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Genesis Minerals Limited (AU:GMD)
ASX:GMD

Genesis Minerals Limited (GMD) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:GMD

Genesis Minerals Limited

(Sydney:GMD)

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Outperform 74 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
AU$9.50
▲(12.83% Upside)
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance, led by excellent cash flow generation and improved profitability, supported by a clear uptrend in technicals. These positives are partly offset by a rich valuation (P/E 43) and stretched momentum indicators (RSI/Stoch) that raise near-term risk.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Exceptional free cash flow growth (797.1%) and an operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.90 signal durable cash-generation improvements. This strengthens the company’s ability to fund exploration and development internally, reduces reliance on markets, and provides resilience through commodity cycles.
Robust margins and revenue growth
Sustained revenue growth (63.9%) alongside high gross (54.8%) and net (24.0%) margins indicates strong project economics and cost control. For a gold developer, durable margins improve the ability to self-fund development, maintain profitability across price cycles, and support reinvestment into resources.
Conservative balance sheet
A low debt-to-equity ratio (0.16) combined with a strong ROE (17.6%) reflects conservative leverage and efficient capital use. This balance sheet flexibility reduces refinancing risk, enables capital allocation to projects and exploration, and improves resilience to downturns in the gold cycle.
Negative Factors
Pre-production revenue dependency
Genesis’s business model relies on progressing deposits to production; before sustained output it lacks material operating revenue. That creates persistent execution and timing risk, since long-term returns depend on successful development, permitting, and commissioning of mines.
Asset concentration in Laverton
Operations and exploration concentrated in the Laverton district concentrate geological, operational and regulatory risk. Limited geographic and asset diversification means local permitting, infrastructure, or orebody performance issues could disproportionately delay or impair production plans and cash flow.
Ongoing external financing needs
The company routinely funds pre-production activities via external financing (equity or debt). Persistent reliance on capital markets can dilute shareholders or increase leverage, constrain strategic flexibility, and raise execution risk if market access tightens during critical development phases.

Genesis Minerals Limited (GMD) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Genesis Minerals Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionGenesis Minerals Limited engages in the exploration and development of gold deposits in Western Australia. The company owns 100% interests in the Leonora Gold project located to the north of Kalgoorlie. Genesis Minerals Limited was incorporated in 2007 and is based in Perth, Australia.
How the Company Makes MoneyGenesis Minerals Limited generates revenue primarily through the exploration and development of its mining projects, with a focus on gold production. The company earns money by discovering and proving mineral deposits, which are then developed into operational mines. Revenue streams include the sale of extracted minerals, as well as potential joint ventures and partnerships with larger mining companies that may provide funding and resources for exploration activities. Additionally, strategic partnerships and off-take agreements with buyers of gold and other minerals can provide further financial stability and revenue generation for the company.

Genesis Minerals Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Strong overall fundamentals: Income Statement (85) shows rapid revenue growth (63.9%) with solid profitability (gross margin 54.8%, net margin 24.0%); Balance Sheet (75) is conservatively leveraged (debt-to-equity 0.16) with strong ROE (17.6%); Cash Flow (90) is a key strength with exceptional free cash flow growth (797.1%) and strong cash conversion (operating cash flow to net income 1.90).
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Genesis Minerals Limited has shown impressive revenue growth of 63.9% in the latest annual report, with a strong gross profit margin of 54.8% and a net profit margin of 24.0%. The company has significantly improved its profitability metrics compared to previous years, indicating a robust financial performance in the gold industry.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a healthy financial position with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.16, suggesting conservative leverage. The return on equity is strong at 17.6%, indicating efficient use of equity capital. However, the equity ratio stands at 69.7%, which is solid but leaves room for improvement in asset utilization.
Cash Flow
90
Very Positive
The cash flow statement shows a remarkable free cash flow growth rate of 797.1%, highlighting significant improvements in cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.90 indicates strong cash conversion efficiency, and the free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.07 suggests effective cash management.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue920.14M920.14M438.59M76.96M0.0079.98K
Gross Profit358.18M504.04M91.85M-14.10M-76.23K40.47K
EBITDA458.18M463.33M119.44M-91.61M-46.28M-16.31M
Net Income221.17M221.17M84.00M-111.77M-46.35M-16.33M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.80B1.80B1.21B1.02B38.74M34.67M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments239.53M239.53M171.29M181.54M16.12M10.97M
Total Debt200.89M200.89M45.20M11.35M0.000.00
Total Liabilities544.39M544.39M217.65M164.67M10.10M10.76M
Stockholders Equity1.25B1.25B991.38M838.24M28.64M23.91M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow243.37M237.65M-28.31M-52.90M-17.91M-24.91M
Operating Cash Flow420.70M420.70M136.24M-37.58M-16.84M-14.00M
Investing Cash Flow-442.69M-442.69M-177.06M-360.30M-1.07M-10.91M
Financing Cash Flow90.23M90.23M30.57M563.30M23.07M24.73M

Genesis Minerals Limited Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price8.42
Price Trends
50DMA
7.03
Positive
100DMA
6.47
Positive
200DMA
5.36
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.27
Negative
RSI
51.93
Neutral
STOCH
75.30
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:GMD, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 8.42 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.61, above the 50-day MA of 7.03, and above the 200-day MA of 5.36, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.27 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.93 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 75.30 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AU:GMD.

