Ameresco (AMRC)
NYSE:AMRC
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Ameresco
(NYSE:AMRC)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$33.00
▲(27.56% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:05/04/26
The score is held back primarily by weak cash-flow quality and higher leverage despite solid revenue growth. Technicals are supportive with a strong uptrend, while valuation is demanding at a ~34.8 P/E. The latest call was net positive on backlog and liquidity (Neogenix JV) but flagged near-term volatility and capital intensity.
Positive Factors
Backlog and Project Pipeline Strength
A large, growing backlog provides multi-quarter to multi-year revenue visibility and supports durable growth. With $5.3B total backlog and $2.8B awarded, Ameresco can smooth project cadence, allocate resources, and convert contracted work into recurring project and asset revenue over time.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage and Rising Debt
Substantially higher leverage reduces financial flexibility and raises interest and covenant risk. Heavy debt limits the company’s ability to self-fund capex or withstand revenue volatility, making it more dependent on external financing or asset monetization over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Backlog and Project Pipeline Strength
A large, growing backlog provides multi-quarter to multi-year revenue visibility and supports durable growth. With $5.3B total backlog and $2.8B awarded, Ameresco can smooth project cadence, allocate resources, and convert contracted work into recurring project and asset revenue over time.
Read all positive factors
Ameresco (AMRC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.66B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)551.04K
Price to Earnings (P/E)34.8
Beta (1Y)1.41
Revenue Growth9.16%
EPS Growth-22.45%
CountryUS
Employees1,500
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryEngineering & Construction
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.84
Shares Outstanding34,939,420
10 Day Avg. Volume535,854
30 Day Avg. Volume551,042
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.57
Price to Book (P/B)1.43
Price to Sales (P/S)0.80
P/FCF Ratio-3.54
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.17
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.87
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit11.87
Enterprise Value/Ebitda15.21
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$41.50Price Target Upside60.42% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)1.19
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.09B
Ameresco Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ameresco, Inc., a clean technology integrator, provides a portfolio of energy efficiency and renewable energy supply solutions in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It offers energy efficiency, infrastructure upgrades, energy security...
How the Company Makes Money
Ameresco makes money primarily by (1) delivering and managing energy savings performance contracts (ESPCs) and other energy efficiency/energy infrastructure projects, (2) owning and operating certain renewable energy assets and selling the resulti...
Ameresco Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Highlights revenue from different business units, indicating which areas drive growth and profitability, and where strategic shifts might be needed.
Highlights revenue from different business units, indicating which areas drive growth and profitability, and where strategic shifts might be needed.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAmeresco Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 04, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a majority of positive operational and strategic developments: double-digit revenue growth (14%), strong backlog expansion (awarded backlog +20% to $2.8B and total backlog $5.3B), robust O&M growth (+22%), and a transformational $400M JV with HASI creating Neogenix Fuels that unlocks liquidity ($100M to Ameresco) and growth capital ($300M). Near-term challenges include weather-related operational disruptions, a GAAP net loss ($18.3M) and increased operating costs driven by investment spending, plus accounting/reporting complexity from the JV consolidation. Overall, the upbeat growth metrics, liquidity improvement, and strategic JV outweigh the quarter-specific headwinds and near-term expenses.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Total revenue grew 14% year-over-year (Q1 2026 vs. prior year), representing a solid start to 2026 despite adverse weather impacts.
