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Pepper Money Ltd (AU:PPM)
ASX:PPM

Pepper Money Ltd (PPM) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:PPM

Pepper Money Ltd

(Sydney:PPM)

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Neutral 57 (OpenAI - 5.2)
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Neutral 57 (OpenAI - 5.2)
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Neutral 57 (OpenAI - 5.2)
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Neutral 57 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:57Neutral
Price Target:
AU$2.00
▼(-8.68% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/18/26
The score is primarily constrained by financial risk—extreme leverage and volatile cash flow (including negative 2025 cash generation). Valuation is a key positive with a low P/E and very high dividend yield, but weak technical positioning below major moving averages limits near-term confidence.
Positive Factors
Specialist lending business model
A focused specialist/non‑conforming lending model supports structurally higher interest margins and differentiated customer access versus prime banks. Over the medium term this niche underwriting expertise and pricing power underpin durable revenue opportunities and customer stickiness through broker channels.
Diversified fee and servicing income
Recurring servicing fees, origination fees and retained securitisation economics diversify revenue beyond pure net interest spread. These structurally different cash flows can stabilize earnings through cycles, reduce total earnings volatility, and create annex income streams tied to portfolio scale.
Revenue scale and positive core profitability
Sizable revenue growth and generally positive net margins over multiple years indicate underlying demand for Pepper’s products and the ability to generate earnings. Sustained scale and operating profitability support reinvestment, servicing capability and long‑term competitiveness when underwriting discipline holds.
Negative Factors
Extremely high leverage
Debt-to-equity at very high multiples materially reduces the equity cushion and magnifies downside risk from credit deterioration or funding shocks. Over a 2–6 month horizon this structural leverage restricts flexibility, heightens refinancing risk and increases sensitivity to rate and spread moves.
Volatile and recently negative cash generation
Inconsistent cash conversion with a sharp FCF reversal in 2025 implies reliance on external funding and raises sustainability concerns for dividends and debt servicing. For a non‑bank lender that uses securitisation and warehouses, persistent cash volatility increases funding and operational risk.
Inconsistent earnings quality and margin swings
Large year‑to‑year margin and profit swings reflect sensitivity to credit cycles, product mix and provisioning. This reduces predictability of core earnings and complicates capital planning and risk management, making multi‑period forecasting and provisioning less reliable.

Pepper Money Ltd (PPM) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Pepper Money Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionPepper Money Limited operates as a non-bank lender in the mortgage and asset finance markets in Australia and New Zealand. It operates through three segments: Mortgages, Asset Finance, and Loan and Other Servicing. The Mortgages segment engages in the financing of residential home loans and small balance commercial real estate loans. The Asset Finance segment finances a range of asset types for consumer and commercial customers. The Loan and Other Servicing segment provides independent loan servicing for mortgages and personal loans, and broker administration servicing. The company was formerly known as Pepper Group Pty Limited. The company was incorporated in 2000 and is based in North Sydney, Australia.
How the Company Makes MoneyPPM primarily makes money by originating and managing loans and earning income from the spread between (a) interest it receives from borrowers and (b) its own funding costs (including wholesale funding and securitisation). Key revenue streams typically include: (1) Net interest income: interest charged on home loans and asset-finance loans, less interest and other costs paid to fund those loans. Loan pricing reflects borrower risk, product features, and market rates, and specialist lending generally supports higher margins than prime lending (actual margin levels: null). (2) Fee and other income: borrower and loan-related fees such as establishment/origination fees, ongoing account or servicing fees, and other administrative fees where applicable under product terms and regulation (specific fee schedules and contribution: null). (3) Loan servicing and portfolio administration income: income earned for servicing loans (e.g., payment processing, customer administration, arrears management) including where Pepper services loans that are funded via securitisation vehicles or for other owners of receivables (specific third-party servicing arrangements and amounts: null). (4) Securitisation/warehouse-related economics: PPM commonly funds lending via warehouse facilities and securitisation, where it may retain economic interests (e.g., residual income or subordinated notes) and/or earn fees tied to management of the securitised portfolios (exact structures and earnings impact: null). Significant factors influencing earnings include loan origination volumes, credit performance (arrears, losses, recoveries), funding costs and access to securitisation/warehouse markets, and distribution effectiveness through broker/intermediary channels. Specific named partnerships, counterparties, and quantitative breakdowns of revenue are null.

