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Northern Star Resources Ltd (AU:NST)
ASX:NST

Northern Star Resources Ltd (NST) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:NST

Northern Star Resources Ltd

(Sydney:NST)

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Outperform 76 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
AU$27.00
▼(-0.41% Downside)
Northern Star Resources Ltd demonstrates strong financial performance and positive technical indicators, supporting a solid stock score. The company's strategic progress and robust financial health are significant strengths, although valuation concerns and operational challenges at KCGM slightly temper the outlook.
Positive Factors
Strong Financial Position
A strong balance sheet with significant cash reserves provides Northern Star with financial flexibility to invest in growth opportunities and weather economic downturns.
Record Gold Sales and Cash Flow
Record gold sales and robust cash flow generation highlight the company's operational efficiency and ability to capitalize on favorable market conditions.
Successful Acquisition and Project Advancements
Strategic acquisitions and project advancements enhance Northern Star's resource base and production capabilities, supporting long-term growth.
Negative Factors
Challenges at KCGM
Operational challenges at KCGM could impact Northern Star's production efficiency and cost structure, potentially affecting profitability.
Increased Capital Expenditure
Rising capital expenditures may pressure Northern Star's margins and limit available funds for other strategic initiatives.
Delays in Meeting FY '26 Production Targets
Delays in achieving production targets could hinder revenue growth and investor confidence in Northern Star's operational capabilities.

Northern Star Resources Ltd (NST) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Northern Star Resources Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNorthern Star Resources Limited engages in the exploration, development, mining, and processing of gold deposits in Australia. It also sells refined gold. The company holds interests in the Pogo, Kalgoorlie, KCGM, Jundee, Thunderbox, and Carosue Dam operations, as well as Bronzewing projects. It operates in Western Australia, the Northern Territory, and Alaska. The company was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Subiaco, Australia.
How the Company Makes MoneyNorthern Star Resources generates revenue primarily through the sale of gold. The company's revenue model is based on the extraction and processing of gold ore, which is then sold in the global market. Key revenue streams include the production of gold bars and bullion, and the company benefits from favorable gold prices. Additionally, Northern Star engages in strategic partnerships and joint ventures to enhance its exploration capabilities and expand its resource base. The company's focus on cost-effective mining operations and operational efficiencies further contributes to its profitability. Factors such as market demand for gold, operational performance, and regulatory frameworks also significantly impact its earnings.

Northern Star Resources Ltd Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 20, 2025
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted strong financial performance, record gold sales, and strategic acquisitions. However, challenges at KCGM and increased capital expenditures were notable concerns. Despite these challenges, the financial health and strategic progress of the company remain strong.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Gold Sold and Cash Flow
Northern Star sold 1.634 million ounces of gold for FY '25 at an all-in sustaining cost of AUD 2,163 per ounce, achieving record annual underlying free cash flow.
Strong Financial Position
The company's balance sheet remains robust with cash and bullion of $1.9 billion and a net cash position of $1 billion as of June 30, 2025.
Successful Acquisition and Project Advancements
Northern Star completed the acquisition of De Grey and is advancing the Hemi development project. The KCGM mill expansion project is progressing well and is on track.
Pogo's Record Performance
Pogo delivered a record quarterly performance, including 85,000 ounces of gold sold at USD 1,154 an ounce, contributing AUD 463 million in net mine cash flow for FY '25.
Negative Updates
Challenges at KCGM
The KCGM operation faced productivity and cost headwinds, failing to meet ambitious production targets. KCGM's mining efficiency was below expectations, and access to high-grade ore was delayed.
Increased Capital Expenditure
FY '26 sustaining capital has increased to AUD 750 million due to inflationary pressures, with a year-on-year increase of approximately $100 per ounce.
Delays in Meeting FY '26 Production Targets
Northern Star confirmed it will not reach its 2 million-ounce per annum group target in FY '26, primarily due to challenges at KCGM.
Company Guidance
During the June 2025 quarter, Northern Star sold 444,000 ounces of gold at an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of AUD 2,197 per ounce, meeting their revised guidance for the fiscal year 2025. The full fiscal year saw 1.634 million ounces sold at an AISC of AUD 2,163 per ounce, achieving record annual underlying free cash flow. However, challenges, particularly at KCGM, have led to a confirmation that the ambitious 2 million-ounce production target for fiscal year 2026 will not be met. Despite this, KCGM remains a cornerstone asset with a mine life exceeding 20 years, and its mill expansion project is well on track. Fiscal year 2026 guidance forecasts gold sales between 1.7 million to 1.85 million ounces, with AISC ranging from AUD 2,300 to AUD 2,700 per ounce. The company's balance sheet remains robust, with a net cash position of $1 billion as of June 30, 2025, and a formal decision to wind down its hedge book, aligning with confidence in their future outlook.

