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Genesis Minerals Limited
(Sydney:GMD)
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Rating:82Outperform
Price Target:
AU$6.50
▲(10.73% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/18/26
The overall score is driven primarily by Genesis Minerals’ exceptional financial performance, including strong revenue growth, industry-leading margins, and a sharp improvement in cash generation supported by a conservative balance sheet, which collectively warrant a high financial score and the largest weight. Valuation contributes positively with a mid-teens P/E that looks reasonable relative to the company’s growth and profitability, offering a moderately attractive risk–return profile despite the absence of a dividend. Technical conditions are neutral to mildly positive, reflecting a consolidating price below key moving averages but without clear trend exhaustion or extreme momentum, so they have a smaller, mid-range influence on the final score. Execution and capital intensity risks highlighted around growth projects and ramp-ups are acknowledged, but the current operational and financial strength keeps the overall stock score firmly in the upper range.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation & zero bank debt
A >A$400m cash balance and full repayment of A$100m corporate debt materially strengthens liquidity and reduces refinancing risk. This durable cash buffer funds higher growth capex, supports operational continuity, and gives management optionality for project acceleration or opportunistic M&A without immediate external finance.
Negative Factors
Higher near-term growth capital
Bringing forward material capital for Tower Hill and other projects raises FY‑26 growth spend and cash intensity. Even with strong liquidity, higher near-term capex can constrain free cash flow, lengthen payback timelines and increases execution risk if costs or schedules slip, affecting medium-term returns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation & zero bank debt
A >A$400m cash balance and full repayment of A$100m corporate debt materially strengthens liquidity and reduces refinancing risk. This durable cash buffer funds higher growth capex, supports operational continuity, and gives management optionality for project acceleration or opportunistic M&A without immediate external finance.
Read all positive factors
Genesis Minerals Limited (GMD) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$8.37B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)8.46M
Price to Earnings (P/E)21.2
Beta (1Y)1.79
Revenue Growth149.69%
EPS Growth209.07%
CountryAU
Employees603
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryGold
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.35
Shares Outstanding1,173,308,600
10 Day Avg. Volume6,589,690
30 Day Avg. Volume8,460,026
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.14
Price to Book (P/B)3.74
Price to Sales (P/S)5.10
P/FCF Ratio19.74
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$8.55Price Target Upside45.57% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)0.55
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$1.80B
Genesis Minerals Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Founded in 2007 and headquartered in Perth, Australia, Genesis Minerals Limited specializes in the exploration and development of gold resources across Western Australia. The company's primary asset is its wholly-owned Leonora Gold Project, strate...
How the Company Makes Money
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Genesis Minerals Limited Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 18, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Sep 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a strongly positive operational and financial performance: record consecutive production, strong cash generation (AUD 231M mine operating cash flow; AUD 404M cash & investments), NPAT materially higher (estimated +300% YoY), debt fully repaid, and multiple development milestones (Tower Hill approvals, rail agreements, and Indigenous mining agreements). Offsetting items include higher near-term growth capital (revised to AUD 220-240M), ramp-up and grade pressure at Ulysses while development ore dominates, lower recoveries from third-party Laverton feed, contractor transition risk with Byrnecut mobilizing, and upcoming cash outflows for stamp duty and tax. Overall, the positive operational momentum, strong balance sheet and delivered milestones outweigh the execution and near-term capital/timing risks.Positive Updates
Record and Growing Production
Consecutive quarter of record gold production at ~74,000 ounces in the December quarter; first half production of just over 147,000 ounces, positioning the company to meet FY '26 guidance of 260,000-290,000 ounces.
