Aurizon Holdings Ltd. (AU:AZJ)
ASX:AZJ
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Aurizon Holdings
(Sydney:AZJ)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
AU$4.50
▲(13.07% Upside)
Action:UpgradedDate:02/17/26
The score is driven primarily by steady (but mixed) financial performance with strong cash generation, complemented by constructive technical momentum. Positive earnings-call signals—raised dividend expectations and continued buybacks alongside maintained EBITDA guidance—support the outlook, while valuation is only moderate due to a mid-to-high P/E despite an attractive dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Free cash flow generation
Sustained free cash flow ($335m, +41%) underpins durable capital flexibility: it funds sustaining and growth CapEx, supports a high dividend payout and buybacks, and provides a buffer against commodity cycle volatility, enabling reinvestment and balance sheet repairs over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Persistently high gearing (55.5%) and net debt/EBITDA (~3.1x) limit strategic flexibility and raise interest-rate and covenant sensitivity. Elevated leverage constrains the pace of deleveraging while the company maintains buybacks and dividends, increasing financial risk during demand downturns.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Free cash flow generation
Sustained free cash flow ($335m, +41%) underpins durable capital flexibility: it funds sustaining and growth CapEx, supports a high dividend payout and buybacks, and provides a buffer against commodity cycle volatility, enabling reinvestment and balance sheet repairs over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Aurizon Holdings (AZJ) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$6.70B
Dividend Yield4.29%
Average Volume (3M)5.23M
Price to Earnings (P/E)6.8
Beta (1Y)0.59
Revenue Growth3.01%
EPS Growth-23.84%
CountryAU
Employees6,057
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryRailroads
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.14
Shares Outstanding1,683,307,300
10 Day Avg. Volume6,154,615
30 Day Avg. Volume5,226,571
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.79
Price to Book (P/B)1.33
Price to Sales (P/S)1.40
P/FCF Ratio7.08
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$3.67Price Target Upside-7.72% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)0.25
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$4.16B
Aurizon Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Aurizon Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates as a rail freight operator in Australia. The company operates through Network, Coal, Bulk, and Other segments. It transports various commodities, including mining, agricultural, industri...
How the Company Makes Money
Aurizon generates revenue primarily through its freight transportation services, which encompass coal haulage, iron ore logistics, and general freight operations. The company's key revenue streams include contracts with mining companies for the tr...
Aurizon Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 15, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| Next Earnings Date:Aug 17, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a predominantly positive financial and strategic update: underlying EBITDA, free cash flow and EPS showed strong growth, record Bulk results and meaningful cost savings were delivered, and the company increased shareholder returns via a higher dividend payout and a buyback extension. Strategic progress includes the UT5+ submission, major BHP contract commencement and progress on containerised freight mitigations. Offsetting factors include continued safety focus following a deterioration in total recordable injuries, ongoing containerised freight profitability challenges from third‑party disruptions, ERP implementation costs, and Coal yield/headwinds and contractual uncertainty in the Hunter Valley. Overall, the positives around earnings, cash generation, cost discipline and capital management outweigh the highlighted challenges.Positive Updates
Underlying EBITDA Growth
Underlying EBITDA increased by 9%, driven by solid contributions from Network, Bulk and Coal and supported by regulatory revenue and higher volumes.
