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Atlas Arteria
(Sydney:ALX)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
AU$5.50
▲(9.13% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/04/26
The score reflects improving financial performance—especially stronger 2025 cash generation and a reasonably managed balance sheet—offset by inconsistent underlying operating profitability. Earnings call takeaways are balanced: stable distribution guidance and solid operational metrics are tempered by the French TST and regulatory uncertainty. Technicals are mildly constructive but not strongly bullish, while valuation is held back by a high P/E despite a high dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Strengthened cash generation
A meaningful step-up in operating and free cash flow in 2025 improves funding of distributions, capex and refinancing needs. Strong cash conversion reduces reliance on external financing, increases resilience to shocks and supports the company's payout policy over the next few years.
Negative Factors
French Temporary Supplemental Tax (TST)
An extended supplemental tax materially lowers distributable cash and reduces near-term free cash flow coverage. If the tax or similar measures persist, they can structurally compress returns from French assets, constrain reinvestment capacity and elevate policy risk for distributions.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strengthened cash generation
A meaningful step-up in operating and free cash flow in 2025 improves funding of distributions, capex and refinancing needs. Strong cash conversion reduces reliance on external financing, increases resilience to shocks and supports the company's payout policy over the next few years.
Read all positive factors
Atlas Arteria (ALX) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$7.15B
Dividend Yield7.88%
Average Volume (3M)2.65M
Price to Earnings (P/E)33.1
Beta (1Y)0.36
Revenue Growth9.66%
EPS Growth-18.07%
CountryAU
Employees50
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryIndustrial - Infrastructure Operations
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.15
Shares Outstanding1,453,493,400
10 Day Avg. Volume1,765,956
30 Day Avg. Volume2,652,046
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.25
Price to Book (P/B)1.22
Price to Sales (P/S)44.25
P/FCF Ratio11.54
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$4.95Price Target Upside-1.82% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)0.29
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$197.37M
Atlas Arteria Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Atlas Arteria Limited specializes in the acquisition, development, and management of toll road assets. Among its key holdings is a 13.4% equity stake in Toll Road Investors Partnership II (TRIP II), the concessionaire responsible for the 22-kilome...
How the Company Makes Money
Atlas Arteria primarily makes money by collecting toll revenues from motorists using its concessioned toll roads. Under its operating model, revenue is driven mainly by (1) traffic volumes (the number of vehicles using the roads), and (2) the toll...
Atlas Arteria Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a balanced picture: strong underlying operational performance (9.4% revenue and 9.3% EBITDA growth, stable 75% margin, robust Dulles traffic) and maintained distributions ($0.40 for 2025 and 2026) contrast with material near-term headwinds from the French Temporary Supplemental Tax, slightly lower cash receipts (-2% to $549M), localized traffic declines, elevated one-off costs and regulatory uncertainty around French concession retendering. Management emphasized portfolio resilience, a disciplined capital-allocation framework and flexibility in funding growth, but the tax and regulatory risks temper near-term free cash flow visibility.Positive Updates
Revenue and EBITDA Growth
Proportional toll revenue rose 9.4% and proportional EBITDA increased 9.3% year-over-year, supported by traffic growth, CPI-linked toll increases and favorable FX movements; consolidated total revenue (Dulles + Warnow roll-up) up ~10%.
