Afya (AFYA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.30B
• Dividend Yield: <0.01%
• Average Volume (3M): 78.52K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.9
• Beta (1Y): 0.69
• Revenue Growth: 3.48%
• EPS Growth: 12.63%
• Country: US
• Employees: 5,260
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Education & Training Services
• EPS (TTM): 0.43
• Shares Outstanding: 46,894,950
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 78,346
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 78,516
• PEG Ratio: 0.63
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.57
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.11
• P/FCF Ratio: 7.37
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 6.72
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 2.35
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.64
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 5.52
• 1Y Price Target: $17.60
• Price Target Upside: 23.08% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): 9.35
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $3.99B

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: $15.00 ▲(4.90% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/14/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/14/26

AFYA’s score is driven mainly by strong profitability and a positive earnings outlook with solid growth and margins, supported by reasonable valuation. The main offset is weak technical momentum (below key moving averages and negative MACD) and signs of softer cash-flow conversion in the TTM financials.

Positive Factors

High Profitability and Margins

Sustainably high gross and net margins indicate strong pricing power and efficient delivery of medical education. Over the medium term this supports reinvestment in campuses and digital products, funds shareholder returns, and provides a margin buffer versus academic cycle volatility, improving long-term resilience.

Market Leadership & Seat Capacity

Full occupancy and growing approved medical seats reflect durable demand and regulatory-backed expansion, creating multi-year tuition visibility. Regulatory approvals are a structural barrier to entry, supporting steady enrollment-driven revenue and strengthening Afya's competitive position in Brazilian medical education.

Strong Cash Generation and Capital Returns

Record free cash flow provides structural capacity to fund organic expansion, digital investments, and shareholder returns (dividends and buybacks) without overly relying on external financing. Consistent FCF supports capital allocation flexibility and long-term strategic initiatives.

Negative Factors

Weaker Cash Conversion

A recent decline in FCF and lower operating-cash coverage signals working-capital or timing pressures. If persistent, weaker cash conversion could constrain reinvestment, reduce buffer for cyclical downturns, and force more cautious capital returns or additional external funding over the medium term.

User Losses in Key Digital Segments

Material declines in residency-program students and subscriber losses in clinical software show customer sensitivity to pricing and product fit. Structural weakness in recurring digital user metrics undermines growth visibility and cross-selling potential, risking future revenue diversification and margin expansion.

Meaningful Leverage Despite Improvement

Although leverage has trended down, a meaningful debt load remains. Ongoing interest costs and periodic financing needs could limit strategic flexibility, especially if growth requires capital or if cash conversion weakens, making disciplined liability management critical over the medium term.

Afya Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Afya Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates as a medical education group in Brazil. It offers educational products and services, including medical schools, medical residency preparatory courses, graduate courses, and other programs to lifelong medical learners enrolled across its distribution network, as well as to third-party medical schools. The company also provides digital health services, such as subscription-based mobile app and website portal that focuses on assisting health professionals and students with clinical decision-making through tools, such as medical calculators, charts, and updated content, as well as prescriptions, clinical scores, medical procedures and laboratory exams, and others. It offers health sciences courses, which comprise medicine, dentistry, nursing, radiology, psychology, pharmacy, physical education, physiotherapy, nutrition, and biomedicine; and degree programs and courses in other subjects and disciplines, including undergraduate and post graduate courses in business administration, accounting, law, civil engineering, industrial engineering, and pedagogy. In addition, the company provides medical postgraduate specialization programs; printed and digital content; and an online medical education platform and practical medical training services. As of December 31, 2021, it operated a network of 46 undergraduate and graduate medical school campuses consisted of 30 undergrad operating units and five approved units; and a network of 2,731 medical school seats that consisted of 2,481 operating seats and 278 approved seats. The company was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Nova Lima, Brazil.

