Collins Foods Limited (AU:CKF)
ASX:CKF
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Collins Foods
(Sydney:CKF)
Select Model
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
AU$9.00
▼(-16.20% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:12/02/25
Collins Foods' strong earnings performance and positive technical indicators are offset by high valuation concerns and operational challenges. The company's ability to manage debt and improve operational efficiency will be crucial for future performance.
Positive Factors
Sustained revenue and profit growth
Record H1 revenue (+6.6%), double-digit underlying EBITDA growth and a near-30% lift in NPAT indicate durable operational momentum. Consistent top-line expansion with rising underlying profits supports reinvestment, funds strategic initiatives, and improves returns over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Rising leverage
Higher leverage increases interest and refinancing risk and reduces financial flexibility if industry headwinds persist. Even with recent net-debt reduction, an elevated debt-to-equity ratio can constrain capital allocation and increase vulnerability to cost shocks over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Sustained revenue and profit growth
Record H1 revenue (+6.6%), double-digit underlying EBITDA growth and a near-30% lift in NPAT indicate durable operational momentum. Consistent top-line expansion with rising underlying profits supports reinvestment, funds strategic initiatives, and improves returns over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Collins Foods (CKF) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$1.02B
Dividend Yield2.67%
Average Volume (3M)536.05K
Price to Earnings (P/E)85.2
Beta (1Y)0.61
Revenue Growth4.61%
EPS Growth-76.47%
CountryAU
Employees15,000
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryRestaurants
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.10
Shares Outstanding118,135,925
10 Day Avg. Volume560,459
30 Day Avg. Volume536,047
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.30
Price to Book (P/B)1.55
Price to Sales (P/S)0.64
P/FCF Ratio5.42
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$11.02Price Target Upside2.60% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)0.59
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$1.70B
Collins Foods Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Collins Foods Limited operates and manages restaurants across Australia, Europe, and Asia, featuring a diverse portfolio of well-known brands such as KFC, Taco Bell, and Sizzler. As of December 31, 2021, the company oversaw 261 franchised KFC esta...
How the Company Makes Money
Collins Foods makes money primarily by operating quick-service restaurants and retaining the restaurant-level sales revenue generated from customer purchases (food, beverages, and add-ons) across its store network. Its key revenue stream is system...
Collins Foods Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Dec 01, 2025
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jun 23, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a strong overall performance with record revenue and significant growth in key financial metrics, underpinned by operational excellence and sustainability achievements. However, challenges in Europe, especially the Netherlands, and issues like potential wage underpayments and anticipated cost pressures pose concerns.Positive Updates
Record Revenue and Growth
Collins Foods achieved the highest first half-year revenue in the company's history, up 6.6% compared to last year. Underlying EBITDA grew by 11%, and underlying NPAT increased by 29.5%.
Negative Updates
Challenges in Europe
The Netherlands experienced cost of living pressures with only a 0.4% same-store sales increase, and avian flu-related poultry cost inflation held back margin improvements.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Revenue and Growth
Collins Foods achieved the highest first half-year revenue in the company's history, up 6.6% compared to last year. Underlying EBITDA grew by 11%, and underlying NPAT increased by 29.5%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
During the Collins Foods Limited HY '26 Results Conference Call, CEO Xavier Simonet highlighted the company's record performance with a 6.6% increase in revenue to $750.3 million. This growth was attributed to strong operational execution and product innovation, particularly in KFC Australia, which saw same-store sales increase by 2.3%. The company's underlying EBITDA rose by 11% to $113.9 million, while underlying NPAT increased by 29.5%. The return on equity improved by 190 basis points to 14.1%. Despite challenging consumer environments, Collins Foods announced a favorable upgrade to its full-year outlook, targeting NPAT growth in the mid- to high teens. The company declared a fully franked interim dividend of $0.13 per share. Operational excellence remained a key focus, with ongoing investments in digital channels and new product launches, such as the Kwench beverage line trialed in Cairns.Collins Foods Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
65
Positive
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Apr 2025 | Apr 2024 | Apr 2023 | Apr 2022 | Apr 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.57B | 1.52B | 1.49B | 1.35B | 1.18B | 1.07B |
| Gross Profit | 806.87M | 776.42M | 750.95M | 676.27M | 619.34M | 559.91M |
| EBITDA | 132.90M | 186.24M | 227.85M | 146.26M | 203.99M | 174.32M |
| Net Income | 11.90M | 8.83M | 76.72M | 12.75M | 54.80M | 32.61M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.47B | 2.29B | 1.42B | 1.54B | 1.28B | 1.15B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 101.61M | 184.28M | 83.82M | 80.24M | 97.22M | 95.72M |
| Total Debt | 1.47B | 1.38B | 834.54M | 843.37M | 748.38M | 669.30M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.05B | 1.67B | 991.78M | 1.16B | 889.44M | 790.87M |
| Stockholders Equity | 417.18M | 627.04M | 426.44M | 384.50M | 393.53M | 362.60M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 159.88M | 178.97M | 93.64M | 70.59M | 83.12M | 81.35M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 231.85M | 280.69M | 176.39M | 146.22M | 156.33M | 128.25M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -77.95M | -105.06M | -53.55M | -93.54M | -97.31M | -50.58M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -123.76M | -120.63M | -118.90M | -65.94M | -61.95M | -93.03M |
Collins Foods Technical Analysis
Positive
10.74
Price Trends
8.38
Positive
9.20
Negative
9.89
Negative
Market Momentum
<0.01
Negative
56.15
Neutral
55.98
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:CKF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 10.74 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.37, above the 50-day MA of 8.38, and above the 200-day MA of 9.89, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.15 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 55.98 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:CKF.
