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Transurban Group
(Sydney:TCL)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
AU$14.00
▼(-3.65% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/17/26
The score is held up by strong cash generation and improved profitability, but is constrained by elevated leverage and declining equity. Technicals are weak with the stock trading below key moving averages, and valuation is a significant headwind due to the very high P/E despite a solid dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
High operating and free cash flow supports debt servicing, distributions and reinvestment in the toll-road portfolio. The scale of cash generation provides resilience and funding capacity despite substantial infrastructure capital requirements.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Higher leverage and declining equity reduce financial flexibility and increase sensitivity to refinancing, interest and project funding demands. This can constrain investment capacity or distributions if operating conditions weaken over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
High operating and free cash flow supports debt servicing, distributions and reinvestment in the toll-road portfolio. The scale of cash generation provides resilience and funding capacity despite substantial infrastructure capital requirements.
Read all positive factors
Transurban Group (TCL) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$43.40B
Dividend Yield4.93%
Average Volume (3M)4.91M
Price to Earnings (P/E)118.5
Beta (1Y)0.22
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS Growth174.53%
CountryAU
Employees3,957
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryIndustrial - Infrastructure Operations
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.12
Shares Outstanding3,120,183,800
10 Day Avg. Volume5,110,976
30 Day Avg. Volume4,909,140
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.67
Price to Book (P/B)5.80
Price to Sales (P/S)11.64
P/FCF Ratio23.33
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$13.83Price Target Upside-4.84% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering10
EPS Forecast (FY)0.16
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$4.00B
Transurban Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Transurban Group specializes in the complete lifecycle of toll road infrastructure, including its development, ongoing operation, management, and upkeep. The company maintains a portfolio of 21 toll roads situated across significant urban areas. T...
How the Company Makes Money
Transurban makes money primarily by collecting toll revenue from motorists using its toll roads and tunnels. Tolls are generally charged electronically (cashless tolling) via customer accounts/toll tags or via video matching of licence plates for ...
Transurban Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 19, 2025
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 10, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted significant revenue growth, successful cost management, and strong performance in North America. However, challenges such as construction impacts in Sydney, litigation, and issues with the West Gate Tunnel project were also noted. The overall sentiment is slightly positive due to the strong financial metrics and future growth prospects outweighing the challenges.Positive Updates
Revenue and Distribution Growth
Revenue increased by 5.6% and distributions grew by around 5%, with a plan to increase distributions by 6% next year.
Negative Updates
Impact of Construction in Sydney
Traffic growth impacted by construction projects in Sydney, expected to ease in FY '26.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and Distribution Growth
Revenue increased by 5.6% and distributions grew by around 5%, with a plan to increase distributions by 6% next year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
During the Transurban Group FY '25 Results Call, CEO Michelle Jablko and CFO Henry Byrne shared a comprehensive overview of the company's performance and future outlook. Key financial metrics included a 5.6% increase in revenue, a 7.4% growth in EBITDA, and a 5% rise in distributions, outperforming cost guidance. Traffic growth was noted across all markets, with North America showing a 6.4% increase. The company plans a 6% distribution increase next year, supported by successful cost management, with proportional operating costs remaining flat at $947 million. Transurban's strong liquidity, with $3.7 billion in corporate liquidity and $1.7 billion in balance sheet capacity, positions it well for future growth opportunities, including $13 billion worth of projects slated to open in the next year. Additionally, the company is exploring toll reform in New South Wales and potential new opportunities in North America and New Zealand, emphasizing its strategic focus on delivering long-term value to stakeholders.Transurban Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
46
Neutral
Cash Flow
66
Positive
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 3.85B | 3.77B | 4.12B | 4.16B | 3.41B |
| Gross Profit | 1.22B | 2.56B | 1.28B | 1.17B | 730.00M |
| EBITDA | 2.26B | 2.17B | 2.24B | 2.22B | 1.65B |
| Net Income | 366.00M | 133.00M | 326.00M | 64.00M | 19.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 35.19B | 35.57B | 36.69B | 37.72B | 38.97B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 2.13B | 1.73B | 2.04B | 2.08B | 2.02B |
| Total Debt | 20.91B | 21.07B | 19.95B | 18.70B | 17.77B |
| Total Liabilities | 27.34B | 26.05B | 25.02B | 24.44B | 23.74B |
| Stockholders Equity | 7.72B | 9.17B | 11.04B | 12.57B | 14.42B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.92B | 608.00M | 515.00M | 560.00M | 861.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.06B | 1.51B | 1.63B | 1.74B | 1.47B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -273.00M | -126.00M | -760.00M | -943.00M | -6.42B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.45B | -1.70B | -911.00M | -739.00M | 2.65B |
Transurban Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
64 Neutral | AU$7.09B | 33.06 | 3.46% | 7.59% | 9.66% | -18.07% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
60 Neutral | AU$4.90B | 27.79 | 7.97% | 3.39% | -4.99% | 120.98% | |
58 Neutral | AU$6.11B | 17.27 | 8.96% | 4.40% | 5.89% | 21.43% | |
53 Neutral | AU$2.65B | 89.66 | 2.80% | 4.46% | 10.18% | -64.24% | |
52 Neutral | AU$43.40B | 118.47 | 4.43% | 4.75% | ― | 174.53% |
* Industrials Sector Average
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Transurban Group Corporate Events
Transurban Updates Dividend Notice for Half-Year to June 2026
Aug 13, 2026
Transurban Group has updated its previously announced dividend and distribution notification for holders of its fully paid stapled securities, TCL, relating to the six-month period ended June 30, 2026. The revision, lodged on August 13, 2026, adds...
