Holley (HLLY)
NYSE:HLLY
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Holley
(NYSE:HLLY)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$3.00
▼(-9.64% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/05/26
The score is driven primarily by mid-range financial quality: solid margins and improving free cash flow, tempered by leverage and inconsistent net profitability. Earnings-call guidance and the deleveraging plan are constructive, but the technical setup is weak with the stock trading below key moving averages, and valuation lacks clear upside support at a ~25.7 P/E with no dividend.
Positive Factors
Sustained margin expansion and operating profitability
Holley has delivered durable gross- and adjusted-EBITDA margin expansion through FY2025, reflecting better mix, pricing and cost actions. Higher sustainable margins improve cash generation capacity, fund reinvestment, and provide resilience against cyclical revenue swings over the next 2–6 months and beyond.
Negative Factors
Leverage remains a structural constraint
Despite progress, elevated leverage and negative ROE indicate capital is not reliably generating shareholder returns. Higher leverage limits capacity for M&A or buybacks, increases refinancing and covenant risk, and constrains flexibility if cash flow weakens in the next several quarters.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Sustained margin expansion and operating profitability
Holley has delivered durable gross- and adjusted-EBITDA margin expansion through FY2025, reflecting better mix, pricing and cost actions. Higher sustainable margins improve cash generation capacity, fund reinvestment, and provide resilience against cyclical revenue swings over the next 2–6 months and beyond.
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Holley (HLLY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$382.31M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)760.61K
Price to Earnings (P/E)25.7
Beta (1Y)1.40
Revenue Growth1.87%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees1,467
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryAuto - Parts
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.04
Shares Outstanding119,847,830
10 Day Avg. Volume461,828
30 Day Avg. Volume760,606
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.14
Price to Book (P/B)1.10
Price to Sales (P/S)0.80
P/FCF Ratio34.35
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.27
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.41
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.30
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.20
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$5.83Price Target Upside75.70% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)0.34
Revenue Forecast (FY)$639.50M
Holley Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Holley Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets automotive aftermarket products for car and truck enthusiasts in the United States, Canada, Europe, and China. The company's products include carburetors, fuel pumps, fuel injection systems, nitrous o...
How the Company Makes Money
Holley primarily makes money by selling automotive aftermarket performance and restoration products across multiple brands. Revenue is generated from product sales to (1) traditional wholesale/distribution channels (aftermarket parts distributors ...
Holley Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 04, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized clear and measurable progress across revenue, margins, cash flow and leverage: sustained core growth (four consecutive quarters), margin expansion (gross and adjusted EBITDA), meaningful free cash flow, and significant deleveraging. Management also outlined a concrete 2026 plan with mid-single-digit revenue growth guidance, incremental cost synergies and continued investment (ERP/WMS, product development). Headwinds include higher SG&A from strategic investments, incomplete inventory reduction, tariff-related pricing pressures, uneven consumer demand (K-shaped recovery), and near-term weather-related disruption. On balance the positive operating and financial momentum and the credible deleveraging trajectory outweigh the near-term challenges.Positive Updates
Return to Reported Net Sales Growth
Fiscal 2025 net sales of $613.5 million, representing 1.9% reported year-over-year growth and core net sales growth of 6.6% (driven by 3.8% volume and 2.8% pricing). This is the company's first full-year top-line growth since 2021.
Negative Updates
Adjusted Net Income Pressure
FY2025 adjusted net income was $21.2 million versus $24.8 million in FY2024 (down ~14.5%); Q4 adjusted net income was $4.6 million versus $12.6 million prior year (down ~63.5%), reflecting higher operating investments and timing differences despite improved net income on a GAAP basis due to prior-year impairments.
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Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Return to Reported Net Sales Growth
Fiscal 2025 net sales of $613.5 million, representing 1.9% reported year-over-year growth and core net sales growth of 6.6% (driven by 3.8% volume and 2.8% pricing). This is the company's first full-year top-line growth since 2021.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Holley guided fiscal 2026 revenue of $625M–$655M (implying roughly +4% to +4.5% growth, midpoint ≈+4.3%) and adjusted EBITDA of $127M–$137M (≈+6.5% at the midpoint), with capital expenditures of $15M–$20M; management said the plan is to deliver over 4% revenue growth and more than $15M of cost synergies in 2026, including $5M–$7M of incremental operational savings and $10M–$15M of targeted inventory reduction, begin ERP/WMS implementation (go‑live planned later), exit the year below 3.5× covenant net leverage (progressing toward ~3.0× in 2027), and sustain long‑term targets of ~40% gross margin and at least 20% adjusted EBITDA margin while maintaining conservative liquidity.Holley Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
45
Neutral
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 613.51M | 602.22M | 659.70M | 688.41M | 692.85M |
| Gross Profit | 252.46M | 246.74M | 256.09M | 253.66M | 286.81M |
| EBITDA | 110.98M | 106.70M | 121.54M | 148.95M | 152.47M |
| Net Income | 19.18M | -23.23M | 19.18M | 73.77M | -27.14M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.16B | 1.13B | 1.20B | 1.25B | 1.19B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 37.23M | 56.09M | 41.08M | 26.15M | 36.33M |
| Total Debt | 522.65M | 557.91M | 589.12M | 680.67M | 645.55M |
| Total Liabilities | 715.03M | 712.17M | 762.19M | 833.65M | 888.57M |
| Stockholders Equity | 448.93M | 421.15M | 441.15M | 415.99M | 304.49M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 14.33M | 40.09M | 82.16M | -1.28M | 6.35M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 48.94M | 46.90M | 88.09M | 12.31M | 21.58M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -34.61M | 2.02M | -4.45M | -25.04M | -134.09M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -32.95M | -34.60M | -69.01M | 2.85M | 77.16M |
Holley Technical Analysis
Neutral
3.32
Price Trends
3.48
Negative
3.82
Negative
3.44
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.06
Negative
55.72
Neutral
65.35
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HLLY, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 3.32 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.03, below the 50-day MA of 3.48, and below the 200-day MA of 3.44, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.72 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 65.35 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for HLLY.
Holley Risk Analysis
Holley disclosed 58 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Holley reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Holley Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $311.69M | 15.92 | 12.07% | ― | 6.01% | 65.76% | |
72 Outperform | $529.24M | 18.59 | 7.39% | 2.11% | -37.16% | -63.74% | |
63 Neutral | $3.86B | 11.23 | -39.65% | 1.49% | 3.14% | 21.77% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
55 Neutral | $382.31M | 25.68 | 4.38% | ― | 1.87% | ― | |
53 Neutral | $817.19M | 10.25 | 11.76% | 3.32% | 22.36% | 49.18% | |
51 Neutral | $210.74M | 33.64 | 0.75% | ― | 2.24% | ― |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
HLLY
Holley
3.19
1.04
48.37%
MLR
Miller Industries
46.54
6.51
16.27%
MPAA
Motorcar Parts Of America
10.97
2.06
23.12%
SMP
Standard Motor Products
36.90
10.70
40.87%
STRT
Strattec Security
74.57
41.25
123.80%
GTX
Garrett Motion
20.49
11.44
126.53%
Holley Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Holley Announces Executive Vice President and General Counsel Exit
Neutral
Apr 8, 2026
Holley Inc. announced that Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary Carly Kennedy will depart the company after four years in the role, with both parties agreeing on April 7, 2026 that she will remain employed through May ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.