X4 Pharmaceuticals (XFOR) AI Stock Analysis

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X4 Pharmaceuticals

(NASDAQ:XFOR)

42Neutral

X4 Pharmaceuticals has potential due to its recent product launch and international partnerships. However, persistent financial challenges, bearish technical indicators, and negative earnings weigh heavily on the stock score. While strategic efforts and clinical trial advancements are promising, the company needs to overcome significant hurdles in profitability and market penetration.

Positive Factors

Commercialization

X4 entered into an exclusive licensing agreement with Norgine Pharmaceuticals for the commercialization of Xolremdi in Europe, Australia, and New Zealand, with potential E.U. approval in 1H26.

Earnings

The company reported total revenue of $1.4M, compared to the consensus estimate of $1.06M, and a net income of $0.20 per share, compared to the consensus estimated a net loss of $0.18 per share.

Strategic Partnerships

X4 is expected to receive an initial upfront payment of €28.5M and up to €226M in regulatory, commercial, and sales milestones from the agreement with Norgine.

Negative Factors

Challenges

The longer-than-expected time to diagnose and initiate therapy for new WHIM patients and the high commercial cost to onboard a patient are challenges faced by the company.

Financing

Despite the collaboration, additional capital is still considered necessary to provide sufficient runway to topline data from the P3 4WARD trial.

Market Adoption

Market adoption of the drug has not been as robust as expected.

X4 Pharmaceuticals (XFOR) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Market Cap

$40.29M

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)1.73M

Price to Earnings (P/E)―

Beta (1Y)2.38

Revenue GrowthN/A

EPS Growth69.37%

CountryUS

Employees143

SectorHealthcare

Sector Strength74

IndustryBiotechnology

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)-0.18

Shares Outstanding173,662,370

10 Day Avg. Volume1,880,610

30 Day Avg. Volume1,731,235

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)46.67

Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)-0.40

P/FCF Ratio0.00

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$2.70

Price Target Upside1185.71% Upside

Rating ConsensusStrong Buy

Number of Analyst Covering5

X4 Pharmaceuticals Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionX4 Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a late-stage clinical biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the research, development, and commercialization of novel therapeutics for the treatment of rare diseases. Its lead product candidate is mavorixafor, a small molecule inhibitor of the chemokine receptor C-X-C chemokine receptor type 4 (CXCR4), which is in Phase III clinical trial for the treatment of patients with warts, hypogammaglobulinemia, infections, and myelokathexis syndrome; and Phase Ib clinical trial to treat chronic neutropenia and Waldenström macroglobulinemia. The company is also developing X4P-002, a CXCR4 antagonist for the treatment of brain cancers; and X4P-003, a CXCR4 antagonist for the treatment of CXCR4 disorders and primary immunodeficiencies. It has a license agreement with Abbisko Therapeutics Co., Ltd. to develop, manufacture, and commercialize mavorixafor in combination with checkpoint inhibitors or other agents in oncology indications. The company was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts.

How the Company Makes MoneyX4 Pharmaceuticals generates revenue primarily through the development and commercialization of its pipeline of drug candidates. The company aims to bring its lead product, mavorixafor, to market, which is expected to be a key revenue driver upon approval. Revenue is also derived from strategic collaborations and partnerships with other pharmaceutical companies, which may include milestone payments, research funding, and royalties. Additionally, X4 may earn revenue through licensing agreements for its proprietary technologies and therapies. The company's focus on rare diseases often allows for orphan drug designations, which can provide market exclusivity and potential pricing power in niche markets.

X4 Pharmaceuticals Financial Statement Overview

Summary

X4 Pharmaceuticals faces significant challenges in achieving profitability and positive cash flow. While there are some indicators of improvement, such as a positive gross profit margin in 2024, the company struggles with consistent losses and substantial cash outflows. Its balance sheet shows a reasonable cash position, but declining stockholders' equity is a concern. The financial stability and future growth prospects are uncertain, requiring careful management and strategic planning.

