Collins Foods (CKF) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$1.19B
• Dividend Yield: 2.67%
• Average Volume (3M): 536.05K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 99.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.41
• Revenue Growth: 4.61%
• EPS Growth: -76.47%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 15,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Restaurants
• EPS (TTM): 0.26
• Shares Outstanding: 118,135,925
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 560,459
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 536,047
• PEG Ratio: 0.05
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.77
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.79
• P/FCF Ratio: 12.60
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: AU$12.12
• Price Target Upside: 12.87% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.52
• Revenue Forecast (FY): AU$1.60B

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$11.00 ▲(2.42% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 12/02/25
• Date: Action: Reiterated 12/02/25

Collins Foods' strong earnings performance and positive technical indicators are offset by high valuation concerns and operational challenges. The company's ability to manage debt and improve operational efficiency will be crucial for future performance.

Positive Factors

Consistent revenue growth

Sustained top-line growth (H1 revenue +6.6%) indicates expanding customer demand and successful execution across channels. Durable revenue expansion supports reinvestment in stores, digital capabilities and product innovation, underpinning medium-term earnings resilience and scale benefits.

Strong operating cash flow and FCF

Consistent operating cash generation and positive free cash flow provide structural financial flexibility: funds capital expenditure, dividends and debt reduction without relying on external financing. This strengthens the company's ability to invest in network growth and cushion cost shocks over months.

Scale and operational improvement in KFC Australia

Positive same-store sales and material margin expansion at the core KFC Australia business reflect effective operations, menu and digital initiatives. Scale advantages and demonstrated margin recovery provide a durable earnings engine and a platform for future unit roll-outs and efficiency gains.

Negative Factors

Rising leverage

Elevated and rising leverage reduces financial flexibility and increases vulnerability to cost shocks or slower sales. Higher debt servicing can constrain investment in openings and remodels and limits room to absorb commodity or labor inflation, creating a lasting strategic constraint.

Margin pressure from commodity and labor inflation

Structural commodity volatility (poultry) and ongoing labor inflation compress unit economics across restaurants. These input-cost pressures are persistent risks to margins and may require sustained price or efficiency responses, limiting durable margin recovery particularly in European markets.

Compliance and diversification execution risk

A wage underpayment provision signals compliance and process weaknesses that can lead to remediation costs, reputational strain and heightened oversight. Coupled with Taco Bell Australia revenue decline and ownership transition uncertainty, this weakens diversification and raises structural execution risk.

Collins Foods Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Collins Foods Limited (CKF) is a prominent Australian company specializing in the quick-service restaurant sector. The company operates primarily as a franchisee of KFC in Australia and has expanded its portfolio to include other restaurant brands. CKF focuses on delivering quality food and exceptional customer service while maintaining operational efficiency across its restaurant operations. Its core offerings include fried chicken, burgers, and other fast-food items, catering to a diverse customer base across various locations.

How the Company Makes Money

Collins Foods generates revenue primarily through its franchise operations, particularly its KFC restaurants, which constitute a significant portion of its business model. The company earns money by operating these outlets, where it sells food and beverages directly to consumers. Additional revenue streams include franchise fees and royalties from its KFC franchise operations. The company benefits from significant partnerships with suppliers for inventory, ensuring a steady flow of quality ingredients at competitive prices. Furthermore, CKF leverages marketing initiatives and promotions to drive sales, and its focus on customer experience helps in maintaining a loyal customer base, contributing to its overall earnings.

Collins Foods Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Collins Foods shows strong revenue growth and cash flow management, but faces challenges with profitability and rising debt levels. Operational efficiency and leverage management are key areas for improvement.

Income Statement

Collins Foods has shown a strong revenue growth trend over the past few years, but recent profitability metrics such as EBIT and net profit margins have weakened, likely impacting overall profitability. The gross profit margin remains strong, indicating efficient cost management, yet the declining EBIT margin suggests challenges in operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company has maintained a stable equity base, but the rising debt levels have increased the debt-to-equity ratio, posing potential financial risks. The equity ratio is fair, but the high leverage could impact financial stability if not managed carefully.

Cash Flow

Collins Foods has demonstrated strong operating cash flow, which is a positive indicator of cash-generating ability relative to net income. Free cash flow growth has been positive, supporting potential for reinvestment and shareholder returns, despite some fluctuations in capital expenditures.