Negative Updates
Increased Growth Capital Requirement
Full year growth capital outlook revised up to AUD 220-240 million (from AUD 150-170 million) as capital for Tower Hill has been brought forward into FY '26 — higher near-term cash outflow and capital intensity despite strong cash position.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record and Growing Production
Consecutive quarter of record gold production at ~74,000 ounces in the December quarter; first half production of just over 147,000 ounces, positioning the company to meet FY '26 guidance of 260,000-290,000 ounces.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Genesis maintained FY‑26 production guidance of 260,000–290,000 oz and AISC guidance of A$2,500–2,700/oz (at the half‑way mark it has produced just over 147,000 oz YTD at AISC A$2,578/oz), with the December quarter delivering ~74,000 oz at AISC A$2,635/oz; the quarter sold 71,000 oz at A$6,057/oz generating A$430m in sales, A$231m mine operating cash flow and A$167m net mine cash flow after A$64m of growth spend. Cash and investments rose to A$404m (underlying cash build >A$200m) with nil bank debt after fully repaying A$100m corporate debt, growth capital for FY‑26 was revised up to A$220–240m (from A$150–170m), and group stockpiles closed at 1.4Mt @1.2 g/t (≈53,000 oz). Operational metrics included Leonora UG 289,000 t @4.6 g/t (42,783 oz), Gwalia ~178,000 t @5.6 g/t (~32,000 oz), Ulysses 111,000 t @2.9 g/t (10,500 oz), Leonora mill 365,000 t @4.0 g/t at 92.8% recovery (~43,000 oz), Laverton mill 759,000 t @1.5 g/t at 83.8% recovery (~31,000 oz) (38% third‑party feed at 79.2% recovery; Genesis ore recovery 91.2%), total open‑pit movement >6Mt and Laverton movement 3.5Mt, Jupiter mined 133,000 t @0.7 g/t (~3,000 oz), exploration spend A$11.9m, estimated H1 NPAT A$235–245m, stamp duty A$13m due in June, and likely commencement of income tax installments—Tower Hill remains on track (original FY‑28 first ore timing may be able to be brought forward) while mill expansion studies and the ASPIRE 400 long‑term sizing are being finalised.Genesis Minerals Limited Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
90
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
85
Very Positive
Cash Flow
80
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.40B | 920.14M | 438.59M | 76.96M | 0.00 | 79.98K |
| Gross Profit | 619.04M | 504.04M | 91.85M | -14.10M | -76.23K | 40.47K |
| EBITDA | 723.61M | 463.33M | 119.44M | -91.61M | -46.28M | -16.31M |
| Net Income | 399.41M | 221.17M | 84.00M | -111.77M | -46.35M | -16.33M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.01B | 1.80B | 1.21B | 1.02B | 38.74M | 34.67M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 340.99M | 239.53M | 171.29M | 181.54M | 16.12M | 10.97M |
| Total Debt | 108.11M | 200.89M | 45.20M | 11.35M | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Total Liabilities | 494.46M | 544.39M | 217.65M | 164.67M | 10.10M | 10.76M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.51B | 1.25B | 991.38M | 838.24M | 28.64M | 23.91M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 434.77M | 237.65M | -28.31M | -52.90M | -17.91M | -24.91M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 667.32M | 420.70M | 136.24M | -37.58M | -16.84M | -14.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -512.40M | -442.69M | -177.06M | -360.30M | -1.07M | -10.91M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -15.94M | 90.23M | 30.57M | 563.30M | 23.07M | 24.73M |
Genesis Minerals Limited Technical Analysis
Positive
5.87
Price Trends
5.82
Positive
5.98
Positive
6.41
Positive
Market Momentum
0.28
Negative
70.68
Negative
94.39
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:GMD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.87 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.09, above the 50-day MA of 5.82, and below the 200-day MA of 6.41, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.28 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 70.68 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 94.39 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:GMD.
Genesis Minerals Limited Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
82 Outperform | AU$8.37B | 21.17 | 28.87% | ― | 149.69% | 209.07% | |
78 Outperform | AU$7.12B | 29.81 | 22.68% | 0.44% | 69.26% | 175.52% | |
77 Outperform | AU$5.52B | 11.43 | 27.80% | 3.29% | 31.42% | ― | |
70 Outperform | AU$5.36B | 21.51 | 12.35% | 0.65% | 101.97% | 237.66% | |
66 Neutral | AU$7.22B | 20.61 | 12.39% | 2.08% | 16.69% | 3.17% | |
63 Neutral | AU$6.84B | 14.79 | 9.94% | 2.72% | 13.34% | -15.96% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
AU:GMD
Genesis Minerals Limited
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Genesis Minerals Limited Corporate Events
Genesis Minerals Lists Additional Shares Following Option Conversions
Jul 28, 2026
Genesis Minerals Limited has applied for the quotation of an additional 487,765 ordinary fully paid shares on the ASX, expanding its listed securities under the code GMD. The new shares, issued on 28 July 2026, arise from the exercise or conversio...
