Atlas Arteria (ALX) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$6.91B
• Dividend Yield: 8.2%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.65M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 26.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.62
• Revenue Growth: 9.78%
• EPS Growth: 0.19%
• Country: AU
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Industrial - Infrastructure Operations
• EPS (TTM): 0.30
• Shares Outstanding: 1,450,833,700
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,765,956
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,652,046
• PEG Ratio: -1.26
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.22
• Price to Sales (P/S): 44.25
• P/FCF Ratio: 11.54
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: AU$4.94
• Price Target Upside: 3.82% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.32
• Revenue Forecast (FY): AU$201.49M

• Rating: 64 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$5.00 ▲(5.04% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/28/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/28/26

The score is driven mainly by improving cash generation and a reasonably positioned balance sheet, plus supportive (but risk-aware) distribution guidance from the earnings call. Offsetting factors are inconsistent underlying operating profitability, only neutral technical momentum with longer-term moving-average pressure, and an elevated P/E despite the high dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Strong cash generation

Materially stronger operating and free cash flow in 2025 improves funding flexibility for distributions, maintenance and targeted growth. Durable cash conversion reduces dependence on capital markets, supports the 90%–110% payout framework and cushions debt servicing across the concession cycle.

Committed distribution policy

A clear, high-distribution policy anchored to free cash flow provides predictable returns and enforces cash discipline. Over time this aligns management incentives with cash generation, supports investor income expectations and signals capital-allocation consistency despite near-term headwinds.

Resilient portfolio and margins

Diversified toll assets, CPI-linked toll mechanics and high ~75% EBITDA margins create resilient, largely fixed-cost cash flows. This structural margin cushion helps absorb localized traffic dips and funds maintenance and debt, underpinning long-term concession economics.

Negative Factors

French Temporary Supplemental Tax headwind

A structural tax extension on French motorway returns directly reduces distributable cash from APRR investments and can persist across reporting periods. This alters long-term cash flow profiles, weakens predictability of euro distributions and complicates reinvestment and bidding economics.

Inconsistent operating profitability

Negative or volatile EBIT despite positive net income implies reliance on non-operating items, FX or one-offs. This undermines sustainable operating leverage, increases sensitivity to cost or traffic shocks, and makes forecasting core earnings and coverage metrics less reliable.

Debt-supported balance sheet and volatility

Long-dated concession assets rely on meaningful project-level and corporate debt. While leverage is moderate, asset and equity volatility plus upcoming refinancing needs increase funding risk. Persistent debt exposure raises sensitivity to rate cycles and constrains agility for opportunistic investments.

Atlas Arteria Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Atlas Arteria Limited owns, develops, and operates toll roads. It holds a 13.4% interest in 22-kilometer toll road investors partnership II (TRIP II), the concessionaire for Dulles Greenway toll road located in Virginia, the United States. The company was formerly known as Macquarie Atlas Roads Limited and changed its name to Atlas Arteria Limited in May 2018. Atlas Arteria Limited was incorporated in 2009 and is based in Melbourne, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

Atlas Arteria generates revenue primarily through the collection of tolls from the vehicles that use its managed road networks. This revenue model is underpinned by long-term concession agreements that grant the company the rights to operate and maintain these toll roads for extended periods. Key revenue streams include direct toll collections, which are influenced by traffic volume and toll rates, as well as ancillary revenue from services related to the road infrastructure, such as advertising and service areas. The company also benefits from partnerships with local governments and other stakeholders that enhance its operational capabilities and expand its asset base, contributing to its overall earnings.

Atlas Arteria Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Cash flow is the key strength (operating cash flow and free cash flow strengthened materially in 2025), and the balance sheet appears reasonably positioned with moderate leverage and positive ROE. The main offset is mixed earnings quality: EBIT has been negative in most periods and margins have swung sharply, pointing to uneven underlying operating profitability despite positive net income.

Income Statement

Revenue has rebounded strongly, with 2025 growth accelerating meaningfully versus the prior year. Profitability is mixed: net income is consistently positive in recent years (after the 2020 loss), but operating performance looks weak with EBIT negative in most periods and margins swinging sharply year-to-year, suggesting earnings are influenced by non-operating items and/or volatility in cost structure. Overall: improving top-line momentum and positive bottom-line, but limited consistency in underlying operating profitability.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable for the profile, with debt-to-equity generally in the moderate range and improving versus 2024. Equity remains sizable relative to assets, and returns on equity are positive in recent years (after turning negative in 2020), indicating improving value creation. Key watch-outs are balance-sheet volatility (equity and assets moving materially year to year) and the inherently debt-supported nature of infrastructure operations.

