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Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA)
:AKBA
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Akebia Therapeutics
(NASDAQ:AKBA)
Rating:49Neutral
Price Target:―
Positive Factors
Market expansion opportunities
The CKD non-dialysis segment represents a sizeable potential label expansion opportunity for Vafseo, which could double its current total addressable market.
Product uptake and market penetration
Approved product VAFSEO, indicated for the treatment of anemia due to chronic kidney disease in adults receiving dialysis, continues to gain uptake among dialysis organizations.
Revenue and financial performance
Akebia reported total revenues of approximately $57 million, which were significantly above consensus and management's estimates, driven by a strong start for the Vafseo product launch.
Negative Factors
Operational challenges
Early implementation hurdles for Vafseo are expected and have been primarily logistical, with pharmacy distribution issues being the main barrier.
Product competition and market challenges
Auryxia is forecast to face generic entry post-March 2025 IP expiry, which could lead to a decline, despite strategic contracting efforts.
Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.04B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)5.08M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.39
Revenue Growth-17.75%
EPS Growth-19.17%
CountryUS
Employees181
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength42
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.03
Shares Outstanding262,635,830
10 Day Avg. Volume6,388,477
30 Day Avg. Volume5,082,149
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.12
Price to Book (P/B)-8.19
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio-12.27
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$6.75Price Target Upside70.03% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
Akebia Therapeutics Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAkebia Therapeutics, Inc. (AKBA) is a biopharmaceutical company that focuses on the development and commercialization of therapeutics for patients with kidney disease. The company operates primarily in the healthcare sector, targeting the nephrology space. Akebia's core products include vadadustat, an oral hypoxia-inducible factor prolyl hydroxylase inhibitor designed to treat anemia due to chronic kidney disease (CKD).
How the Company Makes MoneyAkebia Therapeutics makes money through the development and commercialization of pharmaceutical products for kidney-related conditions. The company's revenue model is primarily based on product sales, licensing agreements, and collaboration partnerships. Akebia generates revenue from sales of its approved therapies and through strategic partnerships with other pharmaceutical companies, which may include milestone payments and royalties. These partnerships help in the co-development, marketing, and distribution of its products, significantly contributing to its revenue streams. The company's financial performance is influenced by the regulatory approval of its products, market demand, and the competitive landscape in the biopharmaceutical industry.
Akebia Therapeutics Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: 61.38%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call demonstrates strong early success with Vafseo's launch, exceeding expectations and showing promising trends in prescriptions and financials. While there are concerns about potential generic competition for Auryxia and slower integration with large dialysis organizations, the overall performance and future prospects are encouraging.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Vafseo Launch
Vafseo's US net product revenues reached $12 million, exceeding the guidance of $10 million to $11 million. The launch is described as one of the strongest in the dialysis market, with nearly 100% coverage from commercial contracts with dialysis organizations.
Increased Prescriber Base
The number of prescribers increased by nearly 25% compared to February, ending the quarter with over 640 prescribers.
Positive Refill and Prescription Trends
Refills constituted about one third of all prescriptions in Q1, indicating patient retention. Prescriptions per provider increased to approximately 12 from nearly eight.
Financial Performance
Total revenues increased to $57.3 million in Q1 2025 from $32.6 million in Q1 2024, driven by Vafseo and a 43% increase in Auryxia sales.
Reduced Cost of Goods Sold
Cost of goods sold decreased to $7.6 million from $11.6 million despite higher sales, due to the elimination of a $9 million non-cash amortization charge.
Strong Cash Position
The company ended Q1 with $113.4 million in cash and cash equivalents, bolstered by a public offering raising over $46 million.
Progress in Clinical Studies
The VOICE study is 75% enrolled, targeting 2200 subjects, and the Phase III VALOR trial for non-dialysis patients is on track to begin in the second half of 2025.
Negative Updates
Auryxia Generic Competition
Auryxia lost IP exclusivity in March, and an authorized generic has entered the market. Future sales levels are uncertain due to potential additional generic competition.
Challenges with Large Dialysis Organizations
While the top five dialysis organizations have ordered Vafseo, revenue is primarily from small to mid-sized organizations. Integration with large organizations is progressing slower, with one planning a pilot in Q3.
