Evolution Mining (EVN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$31.90B
• Dividend Yield: 1.53%
• Average Volume (3M): 7.03M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 23.8
• Beta (1Y): 1.04
• Revenue Growth: 35.31%
• EPS Growth: 115.08%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 2,000
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Gold
• EPS (TTM): 0.38
• Shares Outstanding: 2,030,621,300
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 8,964,585
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 7,029,608
• PEG Ratio: 0.15
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.14
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.57
• P/FCF Ratio: 19.67
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: AU$12.95
• Price Target Upside: -21.03% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Sell
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.92
• Revenue Forecast (FY): AU$5.97B

• Rating: 78 Outperform
• Price Target: AU$18.50 ▲(12.80% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/13/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/13/26

The score is driven primarily by strong fundamentals (growth, margins, cash flow and manageable leverage) and a very constructive earnings update with improved cost guidance and stronger cash/balance sheet position. Technicals are supportive but momentum looks somewhat stretched, while valuation is the main drawback due to the higher P/E and modest dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Robust cash generation

Sustained, materially higher operating and underlying cash flow strengthens funding for sustaining and growth capex, dividends and exploration without adding leverage. This durable cash generation underpins measured capital allocation and resilience through commodity cycles over the next 2–6 months and beyond.

Strengthened balance sheet and liquidity

A near‑$1bn cash position and sharply lower gearing materially increase financial flexibility, reduce refinancing risk and allow funding of projects or buybacks without high leverage. This structural improvement supports lower funding costs and optionality across business cycles.

High margins and improving revenue

Consistent revenue growth with strong gross and EBIT margins indicates operational efficiency and portfolio quality. Durable margins provide cushion against cost inflation and commodity variability, supporting reinvestment, free cash flow conversion and sustainable returns to shareholders.

Negative Factors

Weather/climate exposure at Ernest Henry

Extreme weather disrupted production and highlights operational vulnerability to climate and hydrological events. Recurrent severe weather can raise remediation and insurance costs, reduce available volumes and complicate production planning, creating a persistent operational risk to output and cash flow.

Mill throughput constraints limit near-term growth

Existing mill bottlenecks cap organic production growth without incremental capital or new high‑grade feed. Addressing constraints requires disciplined capex decisions that could delay volume upside and force trade‑offs between margin preservation and growth over the medium term.

By-product price and timing volatility

Dependence on quotational pricing and offtake timing for copper creates recurring earnings and cash timing variability. Structural exposure to payment/pricing mechanics can complicate cash flow forecasting and reduces the predictability of by‑product credits that materially affect unit costs and margins.

Evolution Mining Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Evolution Mining Limited engages in the exploration, mine development, mine operations, and sale of gold and gold-copper concentrates in Australia and Canada. It also explores for copper and silver deposits. As of June 30, 2022, the company operated five gold mines, such as Cowal in New South Wales; Ernest Henry and Mt Rawdon in Queensland; Mungari in Western Australia; and Red Lake in Ontario. It also holds a 100% interest in the Kundana Operations; a 51% interest in the East Kundana Joint Venture; a 100% interest in the certain tenements comprising the Carbine project; and a 75% interest in the West Kundana Joint Venture. The company was formerly known as Catalpa Resources Limited and changed its name to Evolution Mining Limited in November 2011. Evolution Mining Limited was incorporated in 1998 and is based in Sydney, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

Evolution Mining generates revenue primarily through the extraction and sale of gold. The company operates mines that produce gold, which is sold in the form of bullion and through contracts with various buyers, including refiners and jewelers. Key revenue streams include the sale of gold at market prices, which can fluctuate based on global demand and market conditions. Additionally, Evolution Mining may benefit from hedging activities that lock in prices for a portion of its production, providing some revenue stability. The company's strategic partnerships with other mining entities and suppliers also contribute to its operational efficiency and cost management, further enhancing its profitability.

Evolution Mining Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong operating performance with 11.33% revenue growth, healthy profitability (net margin 21.28%, EBIT margin 32.91%), and strong cash generation (free cash flow up 31.91% with operating cash flow well above net income). Balance sheet leverage is manageable (debt-to-equity 0.36) with solid ROE (18.68%).