Cash Flow

Cash generation strengthened materially in 2025, with operating cash flow surging and free cash flow also rising strongly, indicating better cash conversion and funding capacity. Free cash flow is generally well-aligned with net income in most years, supporting earnings quality, although there is notable volatility (including an unusually high free-cash-flow-to-net-income relationship in 2023) that suggests period-specific drivers. Overall cash flow trends are favorable, with improved coverage of financing needs in the latest year.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	160.00M	145.00M	134.00M	118.24M	100.52M
Gross Profit	13.50M	138.70M	16.40M	116.00K	-9.05M
EBITDA	64.40M	106.30M	425.70M	63.07M	-11.95M
Net Income	259.50M	335.90M	323.50M	266.96M	163.70M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	7.67B	8.26B	8.04B	8.33B	5.22B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	274.40M	351.50M	305.30M	521.66M	229.39M
Total Debt	1.75B	1.85B	1.72B	1.74B	1.65B
Total Liabilities	1.87B	1.95B	1.81B	1.84B	1.72B
Stockholders Equity	5.80B	3.34B	6.24B	6.49B	3.50B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	613.40M	92.10M	712.80M	473.14M	38.56M
Operating Cash Flow	614.00M	93.20M	84.70M	473.50M	40.03M
Investing Cash Flow	-600.00K	633.00M	631.70M	-3.01B	304.05M
Financing Cash Flow	-681.20M	-683.80M	-682.10M	2.58B	-374.71M

Atlas Arteria Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 4.76
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:ALX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.76 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.72, below the 50-day MA of 4.81, and below the 200-day MA of 4.94, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.37 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 43.22 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:ALX.

Atlas Arteria Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AZJ	72 Outperform	$7.06B	23.54	7.03%	4.29%	3.01%	-23.84%
KLS	69 Neutral	AU$1.25B	18.72	5.78%	4.06%	9.52%	-8.76%
ALX	64 Neutral	AU$6.91B	26.61	3.78%	8.20%	9.78%	0.19%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
QUB	62 Neutral	AU$8.78B	40.19	3.82%	2.07%	28.47%	-50.19%
TCL	52 Neutral	$45.15B	94.21	1.24%	4.47%	-4.30%	-59.47%
DBI	51 Neutral	AU$2.48B	84.92	8.17%	4.73%	13.19%	14.79%

Atlas Arteria Corporate Events

Atlas Arteria issues 2025 Investor Reference Pack and outlines U.S. ownership limits

Atlas Arteria has released its Investor Reference Pack for the year ended 31 December 2025, providing shareholders and analysts with updated information on the group’s global toll road portfolio and financial reference data. The disclosure underscores the company’s emphasis on transparency and disciplined management as it continues to operate key motorway and tunnel assets across Europe and the U.S., while also reiterating restrictions on U.S. ownership of its securities under American securities and investment company laws.

The ownership and eligibility conditions for U.S.-based investors highlight the regulatory complexity facing infrastructure vehicles that are not registered under U.S. securities or investment company regimes. These constraints may limit the breadth of the company’s U.S. investor base but are designed to ensure compliance with cross-border rules as Atlas Arteria pursues long-term value from its established toll road concessions in core developed markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ALX) stock is a Hold with a A$4.80 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Atlas Arteria stock, see the AU:ALX Stock Forecast page.

Atlas Arteria Releases 2025 Full-Year Results Presentation

Atlas Arteria has released its results presentation for the year ended 31 December 2025, providing investors with updated financial and operational information on its global toll road portfolio. The announcement underscores the company’s continued focus on disciplined management and sustainable practices across its European and U.S. road assets, which remain central to its long-term value proposition for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ALX) stock is a Hold with a A$4.80 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Atlas Arteria stock, see the AU:ALX Stock Forecast page.

Atlas Arteria grows 2025 toll revenue, holds 40c payout despite French tax hit

Atlas Arteria reported proportional toll revenue of $2.01 billion and proportional EBITDA of $1.51 billion for 2025, with both metrics growing around 9%, supported by steady traffic, toll increases and favourable foreign exchange movements. Statutory net profit after tax fell to $181.8 million from $300.2 million, and operating free cash flow per security eased to 34.9 cents, both impacted by France’s Temporary Supplemental Tax.

The group reaffirmed distribution guidance of 40 cents per security for both 2025 and 2026, backed by growing free cash flow and supported by a new FX hedging program to stabilise payouts. Management sharpened its strategic focus through a streamlined leadership structure and new CEOs at Dulles Greenway and Chicago Skyway, while pursuing growth via a rate case at Dulles, the A412 project in France and positioning for upcoming French concession retenders despite a challenging political and tax environment.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ALX) stock is a Hold with a A$4.80 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Atlas Arteria stock, see the AU:ALX Stock Forecast page.

