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Bapcor Ltd (AU:BAP)
ASX:BAP

Bapcor Ltd (BAP) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:BAP

Bapcor Ltd

(Sydney:BAP)

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Neutral 54 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
AU$2.00
▲(14.94% Upside)
Bapcor Ltd's overall stock score reflects significant challenges in financial performance and technical analysis. The company's declining revenue and profit margins, along with bearish technical indicators, weigh heavily on the score. However, the attractive dividend yield provides some support, offering potential income for investors.
Positive Factors
Business Model Strength
Bapcor's diversified business model across trade, retail, and wholesale segments provides resilience against market fluctuations and supports stable revenue streams.
Economies of Scale
Economies of scale enable Bapcor to reduce costs and enhance competitiveness, supporting long-term profitability and market position.
Debt Management
Effective debt management ensures financial stability and flexibility, allowing Bapcor to invest in growth opportunities without excessive risk.
Negative Factors
Declining Revenue
Negative revenue growth indicates potential market share loss or operational inefficiencies, which could impact long-term business sustainability.
Profit Margin Pressure
Low profit margins suggest difficulties in cost management or pricing power, potentially affecting future profitability and competitiveness.
Cash Flow Constraints
Reduced cash flow growth limits Bapcor's ability to fund new projects or service debt, posing risks to long-term financial health and expansion plans.

Bapcor Ltd (BAP) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Bapcor Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionBapcor Ltd (BAP) is a leading automotive aftermarket specialist in Australia and New Zealand, focusing on the supply and distribution of automotive parts, accessories, and services. The company operates through several key segments, including trade, retail, and wholesale, catering to both professional mechanics and DIY consumers. Bapcor's extensive portfolio includes well-known brands and an extensive network of stores and distribution centers, enabling it to provide a comprehensive range of products from vehicle parts to tools and equipment.
How the Company Makes MoneyBapcor generates revenue primarily through the sale of automotive parts and accessories across its various business segments. The trade segment, which serves professional mechanics and workshops, represents a significant portion of its revenue, as these customers typically make bulk purchases of high-margin products. The retail segment, which targets individual consumers, contributes through direct sales in physical stores and online platforms. Bapcor also earns revenue from its wholesale operations by supplying parts to other retailers and workshops. Key revenue streams include sales from branded products, private label items, and exclusive partnerships with major automotive manufacturers. Additionally, Bapcor benefits from economies of scale, a strong brand presence, and a growing consumer preference for vehicle maintenance and repair, all of which support its earnings growth.

Bapcor Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Bapcor Ltd faces challenges in maintaining profitability and growth. While the company has managed its debt levels effectively, declining revenue and profit margins, along with cash flow constraints, pose risks. Strategic improvements in operational efficiency and revenue generation are essential for future stability and growth.
Income Statement
55
Neutral
Bapcor Ltd's income statement shows a mixed performance. The gross profit margin is stable, indicating consistent cost management. However, the net profit margin is low, reflecting challenges in converting revenue into profit. Revenue growth has been negative recently, suggesting potential market or operational challenges. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have also declined, indicating pressure on operating efficiency.
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
The balance sheet reflects moderate financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio is reasonable, suggesting manageable leverage levels. However, the return on equity has decreased significantly, indicating reduced profitability for shareholders. The equity ratio is stable, showing a balanced asset structure.
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
Cash flow analysis reveals concerns with declining free cash flow growth, which may impact future investments or debt repayments. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is moderate, indicating some efficiency in cash generation. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio has decreased, highlighting potential cash flow constraints.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.98B1.98B2.04B2.02B1.84B1.76B
Gross Profit895.23M895.23M923.60M400.40M377.77M353.93M
EBITDA116.68M116.68M-28.49M272.06M285.63M271.85M
Net Income28.14M28.14M-158.31M106.45M125.76M118.77M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.83B1.83B1.90B2.21B2.09B1.87B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments58.58M58.58M71.59M78.63M80.21M39.60M
Total Debt642.21M642.21M694.16M642.42M599.71M489.91M
Total Liabilities971.27M971.27M1.01B1.08B996.18M826.91M
Stockholders Equity854.08M854.08M893.51M1.12B1.09B1.04B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow98.47M98.47M68.54M172.38M47.42M80.82M
Operating Cash Flow133.63M133.63M125.80M213.73M104.82M135.86M
Investing Cash Flow-50.68M-50.68M-57.62M-59.01M-64.50M-70.59M
Financing Cash Flow-96.28M-96.28M-76.26M-157.22M771.00K-150.84M

Bapcor Ltd Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price1.74
Price Trends
50DMA
2.34
Negative
100DMA
2.95
Negative
200DMA
3.88
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.14
Negative
RSI
48.97
Neutral
STOCH
53.54
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:BAP, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 1.74 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.09, below the 50-day MA of 2.34, and below the 200-day MA of 3.88, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.14 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.97 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 53.54 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AU:BAP.

