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Holley
(NYSE:HLLY)
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Rating:53Neutral
Price Target:
$2.50
▼(-5.30% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/27/26
The score is primarily held back by mixed financial performance (muted/declining revenue, thin/volatile profitability, and elevated leverage) and weak technical trend signals (below key moving averages with negative MACD). Offsetting factors include a moderate P/E valuation and a generally constructive earnings-call tone focused on margin/cash improvement, with an additional positive from the new buyback authorization.
Positive Factors
Margin resiliency and EBITDA stability
Sustained adjusted EBITDA margin expansion and stable EBITDA through a revenue dip indicate durable cost discipline and operational leverage. This supports cash flow and reinvestment capacity across cycles, making profitability less dependent on short-term top-line swings.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage and covenant pressure
Leverage near ~3.8x leaves limited financial flexibility in a cyclical auto‑parts market. High leverage raises refinancing and covenant risks, constrains ability to absorb demand shocks, and forces prioritization of deleveraging over growth investments for the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Margin resiliency and EBITDA stability
Sustained adjusted EBITDA margin expansion and stable EBITDA through a revenue dip indicate durable cost discipline and operational leverage. This supports cash flow and reinvestment capacity across cycles, making profitability less dependent on short-term top-line swings.
Read all positive factors
Holley (HLLY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$300.92M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)760.61K
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.9
Beta (1Y)1.43
Revenue Growth1.87%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees1,467
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryAuto - Parts
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.19
Shares Outstanding120,369,850
10 Day Avg. Volume461,828
30 Day Avg. Volume760,606
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.14
Price to Book (P/B)1.10
Price to Sales (P/S)0.80
P/FCF Ratio36.02
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.82
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.40
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.32
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.97
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$5.00Price Target Upside89.39% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)0.32
Revenue Forecast (FY)$623.52M
Holley Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Holley Inc. is a leading provider of automotive aftermarket products, catering to car and truck enthusiasts across the United States, Canada, Europe, and China. Its extensive product portfolio encompasses a wide array of performance-enhancing comp...
How the Company Makes Money
Holley makes money primarily by selling branded automotive performance and aftermarket parts and related accessories. Its revenue model centers on: (1) Product sales across a broad catalog of performance and restoration components (e.g., EFI and f...
Holley Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call balanced near-term top-line pressures (Q1 sales down 3.7%, weather and distributor inventory effects, a negative Q1 free cash flow) with clear operational progress (adjusted EBITDA stability, margin expansion, $6.5M in cost savings), strategic actions (HRX acquisition, portfolio rebalancing expected to generate >$15M and 75–150 bps of margin expansion) and improving channel trends entering Q2 (April mid-single-digit growth). Given the company's maintained 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance, active cash-generation and deleveraging plans, and visible early recovery in April, the positives around profitability, cost actions and strategic repositioning outweigh the short-term revenue headwinds.Positive Updates
Margin Resilience and EBITDA Stability
Adjusted EBITDA of $27.3M was essentially flat year-over-year while adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 71 basis points to 18.5%, demonstrating disciplined cost control despite lower revenue.
