Retail Food Group (RFG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$86.84M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 77.11K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.14
• Revenue Growth: 10.13%
• EPS Growth: -353.94%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 59
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Restaurants
• EPS (TTM): 0.10
• Shares Outstanding: 62,930,790
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 76,015
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 77,112
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: AU$2.55
• Price Target Upside: 84.92% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2

• Rating: 53 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$1.50 ▲(8.70% Upside)

Retail Food Group's overall stock score is driven by strong revenue growth and improving cash flow metrics, but is hindered by profitability challenges and a negative P/E ratio. The technical analysis presents a mixed picture, with bearish trends but neutral momentum indicators. The absence of earnings call insights and corporate events leaves the financial and technical aspects as the primary influences on the score.

Retail Food Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Retail Food Group (RFG) is an Australian company that operates in the food and beverage sector, specializing in the franchising of retail food brands. With a diverse portfolio that includes well-known brands such as Donut King, Brumby's Bakeries, and Michel's Patisserie, RFG focuses on providing quality food products and a comprehensive support system for franchisees. The company is involved in the manufacturing and distribution of food products, as well as the development and management of its franchise network, catering primarily to the fast-food and retail bakery markets.

How the Company Makes Money

Retail Food Group generates revenue primarily through its franchising operations, where it charges franchisees initial fees and ongoing royalties based on their sales. The company also earns income from the manufacturing and supply of food products to its franchise network, ensuring consistent quality and supply. Additionally, RFG benefits from product sales through its retail outlets and any associated licensing agreements. Key partnerships with suppliers and distributors further enhance its revenue streams by optimizing cost efficiencies and expanding market reach. Factors contributing to its earnings include brand recognition, a loyal customer base, and the scalability of its franchise model.

Retail Food Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Retail Food Group shows strong revenue growth but struggles with profitability, as indicated by negative net profit and EBIT margins. The balance sheet reflects moderate leverage and a solid equity base, but the negative return on equity is a concern. Cash flow metrics are improving, with significant growth in free cash flow, suggesting enhanced cash generation. Overall, while there are positive trends in revenue and cash flow, profitability and return metrics require attention.

Income Statement

Retail Food Group shows a mixed performance in its income statement. The company has experienced significant revenue growth, with a 77.1% increase in the latest period, indicating strong top-line expansion. However, profitability metrics are concerning, with a negative net profit margin of -10.82% and a negative EBIT margin of -10.15%, reflecting operational challenges. The gross profit margin remains healthy at 70.46%, suggesting efficient cost management at the production level. Overall, while revenue growth is promising, the company struggles with profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Retail Food Group presents a stable financial structure with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.65, indicating moderate leverage. However, the return on equity is negative at -7.65%, highlighting challenges in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio stands at 54.08%, suggesting a solid equity base relative to total assets. While the company maintains a reasonable debt level, the negative ROE points to inefficiencies in utilizing equity capital.

Cash Flow

Retail Food Group's cash flow statement reveals positive trends, with a substantial free cash flow growth rate of 199.2%, indicating improved cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.22, suggesting that operating activities are contributing positively to cash flow. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.72, reflecting a decent conversion of earnings into free cash flow. Despite past challenges, the company shows potential in enhancing its cash flow position.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	137.87M	137.87M	125.18M	111.37M	102.58M	109.10M
Gross Profit	71.02M	97.14M	90.88M	54.38M	50.77M	52.19M
EBITDA	-7.69M	-3.78M	26.58M	1.42M	19.28M	24.52M
Net Income	-14.92M	-14.92M	5.79M	-8.95M	5.26M	1.46M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	360.58M	360.58M	368.74M	348.89M	350.08M	369.76M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	26.00M	26.00M	20.64M	22.26M	29.22M	34.65M
Total Debt	125.94M	125.94M	113.62M	110.64M	128.42M	153.38M
Total Liabilities	165.60M	165.60M	160.73M	149.18M	166.30M	191.91M
Stockholders Equity	194.98M	194.98M	208.01M	199.71M	183.78M	177.86M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	11.71M	13.31M	10.32M	-4.93M	12.34M	8.41M
Operating Cash Flow	16.81M	18.41M	15.36M	-1.20M	15.43M	11.07M
Investing Cash Flow	-6.99M	-6.25M	-9.91M	-2.21M	-828.00K	1.88M
Financing Cash Flow	-3.01M	-6.80M	-7.09M	-3.61M	-20.24M	-18.43M

Retail Food Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 1.38
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:RFG, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 1.38 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.29, below the 50-day MA of 1.40, and below the 200-day MA of 1.81, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.37 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.49 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AU:RFG.

