Atlas Arteria (AU:ALX)
ASX:ALX
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Atlas Arteria
(Sydney:ALX)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
AU$5.00
â–²(17.10% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/28/26
The score is driven mainly by improving cash generation and a reasonably positioned balance sheet, plus supportive (but risk-aware) distribution guidance from the earnings call. Offsetting factors are inconsistent underlying operating profitability, only neutral technical momentum with longer-term moving-average pressure, and an elevated P/E despite the high dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Materially stronger operating and free cash flow in 2025 improves funding flexibility for distributions, maintenance and targeted growth. Durable cash conversion reduces dependence on capital markets, supports the 90%–110% payout framework and cushions debt servicing across the concession cycle.
Negative Factors
French Temporary Supplemental Tax headwind
A structural tax extension on French motorway returns directly reduces distributable cash from APRR investments and can persist across reporting periods. This alters long-term cash flow profiles, weakens predictability of euro distributions and complicates reinvestment and bidding economics.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Materially stronger operating and free cash flow in 2025 improves funding flexibility for distributions, maintenance and targeted growth. Durable cash conversion reduces dependence on capital markets, supports the 90%–110% payout framework and cushions debt servicing across the concession cycle.
Read all positive factors
Atlas Arteria (ALX) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$6.28B
Dividend Yield8.2%
Average Volume (3M)2.65M
Price to Earnings (P/E)27.3
Beta (1Y)0.59
Revenue Growth9.66%
EPS Growth-18.07%
CountryAU
Employees50
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryIndustrial - Infrastructure Operations
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.30
Shares Outstanding1,451,029,300
10 Day Avg. Volume1,765,956
30 Day Avg. Volume2,652,046
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.26
Price to Book (P/B)1.22
Price to Sales (P/S)44.25
P/FCF Ratio11.54
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$4.79Price Target Upside12.14% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)0.29
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$194.19M
Atlas Arteria Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Atlas Arteria Limited owns, develops, and operates toll roads. It holds a 13.4% interest in 22-kilometer toll road investors partnership II (TRIP II), the concessionaire for Dulles Greenway toll road located in Virginia, the United States. The com...
How the Company Makes Money
Atlas Arteria generates revenue primarily through the collection of tolls from the vehicles that use its managed road networks. This revenue model is underpinned by long-term concession agreements that grant the company the rights to operate and m...
Atlas Arteria Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a balanced picture: strong underlying operational performance (9.4% revenue and 9.3% EBITDA growth, stable 75% margin, robust Dulles traffic) and maintained distributions ($0.40 for 2025 and 2026) contrast with material near-term headwinds from the French Temporary Supplemental Tax, slightly lower cash receipts (-2% to $549M), localized traffic declines, elevated one-off costs and regulatory uncertainty around French concession retendering. Management emphasized portfolio resilience, a disciplined capital-allocation framework and flexibility in funding growth, but the tax and regulatory risks temper near-term free cash flow visibility.Positive Updates
Revenue and EBITDA Growth
Proportional toll revenue rose 9.4% and proportional EBITDA increased 9.3% year-over-year, supported by traffic growth, CPI-linked toll increases and favorable FX movements; consolidated total revenue (Dulles + Warnow roll-up) up ~10%.
Negative Updates
Temporary Supplemental Tax (TST) Impact
The French Temporary Supplemental Tax (TST) implemented in 2025 and extended into 2026 materially reduced cash flows and drove a decline in the share of profit from equity-accounted investments; this contributed to lower cash received from businesses.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and EBITDA Growth
Proportional toll revenue rose 9.4% and proportional EBITDA increased 9.3% year-over-year, supported by traffic growth, CPI-linked toll increases and favorable FX movements; consolidated total revenue (Dulles + Warnow roll-up) up ~10%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Atlas Arteria confirmed a stable distribution of $0.40 per security for 2025 (delivered) and for 2026, reiterating its 90%–110% of free cash flow payout policy while noting 2025 was above that range and 2026 could sit at the top or slightly outside the range due to the French Temporary Supplemental Tax (TST) extension; management expects to grow free cash flow over the next few years. The guidance is supported by strong operational results—proportional toll revenue +9.4%, proportional EBITDA +9.3% with a 75% EBITDA margin, total revenue +10%—and traffic trends (APRR +1.4%, ADELAC +1.5%, Warnow −3%, Chicago Skyway −0.3%, Dulles Greenway +8.2%). Key financial metrics include cash received from businesses $549m (−2% vs 2024), distributions paid $580m (≈ $0.40 per security), corporate available cash $151m (end‑2025), and $1.4bn of bonds/notes priced at APRR and Skyway; risk management actions include a zero‑cost, rolling 12‑month cap‑and‑collar FX hedge on euro distributions. Management expects corporate costs in 2026 to be in line with 2025, plans $5–10m p.a. of growth‑related spend over the next 2–3 years (funded from cash), and flags Skyway long‑term CapEx of ~$11m p.a. (medium‑term slightly higher).Atlas Arteria Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 160.00M | 145.00M | 134.00M | 118.24M | 100.52M |
| Gross Profit | 13.50M | 138.70M | 16.40M | 116.00K | -9.05M |
| EBITDA | 64.40M | 106.30M | 425.70M | 63.07M | -11.95M |
| Net Income | 259.50M | 335.90M | 323.50M | 266.96M | 163.70M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 7.67B | 8.26B | 8.04B | 8.33B | 5.22B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 274.40M | 351.50M | 305.30M | 521.66M | 229.39M |
| Total Debt | 1.75B | 1.85B | 1.72B | 1.74B | 1.65B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.87B | 1.95B | 1.81B | 1.84B | 1.72B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.80B | 3.34B | 6.24B | 6.49B | 3.50B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 613.40M | 92.10M | 712.80M | 473.14M | 38.56M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 614.00M | 93.20M | 84.70M | 473.50M | 40.03M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -600.00K | 633.00M | 631.70M | -3.01B | 304.05M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -681.20M | -683.80M | -682.10M | 2.58B | -374.71M |
Atlas Arteria Technical Analysis
Negative
4.27
Price Trends
4.41
Negative
4.54
Negative
4.65
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.04
Negative
40.74
Neutral
37.50
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:ALX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.27 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.31, below the 50-day MA of 4.41, and below the 200-day MA of 4.65, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 40.74 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 37.50 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:ALX.