Pepper Money Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Strong revenue growth and generally positive profitability are offset by very high leverage (debt-to-equity ~19–27x) and volatile/weak cash generation, including a sharp swing to materially negative operating and free cash flow in 2025.
Income Statement
74
Positive
Revenue scaled meaningfully over the period, with particularly strong growth in 2025 (annual revenue growth of ~50%). Profitability is generally positive (net margins ~6–16% in most years) and net income remains positive from 2021–2025, but earnings quality looks less consistent given the sharp net margin compression versus 2021–2022 and the loss in 2020. Reported operating profitability shows large swings and some inconsistencies across years, which increases confidence risk around comparability.
Balance Sheet
46
Neutral
The balance sheet is highly levered: debt-to-equity remains extremely elevated (~19–27x across 2020–2025), leaving limited equity buffer if credit performance weakens. Returns on equity are positive in most years (~12–19% from 2021–2025), but that is supported by heavy leverage, which amplifies downside risk. Total assets and debt both remain large relative to equity, keeping financial flexibility constrained.
Cash Flow
38
Negative
Cash generation is volatile and recently weak: operating cash flow and free cash flow swung from strongly positive in 2024 to materially negative in 2025, with free cash flow growth sharply down (~-152%). Multiple earlier years also show negative operating/free cash flow (2020–2022), pointing to uneven cash conversion and potential funding reliance during weaker periods. While 2023–2024 demonstrated the ability to generate cash, the 2025 reversal is a clear near-term concern.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.45B1.58B1.52B1.06B771.30M
Gross Profit1.39B1.53B417.70M987.60M699.60M
EBITDA1.13B1.29B0.00801.90M545.10M
Net Income104.60M98.80M110.70M141.00M120.80M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets18.40B17.47B20.21B19.92B17.27B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.27B1.24B1.53B1.24B1.31B
Total Debt17.42B16.47B19.26B18.98B16.52B
Total Liabilities17.53B16.62B19.34B18.99B16.63B
Stockholders Equity869.90M855.60M825.40M801.90M636.40M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-720.50M2.59B91.20M-2.31B-3.00B
Operating Cash Flow-714.80M2.60B98.30M-2.30B-2.99B
Investing Cash Flow-5.70M-49.30M-7.50M-87.60M-266.40M
Financing Cash Flow761.30M-2.85B194.30M2.32B3.68B

Pepper Money Ltd Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price2.19
Price Trends
50DMA
2.06
Negative
100DMA
2.14
Negative
200DMA
2.00
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.07
Positive
RSI
29.48
Positive
STOCH
13.04
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:PPM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.19 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.13, above the 50-day MA of 2.06, and above the 200-day MA of 2.00, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 29.48 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.04 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:PPM.

Pepper Money Ltd Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
64
Neutral
AU$138.48M6.2972.15%19.38%
59
Neutral
AU$675.90M5.4210.55%4.81%5.01%85.56%
57
Neutral
AU$792.87M9.1512.70%11.71%-6.49%-5.40%
52
Neutral
AU$977.35M11.507.72%6.60%14.81%
50
Neutral
AU$1.06B4.1012.13%11.83%2.11%15.71%
43
Neutral
AU$66.64M-1.10-43.76%-9.56%-392.31%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:PPM
Pepper Money Ltd
1.77
0.58
48.44%
AU:CCP
Credit Corp Group Limited
9.93
-3.65
-26.90%
AU:PLT
Plenti Group Ltd.
0.76
-0.05
-6.17%
AU:LFS
Latitude Group Holdings Ltd.
0.94
-0.11
-10.48%
AU:MME
MoneyMe Ltd.
0.08
-0.05
-39.26%
AU:LFG
Liberty Financial Group Ltd
3.49
0.23
6.92%

Pepper Money Ltd Corporate Events

Challenger Trims Bid but Labels Offer for Pepper Money ‘Best and Final’
Mar 16, 2026

Challenger Limited has submitted a revised confidential, non-binding and conditional joint proposal with Pepper Group ANZ HoldCo Limited to acquire Pepper Money Limited. The new offer cuts the bid from $2.60 to $2.25 per Pepper Money share, adjusted for the final fully franked 2025 dividend of 7.8 cents per share and any special dividend.

