Kogan.com (KGN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$385.34M
• Dividend Yield: 3.78%
• Average Volume (3M): 318.22K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 223.0
• Beta (1Y): 1.66
• Revenue Growth: 4.67%
• EPS Growth: -72.98%
• Country: AU
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 64
• Industry: Specialty Retail
• EPS (TTM): 0.12
• Shares Outstanding: 99,314,780
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 247,936
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 318,218
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: AU$5.41
• Price Target Upside: 39.35% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5

• Rating: 55 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$4.00 ▲(3.09% Upside)

Kogan.com Ltd.'s overall stock score is influenced primarily by its financial performance and valuation. While there are signs of financial recovery, the company faces challenges with declining revenues and cash flow. The technical analysis suggests bearish trends, and the high P/E ratio indicates potential overvaluation, which are significant concerns for potential investors.

Kogan.com Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Kogan.com Ltd operates as an online retailer in Australia. The company offers various brands across a range of categories, including electronics, appliances, homewares, hardware, toys, and others; and owns and operates 20 private label brands. It also provides pre-paid mobile phone plans online; and directly sourced holiday packages and travel bookings. In addition, the company offers general insurances, including home, contents, landlord, car, and travel insurances, as well as pet and life insurance; NBN internet plans; and home loans. Further, it provides superannuation funds, credit cards, telecommunications services, and power and gas services, as well as trades in cars. The company provides its products under the company's brands, such as Kogan, Ovela, Fortis, Vostok, and Komodo, as well as products sourced from imported and domestic third party brands comprising Apple, Canon, Swann, and Samsung. The company was founded in 2006 and is based in Melbourne, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

Kogan.com generates revenue primarily through the sale of products on its online platform. The company makes money by selling a variety of items, including electronics, home goods, and personal care products, directly to consumers. A significant portion of its revenue comes from its private label brands, which offer higher margins compared to third-party products. Additionally, Kogan.com has expanded its revenue streams by offering services such as Kogan Mobile, Kogan Internet, and Kogan Insurance, which provide ongoing subscription fees. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships with suppliers and service providers, allowing it to offer competitive pricing and a broad product range. Affiliate marketing and advertising on its platform further contribute to its earnings.

Kogan.com Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Kogan.com Ltd. shows signs of financial recovery with improved profitability and a stable balance sheet. However, declining revenues and reduced cash flow generation compared to previous highs remain areas of concern. The company demonstrates a sound financial structure with low leverage, yet the need for renewed growth strategies is evident to bolster its top-line performance.

Income Statement

Kogan.com Ltd. has shown a recovery in profitability with a positive net income in the latest year after two years of losses. The gross profit margin improved to 36.6%, and the EBIT and EBITDA margins turned positive, indicating operational improvements. However, revenue has declined by 5.9% from the previous year and significantly from two years prior, showing challenges in top-line growth.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet remains stable with a modest debt-to-equity ratio of 0.19, reflecting low leverage. Stockholders' equity accounts for 50.8% of total assets, indicating a solid equity base. However, there has been a decrease in total assets and equity over the years, suggesting a contraction in the scale of operations.

Cash Flow

Kogan.com Ltd. experienced a significant decrease in operating cash flow compared to the prior year but maintains positive free cash flow, indicating effective capital expenditure management. The free cash flow to net income ratio is robust, but the operating cash flow to net income ratio suggests potential cash generation issues relative to net income.

Breakdown	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021	Jun 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	455.80M	488.38M	717.60M	779.39M	495.74M
Gross Profit	164.53M	135.44M	183.52M	202.36M	124.36M
EBITDA	38.09M	-19.12M	-21.43M	22.89M	48.32M
Net Income	83.00K	-25.85M	-35.46M	3.54M	26.82M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	243.43M	274.06M	360.31M	455.29M	281.42M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	41.34M	65.44M	66.23M	91.69M	146.73M
Total Debt	23.04M	15.73M	57.53M	94.53M	2.44M
Total Liabilities	119.83M	106.34M	187.67M	274.56M	117.40M
Stockholders Equity	123.60M	167.72M	172.64M	180.73M	164.03M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	23.17M	66.70M	56.28M	-67.76M	37.48M
Operating Cash Flow	28.19M	70.86M	61.84M	-63.03M	45.63M
Investing Cash Flow	-15.96M	-18.05M	-32.78M	-55.69M	-8.15M
Financing Cash Flow	-36.39M	-53.79M	-54.24M	63.76M	81.78M

Kogan.com Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 3.88
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:KGN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.88 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.96, below the 50-day MA of 3.92, and below the 200-day MA of 4.62, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.75 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 19.55 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:KGN.

