Holley (HLLY) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $472.85M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 733.41K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 18.6
• Beta (1Y): 1.50
• Revenue Growth: -7.27%
• EPS Growth: -233.07%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,467
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 83
• Industry: Auto - Parts
• EPS (TTM): 0.09
• Shares Outstanding: 119,405,914
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 559,335
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 733,411
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.63
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.30
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.00
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 15.19
• 1Y Price Target: $4.13
• Price Target Upside: 6.17% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6

• Rating: 63 Neutral
• Price Target: $4.00 ▲(2.83% Upside)

Holley's overall stock score reflects a mix of strong technical momentum and positive corporate events, offset by financial performance challenges and unattractive valuation. The company's efforts to reduce debt and improve cash flow are positive, but profitability and revenue growth remain concerns.

Positive Factors

Debt Management

Debt prepayment suggests sustained business momentum and puts HLLY on track for sub-4x leverage by year-end.

Market Reaction

The stock witnessed a significant 30% jump, indicating strong market reaction to the company's performance and outlook.

Sales Growth

The company saw a second consecutive quarter of organic sales growth in Q2, +3.9%, following +3.3% in Q1.

Negative Factors

Market Risks

Risks to the thesis include the inherently discretionary nature of Holley’s performance aftermarket offerings, potential disruptions related to the significant transformation efforts across the business, and the shift to EVs and the introduction of new vehicles.

Sales Guidance

Updated and narrowed sales guidance is considered conservative, while profitability guidance was increased to include tariffs.

Holley Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Holley Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets automotive aftermarket products for car and truck enthusiasts in the United States, Canada, Europe, and China. The company's products include carburetors, fuel pumps, fuel injection systems, nitrous oxide injection systems, superchargers, exhaust headers, mufflers, distributors, ignition components, engine tuners, automotive performance plumbing products, and exhaust products as well as shifters, converters, transmission kits, transmissions, tuners, and automotive software. It also offers wheels, chassis and suspension products, helmets, head and neck restraints, seat belts, firesuits, and electronic control and monitoring systems. The company sells its products under the Holley, Holley EFI, APR, MSD, Flowmaster, Powerteq, Accel, and Simpson brands to retailers directly, as well as through distributors and online channel. The company was founded in 1903 and is headquartered in Bowling Green, Kentucky.

How the Company Makes Money

Holley Inc. generates revenue primarily through the sale of its high-performance automotive aftermarket products. The company's revenue streams include direct sales to consumers via its online platform and retail locations, as well as wholesale distribution to automotive parts retailers and specialty shops. Holley also leverages partnerships with racing teams and automotive brands to enhance its market presence and drive brand loyalty. Additionally, the company invests in marketing and promotional activities aimed at automotive enthusiasts, which helps to maintain a strong customer base and stimulate sales growth. Key factors contributing to Holley's earnings include its diverse product portfolio, strong brand reputation, and strategic market positioning within the automotive aftermarket industry.

Holley Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Holley's financial performance is under pressure with declining revenues and profitability challenges. The balance sheet is burdened by high leverage, increasing financial risk. Cash flow improvements are a positive sign, but reliance on cash flow over profitability is concerning. The company needs to address revenue growth and operational efficiency to improve its financial health.

Income Statement

Holley's income statement shows a declining revenue trend with a significant drop in the TTM period. The gross profit margin is relatively stable, but the net profit margin is negative, indicating losses. EBIT and EBITDA margins have decreased over time, reflecting operational challenges. The revenue growth rate is negative, highlighting a contraction in sales.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio, indicating significant leverage, which poses financial risk. The return on equity has turned negative in the TTM period, suggesting inefficiencies in generating returns for shareholders. The equity ratio is moderate, providing some stability in asset financing.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a strong free cash flow growth in the TTM period, recovering from previous declines. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is positive, indicating some cash generation capability despite net losses. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio suggests reliance on cash flow rather than profitability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	593.80M	602.22M	659.70M	688.41M	692.85M	504.18M
Gross Profit	256.71M	238.54M	256.09M	253.66M	286.81M	208.24M
EBITDA	50.67M	55.20M	117.51M	148.95M	152.47M	104.42M
Net Income	-30.39M	-23.23M	19.18M	73.77M	-27.14M	32.86M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.16B	1.13B	1.20B	1.25B	1.19B	1.07B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	63.84M	56.09M	41.08M	26.15M	36.33M	71.67M
Total Debt	555.63M	557.91M	615.46M	680.67M	645.55M	674.99M
Total Liabilities	720.39M	712.17M	762.19M	833.65M	888.57M	824.95M
Stockholders Equity	437.84M	421.15M	441.15M	415.99M	304.49M	240.38M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	24.84M	40.09M	82.16M	-390.00K	6.71M	78.93M
Operating Cash Flow	35.02M	46.90M	88.09M	12.31M	21.58M	88.41M
Investing Cash Flow	-16.46M	2.02M	-4.45M	-25.04M	-134.09M	-165.62M
Financing Cash Flow	-9.02M	-34.60M	-69.01M	2.85M	77.16M	140.54M

Holley Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 3.89
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HLLY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3.89 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.73, above the 50-day MA of 2.82, and above the 200-day MA of 2.61, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.35 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 66.50 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 52.98 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HLLY.

Holley Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PLOW	81 Outperform	$772.10M	12.13	25.41%	3.53%	1.47%	131.61%
SMP	80 Outperform	$879.51M	13.56	9.90%	3.05%	17.98%	9.41%
STRT	78 Outperform	$283.76M	14.47	8.85%	―	5.08%	12.98%
MPAA	68 Neutral	$287.77M	185.10	0.63%	―	6.59%	―
HLLY	63 Neutral	$472.85M	18.60	-6.75%	―	-7.27%	-233.07%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$17.97B	12.87	-5.29%	2.97%	1.26%	-14.45%
SSUP	43 Neutral	$3.21M	―	-80.07%	―	-8.31%	-56.03%

Holley Corporate Events

Holley Announces $15M Debt Reduction Initiative

On August 27, 2025, Holley Performance Brands announced a $15 million reduction in its first lien term loan facility, marking a total debt repayment of $90 million since September 2023. This strategic move underscores Holley’s commitment to strengthening its balance sheet and enhancing financial flexibility, with the company expecting to achieve its lowest leverage ratio in over three years by year-end, thus building investor confidence and positioning for sustainable growth.

Holley Approves Equity Awards for Key Executives

On August 12, 2025, Holley Inc.’s Compensation and Talent Committee approved one-time grants of restricted stock units (RSUs) and performance stock units (PSUs) to key executives, including the CEO, CFO, and General Counsel, under the company’s 2021 Omnibus Incentive Plan. These equity awards are designed to align the interests of executives with company performance and provide incentives for continued employment. Additionally, the company entered into Change in Control Severance Letter Agreements with the CFO and General Counsel, extending severance benefits in the event of a change in control, which underscores the company’s commitment to retaining key leadership during potential transitions.