Income Statement

Evolution Mining has demonstrated strong revenue growth with an 11.33% increase in the latest year, supported by robust gross and net profit margins of 35.83% and 21.28%, respectively. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also healthy at 32.91% and 49.42%, indicating efficient operations. The consistent upward trajectory in revenue and profitability metrics highlights the company's strong market position and operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet is stable with a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.36, showing a decrease from previous years, which indicates improved financial leverage. The return on equity is strong at 18.68%, reflecting effective use of equity to generate profits. However, the equity ratio of 51.44% suggests a balanced approach to financing with both debt and equity.

Cash Flow

Evolution Mining's cash flow is strong, with a significant 31.91% growth in free cash flow, indicating improved cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.07 suggests efficient conversion of income into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.40 indicates a solid ability to generate cash relative to net income, supporting future investments and debt repayments.

Breakdown	TTM	Jun 2025	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	5.11B	4.35B	3.22B	2.23B	2.06B	1.86B
Gross Profit	2.17B	1.56B	923.26M	416.20M	486.60M	575.21M
EBITDA	2.76B	2.15B	1.43B	847.36M	934.85M	899.87M
Net Income	1.33B	926.17M	422.27M	163.51M	323.32M	345.26M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	10.02B	9.64B	8.82B	6.75B	6.63B	3.96B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	966.49M	759.63M	403.30M	46.15M	572.43M	160.06M
Total Debt	1.51B	1.79B	2.02B	1.82B	1.86B	636.33M
Total Liabilities	4.39B	4.68B	4.68B	3.46B	3.38B	1.42B
Stockholders Equity	5.63B	4.96B	4.14B	3.29B	3.25B	2.53B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.42B	790.20M	363.16M	-103.39M	107.58M	319.69M
Operating Cash Flow	2.38B	1.97B	1.28B	735.28M	776.68M	757.01M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.22B	-1.19B	-1.51B	-1.03B	-1.83B	-724.12M
Financing Cash Flow	-713.21M	-435.81M	586.65M	-226.28M	1.47B	-244.79M

Evolution Mining Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 16.40
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:EVN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 16.4 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.16, above the 50-day MA of 14.04, and above the 200-day MA of 10.48, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.53 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.68 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.74 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:EVN.

Evolution Mining Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RRL	79 Outperform	AU$6.80B	13.91	16.68%	0.65%	30.46%	―
EVN	78 Outperform	AU$31.90B	23.77	19.86%	1.53%	35.31%	115.08%
NST	76 Outperform	AU$42.55B	25.14	11.04%	2.04%	30.35%	102.55%
PRU	73 Outperform	AU$7.95B	14.47	21.17%	1.32%	23.35%	15.96%
GMD	73 Outperform	AU$8.22B	20.76	19.70%	―	109.79%	158.18%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%

Evolution Mining Corporate Events

Evolution Mining Declares AUD 0.20 Interim Dividend

Evolution Mining Limited has declared an ordinary dividend of AUD 0.20 per fully paid share for the six-month period ended 31 December 2025, with an ex-dividend date of 3 March 2026 and a record date of 4 March 2026. The dividend is scheduled to be paid on 2 April 2026, and shareholders may elect to participate in the dividend reinvestment plan by 5 March 2026, underscoring the miner’s continued capital returns to investors and potential appeal to income-focused shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EVN) stock is a Sell with a A$11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolution Mining stock, see the AU:EVN Stock Forecast page.

Evolution Mining outlines 2026 half-year results and use of non-IFRS metrics

Evolution Mining has released its 2026 half-year financial results presentation, led by managing director and CEO Lawrie Conway, CFO Fran Summerhayes and CTO Nancy Guay. The update outlines financial metrics, production performance and cost measures, noting that several key indicators are presented using non‑IFRS and non‑GAAP metrics such as all‑in sustaining cost to give investors additional insight into operating performance.

The company cautions that the materials contain forward‑looking statements subject to commodity price volatility, regulatory changes, operational risks and other external factors that could cause actual outcomes to differ. Evolution also highlights that non‑IFRS measures are not standardised under Australian Accounting Standards, may not be comparable with peers and have not been audited, underscoring the need for investors to exercise care when interpreting the results and guidance.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EVN) stock is a Sell with a A$11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolution Mining stock, see the AU:EVN Stock Forecast page.

