Transurban Group (TCL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$42.24B
• Dividend Yield: 4.78%
• Average Volume (3M): 5.32M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 561.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.70
• Revenue Growth: -6.59%
• EPS Growth: -66.98%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 4,100
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 94
• Industry: Industrial - Infrastructure Operations
• EPS (TTM): -0.01
• Shares Outstanding: 3,108,380,600
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 5,140,736
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 5,322,301
• PEG Ratio: -7.11
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.05
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 28.37
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: AU$13.74
• Price Target Upside: 1.08% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

• Rating: 61 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$14.50 ▲(6.70%Upside)

Transurban Group Ltd. has a moderate overall score driven by strong operational performance and cost management, as highlighted in the earnings call. However, high leverage and extreme valuation metrics present risks. The technical indicators suggest potential bearish momentum, though some indicators hint at a possible rebound. The company's solid dividend yield is a positive factor for income investors, but the high P/E ratio implies caution.

Transurban Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Transurban Group develops, operates, manages, and maintains toll road networks. It operates 21 toll roads in Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane in Australia; the Greater Washington area, the United States; and Montreal, North America. The company is headquartered in Melbourne, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

Transurban Group generates revenue through the collection of tolls from vehicles using its road networks. The company's primary revenue streams include toll revenue from its extensive portfolio of toll roads in Australia and North America. Transurban employs dynamic pricing mechanisms on some roads, adjusting toll rates based on traffic conditions to manage congestion and optimize road usage. Additionally, the company may earn revenue from government contracts related to the construction and maintenance of infrastructure projects. Partnerships with local governments and other private entities are significant to its business model, enabling Transurban to secure long-term agreements that ensure steady income from its toll road assets.

Transurban Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Transurban Group Ltd. demonstrates solid profitability and cash flow generation, despite a slight decline in revenue. The company’s balance sheet shows significant leverage, which should be monitored closely as it could impact financial stability in adverse conditions. Overall, the firm is in a strong position with good operational efficiency, but caution is advised regarding revenue trends and leverage levels.

Income Statement

Transurban Group Ltd. has shown a strong improvement in profitability metrics with a significant increase in Gross Profit Margin to 57.0% and Net Profit Margin to 7.9% for the latest year. EBIT and EBITDA margins have also improved, indicating efficient cost management. However, revenue has declined slightly by 0.9% compared to the previous year, which could be a concern if it continues.

Balance Sheet

The company's Debt-to-Equity ratio is relatively high at 1.81, reflecting significant leverage which poses a risk. Return on Equity has improved to 2.95%, and the Equity Ratio stands at 30.1%, indicating a moderate level of equity financing. While the company's leverage is considerable, it is managing to maintain a stable equity base.

Cash Flow

Operating Cash Flow to Net Income ratio is strong at 5.0, suggesting good cash generation relative to net income. Free Cash Flow to Net Income is 1.58, indicating positive free cash flow generation. However, Free Cash Flow has decreased by 8.0% from the previous period, which could impact future flexibility if it persists.

Breakdown	TTM	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021	Jun 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.83B	4.12B	4.16B	3.41B	2.89B	3.17B
Gross Profit	2.21B	1.28B	1.17B	730.00M	658.00M	688.00M
EBITDA	2.06B	2.19B	2.22B	1.95B	1.61B	1.73B
Net Income	75.00M	326.00M	64.00M	19.00M	-423.00M	-111.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	35.68B	36.69B	37.72B	38.97B	35.67B	37.97B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.07B	2.04B	2.08B	2.02B	4.29B	2.35B
Total Debt	19.70B	19.95B	18.70B	17.77B	17.97B	21.23B
Total Liabilities	24.83B	25.02B	24.44B	23.74B	24.54B	29.17B
Stockholders Equity	10.25B	11.04B	12.57B	14.42B	10.34B	7.87B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.47B	515.00M	560.00M	861.00M	294.00M	-267.00M
Operating Cash Flow	1.58B	1.63B	1.74B	1.47B	1.34B	1.30B
Investing Cash Flow	-796.00M	-760.00M	-943.00M	-6.42B	1.22B	-2.27B
Financing Cash Flow	-1.75B	-911.00M	-739.00M	2.65B	-576.00M	1.66B

Transurban Group Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 13.59
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:TCL, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 13.59 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.61, below the 50-day MA of 13.82, and above the 200-day MA of 13.11, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.84 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 72.84 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AU:TCL.

