AXT (AXTI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $690.49M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 3.67M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.66
• Revenue Growth: -4.54%
• EPS Growth: -119.39%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,527
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Semiconductors
• EPS (TTM): -0.03
• Shares Outstanding: 46,623,170
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,206,549
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,666,143
• PEG Ratio: 0.23
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.49
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.94
• P/FCF Ratio: -5.24
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.43
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.25
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 27.18
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -21.74
• 1Y Price Target: $9.00
• Price Target Upside: -39.23% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.55
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $79.59M

• Rating: 61 Neutral
• Price Target: $12.50 ▼(-15.60% Downside)

AXT's stock score is primarily influenced by strong technical momentum, which is offset by weak financial performance and unattractive valuation. The earnings call provided some positive insights into revenue growth and margin improvements, but ongoing challenges in profitability and cash flow management remain significant concerns.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

The significant revenue growth indicates strong demand and market expansion, particularly in data centers, enhancing AXT's market position.

Indium Phosphide Demand

Rising demand for indium phosphide in data centers suggests a strong market for AXT's products, supporting long-term growth potential.

Gross Margin Improvement

Improved gross margins reflect better operational efficiency and product mix, which can enhance profitability over time.

Negative Factors

Net Loss Persisting

Ongoing net losses indicate financial challenges, which could hinder investment in growth and innovation if not addressed.

Export Permit Delays

Delays in export permits can disrupt supply chains and revenue realization, affecting customer satisfaction and market competitiveness.

Germanium Substrates Decline

Declining sales in germanium substrates suggest challenges in product diversification and profitability, impacting overall business health.

AXT Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

AXT Inc. (AXTI) is a leading manufacturer of compound semiconductor substrates and related materials, primarily serving the optoelectronics, wireless communication, and solar industries. The company specializes in the production of indium phosphide (InP), gallium arsenide (GaAs), and gallium nitride (GaN) substrates, which are essential for high-performance electronic and photonic devices. AXT's products are utilized in a variety of applications, including fiber optic communications, LEDs, and solar cells, positioning the company at the forefront of technology in sectors that demand cutting-edge materials.

How the Company Makes Money

AXT generates revenue through the sale of its compound semiconductor substrates and related products to a diverse range of customers, including manufacturers in the telecommunications, electronics, and renewable energy sectors. Key revenue streams include direct sales of substrates, as well as custom products tailored to specific customer needs. The company benefits from long-term relationships with major clients in the optoelectronic and wireless communication markets, which provide stability and predictability to its revenue. Additionally, AXT's ongoing investments in research and development allow it to innovate and expand its product offerings, creating new revenue opportunities. Strategic partnerships with technology firms and academic institutions also enhance its market reach and contribute to its financial performance.

AXT Financial Statement Overview

Summary

AXT is facing significant financial challenges, particularly in profitability and cash flow management. Despite positive revenue growth, the company struggles with negative margins and returns. The balance sheet is relatively stable, but improvements in operational efficiency and profitability are crucial for long-term sustainability.

Income Statement

AXT's income statement reveals a challenging period with declining profitability. The TTM data shows a negative net profit margin of -25.22% and a gross profit margin of 11.97%, indicating pressure on profitability. Revenue growth is positive at 5.01% TTM, but the EBIT and EBITDA margins are negative, reflecting operational inefficiencies. The company needs to address these challenges to improve its financial health.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows moderate leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.35 TTM, which is manageable. However, the return on equity is negative at -12.38% TTM, indicating that the company is not generating sufficient returns on shareholders' equity. The equity ratio is stable, suggesting a solid asset base, but the company needs to improve its profitability to enhance shareholder value.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis indicates a challenging situation with negative operating cash flow of -$15.8 million TTM. Free cash flow growth is positive at 35.55% TTM, but the operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting cash flow issues. The free cash flow to net income ratio is above 1, suggesting some efficiency in converting net income to free cash flow, but overall cash flow management needs improvement.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	90.39M	99.36M	75.80M	141.12M	137.39M	95.36M
Gross Profit	10.82M	23.84M	13.32M	52.12M	47.41M	30.27M
EBITDA	-13.53M	-338.00K	-8.78M	30.12M	25.10M	11.63M
Net Income	-22.80M	-11.62M	-17.88M	15.81M	14.57M	3.24M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	334.03M	339.31M	358.70M	370.07M	332.44M	298.86M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	23.11M	22.83M	39.89M	44.29M	42.18M	72.84M
Total Debt	63.70M	49.78M	55.73M	48.88M	16.54M	13.23M
Total Liabilities	93.58M	84.41M	89.56M	80.33M	52.21M	43.33M
Stockholders Equity	179.15M	192.77M	203.99M	221.61M	211.53M	192.62M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-18.93M	-17.88M	-7.07M	-37.23M	-32.95M	-13.99M
Operating Cash Flow	-15.80M	-12.11M	3.40M	-8.77M	-3.31M	5.87M
Investing Cash Flow	-4.24M	-4.45M	-2.60M	-25.22M	-38.81M	-16.42M
Financing Cash Flow	6.71M	-536.00K	8.61M	38.03M	5.72M	52.66M

AXT Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 14.81
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AXTI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 14.81 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 11.54, above the 50-day MA of 8.65, and above the 200-day MA of 3.79, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.81 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.49 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.64 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AXTI.

AXT Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NVEC	68 Neutral	$341.75M	24.73	22.20%	5.66%	-9.48%	-14.28%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%
AXTI	61 Neutral	$690.49M	―	-12.00%	―	-4.54%	-119.39%
MRAM	54 Neutral	$209.37M	-366.40	-0.91%	―	-0.41%	-134.49%
VLN	51 Neutral	$162.76M	-5.50	-23.56%	―	7.53%	-15.00%
XPER	49 Neutral	$285.43M	40.88	1.74%	―	-10.74%	―
ATOM	41 Neutral	$75.08M	-3.51	-116.86%	―	-94.26%	3.20%

AXT Corporate Events

AXT Inc. Earnings Call: Growth Amid Challenges

The recent earnings call for AXT Inc. painted a picture of mixed sentiments, with strong revenue growth and improved margins being overshadowed by persistent challenges. The company has seen an uptick in demand for indium phosphide, particularly in data centers, which has bolstered their financial performance. However, ongoing net losses, export permit delays, and declines in germanium substrates continue to pose significant hurdles. Despite these challenges, there are positive trends that indicate potential for future growth.

AXT, Inc. Reports Strong Q3 Revenue Growth

AXT, Inc. is a material science company specializing in the development and manufacturing of high-performance compound and single element semiconductor wafer substrates, primarily serving industries such as 5G infrastructure and data center connectivity.

AXT Subsidiary Secures Export Permits in China

In August 2025, Beijing Tongmei Xtal Technology Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of AXT, Inc., received export permits from the Ministry of Commerce of China to resume shipping indium phosphide substrates to additional customers, following export control restrictions announced in February 2025. This development is expected to generate several million dollars in revenue not included in the company’s third-quarter forecast, potentially impacting the company’s financial performance positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (AXTI) stock is a Hold with a $2.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on AXT stock, see the AXTI Stock Forecast page.