Northern Star Resources Ltd (AU:NST)
ASX:NST
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Northern Star Resources Ltd
(Sydney:NST)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
AU$21.00
▼(-11.62% Downside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:03/14/26
The score is driven by strong financial performance (growth, margins, low leverage, and improving cash flow), partially offset by weak technicals (price below all key moving averages and negative MACD). Valuation is supportive with a moderate P/E and dividend yield, but not strong enough to outweigh the current bearish price trend.
Positive Factors
Margins & Profitability
High margins and 15.7% revenue growth indicate durable pricing power and operational efficiency. Sustained gross (56.6%) and net (20.88%) margins support strong cash generation, enabling funding of capex, exploration and distributions while cushioning against input cost inflation and cyclical revenue swings.
Negative Factors
Modest Return on Equity
An ROE of 8.98% is modest for a capital-intensive miner. If returns only marginally exceed capital costs, long-term shareholder value growth depends on volume increases, higher-grade discoveries or accretive M&A. Those are execution-dependent and may take multiple quarters to years to materialize.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Margins & Profitability
High margins and 15.7% revenue growth indicate durable pricing power and operational efficiency. Sustained gross (56.6%) and net (20.88%) margins support strong cash generation, enabling funding of capex, exploration and distributions while cushioning against input cost inflation and cyclical revenue swings.
Read all positive factors
Northern Star Resources Ltd (NST) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$30.67B
Dividend Yield2.04%
Average Volume (3M)5.84M
Price to Earnings (P/E)19.4
Beta (1Y)1.66
Revenue Growth25.58%
EPS Growth43.29%
CountryAU
Employees3,383
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryGold
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.18
Shares Outstanding1,427,259,900
10 Day Avg. Volume8,384,543
30 Day Avg. Volume5,844,041
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.16
Price to Book (P/B)1.49
Price to Sales (P/S)3.47
P/FCF Ratio33.89
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$26.58Price Target Upside11.89% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)1.2
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$7.60B
Northern Star Resources Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Northern Star Resources Limited is deeply engaged in all facets of gold production, from exploring and discovering new deposits to developing mines, extracting the ore, and processing it. The company also handles the sale of its refined gold outpu...
How the Company Makes Money
Northern Star makes money primarily by producing and selling gold. Revenue is generated when ore is mined from its operations, processed through crushing, milling and gold recovery circuits (e.g., gravity/CIL where applicable) to produce gold doré...
Northern Star Resources Ltd Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 11, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 20, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mixed picture. Material operational setbacks in Q2 (crusher failure at KCGM, Jundee and Thunderbox disruptions, grade shortfalls) caused a downgrade to FY'26 production and drove higher near-term costs and incremental FY'26 capex to keep major projects on schedule. Offsetting these issues are a strong balance sheet (cash & bullion $1.18B, net cash $293M), robust H1 cash earnings and operating cash flow, record mining performance at KCGM, improvement in processing recovery (86%, +5ppt vs expectation) and clear project progress (KCGM mill expansion on track for early FY'27). Management emphasized the one-off nature of many issues and confidence in a stronger second half. Overall, positives (financial strength, project pipeline, recovery improvements and inventory of high-grade ore ready for processing) are balanced by significant operational execution risks and near-term upgrades to capex and schedules.Positive Updates
Balanced FY'26 Revised Guidance
Northern Star revised FY'26 gold sold guidance to 1.6 million–1.7 million ounces and all-in sustaining cost guidance narrowed to $2,600–$2,800/oz, with further detail provided by production center. Guidance incorporates known one-off events and the company expects a stronger second half.
