Evolution Mining (EVN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$28.19B
• Dividend Yield: 1.53%
• Average Volume (3M): 7.03M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 29.8
• Beta (1Y): 1.05
• Revenue Growth: 35.31%
• EPS Growth: 115.08%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 2,000
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Gold
• EPS (TTM): 0.29
• Shares Outstanding: 2,030,621,300
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 8,964,585
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 7,029,608
• PEG Ratio: 0.15
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.14
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.57
• P/FCF Ratio: 19.67
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: AU$12.08
• Price Target Upside: -16.43% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Sell
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: AU$16.50 ▲(14.11% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (profitability, improving leverage, and robust cash flow). Earnings-call guidance and operational execution signals are supportive, but technical indicators look overheated and valuation is relatively expensive with a modest dividend yield, tempering the overall rating.

Positive Factors

Strong cash generation

Evolution's outsized operating cash flow and 31.91% free cash flow growth signal durable cash generation that funds reinvestment, debt repayment and shareholder returns. Robust cash conversion increases resilience to commodity cycles and supports multi-year growth plans.

Improved leverage and balance sheet health

Material deleveraging plus a manageable debt/equity ratio (0.36) and strong ROE (18.68%) enhance financial flexibility. Lower leverage supports sizable capex and exploration programs without materially increasing refinancing risk over the next few years.

High-quality assets and successful expansion

Commissioning at Mungari and discovery of >300,000 oz at ~10 g/t indicate both organic growth and high-grade resource upside. Asset expansion plus exploration success underpin sustainable production profiles and lower long-term unit costs versus peers.

Negative Factors

Rising all-in sustaining costs

AISC guidance elevated by inflation and higher non-cash stockpile costs pressures long-term margin sustainability per ounce. Persistently higher AISC reduces free cash flow per unit and increases sensitivity of profitability to lower long-run metal prices.

Declining reserve grade at Red Lake

A lower reserve grade reduces recoverable ounces and typically raises per‑unit operating and sustaining costs over time. Reduced continuity complicates mine planning and may require additional investment to sustain prior production rates and margins.

Sizable ongoing capital expenditure requirement

Although down from prior year, near‑term capex approaching $1bn remains structurally large and competes with free cash flow. Sustained high investment needs require disciplined allocation and can constrain returns or necessitate continued strong cash generation.

Evolution Mining Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Evolution Mining Limited engages in the exploration, mine development, mine operations, and sale of gold and gold-copper concentrates in Australia and Canada. It also explores for copper and silver deposits. As of June 30, 2022, the company operated five gold mines, such as Cowal in New South Wales; Ernest Henry and Mt Rawdon in Queensland; Mungari in Western Australia; and Red Lake in Ontario. It also holds a 100% interest in the Kundana Operations; a 51% interest in the East Kundana Joint Venture; a 100% interest in the certain tenements comprising the Carbine project; and a 75% interest in the West Kundana Joint Venture. The company was formerly known as Catalpa Resources Limited and changed its name to Evolution Mining Limited in November 2011. Evolution Mining Limited was incorporated in 1998 and is based in Sydney, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

Evolution Mining generates revenue primarily through the extraction and sale of gold. The company operates mines that produce gold, which is sold in the form of bullion and through contracts with various buyers, including refiners and jewelers. Key revenue streams include the sale of gold at market prices, which can fluctuate based on global demand and market conditions. Additionally, Evolution Mining may benefit from hedging activities that lock in prices for a portion of its production, providing some revenue stability. The company's strategic partnerships with other mining entities and suppliers also contribute to its operational efficiency and cost management, further enhancing its profitability.

Evolution Mining Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong overall fundamentals supported by solid revenue growth (+11.33%), healthy profitability (net margin 21.28%, EBITDA margin 49.42%), improving leverage (debt-to-equity 0.36), and strong cash generation (free cash flow growth +31.91% and operating cash flow to net income 2.07).

Income Statement

Evolution Mining has demonstrated strong revenue growth with an 11.33% increase in the latest year, supported by robust gross and net profit margins of 35.83% and 21.28%, respectively. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are also healthy at 32.91% and 49.42%, indicating efficient operations. The consistent upward trajectory in revenue and profitability metrics highlights the company's strong market position and operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet is stable with a manageable debt-to-equity ratio of 0.36, showing a decrease from previous years, which indicates improved financial leverage. The return on equity is strong at 18.68%, reflecting effective use of equity to generate profits. However, the equity ratio of 51.44% suggests a balanced approach to financing with both debt and equity.

