Agios Pharma (AGIO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $1.84B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 696.29K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 2.8
• Beta (1Y): 1.86
• Revenue Growth: 36.07%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 488
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 78
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): 11.39
• Shares Outstanding: 57,296,165
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 716,714
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 696,290
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): 50.44
• Price to Cash Flow (P/CF): -3.50
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $56.17
• Price Target Upside: 75.64% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

Agios Pharma's stock reflects a cautious investment stance. The company has a strong balance sheet and promising growth prospects in the rare disease sector, as highlighted in the earnings call. However, ongoing operational inefficiencies, negative cash flows, and bearish technical indicators pose significant risks. The low P/E ratio suggests undervaluation, but the lack of dividend yield and limited revenue growth for PK deficiency warrant caution.

Positive Factors

Product Development

Mitapivat is viewed as a pipeline-in-a-product with potential for new and larger label expansions in thalassemia and sickle cell disease, creating a significant commercial advantage.

Regulatory Progress

Mitapivat's sNDA is under review with the FDA with a PDUFA date set, and launch preparation is ongoing.

Negative Factors

Safety Concerns

Concerns over hepatocellular injury have negatively impacted AGIO stock, which is down approximately 45% due to these issues observed in thalassemia patients.

Agios Pharma Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company, which engages in the discovery and development of novel investigational medicines to treat cancer and rare genetic diseases. It focuses on diseases that are directly caused by changes in genes or chromosomes, often passed from one generation to the next. The company was founded by Lewis Clayton Cantley, Tak W. Mak, Craig B. Thompson and Shin-Shan Michael Su on August 7, 2007 and is headquartered in Cambridge, MA.

How the Company Makes Money

Agios Pharmaceuticals primarily generates revenue through the commercialization of its proprietary pharmaceutical products. The company earns money by selling its approved drugs to healthcare providers, hospitals, and specialty pharmacies. Additionally, Agios engages in strategic collaborations and partnerships with other pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies to co-develop or license its therapies, which can result in milestone payments and royalties. These partnerships are significant as they provide additional financial resources and expertise to advance the development and distribution of Agios' products. Moreover, Agios invests in research and development to expand its product pipeline, aiming to introduce new therapies that can further enhance its revenue potential.

Agios Pharma Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Agios Pharma presents a mixed financial picture. While revenue improvements and a strong balance sheet provide a solid foundation, persistent operational losses and negative cash flows highlight underlying challenges. The focus should be on enhancing operational efficiency and cash generation to sustain growth and profitability in the long term.

Income Statement

Agios Pharma shows a challenging income statement with a substantial net profit margin improvement in the latest year due to a significant net income increase, likely from one-time events. However, EBIT and EBITDA margins remain deeply negative, indicating operational inefficiencies or high operating costs. The revenue growth is notable, but profitability remains a concern.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a strong equity base with a high equity ratio, indicating financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio is low, suggesting conservative leverage use. Despite low liabilities, the company holds a strong cash position, supporting its operational runway. However, consistent net losses could weaken equity over time.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow remains negative, though investing cash flows are positive, indicating strategic investments. Operating cash flow to net income ratio is concerning due to negative operating cash flows despite positive net income, suggesting non-recurring income sources. The company needs to improve cash generation from core operations.

Breakdown
Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
36.50M	26.82M	14.24M	0.00	203.20M
	Gross Profit
32.33M	17.32M	12.54M	-18.78M	200.39M
	EBIT
-425.74M	-391.49M	-389.05M	-378.42M	-316.15M
	EBITDA
-425.74M	-384.86M	-380.48M	-337.73M	-326.13M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
673.73M	-352.09M	-74.56M	1.60B	-335.22M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
893.71M	776.93M	1.10B	1.29B	670.54M
	Total Assets
1.66B	937.12M	1.24B	1.44B	852.95M
	Total Debt
56.99M	72.00M	85.66M	97.09M	105.20M
	Net Debt
-19.26M	-16.21M	-53.60M	-106.03M	-22.24M
	Total Liabilities
122.24M	126.10M	137.90M	145.76M	453.45M
	Stockholders Equity
1.54B	811.02M	1.10B	1.29B	399.50M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-391.53M	-297.06M	-314.36M	-413.06M	-305.67M
	Operating Cash Flow
-389.84M	-296.06M	-309.48M	-407.32M	-290.76M
	Investing Cash Flow
363.44M	239.57M	243.26M	1.25B	75.75M
	Financing Cash Flow
14.44M	5.43M	2.35M	-765.77M	261.52M

Agios Pharma Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 31.98
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AGIO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 31.98 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 33.69, below the 50-day MA of 33.70, and below the 200-day MA of 42.88, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.63 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.88 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.06 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AGIO.

Agios Pharma Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SRPT	69 Neutral	$9.77B	41.86	19.71%	―	52.97%	―
AGIO	56 Neutral	$1.84B	2.81	57.29%	―	36.07%	―
Sector *	49 Neutral	$6.90B	0.02	-54.05%	2.46%	24.91%	-3.14%
RGNX	46 Neutral	$302.72M	―	-71.87%	―	-15.14%	15.84%
BLUE	42 Neutral	$38.57M	―	-270.20%	―	144.50%	-141.91%
FATE	42 Neutral	$110.00M	―	-54.21%	―	-78.55%	-0.92%

Agios Pharma Corporate Events

Agios Pharma Board Member Announces Resignation

On February 10, 2025, Dr. David P. Schenkein announced his resignation from the Board of Directors of Agios Pharmaceuticals, effective February 28, 2025. Despite stepping down from the Board and its Science and Technology Committee, Dr. Schenkein will continue to play a strategic advisory role, aiding the company’s leadership in advancing clinical development programs.

Agios Pharma Sets Milestones for Rare Disease Growth

Agios Pharmaceuticals announced key milestones for 2025, showcasing its strong position in advancing its rare disease portfolio, especially with its drug PYRUKYND. The company plans to launch two commercial products over the next two years and continue to solidify its pipeline, backed by a robust financial position and strategic partnerships. Anticipated milestones include FDA decisions for PYRUKYND in thalassemia, potential U.S. commercial launch plans for sickle cell disease treatments, and significant clinical studies across their pipeline, reflecting their commitment to growth and innovation in the rare disease sector.