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Atlas Arteria (AU:ALX)
ASX:ALX
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Atlas Arteria (ALX) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:ALX

Atlas Arteria

(Sydney:ALX)

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Neutral 64 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
AU$5.00
▲(2.67% Upside)
The overall stock score of 63.6 reflects a combination of strong financial performance in revenue growth and gross profitability, offset by challenges in cash flow stability and EBIT performance. Technical analysis suggests a neutral to slightly bearish outlook, while the high dividend yield provides some valuation appeal despite a high P/E ratio.

Atlas Arteria (ALX) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Atlas Arteria Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAtlas Arteria Limited owns, develops, and operates toll roads. It holds a 13.4% interest in 22-kilometer toll road investors partnership II (TRIP II), the concessionaire for Dulles Greenway toll road located in Virginia, the United States. The company was formerly known as Macquarie Atlas Roads Limited and changed its name to Atlas Arteria Limited in May 2018. Atlas Arteria Limited was incorporated in 2009 and is based in Melbourne, Australia.
How the Company Makes MoneyAtlas Arteria generates revenue primarily through the collection of tolls from the vehicles that use its managed road networks. This revenue model is underpinned by long-term concession agreements that grant the company the rights to operate and maintain these toll roads for extended periods. Key revenue streams include direct toll collections, which are influenced by traffic volume and toll rates, as well as ancillary revenue from services related to the road infrastructure, such as advertising and service areas. The company also benefits from partnerships with local governments and other stakeholders that enhance its operational capabilities and expand its asset base, contributing to its overall earnings.

Atlas Arteria Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Atlas Arteria shows strong revenue growth and gross profit margin, but faces challenges with EBIT performance and cash flow stability. The balance sheet is stable with moderate leverage, though there are opportunities to enhance shareholder returns.
Income Statement
75
Positive
Atlas Arteria shows a solid performance in revenue growth, with a notable increase from $134 million to $145 million. The company maintains a high gross profit margin of 95.7%, indicating strong operational efficiency. However, the lack of EBIT suggests areas for improvement in operational profitability. EBITDA margin remains robust at over 306%, reflecting strong cash generation capabilities despite EBIT challenges.
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
The balance sheet presents a mixed picture with a healthy equity base of $3.34 billion, leading to an equity ratio of 40.4%. The debt-to-equity ratio of 0.55 is moderate, suggesting a balanced capital structure. However, ROE of 10.1% could be improved to enhance shareholder returns. The company's leverage and equity position are stable but warrant attention for future growth.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Cash flow analysis reveals a significant drop in free cash flow from $712.8 million to $92.1 million, posing concerns over cash sustainability. Operating cash flow to net income ratio is unavailable, limiting insights into core cash generation. However, the company has positive free cash flow, indicating some level of financial flexibility. Improving cash flow consistency will be crucial.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue114.15M145.00M134.00M118.24M100.52M104.56M
Gross Profit40.90M138.70M16.40M116.00K-9.05M-13.55M
EBITDA70.45M106.30M425.70M63.07M-11.95M-93.68M
Net Income214.70M335.90M323.50M266.96M163.70M-99.21M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets7.96B8.26B8.04B8.33B5.22B5.27B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments290.40M351.50M305.30M521.66M229.39M260.34M
Total Debt1.70B1.85B1.72B1.74B1.65B1.55B
Total Liabilities1.84B1.95B1.81B1.84B1.72B1.63B
Stockholders Equity6.12B3.34B6.24B6.49B3.50B3.63B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow430.55M92.10M712.80M473.14M38.56M24.00M
Operating Cash Flow431.45M93.20M84.70M473.50M40.03M25.44M
Investing Cash Flow-1.20M633.00M631.70M-3.01B304.05M-976.67M
Financing Cash Flow-680.20M-683.80M-682.10M2.58B-374.71M-232.73M

Atlas Arteria Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price4.87
Price Trends
50DMA
4.99
Negative
100DMA
4.99
Negative
200DMA
4.88
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
>-0.01
Negative
RSI
45.47
Neutral
STOCH
49.89
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:ALX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.87 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.86, below the 50-day MA of 4.99, and below the 200-day MA of 4.88, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 45.47 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 49.89 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:ALX.

