Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $366.21M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.85M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.25
• Revenue Growth: 32.49%
• EPS Growth: 65.88%
• Country: US
• Employees: 181
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): 0.00
• Shares Outstanding: 265,366,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,008,360
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,850,315
• PEG Ratio: -0.32
• Price to Book (P/B): -8.15
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.50
• P/FCF Ratio: -9.85
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.17
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.53
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.48
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 37.41
• 1Y Price Target: $5.67
• Price Target Upside: 323.13% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.12
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $293.02M

• Rating: 51 Neutral
• Price Target: $1.50 ▲(11.94% Upside)

The score is held back primarily by balance-sheet leverage and a still-fragile profitability track record, plus a clearly bearish technical trend. These are partially offset by improving TTM cash generation/operating performance and constructive earnings-call fundamentals around Vafseo uptake, with corporate updates adding both upside optionality and regulatory/strategy risk.

Positive Factors

Commercial traction of Vafseo

Strong early prescription momentum and expanding prescriber uptake indicate durable product-market fit within the dialysis ecosystem. This drives a recurring revenue base tied to chronic dialysis care, supports payer negotiations, and creates a foundation for sustained sales growth as access expands.

Improving cash generation and margins

Return to positive operating cash flow and strong gross margins materially improves financial flexibility. Sustainable cash generation funds commercialization and early pipeline work without immediate dilutive financing, reducing execution risk and enabling reinvestment in durable growth drivers.

Pipeline expansion into rare kidney diseases

Acquiring AKB-097 and advancing praliciguat diversifies reliance on Vafseo and targets higher-value rare kidney indications. Building a mid-stage rare disease franchise can create multiple long-term revenue streams and strategic optionality to leverage commercial infrastructure.

Negative Factors

High leverage and thin equity cushion

Elevated leverage and a historically thin/negative equity base constrain financial flexibility, increasing vulnerability to revenue volatility. High debt ratios raise refinancing and interest risks, limiting the company’s ability to fund trials, manufacturing scale-up, or opportunistic M&A without dilutive financing.

Regulatory setback limits label expansion

Failure to align with FDA on VALOR’s design removes a path to a much larger non-dialysis CKD market, materially constraining total addressable market expansion. This makes long-term growth more dependent on dialysis uptake and narrows strategic options for commercial scale.

Operational and adherence execution risks

Logistics, adherence and inventory transition issues can slow durable adoption among dialysis providers and patients. Persistent execution frictions reduce realized demand, strain provider relationships, and create revenue volatility that undermines predictable scaling of a chronic-care product.

Akebia Therapeutics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Akebia Therapeutics, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of therapeutics for patients with kidney diseases. The company's lead product investigational product candidate is vadadustat, an oral therapy, which is in Phase III development for the treatment of anemia due to chronic kidney disease (CKD) in dialysis-dependent and non-dialysis dependent adult patients. It also offers Auryxia, a ferric citrate that is used to control the serum phosphorus levels in adult patients with DD-CKD on dialysis; and the treatment of iron deficiency anemia in adult patients with CKD not on dialysis. Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. has collaboration agreements with Otsuka Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd. for the development and commercialization of vadadustat in the United States, the European Union, Russia, China, Australia, Canada, the Middle East, and other countries; and Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma Corporation for the development and commercialization of vadadustat in Japan and other Asian countries, as well as research and license agreement with Janssen Pharmaceutica NV for the development and commercialization of hypoxia-inducible factor prolyl hydroxylase targeted compounds worldwide. The company was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes Money

Akebia Therapeutics makes money through the development and commercialization of pharmaceutical products for kidney-related conditions. The company's revenue model is primarily based on product sales, licensing agreements, and collaboration partnerships. Akebia generates revenue from sales of its approved therapies and through strategic partnerships with other pharmaceutical companies, which may include milestone payments and royalties. These partnerships help in the co-development, marketing, and distribution of its products, significantly contributing to its revenue streams. The company's financial performance is influenced by the regulatory approval of its products, market demand, and the competitive landscape in the biopharmaceutical industry.

Akebia Therapeutics Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Akebia Therapeutics is facing financial challenges across all aspects of its financial statements. Revenue and profitability are declining, leverage is high, and cash flow is negative, posing risks to financial stability. The company needs to address these issues to improve its financial health.

