Abacus Global Management (ABX)
NYSE:ABX
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Abacus Global Management
(NYSE:ABX)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$8.50
▲(4.68% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/24/26
The score is held back primarily by weak cash generation (negative operating/free cash flow in 2023–2025) and moderate leverage, despite a meaningful rebound in 2025 profitability. Offsetting this, the latest earnings call was upbeat with growth guidance and operational momentum, while technicals and valuation appear neutral-to-mixed rather than strongly supportive.
Positive Factors
Strong revenue and margin recovery
Abacus delivered large, sustainable-like top-line and adjusted margin expansion in 2025, showing the platform can scale origination and asset-management fees. Durable higher margins and recurring fee mix improve cash earnings potential if revenue growth and realized gains persist.
Negative Factors
Weak cash generation
Persistent negative operating and free cash flow despite accounting profits suggests weak cash conversion. Over months this raises refinancing, liquidity and funding risk for originations, securitizations and shareholder returns unless cash conversion improves or external financing is reliably available.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong revenue and margin recovery
Abacus delivered large, sustainable-like top-line and adjusted margin expansion in 2025, showing the platform can scale origination and asset-management fees. Durable higher margins and recurring fee mix improve cash earnings potential if revenue growth and realized gains persist.
Read all positive factors
Abacus Global Management (ABX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$783.92M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)746.02K
Price to Earnings (P/E)22.5
Beta (1Y)0.48
Revenue Growth91.78%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees157
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Life
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.23
Shares Outstanding96,542,150
10 Day Avg. Volume728,407
30 Day Avg. Volume746,022
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.11
Price to Book (P/B)1.96
Price to Sales (P/S)3.49
P/FCF Ratio-30.89
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.59
Enterprise Value/Revenue5.31
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit7.38
Enterprise Value/Ebitda11.33
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$13.00Price Target Upside60.10% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)0.98
Revenue Forecast (FY)$286.18M
Abacus Global Management Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Abacus Global Management, Inc. operates as an alternative asset manager and market maker in the United States. It operates in five segments: Active Management, Originations, Asset Management, Portfolio Servicing, and Technology Services. The Activ...
Abacus Global Management Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 18, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized robust growth across revenue, adjusted profitability, capital deployment, AUM expansion and monetization of proprietary mortality data — supported by a clear multi-vertical strategy (origination, asset management, data/technology, wealth). Management provided optimistic 2026 guidance (adjusted net income $96M–$104M, implying ~up to 22% growth) and multi-year targets for substantial EBITDA and AUM expansion. Key risks noted on the call include sizeable long-term debt relative to cash, the gap between GAAP and adjusted metrics, quarter-to-quarter variability in realized spreads, and a market valuation/perception gap that management is actively addressing. On balance the strong operational and financial momentum, growth in recurring fee revenue, product traction (mVerify), and capital-return actions outweighed the listed challenges.Positive Updates
Consistent Outperformance and Track Record
Eleven consecutive quarters beating consensus; tripled adjusted net income and adjusted EBITDA over the multi-quarter span; expanded margins cited from 48% to 60%; ROE and ROIC consistently at or above 20%.
