Genesis Minerals Limited (GMD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$9.29B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 8.46M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 23.2
• Beta (1Y): 1.36
• Revenue Growth: 109.79%
• EPS Growth: 158.18%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 331
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Gold
• EPS (TTM): 0.21
• Shares Outstanding: 1,142,328,200
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 6,589,690
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 8,460,026
• PEG Ratio: 0.13
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.74
• Price to Sales (P/S): 5.10
• P/FCF Ratio: 19.74
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: AU$9.40
• Price Target Upside: 15.56% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.53
• Revenue Forecast (FY): AU$1.77B

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: AU$9.00 ▲(10.70% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/19/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/19/26

Overall score is driven by very strong financial performance (profitability and cash-flow strength with low leverage) and a positive earnings update with maintained guidance and a strengthened balance sheet. The score is tempered by a relatively expensive valuation (P/E 37.71) and mixed near-term technicals (below 20-day average with slightly negative MACD).

Positive Factors

Cash generation

Exceptional free cash flow growth and strong cash conversion indicate the business now generates durable internal funding to support reinvestment, debt reduction and project funding. This improves financial flexibility and reduces reliance on external capital over the next 2–6 months.

Balance sheet strength

A large cash buffer and zero bank debt materially lower refinancing and liquidity risk, allowing management to front-load growth capex while retaining a strong liquidity cushion. This positions the firm to execute projects and absorb tax/stamp duty outflows without near-term solvency pressure.

Production scale and operational efficiency

Sustained, rising production with AISC in guidance demonstrates scalable operations and cost control. Consistent output at scale supports long-term revenue generation, margin sustainability and the ability to fund further development and exploration from operating cash flows.

Negative Factors

Higher growth capital needs

Elevated near-term capital intensity raises execution and cash deployment risk; even with strong cash, higher capex can compress free cash flow timing and increase sensitivity to project delivery and commodity price swings over the next several quarters.

Ulysses ramp and grade pressure

Sub‑reserve grades from development-dominated feed reduce near-term ounces and margins until stoping increases. This operational phase can cause production volatility and higher unit costs, creating short-to-medium term risk to meeting sustained guidance and margin durability.

Execution risk on expansion timelines

Long-lead procurement, approvals and sequencing risk can delay expansions and defer expected returns. Such timeline uncertainty elevates project execution risk and could postpone cashflow benefits from capacity increases or new ore sources for multiple quarters.

Genesis Minerals Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Genesis Minerals Limited engages in the exploration and development of gold deposits in Western Australia. The company owns 100% interests in the Leonora Gold project located to the north of Kalgoorlie. Genesis Minerals Limited was incorporated in 2007 and is based in Perth, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

Genesis Minerals Limited generates revenue primarily through the exploration and development of its mining projects, with a focus on gold production. The company earns money by discovering and proving mineral deposits, which are then developed into operational mines. Revenue streams include the sale of extracted minerals, as well as potential joint ventures and partnerships with larger mining companies that may provide funding and resources for exploration activities. Additionally, strategic partnerships and off-take agreements with buyers of gold and other minerals can provide further financial stability and revenue generation for the company.

Genesis Minerals Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong operating and profitability momentum (63.9% revenue growth, 54.8% gross margin, 24.0% net margin) plus excellent cash generation (free cash flow growth 797.1%, OCF/NI 1.90). Balance sheet is healthy with low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.16) and solid ROE (17.6%).

Income Statement

Genesis Minerals Limited has shown impressive revenue growth of 63.9% in the latest annual report, with a strong gross profit margin of 54.8% and a net profit margin of 24.0%. The company has significantly improved its profitability metrics compared to previous years, indicating a robust financial performance in the gold industry.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a healthy financial position with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.16, suggesting conservative leverage. The return on equity is strong at 17.6%, indicating efficient use of equity capital. However, the equity ratio stands at 69.7%, which is solid but leaves room for improvement in asset utilization.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement shows a remarkable free cash flow growth rate of 797.1%, highlighting significant improvements in cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.90 indicates strong cash conversion efficiency, and the free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.07 suggests effective cash management.

