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Ameresco, Inc. (AMRC)
:AMRC
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Ameresco (AMRC) AI Stock Analysis

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AMRC

Ameresco

(NYSE:AMRC)

Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$20.00
▲(6.50%Upside)
Ameresco's strong technical momentum and solid financial performance are key strengths, bolstered by significant project backlog growth and international expansion. However, high leverage and the absence of a dividend yield, coupled with margin pressures, temper the overall score. The stock's valuation is reasonable, but careful management of leverage and margins is essential for long-term sustainability.
Positive Factors
Operational Preparedness
Much of the equipment for carrying ongoing projects and energy assets in development has already been purchased and is in the country or already on the worksites, which shields the company from near-term price increases.
Project Resumption
The project that had been canceled has now been rescoped and the other 2 contracts have now been unpaused.
Revenue Growth
Ameresco reported 4Q24 sales that exceeded expectations, driven by growth across all business lines, especially Projects and Energy Assets.
Negative Factors
Government Contracts
AMRC reported a cautious 4Q, with government contracts canceled or delayed despite only a few months under the new administration.
Guidance and Performance
'25 guidance was well below expectations while the last SCE project has yet to be completed.
Project Cancellations
Concerns on the Project biz seem to have been validated after mgmt. announced a cancellation on one project and a 'pause' on two other contracts.

Ameresco (AMRC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Ameresco Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAmeresco, Inc., a clean technology integrator, provides a portfolio of energy efficiency and renewable energy supply solutions in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It offers energy efficiency, infrastructure upgrades, energy security and resilience, asset sustainability, and renewable energy solutions for businesses and organizations. The company operates through U.S. Regions, U.S. Federal, Canada, and Non-Solar Distributed Generation segments. It designs, develops, engineers, and installs projects that reduce the energy, as well as operations and maintenance (O&M) costs of its customers' facilities. The company's projects primarily include various measures customized for the facility and designed to enhance the efficiency of building systems, such as heating, ventilation, cooling, and lighting systems. It also offers renewable energy solutions and services, such as the construction of small-scale plants that the company owns or develops for customers that produce electricity, gas, heat, or cooling from renewable sources of energy and O&M services; and electricity, processed renewable gas fuel, and heat or cooling produced from renewable sources of energy. In addition, the company sells photovoltaic (PV) solar energy products and systems, as well as provides consulting and enterprise energy management services; and owns and operates a wind power project located in Ireland. It serves the federal, state, and local governments, as well as healthcare and educational institutions, airports, public housing authorities and public universities, and commercial and industrial customers. As of December 31, 2021, the company owned and operated 147 small-scale renewable energy plants and solar PV installations. Ameresco, Inc. was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Framingham, Massachusetts.
How the Company Makes MoneyAmeresco makes money primarily through the design, construction, and installation of energy efficiency and renewable energy projects. The company's revenue streams include energy savings performance contracts (ESPCs), where it finances and implements energy-saving projects and is paid through the savings generated over time. Additionally, Ameresco generates income from the sale of renewable energy credits (RECs), operations and maintenance services for energy assets, and the development and sale of renewable energy projects. Significant partnerships with government entities and private sector organizations play a crucial role in its earnings by providing a steady pipeline of projects and opportunities for long-term service agreements.

Ameresco Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any
Any
Revenue by Geography
Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where the company is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.
Chart InsightsAmeresco's revenue growth in Europe and Canada is notable, aligning with the company's strategic expansion in international markets. The latest earnings call highlights significant growth in these regions, contributing to a diversified business model. Despite a net income loss and gross margin pressure, the strong project backlog and recovery of federal contracts bolster future revenue visibility. The company's focus on expanding its energy asset business and maintaining a robust project pipeline suggests continued growth potential, especially in Europe, where large EPC contracts are driving revenue despite lower margins.
Data provided by:Main Street Data

Ameresco Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 05, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 61.48%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 04, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a strong financial performance with significant growth in revenue, EBITDA, and backlog. The recovery of federal contracts and expansion in international markets were notable positives. However, the net income loss, impact of divestiture, and gross margin pressure were areas of concern.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Financial Performance
First quarter revenue and adjusted EBITDA grew by 18% and 32%, respectively, surpassing expectations. Project business revenue grew 23%, and energy asset revenue increased by 31%.
Significant Growth in Backlog
Total project backlog increased by 22% to $4.9 billion, with contracted project backlog up 80% to $2.6 billion. The total revenue visibility across businesses reached almost $10 billion.
Federal Contract Recovery
The previously canceled federal project has been rescoped, and two paused contracts have resumed. No additional cancellations or delays have been encountered in federal contracts.
Expansion in International Markets
Strong performance in Europe and Canada, contributing to the diversity of customers and solutions offered.
Negative Updates
Net Income Loss
Net income attributable to common shareholders was a loss of $5.5 million or $0.10 per share.
Impact of Divestiture
Revenue decline in the other line of business attributed to the divestiture of the AEG business at the end of 2024.
Gross Margin Pressure
Gross margin of 14.7% was lower than expected due to a greater mix of large European EPC contracts with a lower gross margin profile.
Company Guidance
During the Ameresco, Inc. First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company reported strong financial performance, with first-quarter revenue and adjusted EBITDA growing by 18% and 32%, respectively. The company highlighted its diversified business model, noting significant growth in both projects and energy asset businesses, especially in Europe and Canada. The contracted project backlog grew by 80% year-over-year to $2.6 billion, contributing to a total project backlog of nearly $5 billion and total revenue visibility approaching $10 billion. Ameresco's federal contracts, accounting for about 30% of the backlog, faced no new cancellations or delays. The company maintained its guidance for 2025, with expected total revenue and adjusted EBITDA at $1.9 billion and $235 million, respectively. Despite facing industry challenges, Ameresco expressed confidence in its strategic approach and continued growth across core markets, emphasizing strong execution and a diversified portfolio.