Collins Foods Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | AU$1.02B | 85.23 | 2.89% | 2.67% | 4.61% | -76.47% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
59 Neutral | AU$1.51B | 25.30 | 8.83% | 3.58% | -1.35% | 258.94% | |
57 Neutral | AU$1.95B | 111.07 | 4.82% | 0.56% | 25.22% | ― | |
50 Neutral | AU$41.09M | -2.02 | -10.34% | ― | -0.47% | -326.66% | |
46 Neutral | AU$3.24M | -2.98 | 5.84% | ― | -8.96% | 69.23% | |
40 Underperform | AU$729.88M | -1.39 | -57.00% | ― | -26.19% | 89.24% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
AU:CKF
Collins Foods
8.61
1.40
19.43%
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Collins Foods Corporate Events
Collins Foods Deepens German Push With Bavarian KFC Acquisition
Jun 1, 2026
Collins Foods has completed the acquisition of eight KFC restaurants in Bavaria, Germany, from JJ Restaurant GmbH Co. KG, boosting its German footprint by about 50%. Centered around Munich, the new portfolio expands the group’s presence acr...
State Street Group Ceases to Be Substantial Holder in Collins Foods
May 22, 2026
State Street Corporation and several of its asset management subsidiaries have notified Collins Foods Limited that they have ceased to be substantial shareholders as of 20 May 2026. The filing indicates a reduction in their relevant voting interes...
Collins Foods Advances Exit from 20 Taco Bell Stores as Partnership Deal Progresses
Apr 30, 2026
Collins Foods has confirmed that the key condition for transitioning 20 Taco Bell restaurants to a new partnership between a Taco Bell-affiliated entity and Restaurant Brands Australia has been met, clearing a major hurdle in its planned exit from...
Collins Foods Issues New Unquoted Rights Under Employee Share Plan
Apr 30, 2026
Collins Foods Limited has issued 1,096 unquoted securities under its Ownership Share Plan Rights, as part of an employee incentive scheme. The new rights, which are not intended to be quoted on the ASX, reinforce the company’s strategy of us...
Collins Foods Reports Lapse of Performance and Ownership Share Rights
Apr 30, 2026
Collins Foods Limited has reported the lapse of 51,139 performance rights and 8,988 ownership share plan rights, following the failure or incapacity of the conditions attached to these equity incentives to be satisfied. The cessation of these cond...
State Street Group Ceases to Be Substantial Holder in Collins Foods
Apr 27, 2026
Collins Foods Limited has disclosed that State Street Corporation, through several subsidiaries including SSGA Funds Management and State Street Global Advisors entities in the U.K., U.S., Ireland, and Australia, has ceased to be a substantial hol...
State Street Group Ceases to Be Substantial Holder in Collins Foods
Apr 23, 2026
State Street Corporation, through various asset management and banking subsidiaries, has filed notice that it has ceased to be a substantial shareholder in Collins Foods Limited as of 21 April 2026. The change reflects a reduction in its relevant ...
Collins Foods Advances Taco Bell Exit to Refocus on Core KFC Business
Mar 30, 2026
Collins Foods has struck a conditional deal to transfer 20 of its 27 Australian Taco Bell restaurants, along with eligible staff and associated lease liabilities, to an affiliated Taco Bell company and Restaurant Brands Australia under a new partn...
Collins Foods Moves to Settle Employee Rest-Break Class Action for Up to $9m
Mar 12, 2026
Collins Foods Limited has agreed to a binding Heads of Agreement to settle a class action over 10-minute rest breaks launched in December 2023, with its share of the multi-party settlement capped at up to AUD 9 million, subject to Federal Court ap...
Collins Foods Flags Strategic Update on European Operations
Mar 11, 2026
Collins Foods Limited has released an update on its European operations, presented by its CEO, CFO, and General Manager Europe in March 2026. The announcement signals a formal briefing on recent developments and trading conditions in its European ...
Collins Foods accelerates German KFC rollout and refocuses Dutch operations
Mar 11, 2026
Collins Foods is accelerating its European growth strategy by signing an asset purchase agreement to acquire eight KFC restaurants in Bavaria, centred on Munich, and expanding its German development agreements to target 45 to 90 new outlets over f...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.