Transurban Group Ltd. (AU:TCL)
ASX:TCL
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Transurban Group
(Sydney:TCL)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
AU$15.00
â–²(6.61% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/20/26
The score is primarily constrained by mixed financial performance—declining profitability, negative revenue growth, high leverage, and weakening free cash flow. Technical indicators are mildly supportive, while valuation remains stretched due to a high P/E despite an attractive dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Concession-based recurring revenue
Transurban's business is built on long-term concession and lease agreements with contractual toll escalation. That structural revenue model creates predictable, durable cash flows and a legally supported pricing mechanism, reducing demand-cycle volatility and aiding long-term planning and investment.
Negative Factors
High leverage
A debt-to-equity ratio of 2.30 signals material financial leverage. Elevated debt increases interest and refinancing risk, constrains capital allocation flexibility, and makes the company more sensitive to rate cycles and cash-flow shocks, limiting resilience over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Concession-based recurring revenue
Transurban's business is built on long-term concession and lease agreements with contractual toll escalation. That structural revenue model creates predictable, durable cash flows and a legally supported pricing mechanism, reducing demand-cycle volatility and aiding long-term planning and investment.
Read all positive factors
Transurban Group (TCL) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$43.90B
Dividend Yield4.47%
Average Volume (3M)4.91M
Price to Earnings (P/E)37.1
Beta (1Y)0.45
Revenue Growth-4.30%
EPS Growth-59.47%
CountryAU
Employees4,100
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryIndustrial - Infrastructure Operations
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.10
Shares Outstanding3,120,183,800
10 Day Avg. Volume5,110,976
30 Day Avg. Volume4,909,140
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-5.36
Price to Book (P/B)4.73
Price to Sales (P/S)11.51
P/FCF Ratio71.37
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$14.07Price Target Upside0.01% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)0.19
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$4.15B
Transurban Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Transurban Group develops, operates, manages, and maintains toll road networks. It operates 21 toll roads in Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane in Australia; the Greater Washington area, the United States; and Montreal, North America. The company is ...
How the Company Makes Money
Transurban primarily makes money by charging tolls to vehicles using its toll roads. Revenue is generated through (1) direct toll receipts from motorists and commercial vehicles, typically collected via electronic tags and video matching/number-pl...
Transurban Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 19, 2025
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 18, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted significant revenue growth, successful cost management, and strong performance in North America. However, challenges such as construction impacts in Sydney, litigation, and issues with the West Gate Tunnel project were also noted. The overall sentiment is slightly positive due to the strong financial metrics and future growth prospects outweighing the challenges.Positive Updates
Revenue and Distribution Growth
Revenue increased by 5.6% and distributions grew by around 5%, with a plan to increase distributions by 6% next year.
Negative Updates
Impact of Construction in Sydney
Traffic growth impacted by construction projects in Sydney, expected to ease in FY '26.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and Distribution Growth
Revenue increased by 5.6% and distributions grew by around 5%, with a plan to increase distributions by 6% next year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
During the Transurban Group FY '25 Results Call, CEO Michelle Jablko and CFO Henry Byrne shared a comprehensive overview of the company's performance and future outlook. Key financial metrics included a 5.6% increase in revenue, a 7.4% growth in EBITDA, and a 5% rise in distributions, outperforming cost guidance. Traffic growth was noted across all markets, with North America showing a 6.4% increase. The company plans a 6% distribution increase next year, supported by successful cost management, with proportional operating costs remaining flat at $947 million. Transurban's strong liquidity, with $3.7 billion in corporate liquidity and $1.7 billion in balance sheet capacity, positions it well for future growth opportunities, including $13 billion worth of projects slated to open in the next year. Additionally, the company is exploring toll reform in New South Wales and potential new opportunities in North America and New Zealand, emphasizing its strategic focus on delivering long-term value to stakeholders.Transurban Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
65
Positive
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.00B | 3.77B | 4.12B | 4.16B | 3.41B | 2.89B |
| Gross Profit | 1.36B | 2.56B | 1.28B | 1.17B | 730.00M | 658.00M |
| EBITDA | 2.39B | 2.17B | 2.24B | 2.22B | 1.65B | 1.59B |
| Net Income | 478.00M | 133.00M | 326.00M | 64.00M | 19.00M | -423.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 34.69B | 35.57B | 36.69B | 37.72B | 38.97B | 35.67B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.23B | 1.73B | 2.04B | 2.08B | 2.02B | 4.29B |
| Total Debt | 20.46B | 21.07B | 19.95B | 18.70B | 17.77B | 17.97B |
| Total Liabilities | 25.55B | 26.05B | 25.02B | 24.44B | 23.74B | 24.54B |
| Stockholders Equity | 8.79B | 9.17B | 11.04B | 12.57B | 14.42B | 10.34B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.03B | 608.00M | 515.00M | 560.00M | 861.00M | 294.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.16B | 1.51B | 1.63B | 1.74B | 1.47B | 1.34B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -757.00M | -126.00M | -760.00M | -943.00M | -6.42B | 1.22B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -969.00M | -1.70B | -911.00M | -739.00M | 2.65B | -576.00M |
Transurban Group Technical Analysis
Positive
14.07
Price Trends
14.03
Positive
14.18
Negative
13.98
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.06
Positive
50.25
Neutral
56.45
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:TCL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 14.07 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.13, above the 50-day MA of 14.03, and above the 200-day MA of 13.98, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.25 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.45 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:TCL.