Breakdown	TTM	Apr 2024	Apr 2023	Apr 2022	Apr 2021	Apr 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.57B	1.52B	1.49B	1.35B	1.18B	1.07B
Gross Profit	806.87M	776.42M	750.95M	676.27M	619.34M	559.91M
EBITDA	132.90M	186.24M	227.85M	146.26M	203.99M	174.32M
Net Income	11.90M	8.83M	76.72M	12.75M	54.80M	32.95M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.47B	1.48B	1.42B	1.54B	1.41B	1.27B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	101.61M	119.12M	83.82M	80.24M	97.22M	95.72M
Total Debt	1.47B	890.83M	834.54M	843.37M	748.38M	669.30M
Total Liabilities	1.05B	1.08B	991.78M	1.16B	889.44M	790.87M
Stockholders Equity	417.18M	405.32M	426.44M	384.50M	393.53M	362.60M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	119.15M	115.69M	93.64M	70.59M	83.12M	81.35M
Operating Cash Flow	173.81M	181.44M	176.39M	146.22M	156.33M	128.25M
Investing Cash Flow	-59.91M	-67.91M	-53.55M	-93.54M	-97.31M	-50.92M
Financing Cash Flow	-100.69M	-77.97M	-118.90M	-65.94M	-61.95M	-93.03M

Collins Foods Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 10.74
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:CKF, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 10.74 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.29, above the 50-day MA of 10.53, and above the 200-day MA of 9.81, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.18 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.34 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.43 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AU:CKF.

Collins Foods Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CKF	69 Neutral	AU$1.19B	99.70	2.90%	2.67%	4.61%	-76.47%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
DMP	56 Neutral	AU$1.92B	32.35	-0.70%	3.58%	-3.09%	-104.37%
AMA	56 Neutral	AU$324.93M	-79.41	-4.58%	―	13.54%	66.33%
GYG	50 Neutral	AU$2.00B	110.48	3.94%	0.56%	27.40%	―
RFG	48 Neutral	$68.47M	-3.34	-6.95%	―	10.13%	-353.94%
OLI	41 Neutral	AU$4.33M	-5.00	―	―	-6.32%	-9.62%

Collins Foods Corporate Events

Collins Foods Director Nicki Anderson Increases Indirect Shareholding via DRP

Collins Foods Limited has disclosed a minor change in the indirect shareholding of non-executive director Nicki Anderson, reflecting routine participation in the company’s dividend reinvestment plan. Through the Meyer-Anderson Superannuation Fund, Anderson acquired 102 ordinary fully paid shares at $10.42 each on 5 January 2026, increasing her indirect holding from 8,192 to 8,294 shares, with the trade occurring outside a closed period and requiring no special clearance, indicating an incremental reinforcement of director alignment with shareholder interests rather than a strategic shift in ownership.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CKF) stock is a Buy with a A$12.30 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Collins Foods stock, see the AU:CKF Stock Forecast page.

Collins Foods Director Increases Indirect Shareholding via Dividend Reinvestment

Collins Foods Limited has disclosed a minor change in the shareholding of non-executive director Christine Francis Holman, who increased her indirect interest in the company through the Holman Superfund via the dividend reinvestment plan. Following the issue of 341 ordinary fully paid shares at $10.42 per share on 5 January 2026, Holman’s total indirect holding rose to 27,724 shares, signalling routine reinvestment activity rather than a strategic shift, with no trading during a closed period and no related changes in contractual interests reported.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CKF) stock is a Buy with a A$12.30 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Collins Foods stock, see the AU:CKF Stock Forecast page.

Collins Foods Seeks ASX Quotation for New Dividend Plan Shares

Collins Foods Limited has applied to the ASX for quotation of 116,691 new fully paid ordinary shares, issued on 5 January 2026 under a dividend or distribution plan. The relatively small share issue forms part of the company’s routine capital management and shareholder reward mechanisms, marginally increasing the number of shares on issue while reinforcing its practice of offering equity-based participation to investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CKF) stock is a Buy with a A$12.30 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Collins Foods stock, see the AU:CKF Stock Forecast page.

