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Collins Foods
(Sydney:CKF)
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Rating:57Neutral
Price Target:
AU$8.00
▼(-25.51% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/07/26
The score is held back primarily by mixed financial quality (earnings volatility, leverage, and softer recent free-cash-flow momentum) and weak technicals (below key moving averages with negative MACD). These are partially offset by a constructive earnings call emphasizing record FY26 performance, improved balance sheet metrics, and disciplined growth investment, plus a moderate dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Sustained Revenue and Underlying Profit Growth
Persistent top-line growth and record underlying NPAT demonstrate durable demand for core KFC operations and effective pricing/mix execution. Over 2–6 months this supports reinvestment in stores, funds for rollouts and resilience to moderate economic cycles, underpinning long-term earnings capacity.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage and Uneven ROE
High leverage relative to equity constrains the company's ability to absorb shocks or accelerate rollouts without increasing financing risk. For a consumer cyclical business, elevated debt makes earnings volatility and margin pressure more damaging to long‑term returns and capital allocation choices.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Sustained Revenue and Underlying Profit Growth
Persistent top-line growth and record underlying NPAT demonstrate durable demand for core KFC operations and effective pricing/mix execution. Over 2–6 months this supports reinvestment in stores, funds for rollouts and resilience to moderate economic cycles, underpinning long-term earnings capacity.
Read all positive factors
Collins Foods (CKF) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$942.72M
Dividend Yield2.67%
Average Volume (3M)536.05K
Price to Earnings (P/E)21.5
Beta (1Y)0.59
Revenue Growth4.81%
EPS Growth397.47%
CountryAU
Employees15,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.37
Shares Outstanding118,197,080
10 Day Avg. Volume560,459
30 Day Avg. Volume536,047
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.06
Price to Book (P/B)2.30
Price to Sales (P/S)0.61
P/FCF Ratio10.03
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$10.03Price Target Upside-6.64% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering11
EPS Forecast (FY)0.56
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$1.69B
Collins Foods Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Collins Foods Limited operates and manages restaurants across Australia, Europe, and Asia, featuring a diverse portfolio of well-known brands such as KFC, Taco Bell, and Sizzler. As of December 31, 2021, the company oversaw 261 franchised KFC esta...
How the Company Makes Money
Collins Foods makes money primarily by operating quick-service restaurants and retaining the restaurant-level sales revenue generated from customer purchases (food, beverages, and add-ons) across its store network. Its key revenue stream is system...
Collins Foods Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jun 29, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Dec 08, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call reported a strong set of FY26 financial results with record revenue, record underlying NPAT, improved cash generation, reduced net debt and clear strategic progress (KFC Australia momentum, German expansion, Kwench rollout, Taco Bell exit, sustainability achievements). However, management acknowledged notable near-term challenges: margin compression from delivery fee changes and higher protein costs, impaired European trading trends into early FY27 driven by macro events (conflict, fuel, heatwaves), avian flu-driven poultry cost pressure, and one-off charges. Overall the positives (record financials, balance sheet improvement, operational wins and clear growth initiatives) outweigh the negatives, which management characterizes as manageable and addressable in FY27 through product, cost actions and strategic investment.Positive Updates
Record Revenue
Revenue from continuing operations of $1.59 billion, up 8.6% year-on-year (FY26); group revenue including discontinued Taco Bell was $1.64 billion (Taco Bell contributed $47.7m).