Challenger has described the reduced bid as its best and final offer in the absence of a superior proposal, signalling a firmer negotiation stance on valuation. However, discussions remain incomplete and there is no certainty a transaction will proceed, leaving Pepper Money shareholders and the market awaiting further disclosures under Challenger’s continuous disclosure obligations.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:PPM) stock is a Buy with a A$2.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pepper Money Ltd stock, see the AU:PPM Stock Forecast page.

Challenger Cuts Takeover Offer for Pepper Money Amid Weakening Market Conditions
Mar 16, 2026

Pepper Money has disclosed that Challenger Limited has revised its non-binding indicative proposal to acquire 100% of Pepper Money’s shares via a scheme of arrangement, cutting the offer price from A$2.60 to A$2.25 per share. The new price is described as Challenger’s best and final offer in the absence of a superior bid and is inclusive of the CY2025 final dividend and any special dividend.

The company’s Independent Board Committee will now assess the reduced offer against prevailing market conditions and Pepper Money’s standalone prospects, while advising shareholders that no immediate action is required. The development underscores the impact of deteriorating market and operating conditions on deal valuations and leaves transaction certainty unresolved, with Pepper Money committing to keep the market informed under its continuous disclosure obligations.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:PPM) stock is a Buy with a A$2.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pepper Money Ltd stock, see the AU:PPM Stock Forecast page.

Pepper Money updates market on director Mario Rehayem’s revised equity holdings
Mar 10, 2026

Pepper Money Limited has disclosed a change in the interests of its director, Mario Rehayem, involving a rebalancing between performance-based rights and fully paid ordinary shares. The notice details that 764,560 vested executive performance rights and 172,220 unrestricted STIP restricted rights were converted at nil consideration into 936,780 fully paid ordinary shares, altering the mix but not indicating any cash transaction.

The filing also outlines Rehayem’s indirect holdings through GIMAR Superfund Pty Ltd and his wife, Denise Aoun, who holds both ordinary shares in Pepper Money and tracker shares in related entity Pepper Global TopCo Limited. These cross-holdings underscore the concentrated alignment of the director’s interests with the group’s equity structure, providing investors with updated transparency on governance and ownership dynamics within the Pepper Money group.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:PPM) stock is a Buy with a A$2.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pepper Money Ltd stock, see the AU:PPM Stock Forecast page.

Pepper Money Seeks ASX Quotation for Additional Ordinary Shares
Mar 9, 2026

Pepper Money Ltd has applied for quotation of 39,490 new ordinary fully paid shares on the Australian Securities Exchange, with an issue date of 9 March 2026. The modest increase in quoted securities follows previously announced transactions and will marginally expand the company’s listed equity base, providing additional tradable stock for existing and potential investors.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:PPM) stock is a Buy with a A$2.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pepper Money Ltd stock, see the AU:PPM Stock Forecast page.

Pepper Money to List 4.7 Million New Ordinary Shares on ASX
Mar 9, 2026

Pepper Money Ltd has applied to the ASX for quotation of 4,663,780 new ordinary fully paid shares, to be issued and listed on 9 March 2026 under its existing ticker PPM. The additional securities arise from the exercise or conversion of existing options or other convertible instruments, modestly expanding the company’s share base and potentially enhancing its liquidity in the market.

The move reflects ongoing capital structuring activity rather than a fresh capital raising, indicating that prior equity-linked incentives or funding arrangements are now being crystallised into ordinary equity. For shareholders and investors, the quotation of these new shares slightly dilutes existing holdings but may improve trading depth and facilitate broader institutional and retail participation in Pepper Money’s stock.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:PPM) stock is a Buy with a A$2.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pepper Money Ltd stock, see the AU:PPM Stock Forecast page.

Pepper Money Reports Lapse of Executive Rights and Change in Issued Capital
Mar 9, 2026

Pepper Money has notified the market of a change in its issued capital structure following the lapse of certain executive rights. The company reported that 293,151 executive rights, classified as PPMAA securities, have ceased because the performance or vesting conditions attached to them were not satisfied or became incapable of being met.

The cessation of these conditional rights marginally reduces Pepper Money’s potential future dilution from equity-based remuneration. This adjustment reflects outcomes under the group’s long-term incentive arrangements for executives and may be read as a signal on performance hurdles and incentive realisation without affecting currently listed ordinary shares.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:PPM) stock is a Buy with a A$2.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pepper Money Ltd stock, see the AU:PPM Stock Forecast page.

