Retail Food Group (AU:RFG)
ASX:RFG
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Retail Food Group
(Sydney:RFG)
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Rating:48Neutral
Price Target:
AU$0.85
â–Ľ(-11.88% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/26/26
The score is held back mainly by weak technicals (downtrend across moving averages, negative MACD) and ongoing profitability/return challenges (negative margins and ROE). Offsetting factors include improving cash-flow trends, moderate leverage, and management’s reiterated FY26 EBITDA guidance with cost-out and refinancing actions, but near-term operating and trading softness keeps the overall rating below average.
Positive Factors
Free cash flow improvement
RFG shows a marked improvement in cash generation with free cash flow growth of ~199% and a free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.72. This stronger conversion provides durable internal funding to support franchise initiatives, cushion operational swings and reduce reliance on external capital over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Negative profitability metrics
Despite revenue gains, the company reports persistent negative operating and net margins, which is a structural concern. Ongoing loss-making operations erode equity, limit reinvestment in brand support and store growth, and make sustained franchisor fee and royalty generation less reliable over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Free cash flow improvement
RFG shows a marked improvement in cash generation with free cash flow growth of ~199% and a free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.72. This stronger conversion provides durable internal funding to support franchise initiatives, cushion operational swings and reduce reliance on external capital over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Retail Food Group (RFG) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$53.73M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)49.49K
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.7
Beta (1Y)-0.25
Revenue Growth-0.47%
EPS Growth-326.66%
CountryAU
Employees59
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.57
Shares Outstanding63,209,404
10 Day Avg. Volume29,385
30 Day Avg. Volume49,494
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.64
Price to Sales (P/S)0.91
P/FCF Ratio9.44
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$2.20Price Target Upside129.17% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.15
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$112.00M
Retail Food Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Retail Food Group Limited, a food and beverage company, engages in the management of a multi-brand retail food and beverage franchise in Australia and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Bakery/Café, QSR, Coffee Retail, an...
How the Company Makes Money
RFG primarily makes money through franchising-related income generated from its network of franchised outlets. Key revenue streams typically include: (1) Franchise fees: upfront fees paid by franchisees when entering the system or when new stores ...
Retail Food Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 26, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Negative
The call presents a mixed but challenging near-term picture: material declines in H1 profitability (underlying EBITDA down 43%, statutory NPAT down materially) and weaker operating cash flow and early 2026 trading are significant negatives. Management has offsetting positives — a completed refinancing, progress on the company-store reset, operational cost-savings already realized, product and format wins (Glorange, Donut King, Crust), the operational Turkiye hub and a funded Firehouse Subs rollout — and has reiterated FY26 EBITDA guidance that implies H2 improvement. However, H1 financial deterioration and several operational underperformance areas (coffee margins, new Beefy's ramp-up and company-store losses) are sizeable and dominant in the short term.Positive Updates
Core Brands: Positive Underlying Trading Signals
Core brands network sales +0.8%, same-store sales +0.2% and core brand average weekly sales +0.9%, demonstrating improving network quality and underlying brand resilience despite a reduction in store numbers.
