Bapcor Ltd (BAP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: €1.07B
• Dividend Yield: 4.27%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.16M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 38.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.35
• Revenue Growth: -3.00%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: AU
• Employees: 5,400
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Specialty Retail
• EPS (TTM): 0.10
• Shares Outstanding: 339,412,500
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,050,439
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,158,295
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: €4.01
• Price Target Upside: 26.79% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8

• Rating: 45 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$3.50 ▲(10.76% Upside)

The overall stock score is driven by weak financial performance, negative technical indicators, and a concerning valuation due to profitability challenges. The lack of earnings call data and significant corporate events limits the scope of analysis, emphasizing the need for operational improvements.

Bapcor Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Bapcor Ltd (BAP) is a leading provider of automotive aftermarket parts, accessories, equipment, and services in the Asia-Pacific region. The company operates across multiple sectors including trade, retail, and specialist wholesale, offering a comprehensive range of products to both professional workshops and retail customers. Bapcor's core businesses include the distribution of automotive replacement parts, tools, and equipment, as well as providing automotive workshop equipment and service solutions.

How the Company Makes Money

Bapcor Ltd generates revenue through a diverse range of business segments. The company's primary revenue streams include the trade segment, which involves supplying automotive parts and accessories to workshops and mechanics, and the retail segment, which markets directly to consumers through various retail brands. Additionally, Bapcor benefits from its specialist wholesale segment, which focuses on niche markets such as heavy-duty trucks and electrical components. The company leverages strategic partnerships with suppliers and maintains a robust supply chain to ensure the availability of a wide product range, contributing significantly to its earnings. Bapcor's extensive distribution network and brand portfolio enable it to capture various market segments and drive revenue growth across the automotive aftermarket industry.

Bapcor Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Bapcor Ltd faces significant challenges with profitability, as indicated by a decrease in gross profit margin and a negative net income. The balance sheet is moderately leveraged but stable, while cash flow analysis shows a concerning drop in free cash flow. Overall, the company needs to address operational efficiency to improve financial stability.

Income Statement

The income statement reflects a decrease in gross profit margin from 19.8% in 2023 to 16.8% in 2024, alongside negative net income, significantly impacting profitability. The revenue growth rate is modest at 0.8% from 2023 to 2024, indicating stagnation. The EBIT margin has dropped to 5.5% from 8.6% in the previous year, and the EBITDA margin is negative, reflecting operational challenges. Overall, the financial health in terms of profitability is concerning.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.78 in 2024, indicating moderate leverage. Return on equity (ROE) is negative due to the net loss, which is a red flag. The equity ratio stands at 46.9%, reflecting a stable equity position relative to assets. Despite the net income challenges, the company maintains a reasonable balance between debt and equity.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a significant decline in free cash flow from 2023 to 2024, dropping by 60.2%, which raises concerns about cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, which is problematic. However, free cash flow remains positive, indicating some capacity to manage operational needs despite profitability issues.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.04B	2.02B	1.84B	1.76B	1.46B
Gross Profit	923.60M	400.40M	377.77M	353.93M	278.66M
EBITDA	-28.49M	272.06M	285.63M	271.85M	211.19M
Net Income	-158.31M	106.45M	125.76M	118.77M	79.17M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.90B	2.21B	2.09B	1.87B	1.75B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	71.59M	78.63M	80.21M	39.60M	126.30M
Total Debt	694.16M	642.42M	599.71M	430.56M	410.88M
Total Liabilities	1.01B	1.08B	996.18M	826.91M	767.87M
Stockholders Equity	893.51M	1.12B	1.09B	1.04B	980.25M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	68.54M	172.38M	47.42M	80.82M	161.71M
Operating Cash Flow	125.80M	213.73M	104.82M	135.86M	200.25M
Investing Cash Flow	-57.62M	-59.01M	-64.50M	-70.59M	-109.82M
Financing Cash Flow	-76.26M	-157.22M	771.00K	-150.84M	-11.95M

Bapcor Ltd Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 3.16
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:BAP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.16 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.38, below the 50-day MA of 3.73, and below the 200-day MA of 4.52, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.19 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 20.66 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.85 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:BAP.

