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Aurizon Holdings
(Sydney:AZJ)
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Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
AU$4.00
▼(-5.88% Downside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:08/20/26
The score is primarily held back by weak technicals (price below major averages with negative momentum and oversold readings) and a balance-sheet that has become more levered with softer net margins and uneven free-cash-flow conversion. Offsetting this, operating performance and cash generation remain solid, valuation is reasonable with an attractive dividend yield, and the earnings call conveyed constructive FY27 guidance despite a coal earnings reset risk.
Positive Factors
Resilient operating economics
Steady revenue growth alongside high operating margins indicates durable demand and strong rail economics. This supports earnings resilience as Aurizon improves utilisation, renews contracts and expands beyond its traditional coal exposure.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage and refinancing risk
Higher leverage reduces financial flexibility and leaves Aurizon more sensitive to refinancing costs and interest rates. Although liquidity and hedging provide protection, debt service may constrain capital allocation and balance-sheet repair.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Resilient operating economics
Steady revenue growth alongside high operating margins indicates durable demand and strong rail economics. This supports earnings resilience as Aurizon improves utilisation, renews contracts and expands beyond its traditional coal exposure.
Read all positive factors
Aurizon Holdings (AZJ) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$6.11B
Dividend Yield5.17%
Average Volume (3M)5.23M
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.3
Beta (1Y)0.51
Revenue Growth5.89%
EPS Growth21.43%
CountryAU
Employees5,997
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryRailroads
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.21
Shares Outstanding1,683,307,300
10 Day Avg. Volume6,154,615
30 Day Avg. Volume5,226,571
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.85
Price to Book (P/B)1.82
Price to Sales (P/S)1.75
P/FCF Ratio18.08
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$3.68Price Target Upside-13.39% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)0.26
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$4.24B
Aurizon Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Aurizon Holdings Limited operates as a prominent rail freight service provider throughout Australia via its subsidiaries. The company organizes its business across Network, Coal, Bulk, and Other divisions. It specializes in transporting a diverse ...
How the Company Makes Money
Aurizon makes money through two core revenue streams: (1) providing rail freight haulage services (above-rail) and (2) charging for access to and services on its rail networks (below-rail).\n\n1) Above-rail freight (Freight segment): Aurizon earns...
Aurizon Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 16, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| Next Earnings Date:Feb 08, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call communicated a broadly positive year: strong underlying financial results (EPS +29%, underlying EBITDA +9%, NPAT +24%), robust cash generation, a completed A$250m buyback, higher dividends and clear strategic progress (UT5+ regulatory progress, bulk growth, container momentum and vehicle logistics entry). Offsetting risks include a mixed safety outcome, a coal earnings reset driven by lower contracted volumes (contracted volumes down ~20m tonnes), a modest non‑cash impairment and one‑off costs, containerized freight not yet profitable (requires ~25% more volumes to breakeven) and exposure to coal market/supply and refinancing/interest rate risks. On balance the positives—notably financial strength, shareholder returns, regulatory progress and growth initiatives—outweigh the negatives, though execution on coal transformation and containerized freight breakeven are key watchpoints.Positive Updates
Strong overall financial performance
FY26 group revenue $4.2bn (+6% YoY); underlying EBITDA $1.7bn (+9% YoY); underlying NPAT +24% and earnings per share +29% — demonstrating solid top- and bottom-line growth.
Negative Updates
Safety performance mixed — TRIs increased
Although serious injury frequency reduced and H2 was better than H1, total recordable injuries increased in FY26, flagged as 'not where we want performance to be.'
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong overall financial performance
FY26 group revenue $4.2bn (+6% YoY); underlying EBITDA $1.7bn (+9% YoY); underlying NPAT +24% and earnings per share +29% — demonstrating solid top- and bottom-line growth.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Aurizon guided FY2027 group underlying EBITDA of A$1.725–1.775 billion, full‑year dividends of A$0.23–0.24 per share, non‑growth CapEx of A$590–660 million (including ~A$25 million transformation capital) and growth CapEx of A$70–120 million; management expects network earnings to be higher, coal earnings to be lower (contracted volumes reduced while haul volumes stay broadly flat), bulk earnings higher (full‑year contribution from new contracts) and containerized freight to reach EBITDA breakeven in FY2027—all assuming no major supply‑chain or weather disruptions—and noted regulatory sensitivity (UT5+ placeholder WACC 7.79% now ~8.3%, and ~25 bps rise in the risk‑free rate would add ≈A$15m p.a. to network revenue); balance‑sheet context: net debt ≈A$5.2 billion, available liquidity ≈A$1.1 billion, gearing ~57%, net‑debt/EBITDA ~3x, interest hedging ~95%, and a capital allocation aim to target dividends in the 70–100% of underlying NPAT range (90% paid in FY2026).Aurizon Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 4.10B | 3.87B | 3.76B | 3.44B | 3.00B |
| Gross Profit | 890.00M | 3.25B | 1.56B | 712.00M | 796.00M |
| EBITDA | 1.61B | 1.53B | 1.64B | 1.38B | 1.46B |
| Net Income | 362.00M | 303.00M | 406.00M | 276.00M | 513.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 11.96B | 11.64B | 11.82B | 11.89B | 9.85B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 128.00M | 64.00M | 49.00M | 92.00M | 172.10M |
| Total Debt | 5.63B | 5.50B | 5.08B | 5.28B | 3.34B |
| Total Liabilities | 8.02B | 7.56B | 7.38B | 7.54B | 5.44B |
| Stockholders Equity | 3.94B | 4.09B | 4.44B | 4.35B | 4.41B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 397.00M | 765.00M | 451.00M | 91.00M | 641.50M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.14B | 1.46B | 1.27B | 849.00M | 1.19B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -742.00M | -707.00M | -692.00M | -2.85B | -527.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -333.00M | -739.00M | -626.00M | 1.92B | -639.70M |
Aurizon Holdings Technical Analysis
Negative
4.25
Price Trends
4.18
Negative
4.17
Negative
3.89
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.11
Positive
17.79
Positive
4.86
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:AZJ, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.25 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.13, above the 50-day MA of 4.18, and above the 200-day MA of 3.89, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.11 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 17.79 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 4.86 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:AZJ.
