Guzman y Gomez Ltd. (GYG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$1.93B
• Dividend Yield: 0.56%
• Average Volume (3M): 548.54K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 52.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.98
• Revenue Growth: 27.40%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: AU
• Employees: 13,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Restaurants
• EPS (TTM): 0.16
• Shares Outstanding: 102,692,566
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 433,588
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 548,538
• PEG Ratio: -1.06
• Price to Book (P/B): 7.55
• Price to Sales (P/S): 6.18
• P/FCF Ratio: -711.52
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: AU$22.16
• Price Target Upside: 4.39% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.2
• Revenue Forecast (FY): AU$545.40M

• Rating: 50 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$19.50 ▼(-8.15% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/27/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/27/26

The score is held back primarily by weak technical trend signals (below all major moving averages and negative MACD) and an expensive valuation (P/E 103.38 with only ~0.70% yield). Financial performance is mixed: strong revenue growth and gross margin are offset by low net profitability and deteriorating free cash flow.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Sustained 52% top-line expansion indicates strong product-market fit and successful unit rollouts or same-store sales. Over 2-6 months this growth supports scale benefits, stronger negotiating power with suppliers, and a larger base to convert into improved operating leverage and franchise income.

High Gross Margin

A 75%+ gross margin signals meaningful pricing power and efficient cost of goods management in the menu-driven QSR model. Durable gross margin provides a structural buffer for rising labor or occupancy costs and underpins the ability to invest in marketing, technology, or unit growth.

Manageable Leverage / Stable Capital Structure

A sub-1.0 debt-to-equity and ~48% equity ratio reflect a balanced funding mix that preserves flexibility to finance new restaurant openings or support franchise partners. This capital structure reduces refinancing risk and supports multi-period expansion plans.

Negative Factors

Low Net Profit Margin

A single-digit net margin near 3% limits retained earnings and reduces the company’s ability to self-fund growth or absorb cost shocks. Even with strong revenue, persistent low net profitability undermines long-term ROI and shareholder return generation.

Deteriorating Free Cash Flow

A steep -59% FCF decline and negative FCF-to-income suggest cash generation is lagging reported profits. Over months this constrains reinvestment, slows franchise financing, and may force external funding or slower unit rollouts, increasing execution risk.

Suboptimal Cash Conversion

An OCF-to-net-income ratio well below 1 implies earnings are not fully converted into cash, possibly due to working capital or capex needs. This persistent cash conversion gap weakens balance sheet liquidity and limits free cash available for debt reduction or shareholder returns.

Guzman y Gomez Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Guzman y Gomez Ltd. (GYG) is an Australian-based fast-casual restaurant chain specializing in Mexican cuisine. Founded in 2006, the company has established itself as a prominent player in the quick-service restaurant sector, offering a diverse menu that includes burritos, tacos, nachos, and fresh-made salsas. GYG focuses on providing high-quality, made-to-order meals using fresh ingredients, and emphasizes a strong commitment to customer experience. With a growing number of locations across Australia and expanding into international markets, GYG aims to deliver authentic Mexican flavors in a vibrant dining atmosphere.

How the Company Makes Money

Guzman y Gomez generates revenue primarily through its restaurant operations, which include dine-in, takeout, and drive-thru services. The company earns money by selling its core menu items, which are priced to appeal to a broad customer base. Additionally, GYG has developed a successful catering business that provides food services for events, further diversifying its revenue streams. The company also benefits from partnerships with delivery services, allowing it to reach customers through third-party platforms, thereby increasing sales. Promotions, loyalty programs, and seasonal menu offerings contribute to customer retention and repeat business, enhancing overall profitability.

Guzman y Gomez Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong top-line growth (52.14%) and a high gross margin (75.47%) are positives, but low net margin (3.12%) and weak cash generation (free cash flow growth -59% and negative FCF-to-net-income) materially weigh on overall financial quality despite a generally manageable leverage profile (debt-to-equity 0.87).