Genesis Minerals Limited Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
81
Outperform
AU$9.57B12.0928.58%1.92%36.34%110.55%
79
Outperform
C$8.69B15.4121.17%1.32%23.35%15.96%
78
Outperform
$6.44B25.2516.68%0.65%30.46%
75
Outperform
AU$7.29B43.2827.56%43.49%60.31%
74
Outperform
AU$9.29B43.0319.70%109.79%158.18%
61
Neutral
$10.43B7.12-0.05%2.87%2.86%-36.73%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:GMD
Genesis Minerals Limited
8.42
5.23
163.95%
AU:PRU
Perseus Mining
6.40
3.59
127.60%
AU:RRL
Regis Resources Limited
8.52
5.49
181.19%
AU:RMS
Ramelius Resources Limited
5.04
2.64
109.83%
AU:CMM
Capricorn Metals Ltd
16.05
8.33
107.90%

Genesis Minerals Limited Corporate Events

Genesis Minerals Posts Record Gold Output and Cash Build as Tower Hill Project Accelerates
Jan 29, 2026

Genesis Minerals reported record quarterly gold production of 74,261 ounces in the December 2025 quarter and 147,139 ounces for the half year, with all-in sustaining costs remaining tightly controlled despite broader industry cost pressures. Strong operating performance and disciplined spending drove a A$216.5 million underlying cash build, lifting cash and equivalents to A$403.6 million and leaving the company debt-free, while unaudited half-year NPAT is expected at A$235–245 million. Development of the flagship Tower Hill project is running ahead of schedule, with key approvals, rail agreements and a mining agreement with the Darlot People secured, major long-lead items ordered, and site establishment works set to begin in the March quarter. In line with its accelerated ASPIRE 400 growth strategy, Genesis has brought forward project development and lifted FY26 growth capital guidance to A$220–240 million, maintaining a FY26 production outlook of 260,000–290,000 ounces and planning an updated long-term plan in the June half of 2026 that will detail processing expansions, including Tower Hill ore at an expanded Leonora mill.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GMD) stock is a Buy with a A$9.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Genesis Minerals Limited stock, see the AU:GMD Stock Forecast page.

Genesis Minerals Reshapes Leadership to Drive Next Growth Phase
Jan 29, 2026

Genesis Minerals has overhauled its leadership structure to support its next phase of rapid growth, promoting Chief Operating Officer Matthew Nixon to Chief Executive Officer, elevating Managing Director Raleigh Finlayson to Executive Chair, and transitioning Executive Director Duncan Coutts to Executive Director – Operations. The reshuffle, which also sees long-serving Chair Tony Kiernan move into a Lead Independent Director role, is designed to strengthen day-to-day operational oversight, accelerate development of key assets such as the Tower Hill mine, and free Finlayson to focus on long-term strategy, including a strategic review of the Bardoc project, as Genesis seeks to consolidate its recent expansion and reinforce its position as a major ASX100 gold producer.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GMD) stock is a Buy with a A$9.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Genesis Minerals Limited stock, see the AU:GMD Stock Forecast page.

Genesis Minerals Sets Date and Teleconference for December Quarter Update
Jan 20, 2026

Genesis Minerals will release its December 2025 Quarterly Report on 29 January 2026, with the document to be published on the ASX announcements platform and the company’s website. The company will host a teleconference and live audio stream on the same day at 8:00am AWST / 11:00am AEDT, underscoring its ongoing focus on timely market disclosure and direct engagement with investors and media ahead of what may be a closely watched operational and financial update.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GMD) stock is a Buy with a A$8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Genesis Minerals Limited stock, see the AU:GMD Stock Forecast page.

Genesis Minerals Reports Lapse of Incentive Securities, Trimming Potential Dilution
Jan 12, 2026

Genesis Minerals Limited has notified the market that a total of 388,196 retention and performance rights have lapsed after the conditions attached to those securities were not satisfied or became incapable of being met as of 8 January 2026. The cessation of these conditional rights, disclosed in an Appendix 3H filing, results in a modest reduction in potential future dilution for existing shareholders and signals that certain performance or retention hurdles within the company’s incentive schemes were not achieved, which may prompt investor scrutiny of management performance metrics and alignment of incentives with shareholder outcomes.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GMD) stock is a Hold with a A$7.20 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Genesis Minerals Limited stock, see the AU:GMD Stock Forecast page.