Negative Updates
Material Decline in Underlying EBITDA and Profitability
H1 underlying EBITDA declined 43% to $9.2M (within the previously signalled $9M–$10M H1 range). Statutory NPAT fell to $2.0M from $7.3M in the prior corresponding period, reflecting weaker margins, one-off cycling and lower lease impairment benefits.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Core Brands: Positive Underlying Trading Signals
Core brands network sales +0.8%, same-store sales +0.2% and core brand average weekly sales +0.9%, demonstrating improving network quality and underlying brand resilience despite a reduction in store numbers.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
RFG reiterated FY‑26 underlying EBITDA guidance of $20–24m (implying a meaningful H2 improvement versus H1) after H1 underlying EBITDA of $9.2m (‑43% YoY) and underlying revenue down 1% (domestic network sales $254.6m, down 1%); other key metrics cited were domestic outlets 693 (‑29), core brands network sales +0.8% with same‑store sales +0.2% and average weekly sales +0.9%, CCB same‑store ‑0.4% (network ‑2.4%, avg weekly +1.7%, avg transaction +4%), QSR network +2.8% (SSS +1.6%), Beefy’s network +19% (SSS +4.6%, network avg weekly $28k; seven newer stores avg $15k), company‑store cash outflows $2.1m in H1 with 70% of 50 targeted transitions complete, operating cash flow down $9.9m YoY, cash $16.7m (incl $11.3m restricted), drawn borrowings $32.5m and post‑period new $41.2m facility (with $7.5m additional availability); management expects gross‑margin improvement from a wholesale coffee price increase in March, H2 cost‑out of $1.2–1.8m (current run‑rate already achieved) and FY‑27 annualised savings of $5.7–7.0m to drive the H2 turnaround and cash‑flow recovery.Retail Food Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 136.16M | 137.87M | 125.18M | 111.37M | 102.58M | 109.10M |
| Gross Profit | 44.69M | 97.14M | 90.88M | 54.38M | 50.77M | 52.19M |
| EBITDA | -14.94M | -3.78M | 26.58M | 1.42M | 19.28M | 24.52M |
| Net Income | -20.27M | -14.92M | 5.79M | -8.95M | 5.26M | 1.46M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 352.38M | 360.58M | 368.74M | 348.89M | 350.08M | 369.76M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 16.75M | 26.00M | 20.64M | 22.26M | 29.22M | 34.65M |
| Total Debt | 174.14M | 125.94M | 113.62M | 110.64M | 128.42M | 153.38M |
| Total Liabilities | 155.46M | 165.60M | 160.73M | 149.18M | 166.30M | 191.91M |
| Stockholders Equity | 196.93M | 194.98M | 208.01M | 199.71M | 183.78M | 177.86M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.59M | 13.31M | 10.32M | -4.93M | 12.34M | 8.41M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 5.05M | 18.41M | 15.36M | -1.20M | 15.43M | 11.07M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -6.89M | -6.25M | -9.91M | -2.21M | -828.00K | 1.88M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.75M | -6.80M | -7.09M | -3.61M | -20.24M | -18.43M |
Retail Food Group Technical Analysis
Negative
0.96
Price Trends
1.05
Negative
1.29
Negative
1.44
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.04
Negative
37.16
Neutral
7.41
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:RFG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.96 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.99, below the 50-day MA of 1.05, and below the 200-day MA of 1.44, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 37.16 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 7.41 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:RFG.
Retail Food Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | AU$969.90M | 11.61 | 2.89% | 2.67% | 4.61% | -76.47% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
59 Neutral | AU$1.54B | 12.12 | 8.83% | 3.58% | -1.35% | 258.94% | |
57 Neutral | AU$1.87B | 52.00 | 4.82% | 0.56% | 25.22% | ― | |
56 Neutral | AU$169.82M | 16.20 | 48.57% | 5.00% | 4.81% | 6.37% | |
48 Neutral | AU$53.73M | 11.71 | -10.34% | ― | -0.47% | -326.66% | |
46 Neutral | AU$3.79M | 1.09 | 5.84% | ― | -8.96% | 69.23% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
AU:RFG
Retail Food Group
0.85
-0.93
-52.25%
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Domino's Pizza Enterprises Limited
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AU:OLI
Oliver's Real Food Ltd.
0.01
0.00
0.00%
AU:GYG
Guzman y Gomez Ltd.
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Retail Food Group Corporate Events
Retail Food Group Lists Additional 50,000 Shares on ASX
Apr 17, 2026
Retail Food Group Limited has applied for quotation on the ASX of 50,000 new ordinary fully paid shares, which were issued on 16 April 2026. The move modestly increases the company’s quoted capital base and reflects the conversion or exercis...
Retail Food Group Performance Rights Lapse Alters Capital Structure
Mar 26, 2026
Retail Food Group Limited has reported a change to its issued capital following the lapse of certain performance rights. The company notified the ASX that 35,470 performance rights, trading under the code RFGAL, have ceased because the conditions ...
Retail Food Group Seeks Quotation of Additional Ordinary Shares on ASX
Mar 26, 2026
Retail Food Group Limited has applied to the ASX for quotation of 7,311 new ordinary fully paid shares under its Appendix 2A process. The securities, issued on 26 March 2026, arise from the conversion or exercise of existing options or other conve...
