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Nick Scali Limited (AU:NCK)
ASX:NCK
Australian Market

Nick Scali Limited (NCK) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:NCK

Nick Scali Limited

(Sydney:NCK)

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Neutral 59 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
AU$26.00
▲(22.87% Upside)
Nick Scali Limited's stock score is primarily influenced by strong financial performance, despite concerns about leverage and cash flow volatility. Technical indicators suggest a bearish trend, and the high P/E ratio raises valuation concerns. The absence of earnings call data and corporate events limits additional insights.
Positive Factors
Strong recent revenue growth
A 53.9% revenue jump indicates expanding customer demand and successful distribution across showrooms and e-commerce. Sustained top-line growth supports operating leverage, inventory turnover improvements and funds reinvestment in stores and product ranges over the next several quarters.
High gross profit margins
Consistently >60% gross margins reflect strong pricing power or sourcing advantages in furniture categories. This margin buffer helps absorb input cost inflation, supports durable EBITDA generation, and provides scope to invest in marketing, stores or product development.
Positive free cash flow generation
Material FCF growth and healthy operating cash conversion improve financial flexibility to fund capex, shareholder returns or debt reduction. Reliable cash generation underpins resilience through retail cycles and enables strategic reinvestment over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
A high debt-to-equity ratio constrains financial flexibility and raises refinancing and interest-rate exposure. In a cyclical, discretionary retail sector this leverage increases downside risk to earnings and investment capacity if consumer demand softens over the next several quarters.
Declining net profit margin
Falling net margins despite strong gross margins suggest rising operating costs, promotional pressure or higher interest costs. Sustained margin compression would erode returns on revenue and limit ability to convert sales growth into durable shareholder value.
Earnings volatility (EPS decline)
A roughly 31.7% EPS decline signals earnings volatility that may stem from margin swings, cost pressure or financing impacts. Persistent EPS weakness hampers retained earnings accumulation and limits consistent funding for growth or dividends across economic cycles.

Nick Scali Limited (NCK) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Nick Scali Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNick Scali Limited (NCK) is an Australian furniture retailer that specializes in the design, manufacture, and retail of high-quality furniture and home decor products. Founded in 1962, the company operates in the home furnishings sector, offering a wide range of products including sofas, dining tables, bedroom furniture, and accessories. Nick Scali has established a strong presence in the Australian and New Zealand markets, focusing on providing stylish and contemporary furniture solutions for customers looking to enhance their living spaces.
How the Company Makes MoneyNick Scali generates revenue primarily through the sale of its furniture and home decor products, which are sold through its retail stores and online platform. The company operates a network of showrooms across Australia and New Zealand, where customers can experience its product range firsthand. In addition to direct sales, the company often engages in promotional campaigns and offers financing options to customers, which can drive higher sales volumes. Seasonal sales events and partnerships with designers and suppliers also contribute to its revenue streams. Furthermore, Nick Scali benefits from strong brand recognition and customer loyalty, which helps maintain consistent sales and profitability.

