Collins Foods (CKF) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$1.24B
• Dividend Yield: 2.66%
• Average Volume (3M): 536.05K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 104.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.44
• Revenue Growth: 4.61%
• EPS Growth: -76.47%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 15,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Restaurants
• EPS (TTM): 0.26
• Shares Outstanding: 118,019,230
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 560,459
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 536,047
• PEG Ratio: -1.30
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.39
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.64
• P/FCF Ratio: 8.39
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: AU$12.17
• Price Target Upside: 13.35% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 69 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$12.50 ▲(16.39% Upside)

Collins Foods' strong earnings performance and positive technical indicators are offset by high valuation concerns and operational challenges. The company's ability to manage debt and improve operational efficiency will be crucial for future performance.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

The company's strong revenue growth, driven by operational execution and product innovation, indicates a solid market position and potential for continued expansion.

Cash Flow Management

Effective cash flow management and debt reduction enhance financial stability, allowing for reinvestment and shareholder returns, supporting long-term growth.

Operational Excellence

Operational improvements and digital investments have led to margin enhancements, showcasing the company's ability to sustain profitability in its core market.

Negative Factors

Rising Debt Levels

Increased leverage poses financial risks, potentially impacting future financial flexibility and stability if not managed carefully.

Profitability Challenges

Weakened profitability metrics indicate operational efficiency challenges, which could hinder long-term earnings growth if not addressed.

Cost Inflation Concerns

Rising commodity and labor costs threaten future margin sustainability, necessitating strategic cost management to maintain profitability.

Collins Foods Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Collins Foods Limited (CKF) is a prominent Australian company specializing in the quick-service restaurant sector. The company operates primarily as a franchisee of KFC in Australia and has expanded its portfolio to include other restaurant brands. CKF focuses on delivering quality food and exceptional customer service while maintaining operational efficiency across its restaurant operations. Its core offerings include fried chicken, burgers, and other fast-food items, catering to a diverse customer base across various locations.

How the Company Makes Money

Collins Foods generates revenue primarily through its franchise operations, particularly its KFC restaurants, which constitute a significant portion of its business model. The company earns money by operating these outlets, where it sells food and beverages directly to consumers. Additional revenue streams include franchise fees and royalties from its KFC franchise operations. The company benefits from significant partnerships with suppliers for inventory, ensuring a steady flow of quality ingredients at competitive prices. Furthermore, CKF leverages marketing initiatives and promotions to drive sales, and its focus on customer experience helps in maintaining a loyal customer base, contributing to its overall earnings.

Collins Foods Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Collins Foods shows strong revenue growth and cash flow management, but faces challenges with profitability and rising debt levels. Operational efficiency and leverage management are key areas for improvement.

Income Statement

Collins Foods has shown a strong revenue growth trend over the past few years, but recent profitability metrics such as EBIT and net profit margins have weakened, likely impacting overall profitability. The gross profit margin remains strong, indicating efficient cost management, yet the declining EBIT margin suggests challenges in operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company has maintained a stable equity base, but the rising debt levels have increased the debt-to-equity ratio, posing potential financial risks. The equity ratio is fair, but the high leverage could impact financial stability if not managed carefully.

Cash Flow

Collins Foods has demonstrated strong operating cash flow, which is a positive indicator of cash-generating ability relative to net income. Free cash flow growth has been positive, supporting potential for reinvestment and shareholder returns, despite some fluctuations in capital expenditures.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.52B	1.52B	1.49B	1.35B	1.18B	1.07B
Gross Profit	776.42M	776.42M	750.95M	676.27M	619.34M	559.91M
EBITDA	124.28M	186.24M	227.85M	146.26M	203.99M	174.32M
Net Income	8.83M	8.83M	76.72M	12.75M	54.80M	32.95M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.48B	1.48B	1.42B	1.54B	1.41B	1.27B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	119.12M	119.12M	83.82M	80.24M	97.22M	95.72M
Total Debt	890.83M	890.83M	834.54M	843.37M	748.38M	669.30M
Total Liabilities	1.08B	1.08B	991.78M	1.16B	889.44M	790.87M
Stockholders Equity	405.32M	405.32M	426.44M	384.50M	393.53M	362.60M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	115.69M	115.69M	93.64M	70.59M	83.12M	81.35M
Operating Cash Flow	181.44M	181.44M	176.39M	146.22M	156.33M	128.25M
Investing Cash Flow	-67.91M	-67.91M	-53.55M	-93.54M	-97.31M	-50.92M
Financing Cash Flow	-77.97M	-77.97M	-118.90M	-65.94M	-61.95M	-93.03M

Collins Foods Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 10.74
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:CKF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 10.74 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.71, above the 50-day MA of 10.70, and above the 200-day MA of 9.27, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.11 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.74 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.58 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:CKF.

