COG Financial Services Limited (COG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$363.34M
• Dividend Yield: 2.86%
• Average Volume (3M): 275.48K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 18.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.18
• Revenue Growth: -26.30%
• EPS Growth: 40.12%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 1,000
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Financial - Capital Markets
• EPS (TTM): 0.05
• Shares Outstanding: 211,858,050
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 303,634
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 275,475
• PEG Ratio: 0.41
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.10
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.87
• P/FCF Ratio: 6.96
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: AU$2.57
• Price Target Upside: 51.18% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 55 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$2.00 ▲(17.65% Upside)

The score is held back primarily by weak technicals (price below key moving averages and negative MACD). Financial performance is mixed—better margins and strong cash conversion are offset by a sharp revenue growth decline and high leverage. Valuation is reasonable but not compelling, with the dividend yield providing partial support.

Positive Factors

Profitability Margins

Improved profitability margins indicate better cost management and operational efficiency, which can enhance long-term financial stability.

Cash Flow Management

Effective cash flow management ensures the company can meet its financial obligations and invest in growth opportunities, supporting long-term sustainability.

Gross Profit Margin

An improved gross profit margin suggests enhanced cost efficiency, which can lead to stronger profitability and competitive positioning over time.

Negative Factors

Revenue Decline

A significant decline in revenue growth can hinder the company's ability to expand and compete, potentially impacting long-term profitability and market share.

High Leverage

High leverage increases financial risk and can constrain the company's ability to invest in growth, affecting long-term financial health and flexibility.

Free Cash Flow Decline

A decline in free cash flow growth may limit the company's ability to fund operations and strategic initiatives, impacting its long-term growth potential.

COG Financial Services Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

COG Financial Services Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in equipment financing and broking, aggregation, insurance broking, and novated leasing activities in Australia. The company operates through three segments: Finance Broking and Aggregation; Funds Management and Lending; and All Other/Intersegment. It also provides management of investment funds; provides financing arrangements to commercial customers for essential business assets; and managed IT services. The company was formerly known as Consolidated Operations Group Limited and changed its name to COG Financial Services Limited in November 2020. COG Financial Services Limited was incorporated in 2002 and is based in Chatswood, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

COG generates revenue through various channels, primarily by earning interest on loans it provides to customers for vehicle and equipment purchases. The company charges fees for loan origination and administration, which contribute significantly to its income. Additionally, COG may earn income through partnerships with dealerships and other financial institutions, enhancing its distribution network and customer reach. The company also explores opportunities in asset management and servicing, thereby diversifying its revenue streams. Its technology-driven approach allows for lower operational costs, improving overall profitability.

COG Financial Services Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mixed fundamentals: profitability margins improved (gross margin 77.07%, net margin 5.11%), but revenue growth fell sharply (-28.24%). Leverage is elevated (debt-to-equity 2.47), while cash flow quality is solid (FCF to net income 0.93) despite slightly negative FCF growth (-3.41%).

Income Statement

COG Financial Services Limited has shown a mixed performance in its income statement. The company experienced a significant decline in revenue growth rate by 28.24% in the latest period, which is a concern. However, the gross profit margin improved to 77.07%, indicating better cost management. The net profit margin also increased to 5.11%, suggesting improved profitability. Despite these improvements, the declining revenue growth rate poses a risk to future profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 2.47, indicating significant leverage, which could pose financial risks. The equity ratio is relatively low, suggesting limited equity financing. However, the company has managed to maintain a stable return on equity, which reflects its ability to generate profits from shareholders' investments. Overall, the high leverage is a concern, but the company has shown resilience in maintaining profitability.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement indicates a slight decline in free cash flow growth by 3.41%, which is a concern. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.16, showing that the company generates sufficient cash from operations relative to its net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 0.93, indicating effective cash management. Despite the decline in free cash flow growth, the company maintains healthy cash flow ratios.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	367.73M	367.73M	362.35M	366.01M	320.77M	267.77M
Gross Profit	234.48M	283.43M	169.20M	132.47M	105.39M	92.26M
EBITDA	75.16M	75.16M	74.28M	62.41M	53.25M	48.32M
Net Income	18.77M	18.77M	12.85M	8.05M	19.68M	-26.38M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	694.80M	694.80M	687.12M	593.00M	518.22M	476.69M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	149.25M	149.25M	125.68M	101.80M	76.11M	94.51M
Total Debt	375.98M	375.98M	376.75M	283.73M	243.27M	225.94M
Total Liabilities	488.30M	488.30M	483.49M	378.53M	310.61M	287.03M
Stockholders Equity	152.08M	152.08M	151.69M	163.92M	170.95M	152.34M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	45.92M	45.92M	35.66M	28.55M	205.73M	187.95M
Operating Cash Flow	49.30M	49.30M	46.36M	31.79M	208.19M	190.85M
Investing Cash Flow	3.43M	2.66M	-87.16M	-19.53M	-201.93M	-75.11M
Financing Cash Flow	-29.16M	-28.39M	64.69M	30.12M	-24.67M	-55.92M

COG Financial Services Limited Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1.70
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:COG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.7 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.97, below the 50-day MA of 2.03, and below the 200-day MA of 1.84, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.08 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 26.05 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.60 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:COG.

COG Financial Services Limited Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
NWL	64 Neutral	AU$6.13B	52.47	67.81%	1.45%	28.29%	39.39%
OFX	60 Neutral	AU$108.90M	6.57	9.31%	―	-5.73%	-36.36%
COG	55 Neutral	AU$363.34M	18.23	12.36%	2.86%	-26.30%	40.12%
PPS	50 Neutral	AU$380.23M	27.56	12.27%	2.81%	24.56%	59.32%
RZI	48 Neutral	AU$66.92M	-106.45	-0.15%	―	5.03%	52.31%
FNX	46 Neutral	AU$11.21M	-2.15	-34.88%	―	43.00%	-6078.57%

COG Financial Services Limited Corporate Events

NAOS Asset Management Ceases Substantial Holding in COG Financial Services

NAOS Asset Management Limited has announced that it has ceased to be a substantial holder of shares in COG Financial Services Limited. This change in shareholding could influence COG’s market dynamics and investor perceptions, as substantial shareholders often play a significant role in company governance and strategic decisions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:COG) stock is a Hold with a A$2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on COG Financial Services Limited stock, see the AU:COG Stock Forecast page.

COG Financial Services Reports Positive AGM Outcomes

COG Financial Services Limited announced the successful outcomes of its 2025 Annual General Meeting, where all proposed resolutions were passed via a poll. Notably, the resolution for the adoption of the Remuneration Report received over 75% approval, and the re-election of directors Mr. Cameron McCullagh and Mr. Peter Rollason was confirmed with significant support. These results indicate strong shareholder confidence in the company’s leadership and strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:COG) stock is a Buy with a A$2.63 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on COG Financial Services Limited stock, see the AU:COG Stock Forecast page.

COG Financial Services Reports Positive FY 2025 Financial Results

COG Financial Services Limited reported its financial results for FY 2025, highlighting a positive year with increases in revenue and EBITDA attributable to shareholders. The company achieved a 1% increase in underlying revenue and a 4% rise in EBITDA compared to the previous year, despite a 4% decline in EPSA. These results reflect COG’s strategic focus on enhancing shareholder value and operational efficiency.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:COG) stock is a Buy with a A$2.63 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on COG Financial Services Limited stock, see the AU:COG Stock Forecast page.