Lycopodium Limited (AU:LYL)
ASX:LYL
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Lycopodium Limited
(Sydney:LYL)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
AU$14.00
▲(11.82% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:02/18/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial quality (high margins, low leverage, strong ROE) tempered by weaker growth signals (slightly negative revenue growth and declining free cash flow growth). Technicals are mixed with near-term softness despite a longer-term uptrend. Valuation and dividend support the profile, while the earnings call adds modest risk from guidance revision and project timing delays, partially offset by a strong order book/pipeline and stable profitability.
Positive Factors
High and Durable Profitability
Exceptionally high gross and healthy operating margins reflect a services-led, low-capex business model with strong pricing power and efficient cost control. These margins provide durable earnings capacity, fund reinvestment and dividends, and help absorb timing shocks from project delays over coming quarters.
Negative Factors
Material Project Timing Delays
Multi-month shifts on large projects delay revenue recognition and create short-to-mid term utilization gaps. These timing risks compress near-term margin leverage, raise carrying costs from retained resources, and can push expected cash flows and earnings into later periods.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High and Durable Profitability
Exceptionally high gross and healthy operating margins reflect a services-led, low-capex business model with strong pricing power and efficient cost control. These margins provide durable earnings capacity, fund reinvestment and dividends, and help absorb timing shocks from project delays over coming quarters.
Read all positive factors
Lycopodium Limited (LYL) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$536.94M
Dividend Yield2.51%
Average Volume (3M)40.13K
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.4
Beta (1Y)0.65
Revenue Growth-3.08%
EPS Growth-16.35%
CountryAU
Employees1,300
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryEngineering & Construction
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.46
Shares Outstanding39,740,227
10 Day Avg. Volume32,833
30 Day Avg. Volume40,132
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.57
Price to Book (P/B)2.71
Price to Sales (P/S)1.23
P/FCF Ratio11.68
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)1
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$394.85M
Lycopodium Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Lycopodium Limited (LYL) is an Australian engineering and project management company that specializes in providing services to the resources, infrastructure, and industrial sectors. The company focuses on delivering high-quality solutions in areas...
How the Company Makes Money
Lycopodium primarily makes money by providing professional services and project delivery services to clients on capital projects. Revenue is earned through contracts for engineering and design work (front-end studies and detailed engineering), pro...
Lycopodium Limited Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 17, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 25, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a generally positive underlying business performance: solid H1 revenue ($174.5M), NPAT ($18.3M) and a strong opportunity pipeline ($1.3B) alongside reinstated dividends and geographic expansion. The main negatives were timing delays on several material projects (e.g., Blackwater ~3–4 months), a slower-than-expected near-term contribution from SAXUM, softer Q2 utilization and carrying costs from pre-emptive capacity builds. Management expects utilization and revenues to recover in H2 and FY27 driven by the strong study/FEED pipeline. Overall, the positive metrics, pipeline and balance sheet strength outweigh the timing and short-term operational challenges.Positive Updates
Revenue and Profitability for H1 FY26
Reported revenue of $174.5 million and NPAT of $18.3 million for the half, delivering a NPAT margin of 10.5%, in line with management's target.
Negative Updates
Timing Delays on Material Projects
Notable shift-to-the-right for material projects (Blackwater flagged as ~3–4 month delay), which has impacted forecasts and timing of revenue recognition for the group.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and Profitability for H1 FY26
Reported revenue of $174.5 million and NPAT of $18.3 million for the half, delivering a NPAT margin of 10.5%, in line with management's target.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management revised FY26 guidance to group revenue of $370–$410 million and NPAT of $37–$41 million (around a 10% NPAT margin), noting H1 results of $174.5 million revenue and $18.3 million NPAT (10.5% margin) — implying H2 needs about $195.5–$235.5 million revenue and $18.7–$22.7 million NPAT to meet guidance; committed contracts total $415 million and the revenue opportunity pipeline is $1.3 billion, the Board declared a $0.22 per share fully‑franked interim dividend, and management said a ~3–4 month timing shift on major prospects (notably Blackwater) drove the revision while they continue to invest in capacity across Perth, Toronto, Cape Town, Lima and Manila and expect a strong second half.Lycopodium Limited Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
75
Positive
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
Cash Flow
65
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 341.89M | 333.94M | 344.55M | 323.88M | 228.71M | 158.06M |
| Gross Profit | 75.00M | 307.69M | 312.49M | 80.35M | 42.38M | 42.99M |
| EBITDA | 55.00M | 67.82M | 74.55M | 70.48M | 45.64M | 25.95M |
| Net Income | 35.22M | 42.22M | 50.71M | 46.78M | 27.18M | 14.20M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 264.32M | 241.08M | 217.04M | 219.83M | 224.12M | 169.66M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 80.02M | 79.67M | 68.19M | 82.41M | 100.95M | 76.84M |
| Total Debt | 26.79M | 16.42M | 12.33M | 15.70M | 16.65M | 17.90M |
| Total Liabilities | 105.85M | 90.61M | 89.60M | 106.87M | 124.45M | 81.99M |
| Stockholders Equity | 155.94M | 151.87M | 128.06M | 114.64M | 100.50M | 88.38M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 33.85M | 35.24M | 26.76M | 15.38M | 37.72M | -15.82M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 36.95M | 37.21M | 27.84M | 19.79M | 41.68M | -12.91M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -10.03M | -922.21K | 1.26M | -4.45M | 655.17K | -2.61M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -25.42M | -24.76M | -40.38M | -34.05M | -18.51M | -11.74M |
Lycopodium Limited Technical Analysis
Positive
12.52
Price Trends
14.21
Negative
13.85
Negative
12.70
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.22
Negative
50.83
Neutral
62.17
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:LYL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 12.52 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.44, below the 50-day MA of 14.21, and below the 200-day MA of 12.70, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.22 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.83 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 62.17 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:LYL.
Lycopodium Limited Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | AU$754.25M | ― | 8.35% | 4.17% | -21.57% | -34.09% | |
67 Neutral | AU$536.94M | 7.39 | 22.89% | 2.51% | -3.08% | -16.35% | |
65 Neutral | AU$2.96B | 10.17 | 20.27% | 2.65% | 7.20% | 32.60% | |
65 Neutral | AU$704.90M | 10.83 | 42.55% | 5.24% | 12.96% | 8.19% | |
64 Neutral | AU$5.35B | 14.22 | 7.97% | 3.11% | -4.53% | 97.67% | |
64 Neutral | AU$2.77B | 8.10 | 7.79% | 3.20% | 12.18% | -73.81% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% |
* Industrials Sector Average
AU:LYL
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Lycopodium Limited Corporate Events
Lycopodium Wins A$118m Tulu Kapi Gold Project Contract in Ethiopia
Mar 8, 2026
Lycopodium has secured an A$118 million Engineering, Supply and Labour Hire contract for KEFI Gold and Copper’s Tulu Kapi Gold Project in Ethiopia, one of the country’s first modern industrial-scale gold mines. The scope covers full en...
Lycopodium Director Cuts Indirect Shareholding by 550,000 Shares
Mar 3, 2026
Lycopodium Limited has reported a change in the relevant interests of director Bruno Ruggiero, reflecting a substantial reduction in his indirect shareholding. His interests are held through entities Luala Pty Ltd and Ziziphus Pty Ltd, but the not...
Lycopodium Sets Date for 1H FY26 Results and Investor Webinar
Feb 4, 2026
Lycopodium Limited has announced that it will release its half-year financial results for the period ended 31 December 2025 on 18 February 2026 and will host a same-day webinar led by its managing director and chief financial officer to present th...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.