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Northern Star Resources Ltd (AU:NST)
ASX:NST

Northern Star Resources Ltd (NST) AI Stock Analysis

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AU

Northern Star Resources Ltd

(Sydney:NST)

Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
Northern Star Resources Ltd demonstrates solid financial performance with strong revenue and profit growth, efficient operations, and robust cash flow generation. The technical analysis shows positive momentum, although caution is advised as the stock approaches overbought territory. The valuation indicates a slightly overvalued position, but the dividend yield provides some investor appeal. The positive sentiment from the earnings call, highlighting strategic growth initiatives and a strong financial position, supports a favorable outlook.

Northern Star Resources Ltd (NST) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Northern Star Resources Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNorthern Star Resources Limited engages in the exploration, development, mining, and processing of gold deposits in Australia. It also sells refined gold. The company holds interests in the Pogo, Kalgoorlie, KCGM, Jundee, Thunderbox, and Carosue Dam operations, as well as Bronzewing projects. It operates in Western Australia, the Northern Territory, and Alaska. The company was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Subiaco, Australia.
How the Company Makes MoneyNorthern Star Resources Ltd makes money primarily through the exploration, mining, and sale of gold. Its revenue model is centered around the extraction of gold from its mining operations, which are then processed and sold in the global commodities market. The key revenue streams include the sale of gold bullion and, to a lesser extent, by-products such as silver and copper that are extracted during the mining process. Significant factors contributing to its earnings include the efficiency of mining operations, the market price of gold, and the company's ability to manage production costs. Northern Star Resources also engages in strategic partnerships and joint ventures to enhance its exploration opportunities, increase its resource base, and optimize its production capabilities, all of which contribute to its financial performance.

Northern Star Resources Ltd Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 12, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: 12.98%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 21, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a strong operational and financial performance with strategic growth initiatives underway. However, some challenges such as weather impacts and equipment downtime affected certain operations, and free cash flow was not as high as anticipated. Overall, the sentiment is positive due to the company's robust financial position and successful project completions.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Increased Gold Sales and Cost Management
Northern Star sold 410,000 ounces of gold at an all-in sustaining cost of A$2,128 per ounce, with a focus on operational performance, cost control, and capital discipline.
Strong Financial Position
The company is in a net cash position with A$1.2 billion in cash and bullion, demonstrating strong cash earnings of A$1.13 billion to A$1.17 billion in the first half of FY '25.
Successful Projects and Developments
Completion of the East Wall remediation at KCGM, commissioning of the renewables energy project at Jundee, and the start of new portals for higher-margin underground ounces.
Pogo Mill and Mine Performance
The Pogo operation delivered 71,000 ounces for the quarter with the mill operating at a run rate annualized of 1.5 million tonnes per annum.
Negative Updates
Weather Impact on KCGM
Weather conditions affected operations at KCGM, impacting ore availability and causing a need for rescheduling.
Free Cash Flow Below Expectations
Free cash flow was weaker than expected at A$72 million, attributed to first-half heavy capital expenditure and growth projects.
Lower Equipment and Heading Availability at Jundee
Operational challenges at Jundee due to equipment downtime and focus on larger development reduced production areas in the short-term.
Company Guidance
During the Northern Star December 2024 Quarterly Results call, CEO Stuart Tonkin highlighted several key metrics demonstrating the company's robust performance and strategic initiatives. Northern Star sold 410,000 ounces of gold at an all-in sustaining cost of A$2,128 per ounce, with a net cash position of A$265 million at the end of the quarter. The company generated A$692 million in operating cash flow, a significant 18% increase from the previous quarter, and maintained a strong cash and bullion balance of A$1.2 billion. The Kalgoorlie Production Centre alone sold 208,000 ounces and generated A$358 million in mine operating cash flow. Capital expenditures were substantial, with A$308 million spent on growth projects, including A$139 million on the KCGM mill expansion. The Pogo operation in Alaska also performed well, delivering 71,000 ounces for the quarter. Looking ahead, Northern Star expects a stronger second half, with the Pogo plant targeting a throughput of 4 million tonnes per annum. The company remains committed to delivering shareholder value through strategic growth, operational excellence, and maintaining a strong financial position.

