Retail Food Group (AU:RFG)
ASX:RFG
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Retail Food Group
(Sydney:RFG)
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Rating:48Neutral
Price Target:
AU$1.00
▼(-1.96% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/26/26
The score is held back mainly by weak technicals (downtrend across moving averages, negative MACD) and ongoing profitability/return challenges (negative margins and ROE). Offsetting factors include improving cash-flow trends, moderate leverage, and management’s reiterated FY26 EBITDA guidance with cost-out and refinancing actions, but near-term operating and trading softness keeps the overall rating below average.
Positive Factors
Strong Revenue Growth
A 77.1% top-line increase demonstrates meaningful expansion of the franchise network or same-store sales. Sustained high revenue growth supports scale benefits, strengthens bargaining with suppliers, and provides a foundation for long-term investment in systems and brand development.
Negative Factors
Negative Profitability Margins
Persistently negative EBIT and net margins show the business is not yet converting high revenues into operating profits. Structural margin shortfalls constrain reinvestment, franchisee returns, and the firm’s ability to fund growth without relying on external financing or further efficiency gains.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong Revenue Growth
A 77.1% top-line increase demonstrates meaningful expansion of the franchise network or same-store sales. Sustained high revenue growth supports scale benefits, strengthens bargaining with suppliers, and provides a foundation for long-term investment in systems and brand development.
Read all positive factors
Retail Food Group (RFG) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$64.42M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)49.49K
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.7
Beta (1Y)-0.24
Revenue Growth10.13%
EPS Growth-353.94%
CountryAU
Employees59
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.57
Shares Outstanding63,159,405
10 Day Avg. Volume29,385
30 Day Avg. Volume49,494
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.64
Price to Sales (P/S)0.91
P/FCF Ratio9.44
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$2.17Price Target Upside113.22% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.15
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$112.00M
Retail Food Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Retail Food Group Limited, a food and beverage company, engages in the management of a multi-brand retail food and beverage franchise in Australia and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Bakery/Café, QSR, Coffee Retail, an...
How the Company Makes Money
Retail Food Group generates revenue primarily through its franchising operations, where it charges franchisees initial fees and ongoing royalties based on their sales. The company also earns income from the manufacturing and supply of food product...
Retail Food Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 26, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Negative
The call presents a mixed but challenging near-term picture: material declines in H1 profitability (underlying EBITDA down 43%, statutory NPAT down materially) and weaker operating cash flow and early 2026 trading are significant negatives. Management has offsetting positives — a completed refinancing, progress on the company-store reset, operational cost-savings already realized, product and format wins (Glorange, Donut King, Crust), the operational Turkiye hub and a funded Firehouse Subs rollout — and has reiterated FY26 EBITDA guidance that implies H2 improvement. However, H1 financial deterioration and several operational underperformance areas (coffee margins, new Beefy's ramp-up and company-store losses) are sizeable and dominant in the short term.Positive Updates
Core Brands: Positive Underlying Trading Signals
Core brands network sales +0.8%, same-store sales +0.2% and core brand average weekly sales +0.9%, demonstrating improving network quality and underlying brand resilience despite a reduction in store numbers.
