Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $34.70B
• Dividend Yield: 3.55%
• Average Volume (3M): 3.68M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 25.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.38
• Revenue Growth: -4.31%
• EPS Growth: -29.96%
• Country: US
• Employees: 42,383
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Agricultural Farm Products
• EPS (TTM): 0.87
• Shares Outstanding: 481,201,840
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,050,947
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,676,491
• PEG Ratio: -0.66
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.22
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.35
• P/FCF Ratio: 6.62
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.20
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.52
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 8.92
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 10.74
• 1Y Price Target: $60.50
• Price Target Upside: -16.11% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Sell
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): 3.98
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $85.99B

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: $76.00 ▲(5.38% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/12/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/12/26

ADM scores as moderately attractive: strong 2025 cash generation and improved leverage provide resilience, and the chart trend is positive. The score is held back by the sharp multi-year drop in earnings/margins and a relatively high P/E for a business facing ongoing segment headwinds and policy-driven uncertainty, despite management guiding to EPS improvement in 2026 and pursuing cost savings.

Positive Factors

Strong cash generation

Material free cash flow in 2025 provides durable internal funding for operations, capex and shareholder returns. Strong cash conversion in a cyclical agribusiness supports resilience through commodity cycles, enabling debt paydown and strategic investments without relying on external financing.

Improved leverage and balance sheet

Lower gross debt and improved debt-to-equity strengthen financial flexibility and reduce refinancing risk. A healthier balance sheet supports multi-year capex plans, dividend continuity, and the ability to absorb cyclical earnings volatility while pursuing strategic initiatives.

Scale, disciplined capital returns and capex plan

A long track record of dividend continuity plus explicit capex guidance signals disciplined capital allocation. Scale across origination, processing and ingredients combined with planned investments supports long-term growth in higher-margin nutrition and decarbonization platforms.

Negative Factors

Material earnings and margin deterioration

Multi-year decline in net income and compressed margins indicate structural pressure on profitability. Lower returns reduce internal ability to fund growth and weaken ROE, meaning management must restore margins or face prolonged lower value creation despite healthy cash flow.

Persistent segment-level weakness (crushing, AS&O, carbs)

Severe declines in crushing and trade/logistics profits hit core revenue pools. Because oilseeds and carbohydrate processing are large, sustained weakness there materially reduces overall earnings stability and limits upside from higher-margin nutrition segments until commodity spreads recover.

Dependence on external biofuel policy timing

Significant reliance on regulatory clarity (RVO/RINs) makes recovery timing uncertain. Policy-driven demand swings for ethanol and renewable diesel feedstocks create outsized sensitivity in margins, complicating multi-quarter planning and reducing visibility into near-to-medium-term earnings.

Archer Daniels Midland Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company procures, transports, stores, processes, and merchandises agricultural commodities, products, and ingredients in the United States, Switzerland, Cayman Islands, Brazil, Mexico, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Ag Services and Oilseeds, Carbohydrate Solutions, and Nutrition. It procures, stores, cleans, and transports agricultural raw materials, such as oilseeds, corn, wheat, milo, oats, and barley. The company also engages in the agricultural commodity and feed product import, export, and distribution; and structured trade finance activities. In addition, it offers vegetable oils and protein meals; ingredients for the food, feed, energy, and industrial customers; crude vegetable oils, salad oils, margarine, shortening, and other food products; and partially refined oils to produce biodiesel and glycols for use in chemicals, paints, and other industrial products. Further, the company provides peanuts, peanut-derived ingredients, and cotton cellulose pulp; sweeteners, corn and wheat starches, syrup, glucose, wheat flour, and dextrose; alcohol and other food and animal feed ingredients; ethyl alcohol and ethanol; corn gluten feed and meal; distillers' grains; and citric acids. Additionally, the company provides natural flavors, flavor systems, natural colors, proteins, emulsifiers, soluble fiber, polyols, hydrocolloids, and natural health and nutrition products, including probiotics, prebiotics, enzymes, and botanical extracts; and other specialty food and feed ingredients; edible beans; formula feeds, and animal health and nutrition products; and contract and private label pet treats and foods. It also offers futures commission merchant; commodity brokerage services; cash margins and securities pledged to commodity exchange clearinghouses; and cash pledged as security under certain insurance arrangements. The company was founded in 1902 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

How the Company Makes Money

ADM makes money primarily by buying crops and other agricultural inputs, processing them into higher-value products, and selling those products to food manufacturers, animal feed producers, industrial customers, and fuel markets, while also earning revenues from logistics and merchandising activities. Key revenue streams include: (1) Agricultural origination, merchandising, and logistics: ADM sources grains and oilseeds from farmers and commercial elevators, stores them, and moves them via its global transportation and export network. It sells these commodities to domestic and international buyers and earns margins driven by commodity merchandising, handling, storage, freight/logistics services, and price risk management activities tied to global supply-demand and arbitrage opportunities. (2) Oilseeds and related products: ADM crushes soybeans, canola/rapeseed, sunflower seed, and other oilseeds to produce vegetable oils and protein meals. Revenues come from selling oils (for food and industrial uses such as biodiesel/renewable diesel feedstocks, subject to market conditions) and meals (primarily for livestock and aquaculture feed), with profitability influenced by crush spreads (the relationship between input seed costs and output oil/meal prices). (3) Carbohydrate solutions: ADM processes corn and other grains into products such as sweeteners, starches, syrups, and ethanol. Revenues are generated by selling these ingredients into food and beverage, paper/packaging, and other industrial end markets, as well as selling ethanol and related co-products (e.g., distillers grains used for animal feed), with margins affected by the spread between grain input costs and prices of ethanol and co-products. (4) Nutrition and specialty ingredients: ADM sells higher-value ingredients and solutions used by food, beverage, and animal nutrition customers, including proteins, flavors, emulsifiers, and other specialty ingredient systems, typically earning revenue through ingredient sales and, where applicable, formulation and value-added solution offerings. Across these activities, ADM’s earnings are influenced by commodity price volatility, global trade flows, energy and biofuel demand, processing capacity utilization, and its ability to manage risk through hedging and integrated merchandising and logistics capabilities.

