Transurban Group Ltd. (AU:TCL)
ASX:TCL
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Transurban Group
(Sydney:TCL)
Select Model
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
AU$16.00
â–²(17.99% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:03/20/26
The score is primarily constrained by mixed financial performance—declining profitability, negative revenue growth, high leverage, and weakening free cash flow. Technical indicators are mildly supportive, while valuation remains stretched due to a high P/E despite an attractive dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Concession-based recurring revenue
Transurban's core business is long-term concession tolling with electronic collection, producing predictable, contract-backed recurring revenues. This model provides multi-year visibility into cash flows and supports planning for maintenance, debt service and long-term investments.
Negative Factors
High leverage
A 2.30 debt-to-equity ratio implies sizable leverage that heightens interest expense sensitivity and refinancing risk. Elevated debt limits financial flexibility for capex or acquisitions and increases vulnerability to higher rates or traffic-related revenue shocks over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Concession-based recurring revenue
Transurban's core business is long-term concession tolling with electronic collection, producing predictable, contract-backed recurring revenues. This model provides multi-year visibility into cash flows and supports planning for maintenance, debt service and long-term investments.
Read all positive factors
Transurban Group (TCL) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$46.55B
Dividend Yield4.47%
Average Volume (3M)4.91M
Price to Earnings (P/E)96.9
Beta (1Y)0.31
Revenue Growth0.65%
EPS Growth532.10%
CountryAU
Employees4,100
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryIndustrial - Infrastructure Operations
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.15
Shares Outstanding3,120,183,800
10 Day Avg. Volume5,110,976
30 Day Avg. Volume4,909,140
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-5.36
Price to Book (P/B)4.73
Price to Sales (P/S)11.51
P/FCF Ratio71.37
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$13.86Price Target Upside2.20% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)0.23
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$3.99B
Transurban Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Transurban Group specializes in the complete lifecycle of toll road infrastructure, including its development, ongoing operation, management, and upkeep. The company maintains a portfolio of 21 toll roads situated across significant urban areas. T...
How the Company Makes Money
Transurban makes money primarily by charging tolls to motorists using its toll roads under long-term concession agreements. Revenue is generated when vehicles travel on its motorways and are billed via electronic tolling (cashless tolling), with t...
Transurban Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 19, 2025
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted significant revenue growth, successful cost management, and strong performance in North America. However, challenges such as construction impacts in Sydney, litigation, and issues with the West Gate Tunnel project were also noted. The overall sentiment is slightly positive due to the strong financial metrics and future growth prospects outweighing the challenges.Positive Updates
Revenue and Distribution Growth
Revenue increased by 5.6% and distributions grew by around 5%, with a plan to increase distributions by 6% next year.
Negative Updates
Impact of Construction in Sydney
Traffic growth impacted by construction projects in Sydney, expected to ease in FY '26.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and Distribution Growth
Revenue increased by 5.6% and distributions grew by around 5%, with a plan to increase distributions by 6% next year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
During the Transurban Group FY '25 Results Call, CEO Michelle Jablko and CFO Henry Byrne shared a comprehensive overview of the company's performance and future outlook. Key financial metrics included a 5.6% increase in revenue, a 7.4% growth in EBITDA, and a 5% rise in distributions, outperforming cost guidance. Traffic growth was noted across all markets, with North America showing a 6.4% increase. The company plans a 6% distribution increase next year, supported by successful cost management, with proportional operating costs remaining flat at $947 million. Transurban's strong liquidity, with $3.7 billion in corporate liquidity and $1.7 billion in balance sheet capacity, positions it well for future growth opportunities, including $13 billion worth of projects slated to open in the next year. Additionally, the company is exploring toll reform in New South Wales and potential new opportunities in North America and New Zealand, emphasizing its strategic focus on delivering long-term value to stakeholders.Transurban Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
65
Positive
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.00B | 3.77B | 4.12B | 4.16B | 3.41B | 2.89B |
| Gross Profit | 1.36B | 2.56B | 1.28B | 1.17B | 730.00M | 658.00M |
| EBITDA | 2.39B | 2.17B | 2.24B | 2.22B | 1.65B | 1.59B |
| Net Income | 478.00M | 133.00M | 326.00M | 64.00M | 19.00M | -423.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 34.69B | 35.57B | 36.69B | 37.72B | 38.97B | 35.67B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.23B | 1.73B | 2.04B | 2.08B | 2.02B | 4.29B |
| Total Debt | 20.46B | 21.07B | 19.95B | 18.70B | 17.77B | 17.97B |
| Total Liabilities | 25.55B | 26.05B | 25.02B | 24.44B | 23.74B | 24.54B |
| Stockholders Equity | 8.79B | 9.17B | 11.04B | 12.57B | 14.42B | 10.34B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2.03B | 608.00M | 515.00M | 560.00M | 861.00M | 294.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.16B | 1.51B | 1.63B | 1.74B | 1.47B | 1.34B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -757.00M | -126.00M | -760.00M | -943.00M | -6.42B | 1.22B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -969.00M | -1.70B | -911.00M | -739.00M | 2.65B | -576.00M |
Transurban Group Technical Analysis
Neutral
13.56
Price Trends
14.41
Positive
14.22
Positive
14.19
Positive
Market Momentum
0.21
Positive
51.86
Neutral
30.76
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:TCL, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 13.56 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.94, below the 50-day MA of 14.41, and below the 200-day MA of 14.19, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.21 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.86 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 30.76 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AU:TCL.
Transurban Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | AU$7.10B | 23.91 | 7.42% | 4.29% | 4.70% | -20.38% | |
64 Neutral | AU$5.42B | 34.14 | 7.97% | 3.11% | -4.99% | 120.98% | |
64 Neutral | AU$7.40B | 35.94 | 3.46% | 8.20% | 9.66% | -18.07% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
59 Neutral | AU$46.55B | 96.91 | 5.32% | 4.47% | 0.65% | 532.10% | |
58 Neutral | AU$9.06B | 41.46 | 7.13% | 2.07% | 18.00% | -2.14% | |
51 Neutral | AU$2.89B | 99.64 | 2.80% | 4.73% | 10.18% | -64.24% |
* Industrials Sector Average
AU:TCL
Transurban Group
14.92
1.08
7.77%
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Transurban Group Corporate Events
Transurban Queensland Prices A$720m in Long-Dated Secured Notes
May 28, 2026
Transurban Queensland Finance Pty Limited, the financing vehicle for Transurban Queensland Group, has priced A$720 million of senior secured notes in the Australian Medium Term Note market. The issuance comprises A$400 million of 7.25-year notes m...
Transurban Reports Lapse of 27,271 Unquoted Performance Awards
May 6, 2026
Transurban Group has notified the market of the cessation of 27,271 unquoted performance awards, after the conditional rights attached to these securities lapsed on 30 April 2026 because the performance conditions were not, or could not be, satisf...
WestConnex Raises A$1.21 Billion in Senior Secured Notes for Long-Dated Funding
Apr 21, 2026
WestConnex Finance Company, the financing vehicle for the WestConnex toll road network in which Transurban holds a 50% stake, has priced A$1.21 billion in senior secured notes under its Australian Medium Term Note Programme. The issuance comprises...
Transurban Posts Traffic Growth on New Roads and Heavy Vehicle Demand
Apr 8, 2026
Transurban reported a 3.0% increase in group average daily traffic for the March quarter 2026, with growth supported by new assets and resilient volumes despite macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty linked to the Middle East conflict. Sydney ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.