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AP Moller Maersk (AMKBY)
OTHER OTC:AMKBY
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AP Moller - Maersk
(OTC:AMKBY)
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Rating:65Neutral
Price Target:
$14.00
â–²(44.78% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/03/26
The score is driven mainly by pressured financial performance in a shipping downcycle (margin and cash-flow deterioration), partially offset by a solid balance sheet. Technicals are supportive with clear uptrend and positive momentum, while valuation is helped by a high dividend yield and moderate P/E. The latest earnings call adds caution due to 2026 guidance uncertainty and potential loss-making outcomes.
Positive Factors
Balance-sheet resilience
Maersk’s materially stronger balance sheet—equity far exceeds debt and leverage improved versus 2020—gives durable financial optionality. That capacity supports multiyear capex plans, dividend and buyback flexibility, and the ability to absorb cyclical shipping shocks without forcing distress sales or deep refinancing.
Business diversification
Strong Terminals performance and improving Logistics margins reduce dependence on volatile ocean freight. Terminals’ high ROIC and Logistics’ multi-quarter margin improvement create more stable, fee-based earnings and recurring cash flow, smoothing group volatility across shipping cycles over the medium term.
Structural cost program & cash buffer
Gemini’s quantified operational and bunker/asset-turn benefits represent a lasting efficiency uplift that materially lowers operating breakevens. Combined with a sizable cash pool, this strengthens cash generation resilience and funds strategic investments or shareholder returns through multi‑quarter rate volatility.
Negative Factors
Margin compression
Margins have normalized sharply from peak-cycle levels, reflecting structural pressure on freight rates and higher unit cost exposure. Persistently lower gross and net margins reduce internal earnings reinvestment capacity and long-term ROE, making growth investments and returns more dependent on cyclical recovery.
Guidance allows downside
Management’s wide 2026 ranges explicitly allow negative EBIT and materially negative free cash flow, signalling that cash generation and profitability can deteriorate materially in the next 12–24 months. This increases the risk that capital returns or planned capex will be constrained if cycle weakness persists.
Industry overcapacity risk
Structural supply growth and potential Suez reopening-driven excess capacity suggest multi‑quarter pressure on freight rates. Persistent fleet additions relative to demand can keep utilization and pricing weak, making Ocean earnings inherently cyclical and prolonging the recovery timeline for margins and returns.
AP Moller - Maersk (AMKBY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$38.66B
Dividend Yield9.71%
Average Volume (3M)86.53K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.14
Revenue Growth4.98%
EPS Growth37.22%
CountryUS
Employees100,000
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryMarine Shipping
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.02
Shares Outstanding1,214,478,000
10 Day Avg. Volume108,392
30 Day Avg. Volume86,525
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.24
Price to Book (P/B)0.63
Price to Sales (P/S)0.65
P/FCF Ratio7.02
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.29
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.93
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.93
Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.06
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.1
Revenue Forecast (FY)$50.22B
AP Moller - Maersk Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionA.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S operates as an integrated transport and logistics company worldwide. The company's Ocean segment engages in container shipping activities, including demurrage and detention, terminal handling, documentation and container services, and container storage, as well as transshipment services under Maersk Line, Safmarine, Sealand – A Maersk Company, Hamburg Süd, and APM Terminal brands; and sale of bunker oil. Its Logistics & Services segment offers sea and air freight forwarding, supply chain management, cold chain logistics, and custom services, services. The company's Terminals & Towage segment is involved in Gateway terminal activities, and offshore towage, salvage and related marine activities under APM Terminals brand. Its Manufacturing & Others segment engages in the production of reefer containers; anchor handling tug supply vessels and subsea support vessels, and training services to the maritime, oil and gas, offshore wind, and crane industries. The company was founded in 1904 and is based in Copenhagen, Denmark.
How the Company Makes MoneyAP Moller - Maersk generates revenue primarily through its container shipping operations, which include freight transportation and associated services. The company charges shipping fees based on container volume, distance traveled, and service level. Key revenue streams also include terminal operations, where Maersk earns money from handling container cargo at ports, and logistics services, which encompass warehousing and freight forwarding. Significant partnerships with global retailers and manufacturers enhance Maersk's earnings by securing long-term contracts for shipping and logistics services. Additionally, fluctuations in global trade volumes, shipping rates, and fuel prices can impact revenue, making market conditions a critical factor in the company's financial performance.
