Genesis Minerals Limited (GMD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$9.21B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 8.46M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 23.0
• Beta (1Y): 1.36
• Revenue Growth: 109.79%
• EPS Growth: 158.18%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 331
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Gold
• EPS (TTM): 0.21
• Shares Outstanding: 1,142,328,200
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 6,589,690
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 8,460,026
• PEG Ratio: 0.13
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.74
• Price to Sales (P/S): 5.10
• P/FCF Ratio: 19.74
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: AU$9.40
• Price Target Upside: 26.51% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.53
• Revenue Forecast (FY): AU$1.77B

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: AU$8.00 ▲(7.67% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/19/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/19/26

Overall score is driven by very strong financial performance (profitability and cash-flow strength with low leverage) and a positive earnings update with maintained guidance and a strengthened balance sheet. The score is tempered by a relatively expensive valuation (P/E 37.71) and mixed near-term technicals (below 20-day average with slightly negative MACD).

Positive Factors

Strong liquidity & low leverage

A A$404m cash position and full repayment of a A$100m drawdown materially reduces refinancing and interest rate risk, giving management flexibility to fund growth, absorb operational hiccups, and prioritize value-accretive investments. This durable liquidity buffer underpins medium-term execution and capital allocation choices.

Production momentum & maintained guidance

Sustained record production and reaffirmed FY‑26 guidance increase predictability of near-to-mid-term cash flows and validate operational delivery. Persistent ability to hit guidance supports planning for growth spend, debt-free operations and signals durable operational capability across multiple assets.

Development approvals & strategic agreements

Securing environmental permits, rail access and Indigenous mining agreements materially reduces project delivery and permitting risk for Tower Hill. These structural approvals improve the likelihood and timing of project advancement, shortening lead times and strengthening the company’s path to production and long-term resource conversion.

Negative Factors

Higher near-term growth capital

Bringing forward substantial Tower Hill and expansion capex raises FY‑26 capital intensity and increases sensitivity of near-term free cash flow to execution and commodity price swings. Even with strong cash, elevated capex compresses discretionary spend and heightens the consequences of delays or cost overruns over the coming 2–6 months.

Ulysses grade and ramp-up volatility

Sustained below-reserve grades while development ore dominates feed creates production and AISC variability until stoping increases. This operational profile can depress ounces and margins in the medium term, complicating forecasting and requiring higher output or cost control elsewhere to offset a persistent grade gap.

Contractor transition risk

Replacing an incumbent underground contractor introduces mobilisation, ramp-up and knowledge-transfer risks that can disrupt mining continuity and elevate short-to-medium term costs. Such transitions often affect productivity and scheduling for several months, posing execution risk to planned production and development milestones.

Genesis Minerals Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Genesis Minerals Limited engages in the exploration and development of gold deposits in Western Australia. The company owns 100% interests in the Leonora Gold project located to the north of Kalgoorlie. Genesis Minerals Limited was incorporated in 2007 and is based in Perth, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

Genesis Minerals Limited generates revenue primarily through the exploration and development of its mining projects, with a focus on gold production. The company earns money by discovering and proving mineral deposits, which are then developed into operational mines. Revenue streams include the sale of extracted minerals, as well as potential joint ventures and partnerships with larger mining companies that may provide funding and resources for exploration activities. Additionally, strategic partnerships and off-take agreements with buyers of gold and other minerals can provide further financial stability and revenue generation for the company.

Genesis Minerals Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong operating and profitability momentum (63.9% revenue growth, 54.8% gross margin, 24.0% net margin) plus excellent cash generation (free cash flow growth 797.1%, OCF/NI 1.90). Balance sheet is healthy with low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.16) and solid ROE (17.6%).

Income Statement

Genesis Minerals Limited has shown impressive revenue growth of 63.9% in the latest annual report, with a strong gross profit margin of 54.8% and a net profit margin of 24.0%. The company has significantly improved its profitability metrics compared to previous years, indicating a robust financial performance in the gold industry.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a healthy financial position with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.16, suggesting conservative leverage. The return on equity is strong at 17.6%, indicating efficient use of equity capital. However, the equity ratio stands at 69.7%, which is solid but leaves room for improvement in asset utilization.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement shows a remarkable free cash flow growth rate of 797.1%, highlighting significant improvements in cash generation. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.90 indicates strong cash conversion efficiency, and the free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.07 suggests effective cash management.

