Australian Finance Group Ltd. (AFG) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$506.83M
• Dividend Yield: 4.21%
• Average Volume (3M): 750.83K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 12.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.90
• Revenue Growth: 14.37%
• EPS Growth: 20.75%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 317
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Financial - Mortgages
• EPS (TTM): 0.09
• Shares Outstanding: 271,760,070
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 626,907
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 750,829
• PEG Ratio: 0.97
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.79
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.54
• P/FCF Ratio: 20.60
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: AU$2.71
• Price Target Upside: 26.64% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.18
• Revenue Forecast (FY): AU$1.47B

• Rating: 52 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$2.00 ▼(-6.54% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 10/29/25
• Date: Action: Reiterated 10/29/25

The overall score reflects significant financial challenges, including declining revenue and high leverage, which weigh heavily on the stock's outlook. Technical indicators suggest a lack of bullish momentum, while valuation metrics provide some support with a moderate P/E ratio and a decent dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Broker aggregator platform & network

AFG’s core aggregator model creates durable distribution advantages: a large broker network and lender panel produce recurring referral flows and platform stickiness. Over months this supports steady origination volumes, barrier to entry for competitors, and predictable fee/tail commission streams that underpin long-term revenue.

Diversified fee streams (white‑label & platform)

Multiple durable revenue lines—upfront and trail commissions, white‑label product income, and platform/service fees—reduce reliance on one source. This diversification smooths cashflow cyclicality across housing cycles and supports margin resilience as fees and trail incomes persist while origination dips recover over subsequent quarters.

Positive cash generation & operating margins

A free cash flow to net income ratio near 0.84 and positive EBIT/EBITDA margins indicate underlying operational profitability and ability to convert profits into cash. Over 2–6 months this bolsters capacity to fund operations, pay trails/dividends and service obligations while management executes turnaround or growth initiatives.

Negative Factors

High financial leverage

A debt-to-equity ratio of 25.29 signals materially elevated leverage that limits financial flexibility. Persistently high debt increases interest burden, elevates refinancing and covenant risk, and constrains capital allocation (investment, buybacks, dividend resilience) over the medium term unless deleveraging occurs.

Sharp recent revenue decline

A -65% revenue shock is structurally significant: it erodes trail commission bases, reduces upfront commission flows and pressures economies of scale in platform services. Unless originations and loan balances recover, this decline can meaningfully compress recurring revenue and make margin recovery and debt servicing harder over coming quarters.

Weak cash conversion & falling FCF growth

Declining free cash flow growth and low operating cash flow conversion versus net income indicate challenges turning accounting profits into sustained liquidity. This undermines capacity to rebuild equity, reduce leverage or invest in platform improvements, leaving the business exposed during protracted housing or refinancing slowdowns.

Australian Finance Group Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Australian Finance Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the mortgage broking business in Australia. It operates in two segments, Aggregation and AFG Home Loans. The company is involved in the mortgage origination and management of home and commercial loans, and consumer asset finance; and distribution of own branded home loan products. It offers business loans, such as equipment finance, inventory finance, franchisee loans, debtor finance, commercial property finance, and working capital finance. The company also offers Suite360 platform, commercial and business broking, smart marketing platform, and analytics and business data solutions. The company was formerly known as Australian Finance Group Pty Ltd. Australian Finance Group Limited was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in West Perth, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

AFG generates revenue primarily through commissions and fees earned from lenders for services provided by its network of mortgage brokers. The company receives upfront commissions when brokers facilitate loans and ongoing trail commissions for the duration of the loan. Additionally, AFG earns income from its financial planning and insurance services, as well as from its proprietary technology platform that supports brokers in their operations. Significant partnerships with various financial institutions also contribute to AFG's earnings, as these relationships enhance the range of products and services available to clients, thereby increasing transaction volumes.

Australian Finance Group Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Australian Finance Group Ltd. faces challenges with declining revenue and profitability, coupled with high leverage. While operational efficiency is present, the company must address its financial risks and improve cash conversion to enhance financial stability.

Income Statement

The income statement shows a significant decline in revenue growth, with a negative growth rate of -65.22% in the latest period. Gross profit margin and net profit margin have also decreased compared to previous years, indicating reduced profitability. However, the company maintains a positive EBIT and EBITDA margin, suggesting some operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 25.29, indicating significant leverage and potential financial risk. The equity ratio is low, reflecting limited equity financing. These factors suggest a need for careful management of financial obligations.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a decline in free cash flow growth, but the company maintains a positive free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.84, indicating some ability to generate cash relative to net income. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is low, suggesting challenges in converting income into cash.

Breakdown	TTM	Jun 2025	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.33B	403.90M	1.10B	1.02B	949.34M	761.47M
Gross Profit	818.40M	116.40M	363.15M	338.54M	204.19M	161.29M
EBITDA	78.00M	59.20M	291.82M	262.17M	141.19M	113.86M
Net Income	42.10M	35.00M	28.98M	37.31M	38.78M	51.30M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	7.92B	7.07B	5.98B	6.32B	6.68B	4.74B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	236.60M	223.80M	67.40M	222.24M	268.58M	241.05M
Total Debt	6.41B	5.62B	4.57B	4.60B	4.98B	3.46B
Total Liabilities	7.69B	6.85B	5.77B	6.12B	6.47B	4.54B
Stockholders Equity	231.40M	222.10M	194.42M	179.06M	184.32M	202.98M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	44.10M	30.10M	20.94M	51.23M	40.01M	52.38M
Operating Cash Flow	45.90M	35.90M	38.78M	58.26M	52.68M	59.35M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.21B	-1.05B	13.19M	303.47M	-1.46B	-506.70M
Financing Cash Flow	1.22B	1.02B	-52.59M	-408.07M	1.45B	511.86M

Australian Finance Group Ltd. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 2.14
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:AFG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.14 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.94, above the 50-day MA of 2.03, and below the 200-day MA of 2.21, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.86 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.59 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:AFG.