Collins Foods Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CKF	69 Neutral	AU$1.24B	104.46	2.90%	2.66%	4.61%	-76.47%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
DMP	59 Neutral	AU$2.09B	-475.27	-0.70%	3.48%	-3.09%	-104.37%
AMA	53 Neutral	AU$378.07M	-47.31	-4.58%	―	13.54%	66.33%
RFG	51 Neutral	AU$93.07M	-6.18	-6.95%	―	10.13%	-353.94%
GYG	51 Neutral	AU$2.25B	154.70	3.94%	0.57%	27.40%	―
OLI	41 Neutral	AU$4.33M	-1.75	―	―	-6.32%	-9.62%

Collins Foods Corporate Events

Collins Foods Updates Dividend Distribution Details

Collins Foods Limited has issued an update to a previous announcement regarding its ordinary dividend distribution. The update corrects an error in the previously stated conduit foreign income amount per security, which is now confirmed to be 0.00. This correction pertains to the dividend distribution for the six-month period ending on October 12, 2025, with key dates including a record date of December 8, 2025, and an ex-date of December 5, 2025. The announcement ensures transparency and accuracy in financial reporting, which is crucial for maintaining stakeholder trust and compliance with market regulations.

State Street Corporation Ceases Substantial Holding in Collins Foods

Collins Foods Limited has announced that State Street Corporation and its subsidiaries have ceased to be substantial holders in the company as of November 28, 2025. This change in substantial holding could impact Collins Foods’ shareholder dynamics and influence within the market, potentially affecting its strategic decisions and stakeholder interests.

Collins Foods Achieves Record Revenue Amidst Global Expansion

Collins Foods Limited reported record revenues for the half year ending October 2025, driven by operational excellence and new product launches amidst cost of living pressures in Australia and Europe. The company achieved a 6.6% increase in revenue to $750.3 million, with significant growth in both regions. The KFC brand in Australia saw a 5.0% revenue increase, supported by digital growth and product innovation, while KFC Europe experienced a 14.6% revenue rise, with improved brand execution and digital investments. The company successfully refinanced its debt facilities, reduced net debt, and declared a fully franked interim dividend, positioning itself for future growth opportunities.

Collins Foods Achieves Record Revenues and Strong Financial Performance in HY26

Collins Foods Limited has reported record revenues for the first half of the 2026 fiscal year, driven by a strong focus on operational excellence. The company has seen an increase in earnings and margins compared to the previous year, supported by strong cash flow and a reduced net leverage ratio. This financial health allows Collins Foods to invest further in its network and technology, with a positive outlook for future growth.

Collins Foods Announces New Dividend Distribution

Collins Foods Limited has announced a new dividend distribution for its ordinary fully paid shares, with a distribution amount of AUD 0.13 per share. The ex-dividend date is set for December 5, 2025, and the payment will be made on January 5, 2026. This announcement reflects the company’s financial strategy and commitment to providing returns to its shareholders, potentially impacting its market positioning and investor relations.

Collins Foods Reports Strong Half-Year Financial Performance

Collins Foods Limited reported a 6.6% increase in revenue and a 12.7% rise in net profit for the half-year ending October 12, 2025, compared to the previous year. The company declared an interim dividend of 13.0 cents per share, reflecting its strong financial performance, and continues to offer a Dividend Reinvestment Plan to shareholders, indicating a stable and growing financial outlook.

Collins Foods to Announce HY26 Financial Results on December 2, 2025

Collins Foods Limited is set to announce its financial results for the half year ending October 12, 2025, on December 2, 2025. The company will hold a briefing session for investors and analysts on the same day, providing an opportunity for stakeholders to engage with the company’s financial performance and outlook.