Negative Updates
Containerised Freight Profitability and Disruptions
Containerised Freight EBITDA declined by ~$11 million (partially due to a prior period $18 million legal settlement). Breakeven has not yet been achieved due to Cross River Rail disruptions, higher operating costs from increased frequencies and third-party network outages.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Underlying EBITDA Growth
Underlying EBITDA increased by 9%, driven by solid contributions from Network, Bulk and Coal and supported by regulatory revenue and higher volumes.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Aurizon maintained group underlying EBITDA guidance of $1.68–$1.75 billion and lifted full‑year dividend expectations to $0.22–$0.23 per share (from $0.19–$0.20) alongside a 90% payout ratio (interim dividend $0.125/share, 90% franked); non‑growth CapEx was trimmed to $580–$600 million (including $30m transformation capital) while growth CapEx was maintained at $100–$150 million and long‑term sustaining CapEx is expected ~ $550–$600m pa; half‑year CapEx was $327m (non‑growth $247m, growth $80m). Management reported underlying free cash flow of $335m (up 41%), a H1 cash tax rate of 32% (expected <30% by year‑end), group gearing of 55.5% (56.2% FY25), group net debt/EBITDA of 3.1x and credit ratings BBB+/Baa1, and announced a $100m buyback extension (taking FY26 buybacks to up to $250m) after $425m of buybacks completed in 18 months at an avg price of $3.36 (126m shares cancelled, EPS +7.4%); guidance assumes Network, Coal, Bulk and Other EBITDA will be higher than FY25 and excludes major supply‑chain disruptions or extreme prolonged wet weather.Aurizon Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
65
Positive
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.97B | 3.87B | 3.76B | 3.44B | 3.00B | 2.96B |
| Gross Profit | 894.00M | 3.25B | 1.56B | 712.00M | 796.00M | 870.10M |
| EBITDA | 1.54B | 1.53B | 1.64B | 1.38B | 1.46B | 1.50B |
| Net Income | 305.00M | 303.00M | 406.00M | 276.00M | 513.00M | 730.30M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 11.62B | 11.64B | 11.82B | 11.89B | 9.85B | 10.00B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 43.00M | 64.00M | 49.00M | 92.00M | 172.10M | 148.80M |
| Total Debt | 5.20B | 5.50B | 5.08B | 5.28B | 3.34B | 3.88B |
| Total Liabilities | 7.48B | 7.56B | 7.38B | 7.54B | 5.44B | 5.72B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.14B | 4.09B | 4.44B | 4.35B | 4.41B | 4.27B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 435.00M | 765.00M | 451.00M | 91.00M | 641.50M | 580.60M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.12B | 1.46B | 1.27B | 849.00M | 1.19B | 1.10B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -678.00M | -707.00M | -692.00M | -2.85B | -527.00M | -361.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -445.00M | -739.00M | -626.00M | 1.92B | -639.70M | -615.00M |
Aurizon Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
3.98
Price Trends
3.77
Positive
3.60
Positive
3.35
Positive
Market Momentum
0.04
Positive
57.99
Neutral
72.53
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:AZJ, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3.98 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.98, above the 50-day MA of 3.77, and above the 200-day MA of 3.35, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 57.99 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 72.53 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:AZJ.
Aurizon Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | AU$30.05B | 10.05 | 28.67% | 2.69% | 3.11% | 12.79% | |
72 Outperform | AU$6.70B | 6.76 | 7.42% | 4.29% | 3.01% | -23.84% | |
65 Neutral | AU$2.81B | 10.17 | 20.27% | 2.65% | 7.20% | 32.60% | |
64 Neutral | AU$5.11B | 14.22 | 7.97% | 3.11% | -4.53% | 97.67% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
58 Neutral | AU$8.66B | 9.81 | 7.13% | 2.07% | 28.47% | -50.19% | |
51 Neutral | AU$2.52B | 84.90 | 8.17% | 4.73% | 13.19% | 14.79% |
* Industrials Sector Average
AU:AZJ
Aurizon Holdings
3.98
1.03
35.10%
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Aurizon Holdings Corporate Events
Aurizon Discloses Final Director’s Interest Notice Following Timothy Poole’s Board Exit
Jan 20, 2026
Aurizon Holdings has notified the ASX that director Timothy Poole ceased to be a director on 15 January 2026 and lodged a final Director’s Interest Notice in accordance with listing rule requirements. The notice details Poole’s relevan...
Aurizon Sets Date for Release of 1H FY2026 Results and Investor Briefing
Jan 20, 2026
Aurizon Holdings has announced that it will release its half-year financial results for the first half of FY2026 on 16 February 2026, and will host a briefing for analysts and investors on the same day. The scheduled briefing underscores the compa...
Aurizon Reports Lapse of Over 212,000 Performance Rights
Jan 14, 2026
Aurizon Holdings has reported the cessation of 212,819 performance rights, which lapsed after specified conditions for their vesting were not met or became incapable of being satisfied as of 25 October 2025. The lapse modestly reduces the pool of ...
Aurizon Cancels 36 Million Shares Following On-Market Buy-Back
Jan 14, 2026
Aurizon Holdings has cancelled 36,229,962 ordinary fully paid shares following completion of an on-market share buy-back, effective 31 December 2025. The reduction in issued capital is expected to enhance capital management efficiency and may supp...
Aurizon Director Samantha Tough Increases Personal Shareholding
Jan 5, 2026
Aurizon Holdings has disclosed a change in director Samantha Tough’s shareholding, as required under market disclosure rules. Tough acquired 8,000 additional Aurizon ordinary shares on 31 December 2025 at $3.68 per share, increasing her dire...