Transurban Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | AU$30.05B | 10.05 | 28.67% | 2.69% | 3.11% | 12.79% | |
72 Outperform | AU$6.70B | 6.76 | 7.42% | 4.29% | 3.01% | -23.84% | |
64 Neutral | AU$6.37B | 27.28 | 3.78% | 8.20% | 9.78% | 0.19% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
59 Neutral | AU$43.90B | 37.11 | 5.32% | 4.47% | -4.30% | -59.47% | |
58 Neutral | AU$8.66B | 9.81 | 7.13% | 2.07% | 28.47% | -50.19% | |
55 Neutral | AU$16.98B | 10.03 | 9.50% | 1.31% | 1.19% | 1.09% |
* Industrials Sector Average
AU:TCL
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14.07
1.30
10.21%
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Transurban Group Corporate Events
Transurban quotes new stapled securities issued under reinvestment plan
Feb 25, 2026
Transurban Group has applied for quotation on the ASX of 5,392,155 fully paid stapled securities under its dividend or distribution reinvestment plan. The new TCL securities were issued on 24 February 2026, modestly increasing the company’s ...
Transurban details 1H26 results framework and investor disclaimers
Feb 19, 2026
Transurban Group has released its 1H26 results publication with a focus on proportional and statutory financial reporting, outlining how it presents measures such as proportional toll revenue, EBITDA and Free Cash. The company emphasises that many...
Transurban lifts earnings on traffic growth and North America step change
Feb 19, 2026
Transurban reported 1H26 statutory profit after tax of $343 million, with proportional total revenue up 6% to $2.0 billion and proportional operating EBITDA rising 6.4% to $1.55 billion. Average daily traffic grew 2.5% to 2.6 million trips despite...
Transurban lifts revenue, profit and interim payout on stronger toll road performance
Feb 19, 2026
Transurban Group reported an 8.1% rise in statutory revenue to $1.983 billion for the half-year to 31 December 2025, with profit after tax attributable to security holders reaching $298 million, while proportional toll revenue grew 6.4% to $1.991 ...
Transurban Reports Lapse of 73,219 Unquoted Performance Awards
Feb 9, 2026
Transurban Group has notified the market that 73,219 unquoted performance awards, classified as TCLAA, have lapsed after the conditions attached to these securities were not met or became incapable of being satisfied as of 31 January 2026. The ces...
Transurban Adds DRP Pricing to December Distribution Notice
Feb 4, 2026
Transurban updated its December 2025 distribution notice to add the dividend reinvestment plan price for its stapled securities covering the six-month period ended 31 December, reinforcing clarity for investors on the forthcoming payout. Finalizin...
Transurban Locks In 7.08% Participation for Latest DRP
Feb 4, 2026
Security holders representing 7.08% of Transurban’s issued capital opted into the Distribution Reinvestment Plan for the 34.0 cents per stapled security payout for the half-year ended 31 December 2025, receiving new staples at $13.8928 that ...
Transurban Issues New Tranche of Unquoted Performance Awards Under Incentive Scheme
Jan 5, 2026
Transurban Group has notified the market of the issue of 50,561 unquoted performance awards under its employee incentive scheme, effective 29 December 2025. The additional equity-based awards, which will not be quoted on the ASX, underscore the co...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.