BlackRock Ceases to Be Substantial Shareholder in Genesis Minerals
Jan 1, 2026

BlackRock Group, including BlackRock Inc. and its relevant subsidiaries, has lodged a statutory Form 605 notice indicating it has ceased to be a substantial shareholder in Genesis Minerals Limited. The filing, made under section 671B of the Corporations Act 2001 and signed by an authorised signatory of BlackRock Investment Management (Australia) Limited, records that BlackRock’s relevant interest in Genesis’s voting securities has fallen below the substantial holding threshold, signalling a reduction in major institutional ownership on the company’s share register.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GMD) stock is a Buy with a A$8.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Genesis Minerals Limited stock, see the AU:GMD Stock Forecast page.

Genesis Minerals Director Sells Shares to Cover Tax Liabilities
Dec 5, 2025

Genesis Minerals Limited announced a change in the shareholdings of its Non-Executive Director, Mr. Michael Bowen, who sold 645,487 ordinary shares. The proceeds from this sale will primarily be used to cover tax liabilities arising from the exercise of options. This transaction reflects routine financial management by a company director and does not indicate any strategic shift or operational impact for Genesis Minerals.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GMD) stock is a Buy with a A$8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Genesis Minerals Limited stock, see the AU:GMD Stock Forecast page.

Genesis Minerals Director Acquires Share Rights in Fee Sacrifice Scheme
Dec 3, 2025

Genesis Minerals Limited announced a change in the interests of its director, Jane Macey, who acquired 6,869 share rights through the NED Fee Sacrifice Scheme. This move, approved by shareholders, reflects the company’s ongoing efforts to align director compensation with company performance, potentially impacting its governance and stakeholder relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GMD) stock is a Buy with a A$8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Genesis Minerals Limited stock, see the AU:GMD Stock Forecast page.

Genesis Minerals Limited Announces Quotation of New Securities
Nov 27, 2025

Genesis Minerals Limited has announced the quotation of 445,558 fully paid ordinary securities on the Australian Securities Exchange, effective November 27, 2025. This move is part of the company’s strategy to enhance its financial flexibility and potentially support its ongoing exploration and development activities, which could have significant implications for its market positioning and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GMD) stock is a Buy with a A$7.90 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Genesis Minerals Limited stock, see the AU:GMD Stock Forecast page.

Genesis Minerals Secures Rail Agreements to Advance Tower Hill Development
Nov 21, 2025

Genesis Minerals Limited has signed rail agreements with key stakeholders, including the Public Transport Authority of Western Australia, Arc Infrastructure, and Aurizon, to facilitate the development of the Tower Hill open pit. This project, with a reserve of 1Moz, is expected to enhance the company’s operations by allowing for the expansion of the Leonora mill and the development of the Tower Hill deposit. The agreements will also lead to the relocation of the Leonora rail terminal, reducing heavy vehicle movements through the town and improving safety. The total cost for the rail shortening project is estimated at A$80 million, funded by Genesis’ operating cash flows and existing reserves. The project is anticipated to bring significant benefits to both Genesis and the Leonora community, with mine development on track for FY27 and first ore expected in FY28.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GMD) stock is a Buy with a A$8.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Genesis Minerals Limited stock, see the AU:GMD Stock Forecast page.

Genesis Minerals Secures Shareholder Approval for Key Resolutions
Nov 13, 2025

Genesis Minerals Limited announced that all resolutions proposed at its Annual General Meeting were successfully passed. This outcome reflects strong shareholder support for the company’s strategic decisions, including the re-election of directors and the issuance of share rights, which are expected to positively impact the company’s governance and operational strategies.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GMD) stock is a Buy with a A$5.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Genesis Minerals Limited stock, see the AU:GMD Stock Forecast page.

Genesis Minerals Boosts Reserves to 3.7Moz, Strengthening Growth Strategy
Nov 13, 2025

Genesis Minerals Limited has announced significant developments in its exploration and resource estimates, underpinning its ASPIRE 400 strategy. The company has increased its reserves to 3.7 million ounces, which supports its growth strategy and positions it for future expansion in the gold mining sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GMD) stock is a Buy with a A$5.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Genesis Minerals Limited stock, see the AU:GMD Stock Forecast page.

Genesis Minerals Achieves Record Gold Production and Revenue Growth in FY25
Nov 13, 2025

Genesis Minerals Limited reported a successful fiscal year 2025, marked by a significant increase in gold production and revenue, driven by strong operational performance and favorable gold prices. The company has entered the ASX100 index and is poised for further growth with its ‘ASPIRE 400’ strategy, supported by recent acquisitions and strategic asset developments, positioning it for long-term sustainability and efficiency improvements.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GMD) stock is a Buy with a A$5.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Genesis Minerals Limited stock, see the AU:GMD Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jan 30, 2026