Evolution Mining Limited (AU:EVN)
ASX:EVN
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Evolution Mining
(Sydney:EVN)
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Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
AU$15.00
▲(13.72% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/13/26
The score is driven primarily by strong fundamentals (growth, margins, cash flow and manageable leverage) and a very constructive earnings update with improved cost guidance and stronger cash/balance sheet position. Technicals are supportive but momentum looks somewhat stretched, while valuation is the main drawback due to the higher P/E and modest dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Cash generation acceleration
A 176% rise in underlying cash flow and operating cash flow >$1.0bn demonstrate materially stronger free cash generation. This durable improvement increases funding for sustaining/expansionary capital, supports dividends and debt reduction, and provides a buffer through commodity cycles.
Negative Factors
Mill capacity constraints
Existing mill constraints at multiple sites limit organic production growth without incremental capital or new high-return feed. This structural bottleneck can cap volume upside, delay scale benefits, and force investment timing trade-offs that influence multi-quarter production and margin trajectories.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation acceleration
A 176% rise in underlying cash flow and operating cash flow >$1.0bn demonstrate materially stronger free cash generation. This durable improvement increases funding for sustaining/expansionary capital, supports dividends and debt reduction, and provides a buffer through commodity cycles.
Read all positive factors
Evolution Mining (EVN) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$26.85B
Dividend Yield1.53%
Average Volume (3M)7.03M
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.3
Beta (1Y)1.35
Revenue Growth35.31%
EPS Growth115.08%
CountryAU
Employees2,000
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryGold
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.38
Shares Outstanding2,031,090,600
10 Day Avg. Volume8,964,585
30 Day Avg. Volume7,029,608
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.15
Price to Book (P/B)3.14
Price to Sales (P/S)3.57
P/FCF Ratio19.67
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$13.97Price Target Upside5.89% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)0.88
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$5.88B
Evolution Mining Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Evolution Mining Limited engages in the exploration, mine development, mine operations, and sale of gold and gold-copper concentrates in Australia and Canada. It also explores for copper and silver deposits. As of June 30, 2022, the company operat...
How the Company Makes Money
Evolution Mining primarily makes money by producing and selling gold (and, at certain operations, copper as a by-product or co-product). Revenue is generated when ore is mined and processed through the company’s plants to produce saleable products...
Evolution Mining Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 13, 2025
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 19, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was strongly positive overall: the company reported substantial improvements in production, a marked acceleration in cash generation (large increases in underlying and reported cash flow), meaningful balance sheet repair (cash balance near $1 billion, gearing down to 6%, no near-term debt), and successful project execution (Cowal OPC ahead of schedule, Mungari commercial). The main negatives were a significant weather-related disruption at Ernest Henry that will modestly reduce FY26 copper and gold volumes, a small uptick in recordable injuries at specific sites, and some mill capacity constraints that limit immediate upside without incremental capital or higher-return feed. Management reiterated disciplined capital allocation, progressive shareholder returns, and continued focus on high-return project opportunities, leaving the tone constructive and confident.Positive Updates
Strong production and low continuing AISC
Produced 191,000 oz gold and 18,000 t copper in the December quarter for continuing operations. All-in sustaining cost (continuing ops) was a low $1,275/oz. Gold production improved 10% and AISC improved 26% versus the prior comparable period.
