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Ameresco
(NYSE:AMRC)
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Rating:47Neutral
Price Target:
$28.00
▲(8.23% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/09/26
AMRC’s score is held back mainly by weak cash generation and higher leverage despite solid revenue growth, with technicals also bearish as the stock trades below major moving averages. The earnings call adds support through maintained guidance, expanding backlog, and improved liquidity from the Neogenix/HASI partnership, but valuation remains rich and capital intensity is still a key risk.
Positive Factors
Backlog growth
A materially larger awarded and total project backlog provides durable revenue visibility across multiple quarters and into next year. This scale supports steady project scheduling, backlog-to-revenue conversion, and provides a buffer against near-term demand swings while underpinning future growth.
Negative Factors
Negative cash flow
Persistent negative operating and free cash flow indicate the company is not self-financing growth and investments. Over months, this amplifies reliance on external financing and asset-level funding, raising refinancing risk and constraining ability to cover capex or absorb project delays without new capital.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Backlog growth
A materially larger awarded and total project backlog provides durable revenue visibility across multiple quarters and into next year. This scale supports steady project scheduling, backlog-to-revenue conversion, and provides a buffer against near-term demand swings while underpinning future growth.
Read all positive factors
Ameresco Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Highlights revenue from different business units, indicating which areas drive growth and profitability, and where strategic shifts might be needed.
Highlights revenue from different business units, indicating which areas drive growth and profitability, and where strategic shifts might be needed.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAmeresco (AMRC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.36B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)587.28K
Price to Earnings (P/E)42.7
Beta (1Y)1.51
Revenue Growth8.57%
EPS Growth-42.26%
CountryUS
Employees1,500
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryEngineering & Construction
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.59
Shares Outstanding34,951,416
10 Day Avg. Volume497,596
30 Day Avg. Volume587,283
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.57
Price to Book (P/B)1.43
Price to Sales (P/S)0.80
P/FCF Ratio-3.54
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.50
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.71
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit10.99
Enterprise Value/Ebitda14.45
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$43.00Price Target Upside66.22% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)1.12
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.11B
Ameresco Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ameresco, Inc. operates as a clean technology integrator, offering a broad spectrum of solutions focused on energy efficiency and sustainable energy generation across the United States, Canada, and global markets. The company serves diverse busine...
How the Company Makes Money
Ameresco primarily makes money through (1) project-based revenue from designing, engineering, constructing, and installing energy efficiency and clean energy systems, and (2) recurring revenue tied to operating and owning certain energy assets and...
Ameresco Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 04, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a majority of positive operational and strategic developments: double-digit revenue growth (14%), strong backlog expansion (awarded backlog +20% to $2.8B and total backlog $5.3B), robust O&M growth (+22%), and a transformational $400M JV with HASI creating Neogenix Fuels that unlocks liquidity ($100M to Ameresco) and growth capital ($300M). Near-term challenges include weather-related operational disruptions, a GAAP net loss ($18.3M) and increased operating costs driven by investment spending, plus accounting/reporting complexity from the JV consolidation. Overall, the upbeat growth metrics, liquidity improvement, and strategic JV outweigh the quarter-specific headwinds and near-term expenses.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Total revenue grew 14% year-over-year (Q1 2026 vs. prior year), representing a solid start to 2026 despite adverse weather impacts.
