Monro Muffler (MNRO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $459.45M
• Dividend Yield: 5.5%
• Average Volume (3M): 740.40K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 14.0
• Beta (1Y): 1.01
• Revenue Growth: -2.58%
• EPS Growth: -179.55%
• Country: US
• Employees: 7,660
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Auto - Parts
• EPS (TTM): 0.16
• Shares Outstanding: 30,019,660
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 758,639
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 740,400
• PEG Ratio: 0.78
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.77
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.40
• P/FCF Ratio: 4.52
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.05
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.80
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.30
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 14.51
• 1Y Price Target: $30.00
• Price Target Upside: 96.08% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.55
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.17B

• Rating: 51 Neutral
• Price Target: $15.50 ▲(1.31% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/13/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/13/26

The score is held back primarily by deteriorated profitability and very weak price momentum (well below key moving averages with bearish MACD). These negatives are partially offset by resilient cash flow, manageable leverage, a supportive valuation profile (P/E ~14 and ~7.2% yield), and earnings-call evidence of operational improvements despite near-term sales and cost headwinds.

Positive Factors

Consistent cash generation and FCF

Sustained positive operating and free cash flow provides durable internal funding for capex, dividends and restructuring costs. This cash generation reduces reliance on external financing, supports the dividend policy and gives management runway to execute the turnaround over the next several quarters.

Manageable leverage and credit availability

Leverage below parity and a large undrawn revolver give financial flexibility to absorb near-term profit volatility and fund strategic investments. Manageable debt levels lower refinancing risk and support continued dividend and capital allocation choices during recovery.

Operational improvements and rollout of marketing/CRM

Measurable gains—positive comps, margin expansion, leaner inventory and scaled marketing/CRM—reflect structural improvement in operating execution. These initiatives can sustainably lift same-store revenue and margins as digital customer acquisition and inventory efficiency scale across the footprint.

Negative Factors

Deteriorated profitability and margin compression

A sharp slide in profitability and compressed EBITDA margins weaken free cash flow durability and returns. If margins don't stabilize, the firm may face structural earnings shortfalls that constrain reinvestment, shareholder payouts and debt servicing over multiple quarters.

Strategic store closures reduce sales base

Planned closures remove underperforming revenue but permanently shrink the company’s sales base, potentially lowering scale benefits. The trade-off between short-term margin improvement and long-term top-line capacity creates execution risk in restoring growth and purchasing economies.

Rising technician labor and reinvestment costs; low cash on hand

Structural wage inflation and elevated reinvestment/consulting expenses pressure store-level margins. Combined with modest cash reserves, these cost trends increase reliance on credit availability and execution of efficiency programs to prevent prolonged margin erosion and balance-sheet strain.

Monro Muffler Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Monro, Inc. provides automotive undercar repair, and tire sales and services in the United States. It offers replacement tires and tire related services; routine maintenance services on passenger cars, light trucks, and vans; products and services for brakes; mufflers and exhaust systems; and steering, drive train, suspension, and wheel alignment. The company also provides automotive undercar repair services, including tire replacement sales, and tire related service. The company operates its stores under the brand names of Monro Auto Service and Tire Centers, Tire Choice Auto Service Centers, Mr. Tire Auto Service Centers, Car-X Tire & Auto, Tire Warehouse Tires for Less, Ken Towery's Tire & Auto Care, Mountain View Tire & Auto Service, Tire Barn Warehouse, and Free Service Tire & Auto Centers. As of March 26, 2022, it operated 1,304 company-operated stores, 76 Car-X franchised locations, seven wholesale locations, and three retread facilities in 32 states. The company was formerly known as Monro Muffler Brake, Inc. and changed its name to Monro, Inc. in August 2017. Monro, Inc. was founded in 1957 and is headquartered in Rochester, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

Monro primarily makes money by selling automotive services and products directly to customers through its company-operated retail service locations. Its major revenue streams include (1) service revenue from labor-based vehicle repair and maintenance work (e.g., diagnostics, brake work, exhaust, steering/suspension, and other mechanical repairs) and (2) product revenue from selling tires and automotive parts/consumables used in those services (e.g., tires, related undercar components, and maintenance items such as oil and filters), including the associated installation. Revenue is recognized when services are performed and products are sold to retail customers at its locations. Additional factors that support earnings include the scale benefits of operating a large store base (purchasing, distribution, and marketing efficiencies) and relationships with tire and parts suppliers that enable the company to source branded products for resale; specific partnership terms or supplier names are null.