Genesis Minerals posts record year, accelerates growth with A$12.6bn Vault merger
Jul 27, 2026
Genesis Minerals closed the June 2026 quarter with strong operational and financial performance, reporting quarterly output of 70,766 ounces and record FY26 production of 285,402 ounces at all‑in sustaining costs within guidance. Robust gold...
Genesis Minerals Issues Unquoted Share Rights Under Employee Incentive Scheme
Jul 24, 2026
Genesis Minerals Limited has notified the market of the issue of 28,805 unquoted share rights under its employee incentive scheme, with the securities recorded as being issued on July 24, 2026. The new rights are not intended to be quoted on the A...
Genesis Minerals Reports Lapse of 95,939 Performance Rights
Jul 24, 2026
Genesis Minerals Limited has notified the market of changes to its capital structure following the lapse of certain performance rights. The company reported that 95,939 GMDAAE performance rights ceased after the conditions attached to these rights...
Genesis Minerals Plans Major Share Placement on ASX
Jul 14, 2026
Genesis Minerals Limited, an ASX-listed minerals company trading under the code GMD, has outlined plans to expand its equity base through a significant new share issue. The company issues ordinary fully paid shares, reflecting its reliance on capi...
Genesis to Acquire Vault in Bid to Forge New Australian Gold Major
Jul 13, 2026
Genesis Minerals and Vault Minerals have agreed a scheme of arrangement under which Genesis will acquire 100% of Vault’s ordinary shares through a mix of new Genesis shares and cash. The transaction is structured to create a combined group p...
Genesis and Vault in A$12.6bn Deal to Forge New Australian Gold Major
Jul 13, 2026
Genesis Minerals and Vault Minerals have agreed to merge via a scheme of arrangement under which Genesis will acquire all Vault shares in a cash-and-scrip deal valuing Vault at about A$5.6 billion. The transaction, which follows Vault’s term...
Genesis Moves Closer to Acquiring Vault as Regis Steps Aside
Jul 12, 2026
Genesis Minerals has confirmed it has lodged a binding scheme of arrangement proposal to acquire Vault Minerals, which Vault’s board has deemed a superior offer to its existing agreement with Regis Resources. Regis has now indicated it will ...
Vault Minerals Set to Shift Takeover Deal from Regis to Genesis
Jul 12, 2026
Vault Minerals Limited, an ASX-listed mining and exploration company, has been the subject of competing acquisition interest from Genesis Minerals Limited and Regis Resources Limited. The company operates in the Australian resources sector, with p...
Regis walks away from Vault Minerals bid, expects A$50.7m break fee
Jul 12, 2026
Regis Resources has decided not to submit a counterproposal to match a competing takeover offer for Vault Minerals made by Genesis Minerals, after the Vault board deemed the Genesis bid superior under an existing scheme implementation deed. The Re...
Genesis Confirms Unchanged Vault Scheme as Regis Matching Period Clarified
Jul 6, 2026
Genesis Minerals has reiterated that its binding scheme of arrangement proposal for Vault Minerals Limited remains unchanged, following Vault’s clarification of the timing for Regis’ matching right period. Vault confirmed that the matc...
Vault Minerals Extends Regis Matching Right Period Amid Superior Genesis Offer
Jul 6, 2026
Vault Minerals has clarified that the matching right period under its existing scheme implementation deed with Regis Resources will now expire at 11:59 p.m. AWST on Monday, 13 July 2026, rather than 10 July as previously stated. During this extend...
Genesis Outlines Non-Binding Superior Proposal to Vault
Jul 5, 2026
Genesis Minerals has outlined a non-binding, indicative proposal to Vault, describing it as a superior scheme but emphasizing that no formal agreement has been reached. The company notes that the announcement is informational only, does not consti...
Genesis Tables Higher-Premium Bid to Merge with Vault Minerals
Jul 5, 2026
Genesis Minerals has tabled a definitive, binding proposal to merge with Vault Minerals via a scheme of arrangement that would see Vault shareholders receive Genesis shares and cash, valuing Vault at about A$5.6 billion and implying a notable prem...
Vault Minerals Declares Genesis Bid Superior to Regis Offer
Jul 5, 2026
Vault Minerals has received an unsolicited, binding merger proposal from Genesis Minerals under which Genesis would acquire all Vault shares via a scheme of arrangement, offering 0.7629 Genesis shares plus A$0.475 in cash per Vault share, with a m...
