Transurban Group Ltd. (AU:TCL)
:TCL
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Transurban Group (TCL) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:TCL

Transurban Group

(OTC:TCL)

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Neutral 52 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
AU$14.00
▼(-6.17% Downside)
Transurban Group's overall stock score reflects a combination of mixed financial performance, bearish technical indicators, and high valuation concerns. The slightly positive sentiment from the earnings call provides some support, but significant financial and technical challenges weigh heavily on the score.

Transurban Group (TCL) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Transurban Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTransurban Group develops, operates, manages, and maintains toll road networks. It operates 21 toll roads in Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane in Australia; the Greater Washington area, the United States; and Montreal, North America. The company is headquartered in Melbourne, Australia.
How the Company Makes MoneyTransurban generates revenue primarily through toll collections from vehicles using its network of toll roads. The company employs various pricing strategies, including dynamic pricing based on demand, which allows it to maximize revenue during peak traffic periods. Additionally, Transurban earns income from concession agreements, where it partners with government entities to finance and operate infrastructure projects. The company also benefits from ancillary services such as advertising and leasing spaces along its toll roads. Strategic partnerships with local and state governments, as well as private sector collaborations, further enhance its revenue potential by facilitating the development and expansion of toll road infrastructure.

Transurban Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 19, 2025
(Q4-2025)
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% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted significant revenue growth, successful cost management, and strong performance in North America. However, challenges such as construction impacts in Sydney, litigation, and issues with the West Gate Tunnel project were also noted. The overall sentiment is slightly positive due to the strong financial metrics and future growth prospects outweighing the challenges.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Revenue and Distribution Growth
Revenue increased by 5.6% and distributions grew by around 5%, with a plan to increase distributions by 6% next year.
EBITDA and Cost Management
Achieved 7.4% EBITDA growth while keeping costs flat, outperforming cost guidance.
Traffic Growth
Traffic grew across all markets with North America up 6.4% and large vehicle traffic in Brisbane up 4.1%.
Strong Performance in North America
North America delivered nearly 25% of overall revenue growth, contributing more revenue than it did 5 years ago with 50% less ownership.
Project Pipeline
Nearly $13 billion worth of projects opening next year with more than $10 billion in new project discussions.
Efficient Funding and Debt Management
Weighted average cost of debt remained flat at 4.5% with 92.5% of the debt book hedged.
Negative Updates
Impact of Construction in Sydney
Traffic growth impacted by construction projects in Sydney, expected to ease in FY '26.
West Gate Tunnel Project Challenges
Reports of contractor challenges, although project remains on track and is 95% complete.
Litigation Impact
Litigation regarding roaming fees payable by ConnectEast to Transurban, with an initial judgment against Transurban.
A25 Traffic and Revenue Disconnect
Traffic growth did not translate into revenue growth for A25, impacted by external construction projects.
Company Guidance
During the Transurban Group FY '25 Results Call, CEO Michelle Jablko and CFO Henry Byrne shared a comprehensive overview of the company's performance and future outlook. Key financial metrics included a 5.6% increase in revenue, a 7.4% growth in EBITDA, and a 5% rise in distributions, outperforming cost guidance. Traffic growth was noted across all markets, with North America showing a 6.4% increase. The company plans a 6% distribution increase next year, supported by successful cost management, with proportional operating costs remaining flat at $947 million. Transurban's strong liquidity, with $3.7 billion in corporate liquidity and $1.7 billion in balance sheet capacity, positions it well for future growth opportunities, including $13 billion worth of projects slated to open in the next year. Additionally, the company is exploring toll reform in New South Wales and potential new opportunities in North America and New Zealand, emphasizing its strategic focus on delivering long-term value to stakeholders.