Northern Star Resources Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Northern Star Resources Ltd presents a strong financial profile with impressive revenue and profit growth, efficient operations, and solid cash flow generation. The company maintains a low leverage position, ensuring stability and reduced financial risk. While liabilities have increased, the overall balance sheet remains robust. The company's financial health is well-positioned for future growth in the gold industry.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Northern Star Resources Ltd has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a significant increase from $4.13 billion in 2023 to $4.92 billion in 2024, indicating healthy expansion in operations. The gross profit margin improved to 24.28%, showcasing efficient cost management. The net profit margin at 12.97% reflects solid profitability. Both EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust, at 20.93% and 44.17% respectively, further highlighting good operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
The balance sheet shows a strong equity base with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.15, indicating low leverage and financial stability. Return on equity is healthy at 7.26%, reflecting effective utilization of shareholders' equity. The equity ratio is 67.23%, suggesting a strong capital structure. However, the increase in total liabilities could be a potential risk if not managed carefully.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Cash flow analysis reveals a significant increase in operating cash flow, up to $2.07 billion, indicating strong cash generation capabilities. Free cash flow has increased to $565.9 million, reflecting prudent capital expenditure management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 3.24, suggesting efficient conversion of income into cash flow, which supports liquidity and financial flexibility.
Breakdown
TTMJun 2024Jun 2023Jun 2022Jun 2021Jun 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
5.54B4.92B4.13B3.81B2.76B1.97B
Gross Profit
1.66B1.16B577.90M529.90M564.40M512.32M
EBIT
1.51B1.03B889.60M420.00M474.00M438.10M
EBITDA
2.62B2.17B1.97B1.78B2.27B724.99M
Net Income Common Stockholders
946.40M638.50M585.20M429.80M1.03B258.33M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
1.05B1.12B1.13B571.10M771.90M677.26M
Total Assets
13.79B13.08B12.71B11.48B11.55B3.97B
Total Debt
1.64B1.34B1.32B511.50M888.10M811.06M
Net Debt
595.00M224.70M188.80M-59.60M116.20M133.80M
Total Liabilities
4.85B4.29B4.22B3.24B3.57B1.83B
Stockholders Equity
8.95B8.79B8.48B8.25B7.98B2.14B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
655.20M565.90M292.30M570.50M383.70M347.76M
Operating Cash Flow
2.48B2.07B1.35B1.63B1.08B710.44M
Investing Cash Flow
-1.64B-1.50B-1.04B-913.20M-257.10M-1.67B
Financing Cash Flow
-775.10M-577.60M245.70M-927.40M-718.60M1.38B

Northern Star Resources Ltd Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price20.38
Price Trends
50DMA
20.30
Positive
100DMA
18.96
Positive
200DMA
17.57
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.30
Positive
RSI
48.38
Neutral
STOCH
10.76
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:NST, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 20.38 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.89, above the 50-day MA of 20.30, and above the 200-day MA of 17.57, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.30 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.38 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.76 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:NST.

Northern Star Resources Ltd Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
AUNST
78
Outperform
$29.97B25.4111.01%2.43%25.11%28.88%
51
Neutral
$2.01B-1.27-21.11%5.15%2.92%-30.46%
TSPRU
C$4.47B9.0222.80%1.41%
$10.50B23.9516.97%1.60%
$2.36B28.3113.42%0.77%
$2.28B-0.38%
AUGMD
76
Outperform
AU$5.12B39.7013.01%125.45%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:NST
Northern Star Resources Ltd
20.38
7.34
56.31%
TSE:PRU
Perseus Mining
3.19
1.09
51.90%
CAHPF
Evolution Mining
5.49
3.17
136.64%
ELKMF
Gold Road Resources Ltd
2.46
1.38
127.78%
RGRNF
Regis Resources Limited
3.18
1.96
160.66%
AU:GMD
Genesis Minerals Limited
4.51
2.68
146.45%

Northern Star Resources Ltd Corporate Events

Northern Star Completes Acquisition of De Grey Mining with ATO Class Ruling
Jun 18, 2025

Northern Star Resources Ltd has successfully acquired 100% of the ordinary shares in De Grey Mining Ltd through a Scheme of Arrangement, with the Australian Taxation Office issuing a Class Ruling on the tax implications for shareholders involved. This ruling provides clarity on the income tax and capital gains tax considerations for De Grey shareholders who exchanged their shares for Northern Star shares, potentially impacting their financial and tax planning strategies.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NST) stock is a Buy with a A$18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Star Resources Ltd stock, see the AU:NST Stock Forecast page.

Northern Star Resources Announces Director’s Change in Securities Interests
May 26, 2025

Northern Star Resources Ltd has announced a change in the interests of its director, Stuart Peter Tonkin, involving the exercise of 100,000 performance rights into shares and the on-market sale of 200,000 shares. This transaction, aimed at meeting future tax obligations, reflects the company’s ongoing adjustments in its executive holdings, potentially impacting its stock market dynamics and shareholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NST) stock is a Buy with a A$18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Star Resources Ltd stock, see the AU:NST Stock Forecast page.

