ASML Holding (ASML) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $239.76B
• Dividend Yield: 0.94%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.65M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 29.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.53
• Revenue Growth: 2.53%
• EPS Growth: -3.33%
• Country: US
• Employees: 42,786
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 40
• Industry: Semiconductors
• EPS (TTM): 20.80
• Shares Outstanding: 393,830,700
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,720,397
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,652,962
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 9.13
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $932.99
• Price Target Upside: 51.50% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

ASML's overall stock score reflects its strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment. The company's robust revenue growth and profitability, coupled with impressive cash flow, support continued operational success. However, technical analysis indicates potential short-term challenges due to bearish market indicators, and a high P/E ratio suggests premium valuation concerns. Geopolitical risks and specific revenue declines in Logic and EUV systems are notable risks but are outweighed by the company's strategic advancements and positive outlook for AI-driven growth.

Positive Factors

Bookings

ASML's bookings provide increased confidence in the midpoint of ASML's 2025 guide, which may drive shares by potential upside to the high-end and increasing 2026 visibility.

China Market

ASML expects a better than prior revenue contribution from China in 2025, indicating a positive outlook for the region.

Performance

ASML's revenue guide for 1Q25 is higher than prior estimates, indicating strong expected performance in the near term.

Negative Factors

Earnings Per Share

Based on the company's guide update, the implied 2025 EPS is estimated to be in the approximately €25/share range, below the recently lowered estimate of €29.94.

Gross Margin

ASML expects GM% at 49%-50%; previously estimated at 50.2% with consensus at 51.0%.

Revenue Forecast

ASML expects 2025 revenue of €30B-€35B, which is below the recently lowered estimate of €36.1B and the Street at €36.0B.

ASML Holding Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

ASML Holding (ASML) is a leading global supplier of photolithography equipment used in the semiconductor industry. Based in the Netherlands, ASML designs, develops, and manufactures advanced machinery that enables the production of integrated circuits, or chips. The company's core products include extreme ultraviolet (EUV) and deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography systems, which are critical for producing smaller, faster, and more efficient chips used in a variety of electronic devices and technologies.

How the Company Makes Money

ASML makes money primarily through the sale of its advanced lithography systems to semiconductor manufacturers around the world. The company generates revenue through the sale of EUV and DUV lithography systems, which are essential for chipmakers to produce cutting-edge semiconductors. Apart from the initial sale of these complex machines, ASML also earns revenue from service and maintenance contracts, software solutions, and upgrades to existing systems. Additionally, ASML benefits from strategic partnerships and collaborations with major players in the semiconductor industry, often engaging in research and development initiatives that further enhance its technological offerings and market position.

ASML Holding Financial Statement Overview

Summary

ASML demonstrates strong financial health with robust revenue growth from $21.17 billion in 2022 to $28.26 billion in 2024. High profitability is evidenced by a gross profit margin of 51.3% and net profit margin of 26.8%, alongside impressive cash flow generation with free cash flow reaching $9.1 billion in 2024. While debt levels have slightly increased, the overall financial position remains highly favorable.

Income Statement

ASML has shown strong revenue growth, with a notable increase from $21.17 billion in 2022 to $28.26 billion in 2024. The company maintains high profitability, evidenced by a gross profit margin of 51.3% and a net profit margin of 26.8% in 2024. Consistent EBIT and EBITDA margins around the 30% mark further highlight operational efficiency and profitability in the TTM.

Balance Sheet

ASML's balance sheet is robust, with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.20, indicating prudent financial leverage. The equity ratio of 38.0% suggests a strong capital structure, while a return on equity of 41.0% reflects effective management of shareholder funds. However, a slight increase in total debt over the years warrants monitoring.

Cash Flow

ASML's cash flow generation is impressive, with free cash flow growing significantly over time, reaching $9.1 billion in 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.47 highlights the company's ability to efficiently convert profits into cash. Additionally, the free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.20 underscores strong cash profitability.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
28.26B	27.56B	21.17B	18.61B	13.98B
	Gross Profit
14.49B	14.14B	10.51B	9.81B	6.80B
	EBIT
9.02B	9.04B	7.32B	6.75B	4.05B
	EBITDA
9.94B	9.98B	7.16B	6.99B	4.53B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
7.57B	7.84B	5.62B	5.88B	3.55B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
12.74B	7.01B	7.38B	7.59B	7.35B
	Total Assets
48.59B	39.96B	38.83B	30.23B	27.27B
	Total Debt
3.68B	4.63B	4.26B	4.08B	4.66B
	Net Debt
-9.06B	-2.37B	-3.01B	-2.88B	-1.39B
	Total Liabilities
30.11B	26.51B	27.54B	20.09B	13.40B
	Stockholders Equity
18.48B	13.45B	11.29B	10.14B	13.87B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
9.08B	3.25B	7.22B	9.91B	3.63B
	Operating Cash Flow
11.17B	5.44B	9.43B	10.85B	4.63B
	Investing Cash Flow
-2.61B	-2.69B	-1.92B	-72.00M	-1.35B
	Financing Cash Flow
-2.83B	-3.00B	-7.19B	-9.89B	-753.00M

ASML Holding Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 615.84
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASML, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 615.84 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 690.90, below the 50-day MA of 713.74, and below the 200-day MA of 783.76, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -12.17 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.29 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.43 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ASML.

ASML Holding Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
LRCX	78 Outperform	$75.85B	17.96	50.42%	1.51%	13.21%	27.25%
KLAC	77 Outperform	$76.61B	24.25	96.81%	1.09%	12.19%	20.80%
ASML	76 Outperform	$239.76B	29.08	48.13%	0.94%	2.53%	-3.33%
AMAT	76 Outperform	$103.14B	16.61	35.19%	1.26%	4.45%	-10.01%
TSM	74 Outperform	$734.69B	20.84	29.96%	1.32%	29.98%	35.76%
Sector *	57 Neutral	$18.52B	9.81	-13.96%	2.71%	5.07%	-23.65%
INTC	52 Neutral	$86.56B	―	-18.31%	2.52%	-2.08%	-1212.72%