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Evolution Mining
(Sydney:EVN)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
AU$11.50
â–²(1.86% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/18/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance and a very constructive earnings call (cash flow acceleration, improved cost outlook, and balance sheet strengthening). These positives are moderated by weak technical signals (price below key moving averages with negative MACD) and only moderate valuation support (mid-teens P/E with ~3.1% yield).
Positive Factors
Robust cash generation
Sustained, large-scale cash generation materially increases the company’s funding runway for sustaining and growth capex, dividends and opportunistic M&A. Strong operating cash flow conversion underpins financial resilience across cycles and reduces reliance on external financing.
Negative Factors
Weather and operational disruption risk
Exposure to extreme weather can cause meaningful, multi‑month production losses and remediation costs. Recurring climate‑related disruptions are a structural operational risk that can dent realized volumes, by‑product receipts and cash flow predictability over a multi‑month horizon.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Robust cash generation
Sustained, large-scale cash generation materially increases the company’s funding runway for sustaining and growth capex, dividends and opportunistic M&A. Strong operating cash flow conversion underpins financial resilience across cycles and reduces reliance on external financing.
Read all positive factors
Evolution Mining (EVN) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$22.89B
Dividend Yield2.89%
Average Volume (3M)7.03M
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.1
Beta (1Y)1.43
Revenue Growth30.82%
EPS Growth90.19%
CountryAU
Employees2,000
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryGold
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.66
Shares Outstanding2,031,090,600
10 Day Avg. Volume8,964,585
30 Day Avg. Volume7,029,608
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.15
Price to Book (P/B)3.14
Price to Sales (P/S)3.57
P/FCF Ratio19.67
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$12.75Price Target Upside12.93% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)0.87
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$5.78B
Evolution Mining Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Based in Sydney, Australia, Evolution Mining Limited is a company primarily focused on the discovery, development, operation, and commercialization of gold and gold-copper concentrates throughout Australia and Canada. The firm also actively seeks ...
How the Company Makes Money
Evolution Mining primarily makes money by producing and selling gold, with additional revenue from silver by-products where applicable. Its main revenue stream is the sale of produced metal (typically gold doré and/or refined bullion) to third-par...
Evolution Mining Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 13, 2025
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 19, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was strongly positive overall: the company reported substantial improvements in production, a marked acceleration in cash generation (large increases in underlying and reported cash flow), meaningful balance sheet repair (cash balance near $1 billion, gearing down to 6%, no near-term debt), and successful project execution (Cowal OPC ahead of schedule, Mungari commercial). The main negatives were a significant weather-related disruption at Ernest Henry that will modestly reduce FY26 copper and gold volumes, a small uptick in recordable injuries at specific sites, and some mill capacity constraints that limit immediate upside without incremental capital or higher-return feed. Management reiterated disciplined capital allocation, progressive shareholder returns, and continued focus on high-return project opportunities, leaving the tone constructive and confident.Positive Updates
Strong production and low continuing AISC
Produced 191,000 oz gold and 18,000 t copper in the December quarter for continuing operations. All-in sustaining cost (continuing ops) was a low $1,275/oz. Gold production improved 10% and AISC improved 26% versus the prior comparable period.
Negative Updates
Ernest Henry extreme weather event and production impact
A severe rain event (≈300 mm in 24 hours) at Ernest Henry caused water ingress and temporary suspension. Estimated FY26 impact ~7,000–8,000 oz gold and ~4,000–5,000 t copper. Short-term dewatering and remediation underway; plant restart anticipated end of January but some production lost.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong production and low continuing AISC