Northern Star Resources Announces Cessation of Securities
May 23, 2025

Northern Star Resources Ltd announced the cessation of 1,898,467 ordinary fully paid securities due to an on-market buy-back, effective May 21, 2025. This move is part of the company’s capital management strategy, potentially impacting its share value and signaling confidence in its financial stability to stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NST) stock is a Buy with a A$15.90 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Star Resources Ltd stock, see the AU:NST Stock Forecast page.

Northern Star Resources Completes Significant Share Buy-Back
May 15, 2025

Northern Star Resources Ltd has announced the final notification of its on-market buy-back program, where it has repurchased a total of 27,172,098 ordinary fully paid securities at a total consideration of AUD 299,999,988. This buy-back is part of the company’s strategy to enhance shareholder value and optimize its capital structure, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder interests positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NST) stock is a Buy with a A$18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Star Resources Ltd stock, see the AU:NST Stock Forecast page.

Northern Star Resources Ltd Updates on Buy-Back Program
May 15, 2025

Northern Star Resources Ltd has announced an update regarding its ongoing on-market buy-back program. As of the latest update, the company has repurchased a total of 26,473,627 ordinary fully paid securities, with an additional 698,471 securities bought back on the previous day. This buy-back initiative reflects the company’s strategy to manage its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NST) stock is a Buy with a A$18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Star Resources Ltd stock, see the AU:NST Stock Forecast page.

Northern Star Resources Boosts Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves
May 14, 2025

Northern Star Resources Ltd has reported a substantial increase in its Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves for the year ending March 31, 2025. The company’s Mineral Resources have risen to 70.7 million ounces, and Ore Reserves have increased to 22.3 million ounces, driven by successful exploration efforts, particularly at the Kalgoorlie and Jundee sites. The update highlights the company’s ability to enhance its gold inventory and extend mine life, positioning it strongly within the industry. However, the Hemi Project, acquired from De Grey Mining Ltd, is not yet included in these figures, indicating potential future growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NST) stock is a Buy with a A$18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Star Resources Ltd stock, see the AU:NST Stock Forecast page.

Northern Star Resources Ltd Updates on Buy-Back Program
May 13, 2025

Northern Star Resources Ltd has announced an update regarding its ongoing buy-back program, revealing that a total of 25,273,631 ordinary fully paid securities have been bought back prior to the previous day, with an additional 326,573 securities acquired on the previous day. This buy-back initiative is part of the company’s strategy to manage its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value, reflecting its proactive approach in maintaining a strong market position.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NST) stock is a Buy with a A$18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Star Resources Ltd stock, see the AU:NST Stock Forecast page.

Northern Star Resources Updates On-Market Buy-Back Program
May 13, 2025

Northern Star Resources Ltd has announced an update regarding its on-market buy-back program for ordinary fully paid securities. The update includes changes to the total number of securities available for buy-back, reflecting the company’s ongoing efforts to manage its capital structure and enhance shareholder value. This move is part of Northern Star’s broader strategy to optimize its financial operations and strengthen its position within the competitive gold mining industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NST) stock is a Buy with a A$18.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Star Resources Ltd stock, see the AU:NST Stock Forecast page.

Director’s Change in Shareholding at Northern Star Resources
May 8, 2025

Northern Star Resources Ltd has announced a change in the interests of its director, John Daniel Fitzgerald, who has disposed of a total of 23,198 ordinary fully paid shares through on-market trades. This change in director’s interest may indicate strategic financial adjustments or personal financial planning by the director, potentially impacting stakeholder perceptions and the company’s stock market performance.

Northern Star Resources Announces Change in Substantial Holder Interests
May 8, 2025

Northern Star Resources Ltd has announced a change in the interests of a substantial holder, as detailed in their latest notice. This change involves various entities, such as State Street Global Advisors and others, which now hold significant voting power in the company. The announcement highlights the shifting landscape of shareholder influence, potentially impacting the company’s governance and strategic decisions.

Northern Star Completes Acquisition of De Grey Mining
May 5, 2025

Northern Star Resources Ltd has successfully completed the acquisition of De Grey Mining Ltd through a Court-approved Scheme of Arrangement. This strategic move aligns with Northern Star’s goal to enhance its asset portfolio by integrating the Hemi gold project, expected to be a low-cost, long-life, large-scale gold mine. The acquisition is anticipated to bolster Northern Star’s market position and generate cash earnings, while fostering relationships with stakeholders in the Hemi project area.

