Retail Food Group (AU:RFG)
ASX:RFG
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Retail Food Group
(Sydney:RFG)
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Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
AU$0.79
▼(-18.23% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/18/26
Overall score reflects mixed fundamentals: improving cash generation and strong reported revenue growth are offset by persistently weak profitability and negative returns. Technicals are also soft with negative momentum and the stock trading below key longer-term moving averages. Earnings call was balanced—guidance and refinancing help, but H1 deterioration and near-term trading/margin pressures temper confidence.
Positive Factors
Franchise model and core brand resilience
A diversified franchisor model with resilient core-brand same-store sales provides durable, recurring royalty and marketing-income streams. Stable underlying network trading supports predictable cashflows and lowers capital intensity versus company-owned expansion, underpinning medium-term revenue stability.
Negative Factors
Negative profitability and returns
Despite healthy gross margins, persistent negative operating and net margins plus a negative ROE show the group struggles to convert revenue into shareholder returns. Unless structural cost or revenue improvements stick, negative profitability will impair reinvestment and long-term value creation.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Franchise model and core brand resilience
A diversified franchisor model with resilient core-brand same-store sales provides durable, recurring royalty and marketing-income streams. Stable underlying network trading supports predictable cashflows and lowers capital intensity versus company-owned expansion, underpinning medium-term revenue stability.
Read all positive factors
Retail Food Group (RFG) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$53.41M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)49.49K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)-0.10
Revenue Growth-0.47%
EPS Growth-326.66%
CountryAU
Employees59
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.33
Shares Outstanding63,209,404
10 Day Avg. Volume29,385
30 Day Avg. Volume49,494
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.64
Price to Sales (P/S)0.91
P/FCF Ratio9.44
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$1.51Price Target Upside57.64% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)0.12
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$103.82M
Retail Food Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Retail Food Group Limited (RFG) is an Australian-based food and beverage enterprise that oversees a diverse portfolio of franchised retail brands both domestically and across the globe. Its operations are structured across four key divisions: Bake...
How the Company Makes Money
RFG primarily makes money through franchising-related income generated from its network of franchised outlets. Key revenue streams typically include: (1) Franchise fees: upfront fees paid by franchisees when entering the system or when new stores ...
Retail Food Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 26, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Negative
The call presents a mixed but challenging near-term picture: material declines in H1 profitability (underlying EBITDA down 43%, statutory NPAT down materially) and weaker operating cash flow and early 2026 trading are significant negatives. Management has offsetting positives — a completed refinancing, progress on the company-store reset, operational cost-savings already realized, product and format wins (Glorange, Donut King, Crust), the operational Turkiye hub and a funded Firehouse Subs rollout — and has reiterated FY26 EBITDA guidance that implies H2 improvement. However, H1 financial deterioration and several operational underperformance areas (coffee margins, new Beefy's ramp-up and company-store losses) are sizeable and dominant in the short term.Positive Updates
Core Brands: Positive Underlying Trading Signals
Core brands network sales +0.8%, same-store sales +0.2% and core brand average weekly sales +0.9%, demonstrating improving network quality and underlying brand resilience despite a reduction in store numbers.
Negative Updates
Material Decline in Underlying EBITDA and Profitability
H1 underlying EBITDA declined 43% to $9.2M (within the previously signalled $9M–$10M H1 range). Statutory NPAT fell to $2.0M from $7.3M in the prior corresponding period, reflecting weaker margins, one-off cycling and lower lease impairment benefits.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Core Brands: Positive Underlying Trading Signals
Core brands network sales +0.8%, same-store sales +0.2% and core brand average weekly sales +0.9%, demonstrating improving network quality and underlying brand resilience despite a reduction in store numbers.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
