ARKO Corp (ARKO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $553.35M
• Dividend Yield: 2.59%
• Average Volume (3M): 512.38K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 22.6
• Beta (1Y): 1.58
• Revenue Growth: -12.61%
• EPS Growth: -27.22%
• Country: US
• Employees: 11,772
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Specialty Retail
• EPS (TTM): 0.00
• Shares Outstanding: 110,891,330
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 526,378
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 512,377
• PEG Ratio: 1.47
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.40
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.07
• P/FCF Ratio: 7.89
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 7.59
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.55
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.64
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 16.41
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.22
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $7.23B

• Rating: 49 Neutral
• Price Target: $5.00 ▲(7.76% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/26/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/26/26

The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance—recent revenue declines, very thin/volatile profitability, and a return to slightly negative operating/free cash flow. Offsetting this are a constructive (but mixed) technical setup and a more positive earnings outlook focused on margin improvement and cost actions, while valuation remains a headwind due to the high P/E despite a modest dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Improved leverage

The sharp reduction in leverage after the APC IPO proceeds materially lowers financial risk and increases capital flexibility. A de-risked balance sheet supports M&A optionality, investment in higher-return remodels/NTI builds, and better resilience to fuel margin cycles over the medium term.

Margin expansion & cost actions

Sustained merchandising margin gains and structural cost reductions from dealerization lower fixed costs and maintenance capex. These changes improve operating leverage, making earnings less volume-dependent and enabling durable EBITDA improvement if conversions and disciplined cost control continue.

Loyalty, remodels & NTI traction

Stronger loyalty engagement and proven remodel/NTI ROI drive higher frequency, larger baskets, and better fuel capture per store. These customer-facing investments create durable revenue mix improvements and higher-margin sales per location versus competitors lacking similar loyalty and format programs.

Negative Factors

Thin, volatile profitability

Very low and volatile margins leave little room for error on fuel or merchandise mix shifts. Sustaining profitability requires consistent merchandise margin expansion and volume stabilization; otherwise, earnings remain exposed to commodity swings and promotional pressures over the medium term.

Weak cash generation

Negative and inconsistent free cash flow constrains reinvestment, debt paydown and shareholder returns. Even with improved leverage, recurring negative cash flow risks undermining the durability of investments (remodels, NTI builds) and limits buffer for fuel margin or volume shocks.

Top-line volume declines

Persistent declines in retail fuel gallons and same-store merchandise sales reduce the revenue base driving fixed-cost absorption. If volume trends persist, the company may struggle to convert margin gains into sustainable EBITDA growth despite cost cuts and remodel ROI, limiting long-term earnings durability.

ARKO Corp Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Arko Corp. operates convenience stores in the United States. It operates through three segments: Retail, Wholesale, and GPM Petroleum. The Retail segment engages in the sale of fuel and merchandise to retail consumers. The Wholesale segment supplies fuel to third-party dealers and consignment agents. The GPM Petroleum segment supplies fuel to independent dealers, and bulk and spot purchasers. It operates approximately 3,000 locations comprising approximately 1,400 company-operated stores and approximately 1,650 dealer sites. The company is based in Richmond, Virginia.

How the Company Makes Money

ARKO primarily makes money from (1) retail fuel sales at its convenience store locations and (2) inside-store merchandise sales. Retail fuel revenue is generated by selling gasoline and other motor fuels to consumers; earnings from this stream depend largely on fuel volumes sold and the per-gallon margin (the spread between retail pump prices and the company’s fuel costs, net of applicable taxes and credit-card/transaction fees where relevant). Merchandise revenue comes from the sale of convenience items (e.g., packaged beverages, snacks, prepared food, tobacco/nicotine, and other general merchandise), with profitability driven by product mix, pricing, promotional programs, and store-level operating execution. ARKO also earns revenue through its wholesale fuel distribution activities by supplying fuel to third-party dealers and other customers; this business typically generates income through per-gallon distribution margins and, where applicable, fees tied to logistics and supply arrangements. Additional earnings can come from franchise-related economics (such as franchise fees and/or ongoing royalties, if applicable to specific arrangements) and other store-level income sources (such as commissions or fees from services offered in-store), but the specific breakdown and terms vary by program and are not itemized here. Overall, ARKO’s cash generation is influenced by fuel demand trends, commodity price volatility and margin dynamics, in-store traffic, merchandising performance, and the scale and efficiency of its distribution and retail network.