Negative Updates
Softer Q2 Production and High AISC
Gold sold in the December quarter totaled 348,000 ounces at an all-in sustaining cost of AUD 2,937/oz — a softer operating quarter which prompted a downward revision to FY'26 production guidance.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Balanced FY'26 Revised Guidance
Northern Star revised FY'26 gold sold guidance to 1.6 million–1.7 million ounces and all-in sustaining cost guidance narrowed to $2,600–$2,800/oz, with further detail provided by production center. Guidance incorporates known one-off events and the company expects a stronger second half.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Northern Star revised FY‑26 guidance to 1.6–1.7 million ounces of gold sold at an AISC of $2,600–$2,800/oz (after reporting Dec‑quarter gold sold of 348,000 oz at AUD 2,937/oz), kept operational growth CapEx guidance at $1.14–$1.20 billion and detailed FY‑26 project spend including KCGM mill expansion $640–$660 million, KCGM tailings $240–$260 million (FY‑27 $100–$120 million), and Hemi $165–$175 million; operational highlights fueling the outlook included KCGM mining a record 207,000 oz in the quarter, finishing the quarter with 1.3 Mt @ 1.9 g/t and ~81,000 oz of high‑grade ore on the ROM pad, open‑pit material movement of ~22 million (Q2) and 45 million (H1) towards an 80–90 Mtpa annual range, >700,000 t crushed in 20 days (vs Dec month 600,000 t), processing availability YTD 92% and quarter recovery 86%, while the balance sheet shows cash and bullion $1.18 billion, net cash $293 million, H1 cash earnings ~$1.06–$1.11 billion, operating cash flow $738 million, 158,000 oz of hedge deliveries in the quarter and total commitments of 1.1 million oz at an average price just over $3,300/oz, with second‑half group cash tax guidance of $230–$270 million.Northern Star Resources Ltd Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
80
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 6.96B | 6.41B | 4.92B | 4.13B | 3.81B | 2.76B |
| Gross Profit | 2.59B | 3.63B | 1.16B | 577.90M | 529.90M | 564.40M |
| EBITDA | 3.90B | 3.43B | 2.17B | 1.97B | 1.78B | 2.27B |
| Net Income | 1.55B | 1.34B | 638.50M | 585.20M | 429.80M | 1.03B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 20.70B | 20.43B | 13.08B | 12.71B | 11.48B | 11.55B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 865.00M | 1.69B | 1.12B | 1.13B | 571.10M | 771.90M |
| Total Debt | 2.07B | 1.71B | 1.34B | 1.32B | 511.50M | 888.10M |
| Total Liabilities | 5.46B | 5.52B | 4.29B | 4.22B | 3.24B | 3.57B |
| Stockholders Equity | 15.24B | 14.92B | 8.79B | 8.48B | 8.25B | 7.98B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 446.10M | 657.00M | 565.90M | 292.30M | 570.50M | 383.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.73B | 2.95B | 2.07B | 1.35B | 1.63B | 1.08B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.87B | -1.53B | -1.50B | -1.04B | -913.20M | -257.10M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.02B | -965.60M | -577.60M | 245.70M | -927.40M | -718.60M |
Northern Star Resources Ltd Technical Analysis
Positive
23.76
Price Trends
21.17
Positive
23.32
Negative
23.94
Negative
Market Momentum
0.05
Negative
56.40
Neutral
85.10
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:NST, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 23.76 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.82, above the 50-day MA of 21.17, and below the 200-day MA of 23.94, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.40 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.10 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:NST.
Northern Star Resources Ltd Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | AU$26.83B | 19.41 | 25.07% | 1.53% | 30.82% | 90.19% | |
75 Outperform | AU$5.36B | 10.76 | 27.80% | 0.65% | 31.42% | ― | |
67 Neutral | AU$7.42B | 19.58 | 11.87% | 1.32% | 16.69% | 3.17% | |
67 Neutral | AU$4.91B | 18.54 | 12.35% | 0.46% | 101.97% | 237.66% | |
66 Neutral | AU$30.67B | 19.40 | 10.26% | 2.04% | 25.58% | 43.29% | |
66 Neutral | AU$6.11B | 19.28 | 9.94% | 1.92% | 13.34% | -15.96% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
AU:NST
Northern Star Resources Ltd
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Northern Star Resources Ltd Corporate Events
Northern Star Responds to Activist Investor as Major Gold Projects Advance
Jun 10, 2026
Northern Star Resources is reinforcing its strategy around large, long-life Australian gold assets, highlighting recent achievements such as the remediation of the KCGM wall slip to unlock Golden Pike reserves, the near-complete multi-billion-doll...