Income Statement

Guzman y Gomez Ltd. has shown impressive revenue growth of 52.14% in the latest year, indicating strong market demand and expansion. The gross profit margin is robust at 75.47%, reflecting efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin is relatively low at 3.12%, suggesting room for improvement in profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are moderate, indicating operational efficiency but also highlighting potential for cost optimization.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio of 0.87 is manageable, showing a balanced approach to leveraging. Return on equity is modest at 3.81%, indicating moderate profitability relative to shareholder equity. The equity ratio stands at 48.52%, suggesting a stable capital structure but also highlighting potential risks if debt levels increase.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement reveals challenges with a negative free cash flow growth rate of -59%, indicating potential liquidity issues. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 0.67 suggests that operating activities are generating cash, but the negative free cash flow to net income ratio highlights concerns about cash availability for reinvestment or debt repayment.

Breakdown	TTM	Jun 2025	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	484.76M	464.61M	342.21M	259.04M	171.79M	119.53M
Gross Profit	110.66M	350.66M	69.78M	188.62M	126.89M	84.67M
EBITDA	97.64M	69.02M	33.29M	34.21M	27.08M	21.59M
Net Income	17.75M	14.48M	-13.75M	-2.27M	3.90M	3.99M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	789.25M	783.20M	661.80M	324.51M	248.43M	210.38M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	236.40M	281.74M	294.48M	36.50M	54.43M	62.09M
Total Debt	715.08M	331.31M	239.50M	184.72M	129.93M	115.94M
Total Liabilities	432.01M	403.07M	307.82M	236.54M	167.33M	144.06M
Stockholders Equity	357.24M	380.12M	353.98M	87.97M	81.10M	66.32M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	9.55M	-4.04M	9.37M	-11.53M	-6.76M	7.90M
Operating Cash Flow	72.13M	57.33M	42.87M	31.13M	19.64M	23.07M
Investing Cash Flow	2.12M	-34.55M	-311.82M	-48.40M	-31.70M	-17.56M
Financing Cash Flow	-45.20M	679.00K	248.83M	-651.00K	4.39M	32.22M

Guzman y Gomez Ltd. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 21.23
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:GYG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 21.23 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.86, above the 50-day MA of 20.33, and below the 200-day MA of 24.23, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.49 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.25 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 46.46 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:GYG.

Guzman y Gomez Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AX1	72 Outperform	AU$540.89M	5.06	7.94%	7.33%	1.58%	-4.71%
CKF	69 Neutral	AU$1.19B	11.61	2.89%	2.67%	4.61%	-76.47%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
DMP	56 Neutral	AU$1.74B	12.12	8.83%	3.58%	-3.09%	-104.37%
GYG	50 Neutral	AU$1.93B	52.00	4.82%	0.56%	27.40%	―
RFG	48 Neutral	$65.33M	11.71	-10.34%	―	10.13%	-353.94%
OLI	41 Neutral	AU$3.79M	1.09	―	―	-6.32%	-9.62%

Guzman y Gomez Ltd. Corporate Events

Guzman y Gomez Advances On-Market Share Buy-Back Program

Guzman y Gomez has reported a further update to its on-market share buy-back program, confirming that it repurchased 133,338 ordinary fully paid shares on the previous trading day. This takes the cumulative number of shares bought back under the current program to 1,511,824, signalling the company’s ongoing capital management efforts and potential confidence in its valuation, which may be closely watched by existing shareholders and market participants.

The buy-back was originally notified in October 2025 and this latest disclosure, dated 27 February 2026, maintains transparency around the daily progress of the initiative. Regular updates to the buy-back figures help investors track the scale and pace of the program, providing insight into how actively the company is deploying capital to reduce its share count and potentially enhance earnings per share over time.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GYG) stock is a Hold with a A$18.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Guzman y Gomez Ltd. stock, see the AU:GYG Stock Forecast page.

Guzman y Gomez Updates Market on Ongoing On-Market Share Buy-Back

Guzman y Gomez has provided an updated notification to the ASX on its ongoing on-market share buy-back program for its ordinary fully paid securities. The latest daily report, dated 25 February 2026, confirms that a total of 1,272,671 shares had been repurchased before the previous trading day, with an additional 138,272 shares bought back on the previous day under the same program.