Transurban Group Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	61 Neutral	C$6.54B	7.71	3.45%	2.57%	6.48%	-23.10%
TCL	61 Neutral	AU$42.24B	561.73	0.68%	4.78%	-6.59%	-66.98%
1K1	―	€4.30B	31.21	7.24%	2.25%	―	―
BMBLF	―	$20.83B	26.22	26.45%	2.57%	―	―
MAQAF	―	$4.90B	27.40	4.45%	2.18%	―	―
QRNNF	―	$3.76B	12.07	9.38%	2.92%	―	―
9SG0	―	€11.91B	23.40	18.25%	0.59%	―	―

Transurban Group Corporate Events

Transurban Group Announces Director’s Increased Stake

Transurban Group has announced a change in the director’s interest, with Sarah Elizabeth Ryan acquiring an additional 1,000 stapled securities, bringing her total to 6,000. This acquisition, conducted through Avoch Holdings Pty Ltd as trustee for Cedar Creek Investment Trust, reflects ongoing confidence in the company’s performance and strategic direction, potentially impacting investor perceptions and market confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TCL) stock is a Hold with a A$13.33 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Transurban Group stock, see the AU:TCL Stock Forecast page.

Transurban Group Announces New Dividend Distribution

Transurban Group has announced a new dividend distribution of AUD 0.33 per fully paid ordinary/unit stapled security, with the ex-date set for June 27, 2025, and the payment date scheduled for August 22, 2025. This announcement reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to providing returns to its stakeholders and may influence its market positioning by reinforcing investor confidence in its financial health.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TCL) stock is a Hold with a A$13.33 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Transurban Group stock, see the AU:TCL Stock Forecast page.

Transurban Group Announces FY25 Distribution and Upcoming AGM Details

Transurban Group has announced a distribution of 33.0 cents per stapled security for the six months ending 30 June 2025, with the Distribution Reinvestment Plan (DRP) in effect and no discount applied to the DRP pricing. The company also scheduled its 2025 Annual General Meetings for 8 October 2025, with further details to be provided to security holders as per regulatory requirements.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TCL) stock is a Hold with a A$13.33 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Transurban Group stock, see the AU:TCL Stock Forecast page.

Transurban Secures A$200 Million Financing for WestConnex

Transurban Group has announced the successful financial closure of a A$200 million 10-year syndicated bank facility through WestConnex Finance Company Pty Limited. This new facility, which will mature in May 2035, is set to rank equally with WestConnex’s existing senior debt, reinforcing Transurban’s strategic investment in WestConnex, where it holds a 50% interest. This move is expected to bolster the company’s financial stability and enhance its position in the infrastructure sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TCL) stock is a Hold with a A$13.33 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Transurban Group stock, see the AU:TCL Stock Forecast page.

Transurban Queensland Secures A$255 Million in Note Issuance

Transurban Queensland, a part of the Transurban Group, has successfully priced A$255 million in senior secured notes under its Australian Medium Term Note Programme. This issuance, set to mature in 2032, is expected to bolster the company’s financial standing and enhance its capacity to manage existing debt, reflecting positively on its operational stability and market position.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TCL) stock is a Hold with a A$13.33 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Transurban Group stock, see the AU:TCL Stock Forecast page.

UniSuper Reduces Stake in Transurban Group

UniSuper Limited, acting as a trustee for UniSuper, has reduced its voting power in Transurban Group from 10.40% to 8.51% as of May 9, 2025. This change in substantial holding may influence Transurban’s shareholder dynamics and could have implications for the company’s governance and strategic decisions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TCL) stock is a Hold with a A$13.33 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Transurban Group stock, see the AU:TCL Stock Forecast page.

Transurban Announces Strategic Organizational Changes for Growth

Transurban Group has announced organizational changes aimed at enhancing growth and operational efficiency, resulting in the departure of approximately 300 employees. These changes are part of a broader strategy to streamline operations, invest in customer-facing technologies, and focus on long-term growth opportunities, with expected annual cost savings exceeding $50 million.

Transurban Group Announces Cessation of Securities

Transurban Group announced the cessation of 38,561 unquoted performance awards due to the lapse of conditional rights, as the conditions were not met or became incapable of being satisfied. This development may affect the company’s capital structure and could have implications for stakeholders, reflecting the challenges in meeting performance conditions in the current market environment.

Transurban Queensland Secures CHF 120 Million in Swiss Bond Market

Transurban Queensland, a subsidiary of Transurban Group, has successfully priced CHF 120 million in senior secured notes in the Swiss bond market. This strategic financial move underlines Transurban’s robust market positioning and commitment to enhancing its financial flexibility, with the proceeds to be converted into Australian dollars, potentially impacting its operational capabilities and stakeholder interests positively.