Aurizon Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | AU$25.90B | 19.94 | 28.67% | 3.41% | 5.29% | 15.50% | |
66 Neutral | AU$3.14B | 29.13 | 20.27% | 2.98% | 26.80% | 40.18% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
60 Neutral | AU$4.90B | 27.79 | 7.97% | 3.39% | -4.99% | 120.98% | |
58 Neutral | AU$6.11B | 17.27 | 8.96% | 4.40% | 5.89% | 21.43% | |
53 Neutral | AU$2.65B | 89.66 | 2.80% | 4.46% | 10.18% | -64.24% |
* Industrials Sector Average
AU:AZJ
Aurizon Holdings
3.62
0.53
17.23%
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Aurizon Holdings Corporate Events
Aurizon Releases 2026 Annual Report and Sets October AGM Date
Aug 17, 2026
Aurizon has released its 2026 Annual Report, taking advantage of regulatory relief that allows it to lodge the document electronically with the ASX without separate submission to the corporate regulator. Shareholders who have opted for physical de...
Aurizon Wins Major Long-Term Queensland Coal Haulage Deal with BMA
Aug 16, 2026
Aurizon has secured a new long-term, performance-based coal haulage contract with BMA, the BHP Mitsubishi Alliance, covering metallurgical coal from multiple Bowen Basin mines including Goonyella Riverside, Broadmeadow, Peak Downs, Saraji and Cava...
Aurizon Network Files 2026 Full-Year Report with ASX
Aug 16, 2026
Aurizon Network Pty Ltd has released its Annual Financial Report for the year ended 30 June 2026, lodging the full year report with the ASX via electronic submission. The publication of the report provides investors and stakeholders with updated f...
Aurizon Publishes FY2026 Full-Year Results Presentation
Aug 16, 2026
Aurizon Holdings has released its full-year FY2026 results presentation to the market, signalling the completion of another financial reporting cycle. The materials are being used as the basis for an analyst and investor briefing, underlining the ...
Aurizon Announces Interim Dividend for Half-Year to June 2026
Aug 16, 2026
Aurizon Holdings has declared an interim dividend of AUD 0.105 per ordinary fully paid share for the six-month period ended 30 June 2026. The ASX-listed rail freight operator has set an ex-dividend date of 31 August 2026, a record date of 1 Septem...
Aurizon Files FY2026 Preliminary Financial Report with ASX
Aug 16, 2026
Aurizon Holdings has lodged its Appendix 4E preliminary financial report for the year ended 30 June 2026 with the ASX, signaling the release of its latest annual financial results to the market. The filing, authorised by the Board and signed by th...
Aurizon Sets Date for FY2026 Results and Investor Briefing
Jul 22, 2026
Aurizon Holdings has scheduled the release of its FY2026 financial results for Monday, 17 August 2026, underscoring an important upcoming disclosure for investors and analysts tracking the rail freight operator’s performance. The company wil...
Aurizon Issues New Shares Following Conversion of Unquoted Securities
Jul 7, 2026
Aurizon Holdings has notified the market of the issue of 44,304 ordinary fully paid shares following the conversion or exercise of previously unquoted equity securities. The new shares, issued on June 30, 2026, reflect the transition of unquoted o...
Aurizon Appoints New Director Andrew Adam With No Initial Shareholding
Jul 2, 2026
Aurizon Holdings has appointed Andrew Adam as a director effective 1 July 2026, and lodged an initial director’s interest notice with the ASX confirming the change. The filing reports that Adam currently holds no relevant interests in Aurizo...
Aurizon Adds Veteran Transport Executive Andrew Adam to Board
Jun 25, 2026
Aurizon has appointed Andrew Adam as a new Non-Executive Director, effective 1 July 2026, bringing more than 30 years of transport and logistics experience across ports, rail and intermodal freight. Adam currently chairs Aries Rail and sits on the...
Mondrian Investment Partners Exits Substantial Holder Position in Aurizon
Jun 16, 2026
Aurizon Holdings has disclosed that Mondrian Investment Partners Limited, acting as a fund manager, has ceased to be a substantial shareholder in the company as of 12 June 2026. The change reflects that Mondrian no longer holds a significant votin...
Australian Retirement Trust exits substantial holder status in Aurizon Holdings
May 26, 2026
Australian Retirement Trust Pty Ltd has notified Aurizon Holdings that it has ceased to be a substantial shareholder in the rail freight operator as of 22 May 2026. The change reflects a reduction in the fund’s relevant interest in Aurizon&#...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.