The company’s continued execution of this buy-back, first notified in October 2025 and now updated from the prior day’s disclosure, indicates active capital management and a reduction in the number of shares on issue. This process can enhance earnings per share and signal confidence in the company’s valuation, with implications for existing shareholders and the liquidity of GYG stock on the ASX.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GYG) stock is a Hold with a A$17.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Guzman y Gomez Ltd. stock, see the AU:GYG Stock Forecast page.

Guzman y Gomez Updates Investors on Ongoing On‑Market Share Buy‑Back

Guzman y Gomez Limited has reported updated figures for its on‑market share buy‑back program involving its ordinary fully paid shares trading under the ASX code GYG. The company disclosed that, as of the latest daily notification dated 24 February 2026, it has repurchased a cumulative 1,173,336 shares prior to the previous day and a further 99,335 shares on the previous trading day.

The ongoing on‑market buy‑back signals continued capital management activity by Guzman y Gomez as it adjusts its share base. This sustained repurchase effort may support earnings per share over time and can be interpreted as an indication of management’s confidence in the company’s valuation, with implications for existing shareholders and market perception of the stock.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GYG) stock is a Hold with a A$18.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Guzman y Gomez Ltd. stock, see the AU:GYG Stock Forecast page.

Guzman y Gomez Rides Strong H1 Momentum as Tech and New Stores Fuel Expansion

Guzman y Gomez reported strong momentum in the first half of fiscal 2026, highlighting record guest counts and transactions driven by new menu campaigns such as its Caesar range and viral limited-time offers in Australia and Singapore. The group also advanced its kitchen innovation, upgrading its point-of-sale platform, piloting a proprietary order management system, digitising food safety controls and exploring AI and automation to improve order accuracy and operational efficiency.

The company’s Australian network continues to deliver robust economics, with high average unit volumes and strong restaurant margins supporting an accelerated rollout of new sites, including 15 openings in the half and a full-year plan for 32 new Australian restaurants backed by a large pipeline of predominantly drive-thru locations. Internationally, Guzman y Gomez is investing cautiously in the U.S., where network sales rose 67% from a small base, and management has capped expansion at 15 restaurants until a proven model emerges, underscoring a disciplined approach to protecting long-term shareholder value while building brand awareness and sales momentum.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GYG) stock is a Hold with a A$19.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Guzman y Gomez Ltd. stock, see the AU:GYG Stock Forecast page.

Guzman y Gomez Posts Record Half-Year Profit as Drive-Thru Expansion Accelerates

Guzman y Gomez reported record first-half FY26 earnings, with global network sales up 18.0% to $681.8 million and group segment underlying EBITDA rising 23.3% to $33.0 million, underscoring strong operating leverage. The Australia segment, which includes Singapore and Japan, delivered $673.6 million in network sales and 30.0% growth in segment underlying EBITDA to $41.3 million, while NPAT climbed 44.9% to $10.6 million and the company maintained a debt-free balance sheet with $236.4 million in cash and term deposits.

The fast-growing chain opened 17 new restaurants in the half, taking its global footprint to 272 sites, and plans to open 32 new outlets in Australia in FY26, supported by a robust pipeline of 108 secured locations, more than 85% of which are drive-thru. Strong restaurant-level economics, including 9.8% sales growth and margins above 21% at Australian franchise stores and even higher sales and margins at drive-thru outlets, reinforce management’s confidence in accelerating the network rollout and support a fully franked interim dividend of 7.4 cents per share for shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GYG) stock is a Hold with a A$19.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Guzman y Gomez Ltd. stock, see the AU:GYG Stock Forecast page.

Guzman y Gomez Lifts Half-Year Profit, Declares Interim Dividend and Advances Buyback

Guzman y Gomez reported strong growth for the half-year ended 31 December 2025, with revenue from ordinary activities up 23% to $261.2 million and EBITDA rising 30% to $40.9 million, while profit after tax climbed 45% to $10.6 million. Basic earnings per share increased 45% to 10.4 cents, and the company declared a fully franked interim dividend of 7.4 cents per share following a 12.6 cent dividend paid in September 2025.