Northern Star Continues Daily On-Market Share Buy-Back Program
Jun 9, 2026
Northern Star Resources Ltd has provided an update on its ongoing on-market share buy-back program for its ordinary fully paid shares, identified on the ASX as NST. The company reported that a total of 4,417,990 shares had been repurchased prior t...
Northern Star Issues Daily Update on Ongoing Share Buy-Back
Jun 4, 2026
Northern Star Resources has provided an updated notification to the ASX regarding its ongoing on-market share buy-back of ordinary fully paid shares under code NST. The company reported that a total of 3,863,638 shares had been bought back prior t...
Northern Star Updates Details of On-Market Share Buy-Back
Jun 3, 2026
Northern Star Resources has updated details of its on-market share buy-back for its ordinary fully paid shares, confirming a change to the total number of securities on issue in the class subject to repurchase. The latest notice, dated 3 June 2026...
Northern Star Cancels 2.55 Million Shares After On-Market Buy-Back
Jun 3, 2026
Northern Star Resources has cancelled 2,547,457 ordinary fully paid shares following completion of an on-market buy-back, as disclosed in its latest capital announcement. The reduction in issued capital may enhance earnings per share and signals c...
Northern Star boosts gold resources and reserves, cementing long-term growth platform
Jun 2, 2026
Northern Star Resources has reported a sharp increase in its mineral inventory, with group Mineral Resources rising 26% to 88.9 million ounces and Ore Reserves up 27% to 28.4 million ounces as at 31 March 2026, even after mining depletion. The com...
Northern Star responds to Elliott as MD search and KCGM expansion advance
Jun 2, 2026
Northern Star Resources has acknowledged correspondence and public commentary from shareholder Elliott Investment Management, noting it shares Elliott’s view that the company’s asset portfolio is capable of delivering superior sharehol...
Northern Star updates market on ongoing share buy-back activity
May 28, 2026
Northern Star Resources Ltd has provided an update on its on-market share buy-back program, confirming that a total of 3,396,803 ordinary fully paid shares had been repurchased before the previous trading day. The company reported that an addition...
Northern Star Updates Market on Progress of On-Market Share Buy-Back
May 27, 2026
Northern Star Resources Ltd has provided an update on its ongoing on-market share buy-back, covering ordinary fully paid shares under the ASX code NST. The company is executing the buy-back as part of a previously announced capital management init...
Northern Star Extends On-Market Share Buy-Back Programme
May 26, 2026
Northern Star Resources Ltd has continued its on-market share buy-back program, purchasing a total of 243,691 ordinary fully paid shares on the most recent trading day. This takes the cumulative number of shares bought back to 2,939,336 since the ...
Northern Star Updates Market on Progress of On‑Market Share Buy‑Back
May 25, 2026
Northern Star Resources Ltd has provided an updated notification to the ASX on its ongoing on-market share buy-back program for its ordinary fully paid shares. The filing records cumulative buy-backs of 2,662,528 shares prior to the latest reporti...
Northern Star Issues New Shares Following Unquoted Equity Conversion
May 8, 2026
Northern Star Resources has issued 34,154 ordinary fully paid shares on 4 May 2026, following the exercise or conversion of previously unquoted securities. The move marginally increases the company’s share base and reflects the uptake of exi...
Northern Star Updates Daily On-Market Share Buy-Back Activity
May 3, 2026
Northern Star Resources has issued an updated notification on its on-market share buy-back program for its ordinary fully paid shares. The latest filing reports that a total of 2,371,146 shares had been repurchased before the previous trading day,...
