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Vornado Realty (VNO)
NYSE:VNO

Vornado Realty (VNO) AI Stock Analysis

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VNO

Vornado Realty

(NYSE:VNO)

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Neutral 58 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:58Neutral
Price Target:
$35.00
▲(4.20% Upside)
The score is held back primarily by negative TTM operating/free cash flow and elevated leverage despite profitability improvements. Valuation is a notable positive (low P/E), while technicals remain weak-to-neutral. Earnings call commentary and recent financing actions support the outlook via stronger liquidity and leasing progress, but near-term FFO growth is expected to be flat and retail/litigation risks persist.
Positive Factors
Manhattan leasing strength
Sustained, high-volume leasing in Manhattan and rising starting rents indicate structural demand for Vornado's core assets. This drives durable cash rent growth, improves occupancy and strengthens long-term rental income and asset valuations across its premium NYC portfolio.
Improved liquidity and debt reduction
Material liquidity build and meaningful debt paydown reduce near-term refinancing risk and provide funding capacity for development or lease-up periods. Improved covenant headroom and cash balances enhance balance-sheet flexibility over the medium term.
PENN District development progress
Progress on PENN projects and steady lease-up create a multi-year earnings catalyst as new income ramps. Successful redevelopments and signage advantages in the district support durable yield expansion and long-term FFO upside once stabilized.
Negative Factors
Negative operating and free cash flow
Sustained negative OCF and FCF undermine self-funding ability for capex, development and dividends, forcing reliance on external financing or asset sales. Over months this strains liquidity dynamics and increases sensitivity to credit markets.
Elevated leverage
Historically high leverage limits financial flexibility, raises interest expense sensitivity, and increases refinancing risk. Even with improvements, elevated leverage constrains capital allocation and heightens vulnerability to rising rates or slower leasing cycles.
Retail impairments & legal uncertainty
Retail asset write-offs and litigation introduce lasting cash-flow volatility and valuation uncertainty on noncore holdings. Prolonged redevelopment timelines and legal disputes can delay income recovery and divert management focus and capital from core office redevelopment.

Vornado Realty (VNO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Vornado Realty Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionVornado's portfolio is concentrated in the nation's key market New York City along with the premier asset in both Chicago and San Francisco. Vornado is also the real estate industry leader in sustainability policy. The company owns and manages over 23 million square feet of LEED certified buildings and received the Energy Star Partner of the Year Award, Sustained Excellence 2019. In 2012, Vornado commemorated 50 years on the NYSE.
How the Company Makes MoneyVornado Realty generates revenue primarily through leasing its commercial and residential properties to tenants, which provides a steady stream of rental income. The company also earns money through property management and development activities, including renovation and construction projects that enhance property value. Additionally, Vornado may engage in strategic partnerships and joint ventures to maximize returns on its investments. The firm benefits from long-term leases, which provide predictable cash flows, and its focus on prime locations attracts high-profile tenants, contributing to its overall financial performance.

Vornado Realty Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 03, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 16, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call emphasized strong leasing activity, especially in Manhattan, and significant progress in the PENN District, which are seen as major positive developments. However, challenges in retail and flat FFO growth expectations for 2026, along with litigation uncertainties, present notable concerns.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Leasing Activity in Manhattan
Vornado leased 3.7 million square feet in the first 9 months of 2025, with 2.8 million square feet in Manhattan office, achieving the highest average starting rents in the city at $103 per square foot. Mark-to-markets were up 15.7% GAAP and 10.4% cash.
PENN District Progress
PENN 2 is at 78% occupancy with expectations to exceed 80% by year-end. Over 1.3 million square feet have been leased since project inception. The projected incremental cash yield is set to increase from 10.2% at year-end.
Improved Balance Sheet
Net debt-to-EBITDA ratio improved to 7.3x from 8.6x at the start of the year, and immediate liquidity stands at $2.6 billion. Cash balances increased by $500 million, and $900 million in debt was paid down.
Record Signage Revenue
Signage revenue for 2025 is projected to be the highest ever, driven by ownership of all signs in the PENN District and strategic advantages in Times Square.
Negative Updates
Challenges in Retail Sector
The retail apocalypse and pandemic led to asset impairment at 650 Madison Avenue, resulting in a total write-off of the asset to zero.
Flat FFO Growth Expected in 2026
2026 comparable FFO is expected to be flattish compared to 2025 due to noncore asset sales and income offline for retail redevelopment, with significant earnings growth anticipated in 2027.
Litigation and Uncertainty
A recent court ruling vacated the arbitration panel's rent reset for a ground lease, introducing uncertainty into previously known figures.
Company Guidance
During the Vornado Realty Trust Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, management provided detailed guidance and metrics highlighting the company's strong performance and optimistic outlook. The company's net debt-to-EBITDA ratio improved to 7.3x, and immediate liquidity was reported at $2.6 billion. Vornado's Manhattan office leasing volume is expected to be the highest in over a decade, with 3.7 million square feet leased in the first nine months of 2025. The average starting rents in Manhattan office were $99 per square foot, excluding a significant lease with NYU. The company reported a robust third-quarter performance, with comparable FFO at $0.57 per share, up from $0.52 per share the previous year. Office occupancy increased to 88.4%, primarily due to leasing at PENN 2, which is on track to exceed 80% occupancy by year-end. The company also highlighted its strategic acquisition of 623 Fifth Avenue and anticipates a 9% yield on cost for the project. Management projected that 2027 would be an inflection year with significant earnings growth due to the lease-up of PENN 1 and PENN 2 and the impact of ongoing development projects.

