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Atomera (ATOM)
NASDAQ:ATOM
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Atomera
(NASDAQ:ATOM)
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Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
$3.00
▼(-45.26% Downside)
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance—minimal revenue scale, heavy losses, and persistent cash burn—despite low leverage. Technical indicators are a key positive with improving near-term momentum, while valuation is constrained by a loss-making profile and no dividend. The latest earnings call was mixed, with meaningful technology/customer progress offset by the STMicroelectronics setback and continued losses.
Positive Factors
Proprietary MST technology
Atomera's MST is a durable competitive asset: a materials/process IP designed to improve silicon device performance and reduce power. As a technology licensor, MST provides a scalable, high‑leverage business model if customers adopt it across nodes and end markets, supporting long‑term royalty upside and differentiation versus pure R&D peers.
Multiple large‑customer engagements
Ongoing engagements and record wafer processing indicate meaningful validation and a steady qualification pipeline. Multi‑customer, multi‑segment traction (logic, DRAM, power, RF‑SOI) reduces single‑customer risk and supports durable adoption if technical results convert into licensing and royalties over the medium term.
Low leverage and modest debt
A conservative capital structure limits solvency risk and preserves strategic optionality for additional R&D, qualification activities, or selective partnerships. Low debt improves flexibility to fund commercialization milestones and weather multi‑quarter adoption cycles that are typical in semiconductor materials licensing.
Negative Factors
Minimal and declining revenue
Revenue scale is the central structural weakness: licensing/royalty models require multi‑customer adoption to drive durable cash flow. Persistently negligible and falling top line undermines ability to cover fixed costs, delays break‑even, and makes future investment and commercial commitments more dependent on successful conversion of current engagements into paying contracts.
Persistent cash burn
Sustained negative operating and free cash flow implies ongoing reliance on external funding unless revenue ramps materially. Over the medium term this erodes shareholder equity, constrains discretionary spending, and raises dilution/execution risk if qualification timelines extend or customers delay adopting MST.
Major customer program setback
Loss of STMicroelectronics as a near‑term royalty path is a structural setback: it reduces near‑term revenue visibility and highlights execution and architecture fit risks with major foundry/IDM partners. This increases dependence on other engagements converting and lengthens the timeline for sustainable licensing income.
Atomera (ATOM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$181.53M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)464.54K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.41
Revenue Growth-94.26%
EPS Growth3.20%
CountryUS
Employees20
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySemiconductors
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.14
Shares Outstanding31,681,032
10 Day Avg. Volume463,975
30 Day Avg. Volume464,540
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.77
Price to Book (P/B)3.71
Price to Sales (P/S)1048.70
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.86
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.41K
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit-262.85
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-7.96
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$7.00Price Target Upside27.74% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Atomera Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAtomera Incorporated develops, commercializes, and licenses proprietary materials, processes, and technologies for the semiconductor industry in North America and the Asia Pacific. The company's lead technology is the Mears Silicon Technology, a thin film of reengineered silicon that can be applied as a transistor channel enhancement to CMOS-type transistors. Its customers include foundries, integrated device manufacturers, fabless semiconductor manufacturers, original equipment manufacturers, and electronic design automation companies. The company was formerly known as Mears Technologies, Inc. and changed its name to Atomera Incorporated in January 2016. Atomera Incorporated was incorporated in 2001 and is headquartered in Los Gatos, California.
How the Company Makes MoneyAtomera generates revenue primarily through licensing its MST technology to semiconductor manufacturers. The company charges fees for the license agreements that allow clients to integrate Atomera's technology into their production processes. Additionally, Atomera may earn revenue from research and development contracts, collaborations with industry partners, and potential royalties based on the sales of products that utilize MST. Key partnerships with major semiconductor firms are crucial, as they not only provide direct revenue but also validate Atomera's technology, leading to wider adoption and increased sales opportunities.
Atomera Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call highlighted substantial and potentially high-value technical progress across multiple high-growth semiconductor markets—most notably definitive GAA silicon results, active wafer runs, a commercial GaN customer and a strategic OEM partnership. However, these technical advancements have yet to translate into meaningful revenue; the company remains pre-revenue on a commercial scale, reported ongoing net losses, experienced a material cash decline in 2025, and relied on dilutive equity financings. Commercial adoption timelines remain uncertain (6–9 month test cycles and customer validation), and 2026 expense accretion tied to bonus accruals will require achieving aggressive milestones. Overall, the technical momentum is strong but balanced by near-term financial and execution risks.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Breakthrough Gate-All-Around (GAA) Results
Obtained silicon results showing MST can be deposited into nanosheet GAA structures and delivers superior diffusion blocking versus currently used silicon arsenic; company expects customer evaluations and potential implementations with leading GAA customers (TSMC, Samsung, Intel and a new Japanese manufacturer) over the next few quarters.