Nick Scali Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Nick Scali Limited shows strong revenue growth and operational efficiency with solid profitability margins. However, the high debt-to-equity ratio and fluctuations in cash flow growth present potential risks. The company needs to focus on maintaining profitability while managing leverage for long-term stability.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Nick Scali Limited has demonstrated strong revenue growth over the years, with a significant increase of 53.9% in the latest year. The gross profit margin remains robust, consistently above 60%, indicating effective cost management. However, the net profit margin has decreased from previous years, reflecting potential challenges in maintaining profitability. Despite this, the company maintains a healthy EBIT and EBITDA margin, showcasing operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
The balance sheet shows a high debt-to-equity ratio, which has improved slightly over the years but remains a concern for financial stability. The return on equity is strong, indicating effective use of equity to generate profits. However, the equity ratio suggests a moderate reliance on debt financing, which could pose risks if not managed carefully.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
Nick Scali Limited has shown positive free cash flow growth, with a notable increase of 27.7% in the latest year. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy, indicating good cash generation relative to net income. However, fluctuations in free cash flow growth in previous years highlight potential volatility in cash flow management.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue495.28M495.28M468.19M507.72M440.96M373.04M
Gross Profit174.45M314.62M306.80M322.41M268.98M236.75M
EBITDA157.49M157.49M176.95M199.52M158.78M159.04M
Net Income57.68M57.68M80.61M101.08M74.92M84.24M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets705.81M705.81M704.88M607.64M616.39M489.25M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments100.99M100.99M111.33M89.25M74.62M106.89M
Total Debt316.14M316.14M320.37M318.17M329.60M226.98M
Total Liabilities439.13M439.13M447.10M427.73M475.47M375.22M
Stockholders Equity266.68M266.68M257.78M179.91M140.93M114.03M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow97.68M100.92M102.72M121.03M102.25M124.26M
Operating Cash Flow111.26M115.49M131.18M133.92M121.23M139.90M
Investing Cash Flow15.43M15.43M-64.91M-12.89M-121.50M-15.62M
Financing Cash Flow-108.79M-113.02M-74.19M-66.40M-72.00M-80.43M

Nick Scali Limited Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price21.16
Price Trends
50DMA
23.69
Positive
100DMA
23.48
Positive
200DMA
21.44
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.30
Positive
RSI
42.85
Neutral
STOCH
20.14
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:NCK, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 21.16 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 24.86, below the 50-day MA of 23.69, and below the 200-day MA of 21.44, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.30 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.14 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AU:NCK.

Nick Scali Limited Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
70
Neutral
AU$57.02M9.5617.58%6.10%-13.36%14.09%
66
Neutral
AU$53.86M12.3112.71%9.03%8.39%3.21%
61
Neutral
$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%
59
Neutral
AU$2.04B36.9721.99%2.63%5.79%-31.70%
58
Neutral
AU$324.53M12.2511.70%5.85%3.99%-18.35%
55
Neutral
AU$573.36M19.7516.86%2.86%1.89%-3.30%
54
Neutral
AU$1.40B122.588.81%20.66%543.24%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:NCK
Nick Scali Limited
23.86
8.36
53.94%
AU:TPW
Temple & Webster Group Ltd
11.67
-2.28
-16.34%
AU:ADH
Adairs Ltd.
1.83
-0.69
-27.47%
AU:DSK
Dusk Group Ltd.
0.87
-0.11
-11.73%
AU:SHM
Shriro Holdings Ltd.
0.80
0.08
10.42%
AU:BLX
Beacon Lighting Group Ltd
2.50
-0.60
-19.35%

Nick Scali Limited Corporate Events

State Street Group Ceases to Be Substantial Holder in Nick Scali Limited
Jan 29, 2026

Nick Scali Limited has disclosed that State Street Corporation, through various global asset management and banking subsidiaries, has ceased to be a substantial shareholder in the company as of 27 January 2026. The notice, lodged under Australia’s Corporations Act, indicates that the State Street group’s aggregate relevant interest in Nick Scali has fallen below the substantial holding threshold, signalling an exit or significant reduction of a major institutional investor from the register, which may alter the company’s shareholder mix and potentially affect trading liquidity and institutional ownership dynamics.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NCK) stock is a Buy with a A$29.30 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nick Scali Limited stock, see the AU:NCK Stock Forecast page.

State Street Exits Substantial Shareholder Position in Nick Scali
Jan 27, 2026

State Street Global Advisors and related State Street Corporation subsidiaries have filed a notice that they have ceased to be substantial shareholders in Nick Scali Limited as at 23 January 2026. The change reflects a reduction in their relevant voting interest below the substantial holding threshold, signalling a shift in the company’s institutional shareholder base that may marginally alter voting dynamics but does not, in itself, indicate any change to Nick Scali’s operations or strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NCK) stock is a Hold with a A$28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nick Scali Limited stock, see the AU:NCK Stock Forecast page.