Vornado Realty Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Vornado Realty shows strong profitability improvements in its income statement, with a high net profit margin. However, the balance sheet's high leverage and negative cash flow trends pose significant risks. Operational efficiency has improved, but liquidity and leverage issues need addressing for long-term stability.
Income Statement
65
Positive
Vornado Realty's income statement shows a strong improvement in profitability with a TTM net profit margin of 49.05%, significantly higher than previous years. The gross profit margin has also improved to 55.05% TTM. However, revenue growth has been inconsistent, with a notable decline in 2024. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have shown substantial improvement in the TTM period, indicating better operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The balance sheet reflects a high debt-to-equity ratio, peaking at 1.74 in 2024, which poses a risk. However, the TTM period shows a reduction in total debt, improving the debt-to-equity ratio to a more manageable level. Return on equity has improved significantly in the TTM period to 15.73%, indicating better returns for shareholders.
Cash Flow
40
Negative
Cash flow analysis reveals a concerning trend with negative operating and free cash flows in the TTM period, indicating potential liquidity issues. The free cash flow to net income ratio remains stable at 1.0, but the negative free cash flow growth rate in recent periods highlights cash management challenges.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.81B1.79B1.81B1.80B1.59B1.53B
Gross Profit1.81B1.79B906.00M926.08M791.89M738.88M
EBITDA1.78B880.61M845.61M423.31M840.50M203.52M
Net Income905.56M70.39M105.49M-346.50M176.00M-297.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets15.75B16.00B16.19B16.49B17.27B16.22B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.01B733.95M997.00M1.36B1.76B1.62B
Total Debt7.89B8.99B8.98B9.13B8.99B7.80B
Total Liabilities8.73B9.83B9.84B9.98B10.06B8.67B
Stockholders Equity6.07B5.16B5.51B5.84B6.24B6.53B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow1.32B537.72M648.15M795.94M761.81M29.19M
Operating Cash Flow1.32B537.72M648.15M798.94M761.81M424.24M
Investing Cash Flow98.24M-597.37M-128.79M-906.86M-532.35M-87.80M
Financing Cash Flow-1.29B-252.32M-278.94M-801.27M-29.48M-213.20M

Vornado Realty Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price33.59
Price Trends
50DMA
34.23
Negative
100DMA
36.62
Negative
200DMA
36.73
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.13
Negative
RSI
45.60
Neutral
STOCH
50.00
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VNO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 33.59 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 33.70, below the 50-day MA of 34.23, and below the 200-day MA of 36.73, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.13 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 45.60 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 50.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for VNO.

Vornado Realty Risk Analysis

Vornado Realty disclosed 42 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Vornado Realty reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Vornado Realty Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
71
Outperform
$4.57B14.125.94%5.75%0.77%62.58%
65
Neutral
$2.17B12.193.79%4.94%3.15%1.96%
65
Neutral
$2.95B23.245.37%7.83%-2.10%-13.30%
63
Neutral
$4.47B76.701.26%5.08%16.38%3.60%
59
Neutral
$11.56B-51.96-3.74%5.26%2.54%-155.17%
58
Neutral
$7.01B8.0015.97%2.24%2.41%
49
Neutral
$3.65B-14,566.670.61%6.95%8.60%
* Real Estate Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
VNO
Vornado Realty
33.59
-6.51
-16.23%
BXP
BXP
66.37
-3.35
-4.80%
CUZ
Cousins Properties
26.60
-2.20
-7.65%
HIW
Highwoods Properties
26.80
-1.49
-5.27%
KRC
Kilroy Realty
38.27
1.69
4.61%
SLG
SL Green Realty
48.07
-14.10
-22.68%

Vornado Realty Corporate Events

Private Placements and Financing
Vornado Realty Completes $500 Million Senior Notes Offering
Positive
Jan 14, 2026

On January 14, 2026, Vornado Realty L.P., the operating partnership of Vornado Realty Trust, completed an underwritten public offering of $500 million aggregate principal amount of 5.750% notes due 2033 under an effective shelf registration statement, reinforcing its access to public debt markets and providing long-term capital for its real estate operations. The transaction, underwritten by a syndicate led by BofA Securities, PNC Capital Markets, U.S. Bancorp Investments and Wells Fargo Securities, was supported by legal opinions from Sullivan & Cromwell LLP on the validity of the notes and from Venable LLP on matters relating to Vornado Realty Trust, underscoring the formalization and legal robustness of the financing move for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (VNO) stock is a Hold with a $36.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vornado Realty stock, see the VNO Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Vornado Realty Extends Debt Maturities and Boosts Liquidity
Positive
Jan 7, 2026

On January 7, 2026, Vornado Realty L.P. amended and extended one of its revolving credit facilities, pushing the fully extended maturity from December 2027 to February 2031 while reducing its borrowing capacity from $1.25 billion to $1.105 billion, and updated pricing tied to Term SOFR and modest sustainability-linked adjustments to interest and facility fees. On the same date, the partnership extended the maturity of its term loan from December 2027 to February 2031 and increased the loan size to $850 million, and also raised commitments on another unsecured revolving credit facility maturing in April 2029 from $915 million to $1.0 billion, while maintaining a framework of leverage, coverage and unsecured/secured debt covenants; these moves collectively extend its debt maturities, refine liquidity, and reinforce balance sheet discipline under customary default and covenant structures important to creditors and other financial stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (VNO) stock is a Hold with a $36.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vornado Realty stock, see the VNO Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jan 15, 2026