Ameresco (AMRC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $837.45M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 431.57K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 16.0
• Beta (1Y): 1.63
• Revenue Growth: 30.13%
• EPS Growth: -7.60%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,500
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 86
• Industry: Engineering & Construction
• EPS (TTM): -0.11
• Shares Outstanding: 34,603,580
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 529,075
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 431,568
• PEG Ratio: -4.27
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.78
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -3.05
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.99
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.37
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 9.58
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 3.37
• 1Y Price Target: $19.00
• Price Target Upside: 16.78% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: $17.00 ▲(4.49%Upside)

Ameresco's strong earnings performance and positive technical indicators drive its score. High leverage and past cash flow volatility are risks to monitor. Valuation is moderate, with no dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Contract Resumption

The project that had been canceled has now been rescoped and the other 2 contracts have now been unpaused.

Sales Performance

Ameresco reported 4Q24 sales that exceeded expectations, driven by growth across all business lines, especially Projects and Energy Assets.

Supply Chain Stability

Much of the equipment for carrying ongoing projects and energy assets in development has already been purchased and is in the country or already on the worksites, which shields the company from near-term price increases.

Negative Factors

2025 Guidance

Management’s 2025 guidance was lower from an EBITDA perspective due to recent D3 RIN price pressure.

Government Contracts

AMRC reported a cautious 4Q, with government contracts canceled or delayed despite only a few months under the new administration.

Project Business Concerns

Concerns on the Project biz seem to have been validated after mgmt. announced a cancellation on one project and a 'pause' on two other contracts.

Ameresco Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Ameresco, Inc., a clean technology integrator, provides a portfolio of energy efficiency and renewable energy supply solutions in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It offers energy efficiency, infrastructure upgrades, energy security and resilience, asset sustainability, and renewable energy solutions for businesses and organizations. The company operates through U.S. Regions, U.S. Federal, Canada, and Non-Solar Distributed Generation segments. It designs, develops, engineers, and installs projects that reduce the energy, as well as operations and maintenance (O&M) costs of its customers' facilities. The company's projects primarily include various measures customized for the facility and designed to enhance the efficiency of building systems, such as heating, ventilation, cooling, and lighting systems. It also offers renewable energy solutions and services, such as the construction of small-scale plants that the company owns or develops for customers that produce electricity, gas, heat, or cooling from renewable sources of energy and O&M services; and electricity, processed renewable gas fuel, and heat or cooling produced from renewable sources of energy. In addition, the company sells photovoltaic (PV) solar energy products and systems, as well as provides consulting and enterprise energy management services; and owns and operates a wind power project located in Ireland. It serves the federal, state, and local governments, as well as healthcare and educational institutions, airports, public housing authorities and public universities, and commercial and industrial customers. As of December 31, 2021, the company owned and operated 147 small-scale renewable energy plants and solar PV installations. Ameresco, Inc. was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Framingham, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes Money

Ameresco makes money primarily through the design, construction, and installation of energy efficiency and renewable energy projects. The company's revenue streams include energy savings performance contracts (ESPCs), where it finances and implements energy-saving projects and is paid through the savings generated over time. Additionally, Ameresco generates income from the sale of renewable energy credits (RECs), operations and maintenance services for energy assets, and the development and sale of renewable energy projects. Significant partnerships with government entities and private sector organizations play a crucial role in its earnings by providing a steady pipeline of projects and opportunities for long-term service agreements.

Ameresco Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ameresco demonstrates stable revenue growth and operational efficiency, although high leverage and past cash flow volatility necessitate careful management. Improvement in free cash flow and strong operational cash flow indicate positive trends, but cost management and leverage optimization are needed for long-term sustainability.

Income Statement

Ameresco's TTM revenue growth rate indicates a positive trend, with a moderate increase from the previous year. The gross profit margin stands at 14.3%, reflecting reasonable pricing power, but the net profit margin is lower at 2.8%, suggesting room for improvement in cost management. EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy, which points to operational effectiveness.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.71, indicating significant leverage which could pose a risk if not managed carefully. However, the equity ratio is 25.1%, showing a solid equity base relative to total assets. Return on equity is moderate at 4.8%, suggesting average profitability for shareholders.

Cash Flow

Ameresco's free cash flow has improved to a positive value in the TTM period, a significant turnaround from previous negative figures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.36 is strong, indicating good cash generation relative to income. However, historical cash flow volatility and substantial financing activities necessitate careful liquidity management.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.82B	1.77B	1.37B	1.82B	1.22B	1.03B
Gross Profit	261.02M	256.09M	246.43M	290.83M	230.36M	187.55M
EBITDA	205.94M	108.75M	150.39M	190.78M	142.05M	116.67M
Net Income	50.30M	56.76M	62.47M	94.93M	70.46M	54.05M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	4.17B	4.16B	3.71B	2.88B	2.22B	1.75B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	71.59M	108.52M	79.27M	115.53M	50.45M	66.42M
Total Debt	1.78B	1.70B	1.55B	937.65M	497.53M	422.44M
Total Liabilities	3.12B	3.10B	2.74B	1.96B	1.47B	1.22B
Stockholders Equity	1.01B	1.01B	901.98M	824.03M	704.26M	492.81M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-258.34M	-320.75M	-621.76M	-666.19M	-356.07M	-285.34M
Operating Cash Flow	68.48M	117.60M	-69.99M	-338.29M	-172.30M	-102.58M
Investing Cash Flow	-399.31M	-386.64M	-566.94M	-328.36M	-205.26M	-181.01M
Financing Cash Flow	346.50M	278.54M	640.80M	730.23M	365.46M	305.17M

Ameresco Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 16.27
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AMRC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 16.27 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.52, above the 50-day MA of 13.97, and below the 200-day MA of 21.10, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.41 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 60.52 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.69 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AMRC.

Ameresco Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NSSC	79 Outperform	$1.07B	24.51	27.48%	1.86%	-1.05%	-2.78%
Sector *	71 Outperform	¥254.81B	12.92	8.49%	3.09%	6.34%	12.88%
AMRC	71 Outperform	$837.45M	16.03	5.64%	―	30.13%	-7.60%
MEG	68 Neutral	$750.70M	―	-14.32%	―	10.92%	-57.13%
ERII	64 Neutral	$701.95M	35.35	10.35%	―	10.93%	6.99%
EVLV	54 Neutral	$949.54M	―	-33.80%	―	36.53%	52.99%
RDW	54 Neutral	$2.22B	―	-451.56%	―	1.36%	-213.86%

Ameresco Corporate Events

Ameresco Elects New Directors at Annual Meeting

On June 4, 2025, Ameresco held its Annual Meeting where stockholders elected Jennifer Miller and Nickolas Stavropoulos as class III directors until 2028, ratified the appointment of RSM US LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025, and approved an amendment to the Company’s Restated Certificate of Incorporation to align with new Delaware law provisions on officer exculpation. These decisions reflect the company’s ongoing governance and compliance efforts, potentially impacting its operational transparency and accountability.

The most recent analyst rating on (AMRC) stock is a Buy with a $35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Ameresco stock, see the AMRC Stock Forecast page.