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Transurban Group Ltd. (AU:TCL)
ASX:TCL

Transurban Group (TCL) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:TCL

Transurban Group

(Sydney:TCL)

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Neutral 52 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
AU$14.00
▼(-5.85% Downside)
Transurban Group's overall stock score reflects a combination of mixed financial performance, bearish technical indicators, and high valuation concerns. The slightly positive sentiment from the earnings call provides some support, but significant financial and technical challenges weigh heavily on the score.
Positive Factors
Revenue and Distribution Growth
The consistent growth in revenue and distributions indicates strong operational performance and shareholder value, supporting long-term financial health.
Strong Performance in North America
The significant revenue contribution from North America highlights effective market expansion and strategic asset management, enhancing global competitiveness.
Project Pipeline
A robust project pipeline ensures future growth opportunities and strengthens Transurban's market position, supporting long-term revenue and asset base expansion.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
High leverage can constrain financial flexibility and increase risk, potentially impacting the company's ability to invest in growth and manage economic downturns.
Declining Free Cash Flow
A decline in free cash flow growth can limit the company's ability to fund new projects, pay dividends, and reduce debt, affecting long-term financial stability.
Construction Impacts in Sydney
Ongoing construction impacts in Sydney could suppress revenue growth and operational efficiency in the short to medium term, affecting overall performance.

Transurban Group (TCL) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Transurban Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTransurban Group (TCL) is a leading toll road operator headquartered in Australia, specializing in the development, operation, and maintenance of urban toll road networks. With a significant presence in Australia and North America, Transurban focuses on providing efficient transportation solutions through its portfolio of toll roads, which are designed to alleviate traffic congestion and enhance connectivity. The company is also involved in innovative projects aimed at improving traffic management and road safety.
How the Company Makes MoneyTransurban generates revenue primarily through toll collections from vehicles using its network of toll roads. The company employs various pricing strategies, including dynamic pricing based on demand, which allows it to maximize revenue during peak traffic periods. Additionally, Transurban earns income from concession agreements, where it partners with government entities to finance and operate infrastructure projects. The company also benefits from ancillary services such as advertising and leasing spaces along its toll roads. Strategic partnerships with local and state governments, as well as private sector collaborations, further enhance its revenue potential by facilitating the development and expansion of toll road infrastructure.

Transurban Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 19, 2025
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 19, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted significant revenue growth, successful cost management, and strong performance in North America. However, challenges such as construction impacts in Sydney, litigation, and issues with the West Gate Tunnel project were also noted. The overall sentiment is slightly positive due to the strong financial metrics and future growth prospects outweighing the challenges.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Revenue and Distribution Growth
Revenue increased by 5.6% and distributions grew by around 5%, with a plan to increase distributions by 6% next year.
EBITDA and Cost Management
Achieved 7.4% EBITDA growth while keeping costs flat, outperforming cost guidance.
Traffic Growth
Traffic grew across all markets with North America up 6.4% and large vehicle traffic in Brisbane up 4.1%.
Strong Performance in North America
North America delivered nearly 25% of overall revenue growth, contributing more revenue than it did 5 years ago with 50% less ownership.
Project Pipeline
Nearly $13 billion worth of projects opening next year with more than $10 billion in new project discussions.
Efficient Funding and Debt Management
Weighted average cost of debt remained flat at 4.5% with 92.5% of the debt book hedged.
Negative Updates
Impact of Construction in Sydney
Traffic growth impacted by construction projects in Sydney, expected to ease in FY '26.
West Gate Tunnel Project Challenges
Reports of contractor challenges, although project remains on track and is 95% complete.
Litigation Impact
Litigation regarding roaming fees payable by ConnectEast to Transurban, with an initial judgment against Transurban.
A25 Traffic and Revenue Disconnect
Traffic growth did not translate into revenue growth for A25, impacted by external construction projects.
Company Guidance
During the Transurban Group FY '25 Results Call, CEO Michelle Jablko and CFO Henry Byrne shared a comprehensive overview of the company's performance and future outlook. Key financial metrics included a 5.6% increase in revenue, a 7.4% growth in EBITDA, and a 5% rise in distributions, outperforming cost guidance. Traffic growth was noted across all markets, with North America showing a 6.4% increase. The company plans a 6% distribution increase next year, supported by successful cost management, with proportional operating costs remaining flat at $947 million. Transurban's strong liquidity, with $3.7 billion in corporate liquidity and $1.7 billion in balance sheet capacity, positions it well for future growth opportunities, including $13 billion worth of projects slated to open in the next year. Additionally, the company is exploring toll reform in New South Wales and potential new opportunities in North America and New Zealand, emphasizing its strategic focus on delivering long-term value to stakeholders.

