AXT (AXTI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $127.77M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 487.89K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.29
• Revenue Growth: -2.63%
• EPS Growth: -78.66%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,527
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 83
• Industry: Semiconductors
• EPS (TTM): -0.15
• Shares Outstanding: 46,124,935
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 831,054
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 487,893
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.40
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.86
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 10.84
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -20.91
• 1Y Price Target: $3.92
• Price Target Upside: 36.59% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6

• Rating: 52 Neutral
• Price Target: $3.00 ▲(4.53% Upside)

AXT's overall stock score is primarily impacted by weak financial performance, with declining revenues and profitability. Despite positive technical indicators and potential revenue growth from export permits, valuation concerns and ongoing geopolitical challenges weigh heavily on the stock's outlook.

Positive Factors

Future Performance

A continued recovery in the global demand environment is expected to benefit the company in the future.

Management Strategy

Management is prioritizing a return to profitability and working to improve gross margins.

Revenue Growth

Revenue exceeded expectations due to strong demand from data centers and growth in the raw materials business.

Negative Factors

Export Control Issues

Export control issues are delaying recovery, affecting both revenue and profit projections.

Licensing and Tariff Challenges

Uncertainty in the permitting process and potential tariff impacts are seen as near-term challenges.

Market Demand

There is sluggish demand in China impacting the company's performance.

AXT Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

AXT, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and distributes compound and single element semiconductor substrates. It produces semiconductor substrates using its proprietary vertical gradient freeze technology. The company offers indium phosphide for use in data center connectivity using light/lasers, 5G communications, fiber optic lasers and detectors, passive optical networks, silicon photonics, photonic integrated circuits, terrestrial solar cells, RF amplifier and switching, infrared light-emitting diode (LEDS) motion control, lidar for robotics and autonomous vehicles, and infrared thermal imaging. It also provides semi-insulating gallium arsenide (GaAs) substrates for use in Wi-Fi and IoT devices, transistors, direct broadcast television, power amplifiers, satellite communications, and solar cells; and semi-conducting GaAs substrates that are used in LED, screen displays, printer head lasers and LEDs, 3-D sensing using VCSELs, data center communication using VCSELs, sensors for industrial robotics/near-infrared sensors, optical couplers, solar cells, night vision goggles, lidar for robotics and autonomous vehicles, and other lasers, as well as laser machining, cutting, and drilling. In addition, the company offers germanium substrates for use in multi-junction solar cells for satellites, optical sensors and detectors, terrestrial concentrated photo voltaic cells, infrared detectors, and carrier wafer for LED. Further, it provides 6N+ and 7N+ purified gallium, boron trioxide, gallium-magnesium alloy, pyrolytic boron nitride (pBN) crucibles, and pBN insulating parts. AXT, Inc. sells its products through direct salesforce in the United States, China, and Europe, as well as through independent sales representatives and distributors in Japan, Taiwan, Korea, and internationally. The company was formerly known as American Xtal Technology, Inc. and changed its name to AXT, Inc. in July 2000. AXT, Inc. was incorporated in 1986 and is headquartered in Fremont, California.

How the Company Makes Money

AXT generates revenue through the sale of its semiconductor substrates, with key revenue streams coming from its high-purity InP and GaAs substrates. The company markets its products to a diverse range of customers, including manufacturers of optoelectronic devices and technology firms involved in telecommunications and data communications. AXT's revenue model is primarily driven by product sales, with pricing influenced by market demand and technological advancements. Additionally, strategic partnerships with key industry players and ongoing investment in research and development contribute to enhancing its product offerings and expanding its market reach, ultimately supporting its earnings.

AXT Financial Statement Overview

Summary

AXT is struggling with declining revenue and profitability, evident from negative net profit and EBIT margins. Cash flow challenges persist with negative free cash flow and operational inefficiencies, although the balance sheet remains stable with moderate leverage.

Income Statement

AXT has faced a challenging period with declining revenue over the last year, dropping from $99.36M to $96.03M on a TTM basis. The company exhibits negative net profit and EBIT margins, indicating operational inefficiencies. Gross profit margin has also decreased from 23.99% to 17.18%, showing reduced profitability. These factors suggest weak income statement performance.