Bapcor Ltd Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SUL	76 Outperform	AU$3.74B	16.87	16.79%	6.94%	4.83%	-7.62%
JBH	75 Outperform	AU$12.77B	27.62	28.60%	2.10%	10.03%	5.38%
BLX	72 Outperform	AU$713.25M	24.09	―	2.57%	1.89%	-3.30%
TPW	65 Neutral	AU$2.79B	243.49	―	―	20.66%	543.24%
NCK	64 Neutral	AU$2.00B	34.57	21.63%	2.70%	5.79%	-31.70%
BAP	45 Neutral	€1.07B	38.12	3.40%	4.27%	-3.00%	―
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%

Bapcor Ltd Corporate Events

Bapcor Limited Announces Director Departure

Bapcor Limited has announced the cessation of James Scott Charles Todd as a director, effective July 23, 2025. This change in the board of directors may impact the company’s governance and strategic direction, as Todd held significant interests through the Tamkin Trust and the Tamkin Superannuation Fund, which collectively own 35,000 shares.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:BAP) stock is a Hold with a A$5.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bapcor Ltd stock, see the AU:BAP Stock Forecast page.

Bapcor Limited Announces Director Departure

Bapcor Limited has announced the cessation of Mark Bernhard as a director, effective from July 23, 2025. Bernhard held 37,500 fully-paid ordinary shares in the company. This change in directorship may impact the company’s governance and strategic direction, although no immediate implications for stakeholders have been detailed.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:BAP) stock is a Hold with a A$5.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bapcor Ltd stock, see the AU:BAP Stock Forecast page.

Bapcor Ltd Reports FY25 Trading Update and Strategic Changes

Bapcor Ltd has announced a trading update for the second half of FY25, revealing a pro-forma net profit after tax of $81-82 million and a statutory net profit after tax of $31-34 million. The company’s performance was impacted by weaker sales, particularly in May and June, and significant disruptions in its Specialist Wholesale segment due to consolidation activities. Despite these challenges, Bapcor has made strategic investments in IT systems and marketing, aiming for future growth. The company has also conducted a comprehensive review of its balance sheet, identifying significant non-cash items that affected its statutory profit. With a refreshed leadership team and strategy, Bapcor is focused on simplifying operations and achieving sustainable growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:BAP) stock is a Hold with a A$5.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bapcor Ltd stock, see the AU:BAP Stock Forecast page.

Bapcor Ltd Sees Increased Stake by Host-Plus Pty Limited

Bapcor Limited has announced a change in the interests of a substantial holder, Host-Plus Pty Limited, which has increased its voting power from 5.68% to 6.92%. This change reflects a significant shift in the ownership structure, potentially impacting the company’s governance and stakeholder dynamics.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:BAP) stock is a Hold with a A$5.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bapcor Ltd stock, see the AU:BAP Stock Forecast page.

Bapcor Ltd Announces Cessation of Performance Rights

Bapcor Ltd has announced the cessation of 176,830 performance rights, as the conditions for these securities were not met or became incapable of being satisfied. This cessation may impact the company’s capital structure and could have implications for stakeholders, particularly in terms of employee incentives and future financial planning.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:BAP) stock is a Hold with a A$5.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bapcor Ltd stock, see the AU:BAP Stock Forecast page.

Bapcor Ltd Announces Cessation of Performance Rights

Bapcor Ltd has announced the cessation of 369,288 performance rights, as the conditions for these securities were not met or became incapable of being satisfied as of June 30, 2025. This cessation may impact Bapcor’s capital structure and could have implications for stakeholders, particularly in terms of performance-based incentives and the company’s operational strategies moving forward.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:BAP) stock is a Hold with a A$5.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Bapcor Ltd stock, see the AU:BAP Stock Forecast page.

Bapcor Limited’s Strategic Presentation at Macquarie Conference

Bapcor Limited announced that its Executive Chair and CEO, Angus McKay, will present at the Macquarie Australia Conference. This presentation is significant as it offers insights into Bapcor’s current strategies and future plans, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder interests.

Bapcor Appoints Kim Kerr as New CFO

Bapcor Limited has appointed Kim Kerr as its new Chief Financial Officer, effective 12 May 2025. Kim brings extensive experience from her previous role as CFO at Orica Ltd and will be instrumental in implementing Bapcor’s recently announced business strategy. Her appointment follows the resignation of former CFO George Saoud, who will assist in the transition.