Atlas Arteria Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | AU$29.71B | 10.05 | 28.67% | 2.69% | 5.29% | 15.50% | |
72 Outperform | AU$7.03B | 6.76 | 7.42% | 4.29% | 4.70% | -20.38% | |
64 Neutral | AU$6.28B | 27.28 | 3.46% | 8.20% | 9.66% | -18.07% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
59 Neutral | AU$43.37B | 37.11 | 5.32% | 4.47% | 0.65% | 532.10% | |
58 Neutral | AU$8.90B | 9.81 | 7.13% | 2.07% | 18.00% | -2.14% | |
51 Neutral | AU$2.69B | 84.90 | 2.80% | 4.73% | 10.18% | -64.24% |
* Industrials Sector Average
AU:ALX
Atlas Arteria
4.33
-0.33
-7.12%
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Atlas Arteria Corporate Events
Atlas Arteria issues 2025 Investor Reference Pack and outlines U.S. ownership limits
Feb 25, 2026
Atlas Arteria has released its Investor Reference Pack for the year ended 31 December 2025, providing shareholders and analysts with updated information on the group’s global toll road portfolio and financial reference data. The disclosure u...
Atlas Arteria Releases 2025 Full-Year Results Presentation
Feb 25, 2026
Atlas Arteria has released its results presentation for the year ended 31 December 2025, providing investors with updated financial and operational information on its global toll road portfolio. The announcement underscores the company’s con...
Atlas Arteria grows 2025 toll revenue, holds 40c payout despite French tax hit
Feb 25, 2026
Atlas Arteria reported proportional toll revenue of $2.01 billion and proportional EBITDA of $1.51 billion for 2025, with both metrics growing around 9%, supported by steady traffic, toll increases and favourable foreign exchange movements. Statut...
Atlas Arteria Faces Extended French Tax but Reaffirms Distribution Targets
Feb 3, 2026
Atlas Arteria has flagged that the French Parliament’s adoption of the 2026 Finance Law will extend the temporary supplemental tax first introduced in 2025, contrary to earlier expectations that it would be a one‑year measure. The tax,...
Atlas Arteria lifts APRR and AREA tolls under French concession terms
Feb 1, 2026
Atlas Arteria has announced that tolls on its French motorway networks APRR and AREA have risen by 0.94% and 0.95% respectively from 1 February 2026, in line with the provisions of their concession contracts. The modest increases, tied to contract...
Atlas Arteria Posts Nearly 10% Toll Revenue Growth on Strong 2025 Traffic
Jan 29, 2026
Atlas Arteria reported a 9.5% increase in proportionate toll revenue for the fourth quarter of 2025 and 9.4% growth for the full year compared with 2024, supported by toll increases across most assets, favourable foreign exchange movements and bro...
Atlas Arteria Sets 26 February Date for 2025 Full-Year Results and Investor Briefing
Jan 27, 2026
Atlas Arteria has scheduled the release of its full-year results for the period ended 31 December 2025 on 26 February 2026, accompanied by a same-day briefing for analysts and investors hosted by CEO Hugh Wehby and CFO Vincent Portal-Barrault. The...
Atlas Arteria Performance Rights Lapse After Vesting Conditions Not Met
Jan 8, 2026
Atlas Arteria has announced the lapse of 239,560 performance rights (ASX code ALXAL) effective 31 December 2025, after the conditional rights to securities failed to meet required vesting conditions or became incapable of being satisfied. The cess...
Atlas Arteria Seeks Toll Increase at Dulles Greenway
Dec 16, 2025
Atlas Arteria has filed an application for a toll price increase at the Dulles Greenway in Virginia, seeking approval from the State Corporation Commission. This request, which follows stakeholder sessions with various Virginia state entities, pro...
Atlas Arteria Announces Changes in Company Secretary Positions
Dec 12, 2025
Atlas Arteria has announced the appointment of Mr. Daniel Krutik as a Joint Company Secretary, effective December 15, 2025, following the resignation of Mr. Clayton McCormack. This change in leadership is expected to maintain seamless communicatio...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.