Northern Star Resources Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Northern Star Resources Ltd exhibits strong financial health with robust revenue and profit growth, efficient operational management, and prudent financial leverage. The balance sheet is stable with low debt levels, and cash flow generation is strong, supporting future growth and investment opportunities. While the return on equity could be improved, the overall financial position is solid.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Northern Star Resources Ltd has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a 15.74% increase in the latest year, indicating robust demand for its products. The company maintains healthy profitability metrics, with a gross profit margin of 56.6% and a net profit margin of 20.88%, reflecting efficient cost management and strong pricing power. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also solid at 32.26% and 53.54%, respectively, showcasing operational efficiency. Overall, the income statement reflects a strong financial performance with positive growth trends.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The balance sheet of Northern Star Resources Ltd is stable, with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.11, indicating prudent financial leverage. The return on equity is modest at 8.98%, suggesting effective use of shareholder funds, though there is room for improvement. The equity ratio stands at 73.0%, highlighting a strong equity base relative to total assets, which provides financial stability. Overall, the balance sheet reflects a solid financial position with low leverage and a strong equity base.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
The cash flow statement shows a positive trajectory, with a 27.5% growth in free cash flow, indicating improved cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.81 suggests strong cash flow generation relative to reported earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 22.24% indicates a healthy conversion of earnings into cash. Overall, the cash flow statement reflects strong cash generation and effective cash management.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue6.41B6.41B4.92B4.13B3.81B2.76B
Gross Profit2.25B3.63B1.16B577.90M529.90M564.40M
EBITDA3.37B3.43B2.17B1.97B1.78B2.27B
Net Income1.34B1.34B638.50M585.20M429.80M1.03B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets20.43B20.43B13.08B12.71B11.48B11.55B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.69B1.69B1.12B1.13B571.10M771.90M
Total Debt1.71B1.71B1.34B1.32B511.50M888.10M
Total Liabilities5.52B5.52B4.29B4.22B3.24B3.57B
Stockholders Equity14.92B14.92B8.79B8.48B8.25B7.98B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow798.60M657.00M565.90M292.30M570.50M383.70M
Operating Cash Flow2.95B2.95B2.07B1.35B1.63B1.08B
Investing Cash Flow-1.53B-1.53B-1.50B-1.04B-913.20M-257.10M
Financing Cash Flow-965.60M-965.60M-577.60M245.70M-927.40M-718.60M

Northern Star Resources Ltd Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price27.11
Price Trends
50DMA
25.97
Positive
100DMA
24.15
Positive
200DMA
21.38
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.11
Negative
RSI
55.60
Neutral
STOCH
76.30
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:NST, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 27.11 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 26.06, above the 50-day MA of 25.97, and above the 200-day MA of 21.38, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.11 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.60 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.30 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:NST.

Northern Star Resources Ltd Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
79
Outperform
AU$8.05B14.2821.17%1.32%23.35%15.96%
78
Outperform
$5.88B23.0516.68%0.65%30.46%
77
Outperform
AU$26.93B28.5219.86%1.53%35.31%115.08%
76
Outperform
AU$38.22B23.7311.04%2.04%30.35%102.55%
76
Outperform
AU$8.61B37.4019.70%109.79%158.18%
61
Neutral
$10.43B7.12-0.05%2.87%2.86%-36.73%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:NST
Northern Star Resources Ltd
27.11
10.17
60.00%
AU:PRU
Perseus Mining
5.91
3.23
120.11%
AU:EVN
Evolution Mining
13.07
7.61
139.51%
AU:RRL
Regis Resources Limited
7.67
4.73
160.80%
AU:GMD
Genesis Minerals Limited
7.32
4.41
151.55%

Northern Star Resources Ltd Corporate Events

Northern Star Details Timing and Impact of Operational Setbacks in Response to ASX Query
Jan 8, 2026

Northern Star Resources has responded to an ASX query following its 2 January 2026 operational update, confirming that a downgrade to its production forecast and several operational issues are considered potentially material to its share price. The company said it only became aware on 1 January 2026, after receiving full December quarter data, that softer operational performance, lower-than-expected gold sales across all three production centres and the impact of issues such as an underperforming primary crusher at KCGM and carbon-in-leach failures at Thunderbox were likely to affect its ability to meet annual production guidance. While acknowledging that annual cost guidance is expected to be impacted by the weaker December quarter, Northern Star said it still lacks sufficient information to quantify the effect and will update the market once it can reasonably frame and confirm any material change, underscoring the operational uncertainty and heightened scrutiny of its guidance disclosures.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NST) stock is a Buy with a A$31.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Star Resources Ltd stock, see the AU:NST Stock Forecast page.

