AXT Inc (AXTI)
NASDAQ:AXTI
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AXT
(NASDAQ:AXTI)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$149.00
▲(80.47% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/15/26
The score is driven by strong technical momentum and a constructive earnings outlook (guided return to profitability backed by a large indium phosphide backlog). Offsetting this, current fundamentals are still weak with ongoing losses and cash burn, and valuation is not supported by earnings (negative P/E), keeping the overall score in the middle range.
Positive Factors
Indium Phosphide Backlog & Revenue Visibility
A >$100M indium phosphide backlog provides multi-quarter revenue visibility into a high-margin product line. That backlog supports planned capacity ramps, underpins near-term revenue recognition, and materially de-risks demand assumptions tied to achieving sustained profitability.
Negative Factors
Export Permit & Geopolitical Risk
Export license timing is a structural gating factor for recognizing revenue and scaling exports. Permit unpredictability can stall shipments, elongate working capital cycles, and make quarterly and multi-quarter profitability outcomes contingent on external regulatory decisions outside management control.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Indium Phosphide Backlog & Revenue Visibility
A >$100M indium phosphide backlog provides multi-quarter revenue visibility into a high-margin product line. That backlog supports planned capacity ramps, underpins near-term revenue recognition, and materially de-risks demand assumptions tied to achieving sustained profitability.
Read all positive factors
AXT (AXTI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$9.21B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)11.56M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.38
Revenue Growth-0.14%
EPS Growth25.60%
CountryUS
Employees1,527
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySemiconductors
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.32
Shares Outstanding65,423,190
10 Day Avg. Volume9,181,927
30 Day Avg. Volume11,557,714
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.41
Price to Book (P/B)2.63
Price to Sales (P/S)8.13
P/FCF Ratio-38.25
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.71
Enterprise Value/Revenue68.40
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit320.55
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-1.02K
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$86.00Price Target Upside4.17% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)0.03
Revenue Forecast (FY)$125.48M
AXT Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
AXT, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and distributes compound and single element semiconductor substrates. It produces semiconductor substrates using its proprietary vertical gradient freeze technology. The company offers indium phosphide fo...
How the Company Makes Money
AXT makes money primarily by manufacturing and selling compound semiconductor substrates (single-crystal wafers) to customers that fabricate semiconductor and optoelectronic devices. Its core revenue stream is product sales of GaAs, InP, and Ge su...
AXT Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational momentum: solid revenue growth, a major capital raise, a >$100M indium phosphide backlog, material margin improvement, and a clear multi-stage capacity expansion plan that positions the company to benefit from AI and optical market growth. However, meaningful execution risks remain—most notably the unpredictability of China export permits (including pending U.S. permits), high near-term CapEx and working capital needs, regional revenue concentration, and the technical/qualification challenges of migrating to larger wafer sizes. On balance, the positive financial and commercial developments and a path to near-term profitability outweigh the listed risks.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Q1 2026 revenue was $26.9 million (versus $23.0M in the most recent comparative period and $19.4M in the year-ago period), implying roughly +17% sequential and +39% year-over-year increases.
Negative Updates
Export Permits and Geopolitical Uncertainty
Timing and receipt of China export permits remain unpredictable and are the single largest gating factor for revenue recognition and growth (U.S. export permits remain pending). Management states permit timing is outside their control and could materially impact quarterly results.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth
Q1 2026 revenue was $26.9 million (versus $23.0M in the most recent comparative period and $19.4M in the year-ago period), implying roughly +17% sequential and +39% year-over-year increases.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided to sequential Q2 revenue growth driven by indium phosphide—Q2 is expected to be AXT’s largest indium phosphide quarter ever—backed by a >$100M indium phosphide backlog and roughly $34M of revenue that either already has permits or does not require them; export permits remain the key uncertainty and could drive significant upside. They expect to achieve profitability in Q2, with non‑GAAP OpEx of about $9.3M (GAAP OpEx ≈ $10M), non‑GAAP net income of $0.06–$0.08 per share, GAAP net income of $0.05–$0.07 per share, and an estimated share count of ~63.5M.AXT Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
29
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 95.89M | 88.33M | 99.36M | 75.80M | 141.12M | 137.39M |
| Gross Profit | 20.46M | 11.24M | 23.84M | 13.32M | 52.12M | 47.41M |
| EBITDA | -6.40M | -12.87M | -338.00K | -8.78M | 30.12M | 25.10M |
| Net Income | -14.08M | -21.26M | -11.62M | -17.88M | 15.81M | 14.57M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 444.60M | 433.75M | 339.31M | 358.70M | 370.07M | 332.44M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 107.14M | 128.37M | 22.83M | 39.89M | 44.29M | 42.18M |
| Total Debt | 70.18M | 65.68M | 49.78M | 55.73M | 48.88M | 16.54M |
| Total Liabilities | 107.63M | 99.12M | 84.41M | 89.56M | 80.33M | 52.21M |
| Stockholders Equity | 274.87M | 273.29M | 192.77M | 203.99M | 221.61M | 211.53M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -27.98M | -18.78M | -17.88M | -7.07M | -37.23M | -32.95M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -21.12M | -12.78M | -12.11M | 3.40M | -8.77M | -3.31M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -73.31M | -6.83M | -4.45M | -2.60M | -25.22M | -38.81M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 108.21M | 107.09M | -536.00K | 8.61M | 38.03M | 5.72M |
AXT Technical Analysis
Positive
82.56
Price Trends
81.19
Positive
54.15
Positive
30.69
Positive
Market Momentum
13.88
Negative
63.35
Neutral
77.55
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AXTI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 82.56 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 109.27, above the 50-day MA of 81.19, and above the 200-day MA of 30.69, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 13.88 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.35 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 77.55 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AXTI.
AXT Risk Analysis
AXT disclosed 63 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. AXT reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
AXT Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
83 Outperform | $441.39M | 20.85 | 25.61% | 6.28% | 1.76% | 0.85% | |
69 Neutral | $789.71M | -171.77 | 0.42% | ― | 15.94% | ― | |
67 Neutral | $374.10M | -19.59 | -10.29% | ― | -8.30% | -139.29% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
61 Neutral | $9.21B | -468.85 | -6.21% | ― | -0.14% | 25.60% | |
58 Neutral | $357.74M | -5.53 | -84.79% | ― | -40.50% | 1.62% | |
48 Neutral | $339.04M | ― | -29.33% | ― | 11.92% | 7.07% |
* Technology Sector Average
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AXT Corporate Events
Shareholder Meetings
AXT Adjourns 2026 Annual Meeting Due to Quorum Shortfall
Negative
May 15, 2026
AXT, Inc., a Fremont, Calif.-based producer of compound semiconductor wafer substrates used in high-performance applications such as 5G, data center connectivity, optical networks and satellite solar cells, relies on manufacturing facilities in Ch...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
AXT Announces Major Public Offering to Fund Expansion
Positive
Apr 21, 2026
On April 21, 2026, AXT, Inc. entered into an underwriting agreement with Northland Securities for a public offering of 8,560,311 shares of common stock at $64.25 per share, with a 30-day option for underwriters to buy up to 1,284,046 additional sh...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.