Atlas Arteria (AU:ALX)
ASX:ALX
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Atlas Arteria
(Sydney:ALX)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
AU$5.50
â–²(28.81% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:04/28/26
The score is driven primarily by improving financial performance—especially stronger 2025 cash generation and manageable leverage—offset by inconsistent operating profitability. Earnings-call takeaways are supportive on distributions and operational momentum but tempered by French tax and regulatory risks. Technicals are supportive (price above key averages) but lack strong momentum confirmation, while valuation is mixed with an attractive yield but a high P/E.
Positive Factors
Strengthening cash generation and free cash flow
Material improvement in operating and free cash flow in 2025 strengthens the company’s ability to fund distributions, refinance maturing debt, and finance modest growth. Improved cash conversion reduces reliance on external funding and supports the 90%–110% FCF payout policy despite periodic volatility.
Negative Factors
French Temporary Supplemental Tax (TST) reducing cash flows
The extended TST is a structural headwind to euro-denominated asset earnings and distributions from France, directly lowering cash received and equity-accounted profits. Its extension into 2026 creates ongoing pressure on corporate receipts and could force payout or investment trade-offs while policy remains uncertain.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strengthening cash generation and free cash flow
Material improvement in operating and free cash flow in 2025 strengthens the company’s ability to fund distributions, refinance maturing debt, and finance modest growth. Improved cash conversion reduces reliance on external funding and supports the 90%–110% FCF payout policy despite periodic volatility.
Read all positive factors
Atlas Arteria (ALX) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$6.99B
Dividend Yield8.2%
Average Volume (3M)2.65M
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.6
Beta (1Y)0.52
Revenue Growth9.66%
EPS Growth-18.07%
CountryAU
Employees50
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryIndustrial - Infrastructure Operations
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.15
Shares Outstanding1,451,029,300
10 Day Avg. Volume1,765,956
30 Day Avg. Volume2,652,046
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.26
Price to Book (P/B)1.22
Price to Sales (P/S)44.25
P/FCF Ratio11.54
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$4.77Price Target Upside11.77% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)0.29
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$191.59M
Atlas Arteria Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Atlas Arteria Limited owns, develops, and operates toll roads. It holds a 13.4% interest in 22-kilometer toll road investors partnership II (TRIP II), the concessionaire for Dulles Greenway toll road located in Virginia, the United States. The com...
How the Company Makes Money
Atlas Arteria makes money primarily by earning toll and toll-related revenue from the motorway assets in which it holds interests. Key revenue streams include: (1) Toll revenue from motorists and commercial vehicles using its toll roads (for examp...
Atlas Arteria Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a balanced picture: strong underlying operational performance (9.4% revenue and 9.3% EBITDA growth, stable 75% margin, robust Dulles traffic) and maintained distributions ($0.40 for 2025 and 2026) contrast with material near-term headwinds from the French Temporary Supplemental Tax, slightly lower cash receipts (-2% to $549M), localized traffic declines, elevated one-off costs and regulatory uncertainty around French concession retendering. Management emphasized portfolio resilience, a disciplined capital-allocation framework and flexibility in funding growth, but the tax and regulatory risks temper near-term free cash flow visibility.Positive Updates
Revenue and EBITDA Growth
Proportional toll revenue rose 9.4% and proportional EBITDA increased 9.3% year-over-year, supported by traffic growth, CPI-linked toll increases and favorable FX movements; consolidated total revenue (Dulles + Warnow roll-up) up ~10%.