Northern Star Performance Rights Lapse After Vesting Conditions Not Met
Jan 7, 2026

Northern Star Resources has notified the market that 138,237 performance rights, trading under the ASX code NSTAA, have lapsed after the conditions attached to those rights were not met or became incapable of being satisfied as of 31 December 2025. The cessation of these performance rights slightly reduces the pool of potential future equity issuance tied to conditional incentives, signaling that specific performance or vesting hurdles were not achieved and marginally limiting future dilution for existing shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NST) stock is a Hold with a A$28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Star Resources Ltd stock, see the AU:NST Stock Forecast page.

Northern Star Issues 157,863 New Shares on Option Conversion
Jan 7, 2026

Northern Star Resources Ltd has issued 157,863 new fully paid ordinary shares following the exercise or conversion of previously unquoted options or other convertible securities. The issuance, effective 31 December 2025 and disclosed via an Appendix 3G filing, modestly increases the company’s share capital and reflects the take-up of equity-based instruments, which may slightly dilute existing shareholders but also signals the realisation of value by holders of those unquoted securities.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NST) stock is a Hold with a A$28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Star Resources Ltd stock, see the AU:NST Stock Forecast page.

Northern Star Issues New Performance Rights Under Employee Incentive Scheme
Jan 7, 2026

Northern Star Resources has notified the market of the issue of 95,284 unquoted performance rights under its employee incentive scheme, with an issue date of 31 December 2025. The move reinforces the company’s use of equity-based incentives to align employees’ interests with long-term shareholder value, though the modest scale of the issuance suggests limited immediate impact on its capital structure or control.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NST) stock is a Hold with a A$28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Star Resources Ltd stock, see the AU:NST Stock Forecast page.

Northern Star Sets Date for December Quarter Results and Investor Call
Jan 6, 2026

Northern Star Resources Ltd will release its quarterly results for the period ended 31 December 2025 before the ASX opens on 22 January 2026. The company’s managing director, chief financial officer and chief operating officer will host a conference call that morning to discuss the December quarter performance, with a live audio stream available to shareholders by registration and a replay accessible about an hour after the event, underscoring Northern Star’s ongoing engagement with investors ahead of a potentially market‑moving update on its operational and financial progress.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NST) stock is a Hold with a A$28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Star Resources Ltd stock, see the AU:NST Stock Forecast page.

Northern Star trims FY26 gold output guidance after soft December quarter
Jan 1, 2026

Northern Star Resources has cut its FY26 production guidance to 1.6–1.7 million ounces of gold from 1.7–1.85 million ounces after a soft December quarter, when group sales fell to about 348,000 ounces, bringing first-half sales to roughly 729,000 ounces. The weaker performance stemmed from a cluster of operational setbacks late in the quarter, including a primary crusher failure at KCGM in Kalgoorlie, extended recovery works at Jundee after a structural failure, lower grades and processing downtime at Thunderbox, and dilution-related grade impacts at Pogo, with lower sales at all three production centres expected to push costs higher; detailed cost figures and revised guidance will be provided with the December quarterly results on 22 January 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NST) stock is a Buy with a A$32.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Star Resources Ltd stock, see the AU:NST Stock Forecast page.

Van Eck Exits Substantial Holder Position in Northern Star Resources
Dec 23, 2025

Van Eck Associates Corporation, a global asset manager and previous substantial shareholder in Northern Star Resources Ltd, has notified the market that it ceased to be a substantial holder in the gold miner as of 19 December 2025. The change follows a series of on-market and in‑kind transactions in Northern Star securities over several months, signalling a reduction of Van Eck’s exposure to the stock and potentially altering the company’s institutional share register and liquidity profile, although no changes in corporate control or governance arrangements were disclosed.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NST) stock is a Buy with a A$32.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Star Resources Ltd stock, see the AU:NST Stock Forecast page.