Breakdown	TTM	Jun 2025	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.40B	920.14M	438.59M	76.96M	0.00	79.98K
Gross Profit	619.04M	504.04M	91.85M	-14.10M	-76.23K	40.47K
EBITDA	723.61M	463.33M	119.44M	-91.61M	-46.28M	-16.31M
Net Income	399.41M	221.17M	84.00M	-111.77M	-46.35M	-16.33M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.01B	1.80B	1.21B	1.02B	38.74M	34.67M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	340.99M	239.53M	171.29M	181.54M	16.12M	10.97M
Total Debt	108.11M	200.89M	45.20M	11.35M	0.00	0.00
Total Liabilities	494.46M	544.39M	217.65M	164.67M	10.10M	10.76M
Stockholders Equity	1.51B	1.25B	991.38M	838.24M	28.64M	23.91M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	434.77M	237.65M	-28.31M	-52.90M	-17.91M	-24.91M
Operating Cash Flow	667.32M	420.70M	136.24M	-37.58M	-16.84M	-14.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-512.40M	-442.69M	-177.06M	-360.30M	-1.07M	-10.91M
Financing Cash Flow	-15.94M	90.23M	30.57M	563.30M	23.07M	24.73M

Genesis Minerals Limited Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 8.13
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:GMD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 8.13 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.21, above the 50-day MA of 7.35, and above the 200-day MA of 5.71, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.12 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.23 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 92.67 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:GMD.

Genesis Minerals Limited Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RRL	79 Outperform	AU$7.22B	14.77	16.68%	0.65%	30.46%	―
RMS	75 Outperform	AU$8.67B	17.58	28.58%	1.92%	36.34%	110.55%
GMD	73 Outperform	AU$9.29B	23.16	19.70%	―	109.79%	158.18%
PRU	73 Outperform	AU$8.20B	14.94	21.17%	1.32%	23.35%	15.96%
CMM	69 Neutral	AU$6.96B	27.92	27.56%	―	43.49%	60.31%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%

Genesis Minerals Limited Corporate Events

GR Engineering Named Preferred EPC Contractor for $225m Tower Hill Gold Project

GR Engineering Services has been appointed preferred contractor by Genesis Minerals for the engineering, procurement and construction of a ~4 Mtpa gold processing facility at the Tower Hill Gold Project near Leonora in Western Australia. The EPC contract, with an estimated value of $225 million and around $20 million of critical-path long lead items to be ordered imminently, is expected to be finalised by March 2026, reinforcing GR Engineering’s position as a leading gold-sector EPC provider and supporting Genesis’s growth strategy through the development of this key project.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GMD) stock is a Buy with a A$10.20 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Genesis Minerals Limited stock, see the AU:GMD Stock Forecast page.

Genesis outlines ambitious ASPIRE 500 gold production vision at BMO conference

Genesis Minerals used its presentation at the BMO Global Metals, Mining & Critical Minerals Conference in Miami to outline its “ASPIRE 500” vision, an aspirational goal of lifting gold output to 500,000 ounces a year from its Leonora and Laverton operations. The company stressed that this production figure is not yet a formal target and remains subject to typical mining, regulatory and financing risks, underlining the uncertainty and potential volatility facing investors as Genesis pursues its growth ambitions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GMD) stock is a Buy with a A$8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Genesis Minerals Limited stock, see the AU:GMD Stock Forecast page.

Genesis Minerals Issues 51,000 Performance Rights Under Employee Incentive Plan

Genesis Minerals Limited has issued 51,000 unquoted performance rights under its employee incentive scheme, effective 2 February 2026. The new securities, which are subject to transfer restrictions and will not be quoted on the ASX until those restrictions lapse, reflect the company’s ongoing use of equity-based incentives to align staff remuneration with long-term corporate performance and shareholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GMD) stock is a Buy with a A$8.15 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Genesis Minerals Limited stock, see the AU:GMD Stock Forecast page.

