Ameresco (AMRC)
NYSE:AMRC
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Ameresco
(NYSE:AMRC)
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Rating:49Neutral
Price Target:
$24.50
▼(-1.29% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/01/26
The score is primarily constrained by weak cash-flow quality and higher leverage, despite solid multi-year revenue growth. Technicals also detract due to a pronounced downtrend and weak momentum. Offsetting these, the latest earnings call was constructive with upbeat 2026 guidance, backlog-driven visibility, and improving margins, but valuation remains demanding given the risk profile and lack of a dividend.
Positive Factors
Large Backlog / Revenue Visibility
A >$10B combined revenue visibility from projects, O&M and assets provides durable multi-year demand coverage. This backlog supports predictable project pipelines, aids financing of asset-backed deals, and underpins revenue growth and margin recovery as projects convert over several years.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage
Material increase in debt over recent years leaves the firm with elevated leverage that reduces financial flexibility. High leverage raises refinancing and interest-rate sensitivity, constrains ability to fund growth internally, and heightens vulnerability to project delays or weaker cash conversion.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Large Backlog / Revenue Visibility
A >$10B combined revenue visibility from projects, O&M and assets provides durable multi-year demand coverage. This backlog supports predictable project pipelines, aids financing of asset-backed deals, and underpins revenue growth and margin recovery as projects convert over several years.
Read all positive factors
Ameresco (AMRC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.40B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)579.69K
Price to Earnings (P/E)34.8
Beta (1Y)1.59
Revenue Growth12.22%
EPS Growth17.41%
CountryUS
Employees1,500
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryEngineering & Construction
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.39
Shares Outstanding34,880,074
10 Day Avg. Volume607,573
30 Day Avg. Volume579,689
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.57
Price to Book (P/B)1.43
Price to Sales (P/S)0.80
P/FCF Ratio-3.54
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.32
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.68
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit10.65
Enterprise Value/Ebitda13.64
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$41.50Price Target Upside67.20% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
EPS Forecast (FY)1.19
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.09B
Ameresco Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ameresco, Inc., a clean technology integrator, provides a portfolio of energy efficiency and renewable energy supply solutions in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It offers energy efficiency, infrastructure upgrades, energy security...
How the Company Makes Money
Ameresco makes money primarily by (1) delivering and managing energy savings performance contracts (ESPCs) and other energy efficiency/energy infrastructure projects, (2) owning and operating certain renewable energy assets and selling the resulti...
Ameresco Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Highlights revenue from different business units, indicating which areas drive growth and profitability, and where strategic shifts might be needed.
Highlights revenue from different business units, indicating which areas drive growth and profitability, and where strategic shifts might be needed.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAmeresco Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 02, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong execution, record quarterly revenue (+9% YoY), backlog expansion (total awarded backlog > $2.5B, +13% YoY), improved margins (gross margin 16.2%) and robust 2026 guidance (revenue +9%, adjusted EBITDA +19%). Recurring revenue streams and a diversified backlog provide over $10B of long-term revenue visibility. Key challenges are manageable timing and execution risks from a Q4 federal shutdown, severe weather (including irrecoverable damage to three assets), ongoing supply chain/tariff/commodity volatility, and near-term EPS pressure from a growing asset base. Overall, the positives — strong top-line growth, backlog conversion, asset additions and margin discipline — materially outweigh the operational and policy headwinds, supporting an optimistic outlook for 2026.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Revenue and YoY Growth
Q4 record revenue of $581.0M, up 9% year-over-year, demonstrating broad-based growth across all four business lines.
Negative Updates
Supply Chain, Tariffs and Commodity Volatility
Ongoing supply challenges remain (improved from COVID peak but not fully resolved); risks include tariff uncertainty and lithium price volatility — contracts increasingly include price protection clauses but policy risk persists.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Revenue and YoY Growth
Q4 record revenue of $581.0M, up 9% year-over-year, demonstrating broad-based growth across all four business lines.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Ameresco guided 2026 revenue of approximately $2.1 billion and adjusted EBITDA of about $283 million at the midpoint (roughly +9% and +19% year‑over‑year, respectively), expects to place 100–120 MW of energy assets into service including two RNG plants, and projects a seasonally weighted year with ~60% of 2026 revenue in the second half; management said Q1 revenue and adjusted EBITDA should be generally consistent with Q1 last year while Q1 EPS is expected to be lower year‑over‑year due to higher interest and depreciation from a growing asset base. The guide reflects the company’s >$5 billion project backlog, ~ $1.5 billion long‑term O&M backlog, and more than $10 billion of combined long‑term revenue visibility, and also notes structural impacts from consolidated JV activity/noncontrolling interests; recent balance‑sheet metrics cited include ~$72 million cash, ~$300 million corporate debt (2.7x leverage under the senior secured facility), ~$175 million of new project financing commitments, and an 8‑quarter rolling adjusted cash from operations of ~ $54 million.Ameresco Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
48
Neutral
Cash Flow
32
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.93B | 1.77B | 1.37B | 1.82B | 1.22B |
| Gross Profit | 304.01M | 256.09M | 246.43M | 290.83M | 230.36M |
| EBITDA | 229.75M | 194.80M | 150.39M | 190.63M | 141.93M |
| Net Income | 44.28M | 56.76M | 62.47M | 94.93M | 70.46M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 4.54B | 4.16B | 3.71B | 2.88B | 2.22B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 71.78M | 108.52M | 79.27M | 115.53M | 50.45M |
| Total Debt | 1.95B | 1.70B | 1.55B | 937.65M | 497.53M |
| Total Liabilities | 3.41B | 3.11B | 2.74B | 1.96B | 1.47B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.08B | 1.01B | 901.98M | 824.03M | 704.26M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -436.36M | -320.75M | -621.76M | -666.19M | -356.07M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -80.36M | 117.60M | -69.99M | -338.29M | -172.30M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -251.32M | -386.64M | -566.94M | -328.36M | -205.26M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 318.38M | 313.94M | 640.80M | 730.23M | 365.46M |
Ameresco Technical Analysis
Negative
24.82
Price Trends
28.60
Negative
30.07
Negative
28.92
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.92
Negative
41.68
Neutral
59.56
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AMRC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 24.82 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 26.04, below the 50-day MA of 28.60, and below the 200-day MA of 28.92, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.92 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 41.68 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.56 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AMRC.
Ameresco Risk Analysis
Ameresco disclosed 42 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ameresco reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Ameresco Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $4.95B | 28.92 | 19.65% | ― | -0.64% | 168.51% | |
70 Outperform | $5.52B | 26.09 | 17.58% | 0.45% | 6.87% | 64.56% | |
70 Outperform | $4.40B | 30.66 | 6.77% | 0.09% | 19.22% | 78.83% | |
67 Neutral | $1.16B | 29.35 | 19.12% | ― | 12.90% | 72.61% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
49 Neutral | $1.40B | 34.84 | 4.24% | ― | 12.22% | 17.41% |
* Industrials Sector Average
AMRC
Ameresco
24.82
15.24
159.08%
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Ameresco Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesPrivate Placements and Financing
Ameresco Expands Term Loan and Restructures Executive Leadership
Positive
Mar 31, 2026
On March 30, 2026, Ameresco amended its senior secured loan agreement, increasing its term loan by $45 million to $140 million while leaving a $225 million revolving credit facility in place, both maturing in December 2028. Most of the new term lo...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.