Nick Scali Sets Date for Half-Year FY26 Results and Investor Webcast
Jan 22, 2026

Nick Scali Limited has announced that it will release its financial results for the half year ended 31 December 2025 on Friday, 13 February 2026, and will host a live webcast presentation for shareholders and other interested parties on the same day at 10:00am AEDT, led by Chief Executive Officer Anthony Scali and Chief Financial Officer Kylie Archer. The scheduled results release and investor briefing underline the company’s ongoing emphasis on transparent communication with the market, offering stakeholders an opportunity to gain insight into recent trading performance and outlook at a time of continued interest in the retail and furniture sectors.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NCK) stock is a Hold with a A$27.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nick Scali Limited stock, see the AU:NCK Stock Forecast page.

State Street Group Ceases to Be Substantial Holder in Nick Scali
Jan 6, 2026

State Street Corporation, through various subsidiaries including State Street Bank and Trust Company and State Street Global Advisors entities, has lodged a notice that it has ceased to be a substantial shareholder in Nick Scali Limited as of 2 January 2026. The change signals a reduction in a major institutional investor’s holding below the substantial shareholder threshold, potentially altering the company’s institutional shareholder base and slightly shifting the balance of influence among remaining investors, although no specific transaction details or strategic reasons for the change were disclosed.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NCK) stock is a Buy with a A$29.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nick Scali Limited stock, see the AU:NCK Stock Forecast page.

State Street Group Ceases to Be Substantial Holder in Nick Scali
Dec 24, 2025

State Street Corporation and several of its asset management subsidiaries have notified Nick Scali Limited that they have ceased to be substantial shareholders in the company as at 18 December 2025. The notice, lodged under section 671B of the Corporations Act, confirms that the group’s collective relevant interest in Nick Scali’s voting securities has fallen below the substantial holding threshold, signalling a reduction in institutional ownership that may marginally alter the company’s shareholder profile but does not directly affect day-to-day operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NCK) stock is a Buy with a A$28.85 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nick Scali Limited stock, see the AU:NCK Stock Forecast page.

Nick Scali Lifts First-Half FY26 Revenue and Profit Guidance
Dec 22, 2025

Nick Scali has upgraded its trading outlook for the first half of FY26, with revenue in Australia and New Zealand now expected to be 10%–12% higher than the previous year, compared with its earlier guidance of 7%–9%. The stronger-than-anticipated sales performance is set to lift statutory net profit after tax to between $37 million and $39 million, up from prior guidance of $33 million to $35 million, signalling resilient demand in its core markets and a more robust earnings trajectory for shareholders heading into the second half.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NCK) stock is a Buy with a A$27.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nick Scali Limited stock, see the AU:NCK Stock Forecast page.

State Street Corporation Subsidiary Ceases Significant Stake in Nick Scali Limited
Dec 18, 2025

Nick Scali Limited, a company involved in the furniture retail industry, has announced that a substantial holder connected with State Street Corporation and its subsidiaries ceased to hold a significant stake in the company as of December 16, 2025. This change could impact the firm’s shareholder composition, reflecting potential adjustments in its institutional investment structure with implications for market sentiment and company operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NCK) stock is a Buy with a A$27.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nick Scali Limited stock, see the AU:NCK Stock Forecast page.

State Street Corporation Ceases Substantial Holding in Nick Scali Limited
Dec 16, 2025

Nick Scali Limited has announced that State Street Corporation and its subsidiaries have ceased to be substantial holders of the company’s voting securities as of December 12, 2025. This change in substantial holding could impact the company’s shareholder structure and influence, potentially affecting future voting outcomes and strategic decisions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NCK) stock is a Buy with a A$27.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nick Scali Limited stock, see the AU:NCK Stock Forecast page.

State Street Corporation Ceases Substantial Holding in Nick Scali Limited
Dec 9, 2025

Nick Scali Limited, a company involved in the furniture retail industry, has announced changes in the substantial holding of its voting securities. State Street Corporation and its subsidiaries have ceased to be substantial holders of Nick Scali Limited as of December 5, 2025. This change in holding may impact the company’s shareholder structure and influence future corporate decisions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NCK) stock is a Buy with a A$27.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nick Scali Limited stock, see the AU:NCK Stock Forecast page.

