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Nick Scali Limited
(Sydney:NCK)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
AU$18.50
▲(22.92% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/10/26
The score is primarily supported by solid financial performance (strong profitability, 2026 revenue re-acceleration, and healthy free cash flow), partially offset by elevated leverage and some margin compression versus prior peak years. Technicals are moderately positive but tempered by near-overbought signals and trading below the 200-day average. Valuation is fair with a supportive dividend yield, but the P/E is not especially cheap.
Positive Factors
Strong Profitability
Consistently strong 2026 net and EBIT margins indicate durable product margin control and operational efficiency. These margins provide the company with ongoing ability to fund store operations, absorb cost shocks, and support returns to shareholders, strengthening long-term earnings resilience.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage
Material debt relative to equity constrains financial flexibility and increases interest and refinancing risk if trading weakens. Elevated leverage reduces the margin for error during downturns and limits the company's capacity to invest or return capital without prioritizing debt service.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong Profitability
Consistently strong 2026 net and EBIT margins indicate durable product margin control and operational efficiency. These margins provide the company with ongoing ability to fund store operations, absorb cost shocks, and support returns to shareholders, strengthening long-term earnings resilience.
Read all positive factors
Nick Scali Limited (NCK) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$1.41B
Dividend Yield4.45%
Average Volume (3M)269.77K
Price to Earnings (P/E)18.5
Beta (1Y)1.48
Revenue Growth4.33%
EPS Growth31.22%
CountryAU
Employees811
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustrySpecialty Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.89
Shares Outstanding85,530,700
10 Day Avg. Volume282,624
30 Day Avg. Volume269,768
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.63
Price to Book (P/B)4.99
Price to Sales (P/S)2.70
P/FCF Ratio10.84
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$17.15Price Target Upside13.96% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)0.87
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$531.97M
Nick Scali Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Nick Scali Limited, through its various entities, specializes in the procurement and sale of residential furniture and associated accessories, primarily catering to markets in Australia and New Zealand. Their diverse product portfolio includes liv...
How the Company Makes Money
Nick Scali makes money primarily by retailing furniture and homewares to consumers. Its core revenue stream is product sales made through its owned and operated physical showrooms, where customers browse displays, consult sales staff, and place or...
Nick Scali Limited Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
69
Positive
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 516.70M | 495.28M | 468.19M | 507.72M | 440.96M |
| Gross Profit | 194.07M | 314.62M | 306.80M | 322.41M | 268.98M |
| EBITDA | 177.08M | 157.49M | 176.95M | 199.52M | 158.78M |
| Net Income | 75.68M | 57.68M | 80.61M | 101.08M | 74.92M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 749.08M | 705.81M | 704.88M | 607.64M | 616.39M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 106.59M | 100.99M | 111.33M | 89.25M | 74.62M |
| Total Debt | 350.07M | 316.14M | 320.37M | 318.17M | 329.60M |
| Total Liabilities | 469.31M | 439.13M | 447.10M | 427.73M | 475.47M |
| Stockholders Equity | 279.77M | 266.68M | 257.78M | 179.91M | 140.93M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 128.73M | 100.92M | 102.72M | 121.03M | 102.25M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 150.72M | 115.49M | 131.18M | 133.92M | 121.23M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -22.99M | 15.43M | -64.91M | -12.89M | -121.50M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -120.90M | -113.02M | -74.19M | -66.40M | -72.00M |
Nick Scali Limited Technical Analysis
Neutral
15.05
Price Trends
15.95
Positive
15.41
Positive
18.52
Negative
Market Momentum
0.34
Negative
53.07
Neutral
38.55
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:NCK, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 15.05 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.19, below the 50-day MA of 15.95, and below the 200-day MA of 18.52, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.34 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.07 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 38.55 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AU:NCK.
Nick Scali Limited Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | AU$1.41B | 18.51 | 25.20% | 4.87% | 4.33% | 31.22% | |
62 Neutral | AU$44.21M | 9.17 | 13.53% | 8.20% | 4.03% | -14.92% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
61 Neutral | AU$433.21M | -11.23 | -69.14% | 3.65% | 4.41% | -2505.17% | |
61 Neutral | AU$258.10M | 13.37 | 8.37% | 5.85% | 5.66% | -42.42% | |
60 Neutral | AU$400.20M | 14.08 | 15.11% | 2.86% | 1.86% | -5.28% | |
55 Neutral | AU$604.88M | 76.66 | 5.66% | ― | 18.85% | 20.89% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
AU:NCK
Nick Scali Limited
16.47
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Nick Scali Limited Corporate Events
Nick Scali Declares Interim Dividend of 39 Cents per Share
Aug 6, 2026
Nick Scali Limited has declared an ordinary interim dividend of AUD 0.39 per share, relating to the six-month period ended 30 June 2026, to be paid on its fully paid ordinary shares. The dividend will trade ex-dividend on 30 September 2026, with a...
Nick Scali lifts FY26 profit and margins as UK arm turns profitable in second half
Aug 6, 2026
Nick Scali Limited reported a robust FY26 performance, with group net profit after tax rising 22% and revenue up 4% despite challenging retail conditions, underpinned by a 210 basis point improvement in gross margin. The board declared a fully fra...
Nick Scali lifts profit and dividends as earnings rebound
Aug 6, 2026
Nick Scali reported a 4.3% rise in revenue to $516.7 million for the year to 30 June 2026, while statutory and underlying profit after tax climbed to $75.7 million, up 31.2% and 22.1% respectively. Earnings per share increased to 88.5 cents, refle...
Macquarie Group Ends Substantial Holding in Nick Scali
Jul 15, 2026
Macquarie Group Limited and its controlled entities have lodged a formal notice that they have ceased to be a substantial holder in Nick Scali Limited. The cessation of substantial holding status indicates that Macquarie’s aggregated voting ...
Nick Scali schedules FY26 results webcast for August
Jul 7, 2026
Nick Scali Limited will release its financial results for the year ended 30 June 2026 on Friday, 7 August 2026, and has scheduled a results teleconference and live webcast for the same day. The event will be hosted by Chief Executive Officer Antho...
State Street group exits substantial holding in Nick Scali
Jun 24, 2026
Nick Scali Limited has disclosed that entities within the State Street group, including State Street Global Advisors and related subsidiaries, have ceased to be substantial shareholders in the company as of 22 June 2026. The notice, lodged under A...
State Street Group Ceases to Be Substantial Holder in Nick Scali
Jun 19, 2026
State Street Corporation and several of its asset management subsidiaries have notified Nick Scali Limited that they have ceased to be substantial holders in the company as of 17 June 2026, under Australia’s Corporations Act disclosure rules...
State Street exits substantial holding in Nick Scali
Jun 9, 2026
State Street Corporation and its related State Street Global Advisors entities have lodged a notice that they have ceased to be substantial shareholders in Nick Scali Limited. The filing indicates that these entities, which previously held a signi...
Nick Scali Tightens Governance With Updated Securities Trading Policy
May 29, 2026
Nick Scali Limited has released an updated Securities Trading Policy, effective immediately, to guide its directors and employees on the proper purchase and sale of company securities under Australian law. The policy reinforces the prohibition on ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.