RFG reiterated FY‑26 underlying EBITDA guidance of $20–24m (implying a meaningful H2 improvement versus H1) after H1 underlying EBITDA of $9.2m (‑43% YoY) and underlying revenue down 1% (domestic network sales $254.6m, down 1%); other key metrics cited were domestic outlets 693 (‑29), core brands network sales +0.8% with same‑store sales +0.2% and average weekly sales +0.9%, CCB same‑store ‑0.4% (network ‑2.4%, avg weekly +1.7%, avg transaction +4%), QSR network +2.8% (SSS +1.6%), Beefy’s network +19% (SSS +4.6%, network avg weekly $28k; seven newer stores avg $15k), company‑store cash outflows $2.1m in H1 with 70% of 50 targeted transitions complete, operating cash flow down $9.9m YoY, cash $16.7m (incl $11.3m restricted), drawn borrowings $32.5m and post‑period new $41.2m facility (with $7.5m additional availability); management expects gross‑margin improvement from a wholesale coffee price increase in March, H2 cost‑out of $1.2–1.8m (current run‑rate already achieved) and FY‑27 annualised savings of $5.7–7.0m to drive the H2 turnaround and cash‑flow recovery.Retail Food Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 136.16M | 137.87M | 125.18M | 111.37M | 102.58M | 109.10M |
| Gross Profit | 44.69M | 97.14M | 90.88M | 54.38M | 50.77M | 52.19M |
| EBITDA | -14.94M | -3.78M | 26.58M | 1.42M | 19.28M | 24.52M |
| Net Income | -20.27M | -14.92M | 5.79M | -8.95M | 5.26M | 1.46M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 352.38M | 360.58M | 368.74M | 348.89M | 350.08M | 369.76M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 16.75M | 26.00M | 20.64M | 22.26M | 29.22M | 34.65M |
| Total Debt | 174.14M | 125.94M | 113.62M | 110.64M | 128.42M | 153.38M |
| Total Liabilities | 155.46M | 165.60M | 160.73M | 149.18M | 166.30M | 191.91M |
| Stockholders Equity | 196.93M | 194.98M | 208.01M | 199.71M | 183.78M | 177.86M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.59M | 13.31M | 10.32M | -4.93M | 12.34M | 8.41M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 5.05M | 18.41M | 15.36M | -1.20M | 15.43M | 11.07M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -6.89M | -6.25M | -9.91M | -2.21M | -828.00K | 1.88M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.75M | -6.80M | -7.09M | -3.61M | -20.24M | -18.43M |
Retail Food Group Technical Analysis
Neutral
0.96
Price Trends
0.76
Positive
0.93
Negative
1.19
Negative
Market Momentum
<0.01
Negative
70.55
Negative
99.40
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:RFG, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 0.96 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.66, above the 50-day MA of 0.76, and below the 200-day MA of 1.19, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 70.55 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 99.40 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AU:RFG.
Retail Food Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | AU$1.01B | 84.34 | 2.28% | 2.67% | 4.61% | -76.47% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
59 Neutral | AU$1.58B | 26.43 | 8.83% | 3.58% | -1.35% | 258.94% | |
57 Neutral | AU$1.89B | 109.18 | 4.82% | 0.56% | 25.22% | ― | |
56 Neutral | AU$174.30M | 16.11 | 48.57% | 5.00% | 4.81% | 6.37% | |
50 Neutral | AU$53.41M | -2.64 | -10.34% | ― | -0.47% | -326.66% | |
46 Neutral | AU$3.24M | -2.98 | 5.84% | ― | -8.96% | 69.23% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
AU:RFG
Retail Food Group
0.85
-1.07
-55.76%
AU:CKF
Collins Foods
8.54
1.49
21.08%
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Domino's Pizza Enterprises Limited
16.69
-1.99
-10.66%
AU:RCT
Reef Casino
3.50
0.59
20.11%
AU:OLI
Oliver's Real Food Ltd.
0.01
0.00
0.00%
AU:GYG
Guzman y Gomez Ltd.
18.87
-9.59
-33.69%
Retail Food Group Corporate Events
Retail Food Group flags earnings inflection as transformation offsets weak sales
Jun 1, 2026
Retail Food Group has accelerated its transformation program, with cost-rationalisation savings for FY26 now forecast at $2.3 million to $2.5 million and FY27 savings unchanged at $5 million to $7 million, while operational and structural changes ...
Retail Food Group Lists Additional 50,000 Shares on ASX
Apr 17, 2026
Retail Food Group Limited has applied for quotation on the ASX of 50,000 new ordinary fully paid shares, which were issued on 16 April 2026. The move modestly increases the company’s quoted capital base and reflects the conversion or exercis...
Retail Food Group Performance Rights Lapse Alters Capital Structure
Mar 26, 2026
Retail Food Group Limited has reported a change to its issued capital following the lapse of certain performance rights. The company notified the ASX that 35,470 performance rights, trading under the code RFGAL, have ceased because the conditions ...
Retail Food Group Seeks Quotation of Additional Ordinary Shares on ASX
Mar 26, 2026
Retail Food Group Limited has applied to the ASX for quotation of 7,311 new ordinary fully paid shares under its Appendix 2A process. The securities, issued on 26 March 2026, arise from the conversion or exercise of existing options or other conve...
Retail Food Group Seeks Quotation for New Share Issue on ASX
Mar 26, 2026
Retail Food Group has applied for quotation of 33,114 new ordinary fully paid shares on the ASX, with an issue date of March 26, 2026. The modest share issuance, arising from the exercise or conversion of existing securities, slightly expands the ...
Retail Food Group Updates Registered Office Address in Queensland
Mar 26, 2026
Retail Food Group has updated its registered office address to Level 4, 35 Robina Town Centre Drive in Robina, Queensland, effective immediately. The change is largely administrative in nature, signalling a formal relocation of its corporate base ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.