Australian Finance Group Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PPM	69 Neutral	AU$1.02B	9.75	12.11%	11.71%	-6.49%	-5.40%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
COG	54 Neutral	AU$313.55M	14.93	12.36%	2.86%	-26.30%	40.12%
MYS	53 Neutral	AU$768.68M	16.10	5.92%	4.63%	26.01%	-17.55%
AFG	52 Neutral	AU$506.83M	12.00	16.81%	4.21%	14.37%	20.75%
LFS	52 Neutral	AU$966.95M	10.29	5.01%	6.60%	14.81%	―

Australian Finance Group Ltd. Corporate Events

AFG Director Greg Medcraft Increases Shareholding

Australian Finance Group Ltd has disclosed a change in the shareholding of director Greg Medcraft, in accordance with ASX listing requirements. Medcraft acquired 40,000 ordinary fully paid shares across two transactions on 27 February and 2 March 2026, increasing his direct holding from 110,000 to 150,000 shares and signalling a higher personal stake in the company.

The announcement reflects routine corporate governance and transparency obligations, ensuring investors are informed of changes in key executives’ equity interests. While the notice does not disclose strategic commentary, increased director ownership is typically viewed by the market as a sign of alignment between board members’ interests and those of shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AFG) stock is a Hold with a A$2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Australian Finance Group Ltd. stock, see the AU:AFG Stock Forecast page.

AFG Director Annette King Increases Indirect Shareholding

Australian Finance Group Ltd has reported a change in the relevant interests of non-executive director Annette King, as required under ASX listing rules. King’s indirect holding, via Red Dragon Pty Ltd as trustee for the Yin Yang Family Trust, increased through the acquisition of additional fully paid ordinary shares.

The transaction saw King’s indirect interest rise from 100,000 to 130,000 shares, reflecting continued board-level investment in the company. The disclosure underscores AFG’s compliance with corporate governance and transparency requirements for director dealings in its securities, providing investors with updated information on insider shareholdings.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AFG) stock is a Hold with a A$2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Australian Finance Group Ltd. stock, see the AU:AFG Stock Forecast page.

CBA Exits Substantial Holder Position in Australian Finance Group

Commonwealth Bank of Australia and its related entities have filed a notice that they have ceased to be substantial holders in Australian Finance Group Ltd as of 24 February 2026. The change reflects a reduction in their relevant voting interest below the substantial holding threshold, which may alter AFG’s institutional shareholder profile and could influence future governance dynamics and market perceptions of the stock.

Details of the specific transactions and changes in relevant interests are contained in annexures referenced in the notice, covering the period since the last substantial holding disclosure given to AFG. While the filing is primarily regulatory in nature, it signals a reshaping of AFG’s major shareholder base that investors and other stakeholders may monitor for potential shifts in strategic influence or market sentiment.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AFG) stock is a Hold with a A$2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Australian Finance Group Ltd. stock, see the AU:AFG Stock Forecast page.

Australian Finance Group Announces Departure of Director Malcolm Watkins

Australian Finance Group Ltd has announced the cessation of Malcolm Stephen Watkins as a director, effective 24 February 2026, and lodged a Final Director’s Interest Notice with the ASX. The filing confirms that Watkins holds no relevant interests in the company’s securities as a registered holder at the time of his departure, providing investors with updated governance and ownership information.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AFG) stock is a Hold with a A$2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Australian Finance Group Ltd. stock, see the AU:AFG Stock Forecast page.

AFG Co‑Founder Malcolm Watkins Retires After 32 Years of Service

Australian Finance Group Ltd. has announced the retirement of co-founder Malcolm Watkins as a Non-Executive Director, closing nearly 32 years of service in which he helped transform the Perth start-up into a major ASX-listed mortgage broking and financial services business. Watkins, who moved to a non-executive role in 2022, was instrumental in building the company’s core technology platforms for mortgage brokers, as well as overseeing technology development, electronic delivery systems and national marketing.

Chairman Greg Medcraft credited Watkins with being a driving force behind AFG’s broker technology and broader industry leadership, while Watkins highlighted AFG’s scale, strong balance sheet and clear strategic priorities as positioning it well for continued growth. His departure marks a significant leadership transition, but the company emphasised its ongoing role in promoting competition and choice in the Australian mortgage market and expressed confidence in its future trajectory.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AFG) stock is a Hold with a A$2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Australian Finance Group Ltd. stock, see the AU:AFG Stock Forecast page.

Australian Finance Group Sets Date for HY2026 Results and Investor Call

Australian Finance Group Ltd has announced it will release its half-year 2026 financial results on Wednesday, 18 February 2026. The company’s CEO David Bailey and CFO Luca Pietropiccolo will host a conference call and presentation for analysts and investors at 11:00am AEDT on the same day, underscoring AFG’s ongoing engagement with the investment community and providing a formal forum for stakeholders to receive and question the latest financial and operational performance update.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AFG) stock is a Hold with a A$2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Australian Finance Group Ltd. stock, see the AU:AFG Stock Forecast page.

AFG Releases Q2 FY2026 Mortgage Index Update

Australian Finance Group Ltd has released its AFG Mortgage Index for the second quarter of the 2026 financial year, providing an update on mortgage activity and trends within its network. The publication of this index offers stakeholders insight into housing finance dynamics and AFG’s role in the mortgage market, although specific operational or financial metrics for the quarter were not disclosed in the announcement.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AFG) stock is a Hold with a A$2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Australian Finance Group Ltd. stock, see the AU:AFG Stock Forecast page.