Archer Daniels Midland Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Cash flow is a clear strength (2025 operating cash flow $5.45B; free cash flow $4.20B) and leverage improved with debt down to $8.41B in 2025. Offsetting this, profitability and margins have weakened materially since 2022 (net income down to $1.08B in 2025) with multiple years of revenue decline, reducing earnings stability.

Income Statement

Profitability has weakened materially over the last three annual periods: net income fell from $4.34B (2022) to $1.08B (2025) and margins compressed (net margin ~4.3% in 2022 vs. ~1.3% in 2025). Revenue has also declined for three straight years (2023–2025), following strong growth in 2021–2022. The business remains profitable, but the trajectory shows meaningful cyclical/price-pressure headwinds and less earnings stability versus prior peaks.

Balance Sheet

Leverage looks manageable and improving: total debt declined to $8.41B in 2025 from $11.54B in 2024, and debt relative to equity improved to ~0.37 in 2025 (from ~0.52 in 2024). Equity is steady around $22–24B, supporting balance-sheet resilience. The main watch-out is reduced profitability translating into a lower return on equity (~4.7% in 2025 vs. ~14–18% in 2022–2023), which can limit value creation if the downcycle persists.

Cash Flow

Cash generation strengthened in 2025 with operating cash flow of $5.45B and free cash flow of $4.20B, a sharp improvement versus 2024 ($2.79B and $1.23B, respectively). Free cash flow remains solid relative to earnings in most years (e.g., ~0.77x of net income in 2025), supporting flexibility for debt reduction and shareholder returns. Weaknesses include volatility across the cycle (negative operating and free cash flow in 2020) and a free-cash-flow decline in 2025 versus 2024 (about -10.6%).

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	80.27B	85.53B	93.94B	101.56B	85.25B
Gross Profit	5.03B	5.78B	7.51B	7.57B	5.99B
EBITDA	3.05B	4.10B	6.00B	6.66B	4.57B
Net Income	1.08B	1.80B	3.48B	4.34B	2.71B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	34.66B	53.27B	54.63B	59.77B	56.14B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.05B	857.00M	1.37B	1.04B	943.00M
Total Debt	8.41B	11.54B	9.60B	10.29B	10.58B
Total Liabilities	11.63B	30.84B	30.17B	35.16B	33.37B
Stockholders Equity	22.73B	22.17B	24.13B	24.28B	22.48B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	4.20B	1.23B	2.97B	2.16B	5.43B
Operating Cash Flow	5.45B	2.79B	4.46B	3.48B	6.59B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.02B	-2.70B	-1.50B	-1.40B	-2.67B
Financing Cash Flow	-2.89B	-1.53B	-4.60B	-2.50B	-1.12B

Archer Daniels Midland Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 72.12
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ADM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 72.12 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 68.91, above the 50-day MA of 66.81, and above the 200-day MA of 59.42, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.35 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.09 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.41 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ADM.

Archer Daniels Midland Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CALM	86 Outperform	$4.13B	9.73	44.65%	10.53%	65.80%	197.95%
SFD	77 Outperform	$9.29B	9.27	―	4.44%	―	―
FDP	70 Outperform	$1.96B	18.92	4.53%	3.34%	1.11%	414.23%
ADM	66 Neutral	$34.70B	25.81	4.80%	3.55%	-4.31%	-29.96%
BG	64 Neutral	$24.37B	18.12	5.98%	3.14%	10.29%	17.32%
TSN	63 Neutral	$21.42B	59.42	1.10%	3.48%	2.12%	-40.75%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%

Archer Daniels Midland Corporate Events

ADM Expands Board, Appoints Michael McMurray Director

On March 9, 2026, Archer-Daniels-Midland increased its board size from 12 to 13 directors and elected former LyondellBasell executive vice president and CFO Michael C. McMurray as an independent director, effective immediately. He will serve until the next annual meeting and has been appointed to the Audit Committee and the Sustainability and Technology Committee, with compensation aligned to other non-employee directors.

ADM highlighted the move as part of its ongoing board refreshment strategy, emphasizing McMurray’s three decades of financial, strategic and industrial operations experience at LyondellBasell, Owens Corning and Royal Dutch Shell as well as his international business background. The appointment is intended to strengthen ADM’s governance, financial oversight and support for its growth and sustainability agenda, reinforcing its positioning as a leading player in global nutrition, agricultural supply chains and bio-based innovation.

The most recent analyst rating on (ADM) stock is a Hold with a $68.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Archer Daniels Midland stock, see the ADM Stock Forecast page.

ADM Settles SEC Case and DOJ Closes Probe

On January 27, 2026, ADM announced it had reached a settlement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission over its prior reporting of intersegment sales, agreeing to pay a $40 million civil penalty without admitting or denying wrongdoing, while stating the payment is not expected to materially affect its financial position. The Department of Justice has closed its related investigation with no further action, ending federal probes into ADM’s segment reporting practices; the company highlighted that earlier identified errors were limited to segment-level reporting with no impact on consolidated financial statements, and noted it has since restated relevant filings and made significant changes to its financial leadership and internal controls to strengthen financial reporting accuracy and transparency.

The most recent analyst rating on (ADM) stock is a Hold with a $61.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Archer Daniels Midland stock, see the ADM Stock Forecast page.