Afya (AFYA)
NASDAQ:AFYA
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Afya
(NASDAQ:AFYA)
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Rating:80Outperform
Price Target:
$17.00
▲(13.33% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/01/26
AFYA scores well primarily due to strong profitability and improved leverage trends, supported by an attractive valuation (low P/E and solid dividend yield). Technicals are constructive with price above key moving averages and positive MACD. The latest earnings call is broadly positive (growth, cash generation, shareholder returns) but is moderated by guidance-implied margin compression and execution/regulatory and engagement-related risks.
Positive Factors
High Profitability Margins
Sustained high gross and EBITDA margins reflect durable pricing power and operating scalability in medical education and digital products. These margins provide a structural cushion to fund reinvestment, absorb policy or local cost shocks, and sustain cash returns to shareholders over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Planned Margin Compression
Management's multi-year investment push into continuing education and medical practice solutions will structurally lower near-term margins. If these initiatives take longer to monetize, they could compress profitability and slow return-on-invested-capital relative to historical levels for several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High Profitability Margins
Sustained high gross and EBITDA margins reflect durable pricing power and operating scalability in medical education and digital products. These margins provide a structural cushion to fund reinvestment, absorb policy or local cost shocks, and sustain cash returns to shareholders over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Afya (AFYA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.37B
Dividend Yield<0.01%
Average Volume (3M)78.52K
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.4
Beta (1Y)0.65
Revenue Growth3.48%
EPS Growth12.63%
CountryUS
Employees5,260
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryEducation & Training Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.45
Shares Outstanding51,293,550
10 Day Avg. Volume78,346
30 Day Avg. Volume78,516
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.63
Price to Book (P/B)1.57
Price to Sales (P/S)2.11
P/FCF Ratio7.37
Enterprise Value/Market Cap6.44
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.38
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.69
Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.59
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$16.33Price Target Upside8.89% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Sell
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)9.37
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.99B
Afya Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Afya Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates as a medical education group in Brazil. It offers educational products and services, including medical schools, medical residency preparatory courses, graduate courses, and other programs to lifelon...
How the Company Makes Money
Afya primarily makes money by charging tuition and education-related fees. Its main revenue stream is tuition from undergraduate medical education programs (medical school seats) delivered through its owned and operated institutions, typically und...
Afya Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 13, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a strongly positive operational and financial performance for 2025: solid revenue growth (+12% YoY), record-ish margins and profitability metrics, robust cash generation, conservative leverage (0.8x net debt/EBITDA), and an explicit capital return program (dividends and buybacks). Management is pivoting to multi-year investments to integrate products, deepen physician engagement and scale B2B/B2P monetization, which moderates near-term margins and introduces execution and timing risk (e.g., rebuilding Residency Journey, softer MAUs, regulatory uncertainty around ENAMED/ProFMed). Overall, the highlights (growth, cash generation, low leverage, shareholder returns, clear strategy) substantially outweigh the lowlights (segment softness, engagement dip, guidance margin compression and regulatory questions).Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Total revenue for the 12-month period grew 12% year-over-year to BRL 3.697 billion (2025 vs 2024), in line with the announced 2025 midpoint guidance and ~5x 2019 IPO revenue.