AP Moller - Maersk Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call balanced strong operational and financial achievements (notably Gemini-related cost benefits, record Terminals performance, solid full‑year EBITDA/EBIT, healthy cash position and continued shareholder returns) against clear and material near‑term headwinds centered on a sharp decline in ocean freight rates, an expected cyclical downturn in Ocean profitability, impairments and guidance that allows for negative EBIT and free cash flow outcomes in 2026. Management emphasized cost discipline, simplification and optionality, but the outlook remains uncertain due to industry overcapacity and Red Sea reopening scenarios.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Full-Year Profitability
Full-year 2025 group results: EBITDA $9.5 billion and EBIT $3.5 billion, placing results toward the upper end of prior guidance; full-year EBITDA margin 17.7% and EBIT margin 6.5%.
Gemini Implementation Delivered Material Benefits
Gemini network produced operational and cost benefits: Q4 quantified benefits > $300 million (≈$150M bunker savings, ≈$120M asset-turn savings, ~$4M terminal uplift), and management now targets $820M–$1.1B in annualized benefits.
Ocean Volume Growth and High Utilization
Ocean loaded volumes up 8% year‑on‑year in Q4 (3.4 million FFEs; ~30 million FFEs for the full year); fleet utilization sustained at 94%; capacity grew ~4.3% year‑on‑year while asset turns improved ~4 percentage points.
Terminals Record Year and Strong Margins
Record year for Terminals: full‑year revenue growth ~20% and EBIT growth ~31%; Q4 revenue +13% to $1.4B, volumes +8.4% YoY, utilization 88%, revenue per move +4% to $363, and ROIC 16.1% (well above 9% target).
Improvement in Logistics & Services Profitability
Logistics & Services improved operational performance: full-year EBIT margin 4.8% (up 1.2 percentage points vs 2024); Q4 EBIT margin 4.9% (up from 4.1% YoY) marking the seventh consecutive quarter of YoY margin improvement.
Strong Cash Position and Cash Returns to Shareholders
Cash and deposits of $21.4B at quarter end; net cash $2.9B. Continued shareholder returns: proposed dividend DKK 480/share (40% payout) and a new $1B share buyback tranche (12 months), implying ~$2.1B total cash return for 2026.
Robust Cash Generation and CapEx Discipline
Q4 operating cash flow $2.5B; Q4 cash conversion 137% (FY conversion 102%); Q4 free cash flow ≈ $1B; full‑year CapEx $4.8B (at lower end of guidance).
Lower Depreciation Pressure for 2026
Useful life of vessels increased from 20 to 25 years, reducing depreciation by approximately $700M in 2026 (reflected in guidance).
Negative Updates
Significant Freight Rate Decline in Ocean
Average freight rates decreased 23% YoY and ~8% sequentially (Q4), driving a major negative headwind (~$2.1B impact year‑on‑year) to Ocean EBITDA and profitability.
Ocean Profitability Pressures and Q4 Loss
Ocean Q4 EBITDA down 59% YoY and 35% sequentially to $1.2B; Ocean reported an EBIT loss of $153M in Q4 as rate declines outweighed Gemini cost benefits.
Guidance Reflects Material Uncertainty and Potential Losses
2026 guidance wide and cautious: expected container volumes +2% to +4% but underlying EBIT guidance ranges from negative $1.5B to positive $1.0B and free cash flow guidance >= negative $3B, signaling downside risk from industry overcapacity and Red Sea reopening scenarios.
Logistics & Services Growth Still Modest and Below Target
Logistics revenue growth modest: +1.9% YoY in Q4 and down 0.5% sequentially; EBIT margin remains below the 6% mid‑term target (current ~4.8%–4.9%).
Segment-Specific Charges and Impairments
Terminals incurred an $86M expense related to impairment of a European terminal and a write‑down in Asia; Transport Services had a $22M aircraft impairment impacting margins (~1.2 percentage points).
Return on Invested Capital Decline
Group ROIC for the period was 5.7%, lower year‑on‑year and sequentially, reflecting additional investments in Ocean and Terminals and the strong 2H‑2024 comparables no longer in the LTM measure.
Net Cash Reduction After Share Returns
Net cash decreased to $2.9B year‑on‑year, primarily due to cash returned via dividends and share buybacks despite a strong cash balance overall.
Industry Overcapacity & Fleet Additions Risk
Management flags industry overcapacity (4%–8% potential excess when Suez reopens and new vessel deliveries) and rising fleet TEU (+4.3% YoY to 4.6M TEU), creating multi‑quarter volatility and downside for rates.