Transurban Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Transurban Group's financial performance is mixed. While operational efficiency is evident through stable EBIT and EBITDA margins, declining revenue and net profit margins raise concerns about growth and profitability. High leverage poses financial risks, and declining free cash flow growth suggests potential liquidity challenges.
Income Statement
65
Positive
Transurban Group's income statement shows a mixed performance. The gross profit margin has improved significantly over the years, reaching 68% in 2025, indicating efficient cost management. However, the net profit margin has declined to 3.5% in 2025 from 7.9% in 2024, reflecting challenges in converting revenue into profit. Revenue growth has been negative in recent years, with a notable decline of 1.5% in 2025, which is a concern for future growth prospects. The EBIT and EBITDA margins remain stable, suggesting operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 2.30 in 2025, indicating significant leverage and potential financial risk. Return on equity has decreased to 1.45% in 2025, down from 2.95% in 2024, showing reduced profitability for shareholders. The equity ratio is not explicitly calculated, but the high debt levels suggest a lower proportion of equity financing, which could limit financial flexibility.
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
Cash flow analysis indicates a concerning trend, with free cash flow growth rate declining by 58.6% in 2025. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.38, suggesting moderate cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.40, indicating that a significant portion of net income is not translating into free cash flow, which could impact future investments and debt servicing.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue3.80B3.77B4.12B4.16B3.41B2.89B
Gross Profit1.62B2.56B1.28B1.17B730.00M658.00M
EBITDA2.13B2.17B2.24B2.22B1.65B1.59B
Net Income133.00M133.00M326.00M64.00M19.00M-423.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets35.57B35.57B36.69B37.72B38.97B35.67B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.73B1.73B2.04B2.08B2.02B4.29B
Total Debt21.07B21.07B19.95B18.70B17.77B17.97B
Total Liabilities26.05B26.05B25.02B24.44B23.74B24.54B
Stockholders Equity9.17B9.17B11.04B12.57B14.42B10.34B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow1.79B608.00M515.00M560.00M861.00M294.00M
Operating Cash Flow1.93B1.51B1.63B1.74B1.47B1.34B
Investing Cash Flow-755.00M-126.00M-760.00M-943.00M-6.42B1.22B
Financing Cash Flow-1.70B-1.70B-911.00M-739.00M2.65B-576.00M

Transurban Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price14.87
Price Trends
50DMA
14.72
Positive
100DMA
14.43
Positive
200DMA
13.97
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.06
Positive
RSI
48.51
Neutral
STOCH
22.86
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:TCL, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 14.87 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.00, above the 50-day MA of 14.72, and above the 200-day MA of 13.97, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.51 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.86 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AU:TCL.