Negative Updates
Revenue Decline and Sales Headwinds
Net sales were $147.3M, down 3.7% year-over-year; company attributes the decline to elevated distributor inventories, a January price increase pull-forward and severe winter weather that delayed retail activity.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Margin Resilience and EBITDA Stability
Adjusted EBITDA of $27.3M was essentially flat year-over-year while adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 71 basis points to 18.5%, demonstrating disciplined cost control despite lower revenue.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Holley updated full‑year net sales guidance to $610–$640 million (a $15 million reduction tied to portfolio rebalancing) while keeping 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance unchanged at $127–$137 million and the core business revenue range intact (2–7% organic); the company reiterated long‑term targets of at least 6% organic top‑line growth, 40% gross margin and >20% adjusted EBITDA margin. Management expects $5–7 million of additional operational improvements in 2026, $10–15 million of inventory reduction, and >$15 million of one‑time net cash from portfolio actions (phased roughly $1M in Q2, $7M in Q3, $7M in Q4), which they forecast will expand adjusted EBITDA margins ~75–150 bps (including ≥$1M annualized), improve leverage by ~0.15x and increase inventory turns ~5%. Q1 free cash flow was negative $6.3M (an improvement of ~$4.5M YoY), Q2 FCF is expected to meaningfully improve, April showed mid‑single‑digit (over 6%) growth, covenant net leverage was 3.84x at quarter end (down 0.48x YoY) with a year‑end target below 3.5x, and M&A plans target 5–10 bolt‑ons over 24 months (typical targets $5–$10M revenue, double‑digit growth, and post‑synergy EBITDA margins ≥20%).Holley Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
54
Neutral
Balance Sheet
49
Neutral
Cash Flow
56
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 607.80M | 613.51M | 602.22M | 659.70M | 688.41M | 692.85M |
| Gross Profit | 256.02M | 252.46M | 246.74M | 256.09M | 253.66M | 286.81M |
| EBITDA | 106.58M | 103.95M | 106.70M | 121.54M | 148.95M | 152.47M |
| Net Income | 23.61M | 19.18M | -23.23M | 19.18M | 73.77M | -27.14M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.18B | 1.16B | 1.13B | 1.20B | 1.25B | 1.19B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 33.07M | 37.23M | 56.09M | 41.08M | 26.15M | 36.33M |
| Total Debt | 581.46M | 528.49M | 557.91M | 589.12M | 680.67M | 645.55M |
| Total Liabilities | 722.85M | 715.03M | 712.17M | 762.19M | 833.65M | 888.57M |
| Stockholders Equity | 455.96M | 448.93M | 421.15M | 441.15M | 415.99M | 304.49M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 19.36M | 13.67M | 40.09M | 82.16M | -1.28M | 6.35M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 51.21M | 46.22M | 46.90M | 88.09M | 12.31M | 21.58M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -34.31M | -32.23M | 2.02M | -4.45M | -25.04M | -134.09M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -21.24M | -32.61M | -34.60M | -69.01M | 2.85M | 77.16M |
Holley Technical Analysis
Neutral
2.64
Price Trends
2.65
Negative
3.01
Negative
3.37
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.05
Negative
48.73
Neutral
66.07
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HLLY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 2.64 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.49, below the 50-day MA of 2.65, and below the 200-day MA of 3.37, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.73 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.07 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for HLLY.
Holley Risk Analysis
Holley disclosed 58 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Holley reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Holley Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $324.99M | 12.81 | 10.75% | ― | 4.22% | 23.13% | |
69 Neutral | $549.84M | 36.03 | 3.70% | 2.11% | -34.22% | -71.55% | |
64 Neutral | $265.52M | 21.50 | 4.75% | ― | 4.28% | ― | |
63 Neutral | $6.10B | 18.38 | -42.77% | 1.49% | 7.36% | 34.94% | |
62 Neutral | $826.41M | 18.14 | 6.69% | 3.32% | 18.32% | 45.19% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
53 Neutral | $300.92M | 12.92 | 5.30% | ― | 1.87% | ― |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
HLLY
Holley
2.52
0.45
21.74%
MLR
Miller Industries
48.99
5.45
12.51%
MPAA
Motorcar Parts Of America
14.05
2.54
22.07%
SMP
Standard Motor Products
37.47
5.36
16.69%
STRT
Strattec Security
78.28
15.35
24.39%
GTX
Garrett Motion
32.30
21.09
188.14%
Holley Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Holley Board Authorizes $25 Million Share Repurchase Program
Positive
May 26, 2026
On May 26, 2026, Holley Inc. announced that its Board of Directors approved a share repurchase program authorizing up to $25 million in buybacks of the company’s common stock, with purchases allowed on the open market or via private transact...
Business Operations and StrategyShareholder Meetings
Holley shareholders approve proposals at 2026 annual meeting
Positive
May 6, 2026
On May 1, 2026, Holley Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, at which shareholders elected directors to serve until the 2029 annual meeting and ratified the appointment of Grant Thornton LLP as the company’s independent auditor ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Holley Announces Executive Vice President and General Counsel Exit
Neutral
Apr 8, 2026
Holley Inc. announced that Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary Carly Kennedy will depart the company after four years in the role, with both parties agreeing on April 7, 2026 that she will remain employed through May ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.