Negative Updates
Temporary Supplemental Tax (TST) Impact
The French Temporary Supplemental Tax (TST) implemented in 2025 and extended into 2026 materially reduced cash flows and drove a decline in the share of profit from equity-accounted investments; this contributed to lower cash received from businesses.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and EBITDA Growth
Proportional toll revenue rose 9.4% and proportional EBITDA increased 9.3% year-over-year, supported by traffic growth, CPI-linked toll increases and favorable FX movements; consolidated total revenue (Dulles + Warnow roll-up) up ~10%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Atlas Arteria confirmed a stable distribution of $0.40 per security for 2025 (delivered) and for 2026, reiterating its 90%–110% of free cash flow payout policy while noting 2025 was above that range and 2026 could sit at the top or slightly outside the range due to the French Temporary Supplemental Tax (TST) extension; management expects to grow free cash flow over the next few years. The guidance is supported by strong operational results—proportional toll revenue +9.4%, proportional EBITDA +9.3% with a 75% EBITDA margin, total revenue +10%—and traffic trends (APRR +1.4%, ADELAC +1.5%, Warnow −3%, Chicago Skyway −0.3%, Dulles Greenway +8.2%). Key financial metrics include cash received from businesses $549m (−2% vs 2024), distributions paid $580m (≈ $0.40 per security), corporate available cash $151m (end‑2025), and $1.4bn of bonds/notes priced at APRR and Skyway; risk management actions include a zero‑cost, rolling 12‑month cap‑and‑collar FX hedge on euro distributions. Management expects corporate costs in 2026 to be in line with 2025, plans $5–10m p.a. of growth‑related spend over the next 2–3 years (funded from cash), and flags Skyway long‑term CapEx of ~$11m p.a. (medium‑term slightly higher).Atlas Arteria Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 160.00M | 145.00M | 134.00M | 118.24M | 100.52M |
| Gross Profit | 13.50M | 138.70M | 16.40M | 116.00K | -9.05M |
| EBITDA | 64.40M | 106.30M | 425.70M | 63.07M | -11.95M |
| Net Income | 259.50M | 335.90M | 323.50M | 266.96M | 163.70M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 7.67B | 8.26B | 8.04B | 8.33B | 5.22B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 274.40M | 351.50M | 305.30M | 521.66M | 229.39M |
| Total Debt | 1.75B | 1.85B | 1.72B | 1.74B | 1.65B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.87B | 1.95B | 1.81B | 1.84B | 1.72B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.80B | 3.34B | 6.24B | 6.49B | 3.50B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 613.40M | 92.10M | 712.80M | 473.14M | 38.56M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 614.00M | 93.20M | 84.70M | 473.50M | 40.03M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -600.00K | 633.00M | 631.70M | -3.01B | 304.05M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -681.20M | -683.80M | -682.10M | 2.58B | -374.71M |
Atlas Arteria Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | AU$26.13B | 20.44 | 28.67% | 3.41% | 5.29% | 15.50% | |
72 Outperform | AU$7.00B | 20.50 | 7.42% | 4.40% | 5.89% | 21.43% | |
64 Neutral | AU$7.15B | 33.06 | 3.46% | 7.59% | 9.66% | -18.07% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
53 Neutral | AU$2.65B | 88.81 | 2.80% | 4.46% | 10.18% | -64.24% | |
52 Neutral | AU$43.56B | 118.64 | 5.32% | 4.75% | ― | 174.53% |
* Industrials Sector Average
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Atlas Arteria
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Atlas Arteria Corporate Events
Atlas Arteria abandons planned sale of Germany’s Warnow Tunnel
Aug 3, 2026
Atlas Arteria has ended exclusive talks with French construction group Eiffage over a potential all‑cash sale of its 100 per cent stake in Germany’s Warnow Tunnel. After concluding financial discussions, the parties have agreed that th...
Atlas Arteria sets date for H1 2026 results and investor webcast
Jul 28, 2026
Atlas Arteria will release its half-year results for the period ended 30 June 2026 on 27 August 2026, accompanied by a live audio webcast briefing for analysts and investors hosted by its chief executive and chief financial officer. The planned pr...
Atlas Arteria Director Boosts Equity Stake After Incentive Vesting
Jul 24, 2026
Atlas Arteria has disclosed a significant change in director Hugh Wehby’s interests in the company’s stapled securities following an incentive-related deemed change of control. His previously held rights and performance rights have ves...
Atlas Arteria cancels 351,515 performance rights under ALXAL
Jul 24, 2026
Atlas Arteria has notified the market of the cessation of 351,515 performance rights, recorded under ASX security code ALXAL, following a cancellation agreed between the company and the relevant holder. The change, effective 22 July 2026, slightly...
Atlas Arteria Reports Cessation of 80,497 Performance Rights
Jul 24, 2026
Atlas Arteria has notified the market of the cessation of 80,497 performance rights, identified under ASX security code ALXAL, effective 22 July 2026. The company lodged the change in issued capital as an Appendix 3H, indicating an adjustment to i...