Transurban lodges 2026 corporate governance statement with ASX
Aug 13, 2026
Transurban Group has published its corporate governance statement for the financial year ended 30 June 2026, confirming it has lodged an Appendix 4G with the ASX and made the statement available on its website. The document, current as of 13 Augus...
Transurban Details FY26 Corporate Governance Compliance
Aug 13, 2026
Transurban has released its Corporate Governance Statement for the year ended 30 June 2026, outlining the governance framework and practices across its listed entities and the Transurban Holding Trust. The three boards share common directors, meet...
Transurban Outlines Basis of FY26 Results and Limits on Forward-Looking Data
Aug 13, 2026
Transurban released its FY26 results materials with extensive disclaimers on the nature and limitations of the information provided, stressing that the publication is a high-level summary and not tailored investment or financial advice. The group ...
Transurban posts higher earnings as new toll projects drive traffic and distributions
Aug 13, 2026
Transurban reported statutory profit after tax of $432 million for FY26, with proportional EBITDA rising 7.5% to $3.11 billion as proportional toll revenue grew 6.7% and Average Daily Traffic increased 2.2% across all regions. The group lifted its...
Transurban Secures A$915m Asian Term Loan Package for WestConnex Refinancing
Aug 7, 2026
Transurban said WestConnex Finance Company, the funding vehicle for the WestConnex motorway, has completed a A$915 million Asian term loan financing, comprising A$325 million of 8‑year, A$470 million of 10‑year and A$120 million of 12&...
Transurban reports lapse of unquoted performance awards
Jul 27, 2026
Transurban Group has notified the Australian Securities Exchange of the cessation of 91,779 unquoted performance awards. The awards lapsed after the conditional rights attached to these securities were not satisfied or became incapable of being me...
Transurban Advances Major Expansion of I-95 Express Lanes in Virginia
Jun 25, 2026
Transurban Group, a leading developer and operator of toll roads with a growing North American portfolio, is deepening its involvement in managed express lanes in the U.S. The company uses long-term partnerships with government transport agencies ...
Transurban Sets FY26 Payout and Dates for 2026 Annual Meetings
Jun 23, 2026
Transurban Group has declared a distribution of 35.0 cents per stapled security for the six months to 30 June 2026, to be paid from Transurban Holding Trust and its controlled entities, with no dividends from Transurban Holdings Limited or Transur...
Transurban backs NSW digital overhaul of unpaid tolls
Jun 22, 2026
Transurban and its investment partners have reached an agreement with the New South Wales Government to overhaul the unpaid tolls framework on Sydney’s toll roads, replacing traditional paper toll notices and administration fees with digital...
Transurban Expands Syndicated Debt Facility with A$825 Million Tranche
Jun 18, 2026
Transurban has expanded its existing syndicated bank debt facility by adding a new A$825 million tranche through its financing vehicle, Transurban Finance Company Pty Ltd. This addition increases the total facility size to A$3,475 million, with th...
Transurban Queensland Prices A$720m in Long-Dated Secured Notes
May 28, 2026
Transurban Queensland Finance Pty Limited, the financing vehicle for Transurban Queensland Group, has priced A$720 million of senior secured notes in the Australian Medium Term Note market. The issuance comprises A$400 million of 7.25-year notes m...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.