Monro Muffler Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Overall fundamentals are mixed. The income statement is the key weakness (declining sales, sharp margin compression, and losses in 2025/TTM), while the balance sheet looks reasonably supported with manageable leverage. Cash flow is a relative strength with positive operating cash flow and free cash flow, but the cash-to-debt cushion has weakened, increasing execution risk if profitability doesn’t stabilize.

Income Statement

Profitability has deteriorated meaningfully. Revenue has been declining for several years (including down ~1% in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months)), and earnings swung from positive in 2022–2024 to a net loss in 2025 annual and a larger loss in TTM. Margins have compressed sharply: EBITDA margin fell from low-double-digits in 2023–2024 to ~5% in TTM, and operating profitability is now pressured, reducing overall earnings quality and resilience.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable but not light. Debt sits below equity (debt-to-equity ~0.83 in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), improved versus prior years closer to ~0.93–1.03), and equity remains solid relative to total assets. The key weakness is returns: shareholder returns have turned negative in the most recent periods as losses emerged, which can become a balance-sheet risk if profitability doesn’t recover.

Cash Flow

Cash generation remains a relative bright spot. Despite net losses in 2025 annual and TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), the company is still producing positive operating cash flow and free cash flow, with TTM free cash flow higher than the prior annual period. That said, cash flow as a share of debt is modest in the latest period versus stronger coverage in earlier years, suggesting less cushion if operating conditions remain pressured.

Breakdown	TTM	Mar 2025	Mar 2024	Mar 2023	Mar 2022	Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.18B	1.20B	1.28B	1.33B	1.36B	1.13B
Gross Profit	409.67M	417.64M	452.10M	456.18M	481.84M	395.19M
EBITDA	64.80M	82.38M	144.09M	156.79M	183.09M	149.73M
Net Income	-12.52M	-5.18M	37.57M	39.05M	61.57M	34.32M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.57B	1.64B	1.69B	1.78B	1.87B	1.81B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	4.91M	20.76M	6.56M	4.88M	7.95M	29.96M
Total Debt	485.76M	529.36M	611.01M	668.89M	803.36M	802.76M
Total Liabilities	965.03M	1.02B	1.04B	1.08B	1.09B	1.06B
Stockholders Equity	604.94M	620.76M	656.77M	694.92M	782.91M	749.68M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	49.63M	105.55M	99.72M	176.03M	145.93M	133.18M
Operating Cash Flow	77.14M	131.91M	125.20M	215.02M	173.76M	184.91M
Investing Cash Flow	5.62M	-1.23M	-1.96M	26.55M	-109.80M	-66.26M
Financing Cash Flow	-88.02M	-116.48M	-121.56M	-244.63M	-85.97M	-434.16M

Monro Muffler Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 15.30
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For MNRO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 15.3 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.21, below the 50-day MA of 20.21, and below the 200-day MA of 17.45, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.25 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 18.62 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 2.39 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for MNRO.

Monro Muffler Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
LKQ	68 Neutral	$7.49B	12.73	9.42%	4.00%	-3.71%	-0.27%
DORM	65 Neutral	$3.10B	18.56	14.34%	―	7.94%	34.84%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
HLLY	55 Neutral	$362.73M	25.68	-5.54%	―	-3.20%	-257.73%
SMP	53 Neutral	$806.33M	10.25	11.76%	3.32%	23.96%	11.01%
MNRO	51 Neutral	$459.45M	14.01	-2.06%	5.50%	-2.58%	-179.55%
MPAA	51 Neutral	$194.41M	33.64	0.75%	―	6.72%	―

Monro Muffler Corporate Events

Monro Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend for Shareholders

On February 13, 2026, Monro, Inc. announced that its Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.28 per share for the fourth quarter of its 2026 fiscal year, ending March 28, 2026. The dividend will be paid on March 10, 2026, to shareholders of record as of February 24, 2026, and applies to all outstanding common shares, including those tied to Class C Convertible Preferred Stock.

The dividend declaration underscores Monro’s continued commitment to returning capital to shareholders, signaling confidence in its cash generation and financial stability following approximately $1.2 billion in fiscal 2025 sales. The move may reassure investors about the company’s ongoing ability to fund shareholder distributions while maintaining its operations and growth strategy in the competitive automotive service and tire market.

The most recent analyst rating on (MNRO) stock is a Hold with a $21.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Monro Muffler stock, see the MNRO Stock Forecast page.