Change in Substantial Holding for Northern Star Resources Ltd
Apr 29, 2025

Northern Star Resources Ltd has experienced a change in the interests of a substantial holder, State Street Global Advisors. The announcement details the voting power and relevant interests of the substantial holder in the company’s voting securities, which may impact the company’s governance and influence within the industry.

Northern Star Resources Reports Strong March Quarter Results Amid Operational Challenges
Apr 28, 2025

Northern Star Resources Ltd reported strong operational and financial results for the March 2025 quarter, with gold sales totaling 385,441 ounces at an all-in sustaining cost of A$2,246 per ounce. Despite challenges at its KCGM asset, the company achieved a net mine cash flow of A$295 million and revised its FY25 production and cost guidance due to delayed access to higher-grade ore and increased maintenance costs. The company maintains a strong balance sheet with net cash of A$181 million and is on track with its growth strategy, including the completion of the De Grey Scheme of Arrangement.

Northern Star Updates Securities Issuance Plan with De Grey
Apr 23, 2025

Northern Star Resources Ltd has announced an update to its previous securities issuance plan, reflecting additional shares proposed to be issued as part of a scheme of arrangement with De Grey Mining Limited. This update involves the issuance and quotation of 6,421,348 fully paid ordinary shares by De Grey, which is expected to impact Northern Star’s operations by potentially increasing its market capitalization and influence in the mining sector.

Northern Star Completes Acquisition of De Grey Mining
Apr 23, 2025

Northern Star Resources Ltd has successfully acquired De Grey Mining Ltd through a court-approved scheme of arrangement, making the scheme legally effective. As a result, De Grey shares will be suspended from trading, and shareholders will receive 0.119 new Northern Star shares for each De Grey share held. The implementation of the scheme is expected to be completed by May 5, 2025, with De Grey being delisted from the ASX on May 6, 2025. This acquisition is a significant move for Northern Star, potentially enhancing its market position and shareholder value.

Court Approves Northern Star’s Acquisition of De Grey Mining
Apr 22, 2025

De Grey Mining Ltd has announced that the Federal Court of Australia has approved the acquisition of all its shares by Northern Star Resources Ltd through a scheme of arrangement. This legal approval marks a significant step in the acquisition process, with De Grey shares set to be suspended from trading on the ASX from April 23, 2025. The acquisition is expected to impact De Grey’s stakeholders as it transitions under Northern Star’s ownership, with key dates for the scheme’s implementation outlined, including the delisting of De Grey from the ASX on May 6, 2025.

Northern Star Resources Announces Proposed Securities Issue
Apr 22, 2025

Northern Star Resources Ltd has announced a proposed issue of securities, with a maximum of 286,133,827 ordinary fully paid shares to be issued. This move is part of a placement or other type of issue, scheduled for May 5, 2025, and is expected to impact the company’s capital structure and potentially enhance its market positioning.

Northern Star’s Acquisition of De Grey Approved by Shareholders
Apr 16, 2025

Northern Star Resources Ltd has received approval from the requisite majorities of De Grey Mining Ltd shareholders for the acquisition of 100% of De Grey’s shares through a Court-approved scheme of arrangement. This approval marks a significant step towards the merger, with the next phase involving a Federal Court hearing. If successful, De Grey shares will be suspended from trading, and the implementation of the scheme is expected by early May 2025, potentially impacting stakeholders by consolidating Northern Star’s position in the mining industry.

Northern Star Resources Ltd Updates Shareholder Registry Services
Apr 4, 2025

Northern Star Resources Ltd has announced a change in its shareholder registry service provider, transitioning from MUFG Pension & Market Services to Automic Pty Ltd. This change is set to take effect from April 7, 2025, and is expected to enhance shareholder management through Automic’s secure online investor portal, allowing for efficient handling of shareholder details and transaction history.

Northern Star to Acquire De Grey Mining: Court Hearing Scheduled
Apr 4, 2025

Northern Star Resources Ltd is set to acquire 100% of the shares in De Grey Mining Ltd through a Court-approved scheme of arrangement. The Federal Court of Australia has ordered De Grey to convene a shareholder meeting to vote on the scheme, with the final Court hearing scheduled for April 22, 2025. Shareholders have the right to oppose the scheme at the hearing.

Northern Star Resources to Announce March 2025 Quarterly Results
Apr 1, 2025

Northern Star Resources Ltd is set to release its quarterly results for the period ending 31 March 2025 on 29 April 2025. The announcement will be accompanied by a conference call hosted by key executives to discuss the results, reflecting the company’s commitment to transparency and stakeholder engagement.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.