Ameresco (AMRC) AI Stock Analysis

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Ameresco

(NYSE:AMRC)

Select Model

Neutral 61 (OpenAI - 4o)

Rating:61Neutral

Price Target:

$33.00

▲(11.41% Upside)

Ameresco's overall score is driven by strong earnings call results and revenue growth, but is tempered by financial risks from high leverage and negative cash flows. Technical analysis indicates weak momentum, and valuation suggests the stock is relatively expensive.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Consistent revenue growth indicates robust business expansion and market demand, supporting long-term financial health and strategic goals.

Project Backlog

A strong project backlog provides revenue visibility and stability, ensuring sustained business operations and growth opportunities.

Energy Asset Expansion

Expanding energy assets enhances Ameresco's market position and revenue base, contributing to long-term growth in renewable energy solutions.

Negative Factors

High Leverage

High leverage can increase financial risk, limiting flexibility and potentially impacting the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities.

Negative Cash Flows

Negative cash flows can strain liquidity and hinder the company's ability to fund operations and growth initiatives without external financing.

Profitability Challenges

Low profitability margins suggest challenges in cost management or competitive pressures, which could impact long-term financial performance.

Ameresco (AMRC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$1.56B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)484.49K

Price to Earnings (P/E)25.1

Beta (1Y)1.57

Revenue Growth12.22%

EPS Growth17.41%

CountryUS

Employees1,500

SectorIndustrials

Sector Strength72

IndustryEngineering & Construction

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.35

Shares Outstanding34,797,455

10 Day Avg. Volume534,674

30 Day Avg. Volume484,492

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-2.17

Price to Book (P/B)1.21

Price to Sales (P/S)0.69

P/FCF Ratio-3.83

Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.29

Enterprise Value/Revenue1.90

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit12.98

Enterprise Value/Ebitda15.39

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$41.00

Price Target Upside38.42% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering7

EPS Forecast (FY)N/A

Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A

Ameresco Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAmeresco, Inc. (AMRC) is a leading energy efficiency and renewable energy company based in the United States. The company specializes in the development and implementation of comprehensive energy solutions, including energy efficiency projects, renewable energy generation, and sustainable infrastructure solutions. Ameresco operates across various sectors, including commercial, industrial, institutional, and government markets, providing services such as energy audits, facility upgrades, and energy management systems.

How the Company Makes MoneyAmeresco primarily generates revenue through a combination of energy efficiency services, renewable energy projects, and ongoing operations and maintenance contracts. The company earns money by implementing energy-saving solutions for its clients, which often involve upfront capital investments that are then recouped through energy savings over time. Key revenue streams include performance-based contracts where Ameresco is compensated based on the energy savings achieved, as well as long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) for renewable energy projects, such as solar and wind installations. Additionally, partnerships with government agencies and private sector clients enhance its earnings potential by creating opportunities for large-scale projects and financing options. The company's strong focus on sustainability and energy independence aligns with increasing demand for clean energy solutions, contributing positively to its financial growth.

Ameresco Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Any

Revenue by Geography

Revenue by Geography
Breaks down revenue across different regions, revealing where the company is strongest and where it may face risk or growth potential due to local economic conditions or market share shifts.

Chart InsightsAmeresco's revenue growth in Europe is a standout, driven by strategic expansion and now contributing significantly to the company's diversification strategy. This aligns with the earnings call highlighting Europe as a key growth area, now accounting for 20% of the project backlog. Despite challenges like supplier bankruptcy and regulatory issues, Ameresco's strong backlog and diversified approach across geographies and technologies position it well for continued growth, with nearly $10 billion in revenue visibility.

Data provided by:

The Fly

Ameresco Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Sep 30, 2025

(Q3-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Mar 04, 2026

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call highlighted strong financial performance, growth in backlog, and successful project executions, particularly in energy infrastructure and data centers. However, potential delays due to the federal government shutdown and certain revenue segment challenges were also noted. The sentiment is overall positive due to the strong growth and financial metrics.

Q3-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Revenue Growth and Strong Financial Performance

Ameresco reported a 5% year-over-year revenue growth, with adjusted EBITDA increasing by 13% to $70.4 million. Gross margin improved to 16%, showcasing strong financial performance and effective cost management.

Significant Project Backlog and New Awards

The total project backlog grew to $5.1 billion, with $450 million in new project awards and a 33% increase in contracted project backlog to $2.5 billion. This includes notable achievements in energy infrastructure projects.

Expansion in Energy Asset Portfolio

Energy asset revenue grew by 6%, with an additional 16 megawatts placed into operation during the quarter, bringing total operating assets to 765 megawatts. The company remains on track to meet its annual target for additional assets.

Growth in O&M Revenue

Recurring O&M revenue increased by 8% this quarter, with the long-term O&M backlog reaching approximately $1.5 billion.

