Nick Scali Limited (NCK) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$1.47B
• Dividend Yield: 2.63%
• Average Volume (3M): 269.77K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 21.5
• Beta (1Y): 1.18
• Revenue Growth: 5.79%
• EPS Growth: -31.70%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 930
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Specialty Retail
• EPS (TTM): 0.48
• Shares Outstanding: 85,530,700
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 282,624
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 269,768
• PEG Ratio: -0.86
• Price to Book (P/B): 5.83
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.14
• P/FCF Ratio: 15.42
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: AU$22.56
• Price Target Upside: 6.59% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.92
• Revenue Forecast (FY): AU$542.84M

• Rating: 61 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$19.50 ▼(-7.84% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/14/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/14/26

The score is primarily supported by solid financial performance (strong revenue growth and margins) but is tempered by leverage risk and weaker profitability trend. Technicals are a major drag due to a pronounced downtrend and bearish momentum despite oversold signals. Valuation is mixed, with a relatively high P/E partly balanced by a moderate dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

A sustained large revenue increase indicates strengthening demand for Nick Scali’s core furniture categories and effective channel execution. Durable top-line growth supports scale benefits, inventory turnover improvements and provides runway to invest in stores, ecommerce and product range over the next 2-6 months.

Gross Margin Strength

Consistently high gross margins point to structural pricing power or sourcing advantages in furniture categories. Margin resilience helps absorb cost inflation, supports operating leverage as sales scale, and underpins medium-term cash generation and reinvestment capacity for growth initiatives.

Cash Generation

Significant FCF growth and a healthy operating cash to net income ratio reflect solid cash conversion from operations. Reliable cash generation materially improves the company’s ability to service debt, fund store and ecommerce expansion, and sustain dividends or buybacks over a multi-quarter horizon.

Negative Factors

Leverage Risk

An elevated debt-to-equity ratio increases financial vulnerability to sales volatility and interest cost moves. With retail cyclicality, leverage can constrain strategic flexibility, raise refinancing risk and limit capital allocation options if cash flow softens, making balance sheet management a durable risk.

Declining Net Profit Margin

A falling net margin despite strong gross margins signals pressure from higher operating costs, SG&A, or financing expenses. Persistent margin erosion would weaken returns on incremental revenue, reduce free cash flow available for reinvestment, and impair the company’s ability to sustain payouts or absorb shocks.

Volatile Cash Flow History

Historical swings in free cash flow, even with a recent uptick, show cash generation can be uneven. For a leveraged retailer, FCF volatility complicates planning for capex, inventory and debt servicing, increasing the chance of funding stress or curtailed shareholder returns in adverse quarters.

Nick Scali Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Nick Scali Limited (NCK) is an Australian furniture retailer that specializes in the design, manufacture, and retail of high-quality furniture and home decor products. Founded in 1962, the company operates in the home furnishings sector, offering a wide range of products including sofas, dining tables, bedroom furniture, and accessories. Nick Scali has established a strong presence in the Australian and New Zealand markets, focusing on providing stylish and contemporary furniture solutions for customers looking to enhance their living spaces.

How the Company Makes Money

Nick Scali generates revenue primarily through the sale of its furniture and home decor products, which are sold through its retail stores and online platform. The company operates a network of showrooms across Australia and New Zealand, where customers can experience its product range firsthand. In addition to direct sales, the company often engages in promotional campaigns and offers financing options to customers, which can drive higher sales volumes. Seasonal sales events and partnerships with designers and suppliers also contribute to its revenue streams. Furthermore, Nick Scali benefits from strong brand recognition and customer loyalty, which helps maintain consistent sales and profitability.

Nick Scali Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong revenue growth (+53.9%) and consistently robust gross margins (above 60%) support the score. Offsetting this are declining net profit margin, a still-elevated debt-to-equity ratio (leverage risk), and historical volatility in free cash flow growth despite a solid recent increase (+27.7%).

Income Statement

Nick Scali Limited has demonstrated strong revenue growth over the years, with a significant increase of 53.9% in the latest year. The gross profit margin remains robust, consistently above 60%, indicating effective cost management. However, the net profit margin has decreased from previous years, reflecting potential challenges in maintaining profitability. Despite this, the company maintains a healthy EBIT and EBITDA margin, showcasing operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a high debt-to-equity ratio, which has improved slightly over the years but remains a concern for financial stability. The return on equity is strong, indicating effective use of equity to generate profits. However, the equity ratio suggests a moderate reliance on debt financing, which could pose risks if not managed carefully.

