Australian Finance Group Ltd. (AU:AFG)
ASX:AFG
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Australian Finance Group Ltd.
(Sydney:AFG)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
AU$2.00
â–Ľ(-6.54% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:10/29/25
The overall score reflects significant financial challenges, including declining revenue and high leverage, which weigh heavily on the stock's outlook. Technical indicators suggest a lack of bullish momentum, while valuation metrics provide some support with a moderate P/E ratio and a decent dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Recurring trailing commissions and platform revenue
Trailing commissions and platform/service fees create a structural recurring revenue stream tied to loan stock rather than one-off originations. This supports predictable cash inflows, reduces revenue cyclicality over months, and provides a base to fund operations and reinvest in the broker network.
Negative Factors
Very high leverage and low equity base
A debt-to-equity ratio above 25x signals extreme leverage and a thin equity cushion. This structurally raises financial risk, limits strategic optionality, increases sensitivity to funding and interest rate shocks, and requires sustained cash generation to avoid balance-sheet stress over months.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Recurring trailing commissions and platform revenue
Trailing commissions and platform/service fees create a structural recurring revenue stream tied to loan stock rather than one-off originations. This supports predictable cash inflows, reduces revenue cyclicality over months, and provides a base to fund operations and reinvest in the broker network.
Read all positive factors
Australian Finance Group Ltd. (AFG) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$551.67M
Dividend Yield4.21%
Average Volume (3M)750.83K
Price to Earnings (P/E)6.6
Beta (1Y)0.70
Revenue Growth15.77%
EPS Growth41.14%
CountryAU
Employees317
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryFinancial - Mortgages
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.15
Shares Outstanding271,760,070
10 Day Avg. Volume626,907
30 Day Avg. Volume750,829
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.97
Price to Book (P/B)2.79
Price to Sales (P/S)1.54
P/FCF Ratio20.60
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$2.73Price Target Upside27.34% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.18
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$1.45B
Australian Finance Group Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Australian Finance Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the mortgage broking business in Australia. It operates in two segments, Aggregation and AFG Home Loans. The company is involved in the mortgage origination and managemen...
How the Company Makes Money
AFG primarily makes money by facilitating loans between borrowers and lenders and earning commissions tied to loan origination and ongoing loan balances. A key revenue stream is upfront commission (or similar origination-based fees) paid by lender...
Australian Finance Group Ltd. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
40
Negative
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.33B | 403.90M | 1.10B | 1.02B | 949.34M | 761.47M |
| Gross Profit | 818.40M | 116.40M | 363.15M | 338.54M | 204.19M | 161.29M |
| EBITDA | 78.00M | 59.20M | 291.82M | 262.17M | 141.19M | 113.86M |
| Net Income | 42.10M | 35.00M | 28.98M | 37.31M | 38.78M | 51.30M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 7.92B | 7.07B | 5.98B | 6.32B | 6.68B | 4.74B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 236.60M | 223.80M | 67.40M | 222.24M | 268.58M | 241.05M |
| Total Debt | 6.41B | 5.62B | 4.57B | 4.60B | 4.98B | 3.46B |
| Total Liabilities | 7.69B | 6.85B | 5.77B | 6.12B | 6.47B | 4.54B |
| Stockholders Equity | 231.40M | 222.10M | 194.42M | 179.06M | 184.32M | 202.98M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 44.10M | 30.10M | 20.94M | 51.23M | 40.01M | 52.38M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 45.90M | 35.90M | 38.78M | 58.26M | 52.68M | 59.35M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.21B | -1.05B | 13.19M | 303.47M | -1.46B | -506.70M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.22B | 1.02B | -52.59M | -408.07M | 1.45B | 511.86M |
Australian Finance Group Ltd. Technical Analysis
Positive
2.14
Price Trends
1.88
Positive
2.01
Negative
2.17
Negative
Market Momentum
<0.01
Negative
52.63
Neutral
77.84
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:AFG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.14 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.84, above the 50-day MA of 1.88, and below the 200-day MA of 2.17, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.63 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 77.84 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:AFG.
Australian Finance Group Ltd. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | AU$351.90M | 10.89 | 13.31% | 2.86% | -38.87% | 60.62% | |
57 Neutral | AU$765.92M | 4.16 | 12.70% | 11.71% | -8.26% | 5.26% | |
53 Neutral | AU$804.38M | 7.11 | 6.34% | 4.63% | 44.60% | -7.74% | |
52 Neutral | AU$551.67M | 6.60 | 18.57% | 4.21% | 15.77% | 41.14% | |
52 Neutral | AU$961.75M | 4.93 | 7.72% | 6.60% | 8.89% | 334.62% |
* Financial Sector Average
AU:AFG
Australian Finance Group Ltd.
2.03
0.26
14.56%
AU:PPM
Pepper Money Ltd
1.71
0.27
18.57%
AU:LFS
Latitude Group Holdings Ltd.
0.93
-0.13
-11.90%
AU:COG
COG Financial Services Limited
1.65
0.28
20.26%
AU:MYS
Mystate Limited
4.72
0.97
26.00%
Australian Finance Group Ltd. Corporate Events
AFG Releases Q3 FY2026 Mortgage Index Update
Apr 19, 2026
Australian Finance Group has released its Mortgage Index for the third quarter of the 2026 financial year, providing an update on mortgage activity across its national network. The disclosure signals the company’s ongoing commitment to marke...
AFG Director Greg Medcraft Increases Shareholding
Mar 3, 2026
Australian Finance Group Ltd has disclosed a change in the shareholding of director Greg Medcraft, in accordance with ASX listing requirements. Medcraft acquired 40,000 ordinary fully paid shares across two transactions on 27 February and 2 March ...
AFG Director Annette King Increases Indirect Shareholding
Feb 27, 2026
Australian Finance Group Ltd has reported a change in the relevant interests of non-executive director Annette King, as required under ASX listing rules. King’s indirect holding, via Red Dragon Pty Ltd as trustee for the Yin Yang Family Trus...
CBA Exits Substantial Holder Position in Australian Finance Group
Feb 25, 2026
Commonwealth Bank of Australia and its related entities have filed a notice that they have ceased to be substantial holders in Australian Finance Group Ltd as of 24 February 2026. The change reflects a reduction in their relevant voting interest b...
Australian Finance Group Announces Departure of Director Malcolm Watkins
Feb 24, 2026
Australian Finance Group Ltd has announced the cessation of Malcolm Stephen Watkins as a director, effective 24 February 2026, and lodged a Final Director’s Interest Notice with the ASX. The filing confirms that Watkins holds no relevant int...
AFG Co‑Founder Malcolm Watkins Retires After 32 Years of Service
Feb 24, 2026
Australian Finance Group Ltd. has announced the retirement of co-founder Malcolm Watkins as a Non-Executive Director, closing nearly 32 years of service in which he helped transform the Perth start-up into a major ASX-listed mortgage broking and f...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.