Breakdown	TTM	Jun 2025	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.40B	920.14M	438.59M	76.96M	0.00	79.98K
Gross Profit	619.04M	504.04M	91.85M	-14.10M	-76.23K	40.47K
EBITDA	723.61M	463.33M	119.44M	-91.61M	-46.28M	-16.31M
Net Income	399.41M	221.17M	84.00M	-111.77M	-46.35M	-16.33M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.01B	1.80B	1.21B	1.02B	38.74M	34.67M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	340.99M	239.53M	171.29M	181.54M	16.12M	10.97M
Total Debt	108.11M	200.89M	45.20M	11.35M	0.00	0.00
Total Liabilities	494.46M	544.39M	217.65M	164.67M	10.10M	10.76M
Stockholders Equity	1.51B	1.25B	991.38M	838.24M	28.64M	23.91M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	434.77M	237.65M	-28.31M	-52.90M	-17.91M	-24.91M
Operating Cash Flow	667.32M	420.70M	136.24M	-37.58M	-16.84M	-14.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-512.40M	-442.69M	-177.06M	-360.30M	-1.07M	-10.91M
Financing Cash Flow	-15.94M	90.23M	30.57M	563.30M	23.07M	24.73M

Genesis Minerals Limited Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 7.43
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:GMD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7.43 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.10, above the 50-day MA of 7.29, and above the 200-day MA of 5.67, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.87 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 72.74 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:GMD.

Genesis Minerals Limited Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
RRL	79 Outperform	AU$7.39B	14.62	16.68%	0.65%	30.46%	―
RMS	75 Outperform	AU$9.22B	17.89	28.58%	1.92%	36.34%	110.55%
GMD	73 Outperform	AU$9.21B	22.96	19.70%	―	109.79%	158.18%
PRU	73 Outperform	AU$8.49B	14.77	21.17%	1.32%	23.35%	15.96%
CMM	69 Neutral	AU$7.09B	28.45	27.56%	―	43.49%	60.31%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%

Genesis Minerals Limited Corporate Events

Genesis Minerals Issues 51,000 Performance Rights Under Employee Incentive Plan

Genesis Minerals Limited has issued 51,000 unquoted performance rights under its employee incentive scheme, effective 2 February 2026. The new securities, which are subject to transfer restrictions and will not be quoted on the ASX until those restrictions lapse, reflect the company’s ongoing use of equity-based incentives to align staff remuneration with long-term corporate performance and shareholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GMD) stock is a Buy with a A$8.15 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Genesis Minerals Limited stock, see the AU:GMD Stock Forecast page.

Genesis Minerals Posts Record Gold Output and Cash Build as Tower Hill Project Accelerates

Genesis Minerals reported record quarterly gold production of 74,261 ounces in the December 2025 quarter and 147,139 ounces for the half year, with all-in sustaining costs remaining tightly controlled despite broader industry cost pressures. Strong operating performance and disciplined spending drove a A$216.5 million underlying cash build, lifting cash and equivalents to A$403.6 million and leaving the company debt-free, while unaudited half-year NPAT is expected at A$235–245 million. Development of the flagship Tower Hill project is running ahead of schedule, with key approvals, rail agreements and a mining agreement with the Darlot People secured, major long-lead items ordered, and site establishment works set to begin in the March quarter. In line with its accelerated ASPIRE 400 growth strategy, Genesis has brought forward project development and lifted FY26 growth capital guidance to A$220–240 million, maintaining a FY26 production outlook of 260,000–290,000 ounces and planning an updated long-term plan in the June half of 2026 that will detail processing expansions, including Tower Hill ore at an expanded Leonora mill.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GMD) stock is a Buy with a A$9.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Genesis Minerals Limited stock, see the AU:GMD Stock Forecast page.

Genesis Minerals Reshapes Leadership to Drive Next Growth Phase

Genesis Minerals has overhauled its leadership structure to support its next phase of rapid growth, promoting Chief Operating Officer Matthew Nixon to Chief Executive Officer, elevating Managing Director Raleigh Finlayson to Executive Chair, and transitioning Executive Director Duncan Coutts to Executive Director – Operations. The reshuffle, which also sees long-serving Chair Tony Kiernan move into a Lead Independent Director role, is designed to strengthen day-to-day operational oversight, accelerate development of key assets such as the Tower Hill mine, and free Finlayson to focus on long-term strategy, including a strategic review of the Bardoc project, as Genesis seeks to consolidate its recent expansion and reinforce its position as a major ASX100 gold producer.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GMD) stock is a Buy with a A$9.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Genesis Minerals Limited stock, see the AU:GMD Stock Forecast page.