Atlas Arteria lapses 2,067 performance rights after unmet conditions
Jul 24, 2026
Atlas Arteria has notified the market that 2,067 performance rights under its ASX-listed equity arrangements have lapsed after the specified conditions were not met or became incapable of being satisfied. The cessation of these conditional rights ...
Atlas Arteria Seeks ASX Quotation for New Employee Incentive Securities
Jul 24, 2026
Atlas Arteria has applied to the ASX for quotation of 2,235,744 fully paid stapled securities under code ALX, issued on 22 July 2026. The new securities, arising from an employee incentive scheme, will be quoted on the exchange, modestly increasin...
Atlas Arteria Discloses Director Debra Goodin’s Exit and Final Shareholdings
Jul 8, 2026
Atlas Arteria has announced that Debra Goodin has ceased to be a director of both Atlas Arteria Limited and Atlas Arteria International Limited as of 7 July 2026. In her final director’s interest notice to the ASX, Goodin disclosed that she ...
IFM Tightens Grip on Atlas Arteria as Chair Retires and Board Tightens Governance
Jul 7, 2026
Atlas Arteria has confirmed the close of IFM Global Infrastructure Fund’s off-market takeover offer, with IFM’s bidding vehicle now controlling 67.43% of voting power in the toll road operator. The move ushers in a pivotal period for A...
IFM Lifts Stake in Atlas Arteria as Takeover Offer Advances
Jul 7, 2026
Atlas Arteria has received an updated notice of change of interests from Diamond Infra 1 Pty Ltd, a wholly owned subsidiary of IFM Global Infrastructure Fund, in connection with IFM’s off-market takeover offer for all Atlas Arteria securitie...
State Street Group Ceases to Be Substantial Holder in Atlas Arteria
Jul 6, 2026
State Street Corporation and a group of its global asset management subsidiaries have lodged a notice confirming they have ceased to be substantial holders in Atlas Arteria Limited. The filing, made under Australia’s Corporations Act, reflec...
IFM tightens grip on Atlas Arteria as it slams US$100m OTPP deal
Jul 1, 2026
IFM Global Infrastructure Fund’s bid vehicle Diamond Infraco 1 has lifted its stake in Atlas Arteria to more than 57 per cent, cementing control in its hostile takeover campaign for the toll road operator. The bidder is urging remaining inve...
Atlas Arteria Board Hardens Stance Against IFM Takeover Bid
Jun 29, 2026
Atlas Arteria has lodged a sixth supplementary target’s statement with regulators and the market in response to IFM Global Infrastructure Fund’s off‑market takeover bid for all remaining stapled securities in the company. The lat...
Atlas Arteria Chair to Retire as IFM Takeover Offer Closes
Jun 29, 2026
Atlas Arteria has announced the retirement of independent chair Debbie Goodin from the boards of Atlas Arteria Limited and Atlas Arteria International Limited, effective 7 July 2026, coinciding with the close of IFM Global Infrastructure Fund̵...
Atlas Arteria Buys Out Chicago Skyway Put Option and Pauses Sale Plan
Jun 29, 2026
Atlas Arteria has reached an agreement with Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan to extinguish the latter’s put option over its 33.33% stake in Chicago Skyway in exchange for a US$100 million payment funded by cash and corporate debt. The mo...
Atlas Arteria Extends IFM Takeover Timeline as Bidder Passes 50%
Jun 23, 2026
Atlas Arteria has acknowledged that IFM Investors’ subsidiary Diamond Infraco 1 has automatically extended its takeover offer by 14 days to 7 July 2026, after the bidder’s voting power in the company rose above 50%. The extension under...
IFM-backed Diamond Infraco Extends Atlas Arteria Takeover After Passing 50%
Jun 23, 2026
Diamond Infraco 1, a wholly owned subsidiary of IFM Global Infrastructure Fund, has automatically extended its off‑market takeover offer for all Atlas Arteria shares it does not already own after its voting power in the toll road operator ex...
