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Holley
(NYSE:HLLY)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$3.00
▲(14.94% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/05/26
The score is driven primarily by mixed financial quality: solid operating margins and improving free cash flow are counterbalanced by meaningful leverage and a history of earnings volatility. Technicals add modest support (price above key short-term averages with positive MACD), while valuation appears reasonable at ~13.5x earnings. The latest earnings call was a net positive due to reaffirmed guidance, strong cash flow, and deleveraging progress, tempered by tariff-related margin pressure and non-recurring cost headwinds.
Positive Factors
Operating profitability
Sustained gross margins near 40% and healthy EBIT/EBITDA margins point to durable product-level pricing power and efficient manufacturing for performance parts. That margin structure supports reinvestment, cash flow generation, and resilience through normal demand cycles in the enthusiast aftermarket.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Material leverage relative to equity limits strategic flexibility and raises refinancing and interest-rate risk for a cyclical auto-parts business. High leverage can force prioritization of debt service over growth investments and heightens sensitivity to revenue or margin shocks over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Operating profitability
Sustained gross margins near 40% and healthy EBIT/EBITDA margins point to durable product-level pricing power and efficient manufacturing for performance parts. That margin structure supports reinvestment, cash flow generation, and resilience through normal demand cycles in the enthusiast aftermarket.
Read all positive factors
Holley (HLLY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$378.44M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)760.61K
Price to Earnings (P/E)36.4
Beta (1Y)1.49
Revenue Growth3.26%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees1,407
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryAuto - Parts
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.08
Shares Outstanding120,140,396
10 Day Avg. Volume461,828
30 Day Avg. Volume760,606
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.14
Price to Book (P/B)1.10
Price to Sales (P/S)0.80
P/FCF Ratio36.02
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$4.88Price Target Upside86.78% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)0.32
Revenue Forecast (FY)$624.02M
Holley Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Holley Inc. is a leading provider of automotive aftermarket products, catering to car and truck enthusiasts across the United States, Canada, Europe, and China. Its extensive product portfolio encompasses a wide array of performance-enhancing comp...
How the Company Makes Money
Holley makes money primarily by selling branded automotive aftermarket parts and related accessories. Its core revenue stream is product sales across multiple performance categories (e.g., fuel and EFI systems, engine management electronics and tu...
Holley Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized multiple encouraging operational and financial developments: a return to net sales growth, strong double-digit core expansion across three divisions, a meaningful increase in adjusted net income, robust free cash flow and tangible deleveraging, progress on portfolio simplification, and early benefits from a marketing transformation and product innovation pipeline. Notable negatives include gross margin and adjusted EBITDA compression driven largely by tariff-related costs and a prior-year accounting benefit not repeating, a GAAP net loss tied to divestiture activity, higher SG&A from legal and integration items, and lingering macro/tariff risks. On balance, the positive operational momentum, cash generation, and strategic progress appear to outweigh the transitory and one-time challenges discussed on the call.Positive Updates
Return to Net Sales Growth
Net sales increased 3.2% year-over-year to $172.0M (from $166.7M prior year). Core business net sales (adjusting for divestitures) grew 4.9%, with core growth across 27 brands and both direct-to-consumer and B2B channels.
