Genesis Minerals Limited (AU:GMD)
ASX:GMD
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Genesis Minerals Limited
(Sydney:GMD)
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
AU$6.50
▲(4.00% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/19/26
Overall score is driven by very strong financial performance (profitability and cash-flow strength with low leverage) and a positive earnings update with maintained guidance and a strengthened balance sheet. The score is tempered by a relatively expensive valuation (P/E 37.71) and mixed near-term technicals (below 20-day average with slightly negative MACD).
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation and net cash position
A large cash balance (A$404m) and no bank debt materially improve financial flexibility and lower refinancing risk. This durable liquidity supports funding of growth capex, exploration and tax/stamp duty outflows, enabling execution of multi-year development plans without immediate external financing.
Negative Factors
Higher near-term growth capital requirement
Bringing forward and increasing growth capex materially raises near-term cash outflows and execution intensity. Even with strong cash, sustained higher spending elevates program risk, can delay free cash flow recovery, and increases sensitivity to project delays or cost overruns over the 2–6 month planning horizon.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation and net cash position
A large cash balance (A$404m) and no bank debt materially improve financial flexibility and lower refinancing risk. This durable liquidity supports funding of growth capex, exploration and tax/stamp duty outflows, enabling execution of multi-year development plans without immediate external financing.
Read all positive factors
Genesis Minerals Limited (GMD) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$7.14B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)8.46M
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.7
Beta (1Y)1.63
Revenue Growth109.79%
EPS Growth158.18%
CountryAU
Employees331
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryGold
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.21
Shares Outstanding1,142,328,200
10 Day Avg. Volume6,589,690
30 Day Avg. Volume8,460,026
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.13
Price to Book (P/B)3.74
Price to Sales (P/S)5.10
P/FCF Ratio19.74
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$9.39Price Target Upside50.24% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)0.52
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$1.75B
Genesis Minerals Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Genesis Minerals Limited engages in the exploration and development of gold deposits in Western Australia. The company owns 100% interests in the Leonora Gold project located to the north of Kalgoorlie. Genesis Minerals Limited was incorporated in...
How the Company Makes Money
Genesis Minerals’ potential revenue model is primarily tied to the gold mining value chain. If/when it is in production, the company would typically make money by extracting gold-bearing ore from its deposits, processing that ore to produce gold (...
Genesis Minerals Limited Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 18, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Sep 24, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a strongly positive operational and financial performance: record consecutive production, strong cash generation (AUD 231M mine operating cash flow; AUD 404M cash & investments), NPAT materially higher (estimated +300% YoY), debt fully repaid, and multiple development milestones (Tower Hill approvals, rail agreements, and Indigenous mining agreements). Offsetting items include higher near-term growth capital (revised to AUD 220-240M), ramp-up and grade pressure at Ulysses while development ore dominates, lower recoveries from third-party Laverton feed, contractor transition risk with Byrnecut mobilizing, and upcoming cash outflows for stamp duty and tax. Overall, the positive operational momentum, strong balance sheet and delivered milestones outweigh the execution and near-term capital/timing risks.Positive Updates
Record and Growing Production
Consecutive quarter of record gold production at ~74,000 ounces in the December quarter; first half production of just over 147,000 ounces, positioning the company to meet FY '26 guidance of 260,000-290,000 ounces.
Negative Updates
Increased Growth Capital Requirement
Full year growth capital outlook revised up to AUD 220-240 million (from AUD 150-170 million) as capital for Tower Hill has been brought forward into FY '26 — higher near-term cash outflow and capital intensity despite strong cash position.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record and Growing Production
Consecutive quarter of record gold production at ~74,000 ounces in the December quarter; first half production of just over 147,000 ounces, positioning the company to meet FY '26 guidance of 260,000-290,000 ounces.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Genesis maintained FY‑26 production guidance of 260,000–290,000 oz and AISC guidance of A$2,500–2,700/oz (at the half‑way mark it has produced just over 147,000 oz YTD at AISC A$2,578/oz), with the December quarter delivering ~74,000 oz at AISC A$2,635/oz; the quarter sold 71,000 oz at A$6,057/oz generating A$430m in sales, A$231m mine operating cash flow and A$167m net mine cash flow after A$64m of growth spend. Cash and investments rose to A$404m (underlying cash build >A$200m) with nil bank debt after fully repaying A$100m corporate debt, growth capital for FY‑26 was revised up to A$220–240m (from A$150–170m), and group stockpiles closed at 1.4Mt @1.2 g/t (≈53,000 oz). Operational metrics included Leonora UG 289,000 t @4.6 g/t (42,783 oz), Gwalia ~178,000 t @5.6 g/t (~32,000 oz), Ulysses 111,000 t @2.9 g/t (10,500 oz), Leonora mill 365,000 t @4.0 g/t at 92.8% recovery (~43,000 oz), Laverton mill 759,000 t @1.5 g/t at 83.8% recovery (~31,000 oz) (38% third‑party feed at 79.2% recovery; Genesis ore recovery 91.2%), total open‑pit movement >6Mt and Laverton movement 3.5Mt, Jupiter mined 133,000 t @0.7 g/t (~3,000 oz), exploration spend A$11.9m, estimated H1 NPAT A$235–245m, stamp duty A$13m due in June, and likely commencement of income tax installments—Tower Hill remains on track (original FY‑28 first ore timing may be able to be brought forward) while mill expansion studies and the ASPIRE 400 long‑term sizing are being finalised.Genesis Minerals Limited Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