Atlas Arteria Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
AU$1.33B24.255.78%3.59%9.52%-8.76%
AU$2.14B23.928.17%5.19%13.19%14.79%
$7.08B30.203.78%8.10%9.78%0.19%
$10.79B15.437.44%2.01%2.89%-14.66%
€7.77B68.593.82%2.23%28.47%-50.19%
$6.00B20.257.03%4.58%3.01%-23.84%
$46.72B350.471.24%4.32%-4.30%-59.47%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:ALX
Atlas Arteria
4.87
0.29
6.29%
AU:QUB
Qube Holdings
4.39
0.75
20.60%
AU:AZJ
Aurizon Holdings
3.43
0.15
4.41%
AU:TCL
Transurban Group
15.04
2.58
20.73%
AU:DBI
Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure Ltd.
4.43
1.31
41.99%
AU:KLS
Kelsian Group Limited
4.84
1.01
26.37%

Atlas Arteria Corporate Events

Atlas Arteria Reports Q3 Revenue Growth and Leadership Update
Oct 21, 2025

Atlas Arteria reported a 10.9% increase in toll revenue for Q3 2025 compared to the previous year, driven by strong traffic growth across its portfolio and favorable foreign exchange movements. The company also announced the appointment of Kara Lawrence as CEO of Dulles Greenway, bringing significant leadership experience to the role. This leadership change and revenue growth position Atlas Arteria favorably in the market, potentially benefiting stakeholders through improved operational efficiency and strategic leadership.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ALX) stock is a Hold with a A$5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Atlas Arteria stock, see the AU:ALX Stock Forecast page.

Atlas Arteria Announces Cessation of Performance Rights
Oct 14, 2025

Atlas Arteria announced the cessation of 24,464 performance rights due to the lapse of conditional rights, as the conditions were not met or became incapable of being satisfied. This announcement may impact the company’s financial operations and stakeholder interests by potentially affecting employee incentives tied to performance rights.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ALX) stock is a Hold with a A$5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Atlas Arteria stock, see the AU:ALX Stock Forecast page.

Atlas Arteria Secures US$325 Million in Notes for Chicago Skyway
Oct 12, 2025

Atlas Arteria announced that Chicago Skyway has successfully priced US$325 million in notes through the US Private Placement market, divided into two tranches with maturities in 2038 and 2041. This transaction, which will not increase incremental debt, aims to repay existing notes maturing in February 2026, thereby strengthening Chicago Skyway’s balance sheet and extending its average debt maturity, while maintaining its S&P credit rating at BBB.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ALX) stock is a Hold with a A$5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Atlas Arteria stock, see the AU:ALX Stock Forecast page.

Atlas Arteria Issues Performance Rights Under Employee Incentive Scheme
Oct 10, 2025

Atlas Arteria has announced the issuance of 32,214 performance rights as part of an employee incentive scheme. These securities are unquoted and are not intended to be listed on the ASX, reflecting the company’s ongoing efforts to incentivize and retain key personnel, potentially impacting its operational efficiency and stakeholder engagement.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ALX) stock is a Hold with a A$5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Atlas Arteria stock, see the AU:ALX Stock Forecast page.

Atlas Arteria Director Increases Stake in Company
Sep 29, 2025

Atlas Arteria has announced a change in the director’s interest, with Ken Daley, a director of Atlas Arteria Limited, acquiring an additional 4,000 ALX ordinary stapled securities through an on-market trade. This acquisition increases his total holdings to 24,000 securities, reflecting a strategic move that could signal confidence in the company’s future performance and potentially impact stakeholder perceptions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ALX) stock is a Hold with a A$5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Atlas Arteria stock, see the AU:ALX Stock Forecast page.

Atlas Arteria Announces H1 2025 Distribution
Sep 18, 2025

Atlas Arteria announced a distribution of 20.0 Australian cents per stapled security for the first half of 2025, with payments expected to be made in early October. This distribution reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to providing value to its stakeholders and maintaining its position in the toll road industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ALX) stock is a Hold with a A$5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Atlas Arteria stock, see the AU:ALX Stock Forecast page.

Atlas Arteria Declares New Dividend Distribution
Sep 18, 2025

Atlas Arteria has announced a new dividend distribution of AUD 0.20 per share, related to the six-month period ending June 30, 2025. The ex-dividend date is set for September 24, 2025, with a record date of September 25, 2025, and payment scheduled for October 7, 2025. This announcement reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to returning value to its shareholders and may influence investor sentiment positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ALX) stock is a Hold with a A$5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Atlas Arteria stock, see the AU:ALX Stock Forecast page.

Atlas Arteria Announces Issuance of Unquoted Securities
Sep 9, 2025

Atlas Arteria has announced the issuance and conversion of 22,879 unquoted equity securities, effective from September 5, 2025. This move signifies a strategic financial adjustment potentially impacting the company’s capital structure and market positioning, reflecting its ongoing efforts to optimize shareholder value and operational efficiency.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ALX) stock is a Hold with a A$5.35 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Atlas Arteria stock, see the AU:ALX Stock Forecast page.

