-market buy-back program. As of the latest update, the company has repurchased a total of 26,473,627 ordinary fully paid securities, with an additional 698,471 securities bought back on the previous day. This buy-back initiative reflects the company’s strategy to manage its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NST) stock is a Buy with a A$18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Star Resources Ltd stock, see the AU:NST Stock Forecast page.

Northern Star Resources Boosts Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves
May 14, 2025

Northern Star Resources Ltd has reported a substantial increase in its Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves for the year ending March 31, 2025. The company’s Mineral Resources have risen to 70.7 million ounces, and Ore Reserves have increased to 22.3 million ounces, driven by successful exploration efforts, particularly at the Kalgoorlie and Jundee sites. The update highlights the company’s ability to enhance its gold inventory and extend mine life, positioning it strongly within the industry. However, the Hemi Project, acquired from De Grey Mining Ltd, is not yet included in these figures, indicating potential future growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NST) stock is a Buy with a A$18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Star Resources Ltd stock, see the AU:NST Stock Forecast page.

Northern Star Resources Ltd Updates on Buy-Back Program
May 13, 2025

Northern Star Resources Ltd has announced an update regarding its ongoing buy-back program, revealing that a total of 25,273,631 ordinary fully paid securities have been bought back prior to the previous day, with an additional 326,573 securities acquired on the previous day. This buy-back initiative is part of the company’s strategy to manage its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value, reflecting its proactive approach in maintaining a strong market position.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NST) stock is a Buy with a A$18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Star Resources Ltd stock, see the AU:NST Stock Forecast page.

Northern Star Resources Updates On-Market Buy-Back Program
May 13, 2025

Northern Star Resources Ltd has announced an update regarding its on-market buy-back program for ordinary fully paid securities. The update includes changes to the total number of securities available for buy-back, reflecting the company’s ongoing efforts to manage its capital structure and enhance shareholder value. This move is part of Northern Star’s broader strategy to optimize its financial operations and strengthen its position within the competitive gold mining industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NST) stock is a Buy with a A$18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Star Resources Ltd stock, see the AU:NST Stock Forecast page.

Director’s Change in Shareholding at Northern Star Resources
May 8, 2025

Northern Star Resources Ltd has announced a change in the interests of its director, John Daniel Fitzgerald, who has disposed of a total of 23,198 ordinary fully paid shares through on-market trades. This change in director’s interest may indicate strategic financial adjustments or personal financial planning by the director, potentially impacting stakeholder perceptions and the company’s stock market performance.

Northern Star Resources Announces Change in Substantial Holder Interests
May 8, 2025

Northern Star Resources Ltd has announced a change in the interests of a substantial holder, as detailed in their latest notice. This change involves various entities, such as State Street Global Advisors and others, which now hold significant voting power in the company. The announcement highlights the shifting landscape of shareholder influence, potentially impacting the company’s governance and strategic decisions.

Northern Star Completes Acquisition of De Grey Mining
May 5, 2025

Northern Star Resources Ltd has successfully completed the acquisition of De Grey Mining Ltd through a Court-approved Scheme of Arrangement. This strategic move aligns with Northern Star’s goal to enhance its asset portfolio by integrating the Hemi gold project, expected to be a low-cost, long-life, large-scale gold mine. The acquisition is anticipated to bolster Northern Star’s market position and generate cash earnings, while fostering relationships with stakeholders in the Hemi project area.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 10, 2025