Negative Updates
Temporary Supplemental Tax (TST) Impact
The French Temporary Supplemental Tax (TST) implemented in 2025 and extended into 2026 materially reduced cash flows and drove a decline in the share of profit from equity-accounted investments; this contributed to lower cash received from businesses.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and EBITDA Growth
Proportional toll revenue rose 9.4% and proportional EBITDA increased 9.3% year-over-year, supported by traffic growth, CPI-linked toll increases and favorable FX movements; consolidated total revenue (Dulles + Warnow roll-up) up ~10%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Atlas Arteria confirmed a stable distribution of $0.40 per security for 2025 (delivered) and for 2026, reiterating its 90%–110% of free cash flow payout policy while noting 2025 was above that range and 2026 could sit at the top or slightly outside the range due to the French Temporary Supplemental Tax (TST) extension; management expects to grow free cash flow over the next few years. The guidance is supported by strong operational results—proportional toll revenue +9.4%, proportional EBITDA +9.3% with a 75% EBITDA margin, total revenue +10%—and traffic trends (APRR +1.4%, ADELAC +1.5%, Warnow −3%, Chicago Skyway −0.3%, Dulles Greenway +8.2%). Key financial metrics include cash received from businesses $549m (−2% vs 2024), distributions paid $580m (≈ $0.40 per security), corporate available cash $151m (end‑2025), and $1.4bn of bonds/notes priced at APRR and Skyway; risk management actions include a zero‑cost, rolling 12‑month cap‑and‑collar FX hedge on euro distributions. Management expects corporate costs in 2026 to be in line with 2025, plans $5–10m p.a. of growth‑related spend over the next 2–3 years (funded from cash), and flags Skyway long‑term CapEx of ~$11m p.a. (medium‑term slightly higher).Atlas Arteria Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 160.00M | 145.00M | 134.00M | 118.24M | 100.52M |
| Gross Profit | 13.50M | 138.70M | 16.40M | 116.00K | -9.05M |
| EBITDA | 64.40M | 106.30M | 425.70M | 63.07M | -11.95M |
| Net Income | 259.50M | 335.90M | 323.50M | 266.96M | 163.70M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 7.67B | 8.26B | 8.04B | 8.33B | 5.22B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 274.40M | 351.50M | 305.30M | 521.66M | 229.39M |
| Total Debt | 1.75B | 1.85B | 1.72B | 1.74B | 1.65B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.87B | 1.95B | 1.81B | 1.84B | 1.72B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.80B | 3.34B | 6.24B | 6.49B | 3.50B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 613.40M | 92.10M | 712.80M | 473.14M | 38.56M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 614.00M | 93.20M | 84.70M | 473.50M | 40.03M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -600.00K | 633.00M | 631.70M | -3.01B | 304.05M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -681.20M | -683.80M | -682.10M | 2.58B | -374.71M |
Atlas Arteria Technical Analysis
Positive
4.27
Price Trends
4.49
Positive
4.54
Positive
4.65
Positive
Market Momentum
0.10
Positive
71.42
Negative
83.33
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:ALX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 4.27 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.73, below the 50-day MA of 4.49, and below the 200-day MA of 4.65, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.10 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 71.42 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.33 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:ALX.
Atlas Arteria Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | AU$23.74B | 10.05 | 28.67% | 2.69% | 5.29% | 15.50% | |
72 Outperform | AU$7.02B | 6.76 | 7.42% | 4.29% | 4.70% | -20.38% | |
64 Neutral | AU$6.99B | 11.62 | 3.46% | 8.20% | 9.66% | -18.07% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
59 Neutral | AU$45.18B | 37.11 | 5.32% | 4.47% | 0.65% | 532.10% | |
58 Neutral | AU$8.87B | 9.81 | 7.13% | 2.07% | 18.00% | -2.14% | |
51 Neutral | AU$2.60B | -44.79 | 2.80% | 4.73% | 10.18% | -64.24% |
* Industrials Sector Average
AU:ALX
Atlas Arteria
4.87
<0.01
0.10%
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Atlas Arteria Corporate Events
Atlas Arteria Sets Up Independent Board to Review IFM’s Unsolicited Takeover Bid
Apr 27, 2026
Atlas Arteria has received an unsolicited off-market takeover offer from IFM to acquire all securities it does not already own, at an initial cash price of A$4.75 per security, representing a 10% premium to the last close. The bidder has indicated...
IFM-backed Diamond Infraco launches conditional cash takeover bid for Atlas Arteria
Apr 26, 2026
Diamond Infraco 1 Pty Ltd, a wholly owned subsidiary of IFM Global Infrastructure Fund, has launched an off‑market cash takeover bid for all Atlas Arteria stapled securities it does not already own. The offer is structured at A$4.75 per secu...
Atlas Arteria posts flat Q1 toll revenue amid mixed global traffic trends
Apr 20, 2026
Atlas Arteria reported a marginal 0.1% rise in proportionate toll revenue for the first quarter of 2026 versus a year earlier, or 1.6% excluding foreign exchange effects. The group noted mixed traffic trends across its network, with heavy vehicle ...
Atlas Arteria Performance Rights Lapse After Conditions Not Met
Apr 20, 2026
Atlas Arteria has reported the cessation of 20,584 performance rights under its ALXAL security code after the rights lapsed on 31 March 2026. The lapse occurred because the conditions attached to these conditional rights were not met or became inc...