How the Company Makes Money

Afya primarily makes money by charging tuition and education-related fees. Its main revenue stream is tuition from undergraduate medical education programs (medical school seats) delivered through its owned and operated institutions, typically under multi-year degree programs. A second set of revenue streams comes from post-graduate and continuing medical education, including specialization courses, preparatory programs, and other professional development offerings where learners pay course fees. Afya also generates revenue from digital and technology-enabled learning products (e.g., subscription or course-based content and platforms) sold to medical students and physicians, which can be monetized through recurring subscriptions and/or one-time course purchases depending on the product. Revenue is therefore driven by enrollment/seat capacity, student retention over multi-year programs, pricing (tuition levels), and demand for exam preparation and ongoing professional education; specific partner or contractual arrangements are null.

Afya Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability and improving returns (high gross/net margins; better ROE and leverage trend) support a solid score, but weaker recent cash-flow conversion and a TTM free-cash-flow decline temper the outlook.

Income Statement

TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) shows strong profitability with ~65% gross margin and ~20% net margin, alongside robust operating profitability (EBIT margin ~35% and EBITDA margin ~44%). Revenue growth accelerated sharply in TTM versus recent annual growth, and earnings expanded meaningfully from 2023–2025. Key watch-out: growth and profitability were less consistent earlier (notably the 2020 net margin was higher than later years), suggesting some margin normalization over time.

Balance Sheet

Leverage appears manageable with debt-to-equity improving to ~0.63 in TTM (down from ~0.74–0.85 in prior years), and equity has grown steadily. Returns on equity improved to ~16% in TTM versus low-double-digits historically, indicating stronger capital efficiency. Risk: the balance sheet still carries meaningful debt, and leverage had been higher in earlier years, so continued discipline matters.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is solid in absolute terms (TTM operating cash flow ~1.46B and free cash flow ~1.16B), and free cash flow has generally scaled over the last several years. However, TTM free cash flow declined (~-8% growth) and cash conversion weakened: free cash flow is ~80% of net income in TTM, and operating cash flow coverage fell below 1.0 in TTM (after being stronger in 2024). This points to more working-capital or timing pressure recently.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Mar 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.62B	3.30B	2.88B	2.33B	1.72B
Gross Profit	2.34B	2.09B	1.77B	1.47B	1.07B
EBITDA	1.19B	1.22B	1.11B	929.03M	603.33M
Net Income	737.68M	631.51M	386.32M	373.57M	223.33M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	9.35B	8.83B	7.58B	7.20B	6.45B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.12B	911.01M	553.03M	1.09B	748.56M
Total Debt	3.12B	3.17B	2.68B	2.71B	2.16B
Total Liabilities	4.46B	4.52B	3.94B	3.95B	3.45B
Stockholders Equity	4.85B	4.27B	3.60B	3.20B	2.95B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.04B	1.04B	798.20M	546.88M	354.07M
Operating Cash Flow	1.20B	1.43B	1.04B	843.90M	630.87M
Investing Cash Flow	-498.11M	-1.09B	-1.14B	-591.47M	-1.27B
Financing Cash Flow	-489.20M	23.97M	-439.94M	92.94M	364.68M

Afya Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 14.30
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AFYA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 14.3 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.79, below the 50-day MA of 14.42, and below the 200-day MA of 15.19, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.16 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.38 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 53.42 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AFYA.

Afya Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
STRA	75 Outperform	$1.83B	14.05	7.65%	2.99%	3.74%	-8.40%
AFYA	70 Outperform	$1.30B	10.85	16.20%	<0.01%	3.48%	12.63%
UTI	69 Neutral	$2.06B	27.79	16.98%	―	14.05%	51.96%
COUR	64 Neutral	$1.03B	-23.64	-8.12%	―	8.10%	43.35%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
UDMY	58 Neutral	$698.50M	227.74	1.74%	―	2.53%	95.79%
DAO	55 Neutral	$1.24B	77.54	-5.25%	―	-1.51%	155.73%

Afya Corporate Events

Afya Posts Higher 2025 Revenue and Profit in Unaudited SEC Filing

On March 11, 2026, Afya Limited, a foreign private issuer listed in the United States, submitted a Form 6-K to the SEC containing its unaudited consolidated financial statements as of December 31, 2025 and 2024, and for the fiscal years 2023–2025. The filing shows continued expansion, with total assets rising to R$9.36 billion in 2025 from R$8.83 billion in 2024 and revenue climbing to R$3.70 billion from R$3.30 billion, while net income attributable to shareholders increased to R$752.5 million, highlighting stronger profitability and a solid equity base despite higher finance expenses.

