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Cassava Sciences (SAVA)
NASDAQ:SAVA

Cassava Sciences (SAVA) AI Stock Analysis

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SAVA

Cassava Sciences

(NASDAQ:SAVA)

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Neutral 42 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:42Neutral
Price Target:
$2.00
▼(-5.66% Downside)
The score is driven down primarily by weak financial performance (no revenue, sizable losses, and continued cash burn) and bearish technical trends (below major moving averages with negative MACD). Valuation also offers limited support due to a negative P/E and no dividend.
Positive Factors
Strategic Partnership
The exclusive license with Yale University for Simufilam in treating TSC-related epilepsy expands Cassava's therapeutic applications, potentially enhancing its market position in rare neurodevelopmental disorders.
Product Development
The new program targeting TSC-related epilepsy shows Cassava's commitment to addressing unmet medical needs, which could lead to future revenue streams and strengthen its product pipeline.
Leadership Changes
Leadership changes, including the appointment of Jack Moore, align with Cassava's strategic shift to bolster clinical development, potentially accelerating the advancement of Simufilam in new indications.
Negative Factors
Financial Challenges
Persistent financial challenges with no revenue and operational losses highlight sustainability risks, impacting Cassava's ability to fund ongoing R&D and delaying potential profitability.
Cash Flow Issues
Negative cash flow from operations underscores poor cash generation, increasing reliance on external financing and posing risks to long-term operational sustainability.
Profitability Concerns
Ongoing profitability issues due to lack of revenue and negative net income indicate significant operational challenges, limiting Cassava's ability to achieve financial stability in the near term.

Cassava Sciences (SAVA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Cassava Sciences Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCassava Sciences, Inc., a clinical stage biotechnology company, develops drugs for neurodegenerative diseases. Its lead therapeutic product candidate is simufilam, a small molecule drug, which is completed Phase 2b clinical trial; and investigational diagnostic product candidate is SavaDx, a blood-based biomarker/diagnostic to detect Alzheimer's disease. The company was formerly known as Pain Therapeutics, Inc. and changed its name to Cassava Sciences, Inc. in March 2019. Cassava Sciences, Inc. was incorporated in 1998 and is based in Austin, Texas.
How the Company Makes MoneyCassava Sciences primarily generates revenue through funding received from government grants and collaborations. As a clinical-stage company, it does not currently derive revenue from product sales, but its financial model anticipates future income from successful commercialization of its therapeutic and diagnostic candidates. The company's earnings potential is significantly influenced by its ability to advance its products through clinical trials, secure regulatory approvals, and establish partnerships for commercialization. Until then, Cassava Sciences relies on investments and grants to fund its research and development activities.

Cassava Sciences Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 07, 2024
(Q3-2024)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mix of promising progress in clinical trials and financial stability, but also highlighted increased administrative costs and legal challenges. The anticipation of Phase III trial results is a critical point of focus.
Q3-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Phase III Trial Progress
Announced the last patient visit for the Phase III trial RETHINK-ALZ, with top-line results expected by the end of the year.
Cash Position and Financial Stability
Ended Q3 with $149 million in cash, expected to fund operations through the conclusion of ongoing Phase III trials and into 2026.
Reduced R&D Expenses
R&D expenses for Q3 were $17.7 million, down from $23.6 million in the same period last year as more patients transition from Phase III to lower-cost open-label studies.
Biomarker Innovation
Discussed the potential of plasma biomarker tests with high correlation to Alzheimer's diagnosis, which could transform treatment by primary care physicians.
Negative Updates
Increased General and Administrative Expenses
G&A expenses increased to $12.9 million from $4.3 million in Q3 2023, mainly due to higher legal expenses and increased compensation costs.
Settlement with SEC
A $40 million penalty settlement with the SEC, pending court approval, indicating legal challenges.
Potential Trial Challenges
Concerns about trial success if only mild Alzheimer's patients show significant improvement, raising questions about FDA approval if moderate patients underperform.
Company Guidance
During Cassava Sciences' Q3 2024 earnings call, CEO Richard Barry provided guidance on the company's upcoming milestones and financial outlook. He emphasized the anticipated release of top-line results from the Phase III RETHINK-ALZ trial before the end of the year, highlighting the potential for a best-in-class treatment for Alzheimer's disease. The company plans to report biomarker data for approximately 100 patients, focusing on plasma markers such as pTau 217, Neurofilament Light Chain (NFL), Glial Fibrillary Acidic Protein (GFAP), and total tau. Financially, Cassava Sciences ended the quarter with $149 million in cash, which is expected to be sufficient for operations through the conclusion of ongoing Phase III trials and into 2026. Net cash used in operations for the first nine months of 2024 was $55.7 million, with projections for the second half ranging between $80 million and $90 million, inclusive of a $40 million SEC settlement. The company's net loss for Q3 was $27.9 million, with R&D expenses decreasing as more patients transition to a lower-cost open-label study.