Negative Updates
Material Decline in Underlying EBITDA and Profitability
H1 underlying EBITDA declined 43% to $9.2M (within the previously signalled $9M–$10M H1 range). Statutory NPAT fell to $2.0M from $7.3M in the prior corresponding period, reflecting weaker margins, one-off cycling and lower lease impairment benefits.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Core Brands: Positive Underlying Trading Signals
Core brands network sales +0.8%, same-store sales +0.2% and core brand average weekly sales +0.9%, demonstrating improving network quality and underlying brand resilience despite a reduction in store numbers.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
RFG reiterated FY‑26 underlying EBITDA guidance of $20–24m (implying a meaningful H2 improvement versus H1) after H1 underlying EBITDA of $9.2m (‑43% YoY) and underlying revenue down 1% (domestic network sales $254.6m, down 1%); other key metrics cited were domestic outlets 693 (‑29), core brands network sales +0.8% with same‑store sales +0.2% and average weekly sales +0.9%, CCB same‑store ‑0.4% (network ‑2.4%, avg weekly +1.7%, avg transaction +4%), QSR network +2.8% (SSS +1.6%), Beefy’s network +19% (SSS +4.6%, network avg weekly $28k; seven newer stores avg $15k), company‑store cash outflows $2.1m in H1 with 70% of 50 targeted transitions complete, operating cash flow down $9.9m YoY, cash $16.7m (incl $11.3m restricted), drawn borrowings $32.5m and post‑period new $41.2m facility (with $7.5m additional availability); management expects gross‑margin improvement from a wholesale coffee price increase in March, H2 cost‑out of $1.2–1.8m (current run‑rate already achieved) and FY‑27 annualised savings of $5.7–7.0m to drive the H2 turnaround and cash‑flow recovery.Retail Food Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 136.16M | 137.87M | 125.18M | 111.37M | 102.58M | 109.10M |
| Gross Profit | 44.69M | 97.14M | 90.88M | 54.38M | 50.77M | 52.19M |
| EBITDA | -14.94M | -3.78M | 26.58M | 1.42M | 19.28M | 24.52M |
| Net Income | -20.27M | -14.92M | 5.79M | -8.95M | 5.26M | 1.46M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 352.38M | 360.58M | 368.74M | 348.89M | 350.08M | 369.76M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 16.75M | 26.00M | 20.64M | 22.26M | 29.22M | 34.65M |
| Total Debt | 174.14M | 125.94M | 113.62M | 110.64M | 128.42M | 153.38M |
| Total Liabilities | 155.46M | 165.60M | 160.73M | 149.18M | 166.30M | 191.91M |
| Stockholders Equity | 196.93M | 194.98M | 208.01M | 199.71M | 183.78M | 177.86M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.59M | 13.31M | 10.32M | -4.93M | 12.34M | 8.41M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 5.05M | 18.41M | 15.36M | -1.20M | 15.43M | 11.07M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -6.89M | -6.25M | -9.91M | -2.21M | -828.00K | 1.88M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.75M | -6.80M | -7.09M | -3.61M | -20.24M | -18.43M |
Retail Food Group Technical Analysis
Negative
1.02
Price Trends
1.18
Negative
1.35
Negative
1.51
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.04
Negative
39.84
Neutral
24.51
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:RFG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.02 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.06, below the 50-day MA of 1.18, and below the 200-day MA of 1.51, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 39.84 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.51 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:RFG.
Retail Food Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | AU$166.19M | 5.11 | 9.47% | 4.13% | 11.62% | ― | |
69 Neutral | AU$1.07B | 11.61 | 2.89% | 2.67% | 4.61% | -76.47% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
59 Neutral | AU$1.60B | 12.12 | 8.83% | 3.58% | -3.09% | -104.37% | |
50 Neutral | AU$1.69B | 52.00 | 4.82% | 0.56% | 27.40% | ― | |
48 Neutral | AU$64.42M | 11.71 | -10.34% | ― | 10.13% | -353.94% | |
46 Neutral | AU$4.33M | 1.09 | 5.84% | ― | -6.32% | -9.62% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
AU:RFG
Retail Food Group
1.02
-1.01
-49.75%
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Retail Food Group Corporate Events
Retail Food Group Appoints New Director With No Initial Shareholding
Feb 26, 2026
Retail Food Group has appointed Abigail Cheadle as a director, with the company lodging an initial director’s interest notice with the ASX. The filing confirms that Cheadle currently holds no relevant interests in Retail Food Group securitie...
Retail Food Group Leans on Transformation Drive as Profits Slide
Feb 25, 2026
Retail Food Group reported first-half FY26 results showing resilient domestic network sales of $254.6 million and modest same-store sales growth, despite difficult trading conditions and ongoing closures of non-core and underperforming outlets. Th...
Retail Food Group Profit Slumps as Strategic Reset Weighs on First-Half Results
Feb 25, 2026
Retail Food Group Limited reported a weaker first half for the period ended 26 December 2025, with total revenues and other income falling 6.4% to A$69.0 million and underlying EBITDA dropping 43.1% to A$9.2 million, after restating prior-period f...
Retail Food Group adds new directors and extends executive chairman’s tenure
Feb 25, 2026
Retail Food Group has strengthened its board with the appointment of experienced Chartered Accountant Abigail Cheadle as an independent non-executive director and incoming chair of the Audit Risk Management Committee, alongside the addition of in...
Retail Food Group Reports Lapse of 18,315 Service Rights
Feb 11, 2026
Retail Food Group Limited has notified the market of the cessation of 18,315 service rights under its capital structure, as these conditional rights have lapsed. The lapse occurred because the conditions attached to the rights were not met or have...