Negative Updates
Gross Margin and Adjusted EBITDA Compression
Gross margin declined 72 basis points year-over-year to 41.0%. Adjusted EBITDA margin fell to 19.6%, a 223 basis point decline versus 21.9% in the prior year; adjusted EBITDA dollars were $33.8M versus $36.4M prior year. Management cites higher tariff-related costs and fixed cost deleverage as primary drivers.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Return to Net Sales Growth
Net sales increased 3.2% year-over-year to $172.0M (from $166.7M prior year). Core business net sales (adjusting for divestitures) grew 4.9%, with core growth across 27 brands and both direct-to-consumer and B2B channels.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Holley reaffirmed its full-year 2026 guidance and long‑term targets, calling for stable organic top‑line growth of at least 6%, ~40% gross margins and >20% adjusted EBITDA margins, and said it remains on track to end 2026 with leverage below 3.5x (Q2 leverage was 3.74x) while holding $69M of cash; Q2 results included $172M net sales (+3.2% YoY; core sales +4.9%), $40.9M free cash flow, $24M adjusted net income (vs $10.6M prior year) and 19.6% adjusted EBITDA (down 223 bps but roughly flat when adjusting for a prior‑year tariff capitalization benefit). Management expects operational cost savings at or above the $5–7M range this year, has delivered >$10M of inventory reduction YTD, saw strategic initiatives add $13.4M of revenue and $8.3M of cost savings (including $5M purchasing/tariff and $3.3M operational savings), secured approximately $12M of new national retailer placements for Q3, and reiterated a balanced capital allocation approach (voluntary debt prepayments of $115M since Sept‑2023 plus $15M post‑quarter, and opportunistic ~$2M share repurchases).Holley Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
48
Neutral
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 613.15M | 613.51M | 602.22M | 659.70M | 688.41M | 692.85M |
| Gross Profit | 257.00M | 252.46M | 246.74M | 256.09M | 253.66M | 286.81M |
| EBITDA | 85.15M | 103.95M | 106.70M | 121.54M | 148.95M | 152.47M |
| Net Income | 10.32M | 19.18M | -23.23M | 19.18M | 73.77M | -27.14M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.16B | 1.16B | 1.13B | 1.20B | 1.25B | 1.19B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 69.02M | 37.23M | 56.09M | 41.08M | 26.15M | 36.33M |
| Total Debt | 533.34M | 528.49M | 557.91M | 589.12M | 680.67M | 645.55M |
| Total Liabilities | 712.63M | 715.03M | 712.17M | 762.19M | 833.65M | 888.57M |
| Stockholders Equity | 449.74M | 448.93M | 421.15M | 441.15M | 415.99M | 304.49M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 36.54M | 13.67M | 40.09M | 82.16M | -1.28M | 6.35M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 57.84M | 46.22M | 46.90M | 88.09M | 12.31M | 21.58M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -17.36M | -32.23M | 2.02M | -4.45M | -25.04M | -134.09M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -34.28M | -32.61M | -34.60M | -69.01M | 2.85M | 77.16M |
Holley Technical Analysis
Positive
2.61
Price Trends
2.63
Positive
2.80
Positive
3.34
Negative
Market Momentum
0.14
Negative
67.48
Neutral
84.49
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HLLY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.61 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.78, below the 50-day MA of 2.63, and below the 200-day MA of 3.34, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.14 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.48 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.49 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for HLLY.
Holley Risk Analysis
Holley disclosed 58 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Holley reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Holley Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
72 Outperform | $348.60M | 13.57 | 10.75% | ― | 4.22% | 23.13% | |
71 Outperform | $605.98M | 43.33 | 3.41% | 1.60% | -20.95% | -66.17% | |
70 Outperform | $885.35M | 17.38 | 7.36% | 3.31% | 11.32% | 27.67% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
61 Neutral | $5.41B | 15.51 | -46.50% | 0.95% | 8.47% | 29.11% | |
60 Neutral | $378.44M | 36.37 | 2.30% | ― | 3.26% | ― | |
51 Neutral | $235.15M | -56.87 | -1.57% | ― | -0.82% | -353.36% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
HLLY
Holley
3.12
-0.27
-7.96%
MLR
Miller Industries
54.59
13.30
32.20%
MPAA
Motorcar Parts Of America
12.45
-2.07
-14.26%
SMP
Standard Motor Products
39.79
2.37
6.34%
STRT
Strattec Security
83.47
4.02
5.06%
GTX
Garrett Motion
29.12
16.76
135.56%
Holley Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Holley Advances Deleveraging With New Debt Prepayment
Positive
Jul 15, 2026
On July 14, 2026, Holley Performance Brands announced it made a voluntary $15 million prepayment on its first lien term loan facility, funded entirely from free cash flow. This latest action brought its total debt repayments since September 2023 t...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Holley Board Authorizes $25 Million Share Repurchase Program
Positive
May 26, 2026
On May 26, 2026, Holley Inc. announced that its Board of Directors approved a share repurchase program authorizing up to $25 million in buybacks of the company’s common stock, with purchases allowed on the open market or via private transact...
Business Operations and StrategyShareholder Meetings
Holley shareholders approve proposals at 2026 annual meeting
Positive
May 6, 2026
On May 1, 2026, Holley Inc. held its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, at which shareholders elected directors to serve until the 2029 annual meeting and ratified the appointment of Grant Thornton LLP as the company’s independent auditor ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.