Negative Updates
Margin Compression and Cost Headwinds
Underlying EBITDA margin slipped (absolute profits up but margin down ~34 basis points) due to delivery fee structure changes, value investments, and higher protein costs in Europe; Australian restaurant-level EBITDA margin reduced 26 basis points to 21%.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Revenue
Revenue from continuing operations of $1.59 billion, up 8.6% year-on-year (FY26); group revenue including discontinued Taco Bell was $1.64 billion (Taco Bell contributed $47.7m).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Guidance from the call was that Collins will continue investment-led growth while maintaining a conservative financial profile: FY27 plans include 7–10 new restaurants in Australia and ~7 in Germany, an A$35m (reported $35m) rollout of Kwench targeting 80% of Australian sites by April, ~ $20m FY27 capex in Germany plus a $3m upfront acceleration spend, and a mid‑term ambition to add 45–90 German restaurants by FY30; incremental G&A of $2m in Australia and $3m in Germany was flagged. Financial priorities are strict capital discipline with R&D/entry‑ticket and supplier entry metrics targeted below 8%, a high‑ROCE hurdle for investments, preservation of an investment‑grade balance sheet, and a progressive absolute dividend policy (FY26 fully franked dividend $0.28/share, final $0.15/share), alongside an expected EUR350m dividend from Mobilize Financial Services. Cash/earnings guidance points to continued strong cash generation (FY26 cash conversion 94%, net operating cash flow before interest and tax $232.6m and after interest/tax $150.1m), lower net debt (FY26 net debt $119.6m, net leverage 0.77 vs 0.93 FY25) and free cash flow “above historical averages”; management flagged a circa 5.5% margin guidance corridor (for 2026), modest commodity inflation in Australia, easing poultry pressure in Europe, and FX/headwinds to be managed.Collins Foods Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
68
Positive
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
56
Neutral
| Breakdown | Apr 2026 | Apr 2025 | Apr 2024 | Apr 2023 | Apr 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.59B | 1.52B | 1.49B | 1.35B | 1.18B |
| Gross Profit | 815.59M | 776.42M | 750.95M | 676.27M | 619.34M |
| EBITDA | 249.13M | 186.24M | 227.85M | 146.26M | 203.99M |
| Net Income | 44.15M | 8.83M | 76.72M | 12.75M | 54.80M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.63B | 2.29B | 1.42B | 1.54B | 1.28B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 93.91M | 184.28M | 83.82M | 80.24M | 97.22M |
| Total Debt | 842.79M | 1.38B | 834.54M | 843.37M | 748.38M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.21B | 1.67B | 991.78M | 1.16B | 889.44M |
| Stockholders Equity | 421.74M | 627.04M | 426.44M | 384.50M | 393.53M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 96.62M | 178.97M | 93.64M | 70.59M | 83.12M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 148.53M | 280.69M | 176.39M | 146.22M | 156.33M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -56.21M | -105.06M | -53.55M | -93.54M | -97.31M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -118.41M | -120.63M | -118.90M | -65.94M | -61.95M |
Collins Foods Technical Analysis
Negative
10.74
Price Trends
8.29
Negative
8.75
Negative
9.71
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.12
Positive
40.10
Neutral
15.83
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:CKF, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 10.74 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.28, above the 50-day MA of 8.29, and above the 200-day MA of 9.71, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.12 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.10 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.83 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:CKF.
Collins Foods Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
59 Neutral | AU$1.54B | 25.79 | 8.83% | 3.58% | -1.35% | 258.94% | |
57 Neutral | AU$942.72M | 21.54 | 2.28% | 2.67% | 4.81% | 397.47% | |
57 Neutral | AU$2.13B | 124.62 | 4.82% | 0.56% | 25.22% | ― | |
50 Neutral | AU$49.97M | -2.39 | -10.34% | ― | -0.47% | -326.66% | |
46 Neutral | AU$3.24M | -2.86 | 5.84% | ― | -8.96% | 69.23% | |
41 Neutral | AU$656.89M | -1.10 | -57.00% | ― | -26.19% | 89.24% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
AU:CKF
Collins Foods
7.97
-0.88
-9.93%
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-1.22
-60.70%
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Oliver's Real Food Ltd.
0.01
0.00
0.00%
AU:GYG
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21.20
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Collins Foods Corporate Events
Collins Foods Director Nigel Clark Increases Shareholding via On-Market Trade
Jul 7, 2026
Collins Foods has disclosed a change in the shareholding of director Nigel Clark, in line with ASX requirements for director interest notices. Clark’s holding in ordinary fully paid shares increased through an on-market trade, signalling ong...