Evolution Mining Reshapes Triple Flag Streaming Deal to Unlock Northparkes Gold Growth

Evolution Mining has amended and restated its metal purchase and sale agreement for the Northparkes operation with Triple Flag, securing an additional A$120 million refundable upfront deposit timed to support development of the E22 block cave. The revised terms notably cut Triple Flag’s streaming rate on the gold-rich E44 deposit, improving project economics and creating a clearer pathway to bring E44, which is not currently in the mine plan, into production.

The deal also introduces a binding minimum gold and silver delivery obligation for FY31–FY38 and sets out options for either repaying the deposit with compensation or refunding any uncredited balance if a final investment decision on E44 is not made by the end of 2029. Evolution has approved an updated study on E44 and says the new framework with Triple Flag opens the broader Northparkes tenement to additional gold-dominant developments, reinforcing the operation’s long-term growth potential for both companies’ shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EVN) stock is a Sell with a A$11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolution Mining stock, see the AU:EVN Stock Forecast page.

Evolution Mining Approves Portfolio Growth Projects to Lift Returns

Evolution Mining’s board has approved a suite of growth projects aimed at lifting returns across its portfolio, highlighted by a A$545 million investment to develop the E22 block cave at Northparkes into a long-life, low-cost bulk underground operation. The project, expected to deliver first ore by the end of FY2030 and operate for about nine years at roughly 6 million tonnes per annum, is forecast to generate a 28% internal rate of return at base case metal prices, rising to 38% under upside assumptions.

Complementing E22, Evolution will invest about A$75 million in a Coarse Particle Flotation project at Northparkes to boost copper recovery by around 2%, improve energy efficiency and enable mill throughput to increase to 8 million tonnes per annum by FY2028, while a A$14 million expansion study will assess further mill capacity growth. At Ernest Henry, the company approved a A$160 million development of the Bert deposit to provide incremental feed and better utilise latent mill capacity, and it also moved to acquire the Two Times Fred project and secure an option over the Clisbako project in British Columbia, strengthening its exploration pipeline and underpinning management’s strategy to lift portfolio returns above the current 18% average and sustain higher shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EVN) stock is a Sell with a A$11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolution Mining stock, see the AU:EVN Stock Forecast page.

Evolution Mining Posts Record Half-Year Profit and Triples Interim Dividend

Evolution Mining reported a record statutory net profit of $767 million for the half year to 31 December 2025, driven by strong operational discipline, higher metal prices and robust cash generation. Underlying net profit more than doubled to $785 million, EBITDA rose 57% with margins improving to 57%, and operating mine cash flow surged 75% to $1.73 billion, despite slightly lower gold and copper production.

The miner strengthened its balance sheet with cash rising to $967 million, net debt falling to $362 million and gearing reduced to 6%, reflecting substantial deleveraging. In line with its policy to return excess cash, the board declared a fully franked interim dividend of 20 cents per share, almost tripling the prior year payout and underscoring management’s confidence in the company’s cash flow profile and growth pipeline.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EVN) stock is a Sell with a A$11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolution Mining stock, see the AU:EVN Stock Forecast page.

Evolution Mining posts record half-year profit and lifts dividends on strong cash flows

Evolution Mining reported a record half-year statutory net profit after tax of A$766.6 million for the period ended 31 December 2025, more than doubling the prior year, as revenue climbed 37% to A$2.79 billion and underlying EBITDA jumped 57%. Earnings per share rose 107% to a record 37.96 cents, supported by on-plan gold and copper production, improved prices, and disciplined cost control that also saw net tangible assets per share lift to A$3.22.

Operationally, the miner delivered 365,000 ounces of gold and 36,000 tonnes of copper in line with plan, reaffirmed FY26 gold guidance and trimmed group all-in sustaining cost guidance to A$1,640 an ounce despite weather-related disruption at Ernest Henry. Strong cash generation drove record operating and net mine cash flows, boosted the cash balance to A$966.5 million, and underpinned a fully franked interim dividend of 20 cents per share, marking the company’s 26th consecutive payout and signalling continued confidence in its financial position.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EVN) stock is a Sell with a A$11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolution Mining stock, see the AU:EVN Stock Forecast page.

