COG Financial Services Limited (COG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$325.20M
• Dividend Yield: 2.86%
• Average Volume (3M): 275.48K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 15.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.08
• Revenue Growth: -26.30%
• EPS Growth: 40.12%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 1,000
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Financial - Capital Markets
• EPS (TTM): 0.06
• Shares Outstanding: 211,858,050
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 303,634
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 275,475
• PEG Ratio: 0.41
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.10
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.87
• P/FCF Ratio: 6.96
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: AU$2.19
• Price Target Upside: 42.21% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.15
• Revenue Forecast (FY): AU$412.04M

• Rating: 54 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$1.50 ▼(-2.60% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/05/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/05/26

The score is primarily held back by weak technicals (price below all key moving averages and negative MACD) and mixed financial performance (sharp revenue growth decline and high leverage). Offsetting factors include improved profitability margins, generally healthy cash-flow ratios, and a moderate dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Improved Profitability Margins

Sizable gross (77.07%) and improved net margins (5.11%) indicate the company can extract strong economics from asset-finance activities. Durable margins reflect pricing power, cost control and mix benefits across origination and portfolio income, supporting earnings resilience even with revenue volatility.

Strong Cash Generation Ratio

A free-cash-flow-to-net-income ratio near 1.0 signals effective conversion of accounting profits into cash, aiding debt service, portfolio funding and dividend capacity. Sustained cash conversion improves financial flexibility and supports reinvestment or deleveraging over the medium term.

Diversified Revenue Streams

A business model spanning brokerage/origination, broker aggregation, portfolio ownership and ancillary fees spreads revenue risk across channels. This structural diversification reduces dependence on single counterparties, supports cross-selling and stabilises cash flows across economic cycles.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

A debt-to-equity ratio of 2.47 denotes significant reliance on debt funding which raises refinancing and interest-rate sensitivity risks. High leverage constrains strategic flexibility, increases default exposure during downturns and can amplify earnings volatility over the medium term.

Sharp Revenue Decline

A large fall in top-line growth erodes scale advantages and pressures future profitability. Sustained revenue contraction can reduce origination fees, shrink portfolio income over time, and force reliance on balance-sheet strategies or cost cutting that may harm long-term growth prospects.

Low Equity Base

A relatively low equity ratio limits shock absorption and increases dependence on external borrowing. This structural capital constraint raises dilution risk if equity is needed, and may restrict the firm's ability to scale originations or hold portfolios without adding costly funding.

COG Financial Services Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

COG Financial Services Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in equipment financing and broking, aggregation, insurance broking, and novated leasing activities in Australia. The company operates through three segments: Finance Broking and Aggregation; Funds Management and Lending; and All Other/Intersegment. It also provides management of investment funds; provides financing arrangements to commercial customers for essential business assets; and managed IT services. The company was formerly known as Consolidated Operations Group Limited and changed its name to COG Financial Services Limited in November 2020. COG Financial Services Limited was incorporated in 2002 and is based in Chatswood, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

COG generates revenue through various channels, primarily by earning interest on loans it provides to customers for vehicle and equipment purchases. The company charges fees for loan origination and administration, which contribute significantly to its income. Additionally, COG may earn income through partnerships with dealerships and other financial institutions, enhancing its distribution network and customer reach. The company also explores opportunities in asset management and servicing, thereby diversifying its revenue streams. Its technology-driven approach allows for lower operational costs, improving overall profitability.

COG Financial Services Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mixed fundamentals: profitability margins improved (gross margin 77.07%, net margin 5.11%), but revenue growth declined sharply (-28.24%). Balance sheet leverage is high (debt-to-equity 2.47), while cash flow is generally supportive with strong free-cash-flow-to-net-income (0.93) despite slightly negative FCF growth (-3.41%).

Income Statement

COG Financial Services Limited has shown a mixed performance in its income statement. The company experienced a significant decline in revenue growth rate by 28.24% in the latest period, which is a concern. However, the gross profit margin improved to 77.07%, indicating better cost management. The net profit margin also increased to 5.11%, suggesting improved profitability. Despite these improvements, the declining revenue growth rate poses a risk to future profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 2.47, indicating significant leverage, which could pose financial risks. The equity ratio is relatively low, suggesting limited equity financing. However, the company has managed to maintain a stable return on equity, which reflects its ability to generate profits from shareholders' investments. Overall, the high leverage is a concern, but the company has shown resilience in maintaining profitability.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement indicates a slight decline in free cash flow growth by 3.41%, which is a concern. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.16, showing that the company generates sufficient cash from operations relative to its net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 0.93, indicating effective cash management. Despite the decline in free cash flow growth, the company maintains healthy cash flow ratios.