Collins Foods Director Increases Shareholding Through On-Market Purchase
Jul 3, 2026
Collins Foods has reported a change in the equity holdings of director Mark John Hawthorne, reflecting an on-market purchase of additional ordinary fully paid shares. The transaction, completed on 1 July 2026 for approximately $120,444, increased ...
Collins Foods Declares Interim Dividend of AUD 0.15 Per Share
Jun 29, 2026
Collins Foods Limited has declared an ordinary dividend of AUD 0.15 per fully paid ordinary share, relating to a six-month period ending 3 May 2026. The distribution will be paid on 11 August 2026, with an ex-dividend date of 13 July 2026 and a re...
Collins Foods Releases 2026 Sustainability Report to Market
Jun 29, 2026
Collins Foods Limited has released its Sustainability Report 2026, outlining the company’s latest disclosures on environmental, social and governance performance to the market. The report’s publication underscores the board’s ong...
Collins Foods Delivers Record Revenue and Profit in FY26
Jun 29, 2026
Collins Foods has reported a record financial year for FY26, delivering revenue of $1,592.6 million from continuing operations, up 8.6% from FY25. Record underlying net profit after tax from continuing operations reached $61.4 million, a 13.0% inc...
Collins Foods’ Profit Surges as Revenue Climbs and Dividend Held Steady
Jun 29, 2026
Collins Foods reported an 8.6% rise in revenue to $1.59 billion for the 53 weeks to 3 May 2026, with net profit attributable to members surging nearly fourfold to $44.2 million, despite a smaller loss from discontinued operations. The company decl...
Collins Foods Deepens German Push With Bavarian KFC Acquisition
Jun 1, 2026
Collins Foods has completed the acquisition of eight KFC restaurants in Bavaria, Germany, from JJ Restaurant GmbH Co. KG, boosting its German footprint by about 50%. Centered around Munich, the new portfolio expands the group’s presence acr...
State Street Group Ceases to Be Substantial Holder in Collins Foods
May 22, 2026
State Street Corporation and several of its asset management subsidiaries have notified Collins Foods Limited that they have ceased to be substantial shareholders as of 20 May 2026. The filing indicates a reduction in their relevant voting interes...
Collins Foods Advances Exit from 20 Taco Bell Stores as Partnership Deal Progresses
Apr 30, 2026
Collins Foods has confirmed that the key condition for transitioning 20 Taco Bell restaurants to a new partnership between a Taco Bell-affiliated entity and Restaurant Brands Australia has been met, clearing a major hurdle in its planned exit from...
Collins Foods Issues New Unquoted Rights Under Employee Share Plan
Apr 30, 2026
Collins Foods Limited has issued 1,096 unquoted securities under its Ownership Share Plan Rights, as part of an employee incentive scheme. The new rights, which are not intended to be quoted on the ASX, reinforce the company’s strategy of us...
Collins Foods Reports Lapse of Performance and Ownership Share Rights
Apr 30, 2026
Collins Foods Limited has reported the lapse of 51,139 performance rights and 8,988 ownership share plan rights, following the failure or incapacity of the conditions attached to these equity incentives to be satisfied. The cessation of these cond...
State Street Group Ceases to Be Substantial Holder in Collins Foods
Apr 27, 2026
Collins Foods Limited has disclosed that State Street Corporation, through several subsidiaries including SSGA Funds Management and State Street Global Advisors entities in the U.K., U.S., Ireland, and Australia, has ceased to be a substantial hol...
State Street Group Ceases to Be Substantial Holder in Collins Foods
Apr 23, 2026
State Street Corporation, through various asset management and banking subsidiaries, has filed notice that it has ceased to be a substantial shareholder in Collins Foods Limited as of 21 April 2026. The change reflects a reduction in its relevant ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.