Genesis Minerals Sets Date and Teleconference for December Quarter Update

Genesis Minerals will release its December 2025 Quarterly Report on 29 January 2026, with the document to be published on the ASX announcements platform and the company’s website. The company will host a teleconference and live audio stream on the same day at 8:00am AWST / 11:00am AEDT, underscoring its ongoing focus on timely market disclosure and direct engagement with investors and media ahead of what may be a closely watched operational and financial update.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GMD) stock is a Buy with a A$8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Genesis Minerals Limited stock, see the AU:GMD Stock Forecast page.

Genesis Minerals Reports Lapse of Incentive Securities, Trimming Potential Dilution

Genesis Minerals Limited has notified the market that a total of 388,196 retention and performance rights have lapsed after the conditions attached to those securities were not satisfied or became incapable of being met as of 8 January 2026. The cessation of these conditional rights, disclosed in an Appendix 3H filing, results in a modest reduction in potential future dilution for existing shareholders and signals that certain performance or retention hurdles within the company’s incentive schemes were not achieved, which may prompt investor scrutiny of management performance metrics and alignment of incentives with shareholder outcomes.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GMD) stock is a Hold with a A$7.20 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Genesis Minerals Limited stock, see the AU:GMD Stock Forecast page.

BlackRock Ceases to Be Substantial Shareholder in Genesis Minerals

BlackRock Group, including BlackRock Inc. and its relevant subsidiaries, has lodged a statutory Form 605 notice indicating it has ceased to be a substantial shareholder in Genesis Minerals Limited. The filing, made under section 671B of the Corporations Act 2001 and signed by an authorised signatory of BlackRock Investment Management (Australia) Limited, records that BlackRock’s relevant interest in Genesis’s voting securities has fallen below the substantial holding threshold, signalling a reduction in major institutional ownership on the company’s share register.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GMD) stock is a Buy with a A$8.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Genesis Minerals Limited stock, see the AU:GMD Stock Forecast page.

Genesis Minerals Director Sells Shares to Cover Tax Liabilities

Genesis Minerals Limited announced a change in the shareholdings of its Non-Executive Director, Mr. Michael Bowen, who sold 645,487 ordinary shares. The proceeds from this sale will primarily be used to cover tax liabilities arising from the exercise of options. This transaction reflects routine financial management by a company director and does not indicate any strategic shift or operational impact for Genesis Minerals.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GMD) stock is a Buy with a A$8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Genesis Minerals Limited stock, see the AU:GMD Stock Forecast page.

Genesis Minerals Director Acquires Share Rights in Fee Sacrifice Scheme

Genesis Minerals Limited announced a change in the interests of its director, Jane Macey, who acquired 6,869 share rights through the NED Fee Sacrifice Scheme. This move, approved by shareholders, reflects the company’s ongoing efforts to align director compensation with company performance, potentially impacting its governance and stakeholder relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GMD) stock is a Buy with a A$8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Genesis Minerals Limited stock, see the AU:GMD Stock Forecast page.

Genesis Minerals Limited Announces Quotation of New Securities

Genesis Minerals Limited has announced the quotation of 445,558 fully paid ordinary securities on the Australian Securities Exchange, effective November 27, 2025. This move is part of the company’s strategy to enhance its financial flexibility and potentially support its ongoing exploration and development activities, which could have significant implications for its market positioning and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GMD) stock is a Buy with a A$7.90 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Genesis Minerals Limited stock, see the AU:GMD Stock Forecast page.

Genesis Minerals Secures Rail Agreements to Advance Tower Hill Development

Genesis Minerals Limited has signed rail agreements with key stakeholders, including the Public Transport Authority of Western Australia, Arc Infrastructure, and Aurizon, to facilitate the development of the Tower Hill open pit. This project, with a reserve of 1Moz, is expected to enhance the company’s operations by allowing for the expansion of the Leonora mill and the development of the Tower Hill deposit. The agreements will also lead to the relocation of the Leonora rail terminal, reducing heavy vehicle movements through the town and improving safety. The total cost for the rail shortening project is estimated at A$80 million, funded by Genesis’ operating cash flows and existing reserves. The project is anticipated to bring significant benefits to both Genesis and the Leonora community, with mine development on track for FY27 and first ore expected in FY28.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GMD) stock is a Buy with a A$8.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Genesis Minerals Limited stock, see the AU:GMD Stock Forecast page.