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Ameresco
(NYSE:AMRC)
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Rating:53Neutral
Price Target:
$23.00
▲(9.06% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/04/26
AMRC’s score is held back primarily by weak cash generation (negative TTM operating cash flow and consistently negative free cash flow) alongside elevated leverage and compressed margins. The latest earnings call provides meaningful support via record awards, large backlog expansion, and reaffirmed/raised guidance, but the stock’s downtrend (below major moving averages with negative MACD) and a premium P/E without dividend support keep the overall rating near the middle of the range.
Positive Factors
Backlog and Awards
Substantially larger awarded and total backlog provides multi-year revenue visibility and demand capture for Ameresco. With awards concentrated in data centers and other markets, the backlog supports planning, resource allocation, and staged revenue conversion that can sustain top-line growth over several years.
Negative Factors
Weak cash generation
Persistent negative operating and free cash flow signals structural cash-conversion and working-capital challenges from project timing and billing milestones. Even with revenue growth and EBITDA gains, ongoing negative cash flow raises funding risk and reliance on external financing for capex and working capital needs.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Backlog and Awards
Substantially larger awarded and total backlog provides multi-year revenue visibility and demand capture for Ameresco. With awards concentrated in data centers and other markets, the backlog supports planning, resource allocation, and staged revenue conversion that can sustain top-line growth over several years.
Read all positive factors
Ameresco Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Highlights revenue from different business units, indicating which areas drive growth and profitability, and where strategic shifts might be needed.
Highlights revenue from different business units, indicating which areas drive growth and profitability, and where strategic shifts might be needed.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyAmeresco (AMRC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.12B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)500.54K
Price to Earnings (P/E)35.7
Beta (1Y)1.50
Revenue Growth8.57%
EPS Growth-42.26%
CountryUS
Employees1,601
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryEngineering & Construction
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.53
Shares Outstanding34,951,416
10 Day Avg. Volume464,832
30 Day Avg. Volume500,541
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.57
Price to Book (P/B)1.43
Price to Sales (P/S)0.80
P/FCF Ratio-3.54
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$45.75Price Target Upside116.93% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)1.13
Revenue Forecast (FY)$2.11B
Ameresco Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ameresco, Inc. operates as a clean technology integrator, offering a broad spectrum of solutions focused on energy efficiency and sustainable energy generation across the United States, Canada, and global markets. The company serves diverse busine...
How the Company Makes Money
Ameresco primarily makes money through (1) project-based revenue from designing, engineering, constructing, and installing energy efficiency and clean energy systems, and (2) recurring revenue tied to operating and owning certain energy assets and...
Ameresco Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 03, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 09, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a largely positive outlook driven by record awards, substantial backlog growth, improved margins, growing energy asset and O&M businesses, and strengthened capital via the Neogenyx JV. The company acknowledged near-term cash conversion and working capital timing pressures, modest GAAP profitability impacted by asset growth and transaction-related non-controlling interests, and execution risks tied to permitting, supply chain, and project timelines for large data center opportunities. Overall, the upside from robust awards, diversified recurring revenue streams, and financing support outweigh the near-term operational and timing challenges.Positive Updates
Record New Awards
New awards reached a record $1.8 billion for the quarter, driven by $1.2 billion in data center awards and $600 million across other markets.