Afya’s balance sheet indicates improved liquidity, with cash and cash equivalents up to R$1.13 billion and current liabilities decreasing to R$884.0 million in 2025, contributing to a rise in total equity to R$4.89 billion. The results underscore Afya’s growing scale and operating efficiency in Brazil’s medical education sector and are likely to be closely watched by investors tracking the company’s leverage profile, earnings growth, and ability to sustain expansion in a competitive education market.

The most recent analyst rating on (AFYA) stock is a Hold with a $17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Afya stock, see the AFYA Stock Forecast page.

Afya Approves R$307.4 Million Dividend Payout from 2025 Earnings

Afya Limited, the Brazilian medical education and medical practice solutions group, reported that its board approved a substantial cash dividend tied to its 2025 performance. The company, which runs a physician-focused ecosystem from training to practice support, continues to leverage both dividends and share repurchases as key elements of its capital allocation strategy.

On March 12, 2026, Afya’s board authorized its second cash dividend, totaling R$307.4 million, equivalent to 40% of consolidated net income for 2025 and R$3.446838 per share, to be paid in U.S. dollars on April 6, 2026 to shareholders of record as of March 25, 2025. Management emphasized that, alongside an ongoing share buyback program active through December 2026, the company expects to return about half of its 2025 net income to investors, underscoring confidence in its balance sheet strength, long-term growth prospects, and commitment to shareholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (AFYA) stock is a Hold with a $17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Afya stock, see the AFYA Stock Forecast page.

Afya Posts Strong 2025 Results, Boosts Shareholder Payouts and Raises Capital for Next Growth Cycle

Afya Limited, the Brazilian medical education and medical practice solutions group, reported another year of strong performance for 2025, with revenue rising 11.9% to R$3.70 billion and adjusted EBITDA up 15.4% to R$1.68 billion, lifting the margin to 45.4%. Net income grew 18.4% to R$768.4 million, free cash flow hit a record R$1.06 billion, and the company closed the year with about 301,000 users in its ecosystem.

For the fourth quarter of 2025, Afya delivered 7.5% year-on-year revenue growth to R$913.0 million and a 13.7% rise in net income to R$175.4 million, while maintaining robust profitability despite a slight margin compression. Management highlighted that 2025 marked the seventh consecutive period of meeting or exceeding guidance, supported by strong growth in medical undergraduate programs, expanding continuing education and practice solutions, a new share buyback authorization of up to 4 million Class A shares, a declared 2025 dividend of R$307.4 million on March 12, 2026, and an October 2025 R$1.5 billion commercial notes issuance to fund its next growth phase.

The most recent analyst rating on (AFYA) stock is a Hold with a $17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Afya stock, see the AFYA Stock Forecast page.

Afya Expands Medical Seat Capacity With Abaetetuba Authorization

On February 6, 2026, Afya Limited announced that Brazil’s Ministry of Education authorized an increase of 63 medical seats at its ITPAC – Afya Abaetetuba campus in Pará, bringing that unit’s total to 113 seats. Because Afya Cametá, another approved but non-operating medical school in the same health region, will remain non-operational, the resulting capacity enabled regulators to approve the additional seats in Abaetetuba. With this expansion, Afya’s total approved medical seats rise to 3,766, reinforcing its strategy of consolidating its leadership in Brazilian medical education and expanding training capacity for future physicians, which may enhance its competitive positioning and long-term growth prospects in the sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (AFYA) stock is a Hold with a $17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Afya stock, see the AFYA Stock Forecast page.

Afya Limited Announces Upcoming Board of Directors Change

On December 17, 2025, Afya Limited announced that Mrs. Maria Tereza Azevedo will resign from the Board of Directors effective December 31, 2025. The company acknowledged her significant contributions and expressed gratitude for her service. Afya’s Board, composed of representatives from Bertelsmann SE&Co. KGaA, the Esteves family, and independent members, maintains a diverse skill set expected to continue strengthening the company’s governance and decision-making framework.

The most recent analyst rating on (AFYA) stock is a Buy with a $22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Afya stock, see the AFYA Stock Forecast page.