Collins Foods (CKF) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.11B
• Dividend Yield: 2.35%
• Average Volume (3M): 561.45K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 125.1
• Beta (1Y): 0.80
• Revenue Growth: 4.74%
• EPS Growth: 57.58%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 15,000
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 59
• Industry: Restaurants
• EPS (TTM): 0.23
• Shares Outstanding: 117,882,710
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 994,059
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 561,449
• PEG Ratio: -1.04
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.65
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 14.43
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $9.80
• Price Target Upside: 4.46% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 11

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$9.00 ▼(-4.05%Downside)

The overall stock score for Collins Foods Limited is driven primarily by its strong financial performance, characterized by robust revenue growth and profitability. However, the high debt-to-equity ratio presents a risk that could impact long-term stability. The technical analysis indicates a neutral to slightly bearish short-term outlook, while the valuation suggests the stock is fairly priced with moderate income potential. No significant earnings call or corporate event data impacts the score.

Positive Factors

Expansion

Plans to expand in new European markets via M&A are viewed positively, with an investor day planned as a catalyst.

Profitability

There is a pathway for improved medium-term profitability for the core KFC Australia franchise, underpinned by improved execution and COGS tailwinds.

Negative Factors

Energy Costs

Energy costs remain elevated in Australia, affecting the overall cost structure.

Interest and Tax Costs

Higher below-the-line interest and tax costs result in a slight lowering of estimated earnings per share.

Collins Foods Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Collins Foods Limited engages in the operation, management, and administration of restaurants in Australia, Europe, and Asia. The company operates restaurants under the KFC, Taco Bell, and Sizzler brands. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 261 franchised KFC restaurants in Australia, 17 franchised KFC restaurants in Germany, and 45 franchised KFC in the Netherlands; 20 Taco Bell restaurants, including 13 in Queensland, 6 in Victoria, and 1 in western Australia; and 66 franchised Sizzler restaurants in Thailand and Japan. Collins Foods Limited was founded in 1969 and is based in Hamilton, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

Collins Foods Limited generates revenue primarily through the operation of its franchised restaurant outlets, including KFC and Taco Bell. The company earns money by selling fast food directly to consumers through its extensive network of restaurants. CKF benefits from franchise agreements that allow it to operate these global brands within designated territories, generating sales from a wide range of menu items. Additionally, the company may receive franchise fees, royalties, and other income streams depending on the structure of its agreements with the parent companies of KFC and Taco Bell. Strategic location selection, marketing initiatives, and menu innovation are key factors that contribute to Collins Foods' earnings, enabling it to maintain competitive advantage and grow its market presence.

Collins Foods Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Collins Foods Limited exhibits strong financial health with impressive revenue growth and profitability. The company demonstrates efficient cost management and operational efficiency, with strong cash flow generation. However, the high debt-to-equity ratio indicates significant leverage, posing a potential risk if not managed carefully.

Income Statement

Collins Foods Limited has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a 10.41% increase from the previous year, indicating a healthy expansion trajectory. The gross profit margin is 50.44%, showcasing efficient cost management. The EBIT margin stands at 9.17% and the EBITDA margin at 15.31%, reflecting robust operational efficiency. The net profit margin improved to 5.15%, highlighting enhanced profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.96, indicating significant leverage. However, the return on equity is a strong 17.99%, suggesting effective use of shareholder equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is 30.07%, showing moderate financial stability with room for improving equity levels.

Cash Flow

The free cash flow grew by 32.59%, indicating improved cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 2.28, reflecting strong cash conversion from profits. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.22, showcasing solid cash flow efficiency relative to net earnings.

Breakdown	TTM	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021	Jun 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.50B	1.49B	1.35B	1.18B	1.07B	948.09M
Gross Profit	754.99M	750.95M	676.27M	619.34M	559.91M	500.19M
EBITDA	165.51M	227.85M	146.26M	219.14M	174.32M	168.85M
Net Income	50.39M	76.72M	12.75M	54.80M	32.95M	31.26M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.42B	1.42B	1.54B	1.41B	1.27B	1.30B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	89.41M	83.82M	80.24M	97.22M	95.72M	116.30M
Total Debt	838.11M	834.54M	843.37M	748.38M	669.30M	707.11M
Total Liabilities	989.07M	991.78M	1.16B	1.02B	904.16M	939.78M
Stockholders Equity	431.48M	426.44M	384.50M	393.53M	362.60M	357.80M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	91.00M	93.64M	70.59M	83.12M	81.35M	91.50M
Operating Cash Flow	169.57M	175.11M	146.22M	156.33M	128.25M	149.32M
Investing Cash Flow	-81.85M	-53.55M	-93.54M	-97.31M	-50.58M	-57.34M
Financing Cash Flow	-97.47M	-118.90M	-65.94M	-61.95M	-93.03M	-56.10M

Collins Foods Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 9.38
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:CKF, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.38 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.82, above the 50-day MA of 8.02, and above the 200-day MA of 8.08, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.24 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 77.99 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.39 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:CKF.

Collins Foods Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CKF	68 Neutral	$1.11B	125.07	2.40%	2.35%	4.74%	57.58%
Sector *	66 Neutral	£1.85B	11.46	6.20%	2.99%	0.64%	-17.57%
DPZUF		$1.18B	108.20	2.09%	5.57%	―	―
RFGPF		$86.32M	16.90	4.31%	―	―	―
36S		€1.81M	―		―	―	―
AMA	57 Neutral	AU$502.17M	525.00	1.53%	―	-1.09%	―
GYG	55 Neutral	AU$2.82B	―	-1.13%	―	26.77%	51.19%

Collins Foods Corporate Events

Collins Foods Gains Significant Investment from State Street

Collins Foods has announced a substantial holding by State Street Bank and Trust Company and its associates, indicating significant investment interest in the company. This development could impact Collins Foods’ market positioning by potentially influencing voting power and strategic decisions, given the substantial number of shares involved.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CKF) stock is a Buy with a A$14.20 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Collins Foods stock, see the AU:CKF Stock Forecast page.