Income Statement

Negative

X4 Pharmaceuticals has shown consistent losses over the years, with negative net income and EBIT margins. The revenue growth is minimal, only appearing in 2020 and 2024. Gross profit margin is positive in 2024, indicating some improvement. However, the overall profitability and revenue generation remain challenging.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

The company's debt-to-equity ratio is low due to minimal debt, and it maintains a reasonable equity ratio. However, the return on equity is negative due to consistent net losses. The balance sheet indicates a stable cash position but a significant decline in stockholders' equity over time, which is concerning.

Cash Flow

Negative

X4 Pharmaceuticals is experiencing substantial negative free cash flow, with declining operating cash flow. The cash flow ratios are weak due to negative net income. However, the company maintains positive financing cash flow, likely helping to manage its cash position.

TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
4.18M	2.56M	0.00	0.00	0.00	3.00M
	Gross Profit
3.56M	1.76M	-2.00M	-1.99M	-1.89M	3.00M
	EBIT
-25.89M	-36.40M	-107.52M	-87.57M	-85.11M	-59.87M
	EBITDA
-134.66M	-36.40M	-107.10M	-87.57M	-85.11M	-58.06M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-16.76M	-37.45M	-101.17M	-93.87M	-88.70M	-62.13M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
3.88M	102.06M	114.22M	121.72M	81.79M	78.71M
	Total Assets
10.97M	146.45M	147.26M	155.59M	117.18M	122.87M
	Total Debt
20.15M	2.66M	58.28M	38.42M	39.78M	38.45M
	Net Debt
16.28M	-53.04M	-40.94M	-83.30M	-42.00M	-40.26M
	Total Liabilities
32.98M	124.30M	96.16M	81.53M	52.76M	50.07M
	Stockholders Equity
-22.01M	22.15M	51.10M	74.05M	64.41M	72.80M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-125.97M	-131.23M	-96.57M	-77.20M	-71.52M	-60.18M
	Operating Cash Flow
-125.65M	-130.90M	-96.51M	-77.10M	-70.91M	-58.82M
	Investing Cash Flow
70.78M	66.99M	-14.88M	-103.00K	-615.00K	-1.36M
	Financing Cash Flow
20.26M	20.29M	88.52M	117.23M	74.25M	12.39M

X4 Pharmaceuticals Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price0.21

Price Trends

50DMA

0.38

Negative

100DMA

0.46

Negative

200DMA

0.55

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.05

Positive

RSI

28.20

Positive

STOCH

9.91

Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For XFOR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.21 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.26, below the 50-day MA of 0.38, and below the 200-day MA of 0.55, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.05 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 28.20 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 9.91 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for XFOR.

X4 Pharmaceuticals Risk Analysis

X4 Pharmaceuticals disclosed 64 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. X4 Pharmaceuticals reported the most risks in the “Tech & Innovation” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

X4 Pharmaceuticals Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (48)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VRTX	64 Neutral	$123.99B	―	-3.15%	―	11.64%	-114.72%
AGIO	56 Neutral	$1.51B	2.22	57.29%	―	36.07%	―
ALNY	50 Neutral	$31.64B	―	-414.62%	―	22.97%	38.54%
Sector *	48 Neutral	$6.36B	1.28	-45.04%	2.64%	19.24%	1.69%
CRSP	46 Neutral	$3.01B	―	-19.20%	―	-89.95%	-123.71%
XFOR	42 Neutral	$40.29M	―	-102.26%	―	―	69.37%
KPTI	36 Underperform	$35.60M	―	41.08%	―	-0.55%	49.85%

* Healthcare Sector Average

Performance Comparison

XFOR

X4 Pharmaceuticals

0.21

-1.13

-84.33%

ALNY

Alnylam Pharma

226.28

77.78

52.38%

VRTX

Vertex Pharmaceuticals

475.49

78.94

19.91%

AGIO

Agios Pharma

25.31

-4.20

-14.23%

KPTI

Karyopharm Therapeutics

3.99

-14.31

-78.20%

CRSP

Crispr Therapeutics AG

34.26

-26.41

-43.53%

X4 Pharmaceuticals Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date: Mar 25, 2025 | % Change Since: -30.00% | Next Earnings Date: May 8, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

X4 Pharmaceuticals showed strong progress with the launch of XOLREMDI and international expansion efforts. Positive clinical trial results and strategic restructuring indicate potential for future growth. However, the company faces challenges with net losses, market penetration, and adjustments in clinical trial protocols.