Atlas Arteria Faces Extended French Tax but Reaffirms Distribution Targets

Atlas Arteria has flagged that the French Parliament’s adoption of the 2026 Finance Law will extend the temporary supplemental tax first introduced in 2025, contrary to earlier expectations that it would be a one‑year measure. The tax, which is based on average corporate income tax due over 2025 and 2026 and scaled according to revenue thresholds, will require a 98% prepayment in December 2026 and final settlement in May 2027, potentially increasing the tax burden on its French motorway interests. Despite this additional fiscal pressure, the company has reiterated its 2025 distribution guidance of 40 cents per security and continues to target distributions of at least that level in future years, signalling confidence that growing free cash flow will be sufficient to support shareholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ALX) stock is a Hold with a A$4.58 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Atlas Arteria stock, see the AU:ALX Stock Forecast page.

Atlas Arteria lifts APRR and AREA tolls under French concession terms

Atlas Arteria has announced that tolls on its French motorway networks APRR and AREA have risen by 0.94% and 0.95% respectively from 1 February 2026, in line with the provisions of their concession contracts. The modest increases, tied to contractual mechanisms rather than discretionary pricing, are expected to support incremental revenue from the company’s key French assets, reinforcing the stability and predictability of its regulated toll road earnings for investors and other stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ALX) stock is a Hold with a A$5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Atlas Arteria stock, see the AU:ALX Stock Forecast page.

Atlas Arteria Posts Nearly 10% Toll Revenue Growth on Strong 2025 Traffic

Atlas Arteria reported a 9.5% increase in proportionate toll revenue for the fourth quarter of 2025 and 9.4% growth for the full year compared with 2024, supported by toll increases across most assets, favourable foreign exchange movements and broadly stable to strengthening traffic volumes across its portfolio. Traffic growth was led by robust performance in France, particularly on the A79 and ADELAC corridors, and by higher usage on the Dulles Greenway and Chicago Skyway, while Warnow Tunnel traffic normalised after a previously roadworks-boosted period, underscoring the group’s resilience and revenue growth potential as economic activity and congestion on alternative routes continue to support demand for its toll road assets.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ALX) stock is a Hold with a A$5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Atlas Arteria stock, see the AU:ALX Stock Forecast page.

Atlas Arteria Sets 26 February Date for 2025 Full-Year Results and Investor Briefing

Atlas Arteria has scheduled the release of its full-year results for the period ended 31 December 2025 on 26 February 2026, accompanied by a same-day briefing for analysts and investors hosted by CEO Hugh Wehby and CFO Vincent Portal-Barrault. The results presentation, to be delivered via live audio webcast and teleconference with pre-registration required for Q&A participation, underlines the company’s ongoing engagement with capital markets as it manages a geographically diversified toll road portfolio across Europe and the United States, a key factor for investors monitoring traffic performance, regulatory developments and income stability in the listed infrastructure sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ALX) stock is a Hold with a A$4.74 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Atlas Arteria stock, see the AU:ALX Stock Forecast page.

Atlas Arteria Performance Rights Lapse After Vesting Conditions Not Met

Atlas Arteria has announced the lapse of 239,560 performance rights (ASX code ALXAL) effective 31 December 2025, after the conditional rights to securities failed to meet required vesting conditions or became incapable of being satisfied. The cessation of these performance rights slightly reduces the company’s potential future issued capital and reflects the operation of its performance-based incentive structures, with limited immediate impact expected on ordinary shareholders but some implications for participants in equity incentive plans.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ALX) stock is a Hold with a A$5.09 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Atlas Arteria stock, see the AU:ALX Stock Forecast page.

Atlas Arteria Seeks Toll Increase at Dulles Greenway

Atlas Arteria has filed an application for a toll price increase at the Dulles Greenway in Virginia, seeking approval from the State Corporation Commission. This request, which follows stakeholder sessions with various Virginia state entities, proposes increases for both peak and off-peak tolls, marking the first peak toll increase request since 2019. The decision’s timing is uncertain, but if approved, the new rates will be implemented immediately, potentially impacting the company’s revenue and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ALX) stock is a Buy with a A$5.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Atlas Arteria stock, see the AU:ALX Stock Forecast page.

Atlas Arteria Announces Changes in Company Secretary Positions

Atlas Arteria has announced the appointment of Mr. Daniel Krutik as a Joint Company Secretary, effective December 15, 2025, following the resignation of Mr. Clayton McCormack. This change in leadership is expected to maintain seamless communication with the ASX, as Ms. Elisha Larkin will continue her role as Company Secretary alongside Mr. Krutik, ensuring stability in the company’s governance structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ALX) stock is a Buy with a A$5.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Atlas Arteria stock, see the AU:ALX Stock Forecast page.