Genesis Secures ASIC Reporting Relief for Magnetic Resources in FY26
Jul 1, 2026
Genesis Minerals has secured temporary financial reporting relief from ASIC for its wholly owned subsidiary Magnetic Resources NL for the year ending 30 June 2026, removing the need for Magnetic to produce standalone audited financial, directors&#...
Genesis lifts exploration and growth plans on Laverton drilling and Magnetic deal
Jun 25, 2026
Genesis Minerals is intensifying its push to become a major gold producer in Western Australia, leveraging its Laverton processing hub and a growing resource base in the Laverton and Leonora districts. The company’s strategy centres on expan...
Genesis Minerals completes acquisition of Magnetic Resources via scheme of arrangement
Jun 22, 2026
Genesis Minerals Limited has completed its acquisition of Magnetic Resources NL via a court-approved scheme of arrangement, resulting in all Magnetic shares being transferred to Genesis and consideration delivered in a mix of cash and new Genesis ...
Genesis Minerals Seeks ASX Quotation for Over 28 Million New Securities
Jun 22, 2026
Genesis Minerals Limited has lodged an application with the ASX for quotation of 28,022,259 ordinary fully paid deferred securities, associated with Magnetic Resources. The issuance of these securities, previously flagged via an Appendix 3B, expan...
Genesis Minerals’ takeover of Magnetic Resources becomes effective after court approval
Jun 10, 2026
Genesis Minerals Limited has secured court approval to acquire 100% of Magnetic Resources NL via a scheme of arrangement under the Corporations Act, marking a further consolidation move in the Australian resources sector. The scheme has now become...
Court clears Genesis Minerals’ full takeover of Magnetic Resources
Jun 9, 2026
Genesis Minerals Limited has secured court approval for its acquisition of Magnetic Resources NL via a scheme of arrangement, paving the way for Genesis to take 100% ownership of the junior explorer. Magnetic’s shares are scheduled to be sus...
Genesis Minerals Plans Major Share Placement to Boost Capital Base
Jun 9, 2026
Genesis Minerals Limited has notified the ASX of a proposed issue of up to 28,023,576 ordinary fully paid shares, to be conducted as a placement or similar type of capital raising. The new securities are expected to be issued on 22 June 2026, sign...
Genesis Minerals Announces Lapse of 50,000 Performance Rights
Jun 4, 2026
Genesis Minerals Limited has notified the market of the cessation of 50,000 performance rights, recorded under the ASX code GMDAAE. The rights lapsed on 4 June 2026 after the specified conditions were not met or became incapable of being satisfied...
GR Engineering Wins $229m EPC Contract for Genesis Minerals’ Tower Hill Gold Project
May 21, 2026
GR Engineering Services has signed an engineering, procurement and construction contract with Genesis Minerals’ subsidiary for the Tower Hill Gold Project near Leonora. The deal, valued at $229 million, follows GR Engineering’s earlier...
Genesis outlines ‘ASPIRE 500’ growth vision in new corporate presentation
May 5, 2026
Genesis Minerals has released a corporate presentation dated 5 May 2026 outlining its “ASPIRE 500” vision, an aspirational goal to build production toward 500,000 ounces of gold per year. The document emphasises that this target is not...
Genesis taps ‘forgotten’ Gwalia zones as Leonora drilling lifts growth outlook
May 5, 2026
Genesis Minerals has reported strong drilling results across its Leonora assets, underpinned by a A$40–50m FY26 exploration budget and a debt-free balance sheet with A$600m in cash. The program targets brownfields growth around existing infr...
Genesis Minerals lifts gold resources and reserves to fuel Leonora-Laverton growth push
May 5, 2026
Genesis Minerals has significantly expanded its mineral inventory in the Leonora and Laverton gold district, lifting total resources to 18.9 million ounces and reserves to 4.4 million ounces as at 31 December 2025. The update includes a maiden Foc...
Genesis Minerals moves ahead on full acquisition of Magnetic Resources via scheme
Apr 29, 2026
Magnetic Resources has confirmed that the scheme booklet for the proposed acquisition by Genesis Minerals, under which Genesis will acquire all shares in Magnetic, has been registered with ASIC and will be distributed to shareholders in early May....
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.