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Bapcor Ltd
(Sydney:BAP)
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Select Model
Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
AU$0.44
â–¼(-74.48% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/15/26
The score is held back primarily by weakening financial performance (margin pressure, negative revenue growth, and softer free cash flow) and a clearly bearish technical setup (below major moving averages with negative MACD). A very high dividend yield provides some support, but valuation remains mixed due to the negative P/E.
Positive Factors
Non-discretionary aftermarket demand and multi-channel distribution
Recurring, non-discretionary demand for vehicle servicing and a multi-channel model (trade stores, retail outlets, wholesale distribution) support stable long-term revenue. Diverse channels and trade relationships reduce customer concentration risk and preserve scale advantages across cycles.
Negative Factors
Negative revenue growth trend
Sustained negative revenue growth undermines the benefits of scale in distribution and retail. Falling sales compress absolute gross profit, limit operating leverage, and make it harder to fund reinvestment or margin-restoring initiatives, raising medium-term execution risk.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Non-discretionary aftermarket demand and multi-channel distribution
Recurring, non-discretionary demand for vehicle servicing and a multi-channel model (trade stores, retail outlets, wholesale distribution) support stable long-term revenue. Diverse channels and trade relationships reduce customer concentration risk and preserve scale advantages across cycles.
Read all positive factors
Bapcor Ltd (BAP) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$296.01M
Dividend Yield16.1%
Average Volume (3M)1.16M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.93
Revenue Growth-4.69%
EPS Growth28.63%
CountryAU
Employees5,200
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.35
Shares Outstanding672,753,050
10 Day Avg. Volume1,054,886
30 Day Avg. Volume1,158,987
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.51
Price to Book (P/B)2.01
Price to Sales (P/S)0.87
P/FCF Ratio17.40
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$0.44Price Target Upside-74.78% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)0.03
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$1.95B
Bapcor Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Bapcor Limited, founded in 1971 in Melbourne, Australia, and previously known as Burson Group Limited until its rebranding in July 2016, is a prominent supplier of automotive components, accessories, equipment, and associated services. The company...
How the Company Makes Money
Bapcor makes money primarily by selling automotive aftermarket products and related services through a multi-channel distribution model. Its core revenue stream is the sale of vehicle replacement parts, accessories, fluids, batteries, tools, and w...
Bapcor Ltd Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
55
Neutral
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.94B | 1.98B | 2.04B | 2.02B | 1.84B | 1.76B |
| Gross Profit | 562.26M | 895.23M | 923.60M | 400.40M | 377.77M | 353.93M |
| EBITDA | 91.67M | 116.68M | -28.49M | 272.06M | 285.63M | 271.85M |
| Net Income | -117.49M | 28.14M | -158.31M | 106.45M | 125.76M | 118.77M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.68B | 1.83B | 1.90B | 2.21B | 2.09B | 1.87B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 39.29M | 58.58M | 71.59M | 78.63M | 80.21M | 39.60M |
| Total Debt | 806.04M | 642.21M | 694.16M | 642.42M | 599.71M | 489.91M |
| Total Liabilities | 976.27M | 971.27M | 1.01B | 1.08B | 996.18M | 826.91M |
| Stockholders Equity | 705.07M | 854.08M | 893.51M | 1.12B | 1.09B | 1.04B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 45.68M | 98.47M | 68.54M | 172.38M | 47.42M | 80.82M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 68.89M | 133.63M | 125.80M | 213.73M | 104.82M | 135.86M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -46.02M | -50.68M | -57.62M | -59.01M | -64.50M | -70.59M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -72.08M | -96.28M | -76.26M | -157.22M | 771.00K | -150.84M |
Bapcor Ltd Technical Analysis
Positive
1.74
Price Trends
0.43
Positive
0.49
Negative
0.97
Negative
Market Momentum
<0.01
Negative
56.41
Neutral
79.08
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:BAP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.74 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.42, above the 50-day MA of 0.43, and above the 200-day MA of 0.97, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.08 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:BAP.
Bapcor Ltd Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | AU$3.01B | 15.30 | 15.13% | 7.83% | 4.75% | -13.42% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
61 Neutral | AU$404.77M | -10.49 | -69.14% | 3.65% | 4.41% | -2505.17% | |
52 Neutral | AU$296.01M | -1.27 | -15.07% | 6.62% | -4.69% | 28.63% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
AU:BAP
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0.45
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Bapcor Ltd Corporate Events
MUFG and First Sentier cease to be substantial shareholders in Bapcor
Jul 13, 2026
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group and its asset management affiliates, including First Sentier Investors entities, have notified Bapcor Ltd that they have ceased to be substantial shareholders in the automotive parts group as of 9 July 2026. The chan...
Bapcor Appoints Andrew Fraser to Board With No Initial Shareholding
Jul 8, 2026
Bapcor Limited has notified the ASX of the appointment of Andrew Fraser as a director, effective 1 July 2026, in line with its governance obligations as a listed automotive aftermarket group. The filing confirms that Fraser holds no relevant inter...
Bapcor Performance Rights Lapse After Unmet Conditions
Jul 2, 2026
Bapcor Ltd disclosed that 423,076 performance rights, classified under ASX code BAPAI, have lapsed as of 30 June 2026 because the conditions attached to these rights were not met or can no longer be satisfied.The cessation of these conditional sec...
JPMorgan Ceases Substantial Holding in Automotive Group Bapcor
Jul 2, 2026
JPMorgan Chase Co and its affiliated entities have disclosed that they have ceased to be a substantial shareholder in Bapcor Ltd as of 30 June 2026, following a series of transactions including securities lending, purchases and sales conducted in...
State Street exits substantial shareholder position in Bapcor
Jun 22, 2026
State Street Corporation, through its subsidiaries including State Street Bank and Trust Company and State Street Global Advisors, Australia, has lodged a notice that it has ceased to be a substantial shareholder in Bapcor Ltd. The change reflects...
Bapcor Issues 661,931 Unquoted Performance Rights Under Employee Incentive Plan
Jun 17, 2026
Bapcor Limited has issued 661,931 new performance rights under its employee incentive scheme, with the securities designated as unquoted and not intended for listing on the ASX. The move underscores the company’s continued use of equity-base...
JPMorgan Exits Substantial Holder Position in Bapcor
Jun 16, 2026
JPMorgan Chase Co. and its affiliates have lodged a notice with Bapcor Ltd advising that they have ceased to be a substantial holder in the automotive parts group as of 12 June 2026. The change reflects adjustments in holdings and securities lend...
State Street Group Ceases to Be Substantial Holder in Bapcor
Jun 9, 2026
State Street Corporation and its subsidiaries, including State Street Bank and Trust Company, SSGA Funds Management and State Street Global Advisors Australia, have lodged a notice that they have ceased to be substantial shareholders in Bapcor Lim...
Bapcor Adds Andrew Fraser to Board to Support Turnaround and Growth
Jun 9, 2026
Bapcor Limited has appointed Andrew Fraser as an independent non-executive director, effective 1 July 2026, as the company continues its performance turnaround and pursuit of disciplined long-term growth. Fraser, who currently chairs Bank of Queen...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.