Transurban Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
75
Outperform
AU$31.30B23.8526.28%2.71%3.11%12.79%
64
Neutral
$7.01B29.893.78%8.26%9.78%0.19%
63
Neutral
$10.79B15.437.44%2.01%2.89%-14.66%
62
Neutral
€7.64B67.503.82%2.09%28.47%-50.19%
60
Neutral
$6.28B21.197.03%4.40%3.01%-23.84%
55
Neutral
€19.25B36.8111.42%1.37%1.19%1.09%
52
Neutral
$46.69B350.231.24%4.35%-4.30%-59.47%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:TCL
Transurban Group
14.87
2.47
19.91%
AU:QUB
Qube Holdings
4.69
0.92
24.50%
AU:BXB
Brambles
23.00
4.38
23.49%
AU:ALX
Atlas Arteria
4.84
0.52
11.93%
AU:AZJ
Aurizon Holdings
3.57
0.40
12.62%
AU:SGH
Seven Group Holdings Limited
45.31
-0.57
-1.24%

Transurban Group Corporate Events

Transurban Group Announces Quotation of New Securities on ASX
Dec 4, 2025

Transurban Group has announced the quotation of 7,687 fully paid ordinary units stapled securities on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX). This move is part of the company’s ongoing efforts to enhance its financial structure and potentially improve its market positioning, offering stakeholders an opportunity to engage with the company’s growth trajectory.

Transurban Announces Results of USD Bond Tender Offer
Dec 3, 2025

Transurban Group has announced the results of its USD Bond Tender Offer, confirming that US$259.68 million of its 3.375% Guaranteed Senior Secured Notes due 2027 were tendered by the early deadline. The company plans to accept up to US$118.5 million of these notes for purchase, having reached the increased maximum acceptance amount. This move is part of Transurban’s strategic financial management, potentially impacting its debt structure and financial flexibility.

Transurban Group Issues New Securities Under Employee Incentive Scheme
Dec 3, 2025

Transurban Group has announced the issuance of 101,080 fully paid ordinary units stapled securities, which will be quoted on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX). This move is part of an employee incentive scheme, indicating the company’s efforts to align employee interests with shareholder value and enhance operational efficiency.

Transurban Group Announces Dividend Distribution for 2025
Dec 2, 2025

Transurban Group has announced a new dividend distribution for its fully paid ordinary units stapled securities, with a distribution amount of AUD 0.34 per security. The dividend is related to a six-month period ending on December 31, 2025, with the record date set for December 31, 2025, and payment scheduled for February 24, 2026. This announcement reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to returning value to its shareholders and may positively impact its market positioning by reinforcing investor confidence.

Transurban Announces Interim Distribution and Reaffirms FY26 Guidance
Dec 2, 2025

Transurban Group announced an interim distribution of 34.0 cents per stapled security for the six months ending 31 December 2025, with the distribution paid from Transurban Holding Trust and its controlled entities. The company reaffirmed its FY26 distribution guidance of 69.0 cps, highlighting its commitment to providing returns to stakeholders. The Distribution Reinvestment Plan will be available for this distribution period, with no discount applied to the price of stapled securities issued under the plan. This announcement reflects Transurban’s ongoing strategy to maintain shareholder value and indicates stability in its financial operations.

Transurban Completes Euro Bond Tender Offers, Reduces Debt
Nov 27, 2025

Transurban Group has successfully settled its Euro Bond Tender Offers, purchasing and cancelling significant portions of its €500 million 2028 Notes and €750 million 2030 Notes. This financial maneuver reduces the company’s outstanding debt, potentially strengthening its financial position and enhancing its strategic flexibility in the infrastructure sector.

Transurban Secures €500 Million in Eurobond Market
Nov 26, 2025

Transurban Group has successfully closed a €500 million issuance of senior secured 12-year notes in the Eurobond market through its subsidiary, Transurban Finance Company Pty Ltd. This strategic financial move under its Euro Medium Term Note Programme is expected to strengthen Transurban’s financial position and enhance its ability to invest in infrastructure projects, potentially impacting its market positioning and offering benefits to its stakeholders.

Transurban Finalizes Euro Bond Tender Offers
Nov 25, 2025

Transurban Group has announced the final results of its Euro Bond Tender Offers, involving the tendering of €500 million 1.75% Fixed Rate Notes due 2028 and €750 million 3.00% Fixed Rate Notes due 2030. The acceptance amounts are approximately €259 million for the 2028 Notes and €150 million for the 2030 Notes, with a pro-ration factor of 57.6389% for the latter. The settlement is expected on 27 November 2025, contingent on a new Euro bond issuance. This strategic financial move is expected to optimize Transurban’s debt structure and potentially enhance its market positioning.

