Aryzta ADR (ARZTY)
OTHER OTC:ARZTY
Top Page
Aryzta ADR
(OTC:ARZTY)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$8.00
▲(1.27% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/24/26
The score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals—sustained profitability and positive free cash flow—tempered by revenue decline, some margin pressure, and still-elevated leverage. Valuation is supportive with a moderate P/E (~12), while technicals are mixed (below the 200DMA and slightly below the 20DMA, with mostly neutral momentum). Earnings call commentary adds confidence via reaffirmed targets and balance-sheet actions, but near-term execution risks (input costs, retail softness, restructuring, and H2-weighted cash flow) cap the score.
Positive Factors
Consistent free cash flow generation
Sustained free cash flow (~€120m in FY2025) provides durable funding for debt reduction, capex and targeted reinvestment. Reliable cash conversion supports deleveraging plans and a capital-return policy while giving management flexibility to fund transformation and margins improvements over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Net leverage above target range
Leverage at ~2.6x limits financial flexibility and increases refinancing and interest-rate exposure. Until deleveraging reaches the 1.5–2x target and core equity improves, the company faces constraints on dividend/buyback policy, higher financing costs and reduced resilience to input-cost or demand shocks over the coming months.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Consistent free cash flow generation
Sustained free cash flow (~€120m in FY2025) provides durable funding for debt reduction, capex and targeted reinvestment. Reliable cash conversion supports deleveraging plans and a capital-return policy while giving management flexibility to fund transformation and margins improvements over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Aryzta ADR (ARZTY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.95B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)509.00
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.0
Beta (1Y)0.85
Revenue Growth4.35%
EPS Growth-93.15%
CountryUS
Employees7,654
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryPackaged Foods
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.28
Shares Outstanding248,276,440
10 Day Avg. Volume67
30 Day Avg. Volume509
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)2.34
Price to Sales (P/S)0.61
P/FCF Ratio7.84
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.19
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.05
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.04
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.31
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Aryzta ADR Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
ARYZTA AG provides frozen B2B baking solutions in Europe, Asia, Australia, and New Zealand. It offers pastries, cookies, donuts, muffins, buns, bread rolls and artisan loaves, sweet baked and morning goods, and savory and other products. The compa...
How the Company Makes Money
ARYZTA makes money primarily by manufacturing and selling bakery products in business-to-business channels. Its main revenue stream is the sale of bread and specialty bakery items (e.g., buns, rolls, artisan breads, pastries) to (1) retail custome...
Aryzta ADR Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 02, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 17, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a predominantly constructive operational and financial picture: revenue growth, EBITDA above guidance, strong free cash flow and ROIC above WACC are clear positives. Headwinds include input-cost-driven margin pressure, flat retail performance, remaining leverage above target and anticipated restructuring costs in 2026. Management has credible mitigation plans (savings program, digital investments, hybrid repayment) and a path to normalized capital structure, but some near-term execution and timing risks remain.Positive Updates
Revenue and Organic Growth
Revenue of EUR 2.223 billion in FY2025 with organic growth of 1.5%, supported by volume, mix (0.5%) and pricing (1%).
Negative Updates
Margin Pressure from Input Costs
Input cost inflation (labor, butter, protein, chocolate) reduced gross margin by ~290 basis points; FX and other elements further negative by ~50 basis points, leaving EBITDA margin ~80 basis points below prior year.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue and Organic Growth
Revenue of EUR 2.223 billion in FY2025 with organic growth of 1.5%, supported by volume, mix (0.5%) and pricing (1%).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
ARYZTA confirmed it remains on track to deliver its mid‑term plan, guiding to low‑ to mid‑single‑digit organic growth with continued EBITDA/EBIT improvement toward targets (mid‑term EBITDA margin ≥15% and EBIT margin ≥9%), CapEx of 3.5–4.5% of revenue, and total net debt leverage of 1.5–2.0x while publishing a 2026 capital‑return policy. Management expects sustained strong free cash‑flow generation (FY‑2025 FCF €120m; cash conversion ~40% of EBITDA) with 2026 FCF to be H2‑weighted but broadly similar, and balance‑sheet improvement including repurchase of the remaining CHF144.3m hybrid end‑April, reducing leverage from 2.6x (2025) and increasing core equity from 21.1% toward ~30% by year‑end. 2026 financing costs are expected at €40–43m (FY‑2025 actual €41.6m, with ~€23m benefit from the hybrid buyback and ~37% interest exposure hedged); operational savings are targeted at €20–30m net (€40–60m gross from ops/procurement/structure, with ~€10m of gross structural annual savings identified), some restructuring costs to be incurred in 2026, and management reiterated ROIC of 12.1% in 2025 (vs WACC ~8%) and FY‑2025 revenue €2.223bn, organic growth 1.5%, EBITDA €306.9m (13.8% margin) and EPS €4.25 (+5.7%).Aryzta ADR Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
73
Positive
Balance Sheet
57
Neutral
Cash Flow
62
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Jul 2023 | Jul 2022 | Jul 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 2.14B | 2.19B | 2.12B | 1.76B | 1.53B |
| Gross Profit | 675.16M | 469.20M | 392.30M | 318.50M | 252.50M |
| EBITDA | 293.83M | 341.00M | 280.40M | 170.30M | 182.90M |
| Net Income | 107.87M | 129.60M | 112.00M | 900.00K | -235.80M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.89B | 1.91B | 1.97B | 2.08B | 2.06B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 68.57M | 77.10M | 130.80M | 245.80M | 170.90M |
| Total Debt | 714.20M | 816.40M | 524.90M | 535.80M | 373.30M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.33B | 1.46B | 1.17B | 1.15B | 961.60M |
| Stockholders Equity | 552.86M | 452.10M | 793.30M | 932.40M | 1.10B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 165.31M | 204.60M | 197.30M | 116.80M | 300.00K |
| Operating Cash Flow | 247.53M | 298.90M | 251.40M | 200.10M | 84.30M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -92.50M | -93.40M | -60.10M | 8.90M | 633.20M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -158.97M | -230.60M | -299.10M | -143.40M | -976.00M |
Aryzta ADR Technical Analysis
Positive
7.90
Price Trends
7.40
Positive
6.86
Positive
7.76
Positive
Market Momentum
0.14
Negative
60.20
Neutral
74.30
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ARZTY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7.9 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.69, above the 50-day MA of 7.40, and above the 200-day MA of 7.76, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.14 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 60.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.30 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ARZTY.
Aryzta ADR Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | $1.95B | 12.02 | 21.15% | ― | 4.35% | -93.15% | |
66 Neutral | $3.19B | 21.37 | 12.35% | ― | 16.34% | 177.51% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
62 Neutral | $1.33B | 19.23 | 5.04% | ― | 8.98% | -26.29% | |
62 Neutral | $1.40B | 11.70 | 5.35% | 5.40% | 1.44% | 8.29% | |
52 Neutral | $1.71B | 27.30 | 6.02% | 9.15% | 0.26% | -19.45% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
ARZTY
Aryzta ADR
7.90
-0.90
-10.22%
FLO
Flowers Foods
8.08
-8.79
-52.11%
SMPL
Simply Good Foods
14.41
-21.82
-60.23%
FRPT
Freshpet
65.03
-17.85
-21.54%
NOMD
Nomad Foods
9.84
-8.42
-46.12%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.