Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA)
NASDAQ:AKBA
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Akebia Therapeutics
(NASDAQ:AKBA)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$1.00
▼(-28.57% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/23/26
The score is driven primarily by improving operating performance and strong TTM cash generation, partly offset by still-negative net profitability and only moderate balance-sheet strength. Technicals remain pressured with the stock below key longer-term moving averages and negative MACD. Valuation is less supportive due to losses (negative P/E) and no dividend signal. Earnings-call takeaways are mixed: Vafseo momentum and pipeline progress are positives, but Auryxia erosion, higher costs, and cash decline temper the near-term profile.
Positive Factors
Vafseo Commercial Momentum
Sustained quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year Vafseo growth with expanding prescriber count and strong first-refill adherence indicates durable product adoption in dialysis settings. Broader observed-dosing uptake reduces launch risk and underpins scalable recurring revenue over the next 2–6 months.
Negative Factors
Auryxia Generic Erosion
Permanent generic entry into Auryxia materially reduces a legacy revenue stream, shrinking predictable cash flow and increasing dependency on Vafseo and pipeline launches. This structural revenue loss forces reallocation of commercial resources and raises the bar for new product uptake to sustain corporate cash flow.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Vafseo Commercial Momentum
Sustained quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year Vafseo growth with expanding prescriber count and strong first-refill adherence indicates durable product adoption in dialysis settings. Broader observed-dosing uptake reduces launch risk and underpins scalable recurring revenue over the next 2–6 months.
Read all positive factors
Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$305.81M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)6.39M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.00
Revenue Growth25.69%
EPS Growth64.06%
CountryUS
Employees181
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength45
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.08
Shares Outstanding268,258,240
10 Day Avg. Volume7,605,801
30 Day Avg. Volume6,393,504
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.83
Price to Book (P/B)12.70
Price to Sales (P/S)1.75
P/FCF Ratio6.09
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.40
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.53
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.66
Enterprise Value/Ebitda-21.44
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$4.67Price Target Upside233.33% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.11
Revenue Forecast (FY)$217.59M
Akebia Therapeutics Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Akebia Therapeutics, Inc., established in 2007 and headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts, is a biopharmaceutical company focused on discovering and commercializing therapies for patients suffering from kidney diseases. The firm's leading exper...
How the Company Makes Money
Akebia makes money primarily through commercialization-related revenue from its kidney-disease products and through collaboration/partnering economics. Key revenue streams include: (1) Product sales: revenue from sales of Vafseo (vadadustat) in ma...
Akebia Therapeutics Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call highlights strong commercial momentum for Vafseo (32% revenue growth, ~60% patient growth quarter-over-quarter, higher prescriber engagement and improved adherence under observed dosing) and meaningful pipeline progress with supportive clinical data and upcoming readouts. However, legacy product Auryxia faces notable generic-driven revenue decline (≈-17%), the company swung to a net loss in the quarter, experienced sizable inventory write-downs and higher operating expenses, and cash declined q/q. While the launch and clinical developments are encouraging and provide a clear growth narrative, the near-term financial headwinds and competitive/enrollment risks temper the outlook.Positive Updates
Strong Vafseo Quarterly Revenue Growth
Vafseo net product revenues were $15.8M in Q1 2026 versus $12.0M in Q1 2025, a 32% year-over-year increase and the highest quarter of Vafseo revenue to date.
