Alto Neuroscience, Inc. (ANRO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $522.23M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.30M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 2.16
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: -7.87%
• Country: US
• Employees: 76
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -0.52
• Shares Outstanding: 31,066,336
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 557,199
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,303,174
• PEG Ratio: -0.02
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.69
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -2.10
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.70
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: -604.88
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -6.16
• 1Y Price Target: $35.67
• Price Target Upside: 132.68% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 56 Neutral
• Price Target: $19.00 ▲(23.94% Upside)

The score is held down primarily by weak fundamentals typical of a pre-commercial biotech—no meaningful revenue, expanding losses, and significant cash burn—creating ongoing financing risk. This is partly offset by strong technical momentum (price above major moving averages with positive MACD) and a supportive corporate event (a $50M raise to fund clinical progress). Valuation remains constrained by losses and the absence of a dividend.

Positive Factors

Pipeline Development

The acceleration of ALTO-207 development, supported by a $50M private placement, indicates strong pipeline progress, potentially leading to significant market opportunities in the treatment of depression.

Regulatory Progress

The fast track designation for ALTO-101 enhances the company's ability to expedite the development and review process, potentially bringing innovative treatments to market faster and improving competitive positioning.

Innovative Biomarker Strategy

Utilizing innovative biomarkers like theta ITC for CIAS offers a differentiated approach in clinical trials, potentially improving treatment efficacy and patient outcomes, enhancing long-term competitive advantage.

Negative Factors

Cash Burn

The high cash burn rate reflects significant operational expenses without revenue offset, posing a risk to financial sustainability and increasing dependency on external funding.

Rising Debt Levels

Increasing debt levels can strain financial resources, limiting flexibility and potentially impacting the company's ability to invest in long-term growth initiatives.

Widening Losses

Widening losses indicate a rising cost base without revenue generation, highlighting financial instability and the challenge of achieving profitability in the near term.

Alto Neuroscience, Inc. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Alto Neuroscience, Inc. operates as a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company that engages in the psychiatry drug development business. The company develops ALTO-100 for the treatment of patients with major depressive disorder (MDD) and post-traumatic stress disorder; ALTO-300, a small molecule melatonergic agonist and serotonergic antagonist with antidepressant properties to treat patients with MDD; and ALTO-101, a novel small molecule phosphodiesterase 4 inhibitor for the treatment of cognitive impairment associated with schizophrenia. It also develops ALTO-203, a novel small-molecule histamine H3 receptor inverse agonist to treat patients with MDD and higher levels of anhedonia, and ALTO-202, an investigational orally bioavailable antagonist of the GluN2B subunit of the NMDA receptor for the treatment of MDD. In addition, the company develops novel pharmacodynamically synergistic combinations and an AI-enabled biomarker platform that combine sources of information on patients brain activity and behavior to identify patients to respond to novel product candidates. Alto Neuroscience, Inc. was incorporated in 2019 and is based in Los Altos, California.

How the Company Makes Money

Alto Neuroscience, Inc. generates revenue through the development and commercialization of its precision medicine treatments for mental health disorders. The company's revenue model primarily involves partnerships with pharmaceutical companies and healthcare providers to co-develop and distribute its personalized treatment solutions. Additionally, Alto may leverage licensing agreements for its proprietary technology and biomarker discoveries, facilitating further revenue through royalties and milestone payments. Strategic collaborations with research institutions and involvement in clinical trials also contribute to its financial growth.

Alto Neuroscience, Inc. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Early-stage profile with minimal/zero revenue, widening losses (TTM net loss ~-$62.3M), and intensified cash burn (TTM operating/free cash flow about -$53M). Offsetting factor is low leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.03) and still-positive equity, but rising debt and declining equity increase funding risk.

Income Statement

ANRO is still in a pre-commercial phase with minimal to zero revenue across recent periods (including TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months)). Losses have widened materially over time (net loss roughly -$9.2M in 2021 to about -$62.3M in TTM), indicating a rising cost base without offsetting product revenue. Gross profit is negative in recent periods, and profitability remains deeply negative, which is typical for early-stage biotech but still a clear near-term earnings weakness.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows meaningful equity support in the most recent periods (stockholders’ equity ~$111.6M in TTM vs. ~$151.5M in 2024), and leverage is currently low (debt-to-equity ~0.03 in TTM). However, total debt has increased (about $16.9M in 2024 to ~$27.5M in TTM) while equity has declined, and returns on equity remain sharply negative due to ongoing losses—highlighting dependence on external funding and continued burn.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is weak with consistently negative operating cash flow and free cash flow, and the cash burn has intensified in TTM (operating cash flow about -$53.3M; free cash flow about -$53.8M). Free cash flow has deteriorated versus the prior period (negative growth), reinforcing that spending is running ahead of the current operating scale. Cash flow tracking is broadly consistent with the net loss profile, but the magnitude of burn is a key risk if capital markets tighten.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	210.00K
Gross Profit	-605.00K	-502.00K	-373.00K	-342.00K	65.00K
EBITDA	-59.42M	-68.61M	-34.56M	-27.37M	-9.04M
Net Income	-62.26M	-61.43M	-36.30M	-27.71M	-9.19M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	147.01M	177.54M	86.63M	50.85M	28.79M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	137.82M	168.23M	82.55M	48.34M	25.70M
Total Debt	27.52M	16.94M	9.99M	82.11M	38.16M
Total Liabilities	35.45M	26.08M	158.30M	89.26M	41.27M
Stockholders Equity	111.56M	151.46M	-71.67M	-38.41M	-12.48M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-53.80M	-49.50M	-33.92M	-21.13M	-9.94M
Operating Cash Flow	-53.27M	-47.42M	-33.45M	-20.39M	-9.26M
Investing Cash Flow	-530.00K	-2.08M	-470.00K	-732.00K	-680.00K
Financing Cash Flow	9.94M	135.69M	68.13M	43.79M	31.69M

Alto Neuroscience, Inc. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 15.33
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ANRO, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 15.33 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.72, below the 50-day MA of 15.95, and above the 200-day MA of 7.24, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.30 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.20 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for ANRO.

Alto Neuroscience, Inc. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FBRX	57 Neutral	$445.08M	-6.72	-110.72%	―	―	77.08%
ANRO	56 Neutral	$522.23M	-6.66	-45.01%	―	―	-7.87%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
CRBP	49 Neutral	$166.75M	-1.58	-55.65%	―	―	-17.43%
MIST	49 Neutral	$171.19M	-2.25	-260.65%	―	―	3.70%
ELTX	43 Neutral	$147.79M	-2.41	―	―	―	17.36%
SAVA	42 Neutral	$102.41M	―	-85.44%	―	―	-505.96%