The group also advanced its capital management strategy, commencing an on-market share buyback in October 2025 and repurchasing 1,173,336 shares at an average price of $23.014 by year-end. Despite a 6% decline in net tangible asset backing per share to 334.5 cents, the reviewed half-year report received an unmodified auditor’s conclusion, reinforcing confidence in the company’s financial reporting and its positioning to reward shareholders through dividends and buybacks.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GYG) stock is a Hold with a A$19.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Guzman y Gomez Ltd. stock, see the AU:GYG Stock Forecast page.

Guzman y Gomez Director Steven Marks Exercises Options to Boost Shareholding

Guzman y Gomez has disclosed a change in the holdings of director Steven Marks, who has increased his directly held ordinary shares through the exercise of options. Marks converted 1,030,750 options into the same number of fully paid ordinary shares at $15.828 per share, taking his direct shareholding to 3,273,000 shares and eliminating his option position.

His indirect holdings via family entities remain unchanged, with significant stakes held through the Marks Family Superfund and the Marks Family Trust. The transaction, which occurred with prior written clearance during a closed period, consolidates Marks’ exposure in the company’s equity and may be seen as a signal of confidence in Guzman y Gomez’s long-term prospects by a key insider.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GYG) stock is a Hold with a A$22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Guzman y Gomez Ltd. stock, see the AU:GYG Stock Forecast page.

Guzman y Gomez Seeks ASX Quotation for Over 1 Million New Shares

Guzman y Gomez Ltd., the ASX-listed fast-casual Mexican food chain, has expanded its pool of ordinary fully paid shares on issue, reflecting ongoing use of equity markets as part of its capital structure. The company continues to position itself as a growth-focused public issuer, maintaining active engagement with the securities market through incremental share quotations.

The company has applied to the ASX for quotation of 1,030,750 additional ordinary fully paid shares under code GYG, with an issue date of 9 February 2026. These new securities arise from the exercise or conversion of existing options or other convertible instruments, modestly increasing the free float available to investors and potentially enhancing liquidity in GYG shares.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GYG) stock is a Hold with a A$22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Guzman y Gomez Ltd. stock, see the AU:GYG Stock Forecast page.

Capital Group Exits Substantial Shareholding in Guzman y Gomez

The Capital Group Companies, Inc. and its related entities, including Capital Research and Management Company, have lodged a notice stating they have ceased to be a substantial shareholder in Guzman y Gomez Ltd. as of 27 January 2026. The change in status follows a series of on‑market trades between April 2025 and January 2026, culminating in sizable disposals of Guzman y Gomez common stock on 27 January 2026, which reduced Capital Group’s relevant interest below the substantial holding threshold, signaling a notable shift in the company’s institutional investor base that may affect perceptions of its shareholder structure and liquidity.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GYG) stock is a Sell with a A$21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Guzman y Gomez Ltd. stock, see the AU:GYG Stock Forecast page.

Guzman y Gomez Strikes Exclusive Uber Eats Delivery Deal in Australia

Guzman y Gomez has signed a multi-year agreement making Uber Eats its exclusive delivery partner in Australia from 22 February 2026, deepening an existing relationship that already underpins the company’s white-label GYG Delivery service. Under the deal, GYG and Uber will increase joint investment to offer guests greater value, choice and convenience, while the improved commercial terms are aimed at strengthening delivery channel economics, supporting sales growth and benefiting franchisees through measures designed to mitigate any disruption from transitioning to exclusivity; with delivery already accounting for around 27% of GYG’s Australian sales in the first half of FY26, the partnership further entrenches delivery as a key growth driver in its domestic market, while GYG maintains multiple delivery partners in its international operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GYG) stock is a Hold with a A$24.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Guzman y Gomez Ltd. stock, see the AU:GYG Stock Forecast page.

