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Lycopodium Limited
(Sydney:LYL)
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Rating:80Outperform
Price Target:
AU$25.00
â–˛(33.90% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/21/26
Score is driven primarily by above-average financial quality (solid profitability, low leverage, and strong recent cash generation) and a bullish earnings update with ambitious FY’27 guidance supported by substantial committed work. Technicals are constructive but near-overbought, and valuation looks somewhat growth-priced with only a modest dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Committed project pipeline supports growth
A substantial contracted base and expanding study pipeline provide multi-month revenue visibility. Rising committed work and managed CapEx support continued scale, while the study pipeline can replenish future engineering and project-delivery opportunities.
Negative Factors
High geographic concentration in Africa
Dependence on Africa leaves earnings and project execution exposed to country-specific political, regulatory, currency and operating conditions. Expansion in the Americas helps diversify the business, but the current revenue mix remains concentrated.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Committed project pipeline supports growth
A substantial contracted base and expanding study pipeline provide multi-month revenue visibility. Rising committed work and managed CapEx support continued scale, while the study pipeline can replenish future engineering and project-delivery opportunities.
Read all positive factors
Lycopodium Limited (LYL) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$842.30M
Dividend Yield2.24%
Average Volume (3M)40.13K
Price to Earnings (P/E)24.1
Beta (1Y)0.58
Revenue Growth12.00%
EPS Growth-5.39%
CountryAU
Employees1,300
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryEngineering & Construction
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.03
Shares Outstanding39,740,227
10 Day Avg. Volume32,833
30 Day Avg. Volume40,132
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.09
Price to Book (P/B)5.51
Price to Sales (P/S)2.55
P/FCF Ratio25.80
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)1.22
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$500.00M
Lycopodium Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Established in 1992 and based in East Perth, Australia, Lycopodium Limited provides expert engineering and complete project execution solutions across the natural resources, infrastructure, and industrial manufacturing sectors. The company operate...
How the Company Makes Money
Lycopodium Limited makes money by providing professional services for major capital projects, typically in the resources (mining and minerals processing) value chain. Revenue is primarily generated through contracted project and engineering servic...
Lycopodium Limited Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 18, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 24, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a strongly positive operational and financial picture: record revenue, solid margins hitting NPAT targets, robust cash and equity growth, and an expanding project and study pipeline with early and confident FY'27 guidance. Key achievements include numerous project awards, a growing Americas footprint and substantial increases in committed contracts and studies. Primary risks flagged are execution and sovereign risks in foreign jurisdictions, about 30% of FY'27 revenue still uncommitted, capacity constraints to meet demand (requiring further hiring and office expansion), and regional concentration (58% revenue from Africa). On balance, the highlights substantially outweigh the lowlights, though execution of the strong pipeline remains critical to realize guidance.Positive Updates
Record Revenue and Strong Profitability
Revenue of $377.5M, up 11% year‑on‑year (record revenue). EBITDA of $59.5M (15.7% margin), Profit Before Tax $52.5M and NPAT $40.2M (10.6% NPAT margin), meeting the company's long‑term +10% NPAT target and at the top end of guidance. Earnings per share were $1.01.
Negative Updates
Sovereign and Execution Risks in Foreign Jurisdictions
A growing portion of the contract mix is in foreign jurisdictions, raising sovereign and execution risk. Management describes mitigation via split contracting and local entities and asserts they price for risk, but jurisdictional complexity remains an execution and risk factor.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Revenue and Strong Profitability
Revenue of $377.5M, up 11% year‑on‑year (record revenue). EBITDA of $59.5M (15.7% margin), Profit Before Tax $52.5M and NPAT $40.2M (10.6% NPAT margin), meeting the company's long‑term +10% NPAT target and at the top end of guidance. Earnings per share were $1.01.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Lycopodium has brought forward FY‑27 guidance of AUD 540–580m revenue (midpoint AUD 560m, roughly +50% on FY‑26 revenue of $377.5m) and NPAT of $54–58m (consistent with its ~±10% NPAT margin target); management says just under 70% of FY‑27 revenue is already locked in (within ~AUD 661m of committed contracts), with >90 studies in the pipeline and six‑month momentum metrics including committed contracts +59%, revenue opportunity pipeline +8%, managed CapEx +32% and studies up twofold—backed by FY‑26 results of EBITDA $59.5m (15.7%), PBT $52.5m, NPAT $40.2m (10.6%), EPS $1.01, equity $170.7m (+13%), ROE 25%, cash $106.2m, NTA $3.92/share and minimal debt.Lycopodium Limited Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
86
Very Positive
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 374.02M | 333.94M | 344.55M | 323.88M | 228.71M |
| Gross Profit | 71.10M | 307.69M | 312.49M | 80.35M | 42.38M |
| EBITDA | 53.83M | 67.82M | 74.55M | 70.48M | 45.64M |
| Net Income | 40.17M | 42.22M | 50.71M | 46.78M | 27.18M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 296.92M | 241.08M | 217.04M | 219.83M | 224.12M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 106.19M | 79.67M | 68.19M | 82.41M | 100.95M |
| Total Debt | 12.49M | 16.42M | 12.33M | 15.70M | 16.65M |
| Total Liabilities | 126.25M | 90.61M | 89.60M | 106.87M | 124.45M |
| Stockholders Equity | 169.94M | 151.87M | 128.06M | 114.64M | 100.50M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 59.29M | 35.24M | 26.76M | 15.38M | 37.72M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 61.75M | 37.21M | 27.84M | 19.79M | 41.68M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -8.23M | -922.21K | 1.26M | -4.45M | 655.17K |
| Financing Cash Flow | -25.45M | -24.76M | -40.38M | -34.05M | -18.51M |
Lycopodium Limited Technical Analysis
Positive
18.67
Price Trends
18.41
Positive
15.95
Positive
14.87
Positive
Market Momentum
0.65
Negative
73.06
Negative
62.63
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:LYL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 18.67 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.83, above the 50-day MA of 18.41, and above the 200-day MA of 14.87, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.65 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 73.06 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 62.63 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:LYL.