Cash Flow

Evolution Mining's cash flow is strong, with a significant 31.91% growth in free cash flow, indicating improved cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.07 suggests efficient conversion of income into cash. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.40 indicates a solid ability to generate cash relative to net income, supporting future investments and debt repayments.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	4.35B	4.35B	3.22B	2.23B	2.06B	1.86B
Gross Profit	1.56B	1.56B	923.26M	416.20M	486.60M	575.21M
EBITDA	2.15B	2.15B	1.43B	847.36M	934.85M	899.87M
Net Income	926.17M	926.17M	422.27M	163.51M	323.32M	345.26M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	9.64B	9.64B	8.82B	6.75B	6.63B	3.96B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	759.63M	759.63M	403.30M	46.15M	572.43M	160.06M
Total Debt	1.79B	1.79B	2.02B	1.82B	1.86B	636.33M
Total Liabilities	4.68B	4.68B	4.68B	3.46B	3.38B	1.42B
Stockholders Equity	4.96B	4.96B	4.14B	3.29B	3.25B	2.53B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	790.20M	790.20M	363.16M	-103.39M	107.58M	319.69M
Operating Cash Flow	1.97B	1.97B	1.28B	735.28M	776.68M	757.01M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.19B	-1.19B	-1.51B	-1.03B	-1.83B	-724.12M
Financing Cash Flow	-435.81M	-435.81M	586.65M	-226.28M	1.47B	-244.79M

Evolution Mining Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 14.46
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:EVN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 14.46 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.83, above the 50-day MA of 12.80, and above the 200-day MA of 9.87, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.59 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.77 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 43.35 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:EVN.

Evolution Mining Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RRL	78 Outperform	AU$5.72B	22.42	16.68%	0.65%	30.46%	―
NST	76 Outperform	AU$38.03B	23.62	11.04%	2.04%	30.35%	102.55%
EVN	73 Outperform	AU$28.19B	29.85	19.86%	1.53%	35.31%	115.08%
PRU	73 Outperform	AU$7.61B	13.49	21.17%	1.32%	23.35%	15.96%
GMD	72 Outperform	AU$7.96B	36.28	19.70%	―	109.79%	158.18%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%

Evolution Mining Corporate Events

Evolution Mining to Release December Quarter 2025 Results

Evolution Mining Limited announced that its quarterly report for the period ending December 31, 2025, will be released on January 21, 2026, followed by a conference call hosted by the company’s CEO and COO. The call will provide insights into the company’s performance and is accessible via a live audio stream for shareholders and a Q&A session for analysts and media, indicating the company’s commitment to transparency and stakeholder engagement.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EVN) stock is a Sell with a A$10.10 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolution Mining stock, see the AU:EVN Stock Forecast page.

Evolution Mining Announces Director’s Interest Change

Evolution Mining Limited has announced a change in the director’s interest, specifically regarding Andrea Hall’s holdings. The update reveals an acquisition of 15,352 Fully Paid Ordinary Shares and 8,662 Share Rights, increasing the total holdings to 138,906 shares and 8,662 Share Rights. This change reflects the vesting of Share Rights under the NED Equity Plan, indicating a strategic move to align director interests with company performance, potentially impacting stakeholder confidence positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EVN) stock is a Sell with a A$10.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolution Mining stock, see the AU:EVN Stock Forecast page.

Evolution Mining Issues New Securities Under Employee Incentive Scheme

Evolution Mining Limited has announced the issuance of 95,655 ordinary fully paid securities under an employee incentive scheme, which will be quoted on the ASX. This move is part of the company’s ongoing efforts to enhance employee engagement and align their interests with the company’s growth objectives, potentially impacting its operational dynamics and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EVN) stock is a Sell with a A$10.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolution Mining stock, see the AU:EVN Stock Forecast page.

Evolution Mining Issues New Share Rights Under Employee Incentive Scheme

Evolution Mining Limited announced the issuance of 53,971 share rights under an employee incentive scheme. These securities are unquoted and subject to transfer restrictions until the end of the restriction period, reflecting the company’s commitment to employee engagement and retention through equity incentives.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EVN) stock is a Sell with a A$10.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolution Mining stock, see the AU:EVN Stock Forecast page.

Evolution Mining Announces Director’s Interest Change

Evolution Mining Limited has announced a change in the director’s interest, specifically regarding Lawrie Conway’s holdings. The company issued 557,377 performance rights to Mr. Conway under the Evolution Employee Share Option and Performance Rights Plan, which was approved by shareholders. This move reflects the company’s ongoing efforts to align management incentives with shareholder interests and may impact the company’s operational strategies and stakeholder relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EVN) stock is a Sell with a A$10.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolution Mining stock, see the AU:EVN Stock Forecast page.

Evolution Mining Issues Unquoted Equity Securities Under Employee Incentive Scheme

Evolution Mining Limited announced the issuance of 557,377 unquoted equity securities under an employee incentive scheme. These securities, categorized as performance rights, are subject to transfer restrictions and are not quoted on the ASX until these restrictions are lifted. This move is part of the company’s strategy to align employee interests with corporate goals, potentially impacting its operational efficiency and stakeholder engagement.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EVN) stock is a Sell with a A$10.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolution Mining stock, see the AU:EVN Stock Forecast page.

Evolution Mining Reports Record Year and Strategic Initiatives

Evolution Mining’s recent annual general meeting highlighted a successful year, marked by improved safety performance and record dividends, totaling $400 million. The company is well-positioned for future growth, benefiting from high commodity prices and a strong portfolio. Evolution Mining also announced a partnership with the University of Queensland to establish a fellowship aimed at enhancing mining safety and sustainability. Additionally, the company is transitioning the Mt Rawdon site into a pumped hydro power station, reflecting its commitment to innovation and renewable energy.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EVN) stock is a Hold with a A$12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Evolution Mining stock, see the AU:EVN Stock Forecast page.