Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $329.05M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 3.08M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.29
• Revenue Growth: 32.49%
• EPS Growth: 65.88%
• Country: US
• Employees: 181
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -0.05
• Shares Outstanding: 265,366,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,346,781
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,076,269
• PEG Ratio: 0.82
• Price to Book (P/B): 12.70
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.75
• P/FCF Ratio: 6.09
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.63
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.88
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 1.05
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 10.76
• 1Y Price Target: $4.67
• Price Target Upside: 285.67% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): -0.02
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $242.73M

• Rating: 55 Neutral
• Price Target: $1.00 ▼(-17.36% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/26/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/26/26

AKBA scores mid-range primarily due to improving financial performance (operating profitability and strong positive free cash flow) and a generally positive earnings update with strong cash runway and commercial/pipeline progress. The score is held back by weak technicals (clear downtrend and negative momentum) and limited valuation support due to ongoing losses and no dividend.

Positive Factors

Cash generation

Sustained positive operating cash flow (~$68M TTM) and free cash flow (~$67.6M) materially reduce near-term financing risk. Durable cash generation funds commercialization, planned clinical programs and working capital, lowering dilution risk and supporting a multi-year operational runway.

Commercial traction in dialysis

Broad prescriber uptake (>1,000 prescribers) and access to ~290k dialysis patients indicate structural distribution and protocol adoption within the dialysis ecosystem. High observed-dosing adherence and steady prescriber additions create a durable revenue base as Vafseo integrates into clinic workflows.

Health-economic data and pipeline catalysts

Robust health-economic signals (lower hospitalization rates, ~ $3,700 per patient-year savings) provide payers/providers a durable adoption rationale. Coupled with planned VOCAL/VOICE readouts and mid-stage programs, these structural clinical and economic data can meaningfully support long-term uptake and reimbursement.

Negative Factors

Generic pressure on Auryxia

Anticipated generic competition will structurally erode Auryxia revenues in 2026, removing a legacy revenue pillar. This accelerates dependence on nascent Vafseo commercialization and pipeline milestones to replace lost cash flow, increasing execution risk during scaling and clinical readout periods.

Thin capital base despite improvement

While cash balances and zero reported debt improved liquidity, equity remains small versus total assets (~$32.6M vs ~$376.6M), leaving a thin capital buffer. Limited equity and historically volatile results reduce shock absorption and may constrain strategic flexibility if commercial or trial setbacks occur.

Flattening Vafseo demand / execution risk

Demand plateaued in H2 2025 and Q4 net revenue was modest versus market opportunity, reflecting execution and adoption challenges. Distribution shifts and inventory drawdowns compound scaling risk; without stronger protocol diffusion or published outcomes, revenue growth may remain constrained over the medium term.

Akebia Therapeutics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Akebia Therapeutics, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of therapeutics for patients with kidney diseases. The company's lead product investigational product candidate is vadadustat, an oral therapy, which is in Phase III development for the treatment of anemia due to chronic kidney disease (CKD) in dialysis-dependent and non-dialysis dependent adult patients. It also offers Auryxia, a ferric citrate that is used to control the serum phosphorus levels in adult patients with DD-CKD on dialysis; and the treatment of iron deficiency anemia in adult patients with CKD not on dialysis. Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. has collaboration agreements with Otsuka Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd. for the development and commercialization of vadadustat in the United States, the European Union, Russia, China, Australia, Canada, the Middle East, and other countries; and Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma Corporation for the development and commercialization of vadadustat in Japan and other Asian countries, as well as research and license agreement with Janssen Pharmaceutica NV for the development and commercialization of hypoxia-inducible factor prolyl hydroxylase targeted compounds worldwide. The company was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes Money

Akebia Therapeutics makes money through the development and commercialization of pharmaceutical products for kidney-related conditions. The company's revenue model is primarily based on product sales, licensing agreements, and collaboration partnerships. Akebia generates revenue from sales of its approved therapies and through strategic partnerships with other pharmaceutical companies, which may include milestone payments and royalties. These partnerships help in the co-development, marketing, and distribution of its products, significantly contributing to its revenue streams. The company's financial performance is influenced by the regulatory approval of its products, market demand, and the competitive landscape in the biopharmaceutical industry.

Akebia Therapeutics Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Turnaround signals are improving: TTM revenue rose to ~$236.2M with strong gross margin (~78.8%), operating profit turned positive (EBIT margin ~4.9%), and operating/free cash flow swung meaningfully positive (~$68.0M/~$67.6M). Offsetting this, net margin remains negative (~-7.1%), equity is still relatively thin (~$32.6M vs ~$376.6M assets), and results have been historically volatile.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) shows a meaningful profitability inflection: revenue increased to ~$236.2M (up ~4.9%) and operating profit turned positive (EBIT margin ~4.9%, EBITDA margin ~9.4%) versus sizable operating losses in 2024. Gross margin remains strong (~78.8%), supporting improved operating leverage. The key weakness is that bottom-line profitability is still slightly negative (net margin ~-7.1%), and the multi-year revenue path has been volatile (down in 2023 and 2024 before the TTM rebound).

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks improved in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) with positive equity (~$32.6M) and reported total debt at $0, which materially reduces financial risk versus prior years that carried meaningful debt and negative equity (2023–2024). Offsetting that, reported leverage indicators remain mixed (debt-to-equity still shown above 1x despite zero debt reported), and returns on equity are still negative in TTM (reflecting ongoing net losses). Overall, the direction is better, but the capital base remains relatively thin versus total assets (~$376.6M).