Retail Food Group Performance Rights Lapse Simplifies Capital Structure
Feb 11, 2026
Retail Food Group has announced the cessation of 154,867 performance rights, which lapsed because the conditions attached to those rights were not met or could no longer be satisfied. The move trims the company’s pool of potential equity-lin...
Retail Food Group Secures New Debt Facility, Cuts Costs and Backs FY26 Earnings Rebound
Feb 2, 2026
Retail Food Group has refinanced its senior debt through a new 19‑month, $41.2 million facility with major shareholder Washington H. Soul Pattinson, adding $7.5 million of additional funding to underpin its “Enhance Grow” strate...
Retail Food Group Performance Rights Lapse After Conditions Not Met
Feb 2, 2026
Retail Food Group has notified the market that 99,573 performance rights (ASX code RFGAL) have lapsed after the conditions attached to those rights were not, or could no longer be, satisfied as at 2 February 2026. The cessation of these conditiona...
Retail Food Group Seeks ASX Quotation for 12,500 New Ordinary Shares
Feb 2, 2026
Retail Food Group Limited has applied for quotation on the ASX of 12,500 new fully paid ordinary shares under its code RFG, with an issue date of 2 February 2026. The relatively small share issuance, arising from the exercise or conversion of exis...
Retail Food Group Director David Campbell Grant Steps Down
Jan 28, 2026
Retail Food Group Limited has announced that non-executive director David Campbell Grant has ceased to be a director of the company effective 28 January 2026. In a regulatory filing detailing his final director’s interest notice, the company...
Retail Food Group’s Longest-Serving Non-Executive Director David Grant Resigns
Jan 28, 2026
Retail Food Group has announced the immediate resignation of non-executive director David Grant, the company’s longest-serving independent board member and chair of its Audit Risk Management Committee, who joined alongside Executive Chairma...
Retail Food Group Appoints Mark Lindh to Board with No Initial Shareholding
Jan 6, 2026
Retail Food Group Limited has appointed Mark Lindh as a director, effective 7 January 2026, with the company disclosing that he currently holds no relevant interests in its securities or related contracts. The appointment signals a change in the b...
Retail Food Group Strengthens Board with Appointment of Mark Lindh as Non-Executive Director
Jan 6, 2026
Retail Food Group has appointed experienced corporate advisor and public company director Mark Lindh as a non-executive director, adding deep capital markets and governance expertise to its board. Lindh, who leads AE Advisors and chairs or sits on...
Retail Food Group Announces Lapse of 744,446 Performance Rights
Dec 18, 2025
Retail Food Group Limited has notified the market that 744,446 performance rights (ASX code: RFGAL) have lapsed after conditions attached to those rights were not satisfied or became incapable of being satisfied as at 18 December 2025. The cessati...
Retail Food Group Seeks ASX Quotation for Additional Ordinary Shares
Dec 18, 2025
Retail Food Group Limited has applied for the quotation of 14,621 new ordinary fully paid shares on the ASX, effective 18 December 2025. The small issuance, arising from the exercise or conversion of existing securities, modestly increases the com...
Retail Food Group Announces CFO Transition
Dec 17, 2025
Retail Food Group Limited has announced a change in its Chief Financial Officer position, with Rob Shore stepping down and Ryan Chellingworth being promoted to the role effective January 1, 2026. Rob Shore, who joined RFG in April 2023, has been i...
Retail Food Group Announces Quotation of New Securities
Dec 9, 2025
Retail Food Group Limited has announced the quotation of 150,000 ordinary fully paid securities on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) as of December 8, 2025. This move is part of the company’s strategic financial operations, potentiall...
Retail Food Group Announces Director Departure
Nov 27, 2025
Retail Food Group Limited announced the cessation of Kerry Anne Ryan as a director, effective November 27, 2025. The announcement included details about her interests in the company’s securities, specifically noting that the Klok-Ryan Family...
Retail Food Group AGM Results: Resolutions Carried, Stability Ensured
Nov 27, 2025
Retail Food Group Limited’s Annual General Meeting (AGM) on November 27, 2025, resulted in all proposed resolutions being carried, including the re-election of a director and the approval of the remuneration report. A contingent spill resolu...
Retail Food Group’s Resilient Performance and Strategic Growth Plans
Nov 26, 2025
Retail Food Group’s Executive Chairman addressed key developments from FY25 and provided a trading update for FY26. Despite challenging macroeconomic conditions, RFG’s core brands demonstrated resilience, with a focus on enhancing and ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.