Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA)
NASDAQ:AKBA
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Akebia Therapeutics
(NASDAQ:AKBA)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$1.50
▲(7.14% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/26/26
AKBA scores mid-range primarily due to improving financial performance (operating profitability and strong positive free cash flow) and a generally positive earnings update with strong cash runway and commercial/pipeline progress. The score is held back by weak technicals (clear downtrend and negative momentum) and limited valuation support due to ongoing losses and no dividend.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Sustained positive operating and free cash flow (~$68M TTM) materially reduces refinancing risk and funds commercialization and R&D without immediate equity raises. Durable cash generation supports multi‑year execution of launch, trials and commercial scale-up plans.
Negative Factors
Generic pressure on legacy product
Projected generic erosion of Auryxia revenue is a structural headwind to legacy cash flows and margins. Reduced contribution from an established product increases reliance on Vafseo's adoption and pipeline milestones to sustain company revenue and profitability longer term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Sustained positive operating and free cash flow (~$68M TTM) materially reduces refinancing risk and funds commercialization and R&D without immediate equity raises. Durable cash generation supports multi‑year execution of launch, trials and commercial scale-up plans.
Read all positive factors
Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$402.38M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.59M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.99
Revenue Growth47.46%
EPS Growth94.76%
CountryUS
Employees181
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.02
Shares Outstanding268,250,030
10 Day Avg. Volume2,600,168
30 Day Avg. Volume2,589,647
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.83
Price to Book (P/B)12.70
Price to Sales (P/S)1.75
P/FCF Ratio6.09
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.04
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.78
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.14
Enterprise Value/Ebitda19.35
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$4.67Price Target Upside233.33% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.08
Revenue Forecast (FY)$232.99M
Akebia Therapeutics Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Akebia Therapeutics, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of therapeutics for patients with kidney diseases. The company's lead product investigational product candidate is vadadustat, an oral therapy...
How the Company Makes Money
Akebia makes money primarily through commercialization-related revenue from its kidney-disease products and through collaboration/partnering economics. Key revenue streams include: (1) Product sales: revenue from sales of Vafseo (vadadustat) in ma...
Akebia Therapeutics Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed substantive progress: a successful commercial launch of Vafseo with meaningful early prescriber traction and access, significant year-over-year revenue growth (~47%) and a materially improved balance sheet (cash up to $184.8M), supported by promising clinical and cost data that could drive longer-term adoption. Offsetting these positives were slower adoption in H2 2025, a one-time $4.8M inventory drawdown related to an in-center dosing transition, rising R&D spend (including a $12.8M acquired R&D charge) and expected 2026 pressure on Auryxia from generics. Overall the positives (revenue growth, cash position, clinical evidence, expanding prescriber/access and pipeline catalysts) outweigh the near-term operational and competitive headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong Full-Year Revenue Growth
Total revenues increased to $236.2M in 2025 from $160.2M in 2024, a ~47% year-over-year increase driven by the U.S. introduction of Vafseo and higher Auryxia sales.