Negative Updates
Ernest Henry extreme weather event and production impact
A severe rain event (≈300 mm in 24 hours) at Ernest Henry caused water ingress and temporary suspension. Estimated FY26 impact ~7,000–8,000 oz gold and ~4,000–5,000 t copper. Short-term dewatering and remediation underway; plant restart anticipated end of January but some production lost.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong production and low continuing AISC
Produced 191,000 oz gold and 18,000 t copper in the December quarter for continuing operations. All-in sustaining cost (continuing ops) was a low $1,275/oz. Gold production improved 10% and AISC improved 26% versus the prior comparable period.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated FY26 group production guidance of 710,000–780,000 oz gold and 70,000–80,000 tonnes copper (with copper now expected at the low end after Ernest Henry’s extreme rain event, which is estimated to reduce FY26 by ~7,000–8,000 oz gold and ~4,000–5,000 t copper), and updated group all‑in sustaining cost guidance to $1,640–$1,760/oz (a ~6% improvement on original guidance) driven by cost control and higher by‑product credits; cash generation has accelerated materially — underlying group cash flow rose 176% to $541m (~$2,800/oz after normalizing for the FY25 tax payment), reported cash flow was up 110% to $412m, operating cash flow rose 57% to just over $1.0bn and net mine cash flow doubled to $727m — and the company said it is on track to deliver almost $4.0bn of operating cash flow (≈40% above August guidance), to be net cash this year with a cash balance of $967m, no debt until FY29 and gearing down to 6% (from 11% in Sep and 30% two years ago); site highlights cited included Cowal generating $361m operating cash flow at ~$4,500/oz (and $284m net cash), Mungari net mine cash flow of $104m (up 142%) and an annualized mill run‑rate of 4.1 Mt, and Red Lake producing 33,000 oz with $80m net mine cash flow for the quarter.Evolution Mining Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
80
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.11B | 4.35B | 3.22B | 2.23B | 2.06B | 1.86B |
| Gross Profit | 2.17B | 1.56B | 923.26M | 416.20M | 486.60M | 575.21M |
| EBITDA | 2.76B | 2.15B | 1.43B | 847.36M | 934.85M | 899.87M |
| Net Income | 1.33B | 926.17M | 422.27M | 163.51M | 323.32M | 345.26M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 10.02B | 9.64B | 8.82B | 6.75B | 6.63B | 3.96B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 966.49M | 759.63M | 403.30M | 46.15M | 572.43M | 160.06M |
| Total Debt | 1.51B | 1.79B | 2.02B | 1.82B | 1.86B | 636.33M |
| Total Liabilities | 4.39B | 4.68B | 4.68B | 3.46B | 3.38B | 1.42B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.63B | 4.96B | 4.14B | 3.29B | 3.25B | 2.53B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.42B | 790.20M | 363.16M | -103.39M | 107.58M | 319.69M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.38B | 1.97B | 1.28B | 735.28M | 776.68M | 757.01M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.22B | -1.19B | -1.51B | -1.03B | -1.83B | -724.12M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -713.21M | -435.81M | 586.65M | -226.28M | 1.47B | -244.79M |
Evolution Mining Technical Analysis
Neutral
13.19
Price Trends
14.25
Negative
13.36
Negative
11.19
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.20
Negative
47.80
Neutral
70.88
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:EVN, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 13.19 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.96, below the 50-day MA of 14.25, and above the 200-day MA of 11.19, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.20 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.80 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 70.88 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AU:EVN.
Evolution Mining Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | AU$26.85B | 8.35 | 25.07% | 1.53% | 35.31% | 115.08% | |
75 Outperform | AU$5.46B | 4.43 | 27.80% | 0.65% | 30.46% | ― | |
67 Neutral | AU$7.51B | 11.53 | 12.40% | 1.32% | 23.35% | 15.96% | |
67 Neutral | AU$6.11B | 7.97 | 12.35% | 0.46% | 89.86% | -81.65% | |
66 Neutral | AU$34.33B | 13.37 | 10.26% | 2.04% | 30.35% | 102.55% | |
66 Neutral | AU$7.29B | -160.00 | 9.94% | 1.92% | 36.34% | 110.55% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
AU:EVN
Evolution Mining
13.19
5.19
64.83%
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Perseus Mining
5.59
2.21
65.38%
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Northern Star Resources Ltd
23.97
2.70
12.69%
AU:RRL
Regis Resources Limited
7.25
2.89
66.09%
AU:RMS
Ramelius Resources Limited
3.80
1.20
45.99%
AU:WGX
Westgold Resources
6.47
3.43
113.18%
Evolution Mining Corporate Events
Evolution Mining Seeks ASX Quotation for New Dividend Plan Shares
Apr 6, 2026
Evolution Mining Limited has applied for quotation on the ASX of 469,177 new fully paid ordinary shares issued on April 2, 2026 under a dividend or distribution plan. The additional shares marginally increase the company’s listed equity base...
Evolution Mining Reports Lapse of 1.37 Million Performance Rights
Apr 1, 2026
Evolution Mining Limited has notified the market that 1,372,955 performance rights, trading under the ASX code EVNAS, have lapsed as of 31 March 2026. The lapse occurred because the conditions attached to these conditional rights were not satisfie...