Company Guidance
During Akebia's First Quarter 2025 financial results call, the company exceeded its US net product revenue guidance for Vafseo, reporting $12 million compared to the expected $10-$11 million. The call highlighted the strong performance in Vafseo's launch, with US net product revenue surpassing expectations and total revenues reaching $57.3 million, up from $32.6 million in the same period last year. The company's Chief Commercial Officer, Nick Grund, reported a 25% increase in the number of prescribers, ending the quarter with more than 640 prescribers and prescriptions per provider growing from nearly eight to approximately 12 by the end of March. They observed a 75% enrollment progress in the VOICE study targeting 2,200 subjects, and plans are on track to initiate the Phase III VALOR trial for non-dialysis patients by the second half of 2025. The company also maintained a solid financial position with $113.4 million in cash and cash equivalents and expressed confidence in achieving profitability based on the current operating plan.Akebia Therapeutics Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Akebia Therapeutics is facing financial challenges across all aspects of its financial statements. Revenue and profitability are declining, leverage is high, and cash flow is negative, posing risks to financial stability. The company needs to address these issues to improve its financial health.Income Statement
Akebia Therapeutics shows a declining revenue trend with a significant reduction from previous years. Gross Profit Margin has improved, but the company remains unprofitable with negative Net Profit Margin and EBIT Margin. Overall, the income statement highlights ongoing challenges in achieving profitability.40
Negative
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reveals high leverage with negative stockholders' equity, indicating financial instability. The Debt-to-Equity Ratio is not calculable due to negative equity, and the company has been unable to maintain a positive Return on Equity. Equity Ratio is negative, suggesting more liabilities than assets.35
Negative
Cash Flow
Operating cash flow remains negative, reflecting ongoing operational cash burn. Free Cash Flow is also negative, although there is some improvement in reducing cash outflows. However, the company's ability to generate cash remains a concern, affecting overall financial health.45
Neutral
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 160.18M | 194.62M | 292.60M | 213.58M | 295.31M | Gross Profit |
| 97.00M | 120.47M | 207.81M | 60.18M | -601.00K | EBIT |
| -50.47M | -46.26M | -63.18M | -265.32M | -376.44M | EBITDA |
| -13.72M | -6.87M | -43.26M | -225.96M | -341.00M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -69.41M | -51.92M | -106.01M | -244.87M | -349.87M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 51.87M | 42.92M | 90.47M | 149.80M | 268.69M | Total Assets |
| 220.67M | 241.70M | 351.83M | 525.55M | 644.14M | Total Debt |
| 3.55M | 104.18M | 99.78M | 136.05M | 126.28M | Net Debt |
| -48.32M | 61.26M | 9.32M | -13.75M | -102.41M | Total Liabilities |
| 269.86M | 272.29M | 342.49M | 449.09M | 396.52M | Stockholders Equity |
| -49.19M | -30.58M | 9.34M | 76.46M | 247.62M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| -40.69M | -23.38M | -73.27M | -253.02M | -110.70M | Operating Cash Flow |
| -40.66M | -23.38M | -73.15M | -252.97M | -110.39M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -33.00K | 0.00 | -114.00K | 39.94M | -40.00M | Financing Cash Flow |
| 49.66M | -25.21M | 14.60M | 133.73M | 231.72M |
Akebia Therapeutics Technical Analysis
Positive
3.97
Price Trends
2.43
Positive
2.25
Positive
1.95
Positive
Market Momentum
0.35
Negative
86.65
Negative
94.66
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AKBA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 3.97 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.95, above the 50-day MA of 2.43, and above the 200-day MA of 1.95, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.35 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 86.65 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 94.66 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AKBA.
Akebia Therapeutics Risk Analysis
Akebia Therapeutics disclosed 57 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Akebia Therapeutics reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 3 New Risks
1.
conditions. Any potential future impairment of property and equipment, our right-of-use assets or goodwill may significantly impact our results of operations and financial condition. Q4, 2024
2.
If we are unable to obtain or maintain marketing approval in jurisdictions outside the United States, we and our partners will not be able to market any product or product candidates outside of the United States. Q4, 2024
3.
Changes in U.S. and international trade policies, particularly with respect to China or Canada, may adversely impact our business and operating results. Q4, 2024
Akebia Therapeutics Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (54)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
56 Neutral | $576.06M | ― | -45.46% | ― | -78.26% | 15.41% | |
55 Neutral | $562.51M | ― | -31.46% | ― | 6.11% | -37.79% | |
54 Neutral | $5.31B | 3.29 | -45.39% | 2.79% | 16.77% | -0.07% | |
49 Neutral | $1.04B | ― | 91.25% | ― | -17.75% | -19.17% | |
45 Neutral | $424.57M | ― | -63.53% | ― | -47.94% | 30.94% | |
39 Underperform | $479.98M | ― | ― | -25.10% | -7.06% | ||
37 Underperform | $682.00M | ― | -84.04% | ― | ― | -2.53% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
AKBA
Akebia Therapeutics
3.97
2.88
264.22%
TBPH
Theravance Biopharma
11.25
2.55
29.31%
SAGE
SAGE Therapeutics
6.85
-4.05
-37.16%
COGT
Cogent Biosciences
6.80
-1.80
-20.93%
RLAY
Relay Therapeutics
3.36
-4.17
-55.38%
OPT
Opthea Limited Sponsored ADR
3.20
0.83
35.02%
Akebia Therapeutics Corporate Events
Private Placements and Financing
Akebia Therapeutics Announces Public Offering Pricing
Neutral
Mar 20, 2025
On March 19, 2025, Akebia Therapeutics announced the pricing of its public offering of 25 million shares of common stock at $2.00 per share, aiming to raise approximately $50 million before expenses. The offering, managed by Leerink Partners and Piper Sandler, is expected to close on March 21, 2025, and includes an option for underwriters to purchase an additional 3.75 million shares. Akebia anticipates net proceeds of $46.5 million, which could increase to $53.6 million if the additional shares are fully purchased, supporting its goal of achieving profitability.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.