Cassava Sciences Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Cassava Sciences exhibits persistent financial challenges with no revenue generation and increasing operational losses. While the balance sheet is strong due to the lack of debt, the negative cash flow trends underscore significant operational sustainability risks.
Income Statement
14
Very Negative
Cassava Sciences shows a consistent lack of revenue generation across multiple years, with negative net income, indicating ongoing operational challenges. The absence of gross profit and declining EBIT and EBITDA margins highlight significant profitability issues.
Balance Sheet
46
Neutral
The company maintains a strong equity position with a high equity ratio and no reported debt, reducing financial risk. However, the consistent net losses and reliance on equity financing reflect potential sustainability concerns.
Cash Flow
18
Very Negative
Negative free cash flow and operating cash flow indicate poor cash generation from core operations, worsened by an increasing reliance on financing activities. The free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, further emphasizing cash flow challenges.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue0.000.000.000.000.000.00
Gross Profit-39.51M0.00-89.42M-68.03M0.00-3.05M
EBITDA-65.17M-141.15M-104.43M-78.72M-32.33M-6.77M
Net Income-106.03M-24.34M-97.22M-76.25M-32.38M-6.33M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets129.73M157.53M151.66M234.83M266.78M94.30M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments106.08M128.57M121.14M201.01M233.44M93.51M
Total Debt0.000.000.00139.00K236.00K293.00K
Total Liabilities48.16M11.83M14.20M7.29M12.87M2.10M
Stockholders Equity81.57M145.70M137.47M227.54M253.91M92.20M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-83.91M-117.03M-82.44M-80.23M-52.41M-5.38M
Operating Cash Flow-83.77M-116.93M-82.03M-77.51M-30.20M-5.38M
Investing Cash Flow-137.00K-103.00K-414.00K-2.71M-22.21M360.00K
Financing Cash Flow1.01M124.47M2.56M47.80M192.34M75.45M

Cassava Sciences Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price2.12
Price Trends
50DMA
2.71
Negative
100DMA
2.89
Negative
200DMA
2.41
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.21
Negative
RSI
40.12
Neutral
STOCH
45.62
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SAVA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.12 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.25, below the 50-day MA of 2.71, and below the 200-day MA of 2.41, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.21 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 40.12 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 45.62 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SAVA.

Cassava Sciences Risk Analysis

Cassava Sciences disclosed 52 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Cassava Sciences reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Cassava Sciences Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
58
Neutral
$307.14M-2.36-172.70%5.51%
51
Neutral
$7.86B-0.30-43.30%2.27%22.53%-2.21%
50
Neutral
$145.47M25.0015.95%448.44%
49
Neutral
$110.48M-9.56-62.16%11.78%
44
Neutral
$125.35M-2.91-109.73%50.39%
42
Neutral
$103.86M-0.97-85.44%-505.96%
42
Neutral
$160.78M-2.37-114.26%-17.87%14.42%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
SAVA
Cassava Sciences
2.13
-0.56
-20.82%
CDXS
Codexis
1.78
-3.14
-63.82%
MCRB
Seres Therapeutics
15.18
0.48
3.27%
ANIX
Anixa Biosciences
3.22
0.64
24.81%
CGTX
Cognition Therapeutics
1.38
0.69
100.00%
CAMP
CAMP4 Therapeutics Corporation
5.78
1.33
29.89%