Guzman y Gomez Sets Date for 2026 Half-Year Results and Analyst Briefing

Guzman y Gomez has announced that it will release its 2026 half-year financial results on Friday, 20 February 2026, providing investors and analysts with an update on the company’s performance in the first half of the financial year. Following the results release, the company will host a webcast analyst briefing at 10:00am AEDT via its website, underscoring its efforts to maintain transparent communication with the market and key stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GYG) stock is a Hold with a A$24.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Guzman y Gomez Ltd. stock, see the AU:GYG Stock Forecast page.

Guzman y Gomez Announces Lapse and Expiry of 28,500 Options

Guzman y Gomez Limited has notified the ASX that a total of 28,500 options over its securities have ceased, reflecting changes in its issued capital structure. The cessation comprises 18,250 options that expired unexercised on 25 November 2025 and 10,250 conditional rights that lapsed on 15 December 2025 because their vesting conditions were not, or could no longer be, satisfied, slightly reducing potential future dilution for existing shareholders and clarifying the company’s outstanding equity-based instruments.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GYG) stock is a Sell with a A$21.05 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Guzman y Gomez Ltd. stock, see the AU:GYG Stock Forecast page.

Guzman y Gomez Seeks ASX Quotation for Additional Ordinary Shares

Guzman y Gomez Limited has applied for quotation on the ASX of 207,341 ordinary fully paid shares, with an issue date of 10 November 2025. The move modestly increases the company’s quoted share capital and reflects ongoing capital management activities that may support future operational or strategic initiatives, with implications for existing shareholders through a slight expansion of the equity base.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GYG) stock is a Sell with a A$21.05 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Guzman y Gomez Ltd. stock, see the AU:GYG Stock Forecast page.

Guzman y Gomez Seeks ASX Quotation for 66,104 New Ordinary Shares

Guzman y Gomez Ltd has applied for quotation on the ASX of a total of 66,104 additional ordinary fully paid shares, issued on various dates in November 2025. The new securities arise from the exercise or conversion of existing options or other convertible securities and will incrementally increase the company’s free float and share capital, modestly expanding the pool of tradable GYG stock for investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GYG) stock is a Sell with a A$21.05 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Guzman y Gomez Ltd. stock, see the AU:GYG Stock Forecast page.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. Ceases Substantial Holding in Guzman y Gomez Ltd.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates have ceased to be substantial holders in Guzman y Gomez Ltd. This change involves various transactions including securities on loan and securities received as collateral, impacting the voting securities of the company. The announcement indicates a shift in the company’s shareholder structure, which may influence its market positioning and stakeholder dynamics.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GYG) stock is a Buy with a A$32.30 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Guzman y Gomez Ltd. stock, see the AU:GYG Stock Forecast page.

Guzman y Gomez Ltd. Announces Cessation of Securities

Guzman y Gomez Ltd. announced the cessation of 972,882 ordinary fully paid securities due to an on-market buy-back, effective December 2, 2025. This move reflects the company’s strategic financial management, potentially impacting its capital structure and signaling confidence in its market position to stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GYG) stock is a Sell with a A$21.05 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Guzman y Gomez Ltd. stock, see the AU:GYG Stock Forecast page.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. Ceases Substantial Holding in Guzman y Gomez Ltd.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates have ceased to be substantial holders in Guzman y Gomez Ltd., as indicated by changes in their relevant interests in the company’s voting securities. This change in holding, involving various transactions such as securities on loan, purchase and sales, and rehypothecation, marks a significant shift in the company’s shareholder structure, potentially impacting its market dynamics and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GYG) stock is a Sell with a A$21.05 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Guzman y Gomez Ltd. stock, see the AU:GYG Stock Forecast page.

Guzman y Gomez Ltd. Updates on Securities Buy-Back Program

Guzman y Gomez Ltd. announced an update regarding its ongoing on-market buy-back program. As of November 28, 2025, the company has repurchased a total of 1,173,336 ordinary fully paid securities, with 6,186 bought back on the previous day. This buy-back initiative is part of the company’s strategy to manage its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:GYG) stock is a Sell with a A$21.05 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Guzman y Gomez Ltd. stock, see the AU:GYG Stock Forecast page.