Lycopodium Limited Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
85 Outperform | AU$1.07B | 36.38 | 42.55% | 4.50% | -16.50% | -24.00% | |
80 Outperform | AU$842.30M | 24.15 | 22.89% | 2.60% | 12.00% | -5.39% | |
78 Outperform | AU$950.45M | 25.05 | 7.03% | 3.47% | -34.08% | -36.57% | |
66 Neutral | AU$3.18B | 30.21 | 20.27% | 2.98% | 26.80% | 40.18% | |
66 Neutral | AU$3.31B | 24.56 | 23.03% | 3.20% | 31.39% | 451.49% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
59 Neutral | AU$4.90B | 20.18 | 11.01% | 3.39% | -7.37% | 59.81% |
* Industrials Sector Average
AU:LYL
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Lycopodium Limited Corporate Events
Lycopodium sets out compliance with ASX corporate governance standards
Aug 18, 2026
Lycopodium Limited has detailed its corporate governance framework, confirming broad compliance with the ASX Corporate Governance Council’s fourth edition Principles and Recommendations. The Board aims to safeguard the interests of sharehold...
Lycopodium Files ASX Appendix 4G, Confirms Governance Compliance
Aug 18, 2026
Lycopodium Limited has lodged its Appendix 4G and corporate governance statement for the year ended 30 June 2026, confirming that its key governance disclosures are available on its website rather than solely in the annual report. The statement, a...
Lycopodium lifts dividend on solid FY26 and eyes record year with expanding global project pipeline
Aug 18, 2026
Lycopodium reported FY26 revenue of $377.5 million and NPAT of $40.2 million, both within prior guidance, and declared a fully franked full-year dividend of 59 cents per share, up 69% on FY25, supported by a cash balance of $106.2 million. The com...
Lycopodium lifts dividends as revenue climbs and expands via SAXUM acquisition
Aug 18, 2026
Lycopodium reported an 11.2% rise in revenue from ordinary activities to A$377.6 million for the year to 30 June 2026, but profit after tax attributable to members declined 4.9% to A$40.2 million. Despite the softer earnings, the board lifted tota...
Lycopodium Wins A$93m EPCM Mandate for Blackwater Mine Expansion
Aug 6, 2026
Lycopodium Limited has secured a A$93 million engineering, procurement and construction management contract for Artemis Gold’s Expanded Phase 2 project at the Blackwater Mine in British Columbia, Canada. The win builds on Lycopodium’s ...
Lycopodium wins A$22m Pilgangoora lithium expansion engineering contract
Jul 29, 2026
Lycopodium Limited has secured a detailed engineering services contract worth about A$22 million from Pilgangoora Operations Pty Ltd, a subsidiary of PLS Group, to design the Wet Plant for the proposed P2000 Expansion Project at the Pilgangoora li...
Lycopodium sets 19 August date for FY26 results and investor webinar
Jul 27, 2026
Lycopodium Limited has announced it will release its full-year results for the period ended 30 June 2026 on 19 August 2026, reinforcing its communication schedule with investors and the market. The disclosure date provides stakeholders with clear ...
Lycopodium Wins Early Works Role on Ausgold’s Katanning Gold Project
Jul 7, 2026
Lycopodium has been named preferred engineering, procurement and construction contractor for Ausgold’s Katanning Gold Project in Western Australia and has secured an A$6 million Early Works Agreement. The contract covers detailed engineering...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.