Breakdown	TTM	Jun 2025	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	313.25M	367.73M	362.35M	366.01M	320.77M	267.77M
Gross Profit	195.55M	283.43M	169.20M	132.47M	105.39M	92.26M
EBITDA	80.56M	75.16M	74.28M	62.41M	53.25M	48.32M
Net Income	20.19M	18.77M	12.85M	8.05M	19.68M	-26.38M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	738.00M	694.80M	687.12M	593.00M	518.22M	476.69M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	183.39M	149.25M	125.68M	101.80M	76.11M	94.51M
Total Debt	388.27M	375.98M	376.75M	283.73M	243.27M	225.94M
Total Liabilities	536.47M	488.30M	483.49M	378.53M	310.61M	287.03M
Stockholders Equity	151.40M	152.08M	151.69M	163.92M	170.95M	152.34M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	55.80M	45.92M	35.66M	28.55M	205.73M	187.95M
Operating Cash Flow	56.95M	49.30M	46.36M	31.79M	208.19M	190.85M
Investing Cash Flow	17.24M	2.66M	-87.16M	-19.53M	-201.93M	-75.11M
Financing Cash Flow	-25.99M	-28.39M	64.69M	30.12M	-24.67M	-55.92M

COG Financial Services Limited Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1.54
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:COG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.54 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.68, below the 50-day MA of 1.87, and below the 200-day MA of 1.88, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.09 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.69 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.95 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:COG.

COG Financial Services Limited Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
OFX	66 Neutral	AU$143.66M	8.86	9.31%	―	-5.73%	-36.36%
NWL	64 Neutral	AU$6.10B	111.22	67.81%	1.45%	28.29%	39.39%
COG	54 Neutral	AU$325.20M	15.54	12.36%	2.86%	-26.30%	40.12%
PPS	52 Neutral	AU$365.60M	20.79	12.27%	2.81%	24.56%	59.32%
RZI	48 Neutral	AU$63.76M	14.51	-0.15%	―	5.03%	52.31%
FNX	46 Neutral	AU$11.21M	-2.15	-34.88%	―	43.00%	-6078.57%

COG Financial Services Limited Corporate Events

COG Financial Services lifts revenue and earnings in 1H 2026

COG Financial Services Limited reported underlying revenue of $196.9 million for the first half of 2026, an 8% increase on the prior corresponding period, excluding interest income. The company also delivered underlying EBITDA attributable to shareholders of $22.3 million, up 14%, and earnings per share of 6.61 cents, a 7% rise, signalling continued earnings growth and operational momentum for investors.

These results indicate that COG is expanding both its top line and profitability ahead of the prior period, suggesting improved efficiency and stronger performance across its business lines. The uplift in key financial indicators reinforces the company’s capacity to generate shareholder value and may bolster its standing in the financial services market as it heads into the second half of the financial year.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:COG) stock is a Hold with a A$1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on COG Financial Services Limited stock, see the AU:COG Stock Forecast page.

COG Financial Services Declares Interim Dividend and Suspends DRP

COG Financial Services Limited has declared an interim dividend of A$0.035 per ordinary fully paid share for the six-month period ending 31 December 2025. The dividend will trade ex on 10 March 2026, with a record date of 11 March 2026 and payment scheduled for 15 April 2026, while the company has suspended its Dividend Reinvestment Plan for this interim payout, affecting how shareholders can receive their returns.

The suspension of the Dividend Reinvestment Plan means investors will receive the full interim dividend in cash rather than having the option to reinvest it into additional COG shares. This decision may influence shareholder cash flows and portfolio strategies in the near term, as well as signal a focus on direct cash distributions during this reporting period.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:COG) stock is a Hold with a A$1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on COG Financial Services Limited stock, see the AU:COG Stock Forecast page.

COG Financial Services lifts profit and dividends despite weaker net tangible assets

COG Financial Services reported an 8.6% rise in revenue from continuing operations to $198.5 million for the half year ended 31 December 2025, with net profit from continuing operations up 9.5% to $14.9 million and profit attributable to members increasing 16.7%. Earnings per share climbed to 4.80 cents, yet net tangible assets turned more negative, reflecting higher intangible assets, while the board maintained a fully franked dividend stream, including an interim FY26 dividend of 3.5 cents, underscoring ongoing shareholder returns despite balance sheet pressures.

Dividends paid or declared over the period included a reduced final FY25 dividend of 3.0 cents compared with 4.4 cents a year earlier, alongside interim and final FY25 payouts also set at 3.0 cents per share. The scheduled increase to a 3.5 cent fully franked interim dividend for FY26 indicates management’s confidence in earnings resilience, even as rising intangibles weigh on reported net tangible asset per share metrics and may prompt closer scrutiny from investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:COG) stock is a Hold with a A$1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on COG Financial Services Limited stock, see the AU:COG Stock Forecast page.