Negative Updates
Weather-Related Operational Disruptions
Adverse weather negatively impacted several RNG facilities (freeze-ups at three RNG plants) and some solar construction activity, weighing on performance and gross margin for the quarter.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth
Total revenue grew 14% year-over-year (Q1 2026 vs. prior year), representing a solid start to 2026 despite adverse weather impacts.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Ameresco said its full‑year revenue guidance remains unchanged but updated reported results to reflect consolidation of Neogenix Fuels (Ameresco 70% / HASI 30%), with HASI’s 30% of biofuels adjusted EBITDA and net income shown as noncontrolling interest; Q2 adjusted EBITDA is guided to $58–62M and non‑GAAP EPS $0.18–0.23; the company expects to place ~100–120 MW of energy assets in service in 2026 (including two RNG plants), with expected CapEx of $300–350M funded by energy asset debt, HASI’s $300M investment, tax equity and tax credit sales; revenue is seasonally weighted (≈60% of 2026 revenue in H2); operating energy asset base is 838 MW with 568 MW in development/construction; awarded project backlog grew 20% to $2.8B with >$500M of new awards in Q1 and total project backlog of $5.3B, O&M backlog >$1.5B; Q1 adjusted EBITDA was $40.5M, unrestricted cash $104M, corporate debt $417M, leverage 3.2x (vs. 3.5x covenant), Q1 adjusted cash flow from operations ≈$62M and eight‑quarter rolling average ≈$57M.Ameresco Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
48
Neutral
Cash Flow
32
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.93B | 1.77B | 1.37B | 1.82B | 1.22B |
| Gross Profit | 304.01M | 256.09M | 246.43M | 290.83M | 230.36M |
| EBITDA | 229.75M | 194.80M | 150.39M | 190.63M | 141.93M |
| Net Income | 44.28M | 56.76M | 62.47M | 94.93M | 70.46M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 4.54B | 4.16B | 3.71B | 2.88B | 2.22B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 71.78M | 108.52M | 79.27M | 115.53M | 50.45M |
| Total Debt | 1.95B | 1.70B | 1.55B | 937.65M | 497.53M |
| Total Liabilities | 3.41B | 3.11B | 2.74B | 1.96B | 1.47B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.08B | 1.01B | 901.98M | 824.03M | 704.26M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -436.36M | -320.75M | -621.76M | -666.19M | -356.07M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -80.36M | 117.60M | -69.99M | -338.29M | -172.30M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -251.32M | -386.64M | -566.94M | -328.36M | -205.26M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 318.38M | 313.94M | 640.80M | 730.23M | 365.46M |
Ameresco Technical Analysis
Negative
25.87
Price Trends
28.18
Negative
29.85
Negative
29.12
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.67
Negative
47.85
Neutral
56.61
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AMRC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 25.87 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 25.89, below the 50-day MA of 28.18, and below the 200-day MA of 29.12, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.67 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.85 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.61 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AMRC.
Ameresco Risk Analysis
Ameresco disclosed 42 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ameresco reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Ameresco Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $6.75B | 23.43 | 22.13% | ― | 13.14% | 317.43% | |
73 Outperform | $6.07B | -31.29 | 17.58% | 0.45% | 14.93% | 49.81% | |
70 Outperform | $4.93B | 30.66 | 6.77% | 0.09% | 28.11% | ― | |
67 Neutral | $1.09B | 29.35 | 19.12% | ― | 20.46% | 122.26% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
59 Neutral | $1.66B | 34.84 | 4.24% | ― | 9.16% | -22.45% |
* Industrials Sector Average
AMRC
Ameresco
31.48
19.85
170.68%
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TPC
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WLDN
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72.72
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83.59%
Ameresco Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesPrivate Placements and Financing
Ameresco Forms Neogenyx Biogas Joint Venture with HASI
Positive
May 4, 2026
On May 4, 2026, Ameresco entered into an agreement with an affiliate of HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital to form Neogenyx Fuels LLC, a joint venture that will house Ameresco’s existing biogas business. Ameresco will contribute its bioga...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesPrivate Placements and Financing
Ameresco Expands Term Loan and Restructures Executive Leadership
Positive
Mar 31, 2026
On March 30, 2026, Ameresco amended its senior secured loan agreement, increasing its term loan by $45 million to $140 million while leaving a $225 million revolving credit facility in place, both maturing in December 2028. Most of the new term lo...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.