Cash Flow
90
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.40B | 920.14M | 438.59M | 76.96M | 0.00 | 79.98K |
| Gross Profit | 619.04M | 504.04M | 91.85M | -14.10M | -76.23K | 40.47K |
| EBITDA | 723.61M | 463.33M | 119.44M | -91.61M | -46.28M | -16.31M |
| Net Income | 399.41M | 221.17M | 84.00M | -111.77M | -46.35M | -16.33M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.01B | 1.80B | 1.21B | 1.02B | 38.74M | 34.67M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 340.99M | 239.53M | 171.29M | 181.54M | 16.12M | 10.97M |
| Total Debt | 108.11M | 200.89M | 45.20M | 11.35M | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Total Liabilities | 494.46M | 544.39M | 217.65M | 164.67M | 10.10M | 10.76M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.51B | 1.25B | 991.38M | 838.24M | 28.64M | 23.91M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 434.77M | 237.65M | -28.31M | -52.90M | -17.91M | -24.91M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 667.32M | 420.70M | 136.24M | -37.58M | -16.84M | -14.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -512.40M | -442.69M | -177.06M | -360.30M | -1.07M | -10.91M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -15.94M | 90.23M | 30.57M | 563.30M | 23.07M | 24.73M |
Genesis Minerals Limited Technical Analysis
Positive
6.25
Price Trends
6.88
Negative
6.83
Negative
5.89
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.32
Negative
49.12
Neutral
58.56
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:GMD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.25 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.14, below the 50-day MA of 6.88, and above the 200-day MA of 5.89, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.32 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.12 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.56 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:GMD.
Genesis Minerals Limited Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | AU$5.40B | 4.43 | 27.80% | 0.65% | 30.46% | ― | |
73 Outperform | AU$7.14B | 8.70 | 28.87% | ― | 109.79% | 158.18% | |
67 Neutral | AU$7.32B | 11.53 | 12.40% | 1.32% | 23.35% | 15.96% | |
67 Neutral | AU$5.34B | 12.56 | 22.68% | ― | 43.49% | 60.31% | |
66 Neutral | AU$7.42B | -160.00 | 9.94% | 1.92% | 36.34% | 110.55% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
AU:GMD
Genesis Minerals Limited
6.25
2.56
69.38%
AU:PRU
Perseus Mining
5.43
2.20
67.96%
AU:RRL
Regis Resources Limited
7.13
3.33
87.58%
AU:RMS
Ramelius Resources Limited
3.88
1.63
72.37%
AU:CMM
Capricorn Metals Ltd
11.70
3.78
47.80%
Genesis Minerals Limited Corporate Events
GR Engineering Named Preferred EPC Contractor for $225m Tower Hill Gold Project
Feb 22, 2026
GR Engineering Services has been appointed preferred contractor by Genesis Minerals for the engineering, procurement and construction of a ~4 Mtpa gold processing facility at the Tower Hill Gold Project near Leonora in Western Australia. The EPC c...
Genesis outlines ambitious ASPIRE 500 gold production vision at BMO conference
Feb 22, 2026
Genesis Minerals used its presentation at the BMO Global Metals, Mining Critical Minerals Conference in Miami to outline its “ASPIRE 500” vision, an aspirational goal of lifting gold output to 500,000 ounces a year from its Leonora an...
Genesis Minerals Issues 51,000 Performance Rights Under Employee Incentive Plan
Feb 2, 2026
Genesis Minerals Limited has issued 51,000 unquoted performance rights under its employee incentive scheme, effective 2 February 2026. The new securities, which are subject to transfer restrictions and will not be quoted on the ASX until those res...
Genesis Minerals Posts Record Gold Output and Cash Build as Tower Hill Project Accelerates
Jan 29, 2026
Genesis Minerals reported record quarterly gold production of 74,261 ounces in the December 2025 quarter and 147,139 ounces for the half year, with all-in sustaining costs remaining tightly controlled despite broader industry cost pressures. Stron...
Genesis Minerals Reshapes Leadership to Drive Next Growth Phase
Jan 29, 2026
Genesis Minerals has overhauled its leadership structure to support its next phase of rapid growth, promoting Chief Operating Officer Matthew Nixon to Chief Executive Officer, elevating Managing Director Raleigh Finlayson to Executive Chair, and t...
Genesis Minerals Sets Date and Teleconference for December Quarter Update
Jan 20, 2026
Genesis Minerals will release its December 2025 Quarterly Report on 29 January 2026, with the document to be published on the ASX announcements platform and the company’s website. The company will host a teleconference and live audio stream ...
Genesis Minerals Reports Lapse of Incentive Securities, Trimming Potential Dilution
Jan 12, 2026
Genesis Minerals Limited has notified the market that a total of 388,196 retention and performance rights have lapsed after the conditions attached to those securities were not satisfied or became incapable of being met as of 8 January 2026. The c...
BlackRock Ceases to Be Substantial Shareholder in Genesis Minerals
Jan 1, 2026
BlackRock Group, including BlackRock Inc. and its relevant subsidiaries, has lodged a statutory Form 605 notice indicating it has ceased to be a substantial shareholder in Genesis Minerals Limited. The filing, made under section 671B of the Corpor...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.