Atlas Arteria Announces Director’s Interest Change
Sep 9, 2025

Atlas Arteria has announced a change in the director’s interest notice, specifically regarding Hugh Wehby, a director of ATLAX. The change involves the vesting of restricted stapled securities and rights under the company’s incentive plans, which were initially granted to compensate Mr. Wehby for forfeiting incentives from his previous employer. This adjustment reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to aligning its leadership’s interests with its strategic goals, potentially impacting its operational focus and stakeholder relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ALX) stock is a Hold with a A$5.35 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Atlas Arteria stock, see the AU:ALX Stock Forecast page.

Atlas Arteria Director Increases Stake in Company
Sep 2, 2025

Atlas Arteria announced a change in the director’s interest, with Andrew Cook, a director of Atlas Arteria International Limited, acquiring 1,680 additional ALX ordinary stapled securities through an on-market trade. This acquisition increases his total holdings to 46,430 securities, reflecting a continued confidence in the company’s performance and potential growth, which could positively influence stakeholder perceptions and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ALX) stock is a Buy with a A$5.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Atlas Arteria stock, see the AU:ALX Stock Forecast page.

Atlas Arteria Reports Decrease in Half-Year Profit
Aug 28, 2025

Atlas Arteria is a global infrastructure company that operates toll road businesses in France, Germany, and the United States, focusing on delivering efficient road experiences and sustainable business practices. The company is listed on the Australian Securities Exchange as a stapled security, combining shares of Atlas Arteria International Limited and Atlas Arteria Limited.

Atlas Arteria Releases Half-Year Investor Reference Pack
Aug 28, 2025

Atlas Arteria has released its Investor Reference Pack for the half year ended 30 June 2025, highlighting its continued focus on delivering value through its toll road operations in France, Germany, and the United States. This release underscores the company’s strategic positioning in the global infrastructure market and its commitment to sustainable business practices, which are likely to have positive implications for its stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ALX) stock is a Buy with a A$5.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Atlas Arteria stock, see the AU:ALX Stock Forecast page.

Atlas Arteria Releases Half-Year Results, Reinforces Market Position
Aug 28, 2025

Atlas Arteria has released its results presentation for the half year ended 30 June 2025, highlighting its ongoing operations across its international toll road portfolio. The announcement underscores the company’s commitment to maintaining its market position through strategic management and sustainable practices, which is likely to impact stakeholders positively by reinforcing its operational stability and growth potential.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ALX) stock is a Buy with a A$5.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Atlas Arteria stock, see the AU:ALX Stock Forecast page.

Atlas Arteria Reports H1 2025 Results and Reaffirms Distribution Guidance
Aug 28, 2025

Atlas Arteria reported a statutory net profit after tax of $73.3 million for the first half of 2025, impacted by a Temporary Supplemental Tax. Despite this, the company saw an 8.1% growth in toll revenue due to toll increases and favorable foreign exchange rates. The company is pursuing growth projects in France and moving forward with litigation and rate applications in North America. The reaffirmation of its 2025 distribution guidance at 40.0 cents per security demonstrates confidence in its financial stability, supported by growing free cash flow.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ALX) stock is a Buy with a A$5.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Atlas Arteria stock, see the AU:ALX Stock Forecast page.

Atlas Arteria Releases Half-Year Financial Results for 2025
Aug 28, 2025

Atlas Arteria has released its financial results for the half-year ending June 30, 2025, in compliance with Australian Accounting Standards. The report, which aligns with IFRS standards, is intended to be read alongside the company’s annual financial report for 2024. This release may impact stakeholders by providing insights into the company’s financial health and operational performance, potentially affecting its market positioning and investor confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ALX) stock is a Buy with a A$5.70 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Atlas Arteria stock, see the AU:ALX Stock Forecast page.

Atlas Arteria Sees Revenue Boost Amid Strong Traffic and Favorable Exchange Rates
Jul 29, 2025

Atlas Arteria reported a 10.7% increase in toll revenue for Q2 2025, driven by strong traffic performance and favorable foreign exchange rates. The APRR and Dulles Greenway showed notable traffic growth, while the A79 continued its robust performance. The French government’s support for the concession model, with proposed refinements, underscores the importance of tolls in financing infrastructure, potentially impacting future operations and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:ALX) stock is a Hold with a A$5.55 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Atlas Arteria stock, see the AU:ALX Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 29, 2025