Transurban Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Transurban Group's financial performance is mixed. While operational efficiency is evident through stable EBIT and EBITDA margins, declining revenue and net profit margins raise concerns about growth and profitability. High leverage poses financial risks, and declining free cash flow growth suggests potential liquidity challenges.
Income Statement
65
Positive
Transurban Group's income statement shows a mixed performance. The gross profit margin has improved significantly over the years, reaching 68% in 2025, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has declined to 3.5% in 2025 from 7.9% in 2024, reflecting challenges in converting revenue into profit. Revenue growth has been negative in recent years, with a notable decline of 1.5% in 2025, which is a concern for future growth prospects. The EBIT and EBITDA margins remain stable, suggesting operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 2.30 in 2025, indicating significant leverage and potential financial risk. Return on equity has decreased to 1.45% in 2025, down from 2.95% in 2024, showing reduced profitability for shareholders. The equity ratio is not explicitly calculated, but the high debt levels suggest a lower proportion of equity financing, which could limit financial flexibility.
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
Cash flow analysis indicates a concerning trend, with free cash flow growth rate declining by 58.6% in 2025. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.38, suggesting moderate cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.40, indicating that a significant portion of net income is not translating into free cash flow, which could impact future investments and debt servicing.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue3.80B3.77B4.12B4.16B3.41B2.89B
Gross Profit1.62B2.56B1.28B1.17B730.00M658.00M
EBITDA2.13B2.17B2.24B2.22B1.65B1.59B
Net Income133.00M133.00M326.00M64.00M19.00M-423.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets35.57B35.57B36.69B37.72B38.97B35.67B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.73B1.73B2.04B2.08B2.02B4.29B
Total Debt21.07B21.07B19.95B18.70B17.77B17.97B
Total Liabilities26.05B26.05B25.02B24.44B23.74B24.54B
Stockholders Equity9.17B9.17B11.04B12.57B14.42B10.34B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow1.79B608.00M515.00M560.00M861.00M294.00M
Operating Cash Flow1.93B1.51B1.63B1.74B1.47B1.34B
Investing Cash Flow-755.00M-126.00M-760.00M-943.00M-6.42B1.22B
Financing Cash Flow-1.70B-1.70B-911.00M-739.00M2.65B-576.00M

Transurban Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price14.92
Price Trends
50DMA
14.45
Positive
100DMA
14.20
Positive
200DMA
13.80
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.15
Negative
RSI
57.29
Neutral
STOCH
62.40
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:TCL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 14.92 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.83, above the 50-day MA of 14.45, and above the 200-day MA of 13.80, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.15 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.29 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 62.40 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:TCL.

Transurban Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
75
Outperform
$32.24B24.5226.28%2.65%3.11%12.79%
64
Neutral
$7.01B29.893.78%8.00%9.78%0.19%
63
Neutral
$10.79B15.437.44%2.01%2.89%-14.66%
60
Neutral
€7.64B67.503.82%2.27%28.47%-50.19%
60
Neutral
$6.02B20.317.03%4.56%3.01%-23.84%
59
Neutral
€19.25B36.8111.42%1.41%1.19%1.09%
52
Neutral
AU$46.44B348.361.24%4.36%-4.30%-59.47%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:TCL
Transurban Group
14.92
2.89
24.03%
AU:QUB
Qube Holdings
4.31
0.43
10.97%
AU:BXB
Brambles
23.47
4.40
23.06%
AU:ALX
Atlas Arteria
4.98
0.52
11.61%
AU:AZJ
Aurizon Holdings
3.44
0.15
4.72%
AU:SGH
Seven Group Holdings Limited
44.27
-2.84
-6.04%

Transurban Group Corporate Events

Transurban Group Updates Dividend Distribution Details
Jul 30, 2025

Transurban Group has updated its previous notification regarding its dividend distribution to include the Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRP) price. This update pertains to the dividend distribution for the six-month period ending on June 30, 2025. The announcement is crucial for stakeholders as it provides clarity on the financial returns and investment opportunities associated with the company’s securities.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TCL) stock is a Hold with a A$13.33 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Transurban Group stock, see the AU:TCL Stock Forecast page.

Transurban Group Announces Distribution Reinvestment Plan Participation
Jul 30, 2025

Transurban Group has announced that 7.37% of its security holders have opted to participate in the Distribution Reinvestment Plan (DRP) for the distribution of 33.0 cents per stapled security for the six months ending June 30, 2025. The DRP issue price is set at $13.4692 per stapled security, with the new securities to be issued on August 22, 2025, and will rank equally with existing securities. This move reflects a strategic effort to enhance shareholder value and indicates a positive reception from investors, potentially strengthening Transurban’s capital structure and market position.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TCL) stock is a Hold with a A$13.33 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Transurban Group stock, see the AU:TCL Stock Forecast page.