Transurban Announces Results of Euro Bond Tender Offers
Nov 25, 2025

Transurban Group has announced the indicative results of its Euro Bond Tender Offers, which involved the purchase of €500 million 1.75% Fixed Rate Notes due 2028 and €750 million 3.00% Fixed Rate Notes due 2030. The company plans to accept approximately €259 million of the 2028 Notes and €150 million of the 2030 Notes, with a pro-ration factor of 57.6389% for the latter. This move is part of Transurban’s strategic financial management, potentially impacting its financial stability and investor relations.

Transurban Updates Euro Medium Term Note Programme
Nov 17, 2025

Transurban Group has announced an update to its Euro Medium Term Note Programme through its financing vehicle, Transurban Finance Company Pty Ltd. This update involves a supplement to the Offering Circular lodged with the Singapore Exchange, which could enhance the company’s financial flexibility and market positioning. The announcement may have implications for investors and stakeholders as it reflects Transurban’s strategic financial management and potential for growth in international markets.

Transurban Group Launches USD and Euro Bond Tender Offers
Nov 17, 2025

Transurban Group has announced a tender offer through its financing vehicle, Transurban Finance Company Pty Ltd, for its US$550 million 3.375% Guaranteed Senior Secured Notes due 2027. Additionally, the company has initiated concurrent tender offers for two series of Euro Notes under its Euro Medium Term Note Programme. These tender offers are part of Transurban’s strategy to extend its debt maturity profile, conditional on a new issuance in the Eurobond market, which could enhance the company’s financial stability and market positioning.

Transurban Group Initiates Euro Bond Tender Offers to Extend Debt Maturity
Nov 17, 2025

Transurban Group has announced the launch of Euro Bond Tender Offers through its financing vehicle, Transurban Finance Company Pty Ltd. This initiative involves tender offers for €500 million and €750 million fixed rate notes due in 2028 and 2030, respectively. The tender offers are part of a strategy to extend the company’s debt maturity profile, contingent upon a new Eurobond market issuance. This move is expected to strengthen Transurban’s financial positioning and enhance its operational flexibility in the infrastructure sector.

Transurban Group Announces Cessation of Securities
Nov 10, 2025

Transurban Group announced the cessation of 8,000 unquoted performance awards due to unmet conditions as of October 31, 2025. This development may impact the company’s capital structure and could have implications for stakeholders, reflecting on the company’s operational adjustments and strategic decisions.

Transurban Group Issues Unquoted Performance Awards
Oct 24, 2025

Transurban Group has announced the issuance of 1,101,045 unquoted performance awards as part of an employee incentive scheme. This move is likely to impact the company’s operational strategies by aligning employee interests with corporate performance, potentially enhancing productivity and stakeholder value.

Transurban Group Announces Director’s Interest Change with New Performance Awards
Oct 24, 2025

Transurban Group has announced a change in the director’s interest, specifically regarding Michelle Jablko, who has been granted 217,816 Performance Awards under the company’s Long Term Incentive Plan. This grant, approved by security holders, is part of her remuneration package for the 2026 financial year, and it reflects the company’s commitment to aligning executive incentives with long-term performance goals. The awards are contingent upon meeting specific performance and vesting conditions over a four-year period, indicating a strategic focus on sustained growth and value creation for stakeholders.

Transurban Group Updates Director’s Interest in Securities
Oct 16, 2025

Transurban Group has announced a change in the director’s interest, specifically regarding Michelle Jablko, who has been granted 76,237 Deferred Short Term Incentive (STI) Securities under the company’s Deferred Short Term Incentive Plan. This change reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to aligning executive compensation with performance outcomes, potentially impacting stakeholder perceptions and reinforcing the company’s strategic focus on long-term value creation.

