Retail Food Group (RFG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$95.91M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 49.49K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): -0.47
• Revenue Growth: 10.13%
• EPS Growth: -353.94%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 59
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Restaurants
• EPS (TTM): 0.10
• Shares Outstanding: 63,095,410
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 29,385
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 49,494
• PEG Ratio: <0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.64
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.91
• P/FCF Ratio: 9.44
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.25
• Revenue Forecast (FY): AU$103.86M

• Rating: 51 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$1.50 ▼(-5.66% Downside)

Retail Food Group's stock score is primarily influenced by its mixed financial performance, with strong revenue growth but poor profitability. Technical analysis shows short-term bullish momentum, but valuation metrics are weak due to negative earnings. The absence of earnings call and corporate events data limits further insights.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

The company has experienced significant revenue growth, with a 77.1% increase in the latest period, indicating strong top-line expansion and market demand.

Cash Flow Improvement

Improved cash generation capabilities enhance financial flexibility, allowing for reinvestment in growth opportunities and debt reduction.

Strong Gross Profit Margin

Efficient cost management at the production level supports profitability, providing a buffer against operational challenges and pricing pressures.

Negative Factors

Profitability Challenges

Ongoing operational challenges impact profitability, limiting the company's ability to generate returns and invest in growth initiatives.

Negative Return on Equity

Inefficiencies in utilizing equity capital hinder shareholder value creation, potentially affecting investor confidence and future capital raising.

High Leverage

Moderate leverage can strain financial resources and limit strategic flexibility, especially if profitability challenges persist.

Retail Food Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Retail Food Group (RFG) is an Australian company that operates in the food and beverage sector, specializing in the franchising of retail food brands. With a diverse portfolio that includes well-known brands such as Donut King, Brumby's Bakeries, and Michel's Patisserie, RFG focuses on providing quality food products and a comprehensive support system for franchisees. The company is involved in the manufacturing and distribution of food products, as well as the development and management of its franchise network, catering primarily to the fast-food and retail bakery markets.

How the Company Makes Money

Retail Food Group generates revenue primarily through its franchising operations, where it charges franchisees initial fees and ongoing royalties based on their sales. The company also earns income from the manufacturing and supply of food products to its franchise network, ensuring consistent quality and supply. Additionally, RFG benefits from product sales through its retail outlets and any associated licensing agreements. Key partnerships with suppliers and distributors further enhance its revenue streams by optimizing cost efficiencies and expanding market reach. Factors contributing to its earnings include brand recognition, a loyal customer base, and the scalability of its franchise model.

Retail Food Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Retail Food Group shows strong revenue growth but struggles with profitability, as indicated by negative net profit and EBIT margins. The balance sheet reflects moderate leverage and a solid equity base, but the negative return on equity is a concern. Cash flow metrics are improving, with significant growth in free cash flow, suggesting enhanced cash generation.

Income Statement

Retail Food Group shows a mixed performance in its income statement. The company has experienced significant revenue growth, with a 77.1% increase in the latest period, indicating strong top-line expansion. However, profitability metrics are concerning, with a negative net profit margin of -10.82% and a negative EBIT margin of -10.15%, reflecting operational challenges. The gross profit margin remains healthy at 70.46%, suggesting efficient cost management at the production level. Overall, while revenue growth is promising, the company struggles with profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Retail Food Group presents a stable financial structure with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.65, indicating moderate leverage. However, the return on equity is negative at -7.65%, highlighting challenges in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio stands at 54.08%, suggesting a solid equity base relative to total assets. While the company maintains a reasonable debt level, the negative ROE points to inefficiencies in utilizing equity capital.

Cash Flow

Retail Food Group's cash flow statement reveals positive trends, with a substantial free cash flow growth rate of 199.2%, indicating improved cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.22, suggesting that operating activities are contributing positively to cash flow. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.72, reflecting a decent conversion of earnings into free cash flow. Despite past challenges, the company shows potential in enhancing its cash flow position.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	137.87M	137.87M	125.18M	111.37M	102.58M	109.10M
Gross Profit	71.02M	97.14M	90.88M	54.38M	50.77M	52.19M
EBITDA	-7.69M	-3.78M	26.58M	1.42M	19.28M	24.52M
Net Income	-14.92M	-14.92M	5.79M	-8.95M	5.26M	1.46M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	360.58M	360.58M	368.74M	348.89M	350.08M	369.76M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	26.00M	26.00M	20.64M	22.26M	29.22M	34.65M
Total Debt	125.94M	125.94M	113.62M	110.64M	128.42M	153.38M
Total Liabilities	165.60M	165.60M	160.73M	149.18M	166.30M	191.91M
Stockholders Equity	194.98M	194.98M	208.01M	199.71M	183.78M	177.86M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	11.71M	13.31M	10.32M	-4.93M	12.34M	8.41M
Operating Cash Flow	16.81M	18.41M	15.36M	-1.20M	15.43M	11.07M
Investing Cash Flow	-6.99M	-6.25M	-9.91M	-2.21M	-828.00K	1.88M
Financing Cash Flow	-3.01M	-6.80M	-7.09M	-3.61M	-20.24M	-18.43M

Retail Food Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 1.59
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:RFG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.59 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.51, above the 50-day MA of 1.50, and below the 200-day MA of 1.68, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.66 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.60 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:RFG.

