Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $832.56M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 3.94M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.33
• Revenue Growth: 16.75%
• EPS Growth: 14.72%
• Country: US
• Employees: 181
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 51
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): 0.00
• Shares Outstanding: 265,145,050
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,855,509
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,941,036
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.27
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 5.20
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 6.99
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 96.31
• 1Y Price Target: $7.00
• Price Target Upside: 125.08% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3

• Rating: 49 Neutral
• Price Target: ―

Akebia Therapeutics faces significant financial challenges, including declining revenue and high leverage. However, the strong launch of Vafseo and strategic market expansion provide some optimism. Despite these positive developments, the stock remains a risk due to ongoing financial instability and valuation challenges.

Positive Factors

Partnerships

Akebia's partnership with DaVita represents a significant competitive advantage given DaVita's market leadership in controlling the majority of dialysis care delivery.

Patient Access

Vafseo will now be accessible to over 55,000 patients through dialysis provider protocols, indicating a more optimistic long-term view.

Revenue Growth

The revenue estimate for Auryxia was raised by approximately 80% due to its stability in the first half of the year.

Negative Factors

Generic Competition

AURYXIA lost intellectual property exclusivity in March 2025, with an authorized generic expected to reduce the contribution to total revenues over time as additional potential generic competition is introduced.

Market Saturation

Vafseo revenues fell below expectations as growth moderated, likely reflecting saturation of the current patient addressable base.

Revenue Performance

The FY25E revenue estimate for Vafseo was reduced by approximately 13% due to weaker than expected performance.

Akebia Therapeutics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. (AKBA) is a biopharmaceutical company that focuses on the development and commercialization of therapeutics for patients with kidney disease. The company operates primarily in the healthcare sector, targeting the nephrology space. Akebia's core products include vadadustat, an oral hypoxia-inducible factor prolyl hydroxylase inhibitor designed to treat anemia due to chronic kidney disease (CKD).

How the Company Makes Money

Akebia Therapeutics makes money through the development and commercialization of pharmaceutical products for kidney-related conditions. The company's revenue model is primarily based on product sales, licensing agreements, and collaboration partnerships. Akebia generates revenue from sales of its approved therapies and through strategic partnerships with other pharmaceutical companies, which may include milestone payments and royalties. These partnerships help in the co-development, marketing, and distribution of its products, significantly contributing to its revenue streams. The company's financial performance is influenced by the regulatory approval of its products, market demand, and the competitive landscape in the biopharmaceutical industry.

Akebia Therapeutics Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Akebia Therapeutics is facing financial challenges across all aspects of its financial statements. Revenue and profitability are declining, leverage is high, and cash flow is negative, posing risks to financial stability. The company needs to address these issues to improve its financial health.

Income Statement

Akebia Therapeutics shows a declining revenue trend with a significant reduction from previous years. Gross Profit Margin has improved, but the company remains unprofitable with negative Net Profit Margin and EBIT Margin. Overall, the income statement highlights ongoing challenges in achieving profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals high leverage with negative stockholders' equity, indicating financial instability. The Debt-to-Equity Ratio is not calculable due to negative equity, and the company has been unable to maintain a positive Return on Equity. Equity Ratio is negative, suggesting more liabilities than assets.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow remains negative, reflecting ongoing operational cash burn. Free Cash Flow is also negative, although there is some improvement in reducing cash outflows. However, the company's ability to generate cash remains a concern, affecting overall financial health.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	203.73M	160.18M	194.62M	292.60M	213.58M	295.31M
Gross Profit	151.66M	97.00M	120.47M	207.81M	60.18M	-601.00K
EBITDA	11.01M	-13.72M	-6.87M	-43.26M	-225.96M	-341.00M
Net Income	-36.48M	-69.41M	-51.92M	-106.01M	-244.87M	-349.87M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	345.60M	220.67M	241.70M	351.83M	525.55M	644.14M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	137.31M	51.87M	42.92M	90.47M	149.80M	268.69M
Total Debt	53.36M	47.64M	104.18M	99.78M	136.05M	126.28M
Total Liabilities	316.37M	269.86M	272.29M	342.49M	449.09M	396.52M
Stockholders Equity	29.22M	-49.19M	-30.58M	9.34M	76.46M	247.62M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-2.52M	-40.69M	-23.38M	-73.27M	-253.02M	-110.70M
Operating Cash Flow	-2.40M	-40.66M	-23.38M	-73.15M	-252.97M	-110.39M
Investing Cash Flow	24.00K	-33.00K	0.00	-114.00K	39.94M	-40.00M
Financing Cash Flow	100.21M	49.66M	-25.21M	14.60M	133.73M	231.72M

Akebia Therapeutics Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 3.11
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AKBA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.11 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.23, below the 50-day MA of 3.54, and above the 200-day MA of 2.57, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.13 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 41.91 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 43.14 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AKBA.

Akebia Therapeutics Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TBPH	66 Neutral	$699.01M	59.17	6.23%	―	24.49%	―
RLAY	55 Neutral	$618.96M	―	-46.24%	―	-76.27%	22.77%
SAGE	54 Neutral		―		―	-27.59%	34.00%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.33	-41.57%	2.23%	23.26%	-2.03%
AKBA	49 Neutral	$832.56M	―	91.25%	―	16.75%	14.72%
OPT	39 Underperform	$483.64M	―		―	-80.09%	60.25%
COGT	37 Underperform	$1.69B	―	-107.55%	―	―	2.25%

Akebia Therapeutics Corporate Events

Akebia Therapeutics Announces Public Offering Pricing

On March 19, 2025, Akebia Therapeutics announced the pricing of its public offering of 25 million shares of common stock at $2.00 per share, aiming to raise approximately $50 million before expenses. The offering, managed by Leerink Partners and Piper Sandler, is expected to close on March 21, 2025, and includes an option for underwriters to purchase an additional 3.75 million shares. Akebia anticipates net proceeds of $46.5 million, which could increase to $53.6 million if the additional shares are fully purchased, supporting its goal of achieving profitability.