Negative Updates
Flattening Demand and Slower-than-Expected Uptake in H2 2025
Vafseo demand flattened in the second half of 2025 (demand roughly $11–12M across Q2–Q4). Q4 reported $6.2M net product revenue on about $11M demand, reflecting slower adoption than management expected.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Full-Year Revenue Growth
Total revenues increased to $236.2M in 2025 from $160.2M in 2024, a ~47% year-over-year increase driven by the U.S. introduction of Vafseo and higher Auryxia sales.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management did not give revenue guidance but provided numerous metric-based signposts: Vafseo demand was about $11M in Q4 (Q4 net product revenue $6.2M; calendar 2025 Vafseo net $45.8M), with demand roughly flat to ~$12M in Q2–Q3; a one‑time USRC inventory drawdown of ~$4.8M impacted Q4. Total 2025 net product revenue for Vafseo + Auryxia was $227M (Auryxia: $48.1M Q4, $181.5M CY), total revenues were $236.2M for 2025 ($57.6M Q4), Q4 COGS $12.5M, Q4 R&D $26.6M, Q4 SG&A $26.1M, Q4 net loss $12.2M and FY net loss $5.3M. Commercial and operational metrics: >1,000 prescribers across 24 dialysis organizations, ~800 prescribers wrote scripts in Q4 (average ~10.3 prescriptions; 128 new prescribers), 290,000 patients now have clinic access, ~25% of Q4 new patients were outside USRC, and management expects the vast majority of USRC in‑center patients to be on 3x/week observed dosing by end of Q1. Adherence improved (first‑refill rates rose from ~75% to ~91% in the observed‑dosing subset in Q4; ~87% in January in the larger observed cohort) and providers continue protocol rollouts. Financial runway and pipeline guidance: cash was $184.8M as of 12/31/25 (vs $51.9M a year earlier) and is expected to fund operations for at least two years; Auryxia revenue is expected to decline in 2026 due to expanding generics; VOCAL topline is expected late 2026 and VOICE in early 2027; praliciguat Phase II plans to enroll ~60 patients with a 24‑week UPCR endpoint, AKB‑097 Phase II basket to start H2 2026 (initial data 2027), and AKB‑9090 Phase I in H1 2026 with topline later in the year. Management also highlighted health‑economic INNO2VATE findings: 7.7% lower annual hospitalization rate, 16% fewer hospitalization days, ~15% lower Medicare hospitalization costs, ~$3,700 saved per patient per year (~$2B annual if all eligible patients treated).Akebia Therapeutics Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
48
Neutral
Cash Flow
72
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 236.20M | 160.18M | 194.62M | 292.48M | 211.65M |
| Gross Profit | 196.73M | 97.00M | 120.47M | 269.99M | 130.16M |
| EBITDA | 21.73M | -13.72M | -8.27M | 3.06M | -189.91M |
| Net Income | -5.34M | -69.41M | -51.92M | -94.23M | -282.02M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 376.56M | 220.67M | 241.70M | 356.05M | 529.35M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 184.84M | 51.87M | 42.92M | 90.47M | 149.80M |
| Total Debt | 216.30M | 188.73M | 104.18M | 99.78M | 136.05M |
| Total Liabilities | 343.95M | 269.86M | 272.29M | 350.82M | 455.34M |
| Stockholders Equity | 32.61M | -49.19M | -30.58M | 5.23M | 74.01M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 67.99M | -40.69M | -23.38M | -73.27M | -253.02M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 67.99M | -40.66M | -23.38M | -73.15M | -252.97M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -7.93M | -33.00K | 0.00 | -114.00K | 39.94M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 72.93M | 49.66M | -25.21M | 14.60M | 133.73M |
Akebia Therapeutics Technical Analysis
Negative
1.40
Price Trends
1.36
Positive
1.44
Negative
2.22
Negative
Market Momentum
0.02
Negative
49.65
Neutral
45.20
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AKBA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.4 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.40, above the 50-day MA of 1.36, and below the 200-day MA of 2.22, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.65 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 45.20 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AKBA.
Akebia Therapeutics Risk Analysis
Akebia Therapeutics disclosed 60 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Akebia Therapeutics reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Akebia Therapeutics Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $870.75M | 3.90 | 46.03% | ― | 66.92% | ― | |
63 Neutral | $1.64B | -4.89 | -49.31% | ― | -7.61% | 17.32% | |
58 Neutral | $3.98B | -13.94 | -25.30% | ― | ― | 63.93% | |
58 Neutral | $1.41B | -5.44 | -62.48% | ― | ― | -86.21% | |
55 Neutral | $402.38M | -8.72 | -16.70% | ― | 47.46% | 94.76% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
45 Neutral | $567.69M | -3.93 | 6.86% | ― | 1075.00% | 18.02% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
AKBA
Akebia Therapeutics
1.50
-0.82
-35.34%
ORKA
Oruka Therapeutics
66.46
57.17
615.39%
TBPH
Theravance Biopharma
16.91
6.82
67.59%
VIR
Vir Biotechnology
10.18
4.55
80.82%
PROK
ProKidney
1.88
1.19
172.46%
AVBP
ArriVent BioPharma, Inc.
30.38
10.69
54.29%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.