Retail Food Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MTO	69 Neutral	AU$228.98M	12.69	8.86%	4.13%	11.62%	―
CKF	69 Neutral	AU$1.28B	107.84	2.90%	2.67%	4.61%	-76.47%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
DMP	59 Neutral	AU$2.13B	-484.95	-0.70%	3.58%	-3.09%	-104.37%
RFG	51 Neutral	AU$95.91M	-6.37	-6.95%	―	10.13%	-353.94%
GYG	51 Neutral	AU$2.13B	145.65	3.94%	0.56%	27.40%	―
OLI	41 Neutral	€4.87M	-1.75	―	―	-6.32%	-9.62%

Retail Food Group Corporate Events

Retail Food Group Announces Lapse of 744,446 Performance Rights

Retail Food Group Limited has notified the market that 744,446 performance rights (ASX code: RFGAL) have lapsed after conditions attached to those rights were not satisfied or became incapable of being satisfied as at 18 December 2025. The cessation of these securities reduces the company’s potential future share dilution from incentive arrangements, signalling that certain performance hurdles were not met and potentially reflecting on the company’s recent operational or financial performance metrics tied to those rights.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:RFG) stock is a Hold with a A$1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Retail Food Group stock, see the AU:RFG Stock Forecast page.

Retail Food Group Seeks ASX Quotation for Additional Ordinary Shares

Retail Food Group Limited has applied for the quotation of 14,621 new ordinary fully paid shares on the ASX, effective 18 December 2025. The small issuance, arising from the exercise or conversion of existing securities, modestly increases the company’s quoted capital base and reflects ongoing equity-related activity rather than a major strategic or operational shift for shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:RFG) stock is a Hold with a A$1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Retail Food Group stock, see the AU:RFG Stock Forecast page.

Retail Food Group Announces CFO Transition

Retail Food Group Limited has announced a change in its Chief Financial Officer position, with Rob Shore stepping down and Ryan Chellingworth being promoted to the role effective January 1, 2026. Rob Shore, who joined RFG in April 2023, has been instrumental in driving significant improvements in financial systems and strategic initiatives, including key acquisitions and partnerships. His leadership has also been pivotal in restructuring the company’s international supply chain. The transition to Ryan Chellingworth, who has extensive experience in finance and has been with RFG since August 2023, is expected to continue the company’s strategic growth and operational efficiency.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:RFG) stock is a Hold with a A$1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Retail Food Group stock, see the AU:RFG Stock Forecast page.

Retail Food Group Announces Quotation of New Securities

Retail Food Group Limited has announced the quotation of 150,000 ordinary fully paid securities on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) as of December 8, 2025. This move is part of the company’s strategic financial operations, potentially impacting its market position and offering new opportunities for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:RFG) stock is a Hold with a A$1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Retail Food Group stock, see the AU:RFG Stock Forecast page.

Retail Food Group Announces Director Departure

Retail Food Group Limited announced the cessation of Kerry Anne Ryan as a director, effective November 27, 2025. The announcement included details about her interests in the company’s securities, specifically noting that the Klok-Ryan Family Superannuation Fund holds 34,427 ordinary shares for the benefit of Ms. Ryan and her family. This change in directorship may impact the company’s governance structure and could have implications for stakeholders monitoring leadership dynamics within the organization.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:RFG) stock is a Hold with a A$1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Retail Food Group stock, see the AU:RFG Stock Forecast page.

Retail Food Group AGM Results: Resolutions Carried, Stability Ensured

Retail Food Group Limited’s Annual General Meeting (AGM) on November 27, 2025, resulted in all proposed resolutions being carried, including the re-election of a director and the approval of the remuneration report. A contingent spill resolution was not required as less than 25% of votes were against the remuneration report. These outcomes reflect stability in the company’s governance and could reassure stakeholders about RFG’s strategic direction and operational management.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:RFG) stock is a Hold with a A$1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Retail Food Group stock, see the AU:RFG Stock Forecast page.

Retail Food Group’s Resilient Performance and Strategic Growth Plans

Retail Food Group’s Executive Chairman addressed key developments from FY25 and provided a trading update for FY26. Despite challenging macroeconomic conditions, RFG’s core brands demonstrated resilience, with a focus on enhancing and growing these brands while supporting franchisees. The company is investing in technology and supply chain optimization to expand its networks and generate shareholder value. RFG’s growth is supported by brand innovation and new pathways with Beefy’s and Firehouse Subs.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:RFG) stock is a Hold with a A$1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Retail Food Group stock, see the AU:RFG Stock Forecast page.

Retail Food Group Announces Director Retirement and AGM Details

Retail Food Group Limited announced the retirement of Independent Non-Executive Director Kerry Ryan, who will not seek re-election at the upcoming Annual General Meeting. Kerry Ryan has significantly contributed to the company over her decade-long tenure, particularly in times of substantial change. The company also announced the date for its 2025 Annual General Meeting and the deadline for director nominations, indicating ongoing governance and leadership transitions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:RFG) stock is a Hold with a A$1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Retail Food Group stock, see the AU:RFG Stock Forecast page.