Evolution Mining Sets Date for Half-Year Results and Investor Briefing

Evolution Mining will release its financial report for the half year ended 31 December 2025 to the ASX before market open on 11 February 2026 and will host a results conference call at 10:30am Sydney time on the same day. The call, led by Managing Director and CEO Lawrie Conway and CFO Fran Summerhayes, will be accessible via a live listen-only audio stream for shareholders and via a pre-registered conference line with Q&A for analysts and media, with the recording to be made available on the company’s website, underscoring Evolution’s emphasis on investor communication and transparency around its operational and financial performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EVN) stock is a Hold with a A$12.30 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolution Mining stock, see the AU:EVN Stock Forecast page.

Evolution Mining to Release December Quarter 2025 Results

Evolution Mining Limited announced that its quarterly report for the period ending December 31, 2025, will be released on January 21, 2026, followed by a conference call hosted by the company’s CEO and COO. The call will provide insights into the company’s performance and is accessible via a live audio stream for shareholders and a Q&A session for analysts and media, indicating the company’s commitment to transparency and stakeholder engagement.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EVN) stock is a Sell with a A$10.10 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolution Mining stock, see the AU:EVN Stock Forecast page.

Evolution Mining Announces Director’s Interest Change

Evolution Mining Limited has announced a change in the director’s interest, specifically regarding Andrea Hall’s holdings. The update reveals an acquisition of 15,352 Fully Paid Ordinary Shares and 8,662 Share Rights, increasing the total holdings to 138,906 shares and 8,662 Share Rights. This change reflects the vesting of Share Rights under the NED Equity Plan, indicating a strategic move to align director interests with company performance, potentially impacting stakeholder confidence positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EVN) stock is a Sell with a A$10.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolution Mining stock, see the AU:EVN Stock Forecast page.

Evolution Mining Issues New Securities Under Employee Incentive Scheme

Evolution Mining Limited has announced the issuance of 95,655 ordinary fully paid securities under an employee incentive scheme, which will be quoted on the ASX. This move is part of the company’s ongoing efforts to enhance employee engagement and align their interests with the company’s growth objectives, potentially impacting its operational dynamics and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EVN) stock is a Sell with a A$10.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolution Mining stock, see the AU:EVN Stock Forecast page.

Evolution Mining Issues New Share Rights Under Employee Incentive Scheme

Evolution Mining Limited announced the issuance of 53,971 share rights under an employee incentive scheme. These securities are unquoted and subject to transfer restrictions until the end of the restriction period, reflecting the company’s commitment to employee engagement and retention through equity incentives.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EVN) stock is a Sell with a A$10.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolution Mining stock, see the AU:EVN Stock Forecast page.

Evolution Mining Announces Director’s Interest Change

Evolution Mining Limited has announced a change in the director’s interest, specifically regarding Lawrie Conway’s holdings. The company issued 557,377 performance rights to Mr. Conway under the Evolution Employee Share Option and Performance Rights Plan, which was approved by shareholders. This move reflects the company’s ongoing efforts to align management incentives with shareholder interests and may impact the company’s operational strategies and stakeholder relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EVN) stock is a Sell with a A$10.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolution Mining stock, see the AU:EVN Stock Forecast page.

Evolution Mining Issues Unquoted Equity Securities Under Employee Incentive Scheme

Evolution Mining Limited announced the issuance of 557,377 unquoted equity securities under an employee incentive scheme. These securities, categorized as performance rights, are subject to transfer restrictions and are not quoted on the ASX until these restrictions are lifted. This move is part of the company’s strategy to align employee interests with corporate goals, potentially impacting its operational efficiency and stakeholder engagement.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EVN) stock is a Sell with a A$10.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolution Mining stock, see the AU:EVN Stock Forecast page.

Evolution Mining Reports Record Year and Strategic Initiatives

Evolution Mining’s recent annual general meeting highlighted a successful year, marked by improved safety performance and record dividends, totaling $400 million. The company is well-positioned for future growth, benefiting from high commodity prices and a strong portfolio. Evolution Mining also announced a partnership with the University of Queensland to establish a fellowship aimed at enhancing mining safety and sustainability. Additionally, the company is transitioning the Mt Rawdon site into a pumped hydro power station, reflecting its commitment to innovation and renewable energy.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EVN) stock is a Hold with a A$12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolution Mining stock, see the AU:EVN Stock Forecast page.