Company Guidance
Maersk’s 2026 guidance assumes global container volumes up 2–4% (Maersk growing in line with the market) and targets underlying EBITDA of $4.7–7.0bn, underlying EBIT of –$1.5bn to +$1.0bn, and free cash flow ≥ –$3.0bn; CapEx is guided at $10–11bn for 2026–27 combined (with ~ $700m lower depreciation in 2026 from extending vessel useful life), Gemini is now targeted to deliver $820m–$1.1bn of annual benefits (Q4 generated >$300m), and capital returns include a proposed 2025 dividend of DKK 480/share (40% payout, ≈ $1.1bn) plus a new ~$1bn share buyback (total cash return for 2026 ≈ $2.1bn); the range reflects industry overcapacity (roughly 4–8% of excess capacity) and different Red Sea reopening scenarios.AP Moller - Maersk Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financials show downcycle pressure: revenue is flat-to-down and margins compressed sharply in 2025 (gross ~7.1%, net ~5.0%). Balance sheet leverage is manageable with improved debt-to-equity and substantial equity, but returns weakened (ROE ~4.9% vs ~10.7% in 2024). Cash flow remains positive but deteriorated year over year (FCF down ~19% and weaker cash conversion).Income Statement
Revenue has been volatile, with strong expansion in 2021–2022 followed by a downcycle in 2023 and essentially flat-to-down results in 2025 (annual revenue growth -2.286). Profitability has also normalized sharply from peak-cycle 2021–2022 levels: 2025 gross margin is ~7.1% and net margin ~5.0% versus 2024 at ~12.5% and ~11.0%, respectively. Strengths include still-positive earnings and a solid EBITDA margin (~20.7% in 2025), but the clear margin compression and earnings decline from 2024 to 2025 weighs on the score.58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
Leverage looks manageable for the business: debt-to-equity is moderate and has generally improved versus 2020 (about 0.52 in 2020 to ~0.34 in 2025). Equity remains substantial ($55.6B in 2025) relative to total debt ($18.9B), providing balance-sheet resilience. The key weakness is declining profitability on equity from peak levels (return on equity ~4.9% in 2025 vs ~10.7% in 2024), which reduces the balance sheet’s earnings power even though leverage is not excessive.72
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation remains positive, with 2025 operating cash flow of $9.8B and free cash flow of $5.0B, but both are weaker versus 2024 (free cash flow down ~19.0% in 2025). Cash conversion has also softened: free cash flow is ~45% of net income in 2025 (vs ~63% in 2024), and operating cash flow relative to net income is below 1.0 in recent years (about 0.76–0.82 in 2023–2025), suggesting less supportive working-capital and/or higher cash demands through the cycle. A major strength is the company’s demonstrated ability to produce very strong cash flows during upcycles (notably 2021–2022), but current momentum is negative.55
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 53.99B | 55.48B | 51.06B | 81.53B | 61.79B |
| Gross Profit | 3.81B | 6.92B | 3.87B | 31.32B | 19.81B |
| EBITDA | 11.18B | 13.39B | 11.37B | 36.96B | 24.48B |
| Net Income | 2.73B | 6.11B | 3.82B | 29.20B | 17.94B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 88.35B | 87.70B | 82.58B | 93.68B | 72.27B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 10.32B | 24.04B | 6.70B | 11.00B | 11.84B |
| Total Debt | 18.92B | 16.48B | 14.81B | 15.64B | 15.34B |
| Total Liabilities | 31.66B | 29.75B | 27.49B | 28.65B | 26.68B |
| Stockholders Equity | 55.58B | 56.92B | 54.03B | 63.99B | 44.51B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 4.96B | 7.21B | 6.00B | 30.31B | 19.05B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 9.76B | 11.41B | 9.64B | 34.48B | 22.02B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 495.00M | -7.92B | 4.08B | -21.62B | -8.34B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -7.87B | -3.50B | -16.80B | -14.13B | -7.90B |
AP Moller - Maersk Technical Analysis
Positive
9.67
Price Trends
12.02
Positive
11.09
Positive
10.53
Positive
Market Momentum
0.30
Negative
64.04
Neutral
93.92
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AMKBY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.67 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.34, below the 50-day MA of 12.02, and below the 200-day MA of 10.53, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.30 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.04 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 93.92 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AMKBY.
AP Moller - Maersk Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $2.06B | 3.51 | 13.16% | 3.64% | 3.82% | -13.73% | |
76 Outperform | $2.10B | 5.21 | 16.57% | 2.94% | -29.82% | -16.77% | |
76 Outperform | $2.06B | 5.47 | 8.81% | 0.39% | -1.33% | -33.66% | |
76 Outperform | $5.09B | 8.56 | 16.44% | 1.13% | 1.88% | 9.30% | |
65 Neutral | $38.66B | -119.85 | 4.85% | 9.71% | 4.98% | 37.22% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
62 Neutral | $3.48B | 3.32 | 25.25% | 20.35% | 1.63% | -30.30% |
* Industrials Sector Average
AMKBY
AP Moller - Maersk
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.