Cash Flow

Nick Scali Limited has shown positive free cash flow growth, with a notable increase of 27.7% in the latest year. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy, indicating good cash generation relative to net income. However, fluctuations in free cash flow growth in previous years highlight potential volatility in cash flow management.

Breakdown	TTM	Jun 2025	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	513.47M	495.28M	468.19M	507.72M	440.96M	373.04M
Gross Profit	190.58M	314.62M	306.80M	322.41M	268.98M	236.75M
EBITDA	173.00M	157.49M	176.95M	199.52M	158.78M	159.04M
Net Income	68.62M	57.68M	80.61M	101.08M	74.92M	84.24M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	720.35M	705.81M	704.88M	607.64M	616.39M	489.25M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	91.68M	100.99M	111.33M	89.25M	74.62M	106.89M
Total Debt	546.40M	316.14M	320.37M	318.17M	329.60M	226.98M
Total Liabilities	442.35M	439.13M	447.10M	427.73M	475.47M	375.22M
Stockholders Equity	278.00M	266.68M	257.78M	179.91M	140.93M	114.03M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	118.79M	100.92M	102.72M	121.03M	102.25M	124.26M
Operating Cash Flow	143.41M	115.49M	131.18M	133.92M	121.23M	139.90M
Investing Cash Flow	-25.77M	15.43M	-64.91M	-12.89M	-121.50M	-15.62M
Financing Cash Flow	-114.06M	-113.02M	-74.19M	-66.40M	-72.00M	-80.43M

Nick Scali Limited Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 21.16
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:NCK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 21.16 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.08, below the 50-day MA of 22.23, and below the 200-day MA of 21.23, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.54 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 27.31 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.62 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:NCK.

Nick Scali Limited Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SHM	70 Neutral	AU$56.66M	7.57	17.58%	6.10%	-13.36%	14.09%
DSK	66 Neutral	AU$58.53M	11.94	12.71%	9.03%	8.39%	3.21%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
NCK	61 Neutral	AU$1.47B	21.49	21.99%	2.63%	5.79%	-31.70%
ADH	60 Neutral	AU$301.47M	15.71	11.70%	5.85%	3.99%	-18.35%
TPW	55 Neutral	AU$891.24M	109.45	8.81%	―	20.66%	543.24%
BLX	55 Neutral	AU$472.44M	16.64	16.86%	2.86%	1.89%	-3.30%

Nick Scali Limited Corporate Events

State Street Group Ceases to Be Substantial Holder in Nick Scali Limited

Nick Scali Limited has disclosed that State Street Corporation, through various global asset management and banking subsidiaries, has ceased to be a substantial shareholder in the company as of 27 January 2026. The notice, lodged under Australia’s Corporations Act, indicates that the State Street group’s aggregate relevant interest in Nick Scali has fallen below the substantial holding threshold, signalling an exit or significant reduction of a major institutional investor from the register, which may alter the company’s shareholder mix and potentially affect trading liquidity and institutional ownership dynamics.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NCK) stock is a Buy with a A$29.30 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nick Scali Limited stock, see the AU:NCK Stock Forecast page.

State Street Exits Substantial Shareholder Position in Nick Scali

State Street Global Advisors and related State Street Corporation subsidiaries have filed a notice that they have ceased to be substantial shareholders in Nick Scali Limited as at 23 January 2026. The change reflects a reduction in their relevant voting interest below the substantial holding threshold, signalling a shift in the company’s institutional shareholder base that may marginally alter voting dynamics but does not, in itself, indicate any change to Nick Scali’s operations or strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NCK) stock is a Hold with a A$28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nick Scali Limited stock, see the AU:NCK Stock Forecast page.

Nick Scali Sets Date for Half-Year FY26 Results and Investor Webcast

Nick Scali Limited has announced that it will release its financial results for the half year ended 31 December 2025 on Friday, 13 February 2026, and will host a live webcast presentation for shareholders and other interested parties on the same day at 10:00am AEDT, led by Chief Executive Officer Anthony Scali and Chief Financial Officer Kylie Archer. The scheduled results release and investor briefing underline the company’s ongoing emphasis on transparent communication with the market, offering stakeholders an opportunity to gain insight into recent trading performance and outlook at a time of continued interest in the retail and furniture sectors.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NCK) stock is a Hold with a A$27.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nick Scali Limited stock, see the AU:NCK Stock Forecast page.