Negative Updates
Overall Revenue Decline
Total revenues were $53.5M in Q1 2026 versus $57.3M in Q1 2025, a decline of $3.8M or approximately -6.6% year-over-year, driven by lower Auryxia revenues despite higher Vafseo sales.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Vafseo Quarterly Revenue Growth
Vafseo net product revenues were $15.8M in Q1 2026 versus $12.0M in Q1 2025, a 32% year-over-year increase and the highest quarter of Vafseo revenue to date.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Akebia’s call guided to continued commercial and pipeline execution: Q1’26 total revenues were $53.5M with Vafseo net product revenue of $15.8M (highest quarter-to-date; +32% YoY from $12.0M) and Auryxia $36.2M (down from $43.8M), license/collab revenues $1.6M; Vafseo patients grew to nearly 7,500 (≈60% QoQ), ~1,025 prescribers (+28% vs Q4’25) with ~30% from non‑USRC dialysis organizations, ~2/3 of patients on 3x/week dosing and first‑refill adherence ≈86% (85–90% range); cash was $162.6M (vs $184.8M 12/31/25) and expected to fund operations ≥2 years; company expects TDAPA opportunity for the balance of 2026 and bundle entry planning for 2027, anticipates Auryxia revenues to decline in 2026, and reiterated pipeline milestones—VOCAL topline by year‑end 2026, VOICE early 2027, AKB‑9090 Phase I (up to 70 participants) topline early 2027, praliciguat Phase II targeting ~60 patients, and AKB‑097 Phase II basket to start H2’26 with initial data in 2027.Akebia Therapeutics Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
56
Neutral
Balance Sheet
48
Neutral
Cash Flow
72
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 232.40M | 236.20M | 160.18M | 194.62M | 292.48M | 211.65M |
| Gross Profit | 187.95M | 196.73M | 97.00M | 120.47M | 269.99M | 130.16M |
| EBITDA | -5.76M | 21.73M | -13.72M | -8.27M | 3.06M | -189.91M |
| Net Income | -20.51M | -5.34M | -69.41M | -51.92M | -94.23M | -282.02M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 362.52M | 376.56M | 220.67M | 241.70M | 356.05M | 529.35M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 162.64M | 184.84M | 51.87M | 42.92M | 90.47M | 149.80M |
| Total Debt | 12.49M | 216.30M | 188.73M | 104.18M | 99.78M | 189.13M |
| Total Liabilities | 335.14M | 343.95M | 269.86M | 272.29M | 350.82M | 455.34M |
| Stockholders Equity | 27.38M | 32.61M | -49.19M | -30.58M | 5.23M | 74.01M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 60.01M | 67.99M | -40.69M | -23.38M | -73.27M | -253.02M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 60.37M | 67.99M | -40.66M | -23.38M | -73.15M | -252.97M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -8.14M | -7.93M | -33.00K | 0.00 | -114.00K | 39.94M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.94M | 72.93M | 49.66M | -25.21M | 14.60M | 133.73M |
Akebia Therapeutics Technical Analysis
Neutral
1.40
Price Trends
1.15
Negative
1.25
Negative
1.66
Negative
Market Momentum
>-0.01
Negative
59.40
Neutral
78.17
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AKBA, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 1.4 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.99, above the 50-day MA of 1.15, and below the 200-day MA of 1.66, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.40 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 78.17 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AKBA.
Akebia Therapeutics Risk Analysis
Akebia Therapeutics disclosed 60 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Akebia Therapeutics reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Akebia Therapeutics Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $908.88M | 7.79 | 43.85% | ― | 68.20% | ― | |
60 Neutral | $5.46B | -37.91 | -25.99% | ― | ― | 54.61% | |
59 Neutral | $1.58B | -9.63 | -48.98% | ― | ― | 6.28% | |
58 Neutral | $1.69B | -3.20 | -53.31% | ― | 213.96% | 25.74% | |
55 Neutral | $305.81M | -14.79 | -62.72% | ― | 25.69% | 64.06% | |
51 Neutral | $7.86B | -0.30 | -43.30% | 2.27% | 22.53% | -2.21% | |
45 Neutral | $552.77M | -3.33 | 7.40% | ― | 190.52% | 12.60% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
AKBA
Akebia Therapeutics
1.14
-2.50
-68.68%
ORKA
Oruka Therapeutics
90.60
79.39
708.21%
TBPH
Theravance Biopharma
17.63
6.60
59.84%
VIR
Vir Biotechnology
10.03
4.99
99.01%
PROK
ProKidney
1.83
1.24
210.17%
AVBP
ArriVent BioPharma, Inc.
34.00
12.23
56.18%
Akebia Therapeutics Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Akebia Shareholders Approve Governance Measures and Share Increase
Positive
Jun 22, 2026
At its annual meeting of stockholders held on June 17, 2026, Akebia Therapeutics shareholders re-elected Adrian Adams, Michael Rogers and LeAnne M. Zumwalt as Class III directors, each to serve until the 2029 annual meeting, reinforcing continuity...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.