Holley (HLLY)
NYSE:HLLY
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Holley
(NYSE:HLLY)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$3.00
▲(4.17% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/05/26
The score is driven primarily by mid-range financial quality: solid margins and improving free cash flow, tempered by leverage and inconsistent net profitability. Earnings-call guidance and the deleveraging plan are constructive, but the technical setup is weak with the stock trading below key moving averages, and valuation lacks clear upside support at a ~25.7 P/E with no dividend.
Positive Factors
Margin Sustainability
Sustained high gross margins (mid-40s in Q4, ~43% FY) indicate durable pricing power and favorable product mix in the enthusiast aftermarket. This margin base supports the company’s target ~20% adjusted EBITDA, cushions tariff/commodity pressure, and underpins long-term cash generation.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage & Negative ROE
Persistently elevated leverage and negative ROE signal the company’s capital base is not yet delivering consistent shareholder returns. High leverage constrains strategic optionality, raises sensitivity to demand or rate shocks, and limits the pace at which management can invest or pursue M&A without rebuilding equity.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Margin Sustainability
Sustained high gross margins (mid-40s in Q4, ~43% FY) indicate durable pricing power and favorable product mix in the enthusiast aftermarket. This margin base supports the company’s target ~20% adjusted EBITDA, cushions tariff/commodity pressure, and underpins long-term cash generation.
Read all positive factors
Holley (HLLY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$345.16M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)760.61K
Price to Earnings (P/E)19.6
Beta (1Y)1.41
Revenue Growth-3.20%
EPS Growth-257.73%
CountryUS
Employees1,467
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryAuto - Parts
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.04
Shares Outstanding119,847,830
10 Day Avg. Volume461,828
30 Day Avg. Volume760,606
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.14
Price to Book (P/B)1.10
Price to Sales (P/S)0.80
P/FCF Ratio34.35
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.41
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.35
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.16
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.84
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$5.83Price Target Upside102.43% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)0.38
Revenue Forecast (FY)$629.95M
Holley Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Holley Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets automotive aftermarket products for car and truck enthusiasts in the United States, Canada, Europe, and China. The company's products include carburetors, fuel pumps, fuel injection systems, nitrous o...
How the Company Makes Money
Holley primarily makes money by selling automotive aftermarket performance and restoration products across multiple brands. Revenue is generated from product sales to (1) traditional wholesale/distribution channels (aftermarket parts distributors ...
Holley Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 04, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized clear and measurable progress across revenue, margins, cash flow and leverage: sustained core growth (four consecutive quarters), margin expansion (gross and adjusted EBITDA), meaningful free cash flow, and significant deleveraging. Management also outlined a concrete 2026 plan with mid-single-digit revenue growth guidance, incremental cost synergies and continued investment (ERP/WMS, product development). Headwinds include higher SG&A from strategic investments, incomplete inventory reduction, tariff-related pricing pressures, uneven consumer demand (K-shaped recovery), and near-term weather-related disruption. On balance the positive operating and financial momentum and the credible deleveraging trajectory outweigh the near-term challenges.Positive Updates
Return to Reported Net Sales Growth
Fiscal 2025 net sales of $613.5 million, representing 1.9% reported year-over-year growth and core net sales growth of 6.6% (driven by 3.8% volume and 2.8% pricing). This is the company's first full-year top-line growth since 2021.
Negative Updates
Adjusted Net Income Pressure
FY2025 adjusted net income was $21.2 million versus $24.8 million in FY2024 (down ~14.5%); Q4 adjusted net income was $4.6 million versus $12.6 million prior year (down ~63.5%), reflecting higher operating investments and timing differences despite improved net income on a GAAP basis due to prior-year impairments.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Return to Reported Net Sales Growth
Fiscal 2025 net sales of $613.5 million, representing 1.9% reported year-over-year growth and core net sales growth of 6.6% (driven by 3.8% volume and 2.8% pricing). This is the company's first full-year top-line growth since 2021.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Holley guided fiscal 2026 revenue of $625M–$655M (implying roughly +4% to +4.5% growth, midpoint ≈+4.3%) and adjusted EBITDA of $127M–$137M (≈+6.5% at the midpoint), with capital expenditures of $15M–$20M; management said the plan is to deliver over 4% revenue growth and more than $15M of cost synergies in 2026, including $5M–$7M of incremental operational savings and $10M–$15M of targeted inventory reduction, begin ERP/WMS implementation (go‑live planned later), exit the year below 3.5× covenant net leverage (progressing toward ~3.0× in 2027), and sustain long‑term targets of ~40% gross margin and at least 20% adjusted EBITDA margin while maintaining conservative liquidity.Holley Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
45
Neutral
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 613.51M | 602.22M | 659.70M | 688.41M | 692.85M |
| Gross Profit | 252.46M | 246.74M | 256.09M | 253.66M | 286.81M |
| EBITDA | 110.98M | 106.70M | 121.54M | 148.95M | 152.47M |
| Net Income | 19.18M | -23.23M | 19.18M | 73.77M | -27.14M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.16B | 1.13B | 1.20B | 1.25B | 1.19B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 37.23M | 56.09M | 41.08M | 26.15M | 36.33M |
| Total Debt | 522.65M | 557.91M | 589.12M | 680.67M | 645.55M |
| Total Liabilities | 715.03M | 712.17M | 762.19M | 833.65M | 888.57M |
| Stockholders Equity | 448.93M | 421.15M | 441.15M | 415.99M | 304.49M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 14.33M | 40.09M | 82.16M | -1.28M | 6.35M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 48.94M | 46.90M | 88.09M | 12.31M | 21.58M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -34.61M | 2.02M | -4.45M | -25.04M | -134.09M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -32.95M | -34.60M | -69.01M | 2.85M | 77.16M |
Holley Technical Analysis
Negative
2.88
Price Trends
3.78
Negative
3.87
Negative
3.36
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.29
Positive
32.86
Neutral
39.94
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HLLY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.88 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.25, below the 50-day MA of 3.78, and below the 200-day MA of 3.36, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.29 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 32.86 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 39.94 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HLLY.
Holley Risk Analysis
Holley disclosed 58 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Holley reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Holley Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $330.79M | 15.92 | 12.07% | ― | 6.83% | 46.38% | |
72 Outperform | $510.82M | 18.59 | 7.39% | 2.11% | -36.91% | -56.72% | |
63 Neutral | $3.48B | 11.23 | -39.65% | 1.49% | -1.09% | 56.16% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
55 Neutral | $345.16M | 19.57 | -5.54% | ― | -3.20% | -257.73% | |
53 Neutral | $805.89M | 10.25 | 11.76% | 3.32% | 23.96% | 11.01% | |
51 Neutral | $214.01M | 33.64 | 0.75% | ― | 6.72% | ― |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
HLLY
Holley
2.88
0.19
7.06%
MLR
Miller Industries
44.92
2.14
4.99%
MPAA
Motorcar Parts Of America
11.14
1.12
11.18%
SMP
Standard Motor Products
36.39
11.46
45.98%
STRT
Strattec Security
79.14
38.01
92.41%
GTX
Garrett Motion
18.34
9.99
119.67%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.