Northern Star Cancels 1.3m Shares in On-Market Buy-Back
May 1, 2026
Northern Star Resources has cancelled 1,316,181 ordinary fully paid shares following completion of an on-market buy-back, as disclosed in its latest capital notification to the ASX. The reduction in issued capital marginally increases the ownershi...
Northern Star issues new shares on conversion of unquoted securities
May 1, 2026
Northern Star Resources has issued 31,709 new fully paid ordinary shares following the conversion or exercise of previously unquoted options or other convertible securities. The issuance, effective 28 April 2026, represents a minor enlargement of ...
Northern Star updates market on progress of on‑market share buy-back
Apr 29, 2026
Northern Star Resources Ltd has provided an updated notification to the ASX on its ongoing on-market share buy-back program for its ordinary fully paid shares under the code NST. The latest filing, dated 30 April 2026, reports a cumulative total o...
Northern Star Updates Market on Progress of On‑Market Share Buy‑Back
Apr 26, 2026
Northern Star Resources has issued an updated notification regarding its on-market share buy-back program for its ordinary fully paid shares. The latest filing reports that a cumulative 455,738 shares had been repurchased prior to the previous tra...
Northern Star Refines Details of On-Market Share Buy-Back
Apr 17, 2026
Northern Star Resources has updated its previously announced on-market share buy-back for its ordinary fully paid shares listed under the NST code on the ASX. The latest filing, dated 17 April 2026, is a technical amendment confirming the name of ...
Northern Star Reports Lapse of 218,850 Performance Rights
Apr 7, 2026
Northern Star Resources Ltd has notified the market that 218,850 performance rights, trading under the ASX code NSTAA, have lapsed as of 31 March 2026. The rights ceased because the conditions attached to these conditional securities were not met ...
Northern Star Issues New Shares on Conversion of Unquoted Securities
Apr 7, 2026
Northern Star Resources Ltd has issued 41,407 new ordinary fully paid shares following the conversion or exercise of previously unquoted options or other convertible securities. The new securities, dated 31 March 2026, represent a modest increase ...
Northern Star Announces New On-Market Share Buy-Back
Apr 1, 2026
Northern Star Resources Ltd has notified the market of a new on-market share buy-back program for its ordinary fully paid shares traded under the ASX code NST. The company’s announcement signals an intention to repurchase its own stock on th...
Northern Star launches A$500m on-market share buy-back to boost shareholder returns
Apr 1, 2026
Northern Star Resources Ltd has unveiled plans for an on-market share buy-back of up to A$500 million, representing up to 1.6% of its issued capital, to commence around 23 April 2026 and run for up to 12 months. The program will be executed at the...
Northern Star Tracks Toward FY26 Gold Guidance as KCGM Upgrade Advances
Apr 1, 2026
Northern Star Resources reported preliminary March-quarter gold sales of 381,000 ounces, bringing nine-month output to 1.11 million ounces and keeping it on track to meet its revised full-year 2026 production guidance of above 1.5 million ounces. ...
Northern Star sets April date for March-quarter results call
Apr 1, 2026
Northern Star Resources Ltd will release its quarterly results for the period ended 31 March 2026 before the ASX market opens on 22 April 2026. The company’s Managing Director, Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer will host a ...
Northern Star CEO lifts indirect shareholding after incentive rights vest
Mar 30, 2026
Northern Star Resources has disclosed changes in Managing Director Stuart Tonkin’s security holdings following the exercise of long-term and short-term incentive performance rights. Tonkin converted 380,837 performance rights into ordinary f...
Northern Star Issues 380,837 New Shares on Option Conversion
Mar 30, 2026
Northern Star Resources has issued 380,837 new ordinary fully paid shares following the exercise or conversion of previously unquoted options or other convertible securities. The share issuance, effective 26 March 2026, marginally increases the co...
Northern Star to List 388,238 New Shares Under Distribution Plan
Mar 26, 2026
Northern Star Resources has applied to the ASX for quotation of 388,238 new fully paid ordinary shares, to be issued on 26 March 2026. The securities are being issued under a dividend or distribution plan, modestly increasing the company’s l...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.