Produced 191,000 oz gold and 18,000 t copper in the December quarter for continuing operations. All-in sustaining cost (continuing ops) was a low $1,275/oz. Gold production improved 10% and AISC improved 26% versus the prior comparable period.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated FY26 group production guidance of 710,000–780,000 oz gold and 70,000–80,000 tonnes copper (with copper now expected at the low end after Ernest Henry’s extreme rain event, which is estimated to reduce FY26 by ~7,000–8,000 oz gold and ~4,000–5,000 t copper), and updated group all‑in sustaining cost guidance to $1,640–$1,760/oz (a ~6% improvement on original guidance) driven by cost control and higher by‑product credits; cash generation has accelerated materially — underlying group cash flow rose 176% to $541m (~$2,800/oz after normalizing for the FY25 tax payment), reported cash flow was up 110% to $412m, operating cash flow rose 57% to just over $1.0bn and net mine cash flow doubled to $727m — and the company said it is on track to deliver almost $4.0bn of operating cash flow (≈40% above August guidance), to be net cash this year with a cash balance of $967m, no debt until FY29 and gearing down to 6% (from 11% in Sep and 30% two years ago); site highlights cited included Cowal generating $361m operating cash flow at ~$4,500/oz (and $284m net cash), Mungari net mine cash flow of $104m (up 142%) and an annualized mill run‑rate of 4.1 Mt, and Red Lake producing 33,000 oz with $80m net mine cash flow for the quarter.Evolution Mining Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
80
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.11B | 4.35B | 3.22B | 2.23B | 2.06B | 1.86B |
| Gross Profit | 2.17B | 1.56B | 923.26M | 416.20M | 486.60M | 575.21M |
| EBITDA | 2.76B | 2.15B | 1.43B | 847.36M | 934.85M | 899.87M |
| Net Income | 1.33B | 926.17M | 422.27M | 163.51M | 323.32M | 345.26M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 10.02B | 9.64B | 8.82B | 6.75B | 6.63B | 3.96B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 966.49M | 759.63M | 403.30M | 46.15M | 572.43M | 160.06M |
| Total Debt | 1.51B | 1.79B | 2.02B | 1.82B | 1.86B | 636.33M |
| Total Liabilities | 4.39B | 4.68B | 4.68B | 3.46B | 3.38B | 1.42B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.63B | 4.96B | 4.14B | 3.29B | 3.25B | 2.53B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.42B | 790.20M | 363.16M | -103.39M | 107.58M | 319.69M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.38B | 1.97B | 1.28B | 735.28M | 776.68M | 757.01M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.22B | -1.19B | -1.51B | -1.03B | -1.83B | -724.12M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -713.21M | -435.81M | 586.65M | -226.28M | 1.47B | -244.79M |
Evolution Mining Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | AU$4.61B | 9.37 | 27.80% | 3.29% | 31.42% | ― | |
70 Outperform | AU$22.89B | 17.08 | 25.07% | 2.89% | 30.82% | 90.19% | |
67 Neutral | AU$6.44B | 17.74 | 12.39% | 2.08% | 16.69% | 3.17% | |
67 Neutral | AU$4.47B | 17.36 | 12.35% | 0.65% | 101.97% | 237.66% | |
66 Neutral | AU$28.34B | 16.86 | 10.26% | 2.74% | 25.58% | 43.29% | |
66 Neutral | AU$5.76B | 12.03 | 9.94% | 2.72% | 13.34% | -15.96% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
AU:EVN
Evolution Mining
13.00
5.69
77.86%
AU:PRU
Perseus Mining
5.25
1.77
50.95%
AU:NST
Northern Star Resources Ltd
22.19
5.20
30.61%
AU:RRL
Regis Resources Limited
7.05
2.84
67.46%
AU:RMS
Ramelius Resources Limited
3.48
0.74
27.01%
AU:WGX
Westgold Resources
5.44
2.56
89.15%
Evolution Mining Corporate Events
Evolution Mining Plans New Share Placement on ASX
Jul 27, 2026
Evolution Mining Limited, an Australian gold miner listed on the ASX as EVN, operates a portfolio of gold assets supplying bullion and related products to global and local markets. The company relies on public equity issuance and capital markets t...
Evolution Mining to buy Carnaby Resources, boosting Ernest Henry copper growth
Jul 26, 2026
Evolution Mining has agreed to acquire Carnaby Resources via a Scheme of Arrangement, valuing the ASX-listed explorer at about $213 million and granting Carnaby shareholders 0.0682 Evolution shares for each Carnaby share. The deal delivers the adv...
Evolution Mining moves to acquire Carnaby Resources in A$213m scheme
Jul 26, 2026
Evolution Mining has agreed to acquire 100% of Carnaby Resources via a court-approved scheme of arrangement, offering 0.0682 Evolution shares for each Carnaby share, implying a value of A$0.77 per Carnaby share and an equity valuation of about A$2...
Evolution Mining Reports Lapse of 231,999 Performance Rights
Jul 1, 2026
Evolution Mining has notified the market that 231,999 performance rights, trading under the ASX code EVNAS, have lapsed. The cessation results from the specified conditions attached to these conditional rights not being met, or becoming incapable ...
Evolution Mining sets July 15 call to unveil June quarter results
Jun 29, 2026
Evolution Mining will release its quarterly report for the period ended 30 June 2026 to the ASX before market open on 15 July, underscoring ongoing transparency around production and costs. Managing director and chief executive officer Lawrie Conw...
Evolution Mining outlines growth ambitions and flags risks at Macquarie conference
May 4, 2026
Evolution Mining has released a presentation for the Macquarie Australia Conference 2026 outlining its ambition to be a premier global gold company under the leadership of Managing Director and CEO Lawrie Conway. The company emphasises that its ma...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.