Advancement of Multiple Target Markets
Progress reported across DRAM (wafer-based offerings with promising preliminary results pending final data in ~1 month), RF-SOI (wafer-based solutions targeting RF switch and LNA markets), power devices (TrenchFET, HBT) and GaN (first commercial customer running GaN-on-silicon wafers with MST).
GaN and Government-Funded Development
GaN-on-silicon concept paper approved to proposal stage for a Power America project, marking the company's first external development funding application and yielding multiple letters of support from potential customers and partners.
Record Wafer Runs and Increased Customer Engagement
Kicked off a record number of wafer runs in 2025 with multiple customers; many runs sent to customers' fabs and final customer test cycles expected to take 6-9 months—setting up potential joint development agreements and licensing opportunities.
R&D Investment and Improved Development Efficiency
R&D increased to $10.2M in 2025 (up $794k, +8.4% YoY) to support multiple device fabrication vendors and new runs; company noted improved efficiency using AI-driven development and TCAD simulation to guide experiments.
Quarterly Operating Improvement
Q4 2025 non-GAAP net loss improved to $3.3M ($0.10/share) from $4.4M in Q3 2025 (a reduction of ~25%) and from $3.9M in Q4 2024 (improvement of ~15%), driven in part by reversal of bonus accrual.
Strategic Partnership with Equipment OEM
Announced a strategic partnership with a large equipment OEM to accelerate validation and potential adoption of MST in advanced-node manufacturing, leveraging the OEM's industry influence to facilitate customer trials.
Negative Updates
Very Low Revenue Base
Total revenue for 2025 was only $65,000 (consisting of NRE fees and MST CAD licensing), with only modest Q1 2026 revenue expected in the range of $50,000 to $100,000—indicating minimal near-term product revenue.
Sustained Net Losses and Rising GAAP Expense
GAAP net loss increased to $20.2M in 2025 from $18.4M in 2024 (increase of $1.8M, +9.8%). Non-GAAP net loss rose to $16.1M from $15.4M (+$0.7M, +4.5%). GAAP operating expenses increased ~8.3% to $20.9M.
Cash Decline and Cash Burn
Cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments fell to $19.2M at Dec 31, 2025 from $26.7M at year-end 2024 (decline of $7.5M, -28.1%). The company used $14.9M of cash in operating activities during 2025, raising concern about runway and financing needs.
Equity Dilution and Lower Post-Year-End Share Price
Issued ~1.6M shares in 2025 under ATM for net proceeds of ~$7.6M (avg $5.15/share) and sold an additional ~1.3M shares after year-end for ~$3.2M (avg $2.47/share), increasing dilution to 32.4M shares outstanding and reflecting weaker share price in follow-on sales.
Commercial Adoption and Timing Uncertainty
Despite technical validation, commercialization depends on customer adoption and integration (especially for GAA), which can be lengthy and complex; customer test cycles typically take 6-9 months and licensing/commercial deals remain prospective rather than recognized revenue.
Increased 2026 Operating Expense Outlook and Bonus Accruals
2026 non-GAAP operating expense guidance is ~$18.5M (a 17% increase 'on paper'); the company notes this is largely due to timing of executive bonus accruals and could be ~8% higher on a normalized basis—earning back withheld bonuses will require aggressive commercial milestones.
Setback with Previous Partner and Ongoing Dependency on Partnerships
Company referenced a prior setback with ST (STMicro) and remains reliant on strategic partners and large OEMs to drive trials and adoption; this dependency adds execution risk despite technical wins.