Transurban Group Announces Quotation of New Securities
Oct 16, 2025

Transurban Group has announced the quotation of 495,711 fully paid ordinary units stapled securities on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX). This move is part of an employee incentive scheme, which is expected to enhance employee engagement and align their interests with the company’s growth objectives, potentially impacting the company’s operational efficiency and market positioning positively.

Transurban Group Successfully Concludes 2025 Annual General Meetings
Oct 8, 2025

Transurban Group held its 2025 Annual General Meetings, where all proposed resolutions were successfully passed. Key outcomes included the re-election of directors Marina Go and Sarah Ryan, the adoption of the Remuneration Report, and the approval of deferred securities and performance awards for CEO Michelle Jablko. These decisions reflect strong shareholder support and are expected to reinforce the company’s leadership and strategic direction.

Transurban Group’s 2025 AGM Highlights Commitment to First Nations and Stakeholder Engagement
Oct 7, 2025

Transurban Group’s 2025 Annual General Meetings were held, chaired by Craig Drummond, with a focus on engaging with security holders both in person and online. The meetings highlighted the company’s commitment to incorporating First Nations perspectives in its operations and provided updates on its activities, while also facilitating real-time voting and questions from stakeholders.

Transurban Reports Strong Traffic Growth in September Quarter 2025
Oct 7, 2025

Transurban Group reported a 2.7% increase in Average Daily Traffic (ADT) for the September quarter of 2025, with 2.6 million trips per day across its operations. The growth was driven by increases in all markets, notably a 6.8% rise in North America and significant improvements in Melbourne and Brisbane. The company noted that despite adverse weather impacting heavy vehicle volumes in Sydney, there was still positive growth in traffic. The announcement underscores Transurban’s strong market position and its ability to adapt to changing conditions, which is crucial for stakeholders as the company navigates shifts in remote work practices and policy changes in the US.

Transurban Secures A$1.205 Billion Financing for WestConnex
Oct 1, 2025

Transurban Group has announced that WestConnex Finance Company Pty Limited, its financing arm for WestConnex, has successfully secured A$1,205 million in debt through a syndicated bank facility. This new facility, which will be used to repay existing debt, is set to mature in March 2027 and will rank equally with WestConnex’s existing senior debt. Transurban holds a 50% interest in WestConnex, and this financial move is expected to strengthen its operational stability and market position.

Transurban Secures $550 Million in Note Issuance
Sep 24, 2025

Transurban Group has successfully completed a US$550 million issuance of senior secured 10.5-year notes in the 144A / Reg S market. This financial move is expected to strengthen Transurban’s financial position, enabling further investment in infrastructure projects and potentially enhancing its market standing in the transportation sector.

Transurban Secures A$485 Million in New Financing
Sep 22, 2025

Transurban Group announced that its financing vehicle, Transurban Queensland Finance Pty Limited, has successfully raised A$485 million through a 10-year debt facility from an Asian term loan. This funding will be utilized to repay existing debt and cover transaction costs, reinforcing Transurban’s financial stability and strategic positioning in the infrastructure sector.

Transurban Group Prices US$550 Million in Senior Secured Notes
Sep 17, 2025

Transurban Group has announced the pricing of US$550 million in senior secured 10.5-year notes through its financing vehicle, Transurban Finance Company Pty Ltd, in the 144A / Reg S market. The proceeds from this issuance will be used to refinance maturing debt, with the notes expected to settle on September 24, 2025, and mature in March 2036. This strategic financial move is aimed at maintaining the company’s robust debt management strategy, ensuring continued stability and operational efficiency.

Transurban Group Announces 2025 Annual General Meetings
Sep 7, 2025

Transurban Group has announced the details of its 2025 Annual General Meetings for shareholders and unitholders, scheduled for October 8, 2025. The meetings will be held in a hybrid format, allowing both in-person and online participation, which reflects the company’s commitment to accessibility and stakeholder engagement.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 03, 2025