Want to see AU:NCK full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Nick Scali Limited
(Sydney:NCK)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
AU$16.50
▼(-22.02% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:02/14/26
The score is primarily supported by solid financial performance (strong revenue growth and margins) but is tempered by leverage risk and weaker profitability trend. Technicals are a major drag due to a pronounced downtrend and bearish momentum despite oversold signals. Valuation is mixed, with a relatively high P/E partly balanced by a moderate dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
An outsized 53.9% revenue increase reflects durable demand expansion and effective execution across showrooms and online channels. Sustained top-line growth enhances scale economics, improves supplier leverage and inventory turnover, and underpins longer-term margin and cash generation potential.
Negative Factors
Net Profit Margin Trend
Declining net profit margin, despite strong gross margins, implies rising operating expenses, markdowns or financing costs are compressing retained earnings. If persistent, this reduces return on invested capital, limits funding for growth initiatives and makes earnings more sensitive to revenue slowdowns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue Growth
An outsized 53.9% revenue increase reflects durable demand expansion and effective execution across showrooms and online channels. Sustained top-line growth enhances scale economics, improves supplier leverage and inventory turnover, and underpins longer-term margin and cash generation potential.
Read all positive factors
Nick Scali Limited (NCK) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$1.34B
Dividend Yield2.63%
Average Volume (3M)269.77K
Price to Earnings (P/E)19.3
Beta (1Y)1.39
Revenue Growth4.23%
EPS Growth-0.64%
CountryAU
Employees850
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.80
Shares Outstanding85,530,700
10 Day Avg. Volume282,624
30 Day Avg. Volume269,768
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.86
Price to Book (P/B)5.83
Price to Sales (P/S)3.14
P/FCF Ratio15.42
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$16.31Price Target Upside-22.94% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)0.88
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$547.47M
Nick Scali Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Nick Scali Limited, through its various entities, specializes in the procurement and sale of residential furniture and associated accessories, primarily catering to markets in Australia and New Zealand. Their diverse product portfolio includes liv...
How the Company Makes Money
Nick Scali makes money primarily by retailing furniture and homewares to consumers. Its core revenue stream is product sales made through company-operated showrooms and its e-commerce channel, where it earns a retail margin between the landed cost...
Nick Scali Limited Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
75
Positive
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 513.47M | 495.28M | 468.19M | 507.72M | 440.96M | 373.04M |
| Gross Profit | 190.58M | 314.62M | 306.80M | 322.41M | 268.98M | 236.75M |
| EBITDA | 173.00M | 157.49M | 176.95M | 199.52M | 158.78M | 159.04M |
| Net Income | 68.62M | 57.68M | 80.61M | 101.08M | 74.92M | 84.24M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 720.35M | 705.81M | 704.88M | 607.64M | 616.39M | 489.25M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 91.68M | 100.99M | 111.33M | 89.25M | 74.62M | 106.89M |
| Total Debt | 546.40M | 316.14M | 320.37M | 318.17M | 329.60M | 226.98M |
| Total Liabilities | 442.35M | 439.13M | 447.10M | 427.73M | 475.47M | 375.22M |
| Stockholders Equity | 278.00M | 266.68M | 257.78M | 179.91M | 140.93M | 114.03M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 118.79M | 100.92M | 102.72M | 121.03M | 102.25M | 124.26M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 143.41M | 115.49M | 131.18M | 133.92M | 121.23M | 139.90M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -25.77M | 15.43M | -64.91M | -12.89M | -121.50M | -15.62M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -114.06M | -113.02M | -74.19M | -66.40M | -72.00M | -80.43M |
Nick Scali Limited Technical Analysis
Negative
21.16
Price Trends
15.03
Positive
15.56
Negative
19.17
Negative
Market Momentum
0.16
Positive
43.55
Neutral
36.53
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:NCK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 21.16 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.02, above the 50-day MA of 15.03, and above the 200-day MA of 19.17, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.16 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.55 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.53 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:NCK.
Nick Scali Limited Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | AU$47.32M | 9.69 | 13.53% | 9.03% | 4.03% | -14.92% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
61 Neutral | AU$1.34B | 19.31 | 25.20% | 2.63% | 4.23% | -0.64% | |
61 Neutral | AU$395.29M | -10.34 | -69.14% | 4.00% | 4.41% | -2505.17% | |
61 Neutral | AU$252.74M | 13.09 | 8.37% | 5.85% | 5.66% | -42.42% | |
60 Neutral | AU$395.62M | 13.96 | 15.11% | 2.86% | 1.86% | -5.28% | |
55 Neutral | AU$621.19M | 77.10 | 5.66% | ― | 18.85% | 20.89% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
AU:NCK
Nick Scali Limited
15.64
-2.49
-13.72%
AU:KGN
Kogan.com
4.24
0.36
9.36%
AU:TPW
Temple & Webster Group Ltd
5.28
-16.89
-76.18%
AU:ADH
Adairs Ltd.
1.44
-0.60
-29.38%
AU:DSK
Dusk Group Ltd.
0.77
-0.03
-3.63%
AU:BLX
Beacon Lighting Group Ltd
1.68
-1.86
-52.48%
Nick Scali Limited Corporate Events
Macquarie Group Ends Substantial Holding in Nick Scali
Jul 15, 2026
Macquarie Group Limited and its controlled entities have lodged a formal notice that they have ceased to be a substantial holder in Nick Scali Limited. The cessation of substantial holding status indicates that Macquarie’s aggregated voting ...
Nick Scali schedules FY26 results webcast for August
Jul 7, 2026
Nick Scali Limited will release its financial results for the year ended 30 June 2026 on Friday, 7 August 2026, and has scheduled a results teleconference and live webcast for the same day. The event will be hosted by Chief Executive Officer Antho...
State Street group exits substantial holding in Nick Scali
Jun 24, 2026
Nick Scali Limited has disclosed that entities within the State Street group, including State Street Global Advisors and related subsidiaries, have ceased to be substantial shareholders in the company as of 22 June 2026. The notice, lodged under A...
State Street Group Ceases to Be Substantial Holder in Nick Scali
Jun 19, 2026
State Street Corporation and several of its asset management subsidiaries have notified Nick Scali Limited that they have ceased to be substantial holders in the company as of 17 June 2026, under Australia’s Corporations Act disclosure rules...
State Street exits substantial holding in Nick Scali
Jun 9, 2026
State Street Corporation and its related State Street Global Advisors entities have lodged a notice that they have ceased to be substantial shareholders in Nick Scali Limited. The filing indicates that these entities, which previously held a signi...
Nick Scali Tightens Governance With Updated Securities Trading Policy
May 29, 2026
Nick Scali Limited has released an updated Securities Trading Policy, effective immediately, to guide its directors and employees on the proper purchase and sale of company securities under Australian law. The policy reinforces the prohibition on ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.