Company Guidance
Atomera gave narrow near‑term guidance and clear cost guidance: for Q1 2026 it expects revenue of $50,000–$100,000 from MST wafer shipments (no guidance beyond the quarter), and it forecasts 2026 non‑GAAP operating expenses of about $18.5 million (a reported 17% increase versus 2025’s $15.9M, or roughly an 8% increase when normalized for the timing of the executive bonus accrual); management also noted the $669,000 of 2025 executive bonus withheld may be paid in 2026 if aggressive commercial milestones are met. Key year‑end metrics discussed were $19.2M in cash, cash equivalents and short‑term investments (vs. $26.7M at 12/31/2024), $14.9M cash used in operating activities in 2025 ($3.2M in Q4), 2025 non‑GAAP net loss of $16.1M ($0.52/share) and Q4 non‑GAAP net loss of $3.3M ($0.10/share), 32.4M shares outstanding, ~1.6M shares sold under the 2025 ATM for ~$7.6M net (avg $5.15), plus a post‑year‑end sale of ~1.3M shares for ~$3.2M net (avg $2.47).Atomera Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Overall financial profile is weak: minimal and declining TTM revenue, deeply negative profitability (including negative gross margin), and sustained cash burn (TTM operating/FCF around -$14.7M). The main offset is a relatively strong balance sheet with low leverage and modest debt, but continued losses are eroding equity.Income Statement
ATOM remains in a very weak earnings profile: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue is minimal ($0.04M) and down ~22% year-over-year, while losses remain heavy (TTM net loss ~$20.4M). Profitability is deeply negative, with TTM gross margin below zero and operating losses broadly consistent with prior years, indicating limited operating leverage and a business still far from break-even. The main positive is that losses have not dramatically worsened versus recent history, but overall revenue traction and margin structure are the key concerns.8
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet is a relative strength. Leverage is low (TTM debt-to-equity ~0.07) and total debt is modest (TTM ~$0.8M), which reduces solvency risk. However, continued net losses drive a very negative return on equity (TTM roughly -0.92), and equity has trended lower versus earlier years—highlighting ongoing erosion of shareholder capital if profitability does not improve.66
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation remains weak, with TTM operating cash flow of about -$14.7M and free cash flow also around -$14.7M, reflecting persistent cash burn. A modest positive is that free cash flow has improved versus the prior annual period, but cash flow still tracks losses closely (free cash flow roughly in line with net loss), meaning the company likely remains dependent on external funding over time unless revenue ramps materially or costs reset.18
Very Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 65.00K | 135.00K | 550.00K | 382.00K | 400.00K |
| Gross Profit | -304.00K | 12.00K | 522.00K | 301.00K | 400.00K |
| EBITDA | -21.12M | -16.94M | -18.16M | -15.68M | -14.73M |
| Net Income | -20.17M | -18.43M | -19.79M | -17.36M | -15.71M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 21.09M | 29.12M | 24.03M | 26.73M | 36.06M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 19.21M | 26.77M | 19.53M | 21.18M | 28.70M |
| Total Debt | 1.99M | 1.98M | 3.64M | 4.88M | 6.54M |
| Total Liabilities | 2.71M | 4.05M | 5.86M | 6.42M | 7.68M |
| Stockholders Equity | 18.38M | 25.08M | 18.17M | 20.31M | 28.38M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | -13.25M | -14.59M | -12.54M | -12.55M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 0.00 | -13.24M | -14.56M | -12.50M | -12.44M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0.00 | 6.08M | -6.75M | -39.00K | -109.00K |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0.00 | 20.34M | 12.71M | 5.02M | 3.31M |
Atomera Technical Analysis
Positive
5.48
Price Trends
2.62
Positive
2.98
Positive
3.93
Positive
Market Momentum
0.49
Negative
77.88
Negative
83.56
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ATOM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.48 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.02, above the 50-day MA of 2.62, and above the 200-day MA of 3.93, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.49 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 77.88 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.56 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ATOM.
Atomera Risk Analysis
Atomera disclosed 25 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Atomera reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Atomera Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
57 Neutral | $249.36M | -444.40 | -0.91% | ― | -0.41% | -134.49% | |
56 Neutral | $165.96M | -5.55 | -44.72% | ― | -21.59% | -254.69% | |
54 Neutral | $181.53M | -8.37 | -116.86% | ― | -94.26% | 3.20% | |
52 Neutral | $1.28B | -44.65 | -12.00% | ― | -4.54% | -119.39% | |
46 Neutral | $48.95M | ― | -120.35% | ― | 2.80% | ― | |
42 Neutral | $79.63M | -8.78 | -24.81% | ― | -42.77% | 83.21% |
* Technology Sector Average
ATOM
Atomera
5.48
-0.92
-14.37%
ASYS
Amtech Systems
11.86
6.17
108.44%
AXTI
AXT
23.54
21.25
927.95%
SQNS
Sequans Communications S A
3.01
-21.69
-87.81%
MRAM
Everspin Technologies
11.11
4.96
80.65%
WKEY
WISeKey International Holding
7.07
1.10
18.43%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.