Income Statement

Akebia Therapeutics shows a declining revenue trend with a significant reduction from previous years. Gross Profit Margin has improved, but the company remains unprofitable with negative Net Profit Margin and EBIT Margin. Overall, the income statement highlights ongoing challenges in achieving profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals high leverage with negative stockholders' equity, indicating financial instability. The Debt-to-Equity Ratio is not calculable due to negative equity, and the company has been unable to maintain a positive Return on Equity. Equity Ratio is negative, suggesting more liabilities than assets.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow remains negative, reflecting ongoing operational cash burn. Free Cash Flow is also negative, although there is some improvement in reducing cash outflows. However, the company's ability to generate cash remains a concern, affecting overall financial health.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	225.07M	160.18M	194.62M	292.48M	211.65M	294.64M
Gross Profit	177.46M	97.00M	120.47M	269.99M	130.16M	230.68M
EBITDA	21.23M	-13.72M	-8.27M	3.06M	-189.91M	-139.83M
Net Income	-15.90M	-69.41M	-51.92M	-94.23M	-282.02M	-384.84M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	364.15M	220.67M	241.70M	356.05M	529.35M	644.14M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	166.44M	51.87M	42.92M	90.47M	149.80M	269.08M
Total Debt	52.58M	188.73M	104.18M	99.78M	136.05M	126.28M
Total Liabilities	322.56M	269.86M	272.29M	350.82M	455.34M	396.52M
Stockholders Equity	41.59M	-49.19M	-30.58M	5.23M	74.01M	247.62M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	32.17M	-40.69M	-23.38M	-73.27M	-253.02M	-110.70M
Operating Cash Flow	32.40M	-40.66M	-23.38M	-73.15M	-252.97M	-110.39M
Investing Cash Flow	-51.00K	-33.00K	0.00	-114.00K	39.94M	-40.00M
Financing Cash Flow	100.10M	49.66M	-25.21M	14.60M	133.73M	231.72M

Akebia Therapeutics Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1.34
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AKBA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.34 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.55, below the 50-day MA of 1.63, and below the 200-day MA of 2.66, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.09 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 29.93 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.50 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AKBA.

Akebia Therapeutics Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TBPH	67 Neutral	$1.04B	35.75	14.03%	―	27.12%	―
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
AKBA	51 Neutral	$366.21M	-17.61	―	―	32.49%	65.88%
VIR	50 Neutral	$948.83M	-1.71	-49.06%	―	-78.55%	7.74%
PROK	48 Neutral	$685.90M	-4.00	―	―	―	2.35%
AVBP	45 Neutral	$927.59M	-5.17	-51.98%	―	―	-75.31%
ORKA	41 Neutral	$1.55B	-13.45	-23.05%	―	―	63.85%

Akebia Therapeutics Corporate Events

Akebia Therapeutics Outlines 2026 Vafseo Strategy and Pipeline

On January 12, 2026, Akebia Therapeutics announced corporate updates and a 2026 pipeline outlook that underscore its bid to make Vafseo a standard-of-care treatment for anemia due to chronic kidney disease in dialysis while building a broader rare kidney disease franchise. In 2025, the company secured broad prescribing access to roughly 275,000 dialysis patients, advanced large post-marketing trials such as the VOICE and VOCAL studies to compare Vafseo with erythropoietin stimulating agents, and increased Vafseo prescriber numbers and demand despite a Q4 2025 revenue impact from inventory adjustments tied to a new observed dosing protocol at U.S. Renal Care. Akebia expects Vafseo revenue growth to resume in the first quarter of 2026 as access, adherence and compliance improve, and is simultaneously progressing a mid-stage rare kidney disease pipeline, including dosing the first patient in a Phase 2 praliciguat trial for focal segmental glomerulosclerosis in December 2025, planning a Phase 2 basket study of AKB-097 in multiple complement-mediated kidney diseases from the second half of 2026 with initial data in 2027, and moving AKB-9090 into Phase 1 for acute kidney injury associated with cardiac surgery, positioning its revenue-generating products to fund pipeline expansion and potential long-term growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (AKBA) stock is a Buy with a $5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Akebia Therapeutics stock, see the AKBA Stock Forecast page.

Akebia Therapeutics Acquires Global Rights to ADX-097

On November 28, 2025, Akebia Therapeutics acquired the global rights to ADX-097, a clinical-stage development candidate from Q32 Bio, for the treatment of rare kidney diseases. This acquisition, along with the establishment of a rare kidney disease pipeline, marks a significant step for Akebia, as it plans to initiate Phase 2 trials for both ADX-097 and praliciguat in 2026, aiming to address unmet needs in rare kidney diseases and strengthen its market position.

The most recent analyst rating on (AKBA) stock is a Buy with a $6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Akebia Therapeutics stock, see the AKBA Stock Forecast page.

Akebia Therapeutics Amends License Agreement with MEDICE

On November 12, 2025, Akebia Therapeutics and MEDICE Arzneimittel Putter GmbH & Co. KG amended their existing license agreement, allowing MEDICE to manufacture Vafseo tablets for treating anemia in chronic kidney disease patients in Europe and certain other regions. This amendment includes Akebia supplying the drug substance vadadustat and retaining ownership of any intellectual property arising from the manufacturing process, potentially strengthening Akebia’s market position and operational capabilities in the nephrology sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (AKBA) stock is a Buy with a $6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Akebia Therapeutics stock, see the AKBA Stock Forecast page.

Akebia Therapeutics Halts VALOR Trial for Vadadustat

On October 28, 2025, Akebia Therapeutics announced that it will not proceed with the VALOR clinical trial for vadadustat, intended to treat anemia in late-stage CKD patients not on dialysis, due to a lack of alignment with the FDA on trial design. This decision means Akebia will not pursue a broader label for Vafseo in non-dialysis CKD patients, impacting its market strategy and potentially affecting stakeholders by focusing on smaller subgroups of CKD patients for future trials.

The most recent analyst rating on (AKBA) stock is a Buy with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Akebia Therapeutics stock, see the AKBA Stock Forecast page.