Bapcor Ltd Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
71
Outperform
AU$3.59B16.1816.46%7.23%4.83%-7.62%
61
Neutral
$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%
59
Neutral
AU$1.81B31.3421.99%2.98%5.79%-31.70%
58
Neutral
AU$10.38B22.4529.12%2.59%10.03%5.38%
55
Neutral
AU$614.64M20.7616.86%2.99%1.89%-3.30%
54
Neutral
AU$712.77M25.333.40%6.43%-3.00%
54
Neutral
AU$1.63B142.448.81%20.66%543.24%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:BAP
Bapcor Ltd
2.10
-2.35
-52.85%
AU:TPW
Temple & Webster Group Ltd
13.56
0.24
1.80%
AU:NCK
Nick Scali Limited
21.16
6.62
45.53%
AU:JBH
JB Hi-Fi Limited
94.98
2.98
3.24%
AU:SUL
Super Retail Group Limited
15.89
1.27
8.69%
AU:BLX
Beacon Lighting Group Ltd
2.68
-0.20
-6.94%

Bapcor Ltd Corporate Events

Bapcor Announces Resignation of Non-Executive Director Mark Powell
Dec 1, 2025

Bapcor Limited announced the resignation of Mark Powell as a Non-Executive Director, effective December 5, 2025. Powell, who served as Lead Independent Director, played a crucial role during a challenging period for the company. His departure comes as Bapcor transitions its Board and governance structures, with plans to recruit a new Non-Executive Director in the new year. The company is seen as well-positioned for long-term sustainable growth, addressing long-standing issues with transparency.

Bapcor Announces Departure of Director Angus McKay and Forfeiture of Securities
Nov 26, 2025

Bapcor Limited announced that Angus Robert McKay has ceased to be a director as of November 24, 2025. As part of his departure, Mr. McKay agreed to forfeit certain securities, including fully-paid ordinary shares and performance rights, for nil consideration. This decision impacts Mr. McKay’s holdings in the company, leaving him with 14,500 shares and 1,836,482 performance rights. The forfeiture of these securities may influence Bapcor’s governance and stakeholder dynamics.

Bapcor Limited Announces Cessation of Securities
Nov 26, 2025

Bapcor Limited has announced the cessation of 144,038 performance rights, which were canceled by mutual agreement between the company and the holder. This move reflects a strategic decision in managing the company’s issued capital, potentially impacting its financial structuring and shareholder relations.

Bapcor Ltd Announces Board Reshuffle to Drive Strategic Growth
Nov 23, 2025

Bapcor Ltd has announced significant changes to its Board with Lachlan Edwards appointed as the Independent Non-Executive Chair and Kate Spargo taking on the new role of Deputy Chair. Angus McKay will step down from the Board to focus on his role as CEO, aiming to drive the company’s turnaround strategy. These changes are part of a broader effort to enhance governance structures and support management in executing Bapcor’s five-year strategy, which is expected to improve business performance and deliver sustainable growth.

Bapcor Limited Announces Change in Substantial Holder Status
Nov 18, 2025

Bapcor Limited, a company listed on the Australian Securities Exchange, has announced a change in its substantial holders. As of November 14, 2025, a previously substantial holder has ceased to hold a significant interest in the company. This change could potentially impact the company’s stock dynamics and influence its market perception, although specific implications for stakeholders were not detailed in the announcement.

Bapcor Director Increases Stake with Performance Rights Acquisition
Nov 13, 2025

Bapcor Limited announced a change in the director’s interest, specifically for Angus Robert McKay, who acquired 1,345,990 Performance Rights under the company’s Long Term Incentive Plan (LTIP). This acquisition follows shareholder approval at the company’s 2025 Annual General Meeting, increasing McKay’s total Performance Rights to 2,432,114. This change in director’s interest reflects Bapcor’s ongoing commitment to aligning executive incentives with company performance, potentially impacting stakeholder perceptions and the company’s strategic direction.