Negative Updates
Working Capital and Cash Conversion Drag
Adjusted cash from operations was negatively impacted by timing of project execution, billings and collections as significant work was performed ahead of contractual billing milestones; management flagged cash conversion as a key priority for H2.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record New Awards
New awards reached a record $1.8 billion for the quarter, driven by $1.2 billion in data center awards and $600 million across other markets.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reaffirmed full‑year 2026 guidance across all metrics while raising non‑GAAP EPS guidance to $1.15–$1.35 (driven by an expected tax‑benefit rate of 25%–40% tied to a planned H2 accounting change for transferable tax credits); they expect awarded backlog to convert to revenue over the next 3–4 years and cited record Q2 new awards of $1.8B ($1.2B data centers, $600M other) with awarded backlog up 65% to $4.4B and total project backlog up 32% to $6.7B. Management said the second half should follow a normal seasonal cadence weighted toward Q4, is prioritizing cash conversion, and highlighted balance‑sheet flexibility with $138M unrestricted cash, $385M total corporate debt (3.2x leverage vs a 3.5x covenant) and $471M of new financing commitments (including $400M related to the Neogenyx JV).Ameresco Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
63
Positive
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
31
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.02B | 1.93B | 1.77B | 1.37B | 1.82B | 1.22B |
| Gross Profit | 326.51M | 304.01M | 256.09M | 246.43M | 290.83M | 230.36M |
| EBITDA | 219.68M | 237.18M | 194.80M | 150.39M | 190.63M | 141.93M |
| Net Income | 38.53M | 44.28M | 56.76M | 62.47M | 94.93M | 70.46M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.83B | 4.54B | 4.16B | 3.71B | 2.88B | 2.22B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 138.33M | 71.78M | 108.52M | 79.27M | 115.53M | 50.45M |
| Total Debt | 2.02B | 1.95B | 1.70B | 1.55B | 937.65M | 497.53M |
| Total Liabilities | 3.48B | 3.41B | 3.11B | 2.74B | 1.96B | 1.47B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.35B | 1.08B | 1.01B | 901.98M | 824.03M | 704.26M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -235.62M | -436.36M | -320.75M | -621.76M | -666.19M | -356.07M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -97.00M | -80.36M | 117.60M | -69.99M | -338.29M | -172.30M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -289.35M | -251.32M | -386.64M | -566.94M | -328.36M | -205.26M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 100.24M | 318.38M | 313.94M | 640.80M | 730.23M | 365.46M |
Ameresco Technical Analysis
Positive
21.09
Price Trends
26.96
Positive
27.31
Positive
30.01
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.05
Negative
61.79
Neutral
65.60
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AMRC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 21.09 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 23.10, below the 50-day MA of 26.96, and below the 200-day MA of 30.01, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.79 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 65.60 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AMRC.
Ameresco Risk Analysis
Ameresco disclosed 43 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ameresco reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Ameresco Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $35.17B | 24.83 | 38.42% | 0.19% | 18.92% | 33.51% | |
75 Outperform | $1.04B | 17.71 | 19.38% | ― | 14.87% | 121.85% | |
74 Outperform | $8.61B | 19.86 | 23.76% | 0.84% | -7.61% | 105.41% | |
72 Outperform | $14.83B | 32.63 | 53.95% | ― | 22.66% | 83.08% | |
66 Neutral | $5.19B | 31.35 | 24.17% | ― | 16.06% | 121.28% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
53 Neutral | $1.12B | 35.71 | 3.35% | ― | 8.57% | -42.26% |
* Industrials Sector Average
AMRC
Ameresco
27.94
3.06
12.30%
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Ameresco Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Ameresco Appoints Brian Cox to Board of Directors
Positive
Jul 27, 2026
On July 22, 2026, Ameresco’s board of directors appointed Brian Cox as a Class III director, effective August 1, 2026, with his term scheduled to run until the company’s 2028 annual meeting of stockholders. Cox will also join the board...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Ameresco Shareholders Approve Expanded Equity Plan and Directors
Positive
Jun 8, 2026
At its June 4, 2026 annual meeting, Ameresco stockholders approved an amendment to the 2020 Equity Incentive Plan, increasing the pool of Class A common shares available for issuance by 3.2 million, a move that expands the company’s capacity...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
Ameresco Forms Neogenyx Fuels Biofuels Joint Venture
Positive
May 12, 2026
On May 12, 2026, Ameresco announced it had closed its previously disclosed transaction with HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital, Inc. to carve out its biofuels operations into a new joint venture called Neogenyx Fuels. The vehicle, which is valu...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesPrivate Placements and Financing
Ameresco Forms Neogenyx Biogas Joint Venture with HASI
Positive
May 4, 2026
On May 4, 2026, Ameresco entered into an agreement with an affiliate of HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital to form Neogenyx Fuels LLC, a joint venture that will house Ameresco’s existing biogas business. Ameresco will contribute its bioga...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.