Kogan.com Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SSG	79 Outperform	AU$196.52M	12.96	16.06%	7.13%	-0.69%	-6.67%
DSK	70 Outperform	AU$57.29M	9.41	13.17%	6.99%	5.42%	-8.87%
ABY	68 Neutral	AU$75.17M	42.49	4.65%	―	5.51%	244.64%
Sector *	57 Neutral	HK$24.67B	3.83	-3.22%	5.89%	0.28%	-59.63%
KGN	55 Neutral	AU$385.34M	222.99	1.28%	3.78%	4.67%	-72.98%
1FQ	―	€208.24M	9.77	14.57%	―	―	―
BBN	56 Neutral	AU$231.39M	79.30	2.78%	1.03%	-2.62%	-70.47%

Kogan.com Corporate Events

Kogan.com Announces Cessation of Performance Rights

Kogan.com announced the cessation of 84,165 performance rights due to the lapse of conditional rights, as the conditions for these securities were not met or became incapable of being satisfied. This announcement may impact the company’s capital structure and could influence investor perceptions regarding the company’s performance and future growth prospects.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:KGN) stock is a Buy with a A$8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kogan.com stock, see the AU:KGN Stock Forecast page.

Kogan.com Issues New Performance Rights to Employees

Kogan.com announced the issuance of 21,825 performance rights under an employee incentive scheme, which are not intended to be quoted on the ASX. This move is part of the company’s strategy to motivate and retain talent, potentially enhancing its operational efficiency and competitive position in the e-commerce sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:KGN) stock is a Buy with a A$8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kogan.com stock, see the AU:KGN Stock Forecast page.

Kogan.com Appoints New Company Secretary and Updates Registered Office

Kogan.com Ltd has announced the appointment of Belinda Cleminson as the new Company Secretary, replacing Mark Licciardo. This change is effective immediately and Cleminson will also handle communication with the ASX regarding listing rule matters. Additionally, the company has updated its registered office address to a new location in Sydney, though its principal place of business and contact details remain unchanged. These changes reflect Kogan.com’s ongoing efforts to streamline its operations and maintain effective governance.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:KGN) stock is a Buy with a A$8.20 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kogan.com stock, see the AU:KGN Stock Forecast page.

Kogan.com Reports Robust Growth Amidst Challenges

Kogan.com Ltd reported strong sales growth and profit margins for the period ending April 2025, driven by its Kogan FIRST, Marketplace, and Verticals divisions. With a 24% increase in gross sales and a 16% rise in gross profit, the company reinvested in marketing, enhancing its loyalty program and ecosystem. Despite technical challenges at Mighty Ape, which affected its sales and inventory, early recovery signs are visible. The group achieved a 5% adjusted EBITDA margin, with expectations of improvement as marketing investments yield results and technical issues are resolved.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:KGN) stock is a Buy with a A$8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kogan.com stock, see the AU:KGN Stock Forecast page.

Kogan.com Updates on Share Buy-Back Progress

Kogan.com has announced an update on its ongoing share buy-back program, revealing that a total of 9,192,433 ordinary fully paid securities have been repurchased, including 5,283 on the previous day. This buy-back initiative is part of the company’s strategy to enhance shareholder value and optimize its capital structure, potentially impacting its market positioning by signaling confidence in its financial health.

Kogan.com Updates on Share Buy-Back Program

Kogan.com has announced an update regarding its ongoing share buy-back program, with a recent purchase of 5,357 ordinary fully paid securities. This move is part of the company’s strategy to manage its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value, reflecting a proactive approach in its financial management.

Kogan.com Updates on Share Buy-Back Program

Kogan.com has announced an update on its ongoing share buy-back program, reporting the purchase of 5,482 ordinary fully paid shares on the previous day. This buy-back initiative, which began on April 26, 2023, is part of the company’s strategy to manage its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value.

Kogan.com Updates on Share Buy-Back Program

Kogan.com has announced an update regarding its ongoing share buy-back program, with a total of 9,165,454 ordinary fully paid securities bought back before the previous day and an additional 5,410 securities bought back on the previous day. This buy-back initiative is part of the company’s strategy to optimize its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value, reflecting a proactive approach to managing its financial resources.