Genesis Minerals Posts Record Gold Output and Cash Build as Tower Hill Project Accelerates

Genesis Minerals reported record quarterly gold production of 74,261 ounces in the December 2025 quarter and 147,139 ounces for the half year, with all-in sustaining costs remaining tightly controlled despite broader industry cost pressures. Strong operating performance and disciplined spending drove a A$216.5 million underlying cash build, lifting cash and equivalents to A$403.6 million and leaving the company debt-free, while unaudited half-year NPAT is expected at A$235–245 million. Development of the flagship Tower Hill project is running ahead of schedule, with key approvals, rail agreements and a mining agreement with the Darlot People secured, major long-lead items ordered, and site establishment works set to begin in the March quarter. In line with its accelerated ASPIRE 400 growth strategy, Genesis has brought forward project development and lifted FY26 growth capital guidance to A$220–240 million, maintaining a FY26 production outlook of 260,000–290,000 ounces and planning an updated long-term plan in the June half of 2026 that will detail processing expansions, including Tower Hill ore at an expanded Leonora mill.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GMD) stock is a Buy with a A$9.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Genesis Minerals Limited stock, see the AU:GMD Stock Forecast page.

Genesis Minerals Reshapes Leadership to Drive Next Growth Phase

Genesis Minerals has overhauled its leadership structure to support its next phase of rapid growth, promoting Chief Operating Officer Matthew Nixon to Chief Executive Officer, elevating Managing Director Raleigh Finlayson to Executive Chair, and transitioning Executive Director Duncan Coutts to Executive Director – Operations. The reshuffle, which also sees long-serving Chair Tony Kiernan move into a Lead Independent Director role, is designed to strengthen day-to-day operational oversight, accelerate development of key assets such as the Tower Hill mine, and free Finlayson to focus on long-term strategy, including a strategic review of the Bardoc project, as Genesis seeks to consolidate its recent expansion and reinforce its position as a major ASX100 gold producer.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GMD) stock is a Buy with a A$9.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Genesis Minerals Limited stock, see the AU:GMD Stock Forecast page.

Genesis Minerals Sets Date and Teleconference for December Quarter Update

Genesis Minerals will release its December 2025 Quarterly Report on 29 January 2026, with the document to be published on the ASX announcements platform and the company’s website. The company will host a teleconference and live audio stream on the same day at 8:00am AWST / 11:00am AEDT, underscoring its ongoing focus on timely market disclosure and direct engagement with investors and media ahead of what may be a closely watched operational and financial update.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GMD) stock is a Buy with a A$8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Genesis Minerals Limited stock, see the AU:GMD Stock Forecast page.

Genesis Minerals Reports Lapse of Incentive Securities, Trimming Potential Dilution

Genesis Minerals Limited has notified the market that a total of 388,196 retention and performance rights have lapsed after the conditions attached to those securities were not satisfied or became incapable of being met as of 8 January 2026. The cessation of these conditional rights, disclosed in an Appendix 3H filing, results in a modest reduction in potential future dilution for existing shareholders and signals that certain performance or retention hurdles within the company’s incentive schemes were not achieved, which may prompt investor scrutiny of management performance metrics and alignment of incentives with shareholder outcomes.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GMD) stock is a Hold with a A$7.20 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Genesis Minerals Limited stock, see the AU:GMD Stock Forecast page.

BlackRock Ceases to Be Substantial Shareholder in Genesis Minerals

BlackRock Group, including BlackRock Inc. and its relevant subsidiaries, has lodged a statutory Form 605 notice indicating it has ceased to be a substantial shareholder in Genesis Minerals Limited. The filing, made under section 671B of the Corporations Act 2001 and signed by an authorised signatory of BlackRock Investment Management (Australia) Limited, records that BlackRock’s relevant interest in Genesis’s voting securities has fallen below the substantial holding threshold, signalling a reduction in major institutional ownership on the company’s share register.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GMD) stock is a Buy with a A$8.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Genesis Minerals Limited stock, see the AU:GMD Stock Forecast page.

Genesis Minerals Director Sells Shares to Cover Tax Liabilities

Genesis Minerals Limited announced a change in the shareholdings of its Non-Executive Director, Mr. Michael Bowen, who sold 645,487 ordinary shares. The proceeds from this sale will primarily be used to cover tax liabilities arising from the exercise of options. This transaction reflects routine financial management by a company director and does not indicate any strategic shift or operational impact for Genesis Minerals.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GMD) stock is a Buy with a A$8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Genesis Minerals Limited stock, see the AU:GMD Stock Forecast page.