Successful Data Center and Industrial Projects

Ameresco announced significant projects such as a 50-megawatt battery energy storage system with Nucor and a 40-megawatt firm power plant for Hawaiian Electric, highlighting its capability in providing resilient power solutions.

Negative Updates

Potential Impact of Federal Government Shutdown

While proactive measures were taken, a prolonged government shutdown could delay some project award conversions and shift revenue timing, though it is not expected to materially impact Q4 results.

Challenges in Other Revenue Segment

Revenue from the other line of business was lower year-over-year due to the divestiture of the AEG business at the end of 2024.

Company Guidance

During Ameresco's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call, the company reported strong financial performance, driven by significant achievements in business development across all lines. Key metrics included a 5% year-over-year revenue growth, a 13% increase in adjusted EBITDA, and a total project backlog of $5.1 billion, with $450 million in new project awards. The energy asset revenue increased by 6%, bolstered by the addition of 16 megawatts to their operating assets, while the O&M revenue rose by 8%, enhancing their long-term revenue visibility to over $10 billion. Ameresco's diversified business model, with its focus on energy infrastructure solutions, positioned the company well for continued growth, leading to the reaffirmation of their 2025 guidance.

Ameresco Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Ameresco shows strong revenue growth of 35.1%, but profitability and cash flow management are concerning. High leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.78 and negative cash flows pose financial risks, despite potential for growth.

Income Statement

Positive

Ameresco's income statement shows a strong revenue growth of 35.1% in the TTM period, indicating robust business expansion. The gross profit margin is stable at 14.67%, though slightly lower than previous years. Net profit margin is modest at 3.34%, reflecting some pressure on profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins have decreased compared to historical data, suggesting increased operational costs or competitive pressures.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.78, indicating significant leverage which could pose financial risk. Return on equity is relatively low at 6.07%, suggesting limited efficiency in generating returns from equity. The equity ratio stands at 23.85%, showing a moderate level of equity financing relative to total assets.

Cash Flow

Neutral

Cash flow analysis highlights challenges with negative operating and free cash flows in the TTM period. The free cash flow to net income ratio is high at 5.20, indicating that free cash flow is significantly negative relative to net income. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, reflecting cash flow difficulties despite positive net income.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.88B	1.77B	1.37B	1.82B	1.22B	1.03B
Gross Profit	276.40M	256.09M	246.43M	290.83M	230.36M	187.55M
EBITDA	233.09M	194.80M	150.39M	190.63M	141.93M	116.58M
Net Income	63.00M	56.76M	62.47M	94.93M	70.46M	54.05M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	4.43B	4.16B	3.71B	2.88B	2.22B	1.75B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	94.55M	108.52M	79.27M	115.53M	50.45M	66.42M
Total Debt	2.46B	1.70B	1.55B	937.65M	497.53M	873.15M
Total Liabilities	3.33B	3.11B	2.74B	1.96B	1.47B	1.22B
Stockholders Equity	1.06B	1.01B	901.98M	824.03M	704.26M	492.81M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-294.81M	-320.75M	-621.76M	-666.19M	-356.07M	-285.34M
Operating Cash Flow	-19.09M	117.60M	-69.99M	-338.29M	-172.30M	-102.58M
Investing Cash Flow	-288.60M	-386.64M	-566.94M	-328.36M	-205.26M	-181.01M
Financing Cash Flow	318.93M	313.94M	640.80M	730.23M	365.46M	305.17M

Ameresco Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price29.62

Price Trends

50DMA

35.39

Negative

100DMA

31.29

Negative

200DMA

22.56

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

-1.42

Positive

RSI

34.08

Neutral

STOCH

15.99

Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AMRC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 29.62 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 32.26, below the 50-day MA of 35.39, and above the 200-day MA of 22.56, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.42 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.08 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.99 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AMRC.

Ameresco Risk Analysis

Ameresco disclosed 44 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ameresco reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Ameresco Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (63)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WLDN	76 Outperform	$1.64B	39.97	16.38%	―	12.90%	72.61%
MYRG	76 Outperform	$3.43B	35.73	16.22%	―	-0.64%	168.51%
GVA	70 Outperform	$5.04B	33.93	16.87%	0.45%	6.87%	64.56%
TPC	65 Neutral	$3.69B	-128.94	-2.31%	0.09%	19.22%	78.83%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
AMRC	61 Neutral	$1.56B	25.09	6.31%	―	12.22%	17.41%

* Industrials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

AMRC

Ameresco

29.62

6.77

29.63%

GVA

Granite Construction

115.45

25.36

28.15%

MYRG

MYR Group

221.15

71.24

47.52%

TPC

Tutor Perini

69.99

44.98

179.85%

WLDN

Willdan Group

111.37

72.90

189.50%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 14, 2025