IFM unit lifts stake in Atlas Arteria above 48% as it pushes final A$5.10 bid
Jun 23, 2026
Atlas Arteria’s suitor Diamond Infraco 1, a subsidiary of IFM Global Infrastructure Fund, has issued a tenth supplementary bidder’s statement as it presses ahead with its unconditional takeover offer at A$5.10 per security. The bidder ...
Atlas Arteria Files Fifth Supplementary Statement Urging Investors to Reject IFM Bid
Jun 22, 2026
Atlas Arteria has lodged its fifth supplementary target’s statement with Australian regulators as part of its response to an off-market takeover bid by Diamond Infraco 1, a subsidiary of IFM Global Infrastructure Fund. The document supplemen...
IFM-backed Diamond Infraco lifts Atlas Arteria stake above 40% and holds firm on A$5.10 offer
Jun 22, 2026
Diamond Infraco 1, a subsidiary of IFM Global Infrastructure Fund, has issued a ninth supplementary bidder’s statement for its takeover offer of Atlas Arteria, confirming a best-and-final cash bid of A$5.10 per security inclusive of distribu...
IFM-backed Diamond Infraco declares Atlas Arteria takeover offer unconditional
Jun 18, 2026
Diamond Infraco 1, a wholly owned subsidiary of IFM Global Infrastructure Fund, has confirmed that all regulatory approvals and other defeating conditions attached to its off-market takeover bid for Atlas Arteria have been satisfied or waived. As ...
IFM-backed bidder makes unconditional, best-and-final push for Atlas Arteria
Jun 17, 2026
Diamond Infraco 1 Pty Ltd, a subsidiary of IFM Global Infrastructure Fund, has declared its A$5.10 per security cash bid for Atlas Arteria as best and final in the absence of a competing proposal, and has now made the offer unconditional. The bidd...
Atlas Arteria Files Third Supplementary Response Urging Rejection of IFM Takeover Bid
Jun 16, 2026
Atlas Arteria has lodged a third supplementary target’s statement in response to an off-market takeover bid from IFM Global Infrastructure Fund’s subsidiary Diamond Infraco 1. The document, provided to the ASX, ASIC, the bidder and sec...
Diamond Infraco Extends Atlas Arteria Takeover Offer and Clears Key Conditions
Jun 10, 2026
Diamond Infraco 1 Pty Ltd, a subsidiary of IFM Global Infrastructure Fund, has further extended its takeover offer period for Atlas Arteria, pushing the closing time to 7:00 p.m. Sydney time on 25 June 2026, with all references to the former 18 Ju...
IFM-backed bidder clears key hurdles in Atlas Arteria takeover push
Jun 8, 2026
Diamond Infraco 1 Pty Ltd, a wholly owned vehicle of IFM Global Infrastructure Fund, has confirmed that a key regulatory approval under the EU Foreign Subsidies Regulation for its takeover offer for Atlas Arteria has been satisfied, freeing the bi...
Diamond Infraco Extends Takeover Offer Period for Atlas Arteria
Jun 3, 2026
Diamond Infraco 1 Pty Ltd has issued a fourth supplementary bidder’s statement for its takeover offer for Atlas Arteria, extending the offer period to 7:00 p.m. Sydney time on 18 June 2026, with all references to the previous 11 June 2026 cl...
Atlas Arteria Board Reasserts Call to Reject IFM Takeover Bid
Jun 1, 2026
Atlas Arteria has lodged a supplementary target’s statement with regulators and the market in response to the latest update from IFM’s bidding vehicle, Diamond Infraco 1, which is pursuing an off‑market takeover for all Atlas Art...
IFM’s Diamond Infraco Intensifies Critique of Atlas Arteria Takeover Defence
Jun 1, 2026
In the latest escalation of its takeover bid, IFM Global Infrastructure Fund’s vehicle Diamond Infraco 1 has issued a third supplementary bidder’s statement challenging Atlas Arteria’s defence and the independent expert’s v...