Transurban Group Announces Director’s Increased Stake
Jun 26, 2025

Transurban Group has announced a change in the director’s interest, with Sarah Elizabeth Ryan acquiring an additional 1,000 stapled securities, bringing her total to 6,000. This acquisition, conducted through Avoch Holdings Pty Ltd as trustee for Cedar Creek Investment Trust, reflects ongoing confidence in the company’s performance and strategic direction, potentially impacting investor perceptions and market confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TCL) stock is a Hold with a A$13.33 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Transurban Group stock, see the AU:TCL Stock Forecast page.

Transurban Group Announces New Dividend Distribution
Jun 19, 2025

Transurban Group has announced a new dividend distribution of AUD 0.33 per fully paid ordinary/unit stapled security, with the ex-date set for June 27, 2025, and the payment date scheduled for August 22, 2025. This announcement reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to providing returns to its stakeholders and may influence its market positioning by reinforcing investor confidence in its financial health.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TCL) stock is a Hold with a A$13.33 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Transurban Group stock, see the AU:TCL Stock Forecast page.

Transurban Group Announces FY25 Distribution and Upcoming AGM Details
Jun 19, 2025

Transurban Group has announced a distribution of 33.0 cents per stapled security for the six months ending 30 June 2025, with the Distribution Reinvestment Plan (DRP) in effect and no discount applied to the DRP pricing. The company also scheduled its 2025 Annual General Meetings for 8 October 2025, with further details to be provided to security holders as per regulatory requirements.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TCL) stock is a Hold with a A$13.33 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Transurban Group stock, see the AU:TCL Stock Forecast page.

Transurban Secures A$200 Million Financing for WestConnex
May 30, 2025

Transurban Group has announced the successful financial closure of a A$200 million 10-year syndicated bank facility through WestConnex Finance Company Pty Limited. This new facility, which will mature in May 2035, is set to rank equally with WestConnex’s existing senior debt, reinforcing Transurban’s strategic investment in WestConnex, where it holds a 50% interest. This move is expected to bolster the company’s financial stability and enhance its position in the infrastructure sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TCL) stock is a Hold with a A$13.33 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Transurban Group stock, see the AU:TCL Stock Forecast page.

Transurban Queensland Secures A$255 Million in Note Issuance
May 22, 2025

Transurban Queensland, a part of the Transurban Group, has successfully priced A$255 million in senior secured notes under its Australian Medium Term Note Programme. This issuance, set to mature in 2032, is expected to bolster the company’s financial standing and enhance its capacity to manage existing debt, reflecting positively on its operational stability and market position.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TCL) stock is a Hold with a A$13.33 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Transurban Group stock, see the AU:TCL Stock Forecast page.

UniSuper Reduces Stake in Transurban Group
May 14, 2025

UniSuper Limited, acting as a trustee for UniSuper, has reduced its voting power in Transurban Group from 10.40% to 8.51% as of May 9, 2025. This change in substantial holding may influence Transurban’s shareholder dynamics and could have implications for the company’s governance and strategic decisions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:TCL) stock is a Hold with a A$13.33 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Transurban Group stock, see the AU:TCL Stock Forecast page.

Transurban Announces Strategic Organizational Changes for Growth
May 7, 2025

Transurban Group has announced organizational changes aimed at enhancing growth and operational efficiency, resulting in the departure of approximately 300 employees. These changes are part of a broader strategy to streamline operations, invest in customer-facing technologies, and focus on long-term growth opportunities, with expected annual cost savings exceeding $50 million.

Transurban Group Announces Cessation of Securities
May 6, 2025

Transurban Group announced the cessation of 38,561 unquoted performance awards due to the lapse of conditional rights, as the conditions were not met or became incapable of being satisfied. This development may affect the company’s capital structure and could have implications for stakeholders, reflecting the challenges in meeting performance conditions in the current market environment.

Transurban Queensland Secures CHF 120 Million in Swiss Bond Market
May 6, 2025

Transurban Queensland, a subsidiary of Transurban Group, has successfully priced CHF 120 million in senior secured notes in the Swiss bond market. This strategic financial move underlines Transurban’s robust market positioning and commitment to enhancing its financial flexibility, with the proceeds to be converted into Australian dollars, potentially impacting its operational capabilities and stakeholder interests positively.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 03, 2025