Retail Food Group Seeks Quotation for New Share Issue on ASX
Mar 26, 2026
Retail Food Group has applied for quotation of 33,114 new ordinary fully paid shares on the ASX, with an issue date of March 26, 2026. The modest share issuance, arising from the exercise or conversion of existing securities, slightly expands the ...
Retail Food Group Updates Registered Office Address in Queensland
Mar 26, 2026
Retail Food Group has updated its registered office address to Level 4, 35 Robina Town Centre Drive in Robina, Queensland, effective immediately. The change is largely administrative in nature, signalling a formal relocation of its corporate base ...
Retail Food Group Reports Lapse of 47,503 Performance Rights
Mar 6, 2026
Retail Food Group Limited has notified the market that 47,503 performance rights, trading under the ASX code RFGAL, have lapsed after the conditions attached to those rights were not met or became incapable of being satisfied. The cessation of the...
Retail Food Group Seeks ASX Quotation for New Ordinary Shares
Mar 6, 2026
Retail Food Group Limited has applied for quotation on the ASX of 11,070 new ordinary fully paid shares, issued on 5 March 2026. The modest size of this issuance suggests a routine exercise or conversion of existing securities rather than a major ...
Retail Food Group Appoints New Director With No Initial Shareholding
Feb 26, 2026
Retail Food Group has appointed Abigail Cheadle as a director, with the company lodging an initial director’s interest notice with the ASX. The filing confirms that Cheadle currently holds no relevant interests in Retail Food Group securitie...
Retail Food Group Leans on Transformation Drive as Profits Slide
Feb 25, 2026
Retail Food Group reported first-half FY26 results showing resilient domestic network sales of $254.6 million and modest same-store sales growth, despite difficult trading conditions and ongoing closures of non-core and underperforming outlets. Th...
Retail Food Group Profit Slumps as Strategic Reset Weighs on First-Half Results
Feb 25, 2026
Retail Food Group Limited reported a weaker first half for the period ended 26 December 2025, with total revenues and other income falling 6.4% to A$69.0 million and underlying EBITDA dropping 43.1% to A$9.2 million, after restating prior-period f...
Retail Food Group adds new directors and extends executive chairman’s tenure
Feb 25, 2026
Retail Food Group has strengthened its board with the appointment of experienced Chartered Accountant Abigail Cheadle as an independent non-executive director and incoming chair of the Audit Risk Management Committee, alongside the addition of in...
Retail Food Group Reports Lapse of 18,315 Service Rights
Feb 11, 2026
Retail Food Group Limited has notified the market of the cessation of 18,315 service rights under its capital structure, as these conditional rights have lapsed. The lapse occurred because the conditions attached to the rights were not met or have...
Retail Food Group Performance Rights Lapse Simplifies Capital Structure
Feb 11, 2026
Retail Food Group has announced the cessation of 154,867 performance rights, which lapsed because the conditions attached to those rights were not met or could no longer be satisfied. The move trims the company’s pool of potential equity-lin...
Retail Food Group Secures New Debt Facility, Cuts Costs and Backs FY26 Earnings Rebound
Feb 2, 2026
Retail Food Group has refinanced its senior debt through a new 19‑month, $41.2 million facility with major shareholder Washington H. Soul Pattinson, adding $7.5 million of additional funding to underpin its “Enhance Grow” strate...
Retail Food Group Performance Rights Lapse After Conditions Not Met
Feb 2, 2026
Retail Food Group has notified the market that 99,573 performance rights (ASX code RFGAL) have lapsed after the conditions attached to those rights were not, or could no longer be, satisfied as at 2 February 2026. The cessation of these conditiona...
Retail Food Group Seeks ASX Quotation for 12,500 New Ordinary Shares
Feb 2, 2026
Retail Food Group Limited has applied for quotation on the ASX of 12,500 new fully paid ordinary shares under its code RFG, with an issue date of 2 February 2026. The relatively small share issuance, arising from the exercise or conversion of exis...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.