IFM-backed Diamond Infraco clears key approvals in Atlas Arteria takeover battle
May 26, 2026
Diamond Infraco 1 Pty Ltd, a wholly owned subsidiary of IFM Global Infrastructure Fund, has issued a second supplementary bidder’s statement in relation to its takeover offer for toll road operator Atlas Arteria, following the release of Atl...
Atlas Arteria lodges Target’s Statement on IFM takeover bid
May 26, 2026
Atlas Arteria has lodged its formal Target’s Statement in response to an off-market takeover bid from Diamond Infraco 1, a vehicle of IFM Global Infrastructure Fund, which is seeking to acquire all stapled securities it does not already own ...
Takeovers Panel Rejects IFM Affiliate’s Bid Disclosure Challenge Over Atlas Arteria
May 24, 2026
Australia’s Takeovers Panel has declined to conduct proceedings on an application by Diamond Infraco 1, a unit of IFM Global Infrastructure Fund, which is currently pursuing an off-market hostile takeover of toll road operator Atlas Arteria....
Atlas Arteria weighs options for Chicago Skyway stake after ROFO expiry
May 24, 2026
Atlas Arteria has confirmed that the acceptance period for the Right of First Offer issued to Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan over its interest in Chicago Skyway has expired without a transaction being concluded. The company’s independe...
Atlas Arteria boosts director equity under new incentive plans
May 22, 2026
Atlas Arteria has disclosed a change in the interests of director Hugh Wehby following the issuance of additional equity-based incentives. The filing details that Wehby holds his stapled securities indirectly through the company’s employee s...
Atlas Arteria Issues Over 1.1 Million Unquoted Performance Rights Under Incentive Plan
May 22, 2026
Atlas Arteria has notified the market of the issue of 1,146,646 unquoted performance rights under its employee incentive scheme, effective 22 May 2026. The move reinforces the company’s use of equity-based remuneration to align staff interes...
Atlas Arteria Performance Rights Lapse Trims Potential Equity Dilution
May 22, 2026
Atlas Arteria has notified the market of a cessation of certain equity‑linked securities under its capital structure. The company reported that 48,605 performance rights, trading under the ASX code ALXAL, have lapsed because the conditions a...
Atlas Arteria Seeks ASX Quotation for New Employee Incentive Securities
May 22, 2026
Atlas Arteria has applied for quotation on the ASX of 228,381 fully paid stapled securities under code ALX, issued on May 21, 2026 under an employee incentive scheme. The move modestly increases the company’s free float and reflects ongoing ...
Takeovers Panel clears path for IFM bid terms in Atlas Arteria takeover battle
May 21, 2026
Australia’s Takeovers Panel has declined to declare unacceptable circumstances in relation to Atlas Arteria’s affairs, after the toll‑road group challenged aspects of an off‑market takeover bid from Diamond Infraco 1, a uni...
Atlas Arteria Releases Poll-Based Voting Results from 2026 AGMs
May 13, 2026
Atlas Arteria has reported the outcomes of resolutions put to securityholders at the 2026 Annual General Meetings of Atlas Arteria Limited and Atlas Arteria International Limited. All resolutions at both meetings were conducted and decided by way ...
Atlas Arteria outlines AGM strategy, takeover response and U.S. ownership limits
May 12, 2026
Atlas Arteria has released the prepared addresses of its chair, Debbie Goodin, and CEO, Hugh Wehby, for its 2026 annual general meetings, along with proxy voting results, providing investors with insight into current governance outcomes. The speec...
Takeovers Panel reviews IFM-linked bid and Chicago Skyway terms at Atlas Arteria
May 12, 2026
Atlas Arteria faces an off-market takeover bid from Diamond Infraco 1, a subsidiary of IFM Global Infrastructure Fund, which already holds a 34.48% interest and has two nominee directors on the board. The company’s governance arrangements ar...
IFM-backed Diamond Infraco dispatches takeover documents for Atlas Arteria
May 11, 2026
Diamond Infraco 1 Pty Ltd, a wholly owned subsidiary of IFM Global Infrastructure Fund, has formally dispatched its off‑market takeover offer for all stapled securities in Atlas Arteria that it does not already own. The bidder’s statem...
Glossary
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Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.