Collins Foods Ceases Substantial Holding

Collins Foods Limited, a subsidiary of State Street Corporation, has announced that it has ceased to be a substantial holder in the company as of May 14, 2025. This change in substantial holding reflects a shift in the voting securities and associations related to the company, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder relationships.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CKF) stock is a Buy with a A$14.20 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Collins Foods stock, see the AU:CKF Stock Forecast page.

State Street Corporation Ceases Substantial Holding in Collins Foods

Collins Foods has announced that State Street Corporation and its subsidiaries have ceased to be substantial holders in the company as of May 8, 2025. This change in substantial holding may impact the company’s shareholder structure and influence in the market, potentially affecting its strategic decisions and stakeholder relations.

Collins Foods Issues New Employee Incentive Shares

Collins Foods Limited announced the issuance of 1,184 ownership share plan rights under an employee incentive scheme, which are not intended to be quoted on the ASX. This move reflects the company’s strategy to incentivize employees, potentially enhancing workforce motivation and aligning employee interests with corporate goals.

Collins Foods Limited Announces Cessation of Securities

Collins Foods Limited announced the cessation of certain securities due to unmet conditions. This includes the lapse of 180,680 performance rights and 8,767 ownership share plan rights. The cessation reflects the company’s internal adjustments and may impact its equity structure, signaling a shift in its strategic or operational focus.

Collins Foods Announces Strategic Review and Management Changes

Collins Foods Limited has announced a strategic review and management changes, with a briefing session scheduled for investors and analysts. This move is likely to impact the company’s operational strategies and could influence its positioning in the fast-food industry, potentially affecting stakeholders’ interests.

Collins Foods Pursues Operational Excellence and Strategic Growth

Collins Foods Limited is focusing on operational excellence by enhancing its restaurant network to improve customer experiences, drive same-store sales growth, and improve margins. The company is also looking to expand its scale through profitable new restaurant development and disciplined capital allocation, including mergers and acquisitions. Additionally, Collins Foods is reviewing its growth strategy to enhance shareholder value.

Allan Gray Australia Ceases Substantial Holding in Collins Foods

Allan Gray Australia Pty Ltd and its related entities have ceased to be substantial holders in Collins Foods Limited as of April 10, 2025. This change in shareholding could impact the company’s stock market dynamics and influence its strategic decisions, potentially affecting stakeholders’ interests.

Allan Gray Reduces Stake in Collins Foods Limited

Allan Gray Australia Pty Ltd, an investment manager, has reduced its voting power in Collins Foods Limited from 6.09% to 5.00% as of April 9, 2025. This change in substantial holding indicates a shift in investment strategy or portfolio adjustment by Allan Gray, potentially impacting the company’s shareholder dynamics and market perception.

Major Investment in Collins Foods by LA County Retirement Association

Collins Foods Limited has announced that the Los Angeles County Employees Retirement Association has become a substantial holder in the company as of April 8, 2025. This development indicates a significant investment and interest from a major institutional investor, potentially impacting Collins Foods’ market perception and stakeholder confidence.

State Street Corporation Ceases Substantial Holding in Collins Foods

Collins Foods Limited has announced that State Street Corporation and its subsidiaries have ceased to be substantial holders in the company as of April 3, 2025. This change in substantial holding may impact the company’s shareholder structure and influence, potentially affecting its strategic decisions and market positioning.

State Street Corporation Becomes Substantial Holder in Collins Foods

Collins Foods Limited has announced a significant change in its shareholder structure, with State Street Corporation and its subsidiaries becoming substantial holders. This development reflects a shift in the voting power dynamics within the company, as State Street now has the power to control the exercise of voting rights attached to a significant number of shares. This change could potentially influence the company’s strategic decisions and impact its operations, given State Street’s role as an investment manager and trustee.

Collins Foods Substantial Holding Changes

Collins Foods Limited has announced a change in substantial holding, with State Street Corporation and its subsidiaries ceasing to be substantial holders as of April 1, 2025. This change in holdings may impact the company’s shareholder dynamics and could have implications for its market strategy and stakeholder relationships.

State Street Corporation Becomes Substantial Holder in Collins Foods

Collins Foods Limited has announced a new substantial holder, State Street Corporation and its subsidiaries, which now hold a significant voting power in the company. This development could potentially influence Collins Foods’ strategic decisions and market positioning, given State Street’s influence as a major institutional investor.

State Street Corporation Ceases Substantial Holding in Collins Foods Limited

Collins Foods Limited has announced that State Street Corporation and its subsidiaries, which previously held a substantial interest in the company, have ceased to be substantial holders as of March 27, 2025. This change in substantial holding could impact the company’s shareholder dynamics and influence its market positioning, as State Street Corporation’s disassociation may alter voting interests and strategic decisions within Collins Foods Limited.

State Street Corporation Ceases Substantial Holding in Collins Foods Limited

Collins Foods Limited has announced that State Street Corporation and its subsidiaries have ceased to be substantial holders in the company as of March 21, 2025. This change in substantial holding could impact the company’s shareholder structure and influence its market dynamics, potentially affecting investor confidence and stakeholder interests.