Balance Sheet

AXT maintains a relatively healthy balance sheet with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.30, reflecting moderate leverage. The equity ratio stands at 55.50%, indicating a solid equity base. However, the return on equity has turned negative, highlighting profitability concerns. Overall, the balance sheet shows financial stability but is impacted by profitability issues.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement reveals negative free cash flow, although the free cash flow has slightly improved from the previous year. Operating cash flow remains negative, signaling ongoing cash management challenges. The free cash flow to net income ratio is concerning, as both figures are negative, indicating poor cash conversion efficiency.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	96.03M	99.36M	75.80M	141.12M	137.39M	95.36M
Gross Profit	16.50M	23.84M	13.32M	52.12M	47.41M	30.27M
EBITDA	-8.55M	-338.00K	-8.78M	30.12M	25.10M	11.63M
Net Income	-18.34M	-11.62M	-17.88M	15.81M	14.57M	3.24M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	333.48M	339.31M	358.70M	370.07M	332.44M	298.86M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	31.58M	22.83M	39.89M	44.29M	42.18M	72.84M
Total Debt	54.91M	49.78M	55.73M	48.88M	16.54M	13.23M
Total Liabilities	87.31M	84.41M	89.56M	80.33M	52.21M	43.33M
Stockholders Equity	185.04M	192.77M	203.99M	221.61M	211.53M	192.62M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-8.54M	-17.88M	-7.07M	-37.23M	-32.95M	-13.99M
Operating Cash Flow	-6.65M	-12.11M	3.40M	-8.77M	-3.31M	5.87M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.32M	-4.45M	-2.60M	-25.22M	-38.81M	-16.42M
Financing Cash Flow	4.35M	-536.00K	8.61M	38.03M	5.72M	52.66M

AXT Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 2.87
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AXTI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.87 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.29, above the 50-day MA of 2.25, and above the 200-day MA of 1.92, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.16 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.34 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.75 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AXTI.

AXT Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	61 Neutral	$35.62B	7.50	-10.94%	1.87%	8.86%	-10.27%
ASYS	56 Neutral	$85.45M	40.38	-47.86%	―	-20.20%	-58.57%
AXTI	52 Neutral	$127.77M	―	-12.56%	―	-2.63%	-78.66%
GSIT	51 Neutral	$93.09M	―	-36.97%	―	6.14%	1.71%
PXLW	45 Neutral	$42.31M	―	-2911.20%	―	-44.05%	-2.33%
GCTS	43 Neutral	$71.50M	―	17.45%	―	28.31%	-239.16%
NA	42 Neutral	$140.96M	―	-21.44%	―	―	―

AXT Corporate Events

AXT Subsidiary Secures Export Permits in China

In August 2025, Beijing Tongmei Xtal Technology Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of AXT, Inc., received export permits from the Ministry of Commerce of China to resume shipping indium phosphide substrates to additional customers, following export control restrictions announced in February 2025. This development is expected to generate several million dollars in revenue not included in the company’s third-quarter forecast, potentially impacting the company’s financial performance positively.

AXT Appoints Leonard J. Leblanc to Board

AXT, Inc. recently appointed Leonard J. Leblanc to its Board of Directors, filling a vacancy left by the passing of Ms. Christine Russell. Mr. Leblanc, who has a rich history with the company and extensive experience in finance and corporate governance, will serve as a Class III director until July 2027. His familiarity with AXT’s operations and strategic needs is seen as crucial during this critical period. Additionally, Jesse Chen has been appointed as the Chair of the Audit Committee, bringing his expertise as an ‘audit committee financial expert’ to the role.

AXT Granted Cure Period for Nasdaq Compliance

On July 14, 2025, AXT, Inc. informed Nasdaq that they were not compliant with Nasdaq Listing Rule 5605(c)(2)(A) due to the passing of Ms. Christine Russell, which left their Audit Committee with only two independent directors instead of the required three. Nasdaq has granted AXT a cure period to regain compliance by either their next annual meeting or July 11, 2026, whichever comes first. AXT plans to appoint a new independent director to meet the compliance requirements before the deadline.

AXT Faces Nasdaq Compliance Challenge After Board Loss

AXT, Inc. announced the passing of Ms. Christine Russell, a member of its Board of Directors, on July 11, 2025. Ms. Russell, who joined the board in December 2019, was a key figure in the company’s governance, serving as Chair of the Audit Committee and participating in other committees. Her passing has left the company temporarily non-compliant with Nasdaq’s requirement for a minimum of three independent directors on the Audit Committee. AXT has until July 11, 2026, to regain compliance and is actively seeking a new independent director to fill the vacancy.

AXT Announces Lower Q2 2025 Revenue Expectations

On July 9, 2025, AXT, Inc. announced a preliminary revenue range for the second quarter of 2025, expecting revenues between $17.5 and $18 million, which is below the previously guided $20 to $22 million. This shortfall is attributed to slower issuance of export control permits for gallium arsenide products and weaker demand in China. Despite these challenges, AXT reported increased AI-related demand for indium phosphide in China and received its first export control permits for indium phosphide late in the quarter. The company remains focused on improving gross margins, expecting them to be in the high single digits for Q2 2025.

AXT Subsidiary Secures Export Permits from China

On June 11, 2025, Beijing Tongmei Xtal Technology, a subsidiary of AXT, Inc., received its initial export permits from the Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China to resume shipping indium phosphide substrates to certain customers. This development follows the export controls imposed on February 4, 2025, by Chinese authorities on materials including indium, impacting the company’s operations and market positioning.