AXT Inc (AXTI)
NASDAQ:AXTI
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AXT
(NASDAQ:AXTI)
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Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$66.00
▼(-1.93% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/10/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (losses and poor/unstable cash generation), despite a supportive balance sheet. Strong technical momentum meaningfully lifts the score, while valuation remains constrained by negative earnings. The latest earnings call adds moderate support via improving demand/backlog and Q1 visibility, but execution risk from export permits and ongoing losses remains significant.
Positive Factors
Backlog / Demand Visibility
A >$60M InP backlog provides meaningful near- to medium-term revenue visibility tied to AI/data-center demand. This backlog underpins planned capacity increases, smooths short-term cycle effects, and supports higher utilization that can improve margins and de-risk execution over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Weak Cash Generation
Inconsistent and frequently negative operating/free cash flow limits self-funding ability and heightens reliance on external financing. Persisting negative cash conversion can force dilution or curtailed investment, increasing execution risk for capacity expansion and making sustained margin recovery harder to realize.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Backlog / Demand Visibility
A >$60M InP backlog provides meaningful near- to medium-term revenue visibility tied to AI/data-center demand. This backlog underpins planned capacity increases, smooths short-term cycle effects, and supports higher utilization that can improve margins and de-risk execution over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
AXT (AXTI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$3.69B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)12.45M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.16
Revenue Growth-4.54%
EPS Growth-119.39%
CountryUS
Employees1,527
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySemiconductors
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.05
Shares Outstanding55,578,598
10 Day Avg. Volume15,691,996
30 Day Avg. Volume12,445,051
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.43
Price to Book (P/B)2.63
Price to Sales (P/S)8.13
P/FCF Ratio-38.25
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.79
Enterprise Value/Revenue32.86
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit258.21
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-215.05
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$28.00Price Target Upside-58.40% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)<0.01
Revenue Forecast (FY)$125.30M
AXT Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
AXT, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and distributes compound and single element semiconductor substrates. It produces semiconductor substrates using its proprietary vertical gradient freeze technology. The company offers indium phosphide fo...
How the Company Makes Money
AXT makes money primarily by manufacturing and selling compound semiconductor substrates (single-crystal wafers) to customers that fabricate semiconductor and optoelectronic devices. Its core revenue stream is product sales of GaAs, InP, and Ge su...
AXT Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 19, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong demand fundamentals and forward-looking opportunity—backlog >$60M, broadening Tier 1 customer adoption, vertical supply-chain progress, a sizable cash raise, and a concrete capacity expansion plan—balanced against near-term operational and financial headwinds: Q4 revenue declined QoQ, the company remains unprofitable, inventory is elevated, and the ability to convert backlog to revenue is heavily dependent on uncertain China export permits. Management is constructive and has near-term revenue visibility (~$26M for Q1) but recognizes permit unpredictability as the principal risk to execution.Positive Updates
Backlog Reached New High
Indium phosphide backlog exceeded $60.0 million, up from $49.0 million in the prior quarter (increase of >$11.0M, ~>22%), providing strong near- to medium-term revenue visibility.
Negative Updates
Sequential and Year-over-Year Revenue Decline
Q4 2025 revenue was $23.0M, down from $28.0M in Q3 2025 (QoQ decline of $5.0M, -17.9%) and down from $25.1M in Q4 2024 (YoY decline of $2.1M, -8.4%).
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Backlog Reached New High
Indium phosphide backlog exceeded $60.0 million, up from $49.0 million in the prior quarter (increase of >$11.0M, ~>22%), providing strong near- to medium-term revenue visibility.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that for Q1 they have roughly $26.0M of revenue that is highly likely to be recognized today (either already permitted or not requiring export permits) with upside if additional export permits arrive, expect sequential revenue growth driven by indium phosphide (backlog >$60M and China data‑center revenues expected to grow >60% Q1 vs Q4), plan non‑GAAP OpEx of about $9.0M, see non‑GAAP net loss of $0.02–$0.04 per share (GAAP net loss $0.04–$0.06), and estimate ~53.2M shares in Q1; they reiterated focus on gross‑margin improvement, OpEx discipline and inventory reduction. For context, Q4 revenue was $23.0M (InP $8.0M, GaAs $7.0M, Ge $0.231M, consolidated raw‑materials JV $7.6M), Q4 non‑GAAP gross margin 21.5% (GAAP 20.9%), Q4 non‑GAAP net loss $2.6M or $0.06/sh (GAAP net loss $3.6M or $0.08/sh), cash + investments $128.4M (after a ~$93.9M offering), net inventory $81.7M, and capacity has been increased ~25% with a plan to double capacity from Q4 2025 by year‑end (estimated CapEx ≈ $30M for that phase and $100–150M possible for further greenfield expansion in 2027).AXT Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
27
Negative
Balance Sheet
64
Positive
Cash Flow
22
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 88.33M | 99.36M | 75.80M | 141.12M | 137.39M |
| Gross Profit | 11.24M | 23.84M | 13.32M | 52.12M | 47.41M |
| EBITDA | -20.29M | -338.00K | -8.78M | 30.12M | 25.10M |
| Net Income | -21.26M | -11.62M | -17.88M | 15.81M | 14.57M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 433.75M | 339.31M | 358.70M | 370.07M | 332.44M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 128.37M | 22.83M | 39.89M | 44.29M | 42.18M |
| Total Debt | 65.68M | 49.78M | 55.73M | 48.88M | 16.54M |
| Total Liabilities | 99.12M | 84.41M | 89.56M | 80.33M | 52.21M |
| Stockholders Equity | 273.29M | 192.77M | 203.99M | 221.61M | 211.53M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -18.78M | -17.88M | -7.07M | -37.23M | -32.95M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -12.78M | -12.11M | 3.40M | -8.77M | -3.31M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -6.83M | -4.45M | -2.60M | -25.22M | -38.81M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 107.09M | -536.00K | 8.61M | 38.03M | 5.72M |
AXT Technical Analysis
Positive
67.30
Price Trends
41.43
Positive
28.53
Positive
16.32
Positive
Market Momentum
4.86
Negative
61.28
Neutral
83.12
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AXTI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 67.3 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 55.86, above the 50-day MA of 41.43, and above the 200-day MA of 16.32, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 4.86 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.28 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.12 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AXTI.
AXT Risk Analysis
AXT disclosed 62 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. AXT reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
AXT Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $370.19M | 21.20 | 23.47% | 6.28% | -9.48% | -14.28% | |
66 Neutral | $281.82M | -11.32 | 1.74% | ― | -10.74% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
61 Neutral | $256.87M | -357.39 | -0.80% | ― | -0.41% | -134.49% | |
58 Neutral | $3.69B | -33.79 | -10.41% | ― | -4.54% | -119.39% | |
48 Neutral | $211.04M | -3.38 | -116.86% | ― | -94.26% | 3.20% | |
45 Neutral | $142.15M | -4.64 | -27.53% | ― | 7.53% | -15.00% |
* Technology Sector Average
AXTI
AXT
67.30
66.13
5652.14%
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AXT Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
AXT Board Designates Leonard LeBlanc Independent Audit Chair
Positive
Jan 29, 2026
On January 26, 2026, AXT’s board of directors determined that director Leonard J. LeBlanc, initially appointed on July 29, 2025 as a non-independent member under a limited Nasdaq exception, now qualifies as an independent director under Nasd...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.