Ameresco Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Ameresco demonstrates stable revenue growth and operational efficiency, with positive cash flow improvements. However, the high debt-to-equity ratio presents a leverage risk, and net profit margins indicate room for cost management improvement.
Income Statement
70
Positive
Ameresco's TTM revenue growth rate indicates a positive trend, with a moderate increase from the previous year. The gross profit margin stands at 14.3%, reflecting reasonable pricing power, but the net profit margin is lower at 2.8%, suggesting room for improvement in cost management. EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy, which points to operational effectiveness.
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
The company maintains a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.71, indicating significant leverage which could pose a risk if not managed carefully. However, the equity ratio is 25.1%, showing a solid equity base relative to total assets. Return on equity is moderate at 4.8%, suggesting average profitability for shareholders.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Ameresco's free cash flow has improved to a positive value in the TTM period, a significant turnaround from previous negative figures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.36 is strong, indicating good cash generation relative to income. However, historical cash flow volatility and substantial financing activities necessitate careful liquidity management.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.77B1.37B1.82B1.22B1.03B
Gross Profit256.09M246.43M290.83M230.36M187.55M
EBITDA108.75M150.39M190.78M142.05M116.67M
Net Income56.76M62.47M94.93M70.46M54.05M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets4.16B3.71B2.88B2.22B1.75B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments108.52M79.27M115.53M50.45M66.42M
Total Debt1.70B1.55B937.65M497.53M422.44M
Total Liabilities3.10B2.74B1.96B1.47B1.22B
Stockholders Equity1.01B901.98M824.03M704.26M492.81M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-320.75M-621.76M-666.19M-356.07M-285.34M
Operating Cash Flow117.60M-69.99M-338.29M-172.30M-102.58M
Investing Cash Flow-386.64M-566.94M-328.36M-205.26M-181.01M
Financing Cash Flow278.54M640.80M730.23M365.46M305.17M

Ameresco Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price18.78
Price Trends
50DMA
15.79
Positive
100DMA
13.45
Positive
200DMA
19.77
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
1.02
Negative
RSI
71.62
Negative
STOCH
73.44
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AMRC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 18.78 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.14, above the 50-day MA of 15.79, and below the 200-day MA of 19.77, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 71.62 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 73.44 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AMRC.

Ameresco Risk Analysis

Ameresco disclosed 43 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ameresco reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Ameresco Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
80
Outperform
$1.55B47.193.79%8.65%-22.72%
75
Outperform
$4.15B42.1512.75%0.55%11.42%247.33%
74
Outperform
$1.19B48.6510.78%12.40%81.98%
70
Neutral
$2.96B87.525.71%-7.33%-57.86%
67
Neutral
$987.90M18.515.64%30.13%-7.60%
65
Neutral
$11.06B15.735.16%1.93%3.12%-25.59%
63
Neutral
$2.59B-12.28%8.95%-41.32%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AMRC
Ameresco
18.78
-13.53
-41.88%
GVA
Granite Construction
94.87
28.90
43.81%
MYRG
MYR Group
195.34
52.19
36.46%
TPC
Tutor Perini
48.29
23.31
93.31%
WLDN
Willdan Group
82.14
48.32
142.87%
NVEE
NV5 Holdings
23.28
-2.41
-9.38%

Ameresco Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder MeetingsRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Ameresco Elects New Directors at Annual Meeting
Neutral
Jun 10, 2025

On June 4, 2025, Ameresco held its Annual Meeting where stockholders elected Jennifer Miller and Nickolas Stavropoulos as class III directors until 2028, ratified the appointment of RSM US LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025, and approved an amendment to the Company’s Restated Certificate of Incorporation to align with new Delaware law provisions on officer exculpation. These decisions reflect the company’s ongoing governance and compliance efforts, potentially impacting its operational transparency and accountability.

The most recent analyst rating on (AMRC) stock is a Buy with a $35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ameresco stock, see the AMRC Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 15, 2025