Bapcor Ltd Issues Performance Rights Under Employee Incentive Scheme
Nov 13, 2025

Bapcor Ltd has announced the issuance of 1,345,990 performance rights as part of an employee incentive scheme, which are not intended to be quoted on the ASX. This move is likely aimed at aligning employee interests with company performance, potentially enhancing motivation and retention, and could impact the company’s operational dynamics and stakeholder engagement.

Bapcor Limited Announces Director’s Interest Change
Oct 31, 2025

Bapcor Limited has announced a change in the director’s interest notice, involving Patria Mann. The change involves the acquisition of 40,000 fully paid ordinary shares by the P G Harris Super Fund, where Ms. Mann is a trustee and beneficiary. This transaction was conducted through on-market purchases between October 27 and 29, 2025, at a price range of $2.570 to $2.620 per share. The acquisition reflects an increase in Ms. Mann’s indirect interest in the company, potentially impacting her influence within the company and signaling confidence in Bapcor’s market position.

Bapcor Director Increases Shareholding
Oct 31, 2025

Bapcor Limited has announced a change in the director’s interest notice, specifically involving Kate Spargo. Ms. Spargo, through the Spargo Super Fund, has increased her indirect interest by acquiring 25,000 additional fully paid ordinary shares, bringing her total to 90,000 shares. This transaction was completed through an on-market purchase at a price of $2.5799 per share.

Bapcor Director Increases Shareholding, Signaling Confidence
Oct 28, 2025

Bapcor Limited announced a change in the director’s interest, with Lachlan Edwards acquiring 9,600 shares, increasing his total to 23,510 shares held by the Edwards Family Super Fund. This on-market purchase reflects a strategic move by the director, potentially indicating confidence in the company’s future performance and stability, which could have implications for stakeholders and market perception.

Bapcor Director Acquires Shares, Signaling Strategic Interest
Oct 28, 2025

Bapcor Limited announced a change in the director’s interest, with Annette Carey acquiring 12,000 fully paid ordinary shares through Sandose Pty Ltd, a company where she is a director and beneficiary. This transaction, executed on-market, reflects a strategic move that may influence stakeholder perceptions and the company’s market positioning.

Bapcor Director Increases Shareholding in Strategic Move
Oct 28, 2025

Bapcor Limited announced a change in the director’s interest, with Jacqueline Korhonen, a director of the company, acquiring an additional 7,100 shares through Monsour Enterprises Pty Ltd, where she is the sole director and shareholder. This purchase increases her total holdings to 16,600 shares, reflecting a vote of confidence in the company’s prospects and potentially impacting investor perceptions positively.

Bapcor Ltd Announces Strong Support in 2025 AGM Resolutions
Oct 23, 2025

Bapcor Limited announced the results of its 2025 Annual General Meeting, where all resolutions were carried with significant majorities. The outcomes reflect strong shareholder support for the company’s current leadership and strategic direction, indicating stability and confidence in Bapcor’s future operations and governance.

Bapcor’s Strategic Turnaround: Simplifying for Growth
Oct 22, 2025

Bapcor Limited held its 2025 Annual General Meeting, where the Executive Chair and CEO addressed the company’s current challenges and strategic initiatives. Despite a strong market position, Bapcor is undergoing a complex turnaround to simplify operations, improve customer focus, and correct historic operational issues. Key actions include consolidating operations, technology upgrades, and restructuring leadership, aiming to create a more sustainable and growth-oriented company.

Yarra Capital Acquires Substantial Stake in Bapcor Limited
Oct 20, 2025

Yarra Capital Management Limited and its associated entities have become substantial holders in Bapcor Limited, acquiring a 5.27% voting power through the purchase of ordinary fully paid shares. This acquisition, involving a significant investment of $38,947,446 for 10,848,317 shares, indicates a strategic interest in Bapcor, potentially influencing its market operations and stakeholder dynamics.