Collins Foods Confirms DRP Pricing for Interim Dividend

Collins Foods Limited has updated its earlier dividend notification for holders of its ordinary fully paid shares, confirming that the dividend reinvestment plan (DRP) price is now available for the interim distribution relating to the six‑month period ended 12 October 2025. The update, lodged with the ASX on 30 December 2025, refines details originally announced on 3 December 2025 and applies to investors on the record as of 8 December 2025, providing greater clarity for shareholders choosing to reinvest their dividends and underscoring the company’s ongoing use of equity-based funding to support its capital management strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CKF) stock is a Buy with a A$12.30 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Collins Foods stock, see the AU:CKF Stock Forecast page.

Change in Substantial Holding for Collins Foods

Collins Foods Limited has announced that Australian Retirement Trust Pty Ltd has ceased to be a substantial holder of its shares as of December 9, 2025. This change in substantial holding could impact Collins Foods’ shareholder composition and influence its market dynamics, although the specific implications for stakeholders are not detailed in the release.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CKF) stock is a Buy with a A$12.30 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Collins Foods stock, see the AU:CKF Stock Forecast page.

Collins Foods Updates Dividend Distribution Details

Collins Foods Limited has issued an update to a previous announcement regarding its ordinary dividend distribution. The update corrects an error in the previously stated conduit foreign income amount per security, which is now confirmed to be 0.00. This correction pertains to the dividend distribution for the six-month period ending on October 12, 2025, with key dates including a record date of December 8, 2025, and an ex-date of December 5, 2025. The announcement ensures transparency and accuracy in financial reporting, which is crucial for maintaining stakeholder trust and compliance with market regulations.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CKF) stock is a Hold with a A$10.10 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Collins Foods stock, see the AU:CKF Stock Forecast page.

State Street Corporation Ceases Substantial Holding in Collins Foods

Collins Foods Limited has announced that State Street Corporation and its subsidiaries have ceased to be substantial holders in the company as of November 28, 2025. This change in substantial holding could impact Collins Foods’ shareholder dynamics and influence within the market, potentially affecting its strategic decisions and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CKF) stock is a Buy with a A$13.07 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Collins Foods stock, see the AU:CKF Stock Forecast page.

Collins Foods Achieves Record Revenue Amidst Global Expansion

Collins Foods Limited reported record revenues for the half year ending October 2025, driven by operational excellence and new product launches amidst cost of living pressures in Australia and Europe. The company achieved a 6.6% increase in revenue to $750.3 million, with significant growth in both regions. The KFC brand in Australia saw a 5.0% revenue increase, supported by digital growth and product innovation, while KFC Europe experienced a 14.6% revenue rise, with improved brand execution and digital investments. The company successfully refinanced its debt facilities, reduced net debt, and declared a fully franked interim dividend, positioning itself for future growth opportunities.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CKF) stock is a Buy with a A$13.07 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Collins Foods stock, see the AU:CKF Stock Forecast page.

Collins Foods Achieves Record Revenues and Strong Financial Performance in HY26

Collins Foods Limited has reported record revenues for the first half of the 2026 fiscal year, driven by a strong focus on operational excellence. The company has seen an increase in earnings and margins compared to the previous year, supported by strong cash flow and a reduced net leverage ratio. This financial health allows Collins Foods to invest further in its network and technology, with a positive outlook for future growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CKF) stock is a Buy with a A$13.07 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Collins Foods stock, see the AU:CKF Stock Forecast page.

Collins Foods Announces New Dividend Distribution

Collins Foods Limited has announced a new dividend distribution for its ordinary fully paid shares, with a distribution amount of AUD 0.13 per share. The ex-dividend date is set for December 5, 2025, and the payment will be made on January 5, 2026. This announcement reflects the company’s financial strategy and commitment to providing returns to its shareholders, potentially impacting its market positioning and investor relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CKF) stock is a Buy with a A$13.07 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Collins Foods stock, see the AU:CKF Stock Forecast page.

Collins Foods Reports Strong Half-Year Financial Performance

Collins Foods Limited reported a 6.6% increase in revenue and a 12.7% rise in net profit for the half-year ending October 12, 2025, compared to the previous year. The company declared an interim dividend of 13.0 cents per share, reflecting its strong financial performance, and continues to offer a Dividend Reinvestment Plan to shareholders, indicating a stable and growing financial outlook.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CKF) stock is a Buy with a A$13.07 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Collins Foods stock, see the AU:CKF Stock Forecast page.