Cash Flow

Cash generation is the strongest pillar: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow is solid at ~$68.0M and free cash flow is also positive at ~$67.6M, a sharp reversal from negative operating and free cash flow in 2021–2024. Free cash flow growth is exceptionally strong off a depressed base. The main watch item is that net income is still slightly negative, so the quality of earnings remains in transition even though cash conversion is currently favorable.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	236.20M	160.18M	194.62M	292.48M	211.65M
Gross Profit	196.73M	97.00M	120.47M	269.99M	130.16M
EBITDA	23.50M	-13.72M	-8.27M	3.06M	-189.91M
Net Income	-5.34M	-69.41M	-51.92M	-94.23M	-282.02M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	376.56M	220.67M	241.70M	356.05M	529.35M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	184.84M	51.87M	42.92M	90.47M	149.80M
Total Debt	0.00	188.73M	104.18M	99.78M	136.05M
Total Liabilities	343.95M	269.86M	272.29M	350.82M	455.34M
Stockholders Equity	32.61M	-49.19M	-30.58M	5.23M	74.01M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	67.99M	-40.69M	-23.38M	-73.27M	-253.02M
Operating Cash Flow	67.99M	-40.66M	-23.38M	-73.15M	-252.97M
Investing Cash Flow	-7.93M	-33.00K	0.00	-114.00K	39.94M
Financing Cash Flow	72.93M	49.66M	-25.21M	14.60M	133.73M

Akebia Therapeutics Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 1.21
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AKBA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.21 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.34, below the 50-day MA of 1.45, and below the 200-day MA of 2.56, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.69 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.39 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AKBA.

Akebia Therapeutics Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TBPH	67 Neutral	$965.82M	33.88	14.03%	―	27.12%	―
VIR	63 Neutral	$1.32B	-3.16	-45.73%	―	-78.55%	7.74%
AKBA	55 Neutral	$329.05M	-15.90	―	―	32.49%	65.88%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
AVBP	45 Neutral	$961.86M	-5.50	-51.98%	―	―	-75.31%
PROK	44 Neutral	$673.87M	―	―	―	―	2.35%
ORKA	41 Neutral	$1.72B	-14.60	-23.05%	―	―	63.85%

Akebia Therapeutics Corporate Events

Akebia Therapeutics Updates Executive Severance and Leadership Terms

On January 27, 2026, Akebia Therapeutics signed a new 84‑month lease for approximately 43,474 square feet of combined office and laboratory space at 180 CityPoint in Waltham, Massachusetts, positioning the company to relocate its corporate headquarters from Cambridge around September 2026 as its current lease nears expiration. The deal, which includes starting annual rents of about $898,317 for office space and $1,046,920 for lab space with scheduled annual increases, a security deposit via letter of credit, and obligations for taxes and operating expenses, underscores Akebia’s long-term commitment to its operational footprint and lab capacity in the Boston biotech corridor. On January 28, 2026, Akebia also amended and restated executive severance agreements for President and CEO John P. Butler and CFO Erik J. Ostrowski, enhancing cash severance, COBRA reimbursement, and equity-vesting protections in the event of termination without cause, resignation for good reason, or a change in control, moves that bring the company’s executive employment terms closer to prevailing market practice and are likely aimed at leadership retention and stability during potential strategic transitions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AKBA) stock is a Buy with a $6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Akebia Therapeutics stock, see the AKBA Stock Forecast page.

Akebia Therapeutics Outlines 2026 Vafseo Strategy and Pipeline

On January 12, 2026, Akebia Therapeutics announced corporate updates and a 2026 pipeline outlook that underscore its bid to make Vafseo a standard-of-care treatment for anemia due to chronic kidney disease in dialysis while building a broader rare kidney disease franchise. In 2025, the company secured broad prescribing access to roughly 275,000 dialysis patients, advanced large post-marketing trials such as the VOICE and VOCAL studies to compare Vafseo with erythropoietin stimulating agents, and increased Vafseo prescriber numbers and demand despite a Q4 2025 revenue impact from inventory adjustments tied to a new observed dosing protocol at U.S. Renal Care. Akebia expects Vafseo revenue growth to resume in the first quarter of 2026 as access, adherence and compliance improve, and is simultaneously progressing a mid-stage rare kidney disease pipeline, including dosing the first patient in a Phase 2 praliciguat trial for focal segmental glomerulosclerosis in December 2025, planning a Phase 2 basket study of AKB-097 in multiple complement-mediated kidney diseases from the second half of 2026 with initial data in 2027, and moving AKB-9090 into Phase 1 for acute kidney injury associated with cardiac surgery, positioning its revenue-generating products to fund pipeline expansion and potential long-term growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (AKBA) stock is a Buy with a $5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Akebia Therapeutics stock, see the AKBA Stock Forecast page.

Akebia Therapeutics Acquires Global Rights to ADX-097

On November 28, 2025, Akebia Therapeutics acquired the global rights to ADX-097, a clinical-stage development candidate from Q32 Bio, for the treatment of rare kidney diseases. This acquisition, along with the establishment of a rare kidney disease pipeline, marks a significant step for Akebia, as it plans to initiate Phase 2 trials for both ADX-097 and praliciguat in 2026, aiming to address unmet needs in rare kidney diseases and strengthen its market position.

The most recent analyst rating on (AKBA) stock is a Buy with a $6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Akebia Therapeutics stock, see the AKBA Stock Forecast page.