Bapcor Ltd Announces Strategic Initiatives Amid Challenging Market Conditions
Oct 20, 2025

Bapcor Ltd has announced a series of strategic initiatives aimed at improving its operational efficiency and market competitiveness in FY26. These include pricing and ranging reviews, promotional activities, and investments in brand marketing and technology. Despite these efforts, the company faced a challenging first quarter with a decline in sales revenue and market share, particularly in the Trade and Retail segments. The company is also addressing operational inefficiencies in its tools and equipment business, which have impacted earnings. Cost-saving measures are expected to generate significant savings, although inflationary pressures continue to offset these benefits. Bapcor’s guidance for 1H26 anticipates a modest statutory net profit, with underlying profit impacted by one-off restructuring costs and inventory adjustments.

Bapcor Limited Initiates Trading Halt Pending Key Announcement
Oct 16, 2025

Bapcor Limited, a company listed on the Australian Securities Exchange, has requested a trading halt on its securities pending the release of a trading update and earnings guidance for the current financial period. This halt is expected to remain until the company makes an announcement or until normal trading resumes on 21 October 2025. The trading halt indicates that Bapcor is preparing to release significant information that could impact its stock performance and stakeholder interests.

Bapcor Proposes FY26 Performance Rights for CEO
Oct 9, 2025

Bapcor Limited has announced a resolution for the approval of FY26 Performance Rights to be granted to the Executive Chair & CEO under its Long-Term Incentive Plan (LTIP). The number of performance rights, totaling 1,345,990, is based on the company’s share value following the release of FY25 financial results. This move is part of Bapcor’s strategy to align executive compensation with company performance, potentially impacting shareholder value and executive motivation.

Bapcor Ltd Appoints New Director with Strategic Interests
Oct 1, 2025

Bapcor Ltd has announced the appointment of Lachlan Edwards as a director, effective from October 1, 2025. Mr. Edwards holds 13,910 fully paid ordinary shares through the Edwards Family Super Fund, indicating a vested interest in the company’s future. This appointment is part of Bapcor’s strategic efforts to strengthen its leadership team, potentially impacting its market positioning and stakeholder relations positively.

Bapcor Ltd Appoints New Director to Strengthen Leadership
Oct 1, 2025

Bapcor Ltd has announced the appointment of Patria Mann as a director, effective from 1 October 2025. This appointment is part of the company’s ongoing efforts to strengthen its leadership team, potentially impacting its strategic direction and operational effectiveness in the automotive aftermarket industry.

Bapcor Ltd’s 2025 Annual Report Highlights Sustainable Growth and ESG Commitment
Sep 24, 2025

Bapcor Ltd’s 2025 Annual Report outlines the company’s strategic focus on sustainable growth and customer-centric operations. The report highlights Bapcor’s acknowledgment of the Traditional Custodians of Country in Australia and its commitment to environmental, social, and governance (ESG) principles. The company’s operations and market positioning are reinforced by its dedication to respecting First Nations people and their connection to the land, which is integral to Bapcor’s operational footprint across Australia.

Bapcor Limited Releases 2025 Corporate Governance Statement
Sep 24, 2025

Bapcor Limited has released its corporate governance statement for the financial year ended June 30, 2025, which is available on their website. The statement confirms the company’s adherence to the ASX Corporate Governance Council’s principles and recommendations, highlighting Bapcor’s commitment to transparency and accountability in its operations. This announcement reinforces Bapcor’s industry positioning as a company dedicated to maintaining high governance standards, potentially impacting stakeholder confidence positively.

Bapcor Limited Strengthens Board with New Non-Executive Directors
Sep 18, 2025

Bapcor Limited has announced the appointment of two new Non-Executive Directors, Mr. Lachlan Edwards and Ms. Patria Mann, effective from October 1, 2025. These appointments are part of a strategic board refresh aimed at supporting the company’s growth and governance. Patria Mann brings extensive experience in financial services and governance, while Lachlan Edwards offers a strong background in corporate advisory and capital markets. Their expertise is expected to bolster Bapcor’s strategic initiatives and drive sustainable value for shareholders.

Bapcor Limited Appoints Annette Carey as Non-Executive Director
Sep 12, 2025

Bapcor Limited has announced the appointment of Ms. Annette Carey as a Non-Executive Director, effective 1 October 2025. Annette Carey brings over 35 years of experience in logistics, supply chain, and security sectors, and her appointment marks the beginning of a board refresh at Bapcor, which aims to leverage her strategic growth expertise to advance its strategic goals.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 19, 2025