ASML Holding (ASML) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $271.75B
• Dividend Yield: 0.81%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.88M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 34.0
• Beta (1Y): 1.72
• Revenue Growth: 2.53%
• EPS Growth: -3.33%
• Country: US
• Employees: 42,416
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 48
• Industry: Semiconductors and Equipment
• EPS (TTM): 20.80
• Shares Outstanding: 393,830,700
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,712,176
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,881,351
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 9.64
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $927.38
• Price Target Upside: 30.95% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6

ASML's high stock score is driven by its strong financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment. The company demonstrates robust growth in revenue and profitability, supported by a strong balance sheet and excellent cash flow. Despite technical indicators suggesting short-term caution and a relatively high valuation, the long-term growth prospects, particularly in AI demand, remain strong.

Positive Factors

Bookings and demand

ASML reported 4Q24 system bookings of approximately €7.1B, significantly higher than the prior quarter, suggesting strong demand.

Revenue outlook

ASML's revenue guide for 1Q25 is higher than prior estimates, indicating strong expected performance in the near term.

Negative Factors

Earnings per share

Based on the company's guide update, the implied 2025 EPS is estimated to be in the approximately €25/share range, below the recently lowered estimate of €29.94.

Gross margin expectations

ASML expects GM% at 49%-50%; previously estimated at 50.2% with consensus at 51.0%.

Revenue forecast

ASML expects 2025 revenue of €30B-€35B, which is below the recently lowered estimate of €36.1B and the Street at €36.0B.

ASML Holding Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

ASML Holding NV engages in the development, production, marketing, sale and servicing of advanced semiconductor equipment, consisting of lithography related systems. It mainly caters the makers of memory chips and logic chips. The company was founded on April 1, 1984 and is headquartered in Veldhoven, Netherlands.

How the Company Makes Money

ASML makes money primarily through the sale of its advanced lithography systems to semiconductor manufacturers around the world. The company generates revenue through the sale of EUV and DUV lithography systems, which are essential for chipmakers to produce cutting-edge semiconductors. Apart from the initial sale of these complex machines, ASML also earns revenue from service and maintenance contracts, software solutions, and upgrades to existing systems. Additionally, ASML benefits from strategic partnerships and collaborations with major players in the semiconductor industry, often engaging in research and development initiatives that further enhance its technological offerings and market position.

ASML Holding Financial Statement Overview

Summary

ASML demonstrates strong financial health with substantial revenue growth, robust profitability margins, a solid balance sheet with low leverage, and excellent cash flow generation. Despite a slight increase in debt levels, overall financial performance remains highly favorable.

Income Statement

ASML has shown strong revenue growth, with a notable increase from $21.17 billion in 2022 to $28.26 billion in 2024. The company maintains high profitability, evidenced by a gross profit margin of 51.3% and a net profit margin of 26.8% in 2024. Consistent EBIT and EBITDA margins around the 30% mark further highlight operational efficiency and profitability in the TTM.

Balance Sheet

ASML's balance sheet is robust, with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.20, indicating prudent financial leverage. The equity ratio of 38.0% suggests a strong capital structure, while a return on equity of 41.0% reflects effective management of shareholder funds. However, a slight increase in total debt over the years warrants monitoring.

Cash Flow

ASML's cash flow generation is impressive, with free cash flow growing significantly over time, reaching $9.1 billion in 2024. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.47 highlights the company's ability to efficiently convert profits into cash. Additionally, the free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.20 underscores strong cash profitability.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
28.26B	27.56B	21.17B	18.61B	13.98B
	Gross Profit
14.49B	14.14B	10.51B	9.81B	6.80B
	EBIT
9.02B	9.04B	7.32B	6.75B	4.05B
	EBITDA
9.94B	9.98B	7.00B	6.99B	4.53B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
7.57B	7.84B	5.62B	5.88B	3.55B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
12.74B	7.01B	7.38B	7.59B	7.35B
	Total Assets
48.59B	39.96B	38.83B	30.23B	27.27B
	Total Debt
3.68B	4.63B	4.26B	4.08B	4.66B
	Net Debt
-9.06B	-2.37B	-3.01B	-2.88B	-1.39B
	Total Liabilities
30.11B	26.51B	27.54B	20.09B	13.40B
	Stockholders Equity
18.48B	13.45B	11.29B	10.14B	13.87B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
9.10B	3.25B	7.20B	9.95B	3.67B
	Operating Cash Flow
11.17B	5.44B	8.49B	10.85B	4.63B
	Investing Cash Flow
-2.61B	-2.69B	-1.92B	-72.00M	-1.35B
	Financing Cash Flow
-2.83B	-3.00B	-7.19B	-9.89B	-753.00M

ASML Holding Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 708.22
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASML, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 708.22 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 735.66, below the 50-day MA of 729.81, and below the 200-day MA of 818.26, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -5.86 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.43 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.77 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ASML.

ASML Holding Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
LRCX	80 Outperform	$98.12B	23.23	48.75%	1.13%	13.21%	27.25%
ASML	77 Outperform	$271.75B	34.01	40.98%	0.81%	2.53%	-3.33%
AMAT	76 Outperform	$124.20B	20.00	34.06%	1.05%	4.45%	-10.01%
ASX	72 Outperform	$22.54B	21.63	10.03%	2.27%	-0.62%	-1.08%
TER	70 Outperform	$17.34B	32.29	14.62%	0.45%	5.52%	16.59%
KLAC	69 Neutral	$92.89B	29.40	89.51%	0.91%	12.19%	20.80%
Sector *	59 Neutral	$22.39B	11.53	-18.05%	2.31%	5.00%	-25.89%