Highlights

Successful Launch of XOLREMDI

X4 Pharmaceuticals launched XOLREMDI for WHIM syndrome, achieving $2.5 million in sales despite only being on the market for 7.5 months since mid-May 2024.

Positive Phase 2 Clinical Trial Results

The Phase 2 trial for mavorixafor in chronic neutropenia showed that the drug was well tolerated and increased mean absolute neutrophil counts, reducing the use of G-CSF.

Progress in International Markets

X4 Pharmaceuticals expanded its reach with two international partnerships and had its MAA accepted by the EMA for mavorixafor.

Strategic Restructuring for Cost Efficiency

A strategic restructuring was implemented to decrease spending by $30 million to $35 million annually, focusing on maximizing the opportunity for mavorixafor in chronic neutropenia.

Lowlights

Net Loss Despite Revenue

X4 Pharmaceuticals reported a net loss of $37.5 million for 2024, even with revenue from the sale of a priority review voucher for $105 million.

Uncertainty and Challenges in Market Penetration

Despite positive developments, there are challenges in diagnosing WHIM syndrome and building demand for XOLREMDI, requiring extensive educational efforts.

Shift in Phase 3 Trial Protocol

The 4WARD Phase 3 trial protocol was adjusted to focus on patients with ANC below 1,000 cells per microliter, potentially affecting enrollment timelines.

Company Guidance

During the X4 Pharmaceuticals Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Financial and Operating Results Conference Call, key metrics highlighted included the 2024 XOLREMDI sales topping $2.5 million in the 7.5 months since its mid-May launch for the treatment of WHIM syndrome. The company engaged with top-tier immunologists and hematologists, with efforts expected to increase patient finding and prescription rates. The company reported net XOLREMDI revenues of $1.4 million for the fourth quarter and $2.6 million for the full year. Research and Development (R&D) expenditures were $21.7 million for Q4 and $81.6 million for the year, while Selling, General and Administrative (SG&A) expenses were $15.1 million for Q4 and $61.5 million for the year. The net loss was $39.8 million for Q4 and $37.5 million for the full year, noting a significant income from a priority review voucher sale. Moving forward, the company has refined its global pivotal Phase 3 CN trial protocol and aims for full enrollment by Q3 or Q4 2025, with top-line data expected in the second half of 2026. The company ended 2024 with nearly $103 million in cash and cash equivalents, projecting sufficient funds to support operations into the first half of 2026.

X4 Pharmaceuticals Corporate Events

Business Operations and Strategy

X4 Pharmaceuticals Announces Strategic Restructuring Plans

Negative

Feb 6, 2025

X4 Pharmaceuticals announced a strategic restructuring on February 6, 2025, involving a workforce reduction of approximately 30%, the closure of its Vienna facility, and a focus on advancing mavorixafor for chronic neutropenia. This restructuring aims to decrease annual spending by $30-35 million and extend the company’s cash runway into the first half of 2026, by streamlining operations to enhance the global market opportunity for mavorixafor.

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy

X4 Pharmaceuticals Partners with Norgine for Mavorixafor Expansion

Positive

Jan 13, 2025

X4 Pharmaceuticals has signed an exclusive licensing and supply agreement with Norgine to commercialize its product mavorixafor in Europe, Australia, and New Zealand. The deal, which includes an upfront payment of €28.5 million and potential milestone payments up to €226 million, allows Norgine to handle market access and commercialization, while X4 focuses on regulatory filings and the ongoing Phase 3 clinical trial. This strategic partnership aims to expand the availability of mavorixafor, a treatment for WHIM syndrome, to new territories and strengthen X4’s financial position.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.