Aurizon Appoints Amanda McMillan to Board, Reports No Initial Shareholding
Jan 5, 2026
Aurizon Holdings has notified the market of the appointment of Amanda McMillan as a director of the company, effective 1 January 2026, in accordance with ASX disclosure requirements. The initial director’s interest notice confirms that McMil...
Aurizon Director Samantha Tough Increases Shareholding in Routine ASX Disclosure
Jan 1, 2026
Aurizon Holdings has notified the ASX of a change in director Samantha Tough’s interests, following her indirect acquisition of 8,391 ordinary shares in the company on 22 December 2025 at $3.575 per share. As a result of the transaction, Tou...
Aurizon Expands On‑Market Share Buy-Back With Daily Update
Dec 31, 2025
Aurizon Holdings Limited, listed on the ASX under the code AZJ, has an on‑market buy-back program in place for its ordinary fully paid shares. The rail freight operator is using this capital management tool to reduce its share count and pote...
Aurizon Updates Market on Progress of On‑Market Share Buy-Back
Dec 30, 2025
Aurizon Holdings has provided an update on its on-market share buy-back program, confirming that it repurchased 1,769,153 ordinary fully paid shares on the previous trading day, taking the cumulative total bought back to 33,146,207 shares since th...
Aurizon Continues On-Market Share Buy-Back With Updated ASX Notification
Dec 29, 2025
Aurizon Holdings has provided an updated notification to the ASX regarding its ongoing on-market share buy-back program for its ordinary fully paid shares. As of 29 December 2025, the company reported that a cumulative total of 30,862,605 shares h...
Aurizon Updates Market on Ongoing On‑Market Share Buyback
Dec 24, 2025
Aurizon Holdings Limited is an Australian rail freight and logistics company listed on the ASX under ticker AZJ, operating primarily in the transportation of bulk commodities and other freight services nationwide. The company has updated the marke...
Aurizon Updates Market on Progress of On‑Market Share Buy-Back Program
Dec 23, 2025
Aurizon Holdings has provided an updated notification of its on‑market share buy-back, confirming that a total of 26,930,983 ordinary fully paid shares had been repurchased prior to the latest trading day, with a further 2,129,134 shares bou...
Aurizon Updates Market on Progress of On‑Market Share Buy-Back
Dec 22, 2025
Aurizon Holdings Limited has provided an updated daily notification to the ASX on its ongoing on-market share buy-back of ordinary fully paid shares, confirming that it repurchased 653,533 securities on the previous trading day, taking the cumulat...
Aurizon Holdings Updates on Market Buy-Back Program
Nov 28, 2025
Aurizon Holdings Limited has announced an update on its ongoing on-market buy-back program, with a total of 889,029 ordinary fully paid securities bought back on the previous day. This initiative is part of the company’s strategy to optimize...
Aurizon Holdings Updates on Daily Buy-Back Program
Nov 27, 2025
Aurizon Holdings Limited has announced a daily update regarding its ongoing on-market buy-back program, with a total of 545,924 ordinary fully paid securities bought back on the previous day, adding to the cumulative total of 24,842,497 securities...
Aurizon Holdings Updates on Share Buy-Back Progress
Nov 26, 2025
Aurizon Holdings Limited announced a daily update on its ongoing on-market buy-back program, revealing that a total of 474,557 ordinary fully paid securities were repurchased on the previous day, adding to the cumulative total of 24,367,940 shares...
Aurizon Holdings Updates Share Buy-Back Progress
Nov 24, 2025
Aurizon Holdings Limited has announced an update regarding its ongoing share buy-back program. The company reported the buy-back of 1,360,099 ordinary fully paid securities on the previous day, bringing the total number of securities bought back t...
Aurizon Holdings Updates on Market Buy-Back Program
Nov 21, 2025
Aurizon Holdings Limited has announced an update on its ongoing on-market buy-back program, with a total of 751,165 ordinary fully paid securities bought back on the previous day, adding to the cumulative total of 21,839,222 securities. This buy-b...
Aurizon Holdings Updates on Market Buy-Back Program
Nov 20, 2025
Aurizon Holdings Limited has announced an update regarding its ongoing on-market buy-back program. As of the latest notification, the company has repurchased a total of 21,548,272 securities, with an additional 290,950 securities bought back on th...
Aurizon Holdings Updates on Share Buy-Back Program
Nov 19, 2025
Aurizon Holdings Limited has announced an update on its ongoing on-market buy-back program. As of the latest notification, the company has repurchased a total of 21,548,272 ordinary fully paid securities, with 292,732 bought back on the previous d...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.