Negative Updates
Q4 and Segment Margin Pressure
Fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA margin declined 50 basis points year-over-year to 42.6%; company expects ~190 basis-point margin headwind in 2026 (midpoint) due to higher investments in Continuing Education and Medical Practice Solutions and a mix shift toward faster-growing, lower-margin segments.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth
Total revenue for the 12-month period grew 12% year-over-year to BRL 3.697 billion (2025 vs 2024), in line with the announced 2025 midpoint guidance and ~5x 2019 IPO revenue.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Afya guided 2026 consolidated revenue of BRL 3.95–4.10 billion and adjusted EBITDA of BRL 1.70–1.80 billion (excluding any acquisitions after guidance), implying a midpoint revenue of BRL 4.025 billion and midpoint EBITDA of BRL 1.75 billion (an implied margin of ~43.5%, roughly 190 bps below 2025’s 45.4%); CapEx is expected at BRL 340–380 million (about 8.6%–9.3% of revenue) as the company ramps investments in continuing education and medical practice solutions, and management does not expect a material ENAMED impact on 2026 guidance. For context and capital-allocation limits, Q4/2025 net debt was BRL 1.369 billion (net debt/2025 adjusted EBITDA 0.8x), 2025 free cash flow was BRL 1.056 billion, the firm announced a BRL 307.4 million cash dividend (BRL 3.45/share, 40% of 2025 net income) payable April 6, 2026, and ~60% of the current buyback authorization remains available through December 2026.Afya Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
68
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 3.62B | 3.30B | 2.88B | 2.33B | 1.72B |
| Gross Profit | 2.34B | 2.09B | 1.77B | 1.47B | 1.07B |
| EBITDA | 1.19B | 1.22B | 1.11B | 929.03M | 603.33M |
| Net Income | 737.68M | 631.51M | 386.32M | 373.57M | 223.33M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 9.35B | 8.83B | 7.58B | 7.20B | 6.45B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.12B | 911.01M | 553.03M | 1.09B | 748.56M |
| Total Debt | 3.12B | 3.17B | 2.68B | 2.71B | 2.16B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.46B | 4.52B | 3.94B | 3.95B | 3.45B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.85B | 4.27B | 3.60B | 3.20B | 2.95B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.04B | 1.04B | 798.20M | 546.88M | 354.07M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.20B | 1.43B | 1.04B | 843.90M | 630.87M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -498.11M | -1.09B | -1.14B | -591.47M | -1.27B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -489.20M | 23.97M | -439.94M | 92.94M | 364.68M |
Afya Technical Analysis
Positive
15.00
Price Trends
14.04
Positive
14.08
Positive
14.33
Positive
Market Momentum
0.38
Negative
63.59
Neutral
62.19
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AFYA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 15 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 14.58, above the 50-day MA of 14.04, and above the 200-day MA of 14.33, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.38 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.59 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 62.19 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AFYA.
Afya Risk Analysis
Afya disclosed 69 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Afya reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Afya Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $1.37B | 10.35 | 16.24% | <0.01% | 3.48% | 12.63% | |
75 Outperform | $1.84B | 14.05 | 7.66% | 2.99% | 3.74% | -8.40% | |
69 Neutral | $1.96B | 27.79 | 16.98% | ― | 14.05% | 51.96% | |
67 Neutral | $948.16M | -23.64 | -8.12% | ― | 8.10% | 43.35% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
60 Neutral | $625.59M | 227.74 | 1.74% | ― | 2.53% | 95.79% | |
55 Neutral | $1.16B | 77.54 | -5.25% | ― | -1.51% | 155.73% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
AFYA
Afya
15.07
-2.13
-12.38%
STRA
Strategic Education
81.19
6.15
8.20%
UTI
Universal Technical Institute
35.58
8.17
29.81%
DAO
Youdao
9.72
2.40
32.79%
COUR
Coursera
5.36
-1.49
-21.75%
UDMY
Udemy Inc
4.29
-1.83
-29.90%
Afya Corporate Events
Afya Posts Higher 2025 Revenue and Profit in Unaudited SEC Filing
Mar 12, 2026
On March 11, 2026, Afya Limited, a foreign private issuer listed in the United States, submitted a Form 6-K to the SEC containing its unaudited consolidated financial statements as of December 31, 2025 and 2024, and for the fiscal years 2023–...
Afya Approves R$307.4 Million Dividend Payout from 2025 Earnings
Mar 12, 2026
Afya Limited, the Brazilian medical education and medical practice solutions group, reported that its board approved a substantial cash dividend tied to its 2025 performance. The company, which runs a physician-focused ecosystem from training to p...
Afya Posts Strong 2025 Results, Boosts Shareholder Payouts and Raises Capital for Next Growth Cycle
Mar 12, 2026
Afya Limited, the Brazilian medical education and medical practice solutions group, reported another year of strong performance for 2025, with revenue rising 11.9% to R$3.70 billion and adjusted EBITDA up 15.4% to R$1.68 billion, lifting the margi...
Afya Expands Medical Seat Capacity With Abaetetuba Authorization
Feb 6, 2026
On February 6, 2026, Afya Limited announced that Brazil’s Ministry of Education authorized an increase of 63 medical seats at its ITPAC – Afya Abaetetuba campus in Pará, bringing that unit’s total to 113 seats. Because Afya ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.