ARKO Corp Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement trends are weak with contracting revenue and very thin, volatile margins (notably a sharp drop in EBITDA margin in 2025). While leverage improved materially in 2025, operating and free cash flow turned slightly negative again, which is a near-term financial quality concern.

Income Statement

Revenue has been contracting recently (down ~0.1% in 2024 and down ~2.5% in 2025), reversing the stronger growth posted in 2021–2022. Profitability is thin and volatile: net margin improved to ~0.46% in 2025 from ~0.24% in 2024, but remains well below 2021–2022 levels (~0.8%). Operating profitability is mixed, with EBITDA margin falling sharply in 2025 (~0.9%) versus ~2.8–3.3% in 2021–2024. Overall, earnings are positive but the business is operating with very limited margin for error amid slowing sales.

Balance Sheet

Leverage profile improved materially in 2025, with debt-to-equity dropping to ~0.43x from ~6–7x in 2020–2024, reducing financial risk. Equity remains modest relative to the asset base, but returns improved in 2025 (return on equity ~13.2%) versus 2024 (~5.5%). The key offset is the large year-to-year swing in reported leverage, which introduces uncertainty around sustainability and balance-sheet stability.

Cash Flow

Cash generation weakened significantly in 2025, with operating cash flow and free cash flow turning slightly negative (about -$4.2M), following positive free cash flow in 2022–2024. Cash flow has also been inconsistent over time (notably negative free cash flow in 2021), which reduces flexibility for reinvestment, debt service, and shareholder returns. While 2024 showed solid cash generation, the 2025 reversal is a clear near-term concern.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	7.64B	8.73B	9.41B	9.14B	7.42B
Gross Profit	261.05M	397.22M	423.63M	418.55M	367.48M
EBITDA	255.98M	257.03M	265.88M	271.94M	242.28M
Net Income	22.74M	20.84M	34.37M	71.75M	59.20M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.53B	3.62B	3.65B	3.26B	2.94B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	311.47M	267.09M	222.01M	300.93M	310.95M
Total Debt	3.95B	2.58B	2.53B	2.26B	2.08B
Total Liabilities	3.17B	3.24B	3.27B	2.87B	2.59B
Stockholders Equity	367.24M	376.87M	376.10M	380.83M	353.45M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	65.22M	107.94M	24.89M	110.48M	-67.26M
Operating Cash Flow	192.59M	221.86M	136.09M	209.26M	159.19M
Investing Cash Flow	-119.79M	-114.86M	-296.82M	-175.49M	-171.78M
Financing Cash Flow	-41.51M	-56.00M	85.36M	10.55M	-26.38M

ARKO Corp Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 4.64
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ARKO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.64 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.83, below the 50-day MA of 5.63, and below the 200-day MA of 4.79, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.19 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 29.66 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 4.94 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ARKO.

ARKO Corp Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CASY	72 Outperform	$24.74B	43.17	17.55%	0.39%	13.33%	13.33%
GPC	63 Neutral	$13.86B	259.07	1.44%	3.33%	3.26%	-25.41%
GME	62 Neutral	$10.47B	32.36	8.27%	―	-12.13%	426.82%
ASO	62 Neutral	$3.27B	9.73	18.07%	1.04%	-0.65%	-10.35%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
AAP	50 Neutral	$2.97B	97.23	2.00%	2.53%	-19.41%	-957.94%
ARKO	49 Neutral	$553.35M	22.62	6.23%	2.59%	-12.61%	-27.22%

ARKO Corp Corporate Events

ARKO Corp Unlocks Capital Through ARKO Petroleum IPO

For the fourth quarter and full year ended Dec. 31, 2025, ARKO Corp. swung to quarterly net income of $1.9 million from a $2.3 million loss and grew full-year net income 9.1% to $22.7 million, while quarterly adjusted EBITDA rose 15.6% to $65.7 million and full-year adjusted EBITDA of $248.7 million landed above the midpoint of guidance. The company expanded merchandise and retail fuel margins despite lower fuel gallons and merchandise revenue, and its ongoing store conversion and remodel strategy — including the fas craves format launched in June 2025 — is delivering double-digit sales lifts and expected annualized operating income benefits exceeding $20 million plus over $10 million in projected G&A savings at scale.