Cassava Sciences Corporate Events

Financial DisclosuresLegal Proceedings
Cassava Sciences Reaches Settlement in Securities Class Action
Negative
Dec 23, 2025

Between August 27 and October 26, 2021, four putative federal securities class actions were filed against Cassava Sciences and certain officers in the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Texas, later consolidated on June 30, 2022 into a single case covering purchasers and sellers of the company’s common stock and options from September 14, 2020 to October 12, 2023. On December 19, 2025, following mediation, Cassava and its CFO Eric J. Schoen agreed via a binding term sheet to pay $31.25 million into escrow, expected in January 2026, to fully settle all claims in the consolidated action in exchange for complete releases for the company and the individually named officers, with the company having already reserved the full settlement amount as a loss contingency in the second quarter of 2025 and seeking court approval for the settlement, which does not constitute an admission of wrongdoing.

The most recent analyst rating on (SAVA) stock is a Buy with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cassava Sciences stock, see the SAVA Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyLegal ProceedingsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
FDA Places Clinical Hold on Cassava’s Epilepsy Trial
Negative
Dec 18, 2025

On December 15, 2025, Cassava Sciences received a formal letter from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration placing a full clinical hold on its proposed proof-of-concept trial of simufilam in tuberous sclerosis complex-related epilepsy, pending additional information such as more pre-clinical data and protocol design changes. As a result, the company no longer expects to start the TSC-related epilepsy trial in the first half of 2026, and future timing will depend on how quickly it can satisfy the FDA’s requests and the completion of the agency’s review, potentially slowing its expansion into this indication and affecting development timelines for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (SAVA) stock is a Buy with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cassava Sciences stock, see the SAVA Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Cassava Sciences Approves Executive Cash Bonuses for 2025
Positive
Dec 17, 2025

On December 12, 2025, Cassava Sciences‘ Board of Directors approved cash bonus awards for its executives in recognition of their significant contributions in 2025. The company achieved progress on performance measures, including exploring the use of its drug simufilam in Tuberous Sclerosis Complex-related epilepsy, building a specialized team, and managing budgets effectively to support these objectives.

The most recent analyst rating on (SAVA) stock is a Buy with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cassava Sciences stock, see the SAVA Stock Forecast page.

Product-Related AnnouncementsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Cassava Sciences Submits IND Application for Simufilam
Neutral
Dec 3, 2025

Cassava Sciences has submitted an IND application to the FDA for a clinical trial of simufilam targeting TSC-related epilepsy. The FDA has requested additional information to assess risks and support the study, and Cassava plans to address these issues and initiate the trial in the first half of 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (SAVA) stock is a Buy with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cassava Sciences stock, see the SAVA Stock Forecast page.

Legal Proceedings
Cassava Sciences’ Legal Victory Clears Research Path
Positive
Oct 24, 2025

On October 23, 2025, the United States District Court for the District of Maryland dismissed the criminal indictment against Dr. Hoau-Yan Wang, a former scientific collaborator with Cassava Sciences. The charges, which included allegations of falsifying research for grant applications, were permanently terminated, allowing Cassava to continue its research efforts without the shadow of legal proceedings, thereby reinforcing its commitment to scientific integrity.

The most recent analyst rating on (SAVA) stock is a Buy with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cassava Sciences stock, see the SAVA Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Cassava Sciences Appoints Dawn C. Bir to Board
Positive
Oct 22, 2025

On October 22, 2025, Cassava Sciences announced the appointment of Dawn C. Bir to its Board of Directors. Ms. Bir, a seasoned biopharmaceutical executive, brings a wealth of experience in leading biotech companies through critical inflection points. Her appointment comes as Cassava prepares to initiate its first clinical study for simufilam in TSC-related epilepsy in the first half of 2026. The company anticipates that her expertise in building shareholder value and forging influential relationships with market stakeholders will be invaluable as they advance their TSC-related epilepsy program.

The most recent analyst rating on (SAVA) stock is a Buy with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Cassava Sciences stock, see the SAVA Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 30, 2025