Negative Updates
Weather-Related Operational Disruptions
Adverse weather negatively impacted several RNG facilities (freeze-ups at three RNG plants) and some solar construction activity, weighing on performance and gross margin for the quarter.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth
Total revenue grew 14% year-over-year (Q1 2026 vs. prior year), representing a solid start to 2026 despite adverse weather impacts.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Ameresco said its full‑year revenue guidance remains unchanged but updated reported results to reflect consolidation of Neogenix Fuels (Ameresco 70% / HASI 30%), with HASI’s 30% of biofuels adjusted EBITDA and net income shown as noncontrolling interest; Q2 adjusted EBITDA is guided to $58–62M and non‑GAAP EPS $0.18–0.23; the company expects to place ~100–120 MW of energy assets in service in 2026 (including two RNG plants), with expected CapEx of $300–350M funded by energy asset debt, HASI’s $300M investment, tax equity and tax credit sales; revenue is seasonally weighted (≈60% of 2026 revenue in H2); operating energy asset base is 838 MW with 568 MW in development/construction; awarded project backlog grew 20% to $2.8B with >$500M of new awards in Q1 and total project backlog of $5.3B, O&M backlog >$1.5B; Q1 adjusted EBITDA was $40.5M, unrestricted cash $104M, corporate debt $417M, leverage 3.2x (vs. 3.5x covenant), Q1 adjusted cash flow from operations ≈$62M and eight‑quarter rolling average ≈$57M.Ameresco Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
48
Neutral
Cash Flow
27
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.98B | 1.93B | 1.77B | 1.37B | 1.82B | 1.22B |
| Gross Profit | 308.56M | 304.01M | 256.09M | 246.43M | 290.83M | 230.36M |
| EBITDA | 234.64M | 237.18M | 194.80M | 150.39M | 190.63M | 141.93M |
| Net Income | 31.48M | 44.28M | 56.76M | 62.47M | 94.93M | 70.46M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.64B | 4.54B | 4.16B | 3.71B | 2.88B | 2.22B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 103.97M | 71.78M | 108.52M | 79.27M | 115.53M | 50.45M |
| Total Debt | 2.05B | 1.95B | 1.70B | 1.55B | 937.65M | 497.53M |
| Total Liabilities | 3.53B | 3.41B | 3.11B | 2.74B | 1.96B | 1.47B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.11B | 1.08B | 1.01B | 901.98M | 824.03M | 704.26M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -250.97M | -436.36M | -320.75M | -621.76M | -666.19M | -356.07M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -16.66M | -80.36M | 117.60M | -69.99M | -338.29M | -172.30M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -233.68M | -251.32M | -386.64M | -566.94M | -328.36M | -205.26M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 336.13M | 318.38M | 313.94M | 640.80M | 730.23M | 365.46M |
Ameresco Technical Analysis
Negative
25.87
Price Trends
29.57
Negative
28.58
Negative
31.24
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.18
Positive
39.03
Neutral
24.86
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AMRC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 25.87 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 27.03, below the 50-day MA of 29.57, and below the 200-day MA of 31.24, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.18 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.03 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.86 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AMRC.
Ameresco Risk Analysis
Ameresco disclosed 43 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ameresco reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Ameresco Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $6.71B | 46.07 | 22.14% | ― | 13.14% | 317.43% | |
75 Outperform | $1.11B | 18.83 | 19.38% | ― | 14.87% | 121.85% | |
69 Neutral | $3.95B | 51.07 | 6.50% | 0.09% | 25.67% | ― | |
64 Neutral | $5.49B | 29.13 | 16.70% | 0.45% | 14.93% | 49.81% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
47 Neutral | $1.36B | 42.69 | 2.94% | ― | 8.57% | -42.26% |
* Industrials Sector Average
AMRC
Ameresco
24.94
6.98
38.86%
GVA
Granite Construction
122.46
29.12
31.19%
MYRG
MYR Group
419.34
235.68
128.32%
TPC
Tutor Perini
75.89
27.03
55.33%
WLDN
Willdan Group
72.08
-1.84
-2.49%
Ameresco Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Ameresco Shareholders Approve Expanded Equity Plan and Directors
Positive
Jun 8, 2026
At its June 4, 2026 annual meeting, Ameresco stockholders approved an amendment to the 2020 Equity Incentive Plan, increasing the pool of Class A common shares available for issuance by 3.2 million, a move that expands the company’s capacity...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Ameresco Forms Neogenyx Fuels Biofuels Joint Venture
Positive
May 12, 2026
On May 12, 2026, Ameresco announced it had closed its previously disclosed transaction with HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital, Inc. to carve out its biofuels operations into a new joint venture called Neogenyx Fuels. The vehicle, which is valu...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesPrivate Placements and Financing
Ameresco Forms Neogenyx Biogas Joint Venture with HASI
Positive
May 4, 2026
On May 4, 2026, Ameresco entered into an agreement with an affiliate of HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital to form Neogenyx Fuels LLC, a joint venture that will house Ameresco’s existing biogas business. Ameresco will contribute its bioga...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesPrivate Placements and Financing
Ameresco Expands Term Loan and Restructures Executive Leadership
Positive
Mar 31, 2026
On March 30, 2026, Ameresco amended its senior secured loan agreement, increasing its term loan by $45 million to $140 million while leaving a $225 million revolving credit facility in place, both maturing in December 2028. Most of the new term lo...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.