State Street Group Ceases to Be Substantial Holder in Nick Scali

State Street Corporation, through various subsidiaries including State Street Bank and Trust Company and State Street Global Advisors entities, has lodged a notice that it has ceased to be a substantial shareholder in Nick Scali Limited as of 2 January 2026. The change signals a reduction in a major institutional investor’s holding below the substantial shareholder threshold, potentially altering the company’s institutional shareholder base and slightly shifting the balance of influence among remaining investors, although no specific transaction details or strategic reasons for the change were disclosed.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NCK) stock is a Buy with a A$29.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nick Scali Limited stock, see the AU:NCK Stock Forecast page.

State Street Group Ceases to Be Substantial Holder in Nick Scali

State Street Corporation and several of its asset management subsidiaries have notified Nick Scali Limited that they have ceased to be substantial shareholders in the company as at 18 December 2025. The notice, lodged under section 671B of the Corporations Act, confirms that the group’s collective relevant interest in Nick Scali’s voting securities has fallen below the substantial holding threshold, signalling a reduction in institutional ownership that may marginally alter the company’s shareholder profile but does not directly affect day-to-day operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NCK) stock is a Buy with a A$28.85 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nick Scali Limited stock, see the AU:NCK Stock Forecast page.

Nick Scali Lifts First-Half FY26 Revenue and Profit Guidance

Nick Scali has upgraded its trading outlook for the first half of FY26, with revenue in Australia and New Zealand now expected to be 10%–12% higher than the previous year, compared with its earlier guidance of 7%–9%. The stronger-than-anticipated sales performance is set to lift statutory net profit after tax to between $37 million and $39 million, up from prior guidance of $33 million to $35 million, signalling resilient demand in its core markets and a more robust earnings trajectory for shareholders heading into the second half.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NCK) stock is a Buy with a A$27.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nick Scali Limited stock, see the AU:NCK Stock Forecast page.

State Street Corporation Subsidiary Ceases Significant Stake in Nick Scali Limited

Nick Scali Limited, a company involved in the furniture retail industry, has announced that a substantial holder connected with State Street Corporation and its subsidiaries ceased to hold a significant stake in the company as of December 16, 2025. This change could impact the firm’s shareholder composition, reflecting potential adjustments in its institutional investment structure with implications for market sentiment and company operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NCK) stock is a Buy with a A$27.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nick Scali Limited stock, see the AU:NCK Stock Forecast page.

State Street Corporation Ceases Substantial Holding in Nick Scali Limited

Nick Scali Limited has announced that State Street Corporation and its subsidiaries have ceased to be substantial holders of the company’s voting securities as of December 12, 2025. This change in substantial holding could impact the company’s shareholder structure and influence, potentially affecting future voting outcomes and strategic decisions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NCK) stock is a Buy with a A$27.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nick Scali Limited stock, see the AU:NCK Stock Forecast page.

State Street Corporation Ceases Substantial Holding in Nick Scali Limited

Nick Scali Limited, a company involved in the furniture retail industry, has announced changes in the substantial holding of its voting securities. State Street Corporation and its subsidiaries have ceased to be substantial holders of Nick Scali Limited as of December 5, 2025. This change in holding may impact the company’s shareholder structure and influence future corporate decisions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NCK) stock is a Buy with a A$27.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nick Scali Limited stock, see the AU:NCK Stock Forecast page.

State Street Corporation Ceases Substantial Holding in Nick Scali Limited

Nick Scali Limited has announced that State Street Corporation and its subsidiaries have ceased to be substantial holders in the company as of November 26, 2025. This change in substantial holding may impact the company’s shareholder structure and could have implications for its market positioning and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NCK) stock is a Buy with a A$27.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nick Scali Limited stock, see the AU:NCK Stock Forecast page.

State Street Ceases Substantial Holding in Nick Scali Limited

Nick Scali Limited has announced that State Street Corporation and its subsidiaries have ceased to be substantial holders in the company as of November 21, 2025. This change in substantial holding may impact the company’s shareholder structure and could influence its market perception and investor confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NCK) stock is a Hold with a A$24.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nick Scali Limited stock, see the AU:NCK Stock Forecast page.

State Street Corporation Ceases Substantial Holding in Nick Scali Limited

Nick Scali Limited has announced that a substantial holder, State Street Corporation and its subsidiaries, have ceased to hold a significant interest in the company as of November 18, 2025. This change in substantial holding could impact the company’s shareholder structure and may influence its market perception, although specific implications for stakeholders were not detailed in the release.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:NCK) stock is a Hold with a A$24.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nick Scali Limited stock, see the AU:NCK Stock Forecast page.