Pepper Money Issues New Tranche of Unquoted Employee Rights
Mar 9, 2026

Pepper Money Limited has notified the market of the issue of 18,589 unquoted employee rights under its employee incentive scheme, effective 9 March 2026. The new rights, which are not intended to be quoted on the ASX, reflect the company’s continued use of equity-based compensation to align staff interests with shareholders and support long-term retention.

While the size of this issuance is modest relative to the company’s total capital base, it incrementally increases Pepper Money’s pool of employee equity and may contribute to future dilution if the rights vest and convert. The move underscores ongoing competition for talent in the financial services sector, where performance rights and similar instruments are commonly used to attract and retain key employees.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:PPM) stock is a Buy with a A$2.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pepper Money Ltd stock, see the AU:PPM Stock Forecast page.

Pepper Money Plans Modest Equity Placement on ASX
Mar 9, 2026

Pepper Money has notified the ASX of a proposed issue of up to 39,490 ordinary fully paid shares under a placement or similar mechanism. The new securities, to be issued and quoted on 9 March 2026 subject to ASX procedures, represent a modest equity raising that marginally increases the company’s share capital and provides additional funding flexibility.

The company has lodged an Appendix 3B outlining the terms of the proposed share issue and applying for quotation of the new securities on the ASX. While small in scale, the placement underscores Pepper Money’s continued use of the equity market for capital management, with limited immediate dilution but incremental implications for existing shareholders’ ownership percentages.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:PPM) stock is a Buy with a A$2.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pepper Money Ltd stock, see the AU:PPM Stock Forecast page.

Pepper Money Updates CEO Mario Rehayem’s Equity Incentive Holdings
Feb 25, 2026

Pepper Money has reported changes to the equity interests of managing director Mario Rehayem, reflecting updates to his direct and indirect holdings in the company and related entities. His interests include ordinary shares held personally and via GIMAR Superfund, as well as his wife’s holdings in Pepper Money and tracker shares in Pepper Global TopCo, which ultimately controls a majority of Pepper Money’s stock.

The latest notice details the vesting of 764,560 executive performance rights and the release of 172,220 executive STIP restricted rights, offset by the lapse or reclassification of an equivalent number of non-vested rights. These changes, made with no cash consideration, primarily affect the structure and status of Rehayem’s incentive-based equity rather than the company’s capital base, and signal ongoing alignment of executive remuneration with performance outcomes and shareholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:PPM) stock is a Hold with a A$2.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pepper Money Ltd stock, see the AU:PPM Stock Forecast page.

Challenger Confirms Talks on Strategic Joint Bid for Pepper Money
Feb 8, 2026

Challenger Limited has confirmed it is in advanced talks over a potential transaction to jointly acquire Pepper Money Limited, partnering with Pepper Group ANZ HoldCo Limited. Under the proposed scheme of arrangement, Pepper Group would initially hold at least its current interest in Pepper Money, while Challenger’s stake would be capped at 25% of the lender’s total shares.

The contemplated investment is designed to give Challenger long-term access to fixed income assets that could underpin growth and enhance returns in its retirement-focused business. Challenger stressed it will maintain capital discipline, does not intend to raise common equity to fund any deal, and expects any transaction to be strategic and earnings-per-share accretive, while cautioning there is no certainty the discussions will lead to a completed offer.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:PPM) stock is a Hold with a A$2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pepper Money Ltd stock, see the AU:PPM Stock Forecast page.

Pepper Money Sets Date for 2025 Full-Year Results and Investor Briefing
Jan 20, 2026

Pepper Money has scheduled the release of its full-year results for the 12 months to 31 December 2025 on 19 February 2026, and will host a virtual briefing that morning led by Chief Executive Officer Mario Rehayem and Chief Financial Officer Therese McGrath. The online event, which requires pre-registration, signals the non-bank lender’s continued engagement with investors and analysts ahead of what could be a closely watched update on its performance and strategic direction in Australia and New Zealand’s competitive lending markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:PPM) stock is a Hold with a A$2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pepper Money Ltd stock, see the AU:PPM Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Mar 18, 2026