Retail Food Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MTO	―	AU$287.85M	15.97	8.86%	3.47%	11.62%	―
CKF	―	AU$1.29B	145.33	2.40%	2.39%	2.06%	-84.35%
Sector *	―	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
DMP	―	$1.57B	―	-0.70%	4.50%	-3.09%	-104.37%
GYG	―	AU$2.62B	177.77	3.94%	0.48%	27.40%	―
RFG	―	AU$86.84M	―	-6.95%	―	10.13%	-353.94%
OLI	―	AU$6.49M	―	―	―	-6.32%	-9.62%

Retail Food Group Corporate Events

Retail Food Group Announces Director Retirement and AGM Details

Retail Food Group Limited announced the retirement of Independent Non-Executive Director Kerry Ryan, who will not seek re-election at the upcoming Annual General Meeting. Kerry Ryan has significantly contributed to the company over her decade-long tenure, particularly in times of substantial change. The company also announced the date for its 2025 Annual General Meeting and the deadline for director nominations, indicating ongoing governance and leadership transitions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:RFG) stock is a Hold with a A$1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Retail Food Group stock, see the AU:RFG Stock Forecast page.

Retail Food Group CEO Resigns, Chairman Steps In During Global Search

Retail Food Group Limited has announced the resignation of CEO Matt Marshall, with Non-executive Chairman Peter George stepping in as Executive Chairman while a global search for a new CEO is conducted. The company aims to find a leader with substantial franchise experience to continue its focus on core brands and expansion plans. Under Marshall’s leadership, RFG saw improvements in performance and resolved legacy issues, enhancing its focus on brands with growth potential. The company remains committed to expanding its domestic and international presence, particularly with the introduction of Firehouse Subs in Australia.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:RFG) stock is a Hold with a A$1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Retail Food Group stock, see the AU:RFG Stock Forecast page.

Retail Food Group Chairman Sells Shares to Cover Tax Liabilities

Retail Food Group Limited announced that its Non-Executive Chairman, Mr. Peter George, has sold 335,000 shares to cover personal tax liabilities. This decision was influenced by the significant portion of his liquid assets tied to these shares and his personal financial needs. The sale, which was approved by the company’s Board of Directors and conducted in line with the company’s Share Trading Policy, marks the first time Mr. George has sold shares since joining the board in 2018. Following this transaction, he retains 79,125 shares in the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:RFG) stock is a Buy with a A$2.60 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Retail Food Group stock, see the AU:RFG Stock Forecast page.

Retail Food Group Unveils FY25 Financial Results and Expansion Plans

Retail Food Group Limited has released its FY25 financial results, authorized by the Board of Directors. The company, known for managing multiple retail food franchises, continues to expand its brand portfolio and market presence. The announcement highlights RFG’s strategic growth plans, including the anticipated opening of the first Firehouse Subs restaurant in Australia by mid FY26, which could enhance its competitive positioning and offer new opportunities for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:RFG) stock is a Hold with a A$2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Retail Food Group stock, see the AU:RFG Stock Forecast page.

Retail Food Group Reports Growth and Strategic Expansion Plans for FY25

Retail Food Group Limited reported a second consecutive year of growth in FY25, achieving an underlying EBITDA of $29.6 million. The company has signed a development agreement to introduce Firehouse Subs to Australia, aiming to open 165 restaurants over the next decade. RFG is focusing on expanding Beefy’s Pies and Firehouse Subs, while considering divestment options for Brumby’s Bakery. The company is also prioritizing the transition of other brand outlets to franchise ownership or closure, aligning with its strategy to streamline operations and focus on core growth areas.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:RFG) stock is a Hold with a A$2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Retail Food Group stock, see the AU:RFG Stock Forecast page.

Retail Food Group Releases FY25 Annual Report, Highlights Strategic Growth

Retail Food Group Limited has released its FY25 Annual Report, highlighting a year focused on enhancing customer experience across its operations. The report underscores RFG’s strategic initiatives, including the upcoming launch of Firehouse Subs in Australia, which is expected to bolster its market presence and offer new growth opportunities. This development is anticipated to positively impact stakeholders by expanding the company’s brand portfolio and strengthening its position in the competitive food and beverage industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:RFG) stock is a Hold with a A$2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Retail Food Group stock, see the AU:RFG Stock Forecast page.

Retail Food Group Reports Revenue Growth Amidst Profit Decline

Retail Food Group Limited reported an 8.5% increase in revenues to A$143,243,000 for the year ended June 27, 2025, compared to the previous year. However, the company experienced a significant decline in reported EBITDA by 29.5% and a substantial loss before income tax, down 322.6% to a loss of A$19,471,000. This financial performance reflects challenges in company store performance and strategic adjustments, impacting its profitability and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:RFG) stock is a Hold with a A$2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Retail Food Group stock, see the AU:RFG Stock Forecast page.

Retail Food Group to Announce FY25 Results and Host Investor Webinar

Retail Food Group Limited has announced that it will release its financial results for the fiscal year ending June 27, 2025, on August 20, 2025. CEO Matt Marshall and CFO Rob Shore will host a webinar for analysts and investors to discuss the results, allowing participants to engage directly with the management. This announcement is part of RFG’s efforts to maintain transparency with its stakeholders and could impact investor sentiment and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:RFG) stock is a Buy with a A$4.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Retail Food Group stock, see the AU:RFG Stock Forecast page.