Atlas Arteria Releases 2026 AGM Materials and Highlights U.S. Ownership Restrictions
Apr 6, 2026
Atlas Arteria has released materials for its 2026 annual general meetings, including the chairs’ letter, formal meeting notices and a proxy form for securityholders. These documents, which are also available on the company’s website, s...
Atlas Arteria seeks ASX quotation for new employee incentive securities
Mar 27, 2026
Atlas Arteria has applied to the ASX for quotation of 195,637 fully paid stapled securities issued under an employee incentive scheme, with the new securities dated 23 March 2026 and subject to U.S. selling restrictions. The modest enlargement of ...
Atlas Arteria declares 20c H2 2025 distribution to stapled securityholders
Mar 19, 2026
Atlas Arteria has declared a distribution of 20.0 Australian cents per stapled security for the six months to 31 December 2025, to be paid on or around 9 April 2026. The unfranked payment will be made by Atlas Arteria Limited and Atlas Arteria Int...
Atlas Arteria Sets AUD 0.20 Half-Year Distribution for December 2025 Period
Mar 19, 2026
Atlas Arteria has declared an ordinary distribution of AUD 0.20 per stapled security for the six-month period ending 31 December 2025. The ex-date is set for 25 March 2026, with a record date of 26 March and payment to be made on 9 April 2026.The ...
Atlas Arteria Sets 2026 AGM Dates and Director Nomination Deadline
Mar 15, 2026
Atlas Arteria has scheduled its 2026 Annual General Meetings as concurrent hybrid events, to be held on 13 May in Melbourne and 12 May in Bermuda, starting at 10am Melbourne time. The company has set 5pm Melbourne time on 23 March 2026 as the dead...
Atlas Arteria Backs Virginia Bill Easing Multi-Year Toll Approvals
Mar 11, 2026
Atlas Arteria has welcomed a bill passed by the Virginia legislature that would allow the State Corporation Commission to approve multi-year toll increases and impose firm timelines on toll rate case decisions. Expected to take effect in July subj...
Atlas Arteria Performance Rights Lapse Trims Potential Equity Dilution
Mar 4, 2026
Atlas Arteria has disclosed the lapse of 423,693 performance rights, recorded as ALXAL securities, after the conditions attached to these rights were not met or became incapable of being satisfied. The cessation, effective 26 February 2026, repres...
Atlas Arteria issues 2025 Investor Reference Pack and outlines U.S. ownership limits
Feb 25, 2026
Atlas Arteria has released its Investor Reference Pack for the year ended 31 December 2025, providing shareholders and analysts with updated information on the group’s global toll road portfolio and financial reference data. The disclosure u...
Atlas Arteria Releases 2025 Full-Year Results Presentation
Feb 25, 2026
Atlas Arteria has released its results presentation for the year ended 31 December 2025, providing investors with updated financial and operational information on its global toll road portfolio. The announcement underscores the company’s con...
Atlas Arteria grows 2025 toll revenue, holds 40c payout despite French tax hit
Feb 25, 2026
Atlas Arteria reported proportional toll revenue of $2.01 billion and proportional EBITDA of $1.51 billion for 2025, with both metrics growing around 9%, supported by steady traffic, toll increases and favourable foreign exchange movements. Statut...
Atlas Arteria Faces Extended French Tax but Reaffirms Distribution Targets
Feb 3, 2026
Atlas Arteria has flagged that the French Parliament’s adoption of the 2026 Finance Law will extend the temporary supplemental tax first introduced in 2025, contrary to earlier expectations that it would be a one‑year measure. The tax,...
Atlas Arteria lifts APRR and AREA tolls under French concession terms
Feb 1, 2026
Atlas Arteria has announced that tolls on its French motorway networks APRR and AREA have risen by 0.94% and 0.95% respectively from 1 February 2026, in line with the provisions of their concession contracts. The modest increases, tied to contract...
Atlas Arteria Posts Nearly 10% Toll Revenue Growth on Strong 2025 Traffic
Jan 29, 2026
Atlas Arteria reported a 9.5% increase in proportionate toll revenue for the fourth quarter of 2025 and 9.4% growth for the full year compared with 2024, supported by toll increases across most assets, favourable foreign exchange movements and bro...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.