XPLR Infrastructure (XIFR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $804.39M
• Dividend Yield: 45.16%
• Average Volume (3M): 2.32M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.75
• Revenue Growth: -3.35%
• EPS Growth: -104.51%
• Country: US
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Utilities
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Independent Power Producers
• EPS (TTM): -0.10
• Shares Outstanding: 93,534,180
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,369,617
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,322,700
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.72
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): 0.80
• P/FCF Ratio: 1.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $12.96
• Price Target Upside: 50.70% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 13

Nextera Energy Partners faces significant challenges, including high leverage, declining profitability margins, and strategic uncertainties due to the suspension of distributions. Although the company has a strong asset base and growth potential, the negative technical indicators and valuation concerns weigh down the overall score.

Positive Factors

Asset Management

Management has described wind repowerings as NPV positive, extending asset life and cash flows.

Debt Management and Capital Structure

If executed according to plan, management's approach to upcoming CEPF buyouts could result in an improved and less complex capital structure.

M&A and Market Potential

M&A appetite for renewable portfolios remains strong despite IRA uncertainty, such that there is upside potential once CEPFs are addressed.

Negative Factors

Dividend and Investor Impact

The company's repositioning suspending distributions indefinitely is likely to lead to shareholder rotation and with the growth profile opaque through the end of the decade.

Financial Guidance

Current 2026 guidance implies CAFD declining from approximately $660 million to $450-500 million.

Strategic Uncertainty

Significant uncertainty around XPLR's longer-term strategy, growth potential, and functionality raises concerns.

XPLR Infrastructure Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Nextera Energy Partners (NEP) is a publicly traded company that specializes in the acquisition, ownership, and management of clean energy projects, primarily focusing on renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power. The company operates across the United States and Canada, leveraging its portfolio of contracted clean energy assets to deliver sustainable energy solutions. As a leader in the renewable energy sector, NEP is committed to expanding its footprint in the clean energy market and supporting the transition to a sustainable energy future.

How the Company Makes Money

Nextera Energy Partners generates revenue primarily through the sale of electricity produced from its portfolio of renewable energy assets, including wind and solar projects. The company enters into long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) with utilities and other energy consumers, which provide stable and predictable cash flows. These contracts typically include fixed pricing terms that ensure a steady revenue stream over the contract's duration. Additionally, NEP benefits from tax incentives and renewable energy credits, which enhance its financial performance. The company's strategic partnership with its affiliate, NextEra Energy Resources, allows it to leverage operational expertise and access to new project opportunities, further supporting its revenue growth and market expansion.

XPLR Infrastructure Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Nextera Energy Partners shows stable revenue growth and profitability with strong operating cash flow. However, challenges include declining gross profit margins and high leverage, indicating financial risks.

Income Statement

Nextera Energy Partners has shown a moderate revenue growth, with a recent increase from $1.078 billion to $1.154 billion in the TTM period. However, gross profit margin has decreased significantly from 51.76% in 2022 to 19.32% in the TTM, indicating potential cost pressures. The net profit margin improved slightly to 17.68% from 18.55% but is supported by a higher net income. EBIT and EBITDA margins have fluctuated, with EBIT margin improving to 2.34% in the TTM from negative figures previously, while EBITDA margin remains healthy at 47.56%.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a high debt-to-equity ratio due to substantial total debt of $5.174 billion against a lower stockholders' equity of $3.413 billion. Return on equity is positive, at 5.98% in the TTM, but this follows a period of negative equity. The equity ratio stands at 16.33% in the TTM, which suggests a low reliance on equity financing, introducing financial risk.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow is strong at $696 million, resulting in a favorable operating cash flow to net income ratio of 3.41. Free cash flow has turned positive to $302 million, recovering from negative values previously, indicating improved cash management. However, free cash flow to net income ratio is less robust at 1.48, showing room for further cash flow improvements.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020	Dec 2019
Income Statement		Total Revenue
1.15B	1.08B	1.21B	982.00M	917.00M	855.00M
	Gross Profit
223.00M	558.00M	640.00M	563.00M	554.00M	519.00M
	EBIT
27.00M	-28.00M	125.00M	234.00M	363.00M	233.00M
	EBITDA
549.00M	772.00M	545.00M	998.00M	342.00M	235.00M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
204.00M	200.00M	1.12B	424.00M	-238.00M	-404.00M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
301.00M	274.00M	235.00M	147.00M	108.00M	128.00M
	Total Assets
22.34B	22.51B	23.05B	18.95B	12.56B	12.26B
	Total Debt
6.29B	6.29B	5.29B	5.33B	3.39B	4.14B
	Net Debt
5.99B	6.01B	5.05B	5.18B	3.28B	4.02B
	Total Liabilities
8.36B	8.45B	8.27B	7.79B	4.86B	5.19B
	Stockholders Equity
3.56B	3.57B	-7.00M	-8.00M	-8.00M	-8.00M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
302.00M	-538.00M	586.00M	564.00M	331.00M	253.00M
	Operating Cash Flow
696.00M	731.00M	776.00M	677.00M	665.00M	346.00M
	Investing Cash Flow
1.49B	-194.00M	-1.19B	-2.30B	-681.00M	-2.35B
	Financing Cash Flow
-2.23B	-527.00M	551.00M	1.66B	-4.00M	1.97B

XPLR Infrastructure Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 8.60
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XIFR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 8.6 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.09, below the 50-day MA of 9.06, and below the 200-day MA of 18.42, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.10 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.20 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.77 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for XIFR.

XPLR Infrastructure Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
DUK	77 Outperform	$90.80B	20.56	9.10%	3.59%	4.46%	54.09%
AEP	73 Outperform	$54.24B	18.19	11.37%	3.57%	2.76%	31.53%
NEE	72 Outperform	$139.12B	20.03	14.24%	3.29%	26.91%	-6.43%
D	69 Neutral	$43.32B	20.85	7.91%	5.38%	-10.79%	18.04%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$11.76B	15.57	6.23%	4.62%	5.52%	-8.96%
SRE	64 Neutral	$41.66B	14.47	9.55%	3.93%	-18.00%	-7.54%
XIFR	47 Neutral	$804.39M	―	-0.27%	45.16%	-3.35%	-104.51%

XPLR Infrastructure Corporate Events

Nextera Energy Partners Rebrands Amid Strategic Changes

On January 27, 2025, Genesis Solar Funding, LLC, a subsidiary of XPLR Infrastructure, LP, entered into a second amendment with KKR Genesis TL Borrower LLC to extend buyout rights for Class B interests in Genesis Holdings until December 2034. This amendment is contingent on specific acquisition conditions being met and affects the allocation of cash flows depending on whether minimum buyouts are completed by set deadlines. Additionally, significant management changes took place at XPLR Infrastructure, including the resignation of key executives and the appointment of Alan Liu as CEO and Jessica Geoffroy as CFO, signaling a strategic repositioning of the company. The partnership also underwent a name change from NextEra Energy Partners, LP to XPLR Infrastructure, LP, effective January 23, 2025.