State Street Corporation Ceases Substantial Holding in Nick Scali Limited
Nov 28, 2025

Nick Scali Limited has announced that State Street Corporation and its subsidiaries have ceased to be substantial holders in the company as of November 26, 2025. This change in substantial holding may impact the company’s shareholder structure and could have implications for its market positioning and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NCK) stock is a Buy with a A$27.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nick Scali Limited stock, see the AU:NCK Stock Forecast page.

State Street Ceases Substantial Holding in Nick Scali Limited
Nov 25, 2025

Nick Scali Limited has announced that State Street Corporation and its subsidiaries have ceased to be substantial holders in the company as of November 21, 2025. This change in substantial holding may impact the company’s shareholder structure and could influence its market perception and investor confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NCK) stock is a Hold with a A$24.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nick Scali Limited stock, see the AU:NCK Stock Forecast page.

State Street Corporation Ceases Substantial Holding in Nick Scali Limited
Nov 20, 2025

Nick Scali Limited has announced that a substantial holder, State Street Corporation and its subsidiaries, have ceased to hold a significant interest in the company as of November 18, 2025. This change in substantial holding could impact the company’s shareholder structure and may influence its market perception, although specific implications for stakeholders were not detailed in the release.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NCK) stock is a Hold with a A$24.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nick Scali Limited stock, see the AU:NCK Stock Forecast page.

State Street Corporation Ceases Substantial Holding in Nick Scali Limited
Nov 14, 2025

Nick Scali Limited has announced that State Street Corporation and its subsidiaries have ceased to be substantial holders in the company as of November 12, 2025. This change in substantial holding could impact the company’s shareholder structure and influence in the market, potentially affecting its strategic decisions and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NCK) stock is a Hold with a A$27.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nick Scali Limited stock, see the AU:NCK Stock Forecast page.

State Street Global Advisors Ceases Substantial Holding in Nick Scali Limited
Nov 3, 2025

Nick Scali Limited has announced that State Street Global Advisors Limited and its associated entities have ceased to be substantial holders in the company as of October 30, 2025. This change in substantial holding could impact the company’s shareholder dynamics and influence its market positioning, potentially affecting investor sentiment and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NCK) stock is a Hold with a A$27.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nick Scali Limited stock, see the AU:NCK Stock Forecast page.

Nick Scali Limited Announces Director Departure
Oct 29, 2025

Nick Scali Limited has announced the cessation of John Weir Ingram as a director, effective October 29, 2025. This change in the board may impact the company’s strategic direction, as Ingram held a significant interest in the company with 206,387 fully paid ordinary shares through Netwealth Investments Limited.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NCK) stock is a Buy with a A$24.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nick Scali Limited stock, see the AU:NCK Stock Forecast page.

Nick Scali Limited’s 2025 AGM Resolutions Passed with Strong Support
Oct 29, 2025

Nick Scali Limited announced that all resolutions proposed at its 2025 Annual General Meeting were passed by a poll, indicating strong shareholder support. The successful resolutions, including the re-election and election of directors, reflect the company’s stable governance and strategic direction, which is likely to have a positive impact on its market positioning and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NCK) stock is a Buy with a A$24.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nick Scali Limited stock, see the AU:NCK Stock Forecast page.

Nick Scali Limited Reports Strong FY25 Performance and Strategic Board Changes
Oct 29, 2025

Nick Scali Limited reported a strong financial performance for the fiscal year 2025, achieving an underlying profit of $62 million. The company successfully completed an equity raise to fund its UK acquisition, resulting in net proceeds of $58.6 million. The appointment of Niran Peiris to the Board and the transition of Anthony Scali to Executive Chair are expected to guide the company’s next growth phase. In ANZ, sales orders increased by 3%, though revenue slightly declined by 1.4% due to rising shipping costs and other expenses. The UK operations, impacted by store refurbishments and rebranding, generated $41.8 million in revenue.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NCK) stock is a Buy with a A$24.40 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nick Scali Limited stock, see the AU:NCK Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 18, 2025