Evolution Mining Issues New Unquoted Performance Rights Under Incentive Plan
Apr 1, 2026
Evolution Mining Limited has notified the market of the issue of 689,362 unquoted performance rights under its employee incentive scheme, effective 26 February 2026. These securities are subject to transfer restrictions and will not be quoted on t...
Evolution Mining Sets 15 April Release and Briefing for March Quarter Results
Mar 19, 2026
Evolution Mining will release its quarterly report for the period ended 31 March 2026 to the ASX before market open on 15 April, followed by a results conference call hosted by Managing Director and CEO Lawrie Conway and Chief Operating Officer Ma...
Evolution Mining Sets DRP Price and Confirms Interim Dividend Payout
Mar 12, 2026
Evolution Mining has set the dividend reinvestment plan price for its interim fully franked dividend for the half year to 31 December 2025 at $14.4695 per share, following a five-day volume-weighted average price calculation in early March 2026. S...
Evolution Mining Confirms DRP Price for December 2025 Half‑Year Dividend
Mar 12, 2026
Evolution Mining Limited, an Australian gold producer listed as EVN on the ASX, operates a portfolio of gold assets aimed at delivering sustainable returns to shareholders. Its ordinary fully paid shares are the primary vehicle through which inves...
Evolution Mining Director Andrea Hall Sells Small Parcel of Shares
Mar 1, 2026
Evolution Mining director Andrea Hall has adjusted her shareholding in the company, disposing of 10,000 fully paid ordinary shares in an on-market transaction on 27 February 2026. Following the sale at an aggregate price of $16.6481 per share, Hal...
Evolution Mining Clarifies Use of Non‑IFRS Metrics in Investor Disclosure
Feb 23, 2026
Evolution Mining has released a presentation approved by its chair outlining the company’s positioning as a premier global gold producer and clarifying its approach to financial and operational disclosure. The document underscores that all p...
Evolution Mining Declares AUD 0.20 Interim Dividend
Feb 10, 2026
Evolution Mining Limited has declared an ordinary dividend of AUD 0.20 per fully paid share for the six-month period ended 31 December 2025, with an ex-dividend date of 3 March 2026 and a record date of 4 March 2026. The dividend is scheduled to b...
Evolution Mining outlines 2026 half-year results and use of non-IFRS metrics
Feb 10, 2026
Evolution Mining has released its 2026 half-year financial results presentation, led by managing director and CEO Lawrie Conway, CFO Fran Summerhayes and CTO Nancy Guay. The update outlines financial metrics, production performance and cost measur...
Evolution Mining Reshapes Triple Flag Streaming Deal to Unlock Northparkes Gold Growth
Feb 10, 2026
Evolution Mining has amended and restated its metal purchase and sale agreement for the Northparkes operation with Triple Flag, securing an additional A$120 million refundable upfront deposit timed to support development of the E22 block cave. The...
Evolution Mining Approves Portfolio Growth Projects to Lift Returns
Feb 10, 2026
Evolution Mining’s board has approved a suite of growth projects aimed at lifting returns across its portfolio, highlighted by a A$545 million investment to develop the E22 block cave at Northparkes into a long-life, low-cost bulk undergroun...
Evolution Mining Posts Record Half-Year Profit and Triples Interim Dividend
Feb 10, 2026
Evolution Mining reported a record statutory net profit of $767 million for the half year to 31 December 2025, driven by strong operational discipline, higher metal prices and robust cash generation. Underlying net profit more than doubled to $785...
Evolution Mining posts record half-year profit and lifts dividends on strong cash flows
Feb 10, 2026
Evolution Mining reported a record half-year statutory net profit after tax of A$766.6 million for the period ended 31 December 2025, more than doubling the prior year, as revenue climbed 37% to A$2.79 billion and underlying EBITDA jumped 57%. Ear...
Evolution Mining Sets Date for Half-Year Results and Investor Briefing
Jan 28, 2026
Evolution Mining will release its financial report for the half year ended 31 December 2025 to the ASX before market open on 11 February 2026 and will host a results conference call at 10:30am Sydney time on the same day. The call, led by Managing...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.