On Feb. 13, 2026, ARKO’s subsidiary ARKO Petroleum Corp. completed an IPO that raised roughly $184 million, which the company used to reduce debt and bolster financial flexibility while retaining 75.9% of APC’s economic interests. Management highlighted the creation of two focused growth platforms, an accelerated channel-optimization plan targeting more dealer conversions and fleet fueling sites in 2026, continued investment in higher-margin retail sub-segments and new-to-industry locations, and a $0.03 per-share dividend payable March 20, 2026, underscoring a strategy aimed at reinforcing ARKO’s competitive position and cash generation in a fragmented fuel and convenience market.

The most recent analyst rating on (ARKO) stock is a Buy with a $6.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ARKO Corp stock, see the ARKO Stock Forecast page.

ARKO Corp Solidifies Control with APC IPO, Agreements

On February 13, 2026, ARKO Petroleum Corp., an indirect subsidiary of ARKO Corp., completed an initial public offering of 11,111,111 Class A shares, leaving ARKO Corp. with a controlling 75.9% economic interest and 94.0% voting power, and simultaneously put in place a suite of intercompany agreements defining management, tax, registration rights, employee matters and brand licensing. ARKO also restructured fuel supply and credit arrangements so that APC’s subsidiaries become the exclusive motor fuel distributors to ARKO’s stations for ten years, clarified how future acquisition opportunities will be shared, separated APC from certain legacy credit facilities while establishing its own revolving lines and intercompany notes, and realigned debt obligations to match the economics of APC’s business without incurring additional external borrowings.

The new fuel distribution and omnibus agreements cement APC’s role as ARKO’s sole fuel supplier for most locations, locking in long-term volume and pricing formulas that could stabilize APC’s cash flows while formalizing how convenience store and fuel distribution assets will be allocated between the entities. Parallel updates to tax, employee and insurance frameworks keep APC integrated within ARKO’s consolidated group while it transitions to stand‑alone public company status, and the credit facility amendments and intercompany notes shift collateral and repayment responsibilities internally, potentially improving transparency and capital flexibility for both ARKO and APC stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (ARKO) stock is a Buy with a $6.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ARKO Corp stock, see the ARKO Stock Forecast page.

ARKO Corp Announces Preliminary 2025 Results, APC IPO Roadshow

ARKO Corp. reported preliminary, unaudited financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, indicating that quarterly net income is expected to range from a loss of $1.8 million to income of $0.4 million, with Adjusted EBITDA between $63.1 million and $66.1 million. For full-year 2025, ARKO projected net income between $19.1 million and $21.3 million and Adjusted EBITDA between $246.0 million and $249.0 million, broadly in line with 2024 levels, and said it plans to release final results later in the quarter while also noting that subsidiary ARKO Petroleum Corp. has launched a roadshow for its initial public offering, underscoring the material role APC plays in the group’s overall performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (ARKO) stock is a Hold with a $5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ARKO Corp stock, see the ARKO Stock Forecast page.

ARKO Subsidiary APC Files Registration for Planned IPO

On December 19, 2025, ARKO Corp. announced that its wholly owned subsidiary, ARKO Petroleum Corp. (APC), filed a registration statement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for a proposed initial public offering of its Class A common stock, consolidating ARKO’s wholesale, fleet fueling and GPM Petroleum segments under APC, which would handle wholesale fuel distribution to most of ARKO’s fuel-selling convenience stores. The company also disclosed that public warrants assumed in its December 22, 2020 business combination with Haymaker Acquisition Corp. II, exercisable at $11.50 per share and traded on Nasdaq under the symbol ARKOW, will expire at 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time on December 22, 2025, with trading already suspended as of December 18, 2025, while Nasdaq proceeds to delist and deregister the warrants; ARKO emphasized that the listing of its common stock on Nasdaq under the ticker ARKO remains unaffected, clarifying the capital structure for existing shareholders as it moves forward with the planned APC offering.

The most recent analyst rating on (ARKO) stock is a Hold with a $5.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ARKO Corp stock, see the ARKO Stock Forecast page.