Negative Updates
High Leverage and Limited Cash Cushion
As of 12/31/2025 cash and cash equivalents were $38.1 million versus long-term debt of $405.8 million, leaving relatively thin near-term liquidity headroom relative to debt.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Consistent Outperformance and Track Record
Eleven consecutive quarters beating consensus; tripled adjusted net income and adjusted EBITDA over the multi-quarter span; expanded margins cited from 48% to 60%; ROE and ROIC consistently at or above 20%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Abacus initiated 2026 guidance for adjusted net income of $96–$104 million (implying up to ~22% growth vs. 2025 adjusted net income of $85.7M) and is targeting >$5.0 billion in fee-paying AUM by year-end 2026 with technology revenue >$3M for 2026; in 2025 the company reported revenue of $235.2M (Q4 $71.9M), adjusted EBITDA $132.6M (56% FY margin; Q4 adjusted EBITDA $38.6M, 54% quarter margin), management fees $33.8M on ~$3.3B fee-paying AUM, deployed capital $580.8M for the year (Q4 deployment $230.7M), holds 804 policies on the balance sheet valued at $469.8M, cash $38.1M, long-term debt $405.8M, and adjusted ROE/ROIC of 20%; operating KPIs include annualized portfolio turnover of 2.6x, average holding period for sold policies 116 days vs. 269 days for policies retained, average realized gain 27% in Q4 (32% FY), a 12% close rate on >10,000 reviewed policies, mVerify tracking ~3M lives (≈300% YoY growth) with 97% coverage and <1% error, nearly $250M paid to policyholders in 2025, an inaugural $50M securitization with plans to scale (H1 follow-up potentially $100M+), and longer-term milestones targeting 2028 EBITDA of $250M on ~$30B AUM (~50% margins, 60% recurring revenue) and 2030 EBITDA of ~$450M on ~$50B AUM (≈70% recurring revenue), with an ultimate ambition of ~$2.5B revenue, ~$1.5B EBITDA and ~$150B AUM.Abacus Global Management Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
60
Neutral
Cash Flow
28
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 235.24M | 111.92M | 66.40M | 44.71M | 22.59M |
| Gross Profit | 169.17M | 100.55M | 59.91M | 38.83M | 8.39M |
| EBITDA | 110.15M | 6.76M | 23.78M | 34.81M | 1.03M |
| Net Income | 36.53M | -23.96M | 9.52M | 31.68M | 997.41K |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 915.92M | 874.16M | 331.83M | 59.09M | 1.84M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | -384.62K | 131.94M | 27.84M | 30.05M | 102.42K |
| Total Debt | 411.18M | 385.91M | 141.74M | 28.33M | 1.05M |
| Total Liabilities | 478.70M | 450.87M | 167.76M | 30.95M | 1.07M |
| Stockholders Equity | 418.54M | 424.15M | 163.93M | 27.25M | 915.05K |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -26.61M | -209.62M | -64.71M | 10.61M | 1.12M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -25.68M | -208.81M | -64.52M | 10.69M | 1.34M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -23.28M | -4.96M | 2.24M | -3.70M | -241.53K |
| Financing Cash Flow | -44.87M | 320.12M | 57.82M | 22.96M | -354.58K |
Abacus Global Management Technical Analysis
Negative
8.12
Price Trends
8.71
Negative
8.20
Negative
6.94
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.28
Positive
41.84
Neutral
60.52
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ABX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 8.12 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.69, below the 50-day MA of 8.71, and above the 200-day MA of 6.94, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.28 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.84 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.52 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ABX.
Abacus Global Management Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $51.91M | 25.36 | 4.89% | 0.74% | 11.99% | ― | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
62 Neutral | $3.98B | 11.12 | 8.60% | 1.54% | -1.61% | 15.79% | |
60 Neutral | $783.92M | 22.51 | 8.49% | ― | 91.78% | ― | |
58 Neutral | $3.39B | 447.44 | 2.54% | ― | 1.41% | 150.35% | |
54 Neutral | $3.47B | 8.55 | 7.20% | ― | 27.71% | ― | |
52 Neutral | $269.61M | 16.59 | 6.43% | ― | -0.55% | -51.14% |
* Financial Sector Average
ABX
Abacus Global Management
8.12
0.27
3.44%
AAME
Atlantic American
2.55
1.17
84.42%
CIA
Citizens
5.36
1.16
27.62%
CNO
CNO Financial
42.25
5.05
13.56%
GNW
Genworth Financial
8.75
2.07
30.99%
BHF
Brighthouse Financial
60.73
10.23
20.26%
Abacus Global Management Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDelistings and Listing ChangesDividendsFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
Abacus Global Management Posts Strong Q4 Results, Issues Outlook
Positive
Mar 12, 2026
On March 12, 2026, Abacus Global Management reported that fourth quarter 2025 revenue rose 116% year over year to $71.9 million and full year 2025 revenue more than doubled to $235.2 million, driven largely by surging Life Solutions and Asset Mana...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Abacus Global Management Announces New Share Repurchase Program
Positive
Jan 30, 2026
On January 30, 2026, Abacus Global Management announced that its board of directors had approved a $20 million share repurchase program, effective immediately and running through May 6, 2027, as part of its capital allocation strategy. The buyback...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.