Collins Foods Director Increases Stake with New Performance Rights

Collins Foods Limited has announced a change in the director’s interest, with Xavier Marie Olivier Simonet acquiring 140,579 performance rights, increasing his total holdings to 202,216 performance rights. This change is part of the company’s FY26 Longer Term Variable Rights Plan, approved at the 2025 Annual General Meeting, indicating a strategic move to align director incentives with the company’s long-term performance goals.

Collins Foods Issues New Equity Securities for Employee Incentive

Collins Foods Limited announced the issuance of 527,400 unquoted equity securities under an employee incentive scheme. This move is part of the company’s strategy to motivate and retain key personnel, potentially enhancing its operational efficiency and competitive positioning in the fast-food sector.

State Street Corporation Ceases Substantial Holding in Collins Foods

Collins Foods Limited has announced that State Street Corporation and its subsidiaries have ceased to be substantial holders in the company as of November 7, 2025. This change in substantial holding may impact Collins Foods’ shareholder structure and could influence future corporate decisions and strategies.

Collins Foods Implements Executive Retention Bonuses for Strategic Stability

Collins Foods Limited has announced a retention bonus arrangement for key executives, including CEO Xavier Simonet, to ensure leadership stability during a crucial phase of strategic execution. The Board believes this initiative will benefit the company and its shareholders by maintaining continuity in leadership, which is essential for the successful delivery of strategic goals.

Collins Foods Announces Change in Substantial Holding Status

Collins Foods Limited has announced a change in its substantial holding status, as State Street Corporation and its subsidiaries have ceased to be substantial holders as of October 27, 2025. This change in substantial holding could impact Collins Foods’ market dynamics and shareholder structure, potentially influencing its strategic decisions and investor relations.

State Street Corporation Ceases Substantial Holding in Collins Foods

Collins Foods Limited has announced a change in substantial holding, with State Street Corporation and its subsidiaries ceasing to be substantial holders as of October 17, 2025. This change in holding may impact Collins Foods’ shareholder structure and could influence future voting outcomes and strategic decisions within the company.

Collins Foods Hosts Investor Day to Strengthen Market Position

Collins Foods Limited announced the holding of an Investor Day on October 21, 2025, aimed at engaging with investors and presenting the company’s strategic direction. The event is expected to impact Collins Foods’ operations by potentially strengthening investor relations and enhancing its market positioning.

State Street Corporation Ceases Substantial Holding in Collins Foods

Collins Foods Limited has announced that State Street Corporation and its subsidiaries have ceased to be substantial holders in the company. This change in substantial holding may impact the company’s shareholder structure and could have implications for its market positioning and stakeholder relationships.

Collins Foods Completes Refinancing of Debt Facilities

Collins Foods Limited, a company listed on the Australian Securities Exchange, has successfully completed the financial close of its refinanced syndicated debt facilities. This development marks a significant step in the company’s financial strategy, potentially enhancing its operational flexibility and market positioning.

Collins Foods Issues Unquoted Securities Under Employee Incentive Scheme

Collins Foods Limited announced the issuance of unquoted securities under its employee incentive scheme, with a total of 1,542 ownership share plan rights being allocated. This move is part of the company’s strategy to incentivize employees and align their interests with the company’s growth objectives, potentially strengthening its position in the competitive food service industry.

Collins Foods Issues Unquoted Securities to Boost Employee Engagement

Collins Foods Limited announced the issuance of 55,320 unquoted securities under its employee incentive scheme, which are not intended to be quoted on the ASX. This move is part of the company’s strategy to align employee interests with its growth objectives, potentially enhancing its operational efficiency and market competitiveness.

Collins Foods Secures New Debt Refinancing to Fuel Growth

Collins Foods Limited has successfully negotiated a refinancing of its syndicated debt facilities, transitioning from existing facilities of $180 million and €145 million to new revolving facilities amounting to $120 million and €200 million. This refinancing, with maturities extending to 2028 and 2030, underscores the company’s strong banking relationships and credit quality, and is expected to support its strategic growth plans in Australia and internationally.

Collins Foods Updates Cessation of Securities Notification

Collins Foods Limited announced an update to a previous notification regarding the cessation of securities. The update involves an amendment to the number of Performance Rights that lapsed, specifically reducing the count by 2,085, which were previously included in an earlier announcement. This adjustment reflects the company’s ongoing management of its issued capital and may have implications for its financial reporting and stakeholder communications.