Northern Star Resources Announces Strategic FY26 Exploration Program
Dec 4, 2025

Northern Star Resources Ltd has announced an update on its FY26 exploration program, emphasizing its commitment to organic growth through strategic exploration investments. The company plans to spend A$225 million on exploration activities, focusing on near-mine opportunities across its production centers in Kalgoorlie, Yandal, and Pogo, as well as the newly acquired Hemi project. This investment aims to enhance portfolio quality, extend mine life, and support the strategic conversion of mineralized systems, thereby creating long-term value for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NST) stock is a Buy with a A$30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Star Resources Ltd stock, see the AU:NST Stock Forecast page.

Northern Star Resources Updates Ore Reserves and Mineral Resources
Nov 24, 2025

Northern Star Resources Ltd has announced updates on its Ore Reserves and Mineral Resources as of March 31, 2025, confirming that there have been no material changes except for normal mining depletion. The company is also reviewing data for the Hemi Development Project, acquired through the acquisition of De Grey, and plans to report updated estimates by May 2026. These updates are crucial for stakeholders as they reflect the company’s ongoing resource management and future production targets, ensuring transparency and strategic planning in the competitive gold mining sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NST) stock is a Buy with a A$29.75 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Star Resources Ltd stock, see the AU:NST Stock Forecast page.

Northern Star Resources Announces Director’s Interest Change
Nov 20, 2025

Northern Star Resources Ltd announced a change in the director’s interest, with Stuart Peter Tonkin acquiring 403,466 performance rights. This acquisition, approved at the Annual General Meeting, reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to aligning executive incentives with shareholder interests, potentially impacting its operational strategies and market perception.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NST) stock is a Buy with a A$29.75 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Star Resources Ltd stock, see the AU:NST Stock Forecast page.

Northern Star Resources Issues Performance Rights to Boost Employee Engagement
Nov 20, 2025

Northern Star Resources Ltd announced the issuance of 403,466 performance rights as part of an employee incentive scheme. This move is likely to enhance employee engagement and align their interests with the company’s growth objectives, potentially impacting its operational efficiency and market competitiveness.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NST) stock is a Buy with a A$29.75 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Star Resources Ltd stock, see the AU:NST Stock Forecast page.

Northern Star Resources Ltd Confirms Key Resolutions at Annual General Meeting
Nov 18, 2025

Northern Star Resources Ltd held its Annual General Meeting on November 18, 2025, where several key resolutions were passed. The meeting saw the adoption of the Remuneration Report and the approval of FY26 performance rights for the Managing Director & CEO, Mr. Stuart Tonkin. Additionally, the re-election of Director Mr. Nicholas Cernotta was confirmed. These decisions reflect the company’s ongoing commitment to strong leadership and strategic growth, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NST) stock is a Buy with a A$35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Star Resources Ltd stock, see the AU:NST Stock Forecast page.

Northern Star Resources Reports Strong Financial Performance and Strategic Acquisitions
Nov 18, 2025

Northern Star Resources Ltd reported a solid performance for the fiscal year 2024/25, achieving gold sales of 1.634 million ounces, albeit slightly below original guidance due to geotechnical challenges. The company saw a 59% increase in cash earnings to A$2.9 billion and a 37% rise in dividends per share, reflecting robust cash generation. A key highlight was the acquisition of De Grey Mining Ltd, positioning Northern Star for long-term success with the Hemi Development Project. The company also made significant progress on the KCGM Mill Expansion Project and clean energy initiatives, underscoring its commitment to growth and sustainability.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NST) stock is a Buy with a A$35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Star Resources Ltd stock, see the AU:NST Stock Forecast page.

JPMorgan Ceases Substantial Holding in Northern Star Resources
Oct 21, 2025

Northern Star Resources Ltd has announced that JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates have ceased to be substantial holders in the company. This change involves various transactions, including purchases, sales, and securities lending activities, impacting a significant number of ordinary shares. The cessation of JPMorgan’s substantial holding could have implications for Northern Star’s shareholder composition and market perception, potentially affecting investor confidence and the company’s stock performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NST) stock is a Buy with a A$30.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Star Resources Ltd stock, see the AU:NST Stock Forecast page.

Northern Star Resources Announces 2025 AGM Details
Oct 17, 2025

Northern Star Resources Ltd has announced the dispatch of an Access Letter to its shareholders regarding the company’s 2025 Annual General Meeting. The meeting is scheduled to be held both in person and online on 18 November 2025. This announcement highlights the company’s commitment to shareholder engagement and transparency, as it provides details on how shareholders can participate in the meeting and vote by proxy. The move is part of Northern Star’s efforts to ensure accessibility and convenience for its stakeholders, reflecting its strategic focus on maintaining strong investor relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NST) stock is a Buy with a A$28.20 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Northern Star Resources Ltd stock, see the AU:NST Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 14, 2025